EQ3: What spheres of influence are contested by superpowers and what are the implications of this?

China's actions in the South and East Seas have implications for the US And other counties in the region

1, Arguably, island building is a direct attack on the UN Law of the Sea as construction building is happening in areas that are disputed; China is taking de facto control of places claimed by other countries. 2. China is challenging US Naval and air hegemony in the area and has begun to question the right of US ships and aircrafts to sail and fly in the disputed areas.

Development opportunity

1. China has invested heavily in roads, railway and ports to export raw materials- infrastructure that can be used by Afrcan themselves 2. Vital jobs are created, especially by large industrial, transport and energy projects, which also modernise the economy 3. Chinese factories and mines bring modern working practices and technology to Africa. 4. Chinese finance has funded 17 major HEP projects since 2010, adding 6780 MW of electricity to the continent in 2013. 5. Investment deals are often accompanied by aid, so the benefits of Chinese money are more widely spread.

There are concerns about environmental impact of Chinese investment and resource exploitation: X2

1. Chinese imports of tropical timber have been linked to widespread illegal deforestation in Mozambique 2. Oil spills linked to Chinese-funded oil wells have been reported in Chad, Sudan and Angola.

Case Study on China Railway in Ethiopia and Kenya

1. Chinese investment in a Kenyan railway network. 2. 2019 finished building the link from Ethiopia to Djibouti. The railway starts in the capital and although it is landlocked it has access to the coast. 3. KENYA JUST OPENED A $4 BILLION CHINESE-BUILT RAILWAY, ITS LARGEST INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT IN 50 YEARS

On the other hand IP has been criticised

1. IP requires users of a product to pay royalties to the inventor which is a cost to developing countries. 2. IP holders do not have a duty to make a new invention available; in theory, at least, they could prevent a new medicine being made. 3. The system can create a monopoly where a patent holder can charge what they like for a new product, denying it to some people on the basis of the price.

Neo-colonial challenge

1. Infrastructure investments ensure that China can export raw materials as cheept and efficiently as possible 2. Skilled and technical jobs are often filled by Chinese migrant workers, estimated to number 200,000 in 2014 3. Cheap Chinese imports (clothes, shoes) have undercut local producers and forced them out of business 4. Much of FDI brings only temporary construction jobs; there are few jobs in mechanised mines and oil fields. 5.Aid from China is tied to FDI: allow investment and CHina provides some aid.

Some resources are contested: X3

1. Land border between two countries is in dispute 2. The ownership of a landmass is in dispute such as Argentina's claim to the UK governed falkland islands. 3. The extent of a nation's offshore exclusive economic zone is in dispute or claimed by another nation.

Disregard for international IP treaties and counterfeiting can lead to sour relations between countries, especially the US and China

1. TNC may be reluctant to invest in China, knowing that their profits are likely to be reduced by counterfeiting. 2. Lack of action by the Chinese authorities on IP issues may suggest its government is less likely to cooperate on other issues of international law. 3. The possibility of trade agreements being made is limited if one side believes the other will not 'play by the rules'

Disputes often flare up between X4

1. The balance of power changes, 2. Disputed territories are visited by high-level officials 3. Military 'sabre rattling' occurs 4. New resources are discovered or suspected

Existing superpowers such as the US and the EU, have often been accused of having unfair relationships with developing countries. This means relationships based on:

1. neo-colonialism : 2. Unfair terms of trade: 3. The brain drain of skilled workers from developing countries to boost developed-world economies. 4. Local wealthy elites

Counterfeit Goods 1. The importance of intellectual property rights has grown significantly since

1. the 1990s, with the globalisation of technology as well as rapid breakthroughs in new technologies.

Example of Last grab of the colonial empire

1. the empire was expanding up until 1955 when the UK put up a flag in Rock Hall and bolted a plaque onto it in order to claim it as the UK 2. Ireland and Denmark are claiming that the UK should not adopt it as part of Scotland and they are claiming it as it is closer to their land rather than scotland, the usual disputes over land.

