Climate Change Test
Identify the main four greenhouse gases that are directly associated with human activities and for each of these gases, explain why their atmospheric concentrations have been increasing in the industrial era.
Carbon dioxide- has increased from fossil fuel use in transportation, building heating and cooling, and the manufacture of cement and other goods. Methane- has increased as a result of himan activites related to agriculture, natural gas distribution and landfills. It is also released from natural processes in wetlands. Nitrous oxide- Is emitted by human activities like fertilizer use and fossil fuel burning. Halocarbons- Have increased primarily due to human activities. Principal halocarbons include the chlorofluorocarbons were used extensively as refrigeration agents and in other industrial processes before their presence in the atmosphere was found to cause stratospheric ozone depletion.
Why is "common sense" a problem when addressing scientific questions?
Common sense fools us into thinking we understand when we may not. They can be helpful like assumptions, but it is too easily fooled to be trusted for decisions about complex topics with high stakes.
What is confirmation bias, why are we susceptible to it, and how does it influence the way we think about climate change?
Confirmation bias is the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories. We try and experiment with hypothesis that will work, and when they do, we don't take into account reasons how the experiment could be falsified or proven wrong. You have to actively seek to break your conclusion and find the holes or the information gathered isn't entirely valid.
What point does Craven make by asking you (the reader) to answer the question: What would you have to see for your opinion to change?
Craven makes the point that a lot of us form a certain opinion on a subject and no matter what we hear coming from either side of the debate, we choose not to be swayed or change our opinions. He asks this question because we should be seeking ways from many different sources with an open mind, and then form our opinions.
What is the difference between gasoline and crude oil?
Crude oil or petroleum, is pumped out of the ground and hasn't gone through any processing or refineries. It has to be changed into other products before it can be used. Gasoline is refined petroleum used as fuel for internal combustion engines.
What is a denialist?
Denialist: a person who does not acknowledge the truth of a concept or proposition that is supported by the majority of scientific or historical evidence; a denier.
What is an alarmist?
Alarmist: someone who is considered to be exaggerating a danger and so causing needless worry or panic.
How is the scientific method designed to address the problem of confirmation bias?
...
When did the Little Ice Age occur and what is the likely cause of the Little Ice Age?
400 years ago and lasts for 300 years, till the middle of the 19th century. The sun's spots are responsible for the Little Ice Age. Past sun spots records and earth's temperature records are compared, the fewer the sunspots during the 1600's, the colder the earth temperature was.
When did "Snowball Earth" occur and what modern evidence is shown in the video that leads scientists to conclude the Earth was a snowball?
650 million years ago/death valley/rocks exposed give best picture of earth's climate about 600 million years ago/glacial drop stones-rocks that don't belong in terrain/bolder→needed a glacier to hold it→carried on a glacier sheet→glacier picks up rock in one part of the world, travels, melts and drops it in another
To which of the following human activities do the authors compare the bee decision making process?
A town hall meeting
Why do aerosols exhibit a net negative radiative forcing?
Aerosol particles influence radiative forcing through reflection and absorption of solar and infrared radiation in the atmosphere. Some aerosols cause a positive forcing while other cause a negative forcing. They cause negative forcing indirectly through the changes they cause in cloud properties.
Why will there almost always be some disagreement on any scientific question?
Because science is surprisingly never certain and every single scientific statement carries with it some sort of estimate of how big the uncertainty is because it is simply part of science to admit explicitly that neither you nor your instruments are perfect. There will always be some disagreement on any scientific question.
Why does being old help your H-index score?
Because they have more experience and a longer career compared to younger scientists.
What is belief polarization and how does it influence the way we think about climate change?
Belief polarization is giving more credibility to evidence that fits your ideas and less to evidence that contradicts them. It influences the way we think about climate change because a lot of times we seek for information that will back up our already established opinion of climate change rather than to challenge it.
Craven's credibility spectrum and why he puts them there: blogs?
