5. Geography Climate Change
Transport - Airlines
Solution: Based upon time separation. cross winds, lightning (thunderstorms), head winds are bad, jet stream will change, westbound flights could improve time.
Energy efficiency and conservation
To reduce consumption. Building regulations ensure new buildings confirm to minimum standards of heat insulation and ratios of windows/door space to floor area. Energy performance certificates needed for all buildings built since 2008. Financial incentives for homeowners to insulate lofts and cavity walls.
Mitigation
tackling the root cause e.g. tackling root cause
How was Kyoto made fair?
ACs has the most money and power so they can change their production methods and reduce ghgs. US withdrew in 2001 "because it would gravely damage the US economy". Introduce legally binding agreements to reduce CC.
Accommodation - Hazard Awareness
Better awareness and education about hazards such as storms and heatwaves. People are able to prepare and lessen potential impacts (ACs) New building codes will help to deal with the effects of extreme heat and cold. Health education(LICs) will help to limit the spread of water-borne diseases.
Transport - Rivers
Boat armbands - make boats higher
UK strategies to reduce GHG emissions
Carbon budgets - setting carbon budgets as stepping stones towards 2050 target. Smart meters - reducing the demand for energy using domestic smart meters, promoting energy efficiency e.g. insulation. Low carbon technologies - Investing in low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture and storage and encouraging growth of renewables. Carbon taxes - Switch electricity generation from coal to greener fuel. In 2010, there were 10 coal power stations and responsible for 1/5 of emissions.
Accommodation - Managing Water Supply
Climate change will cause more droughts and more floods. Patterns of water supply will change and need careful management. LIDCs and Rural areas are likely to be worst affected. Himalayas, 16, 000 glaciers are receding. Threatens long-term of security of water supply. Ladakh, India water is collected in winter and it freezes. Glacier melts will provide water for local villages. Ice stupas. (7 months)
Reforestation and forest conservation
Deforestation is responsible for 1/5 of global carbon emissions. Reforestation and conservation are the cheapest and most effective strategies against climate change. REDD scheme - gives financial value to carbon stored forests which provides incentives to conserve forests.
History to the debate
Discovered 1824 - Fourier said WV and CO2 trap heat escaping from earth. - Glacials associated with periods of low CO2. 1896 - Arrhenius discovered CO2 absorbs long-wave radiation. Doubling CO2 would created a 5-6C temp rise. 1938 - Callender linked global warming to fossil fuel consumption. 1957 - Discovered that absorption of CO2 was limited. 1958 - Accurate measurements of CO2 began in Hawaii provided evidence for the increase.
EU and CC.
ECCP - first launched in 2000, targets set for GHG emissions reductions to 2050. Aiming for EU low-carbon economy. 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020. 20% of electricity by renewables. 20% improvement in energy efficiency. Individual policies for each EU state.
EU strategy to reduce emissions
ETS (covers 45% of EU emissions) Cap and trade scheme Targets 21% reduction in emissions from: power stations, industry and aviation by 2020. National emissions reduction targets (other 55% of EU emissions)
Milankovitch 3 Cycle Theory
Eccentricity - Eccentricity of the orbit varies over periods of 96,000 to 413,000 years. With maximum eccentricity, differences in solar radiation receipt of around 30% occur between perhielion and aphelion. Ice ages correspond to periods at max orbital eccentricity. Obliquity - Over a period of 40,000 years, the earth tilts varies from 22° to 23.4°. Closer 22° summers are cool and winters the warm. This leads to snow and ice not melting meaning the ice sheets and glaciers can expand. This means more reflection of solar radiation. Precession of the equinoxes - Earth rotates on its axis like a spinning top, meaning that the point in the earth's orbit when the planet is closest to the sun, the perihelion, will change over time. Precession occurs every 22,000 years. Gravitational influence from the moon and Jupiter is what causes the precession. If it occurs in northern hemisphere winter, winters will be warmer, summers cooler.
