AREC365

Agriculture and Land Degradation

1 Soil erosion - nutrients removed from soil, increase in soil density, reduction in water retention and uneven terrain 2 Chemically unsuitable soil - depletion of nutrients, salinization and acidification of soil 3 Physically unsuitable soil - less porous soil makes it difficult for seeds to emerge

Income Distribution and Undernutrition

1 Undernutrition and Poverty have a strong positive correlation 2 Incomes affect demand for food 3 Incomes determine access to food, health care and other public services

Overnutrition

When a person consumes too many calories • Overnutrition can be caused by diets containing excess of saturated fats, salt and sugar • Overnutrition linked to high-income and lifestyle • It leads to problems like obesity, diabetes, hypertension and atherosclerosis • In 2014, 39% of the adults worldwide were overweight and 13% were obese

Secondary Malnutrition

When a person has a condition that prevents proper digestion of food. It can result in the following: • Loss of Appetite • Alteration of normal metabolism • Prevention of nutrient absorption • Diversion of nutrients to parasitic agents • Public health measures like sanitation and safe drinking-water can reduce secondary malnutrition

Agriculture and Green House Gas Emissions

Carbon dioxide from deforestation for agriculture • Methane and nitrous oxide - agricultural production and animal digestive processes Technological progress and scientific methods can reduce emissions (use of chemical fertilizer instead of manure)

Population Growth Trends (2005 to 2015)

Declining

All increase in expenditure on food by the poor goes towards buying calories (T or F)

False

Malthusian Argument

Famines are nature's way of responding to overpopulation Governments should not interfere in the market mechanisms even under famines

Sen's Argument

Famines are not always about lack of food Famines lead to starvation death because people do not have the ability to access food Democratic governments can and should intervene in famines to protect human lives

Famine

Famines refer to any localized, temporary and severe food shortage which can lead to • Starvation deaths • Long-term effects of undernutrition • Distress sale of assets and human beings • Poverty: can both cause and lead to famines

Incomes per-capita

GNP (or GDP) divided by the population

Underweight

Low Weight-for-Age • Measure of past or current undernutrition in children and adults • Composite measure - captures both stunting and wasting • Low birth weight: measure of health problems in the early weeks and months of life • Captures malnutrition in the mother during pregnancy • Low birth weight: measure of health problems in the early weeks and months of life • Captures malnutrition in the mother during pregnancy

Cross-Price elasticity:

Percentage change in demand in response to 1% change in price of some other good

Own-Price elasticity:

Percentage change in demand in response to 1% change in price of that good

Price Elasticity of Supply

Percentage change in output of a good (say wheat) in response to a 1% change in price

Income elasticity of demand

Percentage change in the consumption of a good (say wheat) when a 1% change in income occurs

Price Elasticity of demand

Percentage change in the consumption of a good (say wheat) when a 1% change in price occurs

4 Ps

Population Prosperity Pollution/Environmental resource quality Productivity in agriculture

Engel's Law

Proportion of household income spent on food declines as incomes rise

PPP

Purchasing Power Parity is a method of translating local currency into dollar equivalent by comparing the purchasing power of the local currency to the purchasing power of the dollar

Bennett's Law

Ratio of starchy foods to other foods falls as incomes rise

Which province in Pakistan was affected by the drought between 2013 and 2015?

Sindh

Trend With Child under 5 Health Outcomes (2010-2015)

Stunting: 26.1 to 23.2 Obese: 5.3% to 5.6%

Government & Famines

Technological Response Use of Early warnings Rapid responses Increasing Access to food Public distribution of food Reducing food prices Food aid measures like food stamps etc.

Famines Caused by Public Policy

The Bengal Famine 1943-44

Famines Caused by Lack of Access to Food

The Chinese Great Leap Forward 1959-61

Famines Caused by Crop Failure

The Irish Potato Famine, 1845

Paradox with nutrition and poverty

The extremely poor do not spend all of the increase in food-expenditure on buying calories

Ethiopia has achieved rapid economic growth in the past two decades (T or F)

True

Global population growth is declining between 2005 - 2015 (T or F)

True

True or False: Famines are preventable by suitable government policy?

True

In which city in India do Banerjee and Duflo conduct their surveys?