The USA is arguably in a stronger position that the EU for two reasons:

1.Although consisting of 50 states, which have their own rights and laws, the differences between states are minor and they are not sovereign, unlike the 28 countries that make up the EU. the former are much more likely to agree on policy. 2. The USA is not ageing as fast as the EU. It has a fertility rate of 1.9 vs 1.6 for the EU, so its population will be more youthful for longer.

China's involvement in Africa has created greater independence

1.China relies on African Oil- from Nigeria and Sudan as well as minerals such as Zambian copper and even sugar and biofuels grown in Africa to fuel its growing economy. 2. Africa increasingly imports Chinese manufactured goods and relies on Chinese investment in infrastructure like roads, rails and ports

Military:

A new arms race is a possible outcome of this bipolar scenario. As China expands its global reach with naval and air power, the USA and its allies may need to react by diverting resources away from economic and social programmes and into guns and ships.

What sort of relationship does China and African developing countries have?

African trade between 200 and 2009 significantly strengthened trade relationship with China. A disproportionate increase. +708%. It is increasing trade and benefiting China and a political elite in some of these countries.

Effects of Covid-19 on the UK economy

After experiencing a significant shock since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the economy is in a technical recession, falling by 20.4% during Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020, compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020, which fell by 2.2%. This was the largest decline since quarterly records began.

How much of world trade is counterfeit goods?

An estimated 5-10% of world trade is in counterfeit goods. China is accused of being a leading violator of intellectual property rights, leading to heightened tensions.

China's African Adventure - Annual FDI from China

Annual FDI from China has increased to about US$3 billion by 2015 and the total stock of FDI stood at about US$35 billion.

Stability

Arguably the bipolar structure has always been inherently unstable as broadly equal powerful countries make complex and competing alliances with no country acting as the global police. We could see the beginning of a 'new Cold War' which would lead to a period of tense stability between the USA and China.

Developing worlds, such as those between China and African countries, can bring both opportunities and challenges. However

As Asian countries such as India and China grow in economic importance, this can increase the geopolitical influence of the region, but also lead to tensions within the region

Why warfare has/ has not happened.

As such conflict has not happened. However, conflict between China and the USA, or with the other South China Sea states, is by no means inevitable. All of these states benefit from and rely on trade passing through the South China Sea.

New Cold War (bipolar)

China rises to become equal in power to the USA, and many nations align themselves with one or other ideology, creating a bipolar world similar to the 1945-90 Covid War period.

Economic challenges to EU

Debt in the Eurozone amounted to $9.7 trillion in 2016 in the UK in both cases about 90% of annual GDP; debt is a drag on economic growth EU unemployment was close to 10% in 2016, representing a cost to taxpayers and underused economic capacity.

Asian Century (unipolar)

Economic, social and political problems reduce the power of the EU and the USA; economic and political power shifts to the emerging powers in Asia, led by China.

Regional mosaic (multipolar)

Emerging powers continue to grow while the EU and US decline in relative terms, creating a multi-polar world of broadly equal powers with regional but not global influence.

Resource challenges to EU

Energy security is a key EU issue, as it relies on imported oil and gas, some of which comes from Russia.

Chinese companies are well known for drinking IP by producing counterfeit products.

Fake apple products are also common. 22 fake Apple stores were found in China in 2011.

An explanation of why the situation is tense

For centuries, the Arctic has had special significance for Russia: as a new frontier for explorers, a source of riches, inc: furs, oil, gold, and a security buffer for a nation that frequently feared encirclement.

An explanation of why the situation is tense and what super conflict is taking place?

Globally important sea lines of communication (SLOCs) pass through the South China Sea, carrying huge volumes of trade. These same SLOCs allow the US Navy to move between the Western Pacfici and Indian Oceans. The South China sea is therefore a direct economic and strategic interest to the USA. China's increasing assertiveness has led the USA to increase its naval presence in the South China Sea-part of a so-called 'pivot to Asia'. But US global interests mean that its navy is deployed across the world's oceans and therefore thinly spread.

Social challenges to USA

Health spending swallows 17% of the USA's annual GDP and is a huge cost to families and government 74% of adult Americans are overweight (30% are obese), adding signatnly to healthcare costs.