Implications of cc for people and the environment
Ecosystems - Climate shaping habitats that support animals and plants. Some plants and animals adapt to change, more highly specialised or geographically isolated, face decline and extinction. Marine ecosystems - Coral reefs are treated by bleaching caused by higher SSTS. Last 30-40 years, Indonesia has lost half of its reefs. Shrinking of sea ice have decimated ice algae, which are base of marine food chain. Disappearance of sea ice is the main reason for the projected 2/3 decline in polar bear population. Terrestrial ecosystems - Temps rising faster in tundra than any other ecosystem: phenology, the study of changes in the timing of spring. Tree line advancing further north. Little egrets have colonised south Britain.
Climate change and Health Promotion
Government has established a Climate change and Health Promotion to: Research new diseases, inform and educate populations about the risks. t
Implications of cc currently experienced by environment
Health, Disease - Overall, cc is likely to have a negative effect on human health e.g. spread of malaria Health, food supply - High temps increases the risk of food contamination Heat island effect - Heatwaves expected to occur with greater frequency in future. Extreme weather - Global warming is predicted to disrupt regional weather patterns. Storm surges - More powerful tropical cyclones which generate huge storm surges Rainfall patterns/storms - Heavier rainfall, associated with depressions and thunderstorms Droughts - Droughts and floods reduce crop yields Desertification - Have endured numerous droughts Terrestrial ecosystems - Temps are rising faster in the tundra than any other ecosystem
Implications of cc for people and the environment 2
Human health - Climate change is likely to have a negative effect on human health. Who forecasts 250,00 deaths a year worldwide due to spread of infectious diseases malnutrition and diarrhoea. Climate change will stimulate the transmission of vector borne diseases like malaria and their geographic range. Mosquitoes thrive in warm, wet conditions. Extreme weather - Global warming is predicted to disrupt regional weather patterns. Extreme weather events such as storms, droughts and heatwaves are to occur with greater frequency and intensity. Heavier rainfall will cause floods. More powerful tropic cyclones will generate huge storm surges and affect people in low-lying coastal areas. Droughts will ultimately lead to water shortages.
Methods used to reconstruct the earth past climate
Ice cores (✓) contain air which records the gaseous composition at the time of freezing (✓) Lower frequency of hydrogen and oxygen atoms suggest colder climate. (✓) Tree rings (✓) show the age of trees as well as the climatic conditions (✓) - the wider the ring the more growth due to warmer climate and more moisture availability. (✓) Fossils of plants and animals (✓) can be used to suggest what the climate was like (✓) as plants and animals require specific conditions to survive. (✓) Sea-floor sediments (✓) are made up of shells of foraminifera (✓), the chemical composition of which can be used to indicate ocean temperature (✓). Lake sediments (✓) contain pollen, spores and diatoms which can be used to infer climatic conditions (✓) based on vegetation types. (✓) Varves can be Only two methods can be credited. used to identify seasonal variations. (✓)
3 Major reasons for increased GHG emissions
Increased energy demand due to industrialisation - Fossil fuels supply 87% of the worlds energy. 2/3 of GHG emissions come from fossil fuels - 10 bill tonnes annually. China and India powered by coal. Coal releases double the CO2 than gas. Today 40% of the planets surface used for agriculture compared to 7% in 1700. Massive population growth (1.8Bn in 1800 to 7.4Bn in 2015) - USA same emissions as China, Russia. Germany and the UK. Top ten CO2 emitting countries account for nearly 80% of emissions. USA and Australia 17 tonnes/year. Land-use change - deforestation, urban development - Without natural greenhouse effect - average temp would be 34C cooler. CO2 from 280ppm in 1800 to over 400ppm today.