Blogs have the least credibility and lie at the bottom of the spectrum because they usually are made by individual lay people. They are quite susceptible to bias and don't have expertise in climate science or economics.
Define albedo and explain how the ice-albedo feedback loop led to "Snowball Earth".
Earth is covered in land/open ocean/ice which all reflect sunlight differently // The amount of sunlight that is reflected off of Earth's surface/dark ocean has low albedo and absorbs the sun's energy/while snow bounces sunlight off of surface and keeps earth cool/Ice-albedo loop led to Snowball Earth because the sunlight reflected off of the snow which didn't let any of the heat absorb into the earth so it just remained cold.
Craven's credibility spectrum and why he puts them there: economists?
Economists are below scientists on the credibility spectrum because scientists are specifically trained in how to guard against their own assumptions, economists aren't. So the profession of economist can be more susceptible to bias than the profession of scientist.
Coal is primarily derived from trees and plants. From what organisms is oil derived?
Formed 300 million years ago. Tiny diatoms are the source of oil/diatoms are sea creatures the size of a pin head. They do one thing just like plants; they can convert sunlight directly into stored energy.
What are fossil fuels and where do they come from?
Fossil fuels are fuels formed by natural processes. This includes oil, coal, and natural gas. They come from photosynthetic organisms that grew hundreds of millions of years ago that were buried before the carbon in them could be released back into the atmosphere by respiration. Fossil fuels represent things that were around very long ago.
Why are fossil fuels associated with both global warming and acid rain?
Fossil fuels have released high levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Burning fossil fuels and vegetation also release the particle aerosols, which absorb radiation from the sun.
At the end of the chapter, Craven quotes Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert and gives four reasons why climate change does not seem very threatening to humans. Explain these four reasons.
Gilbert proposed we are conditioned to respond most strongly to threats that are 1. Intentional and personal, like a dictator or evil empire. If it were so, the war on warming would be a top priority. 2. Violate our moral sensibilities by making us angry or disgraced so we don't feel compelled to rail against it as we do against other momentous threats to our species. If it were caused by gay marriage or eating kittens there would be protestors in a heartbeat. 3. Since the threats aren't clear and poses present danger we tend to put them in the back of our minds. 4. Since they don't involve quick changes rather than gradual changes. Global warming is impersonal, morally neutral, in the future and gradual and we're not wired to watch out for stuff like that.
Craven's credibility spectrum and why he puts them there: government reports?
Government reports are just underneath professional societies on the credibility spectrum. The leaders of governments who request major reports are masters of bias, but the bureaucrats and scientists who produce the reports tend to not be. Bias factor in reports are relatively low.
Do greenhouse gases absorb solar radiation or terrestrial radiation?
Greenhouse gases absorb solar radiation.
Why does an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations lead to an increase in average global temperature?
Greenhouse gases cause an increase in global temperature due to the altering incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation that are part of Earth's energy balance. Changing the atmospheric abundance of these gases can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system.
What are greenhouse gases and how are the amounts of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere changing?
Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the Earth's atmosphere and capture sunlight. They consist mostly of carbon dioxide, ozone and methane caused by the greenhouse effect. Because of human activity and the industrial revolution polluting fossil fuels, the gases aren't able to escape the world's atmosphere so those gases just add to the greenhouse gases.
What does our understanding of global peak oil suggest about the future of gasoline prices?
It suggests that gasoline prices are going to progressively grow more expensive because oil is becoming more and more scarce.
Who is Greg Craven and why did he write this book? What is the purpose of the book?
Greg Craven is a high school science teacher and he wrote this book to help people understand and think about climate change. Not to necessarily pick a side, but to make decisions that will be effective. The purpose of the book is to give us a set of thinking tools so we can reach our own conclusions, rather than becoming convinced that his or any other author's conclusion is the right one.
The video shows a scientist collecting core samples of coral in the Florida Keys. What conclusion was drawn from the coral data?
