Test set for gov

"I will not make age an issue in this campaign"

Ronald Reagan

Dark-Horse Strategy*

*wayne Strategy of the person who is behind in the polls, not the frontrunners, rely on beating expectations continually and gaining momentum Implications: examples are obama and rubio, much harder to run this way without much money, but need to use press narrative, with each win more money and more press pays attention and need to continue streak to keep beating expectations, but as The Gamble shows, as the dark-horse succeeds, undergoes a process of rise, examination, scrutiny, and fall.

Insurgent Candidate*

- Ability to generalize from measurement to intended meaning (does this mean what we think it means) were our questions interpreted the way we meant them to be and did people answer based on what we thought they would see the questions as Involves questions and responses Threats include: Polled individuals unfamiliar with issues Responsdents give socially desirable answers Poorly worded questions People who have no opinions Measurement problems with recency effect, question ordering, interviewer effect typical problems pollsters face as measurement effects also have problems Sides and Vavreck

15th Amendment

Citizens cannot be denied the right to vote b/c of race, color , or precious condition of servitude

Non-probability Sample

-We use this b/c sometimes probability sampling isn't feasible or desirableA sample or group of data collected in which not everyone in the population had an equal chance of being chosen, no random sampling -much less external validity, hard to run tests and generalize to the population.

Opportunities of Transition

1. electoral mandate (honey moon phase) 2. Develop policy initiatives 3. institute organizational arrangements (change things from the beginning) 4. learn from the outgoing administration 5. send a message or symbol of unity and change (porter says Reorganization, Symbolic Action, Policy Initiative)

Mixed System

1912-1968. The birth of the primary. You must now appeal to the people and general public to win the party nomination. Primaries are non-binding. However, the real decision about who was made president was still made at the convention, and representation at these conventions was not demographically representative of the general public which is why McGovern-Fraser came to be in 1968. SIG: Primary reform in us history was baby steps, this being the one right before what we have today which was born in 1968.

FECA

1971- a United States federal law which increased disclosure of contributions for federal campaigns. Allowed unions and corporations to form PACs and limited on candidtes and VPs and their familys could donate. FECA also requires campaigns and political committees to report the names, addresses, and occupations of donors of $200 or more. FECA also set spending limits for individuals to direct donate to a campaign. SIG: unintended consequences. Soft Money Originally meant to just increase disclosures of donations, but amended in 1974 to place limits on individual spending, candidate spending, individual contributions. Originally allowed soft money to be used for specific party building activities, but hazy line as they spent this on issue ads

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act*

A United States federal law that amended the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971, which regulates the financing of political campaigns. Its chief sponsors were Senators Russ Feingold (D-WI) and John McCain (R-AZ). The law became effective on 6 November 2002, and the new legal limits became effective on January 1, 2003 As noted in McConnell v. Federal Election Commission, a United States Supreme Court ruling on the BCRA, the Act was designed to address two issues: The increased role of soft money in campaign financing, by prohibiting national political party committees from raising or spending any funds not subject to federal limits, even for state and local races or issue discussion; The proliferation of issue advocacy ads, by defining as "electioneering communications" broadcast ads that name a federal candidate within 30 days of a primary or caucus or 60 days of a general election, and prohibiting any such ad paid for by a corporation or paid for by an unincorporated entity using any corporate or union general treasury funds. SIG: Atempt to crackdown on how out of control ads and ad spending are. Has it worked? Over 6 billion spent in 2012. 2002, banned parties from receiving or soliciting soft money (money that is given to parties for general purposes instead of for specific candidates), banned parties from spending any soft money on specific candidate communications, banned officeholders and candidates from spending soft money on specific candidate communications banned from receiving or soliciting any soft money as well. Essentially prevented parties from spending or raising any money not subject to limits. Also restricted spending on issue ads by corporations and non-profits, not allowed to say candidate's name during election season in the ad (eventually overturned by Citizens United v. FEC) Implications: Related to the larger idea of money in politics, corruption that the anti-establishment distrustful public believes in. Since the 1960's people have become more distrustful of government, as Dennis Johnson explains in "No Place for Amateurs." Eventually provisions were struck down in Citizens United, allowing for the increase in attack ads. Geer "Negativity in Presidential Campaigns" states that negative ads will likely grow with the growth in PACs, that this act was supposed to protect against. Changed campaigning to be even more candidate centered and less party centered as donating to the party with general funds could not help candidates as much anymore, instead rise of Super PACs and other organizations. Favored Republicans this act as Democrats rely more on many soft money donations. * limits soft-money contributions, and makes organizations take responsibility for the advertisements. McCain (2002)*