Evidence the World has warmed since the late 19th century 2
Increasing atmospheric water vapour - Water vapour is the most important ghg. Traps huge amounts of energy radiated from Earth - natural greenhouse effect. Amount of WV in the atmosphere is directly related to temp and rates of evaporation. Large concentrations of WV will amplify the effects of warming by positive feedback. Decreasing snow cover and sea ice - Satellite measures decline in snow cover by 2% since 1966. Snow has a high albedo, reflecting 70-80% of incoming solar radiation. Diminishing snow cover increases the absorption of solar radiation. Artic sea ice in winter cover 17-20 million km2 in summer covers 4-6 million km2. Artic sea ice has declined in thickness from 3.6m in 1980 to 1.9m 30 years later.
The Greenhouse energy balance and human activity
Increasing concentrations of ghgs absorb a larger proportion of terrestrial radiation. Returned to surface = increasing temps. Rising global temp increases evaporation, transfer more latent heat to the atmosphere and increase concentrations of water vapour, the most important ghg. Rising global temps, melt snow, sea ice, reducing Albedo and the reflection of solar radiation, adding heat energy to the Earth's atmosphere. Deforestation also reduces the albedos, increasing absorption.
Evidence the World has warmed since the late 19th century
Increasing in global temperatures - Consistent rise in global and ocean temps. Accurate records of global and ocean temps began in 1880. Rising temps have been the trend for the last 135 years. Every year since 1977 has recorded above average. 2014 was the 38th consecutive year that average temps was above average, while 9 of the 10 warmest years have happened in the 20th century. Shrinking valley glaciers and ice sheets - Valley glaciers have retreated. This trend will continue in the Alps, Valley glaciers may shrink by 80-90%. Between 1961 and 2005 thickness of small glaciers decreased by 12m, equivalent to 9000km3 of water. Ocean warming in 2002, the Larsen Ice Shelf 3250km2. Rising sea level - Since 1900, average sea level rise by 1 - 2.5mm/year. Thermal expansion of the oceans as the world's climate warms. The melting of land-based ice sheets to glaciers.
The key 2C change
It is thought that any increase than 2C will cause irreversible change. Knock on impacts on global oceanic circulation. Carbon release from soils, permafrost and undersea stores.
Accommodation - agricultural adaptations
Low lying conditions e.g. Bangladesh Drought resistant crop types, grow in different seasons New irrigation systems - drip irrigation Educating farmers in water harvesting techniques Using trees to provide shade for crops New cropping patterns to cope with changes from crops to livestock Zero tillage
Agricultural adaptations
Middle Latitudes e.g. Europe, USA Greater productions of crops such as wheat Growth of new crop types such as wine, olives or citrus fruit in areas which were previously too cool
Natural forcing and climate change in the geological past - volcanic eruptions, continental drift, change in ocean circulation and fluctuations in atmospheric CO2.
Milankovitch cycles - Milankovitch argued that long-term climatic shifts are caused by astronomical events such as changes in the Earth's tilt. Affect the amount of solar radiation reaching the planet. Vary from 10,000 to 100,000 years. Volcanic eruptions - explosive eruptions pumped huge amounts of volcanic ash and sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere. Sulphur dioxide can have a cooling effect. Sulphur dioxide is converted into sulphuric acid which forms sulphate aerosols which reflects solar radiation back into space and lower temperature in the troposphere. Mt Pinatubo in the philippines in 1991 injected 20 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide, and cooled the Earth's climate by 1.3°C. Plate tectonics and continental drift - Time of Pangea, warmer - when fragmentation occurred this lead to massive changes in land distribution and ocean atmospheric circulation. Collision between plates have triggered change, 35 million years ago, plate carrying India pushed under the Asian plate creating the Himalayas - affected global wind patterns.
Mitigation and adaption
Mitigation - aim to reduce GHG emissions and tackle causes of global warming and cc. Adaption - anticipating the adverse effects of cc, taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise potential damage.
