Weather Prediction Final Studyguide

You need a minimum of a _______ difference between the lake and 850mb to get lake effect snow.

13° C

When trying to identify whether a deformation zone will setup, you really want to look for convergence/frontogenesis between:

850 mb and 700 mb

Which of the following 850mb temperatures would lead a good forecaster to use LOWER steering winds in his/her lake effect snow forecast. Assume the lake temperature is 5° C.

850mb temp of -18° C

Which of the follow model data is NOT available on Bufkit?

European

Which of the following processes could cool the atmosphere so that rain could change to snow during a marginal precipitation event?

Evaporation, Upward Vertical Motion (Omega), Melting, Convection

A deformation zone guarantees CSI banding will occur.

False

CSI banding only occurs during winter weather.

False

What do you want your forecast sounding overlay interval to be in?

Feet

Lake effect snow only occurs in?

Lake effect snow can occur in several places across the U.S.

Which of the following set of conditions would mostly likely be associated with the highest snow to liquid ratio (most fluffy snow)?

Light winds and a surface temperature near 15° F

What is the most likely snow ratio for KSTL on 8z Thursday (hour 8)?

Lower 20's

What is the most likely snow ratio for KBGM on 16z Tuesday (hour 28)?

Lower Teens

What is the most likely snow ratio for KOSH on 5z Saturday (hour 17)?

Lower Teens

What is the most likely snow ratio for KEAU on 5z Wednesday (hour 17)?

Mid 20's

What is the most likely snow ratio for KORD on 0z Friday (hour 12)?

Near 10:1

What is the most likely snow ratio for KAMA on 6z Tuesday (hour 18)?

Near 30:1 +

What liquid to snow ratio should you use to convert the QPF to a snowfall amount in Jackson, MS for a storm that developed in the northern Gulf of Mexico?

Not enough information is provided to determine the ratio

What data page did I use in the tutorial?

Penn State

What causes hole punch clouds?

Planes

What is a feature I never use in Bufkit?

Precip Types

Which process is primarily responsible for increasing the density of dendritic crystals below the snow growth region?

Riming

Which of the following is conducive to the production of abundant dendritic (high ratio) snowflakes?

Strong upward vertical motion (omega) in the snow growth region

Which of the following will impact whether snow accumulates on roads and sidewalks?

Sun Angle, Ground Temperature, Air Temperature

Which of the following will cause an increase in snow to liquid ratios (more fluffy snow)?

Surface temperatures cool from 32° F to 14° F and the altitude of the snow growth region lowers

Why didn't the surface winds converge over Lake Erie during the mesovortex case study?

The lake was completely frozen over

The planes causing the hole punch clouds in the mesovortex case study were taking off from?

Toronto

What button should you click on to watch many more in depth tutorials on Bufkit?

Training

Planes have a large reduction in pressure behind the wing.

True

What is the most likely snow ratio for KBOS on 6z Tuesday (hour 42)?

Under 5:1

What is the most likely snow ratio for KCMX on 0z Thursday (hour 36)?

Upper 20's

What is the most likely snow ratio for KFYV on 19z Wednesday (hour 13)?

Upper 20's

Which of the following is the MOST important consideration to determine WHERE lake effect will occur?

Wind Direction

What happens when you right click on the right side of the forecast sounding?

You start to expand (zoom out) your screen

What happens when you left click on the right side of the forecast sounding?

You start to shrink (zoom in) your screen

What is the one thing I warned you to be careful with in Bufkit?