Buckley v. Valeo*

A case in which the Supreme Court of the United States upheld federal limits on campaign contributions and ruled that spending money to influence elections is a form of constitutionally protected free speech. The court also stated candidates can give unlimited amounts of money to their own campaigns. Struck down parts of the FECA as they violated the First Amendment, struck the limits on spending on campaigns by candidates and citizens, but upheld limits on individual contributions to campaigns. Also upheld disclosure laws and limits on spending by those who accept government subsidies. Implications: First step to opening up politics to big money influences as candidates themselves can spend as much as they want (Donald Trump right now), also citizens and private groups can spend as much as they want, causing rise of things like issue ads Also reinforced the idea of limiting money in politics with public funds limit, though in 2008 Obama revolutionized by not accepting public funds and instead raising money on his own More candidate centered campaigns

Electoral College

A certain number of electors from each state proportional to and seemingly representative of that state's population. each elector chooses a candidate believing they are representing their constituency's choice. The candidate who receives a higher proportion of electoral votes within a state receives all the electoral votes for that state.

McGovern-Fraser Commission

A commission formed at the 1968 Democratic convention in response to demands for reform by minority groups and others who sought better representation. Commission held by the Democratic party in 1970 to reform the Democratic presidential nomination process to give more power to the people diminish the influence of party bosses, thereby making it more democratic. The Commission was formed in response to the chaos of the 1968 DNC in Chicago in which the sitting VP, Humphrey was nominated despite the fact that he did not win any primaries Republicans followed suit and adopted the Democratic Party's reforms. someone like Carter being nominated is demonstrative of the post McGovern reforms. He was an outsider but was able to win despite the fact that party bosses wouldn't pick someone like him (governor of small state). These reforms have increased democracy, decreased party influence . Commission only called for more representative delegates to the convention but that effectively switched it all to a primary system, as it was a way to escape scrutiny over makeup of the delegation Media and government subsidies for preconvention campaigning increased primary entrance and states used almost exclusively now to select delegates for convention. Used to build popularity, need votes to get delegates to win nomination now. Cons-dramatic increase in spending, extended length of the primary process, increase in media influence.

Daisy Ad

A controversial political advertisement aired on television during the 1964 United States presidential election by incumbent president Lyndon B. Johnson's campaign. Though only aired once (by the campaign), it is considered a factor in Johnson's landslide victory over Barry Goldwater and an important turning point in political and advertising history. It remains one of the most controversial political advertisements ever made.

Memorandum of Understanding

A formal agreement between parties, usually just the Democrats and Republicans on the rules, structure, and setup of the debate. Used to ensure the there are no unaccounted variables and each side negotiates to get what they want in the debates.

Front Porch Campaign

A front porch campaign is a low-key electoral campaign used in American politics in which the candidate remains close to or at home to make speeches to supporters who come to visit. The candidate largely does not travel around or otherwise actively campaign.[1] The successful presidential campaigns of James A. Garfield in 1880, Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and William McKinley in 1896 are perhaps the best-known front porch campaigns. McKinley's opposing candidate, William Jennings Bryan, gave over 600 speeches and traveled many miles all over the United States to campaign, but McKinley outdid this by spending about twice as much money campaigning. While McKinley was at his Canton, Ohio, home conducting his "front-porch campaign", Mark Hanna was out raising millions to help with the campaign. Another president that had been known for his front porch campaign was Warren G. Harding during the presidential election of 1920. Low-key electoral campaign in which the candidate remains close to home to make supporters who come to visit. Worked more in the past with smaller populations, now hard to fly everyone to the specific area to hold speeches or it works in those heavily favored. Change in campaign tactics with grassroots volunteers.

Direct Mail

A high-tech method of raising money for a political cause or candidate. It involves sending information and requests for money to people whose names appear on lists of those who have supported similar views or candidates in the past.A mailing from an interest group or campaign focused at a specialized audience whose purpose is both to raise money and mobilize supporters Implication: Rise of microtargeting has led to creation of direct mail to specific voters on specific issues. Mainly started by Karl Rove, one of the best ways of mobilizing apart from person to person contact Most popular among political consultants (Dennis Johnson "No Place for Amateurs")

Coverage Error

A kind of survey error in which there is nonsampling, a gap between the sampling frame (the population you are drawing your sample of people from) and the population you are trying to generalize about Implications: One of the main reason for why polls are inaccurate, trying to predict voters from nonvoters, need to get demographics just right Todd Rogers Adan Acevedo.

National Primary

A proposal by critics of the caucuses and presidential primaries, which would replace these electoral methods with a nationwide primary held early in the election year.-Favors incumbents, frontrunners, those with more money -Small states lose influence -Less time to learn about candidates and policy

Checkers Speech

A speech made by vice presidential candidate Richard Nixon in 1952 after he had been accused of improprieties regarding a fund established for him to reimburse him for his political expenses. In it, he said that he defended himself and said regardless of what everyone else thought, he would keep a dog that his kids had named checkers. It led to an outpouring of support for Nixon and it secured his place on the republican ticket for the 1952 election.