He uses corals to reveal past temperatures. They measure the width of the coral's photo strips that show on the coral every century. The growth layers build up every hundreds of years. The coral layers grow faster when the ocean is warmer and the photo strips of the coral show that within the 20th century, there has been a higher growth rate now than in 18th century. They conclude if the ocean was to rise a few more degrees, the frozen methane could erupt from the ocean floor.
Who was M. King Hubbert?
He was a geolologist for Shell Oil in 1956. He predicted that a peak of US oil production would occur in the late 1960s. He was the first to declare that oil discovery, and that production would follow a bell shaped curve over his life.
The film discusses climate conditions 11,500 years ago. What type of core data is discussed in this portion of the video and where was this core data collected?
Ice cores, they contain a lot of data about the earth's past climate conditions, by showing volcanic ash, sand, and tiny bubbles of ancient atmospheres that stretch back 110,000 years. The data was gathered two miles down in Greenland ice. The thickness of snow sheet layers suddenly shrink, which show a sudden climate change.
Craven's credibility spectrum and why he puts them there: individual scientists?
Individual Scientists are beneath think tanks because they are both susceptible to bias but they have more expertise than the lay individuals, that is, if they're speaking about their fields.
What is the IPCC and what does it do?
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an international organization created to evaluate and synthesize climate change science. The panel summarizes the current scientific literature on climate change into reports that reflect the scientific consensus.
Describe the greenhouse effect.
Is a process by which thermal radiation from the earth's surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases and is re-radiated in all directions. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, ozone and methane cause the greenhouse effect.
Why does carbon dioxide have a positive radiative forcing?
It has a positive affect because each gas absorbs outgoing infrared radiation in the atmosphere. CO2 increases have caused the largest forcing over this period.
Why doesn't Craven include the scientific literature in his credibility spectrum?
It's because if you don't have scientific training, tracing the arguments through the forest of peer-reviewed literature trying to figure out the truth. There are so many papers available and it is so easy to misinterpret the results, you're bound to find something that confirms your views.
Who is Milankovitch and how does he (and James Croll) explain variations in the Earth's average temperature?
James Croll's theory suggests that the variation of temperature is caused by the gravitational pull of the sun, moon, and planets that affect the tilt of the Earth's axis, which changes the shape of the world's orbit around the sun. The alterations from oval to circle motion every thousand of years changes the distance to the sun, therefore affecting the temperature of the earth's surface. Milankovitch, was a Serbian engineer who supported and expanded on Croll's theory 50 years later. He added a time scale, calculating that the earth orbits the sun every 100,000 years, which explains why the earth oscillates between hot and cold periods.
Why are climatologists more likely to be a credible resource for climate change related information than meteorologists?
Meteorologists study short-term and local-scale weather while climatologists study long-term and large-scale weather patterns so they tend to have more expertise on the subject of climate change.
Describe the Overton Window.
Migration from mere ideas to the law of the land can be described by this model. It's a theory of change developed by the Mackinac Center's late vice president, Joseph Overton. After he died in 2003, Joseph Lehman built a presentation around his idea. Least Government Intervention, Most Freedom 1. no government schools 2. parents pay for only the education they choose 3. private and home schools monitored, not regulated 4. tuition tax credits 5. tuition vouchers 6. private and home schooling moderately regulated 7. charter schools 8. public school choice 9. state-mandated curricula 10. private and home schooling highly regulated; parents pay twice 11. home schooling illegal 12. private schooling illegal 13. compulsory indoctrination in government schools Most Government Intervention, Least Freedom
What is Mount Tambora and what impact did it have on global temperatures? What was unique about the summer of 1816?
Mount Tambora is a volcano on the island of Sumbawa, Indonesia that erupted, millions of tons of dust and ash float into the sky, eclipsing the sun, causing temperatures to spiral downwards causing global cooling. Released a huge amount of sulfur dioxide into atmosphere. There was no summer in 1816 because there was a killing frost every month in the summer, which killed all crops.
What is Murphy's Law?
