Systems Thinking Midterm SOS 220

What are mental models?

*Frameworks used to interpret and understand the world *Shaped by social, cultural, and environmental factors *Throw away incoming information that is irrelevant to beliefs *Changes not easily made because they question values and beliefs Example: turkey living on farm; cultural differences in mental models Everyone has mental models that are strapped by backgrounds, *Filter through incoming information and accept only that which fits into their model and does not store information that does not fit into their beliefs *Significant changes cannot be made easily, but can occur.

What is self-organization? Provide examples not listed in the book chapter.

-In order for systems to work or manage well there are three characteristics that have to be met: resilience, self-organization, or hierarchy. -Systems that are resilient are self-organizing 1. Self-organization: group of people organizing without a leader • i.e. government • Hobbs: man's life is brutish and short (solution is then government because it enforces order) -Book Definition: "the capacity of a system to make its own structure more complex is considered to be self-organizing; systems with self-organizing properties structure themselves, to create new structure, to learn, diversify and complexify" i.e. the brain is self-organizing -"Self-organization is a common property of living systems" -"Self-organization is often sacrificed for purposes of short-term productivity and stability" -"It produces heterogeneity and unpredictability"

What did the author learn over the 20 years between these two articles?

-Incrementalism should be used on a larger scale -If two charts are shown, the first being a full analysis and the second being an incomplete analysis, we currently lean towards the second due to bounded rationality. 1. Graph more for full analysis Can't do it because you don't have enough information thanks to bounded rationality 2. Have a grossly incomplete path You can't get past physical analysis because we don't know everything Some information is unconsidered, bumbling analysis There are too many interacting alternatives that can't be thought out Find out exact consequences of certain incremental changes and then use those. Use somewhat informed and thoughtful choice of method and problems----- semi strategies. Adapt, but have a thought out path

What does the author mean by "stable states" or "regimes" or "basins of attraction"?

-Stable state: conditions where system is stable: change in state occurs when a disturbance to a system is too big: pushes it over a threshold. Examples of regimes being pushed over a threshold into a new regime: 1. Monoculture farming -decreases genetic variety, and creates a possible wipe out of a species -monoculture farming eventually leads to pushing over the threshold, soil cannot recover 2. Deforestation: lose ability to regrow 3. Non-natural example: post and pre-war America: women in the workforce changed the regime -constraints keep system in one basin or the other Basin of attraction - going to work its way back to the bottom of the basin (limit pushes is to a specific point) Similar to gravity as an attractor for everything

How do leverage points link to thresholds?

-models of basins of attractions -The 2D model with just one curve is too simple →3D plane is a better representation of the basin of attraction model Leverage point: slope of what is already there

Provide an example of "Drift to Low Performance" in environmental/sustainability issues.

Actors think that condition is worse than actually is, they overcompensate to try to correct the system. Ex- climate change, hotter temps in Phoenix but gradually so we aren't worried. Similar to shifting baselines. Compare to best situation instead of worse situation to try to avoid drift to low performance.

What are the differences between adaptability and transformability? How does this relate to adaptive capacity? (We have discussed these a bit before).

Adaptability - Capacity to manage systems - components in system to adapt to condition. -Keep system from crossing into threshold you don't want it to cross into to. Transformability - Act of transforming the entire system, shifting into regime. -A step they didn't want to take, trying to get system back. -Differences: Adapt acts within regime, transformability becomes new regime. -DL Point: Resilience comes at a cost at lost of opportunity gain - convenience, economic gain, etc. Conditions where humans have to choose to be resilient vs opportunities.

What is a system?

An interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized in a way that achieves something Happen all at once, in many directions simultaneously Has a function or purpose, which is shown by actions, not deduced from stated goals Are within systems - it can be narrowed down seemingly indefinitely

How do these various traps tie back Systems Thinking?

Archetype systems such as addictions have positive and negative feedback loops. Addict wants out of the loop but can't, the situation must change. Allows opportunity to break free from bounded rationality. Allows a look into systems analysis.

What are discount rates?

Are one perspective on how we see the future: no matter what the discount rate is, it makes it hard to solve the problem regardless. Hysteresis: if you cross a threshold it will be really hard to get back Ex: letting battery die out all the way before you start charging it again

How does this evolution relate to our understanding of modern society? Where are we heading and why?

As population grows, unless we want to split the group off, we need to structure and settle cities. We are headed towards another flat line and we need to restructure because we have over 50% of our populations in cities. We have settled all of the land that we have. Since were getting so big, we could break down to a smaller size because we've run out of room. A way to avoid this is to come up with a better life plan. This has happened before, and will happen again if we don't change something within our system of living.

