Fashion Forecasting Exam 1
Conducting market and consumer research
(Target Segmentation)
• Population growth rate and age profile • Population health, education and social mobility, • and attitudes to these • Population employment patterns, job market freedom and attitudes toward work
Some Socio-Cultural Examples:
Author William Higham defines trend initiators as "those things a consumer reacts to." Maslow's hierarchy of needs (physiological and safety through self-actualization) and personal and national needs such as the Great Depression of the 1930s are examples of what kind of trend initiator?
economic
The process forecasting professionals employ to gather useful external information is known as:
enviromental scanning
Designer Rick Owens' use of step dancers in his spring 2014 fashion show was an example of which of author Susan Kaiser's sources of instabilities in tensions among cultural categories?
ethnicity
A style that is popular in the present or a set of trends that has been accepted by a wide audience is known as a:
fashion
The process by which a trend will pass from group to group across social boundaries of age, income, and lifestyle is called:
flow
To predict future needs and desires of consumers,
forecasters have to consider both the direction of change and speed of change.
Which group of trendsetters were early adopters of such now mainstream products as Absolut vodka and common practices such as tattooing?
gay men
The success of model Andreja Pejic, who wore a wedding dress for Jean Paul Gaultier, then modeled women's wear at the London shows for designers such as Vivienne Westwood in 2011, was an example of which of author Susan Kaiser's sources of instabilities in tensions among cultural categories?
gender
fusion of skill sets for fashion forecasting
objective and scientific subjective and artistic "combination of math and magic"
The adoption of the miniskirt in the mid-1960s resulting in an increase in pantyhose sales is an example of what?
overlap
In which kind of fashion cycle does a trend terminate when all possibilities have been exhausted?
pendulum of fashion
In the 1983 version of Rogers' adoption process, the period when a consumer forms a favorable or an unfavorable attitude toward the innovation is known as:
persuasion
The difference in functionality between men's and women's dress can be summed up with the rise in popularity of what element of dress that increased along with the women's suffragette movement?
pockets
According to Jonah Berger, making things more observable makes them easier to imitate. This is a description of which principle of contagiousness?
public
What is the other term used to describe the phenomenon of conspicuous counter-consumption, or when people with the wealth and status to wear anything they wish choose to dress down?
reverse ostentation
What is the theoretical model that makes it easy to see how an innovation could spread between social groups and market segments, including during chaotic periods?
s-curve
Which of the following is not a stage in the evolution of a trend:
saturation
The theory suggesting that fashion changes systematically by covering one part of the body while uncovering another is known as:
shifting erogenous zones
What is the other term for the trickle-across theory of fashion change, also known as the mass market theory?
simultaneous adoption
According to Jonah Berger, knowing about cool things makes people seem sharp and in the know. This is a description of which principle of contagiousness?
social currency
Author William Higham defines trend initiators as "those things a consumer reacts to." Factors that relate to human society and its modes of organization such as conspicuous consumption are what kind of trend initiator?
sociocultural
Objective/Scientific (Quantitative):
sourcing, analysis and interpretation of data (ex. selling reports; consumer and market research; newest is "Big Data")
What is the alternate term that sociologist George Field proposed for what is now commonly known as the trickle-up theory of fashion change?
status float
Psychographics are
studies/data that classify groups through research • according to their attitudes, tastes, values, and fears • to identify trends.
Which of the following types of risk is not a consequence of perceived risk?
technological risk
According to author Faith Popcorn, about how long does a lifestyle trend take to work through the culture and reach all market levels?
ten years
fashion
that which characterizes or distinguishes the habits, manners, and dress of a period or group.
trends
the first signal of change in general direction or movement. • To identify a trend, forecasters recognize the similarities of information about style and details of a look and translate these details for potential consumers.
taste
the prevailing opinion of what is or is not appropriate for a particular occasion.
Global economics play a crucial role in:
the shaping of today's fashion industry.
According to Henrik Vejlgaard, women such as Babe Paley in the 1950s and 1960s and Jemima Kahn in the mid-1990s, are examples of which category of trendsetter?
the wealthy
According to Henrik Vejlgaard, punk singer Patti Smith in the 1970s, hip hop culture, and the Japanese Harajuku Girls are examples of which category of trendsetter?
the young
Which fashion theory describes how personal influence plays the key role in the transmission of fashion information that relies on two kinds of consumers—innovators and influentials—in popularizing new looks?
tickle-across
What is a forecaster estimating when measuring how soon the trend will "hit" and how long it will continue?
timing
• The goal with viral marketing is:
to create successful messages that will reach consumers with the highest social networking potential.