Murphy's Law of Research is the idea that enough research will reveal evidence to confirm any hypothesis. In the USA Today article, Doyle Rice provides many resources that backup the hypothesis that the ice age theory in the 70s was indeed incorrect. There are many resources provided to help the case and persuade us to believe that it is correct.
Which type of fossil fuel is environmentally "cleaner"? Explain.
Natural Gas because it is the cleanest, most efficient, cost effective, and abundant fossil fuel and it produces less pollution and fewer greenhouse gases than other fossil fuels. Natural gas does not contain very much sulfur or mercury. You can get more energy from each molecule of natural gas than any of the other fossil fuels.
What is methane and how is it related to natural gas?
Natural gas is lighter than air and is mostly made up of methane gas. Methane is a simple chemical compound that is made up of carbon and hydrogen atoms.
What criticisms of the IPCC are specifically identified in the carbonbrief.org article?
One criticism is that the evidence for global warming of between .5-.9 degrees Celsius since the end of the 19th century is "unequivocal" with the most likely value for temperature rise in this period being .75 degrees Celsius. The criticism is against global warming being caused by human activity.
What is peak oil and when did peak oil occur in the United States?
Peak oil is a point in time (2011), when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which production will gradually decline.
What colors did the researchers paint on the bees?
Pink and blue
The video discusses how plant fossil research provides insight into the climate conditions ~250 million years ago. How are plant fossils used to determine climate conditions?
Plants have pores, so when carbon dioxide is high, the plants have fewer pores. When carbon dioxide is low, the pores have to expand in number so that the plant can get enough CO2 . Fossil breathing pores 250 million years ago suggest that CO2 was rising and rose after the extinction.
How could shifting the Overton Window be dangerous?
Policy change, which itself follows social change. When social and political forces bring about change, the window of political possibility shifts up or down the spectrum and can also expand to include more policy options or shrink to include fewer.
What is the relationship between politicians and the Overton Window?
Politicians typically don't determine what is politically acceptable; more often they react to it and validate it. Politicians will rarely support whatever policy they choose whenever they choose; rather, they will do what they feel they can do without risking electoral defeat, given the current political environment shaped by ideas, social movements and societal sensibilities.
Fossil fuel power plants are related to acid rain AND climate change. These are two SEPARATE problems. How is coal related to acid rain? How is coal related to climate change?
Power plants that burn coal emit large amounts of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere and then are absorbed by raindrops. They react with the water to form carbonic acid. When coal is burned, it releases carbon dioxide, which absorbs right into the atmosphere.
Explain where each of the following groups is placed in Craven's credibility spectrum and why he puts them there: professional societies?
Professional societies are at the top of the credibility spectrum because they deem the most credible because bias and political leanings are going to be as small and as expected in any human endeavor. They are also made up of people who know more about the field than anyone else.
What is the purpose of a refinery?
Refineries are large tanks that store oil until it is sent to various places to be used. Crude oil is also split into carious tupes of products by heating the thick black oil.
What evidence led scientists to conclude that the Arctic was much warmer 55 million years ago than it is today?
Scientists drill deep into the sediment in the ocean floor. Through radioactive dating of the sediment, the scientists find the fossilized remains of a tiny fern in the core sediment, which is a plant that can only thrive in warm water. Which implies that the Arctic was once a warm tropical ocean.
How do scientists differ from non-scientists in their use of the term "consensus"?
Scientists use the term consensus referring to scientific peer review articles that back up or relate to a subject they believe to be true. A paper that is peer reviewed and published in a well-known journal would be considered more trustworthy than an opinion or non-peer reviewed paper.
Which of these activities were the researchers observing in the bees?
Selection of hive location
The article discussion research on bees. Which of the following is the property of bees the researchers are studying?
Swarm intelligence
What is the difference between "good" ozone and "bad" ozone in terms of effect and location?
The "good" ozone layer, or stratosphere, protects the earth from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays. The "bad" layer is the troposphere, or ground level zone and is an air pollutant that damages human health, vegetation, and other materials.