How does the author posit societal evolution (from tribes to villages to chiefdoms to nations)?

As quantity of a population of a tribe increases, tribes will either split off or restructure into new societies (villages, nations, empires). Related to quality and quantity. Once the village gets more and more people, eventually it will break up into more villages, and then eventually into an empire. Then people will leave and start this process over somewhere else. After this keeps happening a nation is born.

What does complexity have to do with sustainability? How does this link to systems thinking?

By understanding the complexity of a system, we can make changes to it that are sustainable.

How does complex differ from something that is complicated?

Complex is used to refer to the level of components in a system. If a problem is complex, it means that it has many components. Complexity does not evoke difficulty. The difference between complexity and complicated arises from the number of components. A complex system has many parts that are not directly linked together.

What is complexity?

Complexity is generally used to characterize something with many parts where those parts interact with each other in multiple ways. The study of these complex linkages is the main goal of complex systems theory. One is able to understand a system's complexity by looking at the individual parts that make it up. Since there are different components that the system is comprised of, an interdisciplinary approach is needed in order to understand the overall behavior of the system.

Three aspects of general resilience:

Diversity - Are there enough variations to absorb shocks to the system? Will they keep working? **Increased diversity has tradeoffs - More diversity can lead to different problems. Example: Response diversity in an ecosystem - One species goes extinct due to rainfall or temperature change, while another, similarly functioning species continues. Pollination in the southwest - Bees dying off. Tightness of Feedbacks - How quickly or strongly will the system respond to circumstances at hand? Modularity - How are the components linked? If one fails, will they keep working?

Rapid Growth

Early in the system it is engaged in a period of rapid growth as species or people exploit new opportunities and available resources. R is the maximum rate of growth in the growth models. These actors make use of available resources to exploit every possible ecological or social niche; the systems components are weakly interconnected and its internal state is weakly regulated. Ex. Google (mid 90s); Facebook(2000s) new businesses

How does the transition from quantity to quality relate to our discussions of boundaries and thresholds?

Ex: going from solid to liquid as heat is added (quantity) and changes states (quality). Thresholds of a village, as population increases, tension increases and villages split up. There isn't a difference in the human brain as compared to the primate's brain but because of the increase in mass, our intelligence is at an advantage. Must pass a critical threshold. An example would be; having a room of ice, add a little heat and nothing will change. But as you add more heat the ice starts to melt, taking it to another threshold, which is liquid

Why are feedback loops important? What are some types of feedback loops? Some examples?

Feedback loops = basic operating unit of a system. Consistent behavior pattern over a long period of time. Mechanism that allows a change in a stock to affect a flow into or out of the same stock Two types - Reinforcing (positive) feedback loops, like interest in a savings account Damping (negative) feedback loops, like the shocks in the car bring the car down smoothly Most systems have both types of feedback loops

How can the sharing of mental models help conservation efforts?

Framework needs to be sensitive to how people will react to these conservation efforts Coastal village over-fishing - go in and create a relationship with them and educate, will create a better outcome than going in and changing it for them Each scenario has different information, perceptions, etc. needs to be balanced to mental models to avoid conflicted views about what is going on Example: Gaslands vs. Fracking Nation *both went into communities with development and questions some stakeholders, but not the entire community or proper proportions of supporters vs. those against the development *neither reached open communication *films would have been much better if collaborative and covered both sides Mental models - Positive: Coastal village dealing with over fishing if non-governmental org. went in and understood how people were living there support could be applicable and impactful

Reorganization (Alpha Phase)

In this release phase uncertainty rules; all options are open. It leads quickly into a phase of reorganization and renewal. Small chance events have the opportunity to powerfully shape the future. Invention, experimentation, and re-assortment are prevalent. In ecosystems pioneer species may appear from elsewhere, or from previously suppressed vegetation; buried seeds can germinate, new species can invade the system.

How is the Meadows definition of resilience differ from the Walker and Salt definition? How are they the same?

MD: resiliency is a measure of a system's ability to survive and persist WSD: absorb shock and stay the same

What are the implications of these boundaries? What are your thoughts on these ideas? What should we do?

Negative implications; Can't be completely positive about the accuracy of the boundaries. If we can't pinpoint these exact thresholds, and society doesn't see drastic consequences after we come close to or cross one, this may disempower the argument. Political controversies arise from the belief that climate scientists setting these limits are imparting governance restricting the people's everyday use of fossil fuels, freshwater, etc. by hiding behind this 'false' data.

How can we tell when we are approaching a threshold?

