AP Gov: Unit 2: Public Opinion and Polling

Problems with Elections

-Data is not accurate because only VOTERS participate

Elections

-Initiatives -Referendums

Literary Digest Poll Error

-Literary Digest mailed postcards to potential voters and predicted every election from 1920 to 1932 Famously was unable to predict 1936 because of three errors

Problems with polling: In-Person

-No one stops in the mall/theater -No one opens doors

Push Poll Questions

-Questions that are deliberately phrased to give information to public -Usually negative Ex: Poll question about McCain's "illegitimate black child" (actually an adopted Bangladeshi girl) cost him South Carolina during the 2000 Republican Primary

Polls

-Straw Polls -Scientific Polls

Problems with Polling

-Straw Polls: No sampling makes them NOT accurate -Scientific polls: Most are accurate but will have margin of error which can mislead in close races

1st Public Opinion Poll

-The first public opinion research goes back to July 24, 1824 (For Presidential Election) -The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian issued a report of a straw vote done at Wilmington, Del., "without discrimination of parties."

Attentive Public

-Those with an active interest in government and politics -Can government officials elected or not re-elected

Elite Public

-disproportionate amount of political resources. -raise issues and help set national agenda. -influence the resolution of issues.

Random Sampling

-everyone in population being surveyed has an equal chance to be sampled -much more accuarate

Stratified Polling

-grouping members of the population into relatively homogeneous subgroups before sampling. -The strata should be mutually exclusive: every element in the population must be assigned to only one stratum. -The strata should also be collectively exhaustive: no population element can be excluded

Accurate Poll

Does Not have "Advocacy" and 'Push Polls' which try to influence the outcome Look for reliable pollsters- not party polls

Problems with Quota Sampling

....

Three Errors Literary Digest Made

1. Sample drawn from upper class and wealthy only 2. Bad timing-Mailings went out in early September 3. Mailings were sent back by self-motivated individuals- the "self-selection" rule which invalidated the sample as random

The "Public" the government feels prudent to heed

1. The Elite 2. The Attentives 3. The Masses

Important Questions to Ponder

1. Who is in charge of creating policy? 2. How does Public Opinion Become Policy? 3. Are there politics involved? 4. How is reliable information gathered? 5. To whom should the "government" listen to?

Problems with polling: Telephone

Does not include cell phones

Dr. George Gallup

Father of modern polling

Little

American Public's interest and awareness in politics is____?

Two ways public opinion is measured

By elections By Polls

22%

Congress' s approval rating

Dr. George Gallup

Created new method known as "quota sampling"

Testimonial

Implied endorsements from celebrities. Example Question: Did you know that Pat Robertson does not believe John McCain will make a good president? Do you plan to vote for George Bush or John McCain in the Republican primary?

Random Sampling

In 1956 election quota sampling was replaced with...?

Uses of Scientific Polls

Inform the public. Inform candidates. Inform office-holders. Make election night predictions.

Contrast question or Sandwich question

Juxtaposing positive images of one's candidate with negative images of the competition's candidate. Example Question: Al Gore trusts the people of the United States, not big corporations. Do you believe Bush, who calls himself a "Compassionate Conservative" or Gore, who is fighting for the people not the powerful, will make a better president for most Americans?

Dr. George Gallup

Made an error in predicting the 1948 presidential election -prediction that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman by five to fifteen percentage -Truman WON by 4 percentage points

Accurate Poll

Must have: -Carefully Worded Questions -No bias and clearly differentiated alternatives -A poll that actually seeks the truth -Remember polls may be wrong!!!!

Mudslinging

Name-calling or groundless assertions about another candidate. Example Question: Do you favor the economic policies of the Democrats, which will preserve Social Security, or the policies of the Republicans, which will destroy our Social Security system and leave

Robo-Call

Newest Push Poll Tactic Ex: Anonymous robocall from Nevadan's answering machine criticized Obama for taking money from special interest groups

Problems with polling: Exit Polls

No one stops to talk with pollsters after election

Poll Question Bias vs Poll Error Methodology

Poll question Bias: Polls questions are phrased in a way to elicit a particular answer Poll Error Methodology: Polls exclude certain respondents so the data is not representative of the masses

Example of Polling skewing appearance of public opinion

Poll- asked what was the most important less of 9/11 > 61% of People said, "The US needs to work more closely w/other countries to fight terrorism How poll data was displayed- 61% of people favor active part for US in world affairs

Quota Sampling

Quota sampling is a non-probability sampling technique wherein the assembled sample has the same proportions of individuals as the entire population with respect to known characteristics, traits or focused phenomenon.

Scientific Poll

Random samples are taken WHERE everyone has an equal chance of being included

National Polls

Requires 1500-3000 respondents

Political Knowledge

Surveys show a substantial lack of________ on part of the public -identifying political figures -identifying key issues

Problems with polling: Tracking

Taken out of context they make no more sense than a single frame from a movie.

Types of Scientific Polls

Telephone In-Person Exit Polls Tracking Polls (shows results of issues over time)

Horse Race Polls (Mentality)

Tells who's up/down but not why (political stance of politicians is ignored) -emphasized during campaigns at expense of issues.

Prohibition on Robocalls

The Federal Trade Commission will now prohibit prerecorded commercial telemarketing calls to consumers unless the telemarketer has obtained permission in writing from consumers who want to receive such calls.

Effect of Push Polls (on McCain)

The allegation had no substance, but planted the idea of undisclosed allegations in the minds of thousands of primary voters

Sampling error

The margin of error is expressed in +/- terms -Can reduce sampling error by adding more respondents

Public Opinion

The opinions held by private persons which government feels it prudent to heed

Universe

The population that is measured for data

Horse Race Polls (Mentality)

This use of polls panders to candidates and office-holders.

Masses Public

Those with little interest in government and politics.

Perceptions of Iran

Trend: Younger Americans view Iran less of a critical threat than older Americans

Straw Polls

Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinions

Transfer

Use of popular symbols or causes to create a positive connotation for a candidate or the use of negative or controversial symbols and causes to create a negative connotation of the competition's candidate. Example Question: Knowing that Texas has one of the highest rates of child poverty in the US, who do you think will be the best candidate for president in 2000, Al Gore or George Bush?

Card-stacking

Use of statistics in a one-sided manner; the omission of information that is crucial to drawing an informed conclusion. Example: Democratic television ads showing former teachers and college administrators listing republican George Allen's failings concerning education. What the ads do not show is the reasoning behind why he didn't support certain bills, and that many of the former teachers and college administrators are disgruntled democrats who lost their appointed jobs under Allen's republican administration.

Glittering Generalities

Use of very vague words or phrases that may have a positive effect on the viewer and appeal to a variety of interests. Example Question: Do you believe that we need a Washington insider or a fresh new face from outside Washington to lead our country through the next four years?

Scientific Polls

Uses representative sampling methods

Initiatives

allow citizens to propose legislation and submit it to popular vote

Referendums

allows legislatures to submit proposed legislation for popular approval

Dr. George Gallup

predicted the outcome of the 1936 presidential election as a victory of Roosevelt over Landon with an error of 6.8 percent.