Chapter 6: Public Opinion

sampling error

The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll. The more people interviewed, the more confident one can be of the results. (3 points error)

Power of public opinion

- informs and educates the public - empowers the public: makes the people feel like they got there voices/opinions heard - checks on policy makers: shows policy makers what the public wants and pressures them to do it due to the fact of re-election - conditionally guides public policy: when people are united and activated, policy makers are pressured to act

why public opinion matters

-citizens political actions (voting, contributing to campaigns, writing letters to senators) examine public opinion -helps explain the behavior of candidates, political parties(Politicians look to public option to determine what citizens want) -its key to understanding what motivates citizens and public officials(shed light on specific policy outcomes) *1) data on public opinion influences government and elections 2) public opinion determines politician stances 3) public opinion is key to understanding citizen motivation*

How is public opinion measured?

-polls (take the 'pulse' of the people) can be written, verbal aka over phone, or online - Election outcomes - voting Public opinion about American institutions is measured in public approval ratings rather than in questions of choice between positions or candidates. Approval ratings are generally not stable

public opinion effects

1) Elections; are the events on which opinion polls have the greatest measured effect. 2) Polling is also at the heart of horserace coverage, in which, just like an announcer at the racetrack, the media calls out every candidate's move through out the presidential campaign. Horse race coverage can be neutral, positive, or negative, depending upon what polls or facts are covered 3)Public opinion polls also affect how much money candidates receive in campaign donations.

Government vs public opinion

1) Government does not want to do what the people want ; The public is not perfectly informed about politics, so politicians realize public opinion may not always be the right choice. 2) No one "public opinion" presidents do not consistently listen to public opinion it is clear that public opinion has a less powerful effect on the courts than on the other branches and on politicians.Perhaps this is due to the lack of elections or justices' lifetime tenure, or perhaps we have not determined the best way to measure the effects of public opinion on the Court.

measuring public opinion

1) Selecting the best sample; Size of sample matters, Margin of error must be low, WHO you are asking must be appropriate. (If you are asking how people feel about Ted cruz as a Texas senator, you must poll TEXANS.) The sample but represent the selection as a whole. It needs to be randomized and REPRESENTATIVE. (ex. many polling houses will interview only respondents who have a history of voting in previous elections, because those voters are more likely to go to the polls on Election Day.) 2) Keep in mind that there can always be MEASUREMENT ERRORS Sample must be representative of the population otherwise you get a sampling error The sample size is usually between 1,000-1,500 people. Pollsters do not interview more respondents than necessary, however If random sample is 1,500 people there is a 95% change of accuracy leaving the sampling error at 2-3% (+ or -)

measurement errors for public opinion

1) Social desirability: in the wording of polls or ones own want to vote a desirable way to avoid sounding like a jerk. 2) Subjective interpretation: connotation is different. People could misinterpret the question 3) Question Wording: could be biased. You don't want to prime an individual 4) Question order; questions before hand or after hand can lead people to select a certain answer 5) Interviewer effect/bias; one can be ashamed of ones views or be influenced by interviewer who is asking the questions. 6) Events (in world/in life): current worldly events could change peoples opinion 7) tendency to pick a random option. People tend to do this more nowadays then just refuse to admit that they don't know what they are talking about. 8) Timing; surprise events can shift enough opinions to change an election result.

experiences that affect public opinion

1) heuristics 2) Research; learning background information before making a decision. Candidates, parties, and campaigns put out a large array of information to sway potential voters, and the media provide wide coverage, all of which is readily available online and elsewhere Opinions based on heuristics rather than research are more likely to change when the cue changes. If a voter begins listening to a new source of information or moves to a new town, the influences and cues he or she meets will change. Even if the voter is diligently looking for information to make an informed decision, demographic cues matter. Age, gender, race, and socio-economic status will shape our opinions because they are apart of our everyday reality, and they become part of our barometer on whether a leader or government is performing well.