Udaipur > Only 57% of the people had enough to eat throughout the year • Body-mass Index (BMI) of the poor is 17.8 • 65% of adult men and 40% of adult women have a body mass index below 18.5 (definition of underweight according to WHO) • 72% report at least one symptom of disease • 43% have difficulty carrying out daily activities (working in the field, walking, or drawing water from a well)

Protein-Calorie Malnutrition

Underconsumption of proteins or calories - solved only by increasing the amount of food a person consumes • PCM can affect normal growth, health and activity • Extreme PCM can result in fatal disorders like kwashiorkor and marasmus • Directly related to income poverty - inability of people to meet basic needs • Rarely seen in income rich households

Anthropometric Assessment

science of measuring human body and its parts • Take measurements of the individual • Compare the individual to a reference group • Determine the nutritional status of the individual Determinants of reference group: standard against which growth and malnutrition of an individual can be judged • Measurements of other individuals of the same age • Measurements of other individuals of the same sex • Measurements of other individuals of the same ethnicity

BMI

weight (in kgs) in divided by the square of height (in meters) • Underweight: less than 18.5 • Normal: 18.5 - 25 • Overweight: 25 - 30 • Obese: above 30

Calories

are a measure of energy contained in food and are needed for • Involuntary functions like breathing, digestion and maintaining body temperature • Physical and mental activity • Fighting disease • Growth and development of the body

Protein

are the building blocks of the body and are needed for • Building cells that makes muscles, membranes, cartilage and hair • Carry oxygen throughout the body • Carry nutrients and assimilate food • Fight diseases • Work as enzymes to speed up digestion

Future of Food Demand

will be affected by 1 Population growth 2 Increase in Income 3 Dietary Diversification 4 Growth in non-food agricultural production (biofuels etc.) 5 Effect will be multiplicative particularly if income growth occurs in developing countries

Standard Deviation

z scores - measure the dispersion from the mean

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Area and Yields

• Agricultural Area: may result in a modest decline or even a slight increase globally. However, drainage and sea water intrusion will be a major problem • Agricultural Yields: Increase in carbon dioxide (positive for plant growth), higher temperatures (increase cropping area but lower yields), changes in rainfall (soil erosion), extreme meteorological events (uncertainty), Increase in tropospheric ozone (may offset yield effects) and pests and disease (insects thrive in higher temperatures)

Mother's Undernutrition

• Babies with low birth weights • Shortly after birth, babies with low birth weight die forty times more than normal babies • Mothers could be malnourished during her own infancy, childhood, adolescence or pregnancy • Underconsumption of nutrients important (poverty link)

Breast-Feeding and the Health of the Baby

• Baby's health improves significantly because of breast-feeding • Breast-milk builds immunity in babies • Twin benefits of breast milk in developing countries: sufficient and clean food supply • 1.5 million children die because they are not breast-fed in developing countries • Undernourished mothers are unable to produce sufficient breast-milk for their children natural contraceptive

Shifts in Supply Curves

• Changes in Availability of Inputs • Changes in Technology of Production • Changes in Efficiency of Resource Use

BMI & Mortality Relationship

• Costa and Stackel, 1997 used medical records of US Civil War veterans and found the 'U' shaped relationship • Hans Waaler discovered a clear U-shaped relationship between body shape and the risk of dying

Causes of famines

• Crop failure - due to adverse weather event or other factors • Lack of access (not availability) to food • Existing undernutrition • Public Policy in response to one or more of the above

Nature v. Nurture

• Dietary preferences: determined culturally • Gender roles: determined socially • Food Composition: determined financially • Public Health: determined nationally and sub-nationally

Income Distribution and Mobility

• Education can equalize income distribution • Population Growth can create greater inequality • Shift in population away from agriculture to Industry can reduce inequality

Ethiopia: Hunger and Under nutrition: Growth vs Food Security

• GDP growth averaging 10.3% a year between 2005 - 2006 and 2015 - 2016 • Between 1999 to 2015, Ethiopian poverty rate fell from 55.5% to 26.7% • In 2017 GDP per capita was USD 768 • About 85% of the population engages in small-holder farming • Agriculture accounts for 37% of GDP in 2016 Factors responsible for improvement in nutrition and health • Ethiopia's sustained economic growth has contributed to improvements in children's nutrition, including child stunting, child wasting, and underweight children • Increase in household expenditure on food and increased public spending on health, infrastructure, and other areas related to development • Government policies to promote agricultural productivity and food security in Tigray region, including the promotion of fertilizers and improved seeds, are associated with increased food availability and food self-sufficiency Hunger and under-nutrition among Ethiopians have decreased but remain extremely high • Ethiopia ranked 93 out of 119 countries in 2018 Global Hunger Index (GHI • An El Nin ̃o - induced drought worsened the food security situation in Ethiopia in 2016 - 2017 (FAO GIEWS 2017b) • Conflict in the Oromia and Somali regions in 2017 has led to the displacement of nearly 1 million people

