Thinking Fast and Slow

Use math as an example to explain system 1 and system 2.

2+2 uses system 1 17*24 uses system 2

How does hindsight bias lead to the 'illusion of understanding'?

Because we think we know the past, we think that we can predict the future. We will feel that our intuition is truer than fact . (I.e someone predicted the stock market crash but did not know it. but when it happened, the hunches became proofs.) This tendency to revise one's beliefs in light of what actually happened produces a robust cognitive illusion. This becomes an illusion because when the outcome is bad, we blame others when in actuality we can't because it was a "hunch" and not a known fact until after

Examples of system 1 thinking?

Choosing a seat in a waiting room,

It takes courage to contradict people higher in organizational hierarchy than you are. But it's in an organization's interest to consider a wide range of ideas, and it would be nice to have organizational procedures in place to encourage them to be voiced, and not simply to depend on the courage of underlings. What's the strategy recommended by people like Kahneman, designed to reduce the need for such courage?

Gary Klein's "premortem" method: an organization would gather its team before making a final decision on an important matter. Then all the members are asked to imagine that the decision led to a failure and write up why it was a disaster. This allows people to group think and gives them permission to search for potential problems.

What are some limitations of System 2?

In order for system 2 thinking to kick in, the individual needs to be focused and paying attention. This can be energy draining.

Sometimes we can trust the intuitions of experts; sometimes we shouldn't and should be more willing to use artificial formulas instead. How do we tell these times apart?

In reference to the example in class where health professionals were to choose programs, in which highlighted positives and negatives, the professionals chose the ones with positives. But on the flip side in the second situations, they chose different. This shows that we shouldn't always trust the intuitions of experts. We should only trust experts when the expert is in an environment that is sufficently regular to be predictable and the expert has learned these regularites through prolonged practice/

'Confirmation bias' is a term used to refer to our tendency to seek evidence that confirms beliefs we've already committed to. Kahneman also identifies something he calls 'a bias to believe and confirm' that is slightly different from traditional confirmation bias. How is it different? (Hint: it has to do with what we're confirming; we're not confirming a belief we're committed to. In fact, his leading example has this bias at work when we're exposed to a belief we haven't even considered before.)

It deals with something we're confirming. We're not confirming a belief we're committed to. In fact, his leading example has this bias at work when we're exposed to a belief we haven't even considered before

Examples of system 2 thinking?

Making a pros and cons list, choosing a college, or choosing a home

What are the characteristics of system 1?

Quick, biased, making decisions on little information, detects simple relations, does not deal with multiple distinct topics at once

What are the characteristics of system 2?

Slow, analytical

How are systems 1 and systems 2 related to confirmation bias?

System 1 is gullible and biased to believe. System 2 is in charge of doubting and unbelieving but sometimes gets busy or lazy.

What are some unhelpful aspects of System 1?

System 1 is prone to bias and systematical errors.

What's the difference between System 1 and System 2?

System 1 is the 'fast' thinking and requires basically no effort, while system 2 is the 'slow' thinking that requires effort.

What are the two types of systems?

System 1: the fast, automatic and sometimes unconscious way of thinking (ie. first impressions) It is autonomous and efficient, requiring little energy or attention, but is prone to biases and systematic errors System 2: is an effortful, slow and controlled way of thinking.It requires energy and can't work without attention but, once engaged, it has the ability to filter the instincts of System 1.(ie. budgets)

What's good about System 2?

System 2 is able to monitor and control information that system 1 brings in. And because of this, unlike system 1, system 2 thinking is more likely to have "rational" decisions

What can system 2 do that system 1 cannot?

System 2 is the only one that can follow rules, compare objects on several attributes, and make deliberate choices between options. System 2 can "task set" (program a memory to override habitual responses)

What's good about System 1?

Things that are good about system 1: speed of thinking. System 1 operates automatically, and processes information fast.

What is the anchoring effect?

This is the subconscious phenomenon of making incorrect estimates due to previously heard quantities. (ie. people feel that 35 mph is fast in comparison to 10mph, but 35 mph is slow compared to the freeway at 65 mph)

What is WYSIATI? How is it a feature of System 1 thinking?

WYSIATI = What You See Is All There Is. This is when we use the information that we see as the only information. It is a feature to system 1 thinking because WYSIATI doesn't rely on thinking about other possibilities. Instead of looking for more information, WYSIATI makes do with the information that they see.

What is the associative machine?

When things influence our judgment or behavior due to association with what we're doing or told to do. We are not even aware that this is happening. Ex: A person who is asked to smile finds jokes funnier. There is also a thing called 'associative coherence' which is when we make associations between events, circumstances, and regular occurrences. And it fuels the person by making them think "That was so weird it couldn't have been just chance"

Give a specific example, in a specific context or circumstance, of System 1 leading us astray.

When walking into the street, we may see a man beating up a a ragged looking individual and think that he's a low-life picking on the poor, and so we call the cops on him. But in actuality he was retrieving an older woman's purse that the guy stole.

How does the illusion of understanding lead to overconfidence?

factors that contribute to overconfidence: being dazzled by one's own brilliance, affiliating with like minded peers, and overvaluing the record of wins and ignoring losses. This leads to the illusion of understanding because basing validity of a judgement on the subjective experience of confidence rather than objective facts. CONFIDENCE IS NO MEASURE OF ACCURACY.

What is hindsight bias? Give an example.

is a term used in psychology to explain the tendency of people to overestimate their ability to have predicted an outcome that could not possibly have been predicted. Ex: When an individual looks outside and notices that it's gray. Then says, "I feel like it's going to rain this afternoon". And when it does actually rain, the individual tells himself that he was certain.

What is the halo effect?

the tendency for an impression created in one area to influence opinion in another area. (i.e disliking or liking everything about a person

What is confirmation bias?

the tendency to accept supporting evidence to one's belief to confirm it, and dismiss other evidence that go against it.