Gender Gap

A term that refers to the regular pattern by which women are more likely to support Democratic candidates. Women tend to be significantly less conservative than men and are more likely to support spending on social services and to oppose higher levels of military spending.

Internal Validity

Ability to generalize from measurement to intended meaning (does this mean what we think it means) were our questions interpreted the way we meant them to be and did people answer based on what we thought they would see the questions as Involves questions and responses Threats include: Polled individuals unfamiliar with issues Responsdents give socially desirable answers Poorly worded questions People who have no opinions Measurement problems with recency effect, question ordering, interviewer effect typical problems pollsters face as measurement effects also have problems

"It's morning in America"

Ad aired by Ronald Reagan in 1984. Depicts scenes of typical American families and pasttimes, mentions the low interest rates, high employment and economic health. Asks are you better than 4 years ago, should we return to the Democrats? Implications: Exemplifies a positive ad, stressing the governing strength of the candidate Utilizes pathos and logos appealing to emotional and logical aspects, using statistics to convey credibility Rose Garden candidate strategy, emphasizing the success of the incumbent.

19th Amendment

Amendment to the U.S. Constitution (1920) extended the right to vote to women in federal or state elections.

24th Amendment

Amendment to the U.S. Constitution (1964) eliminated the poll tax as a prerequisite to vote in national elections.

Battleground/Swing States

Arizona Colorado Florida Georgia Iowa Maine (statewide) Maine (CD-2) Michigan Minnesota Nebraska (CD-2) New Mexico Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin Swing states see more action, and currently map favors Democrats as they have roughly 240 votes safe while Republicans only have 207 votes safe, not many swing states. Fewer and fewer too as in the 1960s-1990s most elections had around 10-15 states decided by within 5 percentage points minus landslide of Reagan in 1984. Now only 6 swing states.

"It's the economy, stupid"

Bill Clinton's campaign slogan. Saying that the economy is the problem. 1992

Dynamic Equilibrium

Campaigns are basically equally strong, with endorsements, name recognized candidates, money, organization, strategists, and so they will generally cause a leveling effect. • Dynamic equilibrium • Tugofwarbetweenthetwoparties • It'snotthatcampaignsdon'tmatter,it'sthattheycanceleachother • Sometimes one will make a misstep and that will affect the outcome • Theresultoftwovigorouscampaignsisoftenatie • Partofthereasonthatpresidentialcontestsaresostableisthatthemajor-party candidates tend to be evenly matched in terms of resources Sides and Vavrek - The Gamble

Grassroots Campaign

Campaigns were thought to be won through high official party politics. Now as a candidate, stimulating excitement at a lower level and having local communities start movements for your candidacy is essential. SIG: Obama in 08 and 12 changed the game and showed how powerful a grassroots campaign can be. Campaign centered around real people reaching out to other real people rather than telemarketing, ads, direct mail, focuses on ordinary people helping with outreach Has seen a revival that has worked in the past few elections, especially with many people who are disaffected and disillusioned with politics. Bernie, with many volunteers and small donations.

Cross-Sectional Survey

Collect data from a whole population and ask them questions at or about one specific point in time. Implications: Most polls are cross-sectional surveys, which is why most pollsters and analysts say polling is more useful to test out theories rather than to predict, because these are time-specific rather than over a duration as tracking polls would do

Dixiecrat

Conservative southern Democrats who objected to President Truman's strong push for civil-rights legislation. Southern Democrats who broke from the party in 1948 over the issue of civil rights and ran a presidential ticket as the States' Rights Democrats with J. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina as a canidate.

Horserace

Coverage focuses on polls and who is "leading", Less on issues, campaigns, or candidate speeches.

DNC

Democratic National Committee serves as the governing body which manages strategy to help campaigns of democrats running for office. Implications: Cousins v. Wigoda, it has its own power, centralized power to help campaigns, restricted in power now by the soft money restrictions, rise of the primaries, money from other areas, candidate centered campaigns. Party nomination convention held every four years since 1832. End goal of the convention is to nominate a Presidential and Vice Presidential candidate for the Democratic party through state-affiliated delegate votes. While now the nominee is known in advance because candidates are effectively nominated using caucuses and primaries (which inform state delegates on who to cast a vote for), the nomination used to be determined AT the convention with backroom deals between party bosses. 2012 Democratic National Convention, where Obama and Biden were nominated to run for office, and where party leaders/up-and-comers made speeches. The history of the DNC (from King Caucus to Andrew Jackson/backroom deals and party bosses to Primary-Media); McGovern-Fraser commission. Also, important to note the brief bump in approval ratings/polls that occurs after a convention. Mostly, convention is meant to mobilize and energize the base.

Densification

Densification Densification refers to the explosion in the sheer volume of political and campaign communications with the coming of digital networks, channels and devices. The density of public communication has increased along five dimensions: (1) more voices uttering remarks have yielded an increase of almost 10% in citizen participation in campaign communications; (2) more remarks per voice has demanded greater consistency and coordination in message delivery; (3) more days remarks are available; (4) more places from which remarks can be dispatched and accessed; (5) more categories is which remarks are grouped, as consumers interact with media in new ways.