The UK debt under Covid has increased by:

In August Britain's national debt has hit £2tn for the first time as the cost of fighting the Covid-19 pandemic pushed public debts above the size of the UK economy

Implications for the surrounding area (environment) and the people in the conflict zone

In the South China Sea, China's recent strategy in the area has been to occupy deserted islands and to artificially build larger or even new islands, especially in the Spratly islands. China's actions have been referred to as the 'Great Wall of Sand'. However, the policy is a long standing one.

Unemployment:

Increased competition, with more efficient and creative manufactures in emerging or developing countries, has led to a decline and readjustment of major Western TNCs With European TNCs increasingly owned by larger conglomerates from emerging countries, such as Tata, secondary-sector workers in Europe depend on decisions made abroad. This makes the workforce vulnerable to changing commodity prices and consumer spending patterns in large Asian markets with populations. The 2008 recession caused the unemployment rate to rise from 5 to 10%, and although this recovered in many developed countries, some groups remain disadvantaged such as factory workers.

The future

It is, of course, impossible to say what the world will be like in 2050. Uncertainties over future population size, GDP growth and even the impact of future wars and global warming mean that 'best guesses' are the best that can be done.

Values of the area - why this is an important and crucial issue.

Located between the mainland coast of Asia and the island groups of the Philippines, Borneo and Indonesia, the South China Sea is vital to the flow of global marine trade because it is the link between the Indian and Pacific Ocean. Around 90% of trade goods in the world are carried by sea. Ships passing through the South China Sea are estimated to carry over US$5 trillion in trade per year. This includes around 25% of the oil carried by sea (over 15 million barrels per day) and more than 50% of the global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) . Many of the states in this region are poor in natural resources but have dynamic industrialised economies that are dependent on importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods by sea.

Economic challenges to USA

National debt in the USA in 2016 was US$19 trillion, but the US dollar's status as the global currency of choice makes it less vulnerable to economic shocks. The USA has many large, innovative global TNCs, for example Apple, Google, Facebook and Cisco.

What has increased?

National debt in these countries has increased too, and it is well publicised that China owns a significant proportion of the USA's debt, arguably compromising US hegemony. Unemployment has been a huge challenge, especially following the 2008 global financial crisis, which led to unemployment rates peaking at around 10% in the USA and around 11% in the EU.

What can tensions arise over?

Over the acquisition and exploitation of physical resources (e.g. Arctic oil and gas), as well as intellectual property rights and control over territory

Political challenges to USA

Race relations in parts of the USA are strained and, at a national level, there is often political deadlock between Democrats and Republicans. However, the US values are fairly universal and these are projected to a global audience

Russia and exploring the Arctic

Russia The government - President Vladimir Putin (strongly backing the NSR) Arctic Asia Europe Local residents in areas such as Tiksi

Two geographical locations are of particular concern

Russia's western border and South and East China Seas.

The World's Changing Centre of gravity

Some megacities in emerging countries, such as Shanghai and Beijing, will grow to overtake developed world cities such as LA and Paris. China and south Asia will account particularly in India for almost 90% of Asia's urban population growth and this will create new markets for TNCs China sees itself as a regional superpower. This creates tensions, especially where there are concentrations of military forces, evidenced in disputes over the South China Sea as well escalating hostility towards Taiwan and North Korea.

3. Military 'sabre rattling' occurs

Such as flying jets or sailing naval vessels close to a disputed territory: this frequently occurs in the South and East China Seas by both China and the USA.

What has led to an increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape.

Tensions between superpowers are nothing unusual, though some would argue the recent shifts in patterns of power and the emergence of multiple potential superpowers

Resources:

The 'Asian Century' scenario means that in 2030 we are likely to see strong economic and population growth in Asia in particular in China. However, in the West there will be a continued demand for resources. In addition, an expanding Chinese middle class is likely to lead to a 35% increase in demand for food, a 40% increase in demand for water and a 50% increase in demand for energy.

Economics:

The Asian century scenario would cause a fundamental shift in the world's economy; global economic well-being would depend on the health of NICs in Asia rather than the economies of Europe and North America.