What is the Dunning-Kruger effect and how does it influence the way we think about climate change?
The Dunning-Kruger effect is the tendency for people to be less confident of their views as they gain more skill and knowledge. The ones with the least knowledge tend to be the most confident. It influences the way we think about climate change because usually when people have heard and read a lot of information from both sides, they sit in the middle. If someone only reads the alarmists' research, they are going to spout off everything they know from that one source with confidence.
How many scientists are involved in the IPCC process?
The IPCC process involves thousands of scientists who for the most part are volunteers.
Craven's credibility spectrum and why he puts them there: think tanks?
Think Tanks are somewhere in the middle. They've got an agenda, but they've also got better resources than just a single person so they can be more thorough, thus increasing the expertise factor. However, many of them were formed specifically to advance a particular point of view, so there is a bit of bias.
How do bees avoid poor hive locations?
The Scouts go out and look for a new hive location. When they return, the scouts will head-butt each other in order to vote and decide which location would be better.
What is "the 40 year cycle" and what does it suggest about global peak oil?
The amount of oil discovered in the US has dropped since the late 1930s and 40 years later, US oil production had peaked and has fallen. The World discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s, and has since declined since then. If the "40 year cycle" seen in the US is true, that means that the oil peak for the World should be right about now.
When was the Carboniferous Period and why is that Period relevant to fossil fuels?
The carboniferous period occurred around 360 to 286 million years ago. The earth was covered with leafy plants and swamps during that time. As the trees and plants died, they sank to the bottom of the swamps of the oceans, which formed spongy material called peat. Over hundreds of years, the peat was covered by sand, clay, and other minerals, which then turned into sedimentary rock. More and more rock piled on top of more rock, which progressively added more weight on the peat. The peat was increasingly squeeze until the water came out of it and it eventually, over millions of years, created coal, oil, and natural gas.
How much does the natural greenhouse effect change the average surface temperature of the Earth?
The earth naturally produces greenhouse gases so it's surface is already pretty warm due to the radiation of the sun as well as re-radiation of gases in the earth's atmosphere.
What is the role of the editor in the peer-review process?
The editor makes a final publication decision.
How much does the enhanced greenhouse effect change the average surface temperature of the Earth?
The enhanced greenhouse effect causes the earth's surface to be warmer because the gases that are being polluted just add to the greenhouse gases that are already existent.
What is the role of each of the following components in a thermal power plant: the fuel, the boiler, the turbine, the generator, the magnet?
The fuel: Coal, Oil, or Natural gases The boiler: burn a fuel to make heat. Water is brought to a boil inside the boiler, and the steam is then piped to the turbine through thick pipes. The water boils into steam. The turbine: The steam from the boiler is then fed under pressure to the turbine. It has a steam inlet and outlet. The steam causes the turbine to spin. The turbine is attached by a shaft to the turbogenerator. When the turbine turns, the shaft and rotor is turned. As the shaft inside the generator turns, an electric current is produced in the wire. The generator: It's a device that converts the mechanical energy from the turbine into electrical energy. The generator has a long, coiled wire on its shaft surrounded by a giant magnet. The magnet: produces a magnetic field from the generator.
What is the role of the expert or referee in the peer-review process?
The group of experts or referees, which are considered your peers because they are studying the same things as you, and are considered experts because they've already contributed new knowledge themselves.
Why did the bees head-butt each other?
To stop the other bees from dancing
What is the purpose of an H-index and how is it calculated?
The h-index is a number invented by physicist Jorge Hirsch in 2005 to measure research impact. A scientist's h-index is the highest number of papers they have published which have each amassed at least that number of citations: Corey, with an h of 139, has published 139 papers which have each received at least 139 citations, for example. By combining quantity and quality, Hirsch argued, the h-index avoids other measures' potential bias; counting total published papers can reward the hard-working but mediocre, while a highly-cited scientist may have inflated their reputation by writing review articles or by sneaking in as a co-author on many papers.
