Topic 16: Global Climate Change

What is the IPCC? When was it created? What is its objective? What are its predictions about the global climate change?

1988: IPCC - created by the UN and WMO Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rejected uniform "harmonized policies" in favor of flexibility called for "legally binding mid-term targets" Prediction: ?? Reduction is to be from 1990 levels and achieved by 2008-2012 (average)

Explain the main elements of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.

1992: Framework Convention on Climatic Change (FCCC) Goal: to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Applies to GHG generally Developed countries accept primary responsibility for the climate change problem and agree to take first steps to address it Developed countries aim to return GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000

How do Earth Systems interact with Human Systems in the Global Climate change issue? (discuss socio-economic development, climate process drivers, impacts and vulnerability, and the responses, such adaptation and mitigation). Take a position in developing your answer.

Impacts and Vulnerability: As populations continue to increase with no relent, demands/impacts on resources and the environment increase. Without proactive and preventative measures by the entire population, a heavier load is placed on resources and the environment. In regard to global climate change, it is not yet determined if global climate change is naturally-occurring or is directly caused by human interaction, but without a determining factor, we must make a decision to take action. GHG emissions are the largest known issue behind global climate change. Such responses for action follow: Responses: Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change.The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of climate change, or spontaneous, i.e., without government intervention

What are the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto?

May be offset by "flexibility mechanisms" emission trading (purchasing credits from countries that have more than exceeded their limits) joint implementation (investing in emission saving projects in other developed countries) clean development mechanism (investing in emission saving projects in developing countries)

What are the potential causes of global climate change? What are its potential consequences?

Potential causes are: (1) human expansion of the greenhouse effect. (2) A naturally occurring cycle. Potential consequences are: (1) Earth will become warmer, some regions may welcome warmer temperatures, but others may not. (2) Also, warmer conditions will probably lead to more evaporation and precipitation overall, but individual regions will vary, some becoming wetter and others dryer. (3) A stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and partially melt glaciers and other ice, increasing sea level. (4) Meanwhile, some crops and other plants may respond favorably to increased atmospheric CO2, growing more vigorously and using water more efficiently. At the same time, higher temperatures and shifting climate patterns may change the areas where crops grow best and affect the makeup of natural plant communities.

What is Kyoto Protocol? When was it adopted? What are the requirements under the Kyoto? What are the benefits and drawbacks of the Protocol?

Pros Advocates of Kyoto claim that reducing GHG emissions is an essential step in slowing or reversing global warming, and that immediate multinational collaboration is needed if the world is to have any serious hope of preventing devastating climate changes Scientists agree that even a small increase in the average global temperature would lead to significant climate and weather changes, and profoundly affect plant, animal and human life on earth Cons Arguments against the Kyoto Protocol generally fall into three categories: it demands too much; achieves too little; or it is unnecessary George Bush rejecting it claimed that the treaty requirements would harm the U.S. economy, leading to high economic losses. Bush also objected to the exemption for developing nation Some people believe there is no real evidence of global warming due to human activity Kyoto divided world into two camps, developed and nondeveloped. Only developed countries were forced to reduce their emissions (Annex 1) while nondeveloped countries were not required to do anything (Annex 2)

Explain the controversy about the global climate change. What do skeptics say? How do they explain their stance?

They disagree that: global warming (gm) is a serious problem warming trends "can be, in large part, attributed to human activity." human activity has significantly contributed to hurricanes the US gov't is not doing enough about global warming international agreements such as the preposterous Kyoto Protocol provide a useful framework for addressing global climate change Important Questions How and what are the consequences? How quickly/when will these consequences occur? How will other non-climatic systems (ecosystem, biosphere) respond to climatic change?

What are the two types of scientific errors with regard to global climate change?

Type 1: to conclude that there is a significant human imprint on the global climate when there is none. Type 2: to fail to detect a significant human imprint on the global climate when one actually exists

Name and briefly explain at least three points in scientific uncertainty about global climate change.

o How much- how much will we see, how much global climate change will happen o How fast- when are we going to see these consequences? o How other non-climate systems will respond to climate change

What are the major challenges for the international community in trying to develop a new climate change regime?

political division between developed and developing countries complexity: the need to negotiate multiple global and diverse issues risk of instilling liabilities and problems that are too big and deeply rooted in global governance in institutions very large and diverse number of participants

Are we facing global warming, global cooling, or extreme weather variability, or all of the above?

temperatures are rising on average globally variability of climatic conditions is increasing there may be unexpected consequences of climate change In the Southeast of the U.S. forests are likely to experience major species shifts or break up into a mosaic of grasslands, wetlands, and forests "projections suggest that the SE US will be warmer (2-4 degrees C) and between 20% wetter to 10% drier than the present by the end of the 21st century. "Models also project more frequent El Nino-like conditions with natural extreme rainfall event frequency."