Child health & under nutrition

• Increased Disease Incidence and Severity • High Infant and Child Mortality Rates • Mother's Nutrition, Breast-Feeding and Infant Health Nandy find that incidence of diarrhea was 72% more in undernourished children (suffering from stunting, wasting and underweight) • Nandy et al. (2005) find that the severity of diarrhea was 95% higher in the undernourished group

Human Development Index (HDI)

• Index measuring income, education and health in a country • Similar HDI but different GDP per-capita lower (South Africa and Nicaragua) • Different HDI but similar GDP per-capita higher (Kyrgyzstan and Lesotho) • Check both!

Water for Agricultural Production

• Irrigation is critical for food production (particularly rice crop eg. Bangladesh) • Yields higher on irrigated land (between 30 - 200 percent) than non-irrigated land • Expansion in irrigation may not be as fast as experts believed (Why?) • According to Wild, 2003 "shortage of water... is probably the biggest biological and physical limitation to agricultural development in developing countries" • Example - water tables are falling faster than they are renewed in northwestern states of India like Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi

Relative mortality risk

risk of dying for individuals of a given weight and height compared to the average of the entire population

Global Hunger Index (GHI)

- % underweight/undernourished -% wasting -% stunting -% under 5 mortality

Malnutrition

Overconsumption or underconsumption of an essential nutrient

Population Characteristics and Calorie Requirements

1 Age Structure - High calorie requirement for younger age groups (highest for 14 - 18 years) 2 Pregnancy - Increased calorie requirement during pregnancy and during breast-feeding 3 Physical Activity - Calorie requirements increase with physical activity (What should happen to future calorie requirements?) 4 Height - positively correlated with weight (What should happen to future calorie requirements?)

Population growth and increase in income can have a multiplicative effect on per-capita food demand

1 Assume the population of country K in 2019 is 1,000 people, per-capita income and food consumption are $1,000 2,000 calories respectively 2 Assume population grow at 5% and incomes grow by 10% per year 3 Assume income elasticity of demand is 0.5 4 Assume Engel's Law does not apply (K is a poor developing country)

Temperature, Sea Level changes and Global Warming

1 Expected Impacts of Temperature and Sea Level: between 1 - 2 degree centigrade rise in surface temperature and 0.24 - 0.3 meters rise in sea-level 2 Global Warming: Uneven changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, humidity and incidence of severe weather events

Income Inequality and Economic Growth

1 Inequality promotes growth - Incentives to work hard, aspire for a better life 2 Inequality does not promote growth - inequality weakens trust, networks and creates political tensions

Environment and the Future of Agriculture

1 Input Use like agricultural chemical use (chemical fertilizers and pesticides) - land degradation and water pollution 2 Water Quality and Public Health - water contamination by pesticides affects humans and wildlife 3 Land and water - constraints on food production (?)

Factors Affecting Food Production (output)

1 Quantity of available agricultural resources - land and water 2 Quality of agricultural resources 3 Intensity of input use on land 4 Technological change

Dietary Deficiency

A diet lacking sufficient amounts of one or more essential micronutrients like vitamins and minerals. For instance

Gini Coefficient

A measure of income inequality within a population, ranging from zero for complete equality, to one if one person has all the income.

Agriculture and Water Quality

Agricultural production can cause degradation of water quality • Groundwater irrigation causes water tables to drop • In coastal areas depletion of ground water can result in saltwater intrusion into the groundwater • Surface water affects ecology of rivers, lakes and oceans • Diversion of water for agriculture can affect chemical composition and fish population

Total Fertility Trend

All countries have decreased since 1970... Africa/L America decreased most... but Europe is least children per woman

Millennium Development Goals

Goal 1: hunger and nutrition - Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than USD 1.25 a day -Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people -Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger The proportion of undernourished people in the developing regions has fallen by almost half since 1990, from 23.3% in 1990 - 1992 to 12.9% in 2014 - 2016. • Extreme Poverty in the developing world (USD 1.25 per day) has declined significantly from over 50% in 1990 to 14% in 2015 Around 795 million people are undernourished globally • Nearly 90 million children under the age of 5 are underweight • Still more than 800 million people live in extreme poverty