Zooming in/out too much

Lake effect snow is a _______ event, where _______ is often the key to differentiating a major vs. minor event.

convective / duration

The heaviest lake effect snow associated with Lake Ontario occurs to the _______ of the lake.

east

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KBGM at 17z Tuesday (hour 29)?

freezing rain / drizzle

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KJAN at 5z Wednesday (hour 29)?

freezing rain / drizzle

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KLAN at 23z Tuesday (hour 11)?

freezing rain / drizzle

A deformation zone is typically found __________ of the track of the low.

northwest

If the winds are _______ to the lake axis, then you will tend to have _______ band of heavy snow.

parallel / a single

Planes adds __________ to the atmosphere, which activate ice nuclei.

pollutants

If the WBZ height is higher than approximately 1,000 feet above the surface, precipitation will most likely be __________ at the surface.

rain

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KBOS at 18z Tuesday (hour 24)?

rain / drizzle

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KCLE at 17z Saturday (hour 29)?

rain / drizzle

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KSTV at 8z Monday (hour 80)?

rain / drizzle

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KERI at 12z Sunday (hour 36)?

sleet

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KGSP at 3z Saturday (hour 39)?

sleet

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KMDT at 10z Tuesday (hour 16)?

sleet

What is the most likely type of precipitation for KCLE at 19z Saturday (hour 31)?

snow

On average lake effect snow is __________.

very fluffy (high snow ratios)

When CSI exists, the atmosphere is _______ stable to _______ displacement, but _______ unstable to _______ motion.

weakly / vertical, conditionally / slantwise

Assuming all lake effect ingredients are in place, if you are on the east side of a lake, you would need _______ to produce lake effect snow at your location.

westerly winds

You have a 13° C difference between the lake and 850mb. What is your lake index?

0

The nuclei that ice crystals grow upon do not activate until approximately __________.

-10° C

The 850 mb temperature is -19° C. Based on this information, you should use the __________ wind direction to best forecast the orientation of lake effect snow bands.

-12° C Prime SGR

You have a 26° C difference between the lake and 850mb. What is your lake index?

-13

What famous nor'easter did I use as an example why you always want to follow upstream conditions closely when forecasting.

1979 Presidents' Day Storm

The heaviest lake effect snow occurs about __________ inland from the shoreline.

20-30 miles

The air can cool behind a plane (jet) up to __________.

20° C

What is the most likely snow to liquid ratio from a sounding in which there is a deep snow growth region and the bottom of the snow growth region is at the earth's surface (light winds)?

30 to 1 +

What was the highest water temperature in Lake Erie?

32° F

What was the highest water temperature in Lake Ontario?

38° F

If the melting layer is thicker than __________ feet, total melting will likely occur regardless of Tmax.

4500

The surface temperature is -0.1° C, there is an isothermal layer near 0° C for about 7,000 feet, and the bottom of the snow growth region is around 13,000 feet. Which of the following is the most likely snow to liquid ratio for the description above?

6 to 1

What is the most likely snow ratio for KSBN on 6z Saturday (hour 18)?

6:1 to 8:1

How much snow should you forecast with a QPF of 0.3 inches and a snow to liquid ratio of 30 to 1?

9"

CSI banding would be most likely with which of the following low pressure systems?

975 mb

You need __________ change in wind direction between the surface and 850mb to get lake effect snow.

< 30 degrees

A lake induced equilibrium level _______ could lead to advisory criteria, where _______ could lead to warning criteria.

> 5,000 feet / > 10,000 feet

On average you need a fetch _______ to produce lake effect snow.

> 60 miles

Boundary layer relative humidity values _______ is ideal for lake effect snow, where boundary layer relative humidity values _______ will inhibit lake effect snow.

> 80% / < 70%

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of lake effect snow?

All of the above are characteristics of lake effect snow

What type of cloud deck was present during the mesovortex case study?

Altocumulus

Which of the following is a TRUE statement?

An increase in the height of the lake induced equilibrium level will lead to an increase in the intensity of the lake effect snow (assuming all other ingredients remain favorable)

Which of the following is the best tool to use as a forecaster with lake effect snow?

Bufkit

What is the newest version of Bufkit?

Bufkit 19

What is the sequence for loading a file into Bufkit?

Click archive, then load, then select all files, then double click the file you want

Why did the surface winds converge over Lake Ontario during the mesovortex case study?

Cold land and relatively warm water, Very cold air aloft, The lake was not completely frozen over