Benchmark Surveys*

Done at beginning of elections, candidate wants to analyze general scene, overview of population. Three main things polled: 1.Name recognition polled 2.electoral strength (vs. opponents) 3.incumbent performance, To analyze sometimes whether to join a race, but often to know how to craft a narrative, message or issues candidate should focus on. Implications: Problems of surveys include timing, too early so often no recognition of the challenger, views change over 12-18 month period With amount of time money needed on campaigns now, it is important to see whether to even run Importance of a campaign narrative that fits the race, economy dominated talks in 2008, 2012, national security in 2004. Find what people want. Hillygus and Shields: surveys used to determine any cleavages or wedge issues to exploit with microtargeting. Increased emphasis on polling now, proprietary polls used to craft message, to see what is working

Early Voting

Early voting is when people vote before election day (first Tuesday in November), either by mail, absentee or in person. In 2012, approximately 30 million (about 25% of all voters) voted early. These votes are not counted until election day, however party officials in each state release the party affiliations of these voters. SIG: Early voting can often be representative of what is to come on election day, but not always. Also have been controversies in recent years in different states, namely Florida, with early voting.

"Eisenhower Answers America"*

Eisenhower's successful ad campaign

Faithless Elector

Elector who does not vote for the candidate they promised to vote for. These have never determined outcome of presidential election but is a major problem with electoral college system Picked by state party leaders.

Idiosyncratic Campaign Influences*

Events unique to the campaign that affect the vote. Campaign gaffes, sound bites, missteps, strategic blunders, campaign rallies gone bad. Fundamentals of each campaign stay the same from year to year as in economy's effect, approval rating, but these unique factors account for shift in votes based on media framing, public opinion Examples: 47 percent, bet $10,000 Reflects the power of the media now as a force for sound bites, new media in age of blogging, posting, tweeting, easy for mistakes to become viral quickly, greater effect now of ici than in the past.

"There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe"

Ford 1976 Vs carter

Enthusiasm Gap

Generally describes a substantial difference in the turnout or excitement surrounding an election between two groups. In the 2016 cycle, refers to mainly the gap between Republicans and Democrats. Implications: Voter turnout very much relies on turning out, mobilizing, energizing the base Enthusiasm in the primaries generally seen as good for the general election but historical evidence shows that turnout numbers in the primaries don't mean too much, possibly because it means more competitive campaign

GOTV

Get out the vote. As Brady says, you must asked people to vote for you. To win an election, mobilization is key. GOTV efforts at a national and local level is very important. We saw how well Obama did this in 2008 and 2012 and how it is becoming more and more important. SIG: Changing elections and making grassroots very important. Also could be even better- turnout was about 60% in this year's election. Sidney Verba, most people don't vote because they aren't asked to, so many simply have to ask In person contact and phone banks are among the best ways to increase voter turnout, especially if repeated--Obama's large volunteer network helped increase this contact, especially local volunteers. Most voters are already decided based on party id and this is where campaigns seem to make a difference. Direct mail efforts, canvassing, 72 hour blast

Hard vs. Soft Money

Hard money is contributed directly to a candidate. It is regulated by law and monitored by the Federal Election Commission. Individuals can give no more than $2,500 to each candidate or candidate committee per election. Soft money is contributed to the Republican and Democratic National Committees, and to the party committees in each state. 'Soft' contributions are not as heavily regulated. The parties may use such money to promote candidates or finance party projects, such as political conventions. Super PACs are soft money. SIG: all regulations such as FEC and FECA attempted to regulate the political contribution system, but unintended consequence of soft money. Soft money can not go to a specific candidate, and instead it goes to a party for "party building activities" and to indirectly support a candidate. The bottom line for soft money is that parties decide how to use money, and the candidate cannot touch it. Hard money, on the other hand, has more strict limits and is regulated by the Federal Election Commission. Hard money used for specific get out the vote efforts, party-building. Both important, soft money struck down by McCain Feingold, can't simply have party raisse tons of money and use that money for anything

Hard vs. Soft News

Hard news is up to the minute supposed to be non-biased (according to Phil Alongi) reporting of events. Examples would be a nightly news show or a newspaper. Soft News is news that is entertainment first, information second. Examples would be SNL, Colbert, Daily Show, even twitter/facebook. SIG: Younger generation getting more information from soft news. People actually make decisions from this information even though it is not as serious or always accurate. Shows changing of the media.

Hazards of Transition

Haste, hubris, ignorance, overreaching (don't try to do too much, overwhelm Congress), indiscipline (prioritize, you can't do everything)

538

How many electoral votes are there?

270

How many votes are needed to win the Presidency?