Influences on Ideology (and Public opinion)

1)Family and Friends: A parent's political orientation often affects the political orientation of his or her child. Friends and peers too have a socializing effect on citizens. Communication networks are based on trust and common interests, so when we receive information from friends and neighbors, we often readily accept it because we trust them. 2)Religion: Religion leaders often teach on matters of life, death, punishment, and obligation, which translates into views on political issues such as abortion, euthanasia, the death penalty, and military involvement abroad. 3) Media: Media—newspapers, television, radio, and the Internet—also socialize citizens through the information they provide. For a long time, the media served as gatekeepers of our information, creating reality by choosing what to present. Another way the media socializes audiences is through framing, or choosing the way information is presented. Media information presented as fact can contain covert or overt political material. 4) Teachers: the lessons are idealized and do not discuss many of the specific problems or controversies connected with historical figures and moments. George Washington's contributions as our first president are highlighted but teachers are unlikely to mention that he owned slaves. *The socialization process leaves citizens with attitudes and beliefs that create a personal ideology. In the end, the way we prioritize our beliefs and what we decide is most important to us determines whether we are on the liberal or conservative end of the political spectrum, or somewhere in between.* IDEOLOGY, UNLIKE VALUES AND BELIEFS, ARE EASILY SWAYED BY CURRENT EVENTS. IDEOLOGIES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE POLARIZED.

Poll Errors

1. Sampling Error 2. Selection Effects 3. Measurement Error 4. Question Types (leading/framing/bias) 5. Inaccurate timing ( the voter changed her/his mind) 6. Lack of participant knowledge on polled issue 7. Participant deception (lies about what they actually think because they are scared of being judged or hated) national polls with less than 1,000 people are not accurate. State/city polls are accurate if they have less than 1000 but still, the more the merrier

representative sample

A sample that reflects the characteristics of the population from which it is drawn a group of respondents demographically similar to the population of interest

Deliberative Polling

A technique that brings people together to discuss issues with experts and other citizens in order to arrive at more informed opinions

push poll

A type of poll that attempts to influence opinions secretly using a poll (would you vote for McCain if you knew that he had a black, illegitimate child?) politically biased campaign information presented as a poll in order to change minds

horserace coverage

Campaigns focus on the race and not the policy stands (i.e. they focus on strategy and likelihood it will pass and not substance) day-to-day media coverage of candidate performance in the election

Government vs. Politics

G- facts, the concrete institutions.(WHAT WHO AND HOW of politics) P- opinions, the process and ideas about how the institution should work. (WHY of politics)

wisdom of crowds

Idea that a group of individuals will collectively have more insight than a single or small group of trained professionals (Jury theorem)

Influences on Public Opinion/Ideology

MAIN THREE: 1) Government 2) Private groups 3) Media and internet (fake news. CNN vs FOX) 4) Education. Teacher influence. 5) socialization ( pledge of allegiance in public schools, Teacher failing to mention certain facts about founding fathers to preserve the love and respect for the country) 6) personal experience 7) State political cultures can affect the ideology and opinions of those who live in or move to them 8) Workplace groups such as professional organizations or unions can also influence opinions. media, gradual social and economic change, focusing events, attitudes, values, and beliefs, government, private groups, experience AND MORE! A parent's political orientation often affects the political orientation of his or her child.

public opinion

Public opinion is a collection of popular views about something, perhaps a person, a local or national event, or a new idea. How an nations pop. collectively views vital policy issues and evaluates politics leaders IMPORTANT FOR DEMOCRACY. represents the pulse of the people and shows people's beliefs and attitudes. examines how the public feels or thinks, so politicians can use the information to make decisions about their future legislative votes, campaign messages, or propaganda.

internal efficacy

The belief that one can understand politics and therefore participate in politics "Do I as an individual understand what is the problem?" ATTITUDE BASED

external efficacy

The belief that one is effective when participating in politics, for example, that the government will respond to one's demands "Do my actions change the external world?" BEHAVIOR/ACTION BASED

mandate to govern or mandate theory of elections

The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics. Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do. politicians don't exactly respond to public opinion relates to Presidents ability to executive orders. Also many may disagree, the president has the right to do so anyway.

rational public thesis

The view that democracies are more peaceful because their foreign policies reflect the desires of an inherently rational and peaceful public.

polarization of public opinion

Today, polling agencies have noticed that citizens' beliefs have become far more polarized, or widely opposed, over the last decade. members of one party see government from a very different perspective than the members of the other party Over the years, Democrats and Republicans have moved further apart in their beliefs about the role of government.

margin of error

a number that states how far the poll results may be from the actual preferences of the total population of citizens ( a good poll is usually 3 points + or -) presidential election polls have a 6 point + or - difference