The United States and the Covid Effects

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the biggest blow to the US economy since the Great Depression. GDP fell at a 32.9% annualized rate, the deepest decline since records began back in 1947.

Economic Restructuring:

The EU and the USA are being forced to shift their economies away from the secondary sector towards the tertiary and quaternary sectors. A UK government report on the labour market in 2014 concluded that the country was ranked 19th out of 30 OECD countries for low skills 24th for intermediate and 11th for high skills. Concluding that the country was falling behind in developing a skilled workforce, with other countries investing in skills more effectively. The global shift in manufacturing creates challenges for disadvantaged communities in developed countries with lower skill levels. Some suggest that the decline of UK trade unions has reduced the vice of many groups and communities, making it more difficult for those affected to participate in making positive changes.

Demographic challenges to EU

The EU is ageing fast; by 2025 20% of EU citizens will be over 65. The EU's workforce will drop by 14% by 2030, which will place an increasing burden on those in work to fund pensions, healthcare and care homes.

Political challenges to EU

The EUs 28 nations do not sing with one voice despite Eurovision Tensions between countries wanting deeper union (france, Germany) and those wanting less (UK) have grown (culminating in the UK's recent vote to leave)

South China Sea -

The South China sea is one of the most important yet contested ocean spaces in the world. There are disputes over sovereignty of its many small islands, and competing claims to its waters. These conflicts complicate the management of the South China Sea's valuable marine environment and resources.

The current UK unemployment rate is:

The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 4.8%, 0.9 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous quarter

Which superpowers are involved and other key players.

The USA and China Despite their insignificance the issue also involves Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam. The situation is complicated by the large number of small islands in the sea, to which neighbouring nations have laid claim.

Demographic challenges to USA

The USA is ageing less fast than the EU and social costs (pensions, healthcare) tend to be borne by individuals rather than the government. The total population will keep growing from 324 million in 2016 to 415 million in 2060.

Resource challenges to USA

The USA is increasingly energy secure as a result of oil and gas fracking Water insecurity is an increasing problem in the southwest.

Social Costs:

The consequences of unemployment and disadvantaged communities have been the deterioration of employment networks and decaying living environment, with fewer maintained public spaces with parks and recreational areas. This reduces the gross motor development of children and limits the development of the social skills that they need to perform well in services and the knowledge economy.

Debt:

The global recession created high public debt in rich countries. In the UK a significant budget deficit is predicted to increase the national debt by US$1 billion a week by 2018; in 2015-16 the UK national debt was expected to be over £1.5 trillion in total. In some countries debt increases the need to raise taxes to pay debt interest, and this can slow an economy even further. The alternative is to introduce austerity measures, spending less and lowering costs such as wages, but this can also slow economic growth. So countries are faced with a difficult balancing act. Other countries believe that they are economically strong enough to allow economic processes to continue, so that the debt burden gradually decreases over time.

Neo-Colonial:

The indirect actions by which developed countries exercise a degree of control over the development of their former colonies. This can be achieved through varied means including conditions attached to aid and loans, cultural influence and military or economic support (either overt or covert) in particular.

Important link to the South China Sea:

The new Maritime Silk road inquisitive that China is pushing hard. Which includes the route they want to secure through the south China sea then takes them through East China. All part of a global plan to source resources. The infrastructure coming out of the two railways in Easyern Africa are part of their larger infrastructural development plan and sourcing of resources.

Chinese effect of Covid:

The world's second biggest economy saw a sharp decline in the first three months of the year during coronavirus lockdowns. However, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) returned to growth during April to June. China's economy grew 3.2% in the second quarter following a record slump.The bounce-back follows a steep 6.8% slump in the first quarter of the year, which was the biggest contraction since quarterly GDP records began.

Implications for the surrounding area (environment) and the people in the conflict zone

Tiki a decaying town in the Russian Arctic. more than 4,000km from Moscow on the coast of the Laptev Sea, 4,550 people inhabit a wasteland whipped by blizzards and wrapped in polar night for half of the year. Surrounded by thousands of kilometres of permafrost, the town has no outside land connection.Implications for the surrounding area (environment) and the people in the conflict zone

What does it involve?

