Supply Chain CH 5

If a tracking signal is positive, which one of the following is true?

actual value is higher than the forecast

t or f: If you felt that recent demand trends were more significant, and thus should be emphasized more in formulating a forecast, then in forecasting demand for the upcoming demand period, you would probably favor using a simple moving average over the conventional weighted moving average.

false

t or f: If you were calculating a forecast using an exponential smoothing model, a calculation using α = 0.2 would be putting a greater emphasis on recent data, while a calculation using α = 0.8 would be putting a greater emphasis on past data. Thus a lower α is more responsive to changes in demand in the most recent periods.

false

t or f: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) surveys more than 300 purchasing and supply executives in the United States using a questionnaire seeking information on "changes in production, new orders, new export orders, imports, employment, inventories, prices, lead-times, and the timeliness of supplier deliveries in their companies comparing the current month to the previous month." The ISM Report on Business focuses only on the manufacturing sector.

false

t or f: The modern day business environment must deal with a more homogenous consumer base, which has caused the evolution of a more "push" oriented environment where suppliers must focus on manufacturing high volumes of standardized goods.

false

t or f: The true value of CPFR comes from the sophisticated forecasting algorithms that provide companies with highly accurate forecasts, not from the exchange of forecasting information.

false, communication is key

Qualitative Forecasting methods

jury of executive decision, delphi method, sales force composite, consumer survey

According to the textbook, which of the following is NOT a way to closely match supply and demand?

maintaining a rigid price system

key challenges of CPFR implmentation

making internal changes, total implementation cost, and trust.

Which of the following indices provided by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is considered the most important by economists because it is a composite of five weighted, seasonally adjusted indices?

purchasing manager's index

the four components of time series data for QUANTITATIVE

trend variations, cyclical variations, seasonal variations, and random variations

t or f: As tighter control limits are instituted for the tracking signal, there is a greater probability of finding exceptions that require no action, but it also means catching changes in demand earlier.

true

t or f: Examples of forecasting accuracy measures are Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Mean Square Error

true

t or f: In the Delphi forecasting method, a group of internal and external experts are surveyed during several rounds in terms of future events and long-term forecasts of demand but the group members do not physically meet.

true

t or f: Some of the benefits of CPFR include strengthening partner relationships, providing an analysis of sales and order forecasts both upstream and downstream, and allowing collaboration on future requirements and planning.

true

t or f: Some of the important steps involved in implementation of a CPRF process model include developing a collaborative arrangement, creating a sales forecast, creating an order forecast, and generating those orders.

true

t or f: The difference between a simple regression forecast and a multiple regression forecast is that simple regression is used when there is only one explanatory (or independent) variable, while multiple regression is used when there are numerous explanatory variables.

true

The exponential smoothing forecast has the same value as the naïve forecast when α in the exponential smoothing model is equal to:

1

]Some measures of forecasting accuracy include mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, and mean squared error. The formula for each is dependent on the forecast error, which is calculated by using the equation:

Actual demand for period t minus the forecasted demand for period t

CPFR

Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment

Which one of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting? a. sales force composite b. consumer survey c. jury of executive opinion d. naive method

d. naive method

According to textbook, the top three challenges for CPFR implementation include all of the following except: a. Making organizational and procedural changes b. Trust between supply chain partners c. cost d. supplier lead times

d. supplier lead times