No true way of being able to tell but a rough guess would be: Stocks are slow, Flows are fast

What is a critical threshold in a renewable resource system? How is this different from a non-renewable system?

Nonrenewable: stock < outflow Renewable: stock > outflow A renewable resource system is flow-limited meaning that they can support extraction forever as long as the extraction rate is lower than or equal to the regeneration rate. If the extraction rate is higher that the resources can reach a critical threshold (where the ability for the resource to regenerate is damaged) and potentially become a non-renewable resource system. A non-renewable resource system is stock limited meaning that it is all available at once and there is nothing feeding into it. The resource is limited.

What are the strengths and weaknesses of optimization?

Not effective, short time spans, puts a value on ecosystem services that is not positive because if it does not have a high value than it isn't considered as important as it **Linear model of thinking, ineffective in understanding systems and solving problems **Time span is shortened so it is good for rapid response but not for long-term responses/views **Puts value on land/ecosystem services that provide great benefits to the Earth **Could have benefits, could improve efficiency **Decreases resiliency: potato example, not enough genetic diversity because McDonald's only buys one type of potato so farmers only produce one type of potato **Resiliency has "shock-absorbers" whereas optimization has such a short-term plan that it does not have any room for hiccups along the way. Which makes resiliency a much smarter choice

Are there cases where political or social boundaries don't match the economic or ecological phenomena with which they are associated?

Nuclear energy- it scared people and politicians due to poor design. People do not want nuclear but in 3rd world countries, the new types of nuclear reactors would bring massive economic and ecological benefits.

2) What kinds of effect can our behavior have? What might happen if we do nothing? Are these effects just biological or are there economic (money) or ethical consequences?

Our behavior can be positive or negative impacts depending on the consequences it creates. If we do nothing, then the system will continue to act and respond to factors as it should. Depending on the situation, they can be both or just one or the other. Typically they are both since the entire world is intertwined with economics.

What are Planetary Boundaries?

Planetary boundaries are critical thresholds for the qualities of our planet's current systems. i.e.; climate change, biodiversity loss, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, ozone depletion, ocean acidification, global freshwater use, and change in land use. If even just one of these thresholds is crossed it effects all other systems in ways we can't exactly predict.

Provide an example of "Seeking the Wrong Goal" in work or school.

Poorly defined goal can ruin something if the goal is not well defined. Ex- standardized testing for schools, teachers just teach to the test instead of critical thinking. Students are just taught a narrow minded approach. Rewarding A and expecting B, reward grades expect that you learn. Medical field, influenced by drug companies instead of trying simply to make people healthy.

What is punctuated equilibrium and where did this idea come from?

Punctuated Equilibrium is a minimal change for an extended time period within biology and suddenly a transformation occurs. Originated in 1972 in evolutionary biology but is wildly discussed in other disciplines. You deal with it for a period of time and then choose to make a change because you understand that if you do not, negative repercussions will occur Ex: Monoculture. The soil will support the crop until the nutrients have been stripped then the farmer will be forced to redistribute nutrients or leave the land.

What is meant by rationality? (Hint: this is not a dictionary definition, so think about the phrase "rational choice".) What is meant by bounded rationality?

Rationality: people try to make their lives better by increasing efficiency, increasing utility; goes along with methodological individualism, do what's in best interest; anything can be rationalized, not necessarily a rational choice Bounded Rationality: making best decisions under current assumptions; limited by short term info, don't know what other people are going to do; imperfect because info is not always interpreted correctly; people are risk averse, make decisions that favor that Rationality: the idea that people try to make their life better by increasing utility and efficiency Bounded- best decision under limited information, generally short-term: imperfect since we can't analyze correctly

Why did we read "Cookies"?

Relates to the system change/regime shift Shows how they can try to get the "system" back but the cookies will never come back. Hysteresis- switching to a different state and not being able to go back. Where is the threshold for climate change? Some say we already reached it. We've reached a place where reinforcing feedback loops are inevitable. The frog created a change in the basin of attraction by getting rid of the cookies all together. In this story, the slow variables were the lack of willpower. The fast variables were all the small changes made to offset the lack of willpower. Basically, no solutions are easy to avoid a regime shift. Sacrificing is necessary.

What phase is the US government in?

Reorganization Or K phase; but you have to make goods arguments on the subject and it does depend on the scale you are looking at

What does systems thinking have to do with sustainability?

Resilience thinking enables us to embrace complex systems as there rather than trying to change their natural systems. By fully understanding these systems, we can make sustainable changes to it.

How does resilience link to sustainability?