To help the UK bolster their global influence Scared of losing their global influence Attempting to show other global powers, that we have weakened ourselves by leaving the EU Going to be a leading power in IA The largest military investment in 30 years is set to be announced by the prime minister, an extra £4bn a year over the next four years. The money will fund space and cyber defence projects such as an artificial intelligence agency, and could create 40,000 new jobs, the government said. Boris Johnson said it would help the UK to "bolster our global influence". The Ministry of Defence's annual budget is around £40bn, so the £16.5bn over four years is about a 10% increase.

Both the EU and USA face the ongoing costs of economic restructuring.

Traditional manufacturing cities such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, Newcastle and Sheffield have lost jobs and required major investment in regeneration as well as the social costs of coping with rising unemployment.

Example of latest changes

UK military to get biggest spending boost in 30 years:

US hegemony (unipolar)

US dominance and economic and military alliances, continue in a unipolar world. China faces an economic crisis, similar to Japan's in the early 1990s and ceases to grow rapidly

Remittances

World Bank in April 2020 predicted sharpest decline of remittances in recent history Projected to fall by 20% this year. Very important part of the global economy and the developing economies.

Social challenges to EU

Youth unemployment in the EU was 22% in 2015, and over 45% in Greece and Spain. Long-term youth unemployment risks a 'lost generation' of youth people, as well as political disaffection.

Sphere of Influence:

a physical region over which a country believes it has economic, military, cultural or political rights. Spheres of influence extend beyond the border of the country and represent a region where the country believes it has the right to influence the policies of other countries.

2. Disputed territories are visited by high-level officials

as when the Russian President visited the Kuril Islands in 2010, which incensed Japan

What are superpowers fuelled by?

by resources. In the 21st century human resources are crucial. However, old fashioned resources are still important.

2. Unfair terms of trade:

cheap commodity exports for the developing world set against expensive manufacturing imports from developed countries.

The global system of intellectual property rights can be undermined by

counterfeiting, which strains trade relations and TNC investments.

An Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

is an area of the sea under the territorial ownership of a single country. This area is guaranteed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Back up key points with facts: A neo-colonial relationship

nfrastructure investments can enrue China can export raw materials as cheaply as possible Skills and technological jobs are filled by Chinese workers. Over 1 million Chinese nationals living in Africa. A million skilled Chinese people are doing the jobs. FDI only brings temporary jobs.

Tensions in the Middle East present an

ongoing challenge to superpowers and emerging powers due to complex geopolitical relations, alongside the key role they play in global energy supply

Colonial

refers to the direct control exerted over territories conquered mainly by the European powers in the period 1600-1900. They were ruled, almost no power or influence being given to the original population of the colonies.

Where has there been a shift from?

shift away from the production of goods, leading to the USA having a significant trade deficit

4. New resources are discovered or suspected

such as the possibility of oil in water off the Falkland Island, governed by the UK but claimed by Argentina.

1. The balance of power changes,

such as when Pakistan tested a nuclear weapon in 1998, putting it on par with India in terms of military capability

1. neo-colonialism :

superpowers pulling the economic and political strings of developing countries, despite not ruling them as directly the colonial/ imperial era

As the world's economic centre of gravity has shif

ted eastwards, traditional superpowers in the west have faced numerous economic problems such as debt, unemployment and economic restructuring. Due to the global shift of manufacturing taking advantage of cheap labour, tax breaks and relaxed health/safety and environmental regulations, primarily in SE Asia, areas of deindustrialisation and deprivation have developed in the west.

Political spheres of influence can be contested leading to tensions over

territory and physical resources (south and East China Seas) and in some cases resulting in open conflict (Western Russia/ Eastern Europe) with implications for people and physical environment.

What has led to rise of counterfeit goods?

the rise of emerging nations has provided a key market for counterfeit goods, one of the most prevalent ways to violate international property rights. Some commentators have argued that these countries have a weak ability to protect intellectual property rights, and little or no interest in doing so.

4. Local wealthy elites

who control imports and exports in developing countries, benefiting from neo-colonial relationship but no interest in changing it.