The term for a transitory increase or decrease over time is:
trend
What is the term for the forecaster's tool that identifies which trends are just emerging, continuing to build, or declining?
trend map
In the 1962 version of Rogers' adoption process, the adoption or rejection of an innovation occurs immediately after what stage?
trial
Which fashion theory is associated with the views of Thorsten Veblen and Georg Simmel?
trickle-down
Marketing practices that use existing social networks to spread the word through society.
viral marketing
Geographic studies/data focuses on:
where people live • including information about which country, state, city, • and the population in each area where the target customers are
In today's industry, different categories of fashion are all subjected to the forecaster's discerning scrutiny. ' • These include, among others:
women's wear, menswear, footwear, accessories, intimate apparel, children's wear, swimwear, interiors, knitwear, denim, active sports, and the youth market.
In long-term forecasting, future studies, or macro trends.
• A macro trend is a large-scale, continuous shift in consumer interest.
Seasonal Forecasting
• Even more specific: created by season—spring and fall • Often available to the clients on the website. • The process of creating a seasonal forecast starts 12 to 18 months prior to release date. • Within each season, most forecasters include four stories • Usually a portion with a youth-inspired tone and • a portion which is edgier and more contemporary. • Seasonal projection boards are assembled with • mood pictures • color stories • Fabrications • silhouette illustrations • Information is then prepared for publication, released in portions • beginning with concept, color, material, then look (silhouette) books
Short Term—Micro Forecasting
• Predicting trends up to approximately two years in advance • The "how" to applying the macro trend into a specific market. • Companies need approximately 18 to 24 months to integrate the trend into their cycle. • need to know when and how to prepare their customers to participate in the trend. • Themes or concepts are developed • color stories are created • textile and material selections are made • the look or silhouettes of fashion are identified. • Details or specific design features are highlighted.
A successful style may be similarly but cautiously repeated in some markets with a change of one or more of color, silhouette, fabrication, or details to create a new look.
• These elements are analyzed along with other projections to create new forecasts.
With this understanding of the dynamics of the market, the retailer and manufacturer develop a sales strategy so that successes are likely.
• This information can also be shared with the forecaster.
Difference between Trend Report and Fashion Forecast
• Trend Report • account describing in detail • something that already exists or has happened • often written based on observations • from runway collections, red carpet events, or street fashions • Fashion Forecast • combination of trend reports with present information and • insight into the future to create the prediction of upcoming trends. • Most importantly, forecasts explain why new trends may occur.
Which characteristic that helps or hinders the adoption of an innovation is a gauge of the difficulty faced by a consumer in understanding and using an innovation?
complexity
Microtrends may take the form of a(n) __________, or trends that contrast with the prevailing set of trends, but still offer an opportunity for a business to capitalize on the movement.
countertrend
Variations when style features repeat over time in response to an underlying trend are described as:
cyclical
If fashion innovators and fashion-forward retailers adopt a specific look, what kind of trend is occurring?
directional
According to Robertson's 1971 model of the adoption process, which stage occurs only when the consumer questions the adoption decision and seeks reassurance?
dissonance
There are many social media influencers who are not as well known as celebrities,
• but who are well known by their followers in their own specific product categories.
From emerging economies to different standards of living,
• forecasters follow global trends to provide a framework • for analyzing the needs of the larger consumer base • that exists well beyond the borders of the United States.
For forecasters, understanding the demands of the global market
• is essential for success for today's businesses.
Retail, design, and trend specialists observe, track, and analyze the changes:
• look for distinguishable patterns and meaning.
• Fashion forecasters project these long-term social and cultural shifts:
• population trends, • technological advances, • demographic movement, and • developments in consumer behavior
The zeitgeist, or spirit of the time,
• shifts as consumers' needs and preferences change.
The clients use the forecasts to enhance brand awareness and marketing opportunities
• so that they can manufacture goods that the customer will want and buy.
Retailers collects specific information about a manufacturer's product and tracks performance.
• such as when the merchandise was sold, how many pieces were sold, and at what rate, what sizes sold best, what colors sold first, what incentives were offered, and when markdowns occurred.
The studies also take into consideration
• the climate that can influence the lifestyle of a region.
Forecasters must be aware of:
• the ever-changing economic conditions throughout the world • to be able to predict the future accurately.
Once a forecaster has collected information through in-house studies, from Internet sources, with the assistance of sales and market research specialists, or from trade or government organizations,
• the task of interpreting the data is next.
Businesses using a forecasting method known as predictive analytics
• to help accurately determine and project consumer demands to provide the right quantity and quality of product at the right time • to ensure profitability and growth.
Forecasters use their instincts and experience
• to sense shifts in lifestyles, preferences, and repetition of ideas.