Digital Integration

Idea that data or information on one device can be read manipulated and shared on another device. Implication: Technology is a big step forward for those looking to improve campaign outreach. Groundbreakers: metrics driven, needed centralized data that could determine best messages to say what to do/act so that people could do them, by using digital integration with volunteers, so much more gets done and is better Pew Research Center "How Presidential Candidates Use the Internet and Social Media" those that have more use of technology that is centralized with a message (links to the main website) are more successful. * integrating digitally your campaign: ex. Obama, email lists*

Issue Ownership*

Idea that parties can "own" certain issues in the sense that they can claim a better record with dealing with certain issues are stronger in these areas with the electorate selective emphasis/issue-avoidance thesis states that parties should showcase issues they own and avoid those stalked out by the other party. some political scientists claim that issue ownership actually doesn't really exist. Campaigns decide on what issues to talk about what themes to emphasize that will help them most so they pick certain messages. Since it will be rare for the same messages to apply to both sides, the themes will rarely converge. Arguments against this thesis are that campaigns especially in 2000 frame the argument based on the topics that mattered most to independent voters. More like issue convergence or issue stress. politicians should consider what issues they own when putting together campaign strategy/ad don't want an ad that doesn't resonate with an issue you own.

Mobilization

Refers to efforts at making voter populations active political participants, persuading them and getting them to go out and vote. Grassroots campaigning, word of mouth, door-to-door, phone calls are all methods of contributing to a voter's likelihood of political activism. Without mass mobilization, we might be seeing much higher apathy and lower levels of political involvement by voters resulting in less turnout and possibly declining legitimacy for the government. Getting people to turnout on election day.

National Conventions

In the 19th and 20th centuries, these were the decision-making bodies that would choose who would be the nominee, smoke-filled room deals. Today, nominations are settled well before the conventions, so conventions are huge, fancy media events that give free media attention to the candidates and help energize the base. They happen over the course of several days and consist of big speeches, arguments about party platform, and culminate with the chosen candidate accepting the nomination and thus officially beginning his campaign for the presidency, increased excitement about the candidates and united/energized the base. Typically a convention bounce, in which a candidate's numbers will gain 5 or 6 percentage point in Gallup's public opinion polls, but this bounce is short-lived. National conventions are most significant for allowing candidates to introduce and define themselves, to gain media attention, and to energize partisans and encourage party cooperation and unity heading into the general election cycle.

Incumbency Advantage/Disadvantage

Incumbents have the advantage of a campaign organization already in place, image of being presidential, ability to point to record, volunteer networks and donor networks already there, name recognition, more media coverage, more money without a tough primary to go through Disadvantage in the accountability, effects such as the economy is hard to control, after 8 years generally they want a "time for a change" effect. Clarifying candidate is hard if situation is going poorly. Cannot switch positions as easily either

Emotive Content*

Intentionally using words to arouse feelings about a subject to bias others positively or negatively in order to gain influence or power.* Images or words that move people emotionally that make them feel inspired or scared, typically in ads Implications Affect-Transfer model in Craig and Hill, people vote based on perceptions of candidates after they see something and feel a certain way.

1960s Presidential Debates

Kennedy vs Nixon

26th Amendment

Lowered the voting age from 21 to 18

Econometric Prediction Models

Method of predicting elections that uses statistics and the economy to forecast results. Believes that the state of the economy and views on the economy determine the outcome. Track GNP, GDP, inflation, unemployment. Problems include whether the economy determines all, views on the economy differ from actual economy state, who do people think is responsible, what variables to use, when should the state of the economy be evaluated (usually take into account presidential approval, polling, primary results) Implications: Retrospective voting Statistics Campaigns don't matter much

Naïve Forecasts

Method of predicting elections. Based on general feelings or cursory analysis and reports based on journalism.

Non-response Error

Non-response errors occur when the survey fails to get a response to one, or possibly all, of the questions. Non-response causes both an increase in variance, due to the decrease in the effective sample size and/or due to the use of imputation, and may cause bias if the non-respondents and respondents differ with respect to the characteristic of interest. SIG: This can be a problem in politics because it can make public polling inaccurate and misleading. Though a non-response might be assumed as a non-voter, this is not always the case.

Lincoln Four-Step

Obtain a complete list of voters, determine who will vote for whom, speak to the undecided by those who are most similar (most confidence in them), on election day make sure they vote. Segmenting, targeting, mobilizing. Much harder to do this than in Lincoln's time because of the decline in party power, increase in the electorate. Used to target voters well and identify those who can be microtargeted and swayed by certain issues, but hard to know who to ask to vote. Mobilization efforts now are better in communities, ground game outsourced by unions, local volunteers Need money to carry out this program, statistics to analyze who is a likely voter, using voter history, then find them and then contact in person.1. Obtain a complete list of all the voters. 2. Ascertain with certainty for whom each will vote. 3. Have the undecided spoken to by those in whom they have the most confidence. 4. On Election Day, make sure every Whig gets to the polls.