The Greenhouse effect
Natural situation in which heat is retained in Earth's atmosphere by carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, and other gases
Carbon Capture and Storage
New technology. Extracts CO2 emitted by coal fired power stations and stores it underground. Different storage locations used e.g. old oil wells. Limited by costs and limited by suitable storage sites.
GHG facts
Nitrous Oxide will stay in our atmosphere for 120 years. Halocarbons contribute to greenhouse effect for 50,000 years. Methane stays in atmosphere for 12 yard, but 25x stronger than CO2. CO2 will trap heat for 100 years.
Natural forcing and climate change in the geological past 2
Ocean circulation - Transferring surplus energy (warm water) from the tropics to the poles. Continental drift can modify ocean circulation, 5 million years ago, closed the gateway between the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. Believed to of strengthened the Gulf Stream and the global conveyor thermo- halide circulation. Natural greenhouse gases - Solar output - Sunspots are areas of the sun which release more energy but are cooler. Positive correlation between the number of sunspots and solar output. Difference in energy output between maximum and minimum activity is 0.01%. Little Ice Age, Maunder Minimum. Past 50 years, sunspots activity has been high, thus correlating with the warming of the climate.
Fuel shifts and low-carbon energy sources
Overall decline in energy consumption since 2005. Reduction in use of coal and oil 1990-2014. Renewable energy has grown. UK must conform with EU's Renewable energy policy of 15% electricity from renewables. Strategy: to develop more wind power in offshore locations. Close coal-fired power stations. Convert some coal-fire power stations to biofuels. Use green subsidies to encourage use of wind and solar power. Continue to develop nuclear power.
Why is there a debate about climate changed?
Politics - will focus on what gets them votes. Power - Countries have more power than others. Fossil fuel creates energy for the country. Timescale - Effects are so long away, won't cause serious change in near future. Don't believe it - cuz so long away. Economics - Fossil fuels drives economies. More interested in money. More interested in economy than environment. Fear - Future generations scared of what could happen/impacts in the future. Lack of evidence - Proxy indicators, not many sources of evidence but no measure of data before 1850. Lack of data - Not enough records, short period of collecting data. Not fully accurate results hard to calculate emissions.
Retreat strategies
Populations in coastal and river areas are at risk from cc impacts - flooding, erosion, extreme weather events, rising sea level. Coasts - managed realignment - settlements further inland and at less risk. Rivers - land use zoning can prevent flood damage by locating vulnerable buildings and activities well above the floodplain.
Climate Change vs the Media
Possible media agendas regarding cc? A culture of fear, make people aware, economically driven, politically driven? Mainstream media more influential than scientific papers? Accessible language, more people read news on social media than scientific journals, medical can influence younger people. Stance on right-leaning newspapers (times) take on cc? Right wing because more people disagree with cc and agree with deniers. Stance on left-leaning newspapers (guardian) take on cc? Left wing - believers. BBC accused of what? False balance, disproportionate coverage to sceptics. Who stands to gain the most from cc? Energy industries, oil and gas companies.
Protection
Protect land and people from potential impacts. ACs - Sea wall - sea level rise. Thames flood barrier - sea level and floods. Levees - protecting against flooding. LICs - salt marshes, afforestation, reservoir (sand dams) Both - Mosquitoe nets, pesticides, anti-malaria médecine, sewage treatment
Coastal Mangrove Protection
Provides a natural barrier at the cost against erosion and storm surges. Threatened by clearance for farming, firewood, and shrimp farming. Locals are education about their benefits and encouraged to preserve them.
Transport railways
Raise railway line, stronger sea walls (2014, Dawlish Waren, Devon), better materials because of heat.
Accommodation - Managing Water Supply 2
Reducing leakage. (37% of water is lost to leakage in Rio) Recycling waste water and using grey-water for gardens and toilets. Increasing reservoir capacity for greater storage, desalinisation of saltwater, inter-basin water transfer schemes. More efficient irrigation, drilling tube wells.