Data analytics firms analyze millions of SKUs (Stock Keeping Units) and
• use complicated formulas to gather and analyze • consumer preferences for color, size, fabric, silhouette, timing, and price points.
For fashion forecasters, identifying and understanding the way that fashion moves through society is critical in determining:
• where fashion will go next, • which trends will be widely accepted, and • what the pace of that adoption will be.
LONG-TERM FORECASTING
2+ years Macro shifts/ mega trends
SHORT-TERM FORECASTING
6m-18m+ Micro shifts
• Waste management
> upcycling, composting, repurposing
Fashion Forecasting Objectives
Identify the who, what, why, where, and when of fashion forecasting • Introduce the history of fashion forecasting4 • Explain how fashion forecasting is done • Define fashion forecasting and key terms • Identify fashion forecasting services
socialogical
Changes in fashion are directly related to variations in lifestyle and attitudes of customers according to the times.
Target Audience and Consumer Segmentation
Identifying the target audience or the segment of the population • who may adopt new products and ideas • at a specific time in the future • is crucial in forecasting the evolution of fashion.
What makes a product fashionable? • What makes merchandise new and exciting or old and out of style? • Who decides what will be "in fashion" the next season? • Where do these ideas and concepts come from?
Fashion Forecasting
Consumer Segment:
Groups of consumers who share similar demographic, economic, sociological, and psychological characteristics.
Consumer Segmentation
Particular customers who share lifestyles, preferences, and desires • must be identified and targeted.
Trendsetters and Influencers
Play a critical role in the fashion process. • Identifying trendsetting groups while observing their style and taste selections gives forecasters important clues about upcoming ideas.
What is fashion forecasting?
The practice of predicting changing future trends based on past and present style-related information • Interpretation and analysis of the motivation behind a trend • Recommendation(s) for its influence on a fashion company's business decisions • With research-based justification of why the prediction is likely to succeed
social media sites
These sites are being used as a marketing device to spread viral messages about brands, products, and trends.
Long term or Macro Forecasting
Trends are predicted at least two years ahead • most often a decade in advance. • This extended type of forecasting • seeks to identify the shifts that represent the mood of the era • the kind of ominous thinking or high spirits that can mark a historical period. • is less about specific details and • more about positioning one's business for long-term growth. • Information is curated from big social, cultural, technological shifts • can be observed by monitoring lifestyle changes. • Information is then edited and macro trends are identified. •based on the "why"
Why forecast fashion?
Understanding, knowing, and predicting the needs and desires of consumers help the designers, retailers, and manufacturers make wellinformed decisions. • By knowing and understanding the consumer, fashion firms can deliver the right product or service into the market at the right time, the right place, in the right quantities priced for the right customer. • For business success, all five elements (product, time, place, quantities, and customer) must come together.
Three questions that forecasters must undertake:
What has already happened in the past that influences fashion today? • What is presently happening that will notably affect fashion in the near future? • What is likely to occur in fashion in the distant future and WHY?
style
a distinctive appearance and combination of unique features that creates a look that is acceptable at the time by a majority of a group.
The Fashion Group International ( www.fgi.org )
a professional organization in the fashion industry that includes members focusing on apparel, home, and beauty markets. The organization provides insights that influence fashion direction for the marketplace, including lifestyle shifts, contemporary issues, and global trends.
Forecasters must be able to promote themselves and their ideas.
With intelligence, curiosity, skill, and intuition, a successful forecaster learns to identify prominent trends and translate this information into profitable decisions.
What is the term for the process consisting of identifying underlying similarities or differences such as silhouette, fabric, or color across ensembles and design collections?
abstracting
Although celebrities can often perpetuate a trend and influence sales
an influencer does not necessarily need to start out as a celebrity or person of a specific talent.
In fashion forecasting, when a phenomenon is dissected to achieve a more complete understanding of its components, what process is occurring?
analysis
How long has fashion forecasting been around?
as early as the 1910s
Retailers also look toward:
aspirational brands and competitors for ideas about profitable styles and upcoming trends.
A shift that focuses on sport with style led to the explosion in the market named:
athleisure.
Subjective/Artistic (Qualitative)
awareness, observation, intuition and memory (ex. multiple sightings of emerging trend-"Rule of 3")
• By encouraging people to pass along the marketing message,
information has the potential to spread quickly to a large number of people • through Internet videos, interactive websites, social networking sites, blogs, or text messages.
The Delphi method is associated with which research strategy used by long-term forecasters?
interviewing
• Attitudes and lifestyles can change depending on:
location.
Which of the following is not one of the three factors that were essential for the emergence of a mass market?
mass transit
What is the name of the book author John Naisbitt wrote that was the first trendspotting book to become a bestseller?
megatrends