Narrowing Effect*

Occurs naturally during Primary Season. The primary races by New Hampshire thin out to usually 3-4 candidates. This occurs because some candidates have not raised enough money, do not have enough political endorsements, or the media has shut them out from any free publicity. SIG: Narrowing Effect shows how essential the invisible primary period is as well as success in Iowa and New Hampshire. Theory of predictable campaigns-campaigns make the gap between winner and loser smaller, theory by james campbell, results from campaigns having similar amounts of funding in general election, similar quality candidates, similar volunteer networks and over time this levels out the playing field There are 5 reasons why in Cambell - 1) campaign makes the biggest difference for a divivded party and they are ussually the ones behind at the beginning 2) campaigns are intensely competitive and level the field 3) fruntrunners become targets 4) front runners make trade off between securing election and extending lead 5) late deciding voters split about evenly (diluted by magnitude of campaign)

Old vs. New Media

Old media is radio, newspapers, tv. New Media is facebook, twitter, internet, but also includes partisan radio and soft news. Combination of the two now exists with news travelling faster than ever. SIG: Change the political game. Campaigns now have the ability to spread news at incredibly fast pace. Obviously if on final, go into greater detail. Old media involves broadcast and cable television, radio, movie, newspapers, magazines, books and most print publications. New Media includes the rise of the "new" news such as Partisan radio talk shows, the emergence of the Internet which has low cost entry fees compared to other mass media. New Media also includes the rise of "soft" news such as night time talk shows (The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, SNL) and news as a form of entertainment, and the rise of social media (Facebook, Twitter, and other social networks.) A theme that this term could tie to is the expansion of media means also more info (densification), resulting in campaigns adapting to utilize both forms. Narrowcasting issues with new media allowing for confirmation bias sites New media, actions of citizens can easily affect impact of a story, more shares, more likes Attention spans are brief, need to be entertaining to people, sound bites in new media

Delegate

Ones within the nomination system chosen to go to the convention and vote for the eventual party candidate. At-large delegates for states, congressional delegates within each district, unpledged delegates for those who are either state party members or superdelegates Implications: Delegates matter a lot, who they are, who they can vote for if unbound

Leaners

People who claim to be independents, but consistantly favor one party over another. Theory that most independents are actually leaners or that most of the uneducated more likely to be leaners they are more likely to switch parties though, so these are the ones to be targeted Median voter theory, convergence on issues to get leaners, move towards the middle

Exit Polls

Polls conducted as voters leave selected polling places on Election Day.

Debate Boot Camp

Refers to the debate preparation that the candidate goes through including the mock debate partner, studying film, reviewing concepts, memorizing key messages or lines. Implications: Debates are high stakes as Schroeder points out, and boot camps mimic everything down to the setting and the issues Much preparation goes into the debates, time to show audience an image

Cross-Pressured Voter

Someone who is conflicted between his party's stances and his own beliefs. having several conflicting ideologies. They can be liberal on some issues, yet conservative on others

"Low energy"

Term used by candidates to refer to other candidates who seem to be boring, without much support. Suggests a lack of virility or masculine vigor. Implications: Candidate imaging and attacks center mainly on perceptions of leadership. Voters watch debates or ads and main takeaways especially among less educated crowd that is more persuadable are leadership and strength rather than policies. Low energy implies not much "alpha male" leadership and more wimpy. Even more exacerbated by people wanting an anti-establishment persona to beat down the old, want someone who will attack. Example: Trump attacks on Bush now, lacking enthusiasm surrounding him, doesn't define a president.

FEC

The Federal Election Commission (FEC) is an independent regulatory agency that was founded in 1975 by the United States Congress to regulate the campaign finance legislation in the United States. It was created in a provision of the 1974 amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act. It describes its duties as "to disclose campaign finance information, to enforce the provisions of the law such as the limits and prohibitions on contributions, and to oversee the public funding of Presidential elections." SIG: Has Campaign Finance really been kept in check?

Jacksonian Democracy

The first major opening up of American suffrage (voting rights) by Jackson's new Democratic Party in 1830s. Franchise extended to all white men (not just rich white men). Achieved by state legislation not constitutional amendment. Political movement taking place from 1828-1850 during the second party system under Andrew Jackson Called for more equality and greater power to the common person Celebrated extension of suffrage to all white males, strength of the executive branch over judicial because that was the one person elected by all of the America, sought to broaden public's participation caused spike in voter turnout as there was more excitement and national conventions Small government, patronage Made of farmers and city dwellers

Generation Gap

The generation gap occurs because young people tend to be more liberal and vote democratic whereas the older generation of voters tend to favor the conservative/republican ticket. In 2012- Obama won the 18-29 vote 60-37 whereas Romney won the 65+ vote 56-44. These generation gaps are wider than the Bush elections, probably because the American youth was particularly inspired by Obama. SIG: GOP must change stance and try to attract younger voters or eventually they are screwed.