Resilience: the capacity of a system to absorb changes without shifting into another regime Usually looking at how fast it can be solved, not the fact that we're actually able to solve it -need to start looking at the bigger picture and not just the end point *Not about speed, but the ability to bounce back* -with resilience it forces us to think about the whole system and the root of the problems -resilience is linked to sustainability because more resilience = more sustainable

What transformation did Kristianstads experience? Was this a transformation or just an adaptation? Could it be seen in either way?

Seen in two different ways of adaptation and transformation Transformation - Used to be a nice lake, constant shocks (sewage, water level, landfill) are shifting it into a new regime (becoming a forest). Adaptation: Too much value as flooded marshland. Organizations bring in stakeholders' opinions, trying to get system to stay where it is, not worst (toward equilibrium). Keep it away from further transformation and within current system.

What are the differences between single, double, and triple-loop learning?

Single - making obvious changes from obvious flaws Double - editing the system to be better, more efficient Triple - completely evaluating the system, seeing the flaws, making it into an entirely new system single-loop making some of the obvious changes or flaws, elephant example from book, change procedures double-loop: thinking more about the system and how to be more efficient ex: targeting areas where most of the damage is done Triple-loop: really evaluating the system, seeing the flaws and making it into an entirely different system

Why are slow variables important? Can you think of examples in other systems and how they interact with "fast" variables?

Slow variables- system governed by few interacting variables. If we know what the variables are, we can see where the thresholds lie. Humans have a tendency to act as fast variables. Slow variables: drivers that design and define thresholds incrementally. Ex: a slow variable would be gradual sun exposure over a long time. The regime of the skin would change from a healthy organ to unhealthy and a regime threshold would be the point where skin cancer occurs. - a fast variable would be a long day in the sun. The change would be to a strong sun burn.

What is "satisficing"? Provide an example.

Someone wants to satisfy their needs in a sufficient way Example: the fisherman overfishes to support family. Least common denominator. Cook vs going out to satisfy current hunger. Later hunger, money efficiency for later food or book

What is the importance of a flow?

Something leaving or entering a stock over time

3) Think about the three readings. Is what we do always the right decision? How can we make informed decisions?

Sometimes what we think is the right decision, is not always the right thing to do. We can make informed decisions on information previously proven to be true. It is still very hard to make decisions on things where we cannot predict their outcomes since we have never made the decisions before. An example of this could be, if no one had ever tried to breath underwater and we didn't have the science behind how humans breath, how could anyone see the consequence of trying to breath underwater.

What are the differences between general and specified resilience? Provide some examples from a system of your choosing.

Specified Resilience: Resilience to disturbances that you are aware of. Also known as targeted resilience - the measure of what to what. Measurement of something specific to something specific. DL Example: Measuring the increasing phosphorus levels in ponds until a threshold is reached and there is a regime shift. DL Example: Resilience of Tempe flood control to a big storm today - is it going to work? General resilience: Resilience to disturbances that you haven't even thought of. General resilience looks at system as a whole First phrase of specified resilience - "Resilience of something." DL Example: Positive feedback of hurricanes and water temperature.

How does this link back to our readings throughout the course?

Stocks, flows, feedback loops, punctuated equilibrium, people aren't going to realize that a problem exists until we have crossed the system and then they are realize that there is something going on

What is meant by "More is Different"?

The "more" things involved mean that there is new "things" make what ever we are talking about different.

What changes as we move from #12 (least leverage) to #1 (most)?

The 1-12 ranking is generally seen as the spectrum of effectiveness (1 being the least effective, 12 being the most etc)

What is resilience?

The ability of the system to absorb disturbances and still maintain its purpose and structure.

How does this theory relate to our discussions of thresholds and basins of attraction?

The change within the system will eventually force the basin to shift into a different regime, such as the example with over exposure of phosphorus within a body of water. Change factors will eventually cause systems to change to another regime; leading ball into another basin—this is the quick change Example: body temperature, stability and then quick raise in temperature

What is the importance of a stock?

The foundation of any system. They are the elements of a system that you can see. They change over time through the actions of a flow.

Conservation (or K Phase)

The transition to the conservations phases proceeds incrementally. During this phase, energy gets stored and materials slowly accumulated. Connections between the actors increases, and some of the actors change. The completive edge shifts from the opportunists to specialists who reduce the impacts of variability through their own mutually reinforcing relationships Such a system is increasingly stable- but over a decreasing range of conditions. The later conservation phase is more concentrated with process and efficiency (one size fits all)

Release (or Omega Phase)

The transition to the release phase can happen in a heartbeat. The longer the conservation phase persists the smaller the shock needed to end it. A disturbance that exceeds the systems resilience breaks it apart; natural and social capital leaks out of the system. EX. Fire, drought, insect pests, and disease; economy: a new technology, or a market shock.