Adaption strategies to reduce the vulnerability of human populations at risk from climate change
Retreat - just give up, let the land behind flood. Protect - sea wall, rock armour, if sea levels rise. Accommodate - living with consequences, find ways to live around it.
Mean global sea level changes
Sea level will rise due to thermal expansion, melting ice caps on land. Ice loss is due to surface melting. Constant rise since IR. 1901 - 1990 was 1.5mm/year rise. 1990 - 2010 was 3mm/yr rise. Depending on the trajectory of GHG emissions. Projections for 2100. Optimistic = 0.28m. Pessimistic = 0.98m.
Climate Change - National and Sub-National Policies DENMARK
Set own ambitious targets to reduce GHG emissions: - Interim 40% reduction by 020 - All energy from renewables by 2050 MITIGATION - How: · Phase out fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy - wind and solar. · Introduce carbon taxes to reduce fossil fuel demand · Tax exemptions for hydrogen cell and electric cars · Cheaper public transport, railway electrification and promotion of cycling. · Control methane produced by livestock (how?) and fertilisers ADAPTATION- How: · Climate-proof neighbourhoods - better storm drains and flood protection · Storm barriers, dykes and buildings raised by 1m platforms - on shorelines vulnerable to storm surges · More areas of open water, vegetation and shade - to counteract extreme summer temperatures and the urban heat island effect These strategies aim to avoid disasters, but can be bolstered by extra schemes such as sandbags, pumps etc if needed.
Vulnerability to CC
Subsistence farming - Most rural communities in the developing world are subsistence. Rely on rainfall for crops. CC will make rainfall less predictable and will cause floods and droughts. These will effect marginal environments. Environment - The majority depend on direct rainfall for the successful but cc will make rainfall more erratic, floods and droughts will be more frequent Desertification - Over-cultivation and excessive exploitation of soil, water and pasture resources. Exacerbated by prolonged droughts. Water - 98% of world's glaciers are retreating, regions rely on glacial meltwater for irrigation. Artic - Global warming is most rapid in Artic. Age and health - Inequality and poverty of a global scale mean those at greater risks are concentrated in poorest countries. Low lying land - Sea level rise. Bangladesh. Sub-tropics are vulnerable to flooding caused by a combination of rising sea level and more powerful tropical storms.
Transport roads
Tarmac melting, potholes, better quality of roads/plastic roads, to improve maintenance/concrete around foundations.
Mean global temp changes
The global temp predictions by the IPCC. RCP 2.6. RCP 8.5. The most likely scenario sees a rise of 2C.
The Quaternary and the Holocene
The quaternary geological period was from 2.5 million to present. The holocene geological period was from the last 10,000 years. Quaternary climate change: The cycle changes in climate. Cooler periods (glacials) were interrupted by warmer periods (interglacials) Holocene Climate change: Holocene is an interglacial period. Ice sheets and glaciers have shrunk and are found only at high altitudes and high latitudes. Sea level has risen > 100m. Warming has not been continuous. Recent climate change and "the hockey stick" - Recent change is believed to be due to the influence of human activity instead of 'natural forcing'. Industrialisation leading to increases emissions of "greenhouse gases" is thought to be the main cause, as well as changes in farming methods.
Future emission scenarios and their impact
There are four Representative Concerntrain Pathways used for climate modelling and research. Describe 4 possible climate futures (depending on how GHG are emitted).
Greenhouse Gases and their impact on the climate
They warm earth and the atmosphere. They intercept the outward radiation which re-radiate back to the surface and to the atmosphere. The primary GHG's are: Water vapour, CO2 and Methane. These gases all absorb infrared radiation and this traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere. CO2 and Methane play a very crucial role in the earths climate, without these gases the earth would be a much cooler place. Our current situation is escalating in danger as these sorts of gases are at disequilibrium and threaten to drastically change where living organisms can survive. CO2 makes up for 75% of all GHGs. Nearly half of the atmospheric increase of CO2 has occurred since 1960. Methane are much smaller particles and are measured in Parts per billion. The measuring of methane began in 1984 where there were 1735 ppb. Methane represent roughly 15% of all GHG emissions. Blocks heat from escaping. Periods of ice house earth (global cooler temperatures) such as the past 3 million years correspond with low CO2 levels.