Common-Carrier Function*

The media's function as an open channel through which political leaders can communicate with the public. Media is the only way for government to communicate with citizens. The media's function as an open channel through which political leaders can communicate with the public. Becoming less and less so as politicians are using new media to forego the traditional media's communication channels. Paradigm-shift thesis illustrates that the media likes to cover conflict, likes to show problems occurring, doesn't like the sound bites of campaigns, so more focused on conflict now Media focus less on policy than on horserace and their own stories now, don't like being conduit for information.

Microtargeting

The process of gathering multiple sources of data available on people, everything from their tax and phone records to the catalogs they receive, so as to market to them. A marketing strategy that uses data and demographics to identify the interests and desires of specific subgroups of the electorate. Using information about that unique subgroup, campaigns then transmit a tailored message to mobilize them and get out the vote. It is used by United States Republican and Democratic political parties and candidates to track individual voters and identify potential supporters. Karl Rove popularized it, used often now to not mobilize the wrong group

Frontloading

The recent pattern of states holding primaries early in order to maximize their media attention and political influence. Three-fourths of the presidential primaries are now held between February and mid-March. Front-loading is the strategic advantage given to the earliest of primaries and caucuses during the first stages of a presidential election cycle. More specifically, front-loading refers to the disproportionate benefit given to the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Set earlier than all of the others, these two races set the bar in the presidential nomination process. You can hardly expect to become President if you are unable to win in at least one of those places. It is for this reason that candidates running for president spend an incredible amount of time and money trying to win over the hearts and minds of Iowans and those living in New Hampshire. The silliness of such pandering may explain why so many Americans opt out of participating at all.

Expert Opinion or Checklist Forecasts

These are predictors for who will win an election. Expert opinion comes from Washington insiders or political experts who have solid insight on how to call an election. Checklist Forecast is the notion that there are several determinates, such as personality, leadership, and mood of country which

Minimal Effects Conundrum

Those who are most open to persuasion by campaign information are least likely to pay attention to it

Index of Political Predisposition*

Three variables have the most impact: SES(socio economic status)[edu, income, class] , religion, and rural/urban residence determine party/ideology, vote, and media use (strongly/moderately/slightly republican/democratic A general measure of how various subsets of the population are leaning in terms of partisanship before the election has even begun or campaigning has begun. -Party ID is the number one determinant of election voting and is one theory for the minimal effects theseis of campaigns. -Index used in many statistical models

Models of Representation

Trustee - free agent, vote according to his own beliefs DELEGATE - Role played by an elected representa-tive who votes the way his or her con-stituents would want, regardless of personal opinions OR Representative Two main models: trustee and delegate Trustee: Constituents elect their representatives, entrusting them with their decisions. They give the representative enough autonomy, believing that they will make the correct decisions for the constituency. Generally tied to retrospective voting, seeing whether they have done a good job in the past Delegate: Constituents elect their representatives expecting them to carry out all their wishes and demands. The representative should essentially provide mimetic responsiveness. Tied to prospective voting, see whether the candidates have similar beliefs. Two smaller models:

King Caucus

Up until 1820, presidential candidates were nominated by caucuses of the two parties in Congress, but in 1824, this idea was overthrown., Andrew Jackson's term for selection process of candidates Beginning in 1796, caucuses of the parties' congressional delegations met informally to nominate their presidential and vice presidential candidates, leaving the general public with no direct input. 1800-1824, 1800 parties start meeting together to decide who best to organize electoral votes around. Members of Congress meet to recommend nominees, effectively violates democratic spirit as Congress picks

Front-Runner Strategy

Use the advantage one has in name recognition, funds, support, media to immediately spend a lot in early states. Defeat the competition from the start to discourage others from joining and prevent anyone from having a chance to gain momentum. Build an insurmountable lead and seem like the inevitable candidate, strongest strategy when at the start and gap is perceived widest

Contrast Ads*

What kinds of advertisements both criticize an opponent and advocate policies of the sponsoring candidate *Reading* Also good to target wedge issues, as they increase campaign context and distinguish different points to certain constituencies. Hillygus and Shields

Focus Group

a form of qualitative research in which a group of people are asked about their perceptions, opinions, beliefs, and attitudes towards a product, service, concept, advertisement, idea, or packaging. IN politics, they are used to measure receptiveness to a political ad or even during a presidential debate to see how people respond to what candidates are saying. Good focus groups have a similar demographic breakdown to the overall population. SIG: Show candidates where they need to get better. Popularized with Lee Atwater in 1988 HW Bush campaign, as they knew to focus on Dukakis' weaknesses in certain areas.