What is the Industrial Revolution and how is it related to fossil fuels?
The industrial revolution was started in the 1800's. It was special purpose machinery made to create things in mass production. Fossil fuel is used as energy to keep the machinery working
Define radiative forcing?
The influence of a factor that can cause climate change, such as greenhouse gas, is often evaluated in terms of its radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is a measure of how the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is influenced when factors that affect climate are altered.
What is the purpose of the peer-review process?
The peer review process is an integral part of how new knowledge is created and shared.
What is the purpose of generating a credibility spectrum?
The purpose of generating a credibility spectrum is to find get information from valid sources. It not necessarily about what is being said, but by who is saying it that makes it a more credible statement.
If greenhouse gases absorbed solar radiation, what would happen to the surface temperature of the Earth as the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increased?
The surface temperature would still increase.
Define confirmation bias.
The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories
Craven discusses his "decision grid". Describe the assumptions and outcome of each of the boxes in the grid.
The top left box shows what would happen if we took action and global warming turned out not to be real after all, which represents a mistake on our part. Consequences would be wasted money, stricter land-use laws, increased taxation, bloated government. Economic costs. The top right box shows what would happen if we didn't take action and it turned out we didn't need to. We made the right decision so everyone celebrates. Status quo. The bottom left box shows the future of which we took action-and it was a good thing because the doomsdayers were right. Global warming is in fact real, but we were prepared so it was worth it. We still have economic costs but the system didn't collapse so people saw the expenditures as worthwhile. Economic costs but saved our bacon. The bottom right shows that the doomsdayers were right but we didn't take significant action in time. Sea levels rise 20 feet, droughts, storms, floods, epidemics. Overall, it's better to take the risk to be prepared than to not be prepared for a global catastrophe. Hamster chow
In what ways is this process similar and/or dissimilar to a democracy?
The ways they are dissimilar is that the bees work together to make a decision and complete their goal, but in a democracy, people have competing interests. The people aren't really involved in the decision making like the bees. We have representatives that make the decisions for us. Unlike the bees, who make the decision to relocate their hive as a colony.
Sometimes people claim that the windmill power generators east of Idaho Falls are "never turning". How might this be an example of That Van Is Always on the Corner syndrome?
The windmills could be an example because it depends on whether you're paying attention only when they're not moving. You may drive past Idaho Falls all the time, but you never "count the misses" when they are turning. You only keep track of when they are sitting still so you assume they "never turn."
What is currently happening to the permafrost in the Arctic and how is this affecting the buildings and roads of Alaska?
There's an alarming thawing of the permafrost causing sinkholes. Buildings and roads are collapsing into the ground because of the melting permafrost.
What are the limitations of the scientific method?
These limitations are based on the fact that a hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable and that experiments and observations be repeatable. This places certain topics beyond the reach of the scientific method. Science cannot prove or refute the existence of God
How do natural processes like volcanic and solar activity compare to the human impact on total radiative forcing?
They are both very small compared to the differences in radiative forcing estimated to have resulted from human activities.
Why do scientists tend to state their conclusions more conservatively than non-scientists?
They state their conclusions more conservatively because their statements aren't exactly certain. They can make statements with high confidence levels, but they can't be 100% sure on anything because science can't solidly prove anything. There will always be uncertainty.
How could someone who has published 40 research papers have an h-index score of zero?
They would have a score of zero because that would mean none of them have received any citations.
What are warmers and skeptics?
Warmers and Skeptics: are people who share an opposition to pursuing significant cuts in carbon emissions, they both advocate column B as the better choice. If someone opposes the statement, "We should take significant action to cut carbon dioxide emissions to reduce the amount of global warming," then he or she is a skeptic. If they agree, they are a warmer.
What is the most abundant and important greenhouse gas and how much do humans directly influence its atmospheric concentration?
Water vapor, and human activities only have a small direct influence on the amount of atmospheric water vapor.