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Top 10 countries account for 70% of all emissions. China (26%) USA (14%) EU (10%) India (6.5%) Russia (5%) Japan (3%) Brazil (2%) Indonesia (1.5%) Canada (1.5%) Mexico (1.5%).
Geoengineering
Use of technology to modify the environment. Reducing amount of insolation absorbed by the earth and its atmosphere, removing of CO2 from the atmosphere. Increased reflection reduces amount of energy absorbed. Scatter aerosols that will reflect sunlight back into space. To fertilise oceans with nutrients such as iron. Extracting CO2 from atmosphere using artificial trees. Enhanced weathering (abundant silicate mineral rock, olivine) will react absorb CO2 creating carbonates
Adaption
living with the consequences
1) Which type of country will see lesser economic impacts? 2) What will be a knock-on-impact of spending money on adapting to climate change? 3) What type of industry do most LIDCs depend upon? 4) Why will this make it harder for them to adapt? 5) What will be the consequences of this? 6) Give examples of areas which may be forced to abandon farming? 7) What will be te overall economic outcome?
1) ACs 2) Will limit investment elsewhere and weaken economic growth 3) Agriculture, tourism 4) Unable to adapt to drought, and shifting rainfall patterns 5) Abandonment of farming 6) Asia, African countries, Bangladesh 7) Loss of economic growth, rising prices, inflation, unemployment, food insecurity, declining exports - cost of mitigation £60 trillion a year. As developed countries are spending more money on adaptation strategies it means less resources and money go to the less developed countries in form of aid.
CC and the role of governments and international organisations - 1992
1979 - The first World Climate conference takes place 1988 - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is set up. 1990 - The IPCC call for a global treaty on climate change. 1991 - First meeting of the intergovernmental negotiation committee takes place. 1992 - Earth summit in Rio (first realisation we are are messing up planet) , the UNFCCC is opened for signature.
India vs GHG emissions
2014 CC conference India stated it would not reduce emissions. Own plan (NAPCC). India refused to ratify the Kyoto protocol. Believed rich countries should be responsible for reduction of carbon emissions. USA therefore also refused to ratty protocol. - Indian per capita energy consumption (1.7 tonnes) was well below global average (5 tonnes). - Priorities were poverty alleviation and expensing access to electricity. - Current high GHG levels were due to previous industrialisation and economics growth, India not responsible.
1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
41 Countries part of the International Treaty (190 countries) Considered possible actions to limit CC. This convention lead to creation of Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Legally binding emission targets were set to reduce ghg emissions. 192 signed the Kyoto protocol but some countries never ratified treaty - USA and China. Phase 1 was until 2012, Phase 2 is 2013-20.
Climate Change Facts:
"If this trend continues, temps may rise by 3-5C by 2100. If temps carry on to rise: Sea levels will rise, ocean temperatures and acidity will increase and our ability to grow crops, such as rice, maize and wheat, would be in danger. Almost 400 all-time high temperatures were set in the northern hemisphere during the summer of 2019. The countries emitting the most greenhouse gases by quite a long way are China and the US. Together they account for more than 40% of the global total. Some 84 of the world's 100 fastest-growing cities face "extreme" risks from rising temperatures and extreme weather brought on by climate change.
Glaciation of Antartica
- CO2 levels dropped abruptly thirty five million years ago from 1000-1200 ppm to 600-700 ppm. - Continental drift: the movement of Antarctica towards the south pole and away from South America isolated the continent.
Anthropocene
A new geological epoch, epoch to represent the latest period of geological time, where humans have had the greatest influence on the environment.