Water Supply and Sanitation Trends (2004 to 2012)

Improved (safe drinking water more than safe sanitation services)

Studies with Poverty & Nutrition

In India, a $1 increase in total expenditure leads to 66 extra cents being spent on expenditure on food (Deaton and Subramanian, 1996) • In Brazil, a $1 dollar increase in total expenditure leads to 25 extra cents being spent on expenditure on food (Thomas and Strauss, 1997) • In India, spending on food went from 70% in 1983 to 62% in 1999 - 2000 (Banerjee and Duflo, 2007) • Poor consume fewer calories - less physical activity? (Jha, 2004) • Disease reduces gains made through increases in food consumption

Extreme Poverty

Individuals living in households where the consumption per capita is less than USD 1.08 per person per day in PPP terms are considered extremely poor (Banerjee and Duflo, 2007).

Poverty

Individuals living in households where the consumption per capita is less than USD 2.16 per person per day in PPP terms are considered poor (Banerjee and Duflo, 2007).

Availability of Food (per-capita) Trend (2000 to 2015)

North America decreased (highest though), Europe slight increase, Australia increase. world increase, Asia increase, Africa increase, South Asia increase (lowest)

Global Undernourishment Trend

On the rise since 2014

Life Expectancy at Birth Trend (2005 to 2015)

female & male: Asia, L. America, Europe, and World overall increased life expectancy - Africa is lowest, Europe highest Male: increased - africa lowest, Europe highest > lower expectancy than females Female: africa lowest, europe highest

Fat-Composition

body stores excess calories as fat • Mid-upper arm circumference can represent the nutritional status of the body • Children (1 - 5 years): greater than 14cm is normal • Children (1 - 5 years): between 12.5cm and 14cm is considered underweight

Deficiency of Iron

causes anemia, reduces physical and mental ability

Deficiency of Iodine

causes goiter and reduction in mental abilities

Deficiency of Vitamin A

causes night blindness, respiratory and gastrointestinal disease

Annual current-dollar Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

current value of all marketed goods and services newly produced (in a country) during a year

Biochemical Assessment

examination of bodily fluids for metabolic changes accompanying nutritional disorders • Blood and urine tests to capture short-term micronutrients deficiency

(MU) Clinical Assessment

examination of physical symptoms of nutritional disorders; Can be used to check for nutrient deficiency like vitamins and minerals

Deficiency of Zinc

impairs immune function

stunting

low HEIGHT for age • Symptom of past undernutrition • Symptom of poor fetal growth • Poor nutrition • Repeated infections in the first 2 years of a child's life • Economic recessions, war and gender rules may affect a nation's height

wasting

low weight for height • Measure of current undernutrition in children and adults • Body Mass Index (BMI): weight divided by the square of height in meters • BMI below 18.5 indicates undernutrition • 36% of adult Indian womens had BMI of less than 18.5 in 2012, (OECD, 2012)

Death Among children under five

neonatal causes

Dietary Assessment

survey of diets to assess nutritional status 1. Dietary Recall: Respondents asked to recall their food intake over a period of time People may find it hard to remember even in a short interval of time 2. Dietary Record: Individuals record their food consumption over a period of time Dressing of portion sizes and quantities to 'look good'

Lorenz Curve

the curve that illustrates income distribution

Food Supply Calculation (output)

total output= (output/acre) x number of acre

Agricultural Land

• Land under agricultural production is increasing slowly but steadily between 1960 - 1990 • Agricultural land use consists of arable and and pastures • Since 1990s agricultural land use became constant (did not change) • Total arable land increased till the 1980s and then declined • This decline corresponds to the increased demand for meat based food • 4.2 billion hectares of rain-fed land with cropping potential and only 1.6 billion hectares currently used • Only 2.9 billion hectares suitable for agriculture (rest is hilly or has poor soil etc.) • South Asia, Near East and North Africa have saturated their land reserves • Brazil, Congo have potential for expansion • Population, industrialization etc. pose competing claims on land use

Seasonality of Undernutrition

• Majority of people in developing counties engaged in agricultural production • Agriculture provides food, employment and employment • Even workers in urban areas depend on cheap availability of food • Undernutrition has a seasonal character - linked to agriculture (why?) • Two stages of agricultural production - growing (sowing) and harvest season • Price of food low after crop harvest - supply of food high • Price of food rises during growing season • Income and employment falls during growing season

Which social groups within countries are undernourished?