Public Opinion Polling

a poll taken by sampling a cross-section of the public in an effort to predict election results or to estimate public attitudes on issues. *Used to predict election results and measure public opinion on issues *Frequently used by politicians to develop campaign strategy and influence their positions *Modern public opinion polling began in the 1930s with George Gallup GOOD POLLS HAVE ATLEAST 1000-1500 RESPONDENTS larger samples= more accurate responces/opinions THERE ARE LOTS OF WAYS POLLS CAN BE BIASED. - Who and How many respondents were questioned and how they were chosen matters - margin of error matters - Whats the source? Who obtained this information EVERY POLL HAS A POPULATION IF INTEREST, SAMPLE, DIVERSITY, and REPRESENTATIVENESS

leading questions

a question that prompts or encourages the desired answer.

agent of political socialization

a source of political information intended to help citizens understand how to act in their political system and how to make decisions on political matters. The information may help a citizen decide how to vote, where to donate money, or how to protest decisions made by the government. MOST PROMINENT IS FAMILY, FRIENDS, RELIGION, AND SCHOOL. a person or entity that teaches and influences others about politics through use of information.

Which of the following is not part of a scientific poll design? a. a leading question b. a random sample c. a representative sample d. a low margin of error

a. a leading question

Why are social policies controversial? a. They require people to accept the authority of the government. b. They require the government to balance the rights and liberties of different groups. c. They require the government to increase spending. d. They require a decrease in regulations and laws.

b.They require government to balance the rights and liberties of different groups.

How do polls affect presidential elections? a. Polls help voters research information about each of the candidates. b. Polls tell voters the issues that candidates support. c. Polls identify the top candidates and the media interview those candidates. d. Polls explain which candidates should win the election.

c.Polls identify the top candidates and the media interview those candidates.

political culture

commonly shared attitudes, beliefs, and core values about how government should operate the prevailing political attitudes and beliefs within a society or region

Which body of government is least susceptible to public opinion polls? a. the president b. U.S. Senate c. U.S. House of Representatives d. U.S. Supreme Court

d. U.S. Supreme Court

Which of the following is not an agent of political socialization? a. a family member b. a religious leader c. a teacher d. a U.S. senator

d. a U.S. senator

statistical sampling

involves choosing part of a population of interest for inspection ex. if the goal is to project who will win the presidency, citizens from across the United States should be interviewed. If we wish to understand how voters in Colorado will vote on a proposition, the population of respondents should only be Colorado residents

Condorcet's Jury Theorem

mathematical way of looking at politics, if the probability of choosing the right answer is greater than 0.5 then the larger the group the greater the probability that they will choose the right answer; if the probability is less than 0.5 then the larger the group the greater the probability that they will choose the wrong answer the majority of a jury would more likely reach the right decision in a trial than would a single individual who heard the same evidence more opinions is "better" than one opinion

random sample

method of selecting from a population in which each person has an equal probability of being selected a limited number of people from the overall population selected in such a way that each has an equal chance of being chosen ex. random phone polls spread across the country

Politicians and Public Opinion

polls are a good way for american's to let politicians know that they want ( ex. president approval rating) politicians don't often do what the public opinion wants and often deny polls to prevent their decision from being swayed they using polling to shape their responses to issues and help them craft a message that will be more acceptable to the public polls help state issues that seem to matter to americans, therefore giving politicians something to run their campaign off of

exit poll

public opinion surveys used by major media pollsters to predict electoral winners with speed and precision are conducted in person with an interviewer standing near a polling location and requesting information as voters leave the polls

heuristics

shortcuts or rules of thumb for decision making used to form an opinion about an issue or candidate. Republicans tend to vote for things that stand next to party ideals to make decisions Gender, race, socio-economic status, and interest-group affiliation also serve as heuristics for decision making. ex) political party membership

political socialization

the process by which people gain their political attitudes and opinions (standing for the National anthem, Reciting the pledge of allegiance every school morning in K-12) the process of learning the norms and practices of a political system through others and societal institutions (influenced through media or parental values)

rational ignorance

the state of being uninformed about politics because of the cost in time and energy most Americans don't know or care to know what goes on in politics. They are so easily swayed

characteristics of public opinion

uninformed: the general public is typically unaware of public policy and tend to just agree with a particular party. That's why and how push polls and leading are able to pressure people into voting a particular way non-ideological/inconsistent: The is grey area in political parties. It is very rare for an individual to truly represent and support the standards of the political party. There are independents that neither completely republican nor democratic which makes it hard to get along and pass policy that will please everyone Stable (as a whole): when more questions are provided within polls, peoples opinions tend to balance out due to the difference in ideologies

Framers on Public Opinion

were somewhat skeptical of the ability of the average american to understand and influence public policy, so they gave americans direct influence only over one part of the government; House of Reps ignorant masses were not to be fully trusted