Describe one way in which a system may begin to oscillate. What does this mean for system participants/managers?

The whole idea behind observing oscillation is trying to find the point at which a change can be made to either stop/further advance/inhibit the process. A time delay in a balancing feedback loop can cause a system to oscillate. **Lag time: the information needed to make a change comes later and the late action causes oscillation. Ex: Tesla has their consumers order their cars to help eliminate the influxes in inventory. This is a new way of thinking: a game changer.

How does this fit with our discussions of thresholds? With our discussions of scale?

There are cycles with social, economic, and ecological systems of the world. Thresholds represent the transitions between regime changes. The phases of the adaptive cycle change within the same regime. When the system exceeds the threshold, the adaptive cycle can still be used to define the current state of the system. A phase change The adaptive cycle fits into the ball and basin idea where the adaptive cycle functions within the ball and basin There are times where in the adaptive cycle that are likely to push the ball out of the basin; where are times of rapid change in the adaptive cycle is when there is the most risk. You need to pay attention to the interaction of the different systems Because of scale you have smaller systems operating in the larger systems; ex. The bugs within the a forest system; neighborhoods within a city We can see emergent behaviors based on these interactions between these systems Pan anarchy going across multiple scales

What are agent based models?

They are individuals working in a system and dynamic situations. Although they are useful, these models have pros and cons. The pros are that they help to understand a system, they account for nonlinear complexities, and help us visualize a system as a whole. However, the cons are that they are often complicated, have too many variables, there is room for error, are only good for assumptions, can be used for misrepresentation, and are only an abstraction of reality. How do you define a model? It is a representation of something else. To understand something, you must find its parameters. It's also important to know what your research question is, but where do you find facts for modeling? You can find them in both literature and observation.

How does this theory relate to our discussions of mental models and/or bounded rationality?

This relates to our discussion of mental models because we can see small changes occurring, we see that we need things to improve but we don't always have enough information. Many times we ignore the signs of regime shift and it's not until too late that we have to back up and try to reverse the effects. People and organizations make slow decisions, not doing much until something happens that causes quick change

1) Where do we manage populations of organisms? (conservation, agriculture, etc.)

We manage populations in a wide variety of regulating systems. If we are talking about people, we manage populations through birth control, Planned Parenthood, and things of that nature.

What does the author mean in the last paragraph in the chapter by structures and latent behaviors?

When it's finally time to make a change, it is already past the point of necessary action or the situation has changed so drastically for the change to make any difference. Whole issue of sustainability is to 'think ahead''. In order to understand a complex system you must first understand its latent behaviors and the structures. We have all these different kinds of systems with different structures to them. There are specific parts to the structures but the way of thinking that we are looking at is looking at the system and trying to change the actual system and therefore the way parts work with each other. Game Changer.

What are the axes of the adaptive cycle chart?

Y axis is potential and the x axis is connected Connectedness are how connected the parts of the system are connected to each other Ex potential; biomass in the environment or wealth in a company Ex of release is forest fire or a company going bankrupt In reorganization phase you see the potential rise

What does it mean that hierarchies are partially decomposable?

a system within subsystems; in other words in the process of creating new structures and increasing complexity, self-organizing systems generate hierarchy -"Hierarchies provide system stability and resilience, since they reduce the info parts of the system have to keep track of." -Partially decomposable: not entirely separable subsystems fit within systems • "Hierarchies can be taken apart and the subsystems with their especially dense information links can function, partially, as systems in their own right." • "Hierarchies evolve from the lowest level up—from the pieces to the whole, from cell to organ to organism, from individual to team..." • Breakdowns in hierarchies: trying to understand a system: what is the bigger picture?

What is a complex system?

complex system: an interdisciplinary field of research that seeks to explain how large numbers of relatively simple entities organize themselves, without the benefit of a central controller, into a collective whole that creates patterns, uses information, evolves and learns Give some examples: Traffic. The domino effect of a driver's action, like braking. Weather Flocking

What does the author mean by muddling through, and why are we interested in it for this class?

when we're getting through something "awkwardly", in increments or baby steps. Branch method: branch off from what has already been done -Root method: start from ground up -The author does not think complex problems can be approached by the root method. -First set your values, then you find the best means to accomplish those. -You cannot do this using the root method. -You have to weight values. -Social objectives sometimes have conflicting values. (non-transitive) Ex: Studying for a test on Friday. You say "I'd prefer to study Wednesday night to Tuesday," but Thursday night you say "I wish I studied Monday night."