Confirmation Bias

a tendency to search for information that supports our preconceptions and to ignore or distort contradictory evidence

Convergence*

after primary, candidates converge to center (where the median voter is) Issue convergence reading**Thesis that states that political parties and candidates will gravitate towards issues that matter more to the electorate, but will hold different views on them. Implications: Median voter theory that they will have to appeal to the moderate voter. Different from the current polarization we are experiencing as more and more people disagree, gravitate towards different sides. Buell and Sigelman - The authors' definition of issue convergence is "when both sides take conflicting positions on most issues, thereby illuminating their differences" (26)

Matching Funds

contributions of up to $250 are matched from the Presidential Election Campaign Fund to candidates for the presidential nomination who qualify and agree to meet various conditions, such as limiting their overall spending. Only candidates seeking nomination by a political party to the office of President are eligible to receive primary matching funds. In addition, a candidate must establish eligibility by showing broad-based public support. In a nutshell, primary candidates may receive federal funding for their campaign, but in the process, they lose much of the freedom to spend what/where they want. 2008 Obama went without matching funds to self-finance, enough money through website donations, grassroots support Meant to lower the amount of money in politics, especially with some programs in some elections now that will amplify small donation amounts, meant to increase voter outreach, concentrate less on campaign finance.

Invisible Primary

early attempts to raise money, line up campaign consultants, generate media attention, and get commitments for support even before candidates announce they are running the first phrase of the presidential nomination process, where candidates attempt to gain front-runner status and raise the most money

New Hampshire Primary

first-in-the-nation presidential cote differing from the Iowa caucus because it is a secret ballot where voters used ballots and where registered voters and nonaffiliated Independents can vote. Envy as state receives more attention, more money, economic boost, more influence in the primaries and perhaps special favors. Controversy because it is not very representative, white, rural

Commission on Presidential Debates

is a bipartisan group that chooses the location, schedule, and format of the debates

Help Americans Vote Act

mandates that all states and localities upgrade many aspects of their election procedures, including their voting machines, registration processes and poll worker training HAVA; created after 2000 election to have standardized election procedures and electronic equipment Created in response to the 2000 election when over a million votes were discounted. This act updated the voting systems, new training programs for poll volunteers and administrators, new simple ballots. Controversy over the id requirements which are substantial and provide a burden onto voters, decreases turnout

Operation Dixie

not Failed post war campaign by Congress of Industrial Organization to unionize Southern industries. Southern Strategy

"There you go again"

presidential debate in 1980-witty remark making Jimmy Carter look like he is going off on a tangent about the problems of American in the wrong way

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission

sc overturned BCRAs limits on PAC fundraising . said that PACs that donate to specific candidates must operate under limits but PACs that don't are not corporations have 1st amendment right to support political candidates Case allowed corporations, individuals to spend unlimited on elections, namely issue ads. Implications: Money in politics, the effect of big money as one person or a few people can now control the media and shape narrative Rise of negativity in politics, Geer "Negativity in Presidential Campaigns," more ads now because issue ads don't rely on crafting an image of candidate Arguments over corruption, over one person having more of a voice. Importance of campaigning for money is now arguably higher and lower, at lower offices one backer can be all set, while now there is a fight for elite support.

Minimal Effects Thesis

states that political campaigns only marginally persuade and convert voters. In political science, the minimal effects hypothesis states that political campaigns only marginally persuade and convert voters. The hypothesis was formulated during early research into voting behavior between the 1940s and the 1960s. Reasons sighted for why campaigns do not matter are early vote decisions, partisan electorate and retrospective voting. (voting solely based of success/failure of incumbent party) SIG: According to this thesis, campaigns should be more about mobilization and getting the base to the polls, not be concerned with swing voters. (1) media has little impact on public opinion. (2) People ignore information with which they disagree. (3) People absorb information with which they agree. 4) Initial finding of research on media shows that it has only subtle effects.=People have attitudes / predispositions that are hard to move, so media has little effect in changing a voters view or stance on issues

Iowa Caucus

the 1st-in-the-nation pres preference vote usually held in Jan or early Feb. The results reflect the organizational ability and strength of pres candidates. The majority of candidates who win the Iowa caucus go on to win the party's nomination.

Median Voter Theory

the idea that a vote maximizing politician in a two party system will be close to the middle so that there is little difference between candidates, and the preferences of the median voter will be represented. In a majority rule voting system, the candidate that most embodies the views of the median voter in the middle will win the election. -Candidates move towards the center -Deliberative responsiveness -More moderate candidates

Elector

the people who actually vote as part of the 538 people, electors chosen by state parties, those slate go to vote when party wins.

External Validity

vs internal.The extent to which the results of a study can be generalized to other situations and other people. Measure of how good the survey is, can we generalize from survey respondents to the overall population? Involves having a representative survey, correct sampling frame Implications: Problems faced by pollsters include low response rates, unrepresentative samples, difficulty of getting a good sample frame with enough coverage, short time frames, determining turnout rates, likely voters Opt-in surveys are bad (fixed many times by asking about voting history Todd Rogers Adan Acevedo)