• Marginalized groups - religion, caste and ethnicity • Incomes, public services depend on social factors • Gender matters • Attention to nutrition, public services and maternal and child-care depend on social bias • South Asia vs Sub-Saharan Africa

Poverty & Savings - Uncertain and seasonal nature of earnings in agriculture and allied occupations - Why not save?

• Money may be stolen or lost • Temptation to increase consumption in both 'goods' and 'bads' • Saving options may not exist - absence of banks

Trends In Malnutrition

• Number of people undernourished globally has declined over time • In 1970s 960 million were undernourished which fell to 780 million in 2014-2016 in the developing world • In Asia the undernutrition fell from 41% to 18% in the last three decades • Progress in Africa has been sluggish between 1907 - 2000 (6% decline in undernutrition)

Nutrition and Labor Productivity

• Poor nutrition adversely affects labor productivity • Li et al. (1994) find that Chinese cotton-mill workers were able to work 14% more for each 1 gram increase in their hemoglobin • US Department of State (1976) show high correlation between nutritional status and physical work capacity • Anthropometric studies show that height-for-age measure is an important indicator of poor-nutrition - smaller adults are less productive • Nutrition =⇒ higher wages for low BMI levels (in Ghana but not in the US, why?)

Intellectual Development & Nutrition

• Poor nutrition has a negative effect on cognitive ability • Grantham-McGregor et al. (1999a, 1999b) find that negative nutritional impact can adversely impact intellectual development in later years of life • Mother's undernutrition during pregnancy can cause the baby to suffer from reduced intellectual capacity and cognitive functioning • Chronic malnutrition in children during the first two or three years of life can impair mental and physical development • Poor nutrition (short and long-term) has a negative effect on educational attainment • Levinger (1995) finds that US school children with low birth weights had problems succeeding in school • Galler (1986) find that undernourished children are four-times more likely to suffer from attention deficit disorder than well-well nourished children • Characteristics include decreased attention span, impaired memory, high destractibility, restlessness and disobedience • Glewwe et al. (1999) and several others show that nutritional status affects test-scores

Pakistan : Inequality and Drought

• Population - 300 million with 58% adult literacy rate • In the 2017 Global Hunger Index, Pakistan ranked 106 out of 119 countries • In the province of Sindh, where 50% of children under the age of five were stunted and 19% suffered from wasting (Aga Khan University, 2011) • 39% live below the national poverty line • Between 2013 and 2015, the southern province of Sindh suffered from a severe drought To combat the drought, public projects were needed which increase the availability of drinking water, boosting household income, and facilitating access to a nutritious diet, however, • Inequality in agricultural landowning - reduces income for those with small plots of land or landless workers • Unequal power dynamics and social norms on women and girls - restrictions on movement, early marriage and pregnancies • Inequality within the household - control over assets, decision-making and access to markets • Inequality related to the distribution of resources and aid between regions - allocation of public funds

Shifts in Demand Curves

• Population growth • Changes in Income • Changes in Income Distribution • Changes in Tastes and Preferences

Protein v. Calorie Deficiency

• Protein is scarce relative to carbohydrates and fats • Protein is more expensive than carbohydrates • But, calorie deficiency is more prevalent across the developing world (why?) • Traditional sources of protein like pulses, dairy and beans are not expensive and a part of diets

Is there a trade-off between production and the environment?

• Role of technology: Increase in productivity • Examples - Tilting and landscapping, drip irrigation etc. • Technological progress can also reduce the dependence on agricultural inputs • Example - research on plants that can survive on brackish water

The physical effects of undernutrition

• Stunting • Wasting • Underweight • Fat Composition of the Body • Nature vs Nurture

Undernutrition & Disease

• Undernutrition weakens muscles - heart and lungs diseases • Inability to fight infections - weakens the immune system • Inability to fight dehydration • Nutrition is correlated with complications in existing diseases • Correia and Waitzberg (2003) show linkages between undernutrition and the incidence and severity of disease was well as death

Changes in Dietary Preferences and Food Demand

• With increase in income people consume more animal protein (What Law is this?) • In 2011 18% of the calorie requirement was met by animal products • I calorie worth of animal product requires several calories of grains • So, increase in incomes will cause per-capita calorie requirements to rise through two channels • Increase in incomes changes dietary preferences • More plant calories are required to produce 1 calorie of animal protein