Final Exam ISQS 3344
Consider an activity that normally takes 14 weeks to complete at a cost of $2,400. The same activity can also be completed in 10 weeks at a cost of $3,200. What is the crash cost per week for the activity described here?
$200
What should the value of the smoothing constant (α) be in an exponential smoothing model to be generally equivalent to a moving average model that has employed a 4-month moving average?
0.4
Use the table provided to solve this problem. What is the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the forecasts provided? Month Forecast Demand Actual Demand April 100 100 May 120 125 June 150 200 July 140 200 August 130 160
15.55
The sales data for high-end staplers at an office store called Staplers are provided in the following table for the previous 5 years. After management plotted this data on a chart, it became clear the sales were predictably increasing in a linear manner. Further, the sales were dependent on time by the function, Y t = 580 + 260t. Compute the forecasted sales in year 6 by utilizing simple linear regression.
2140
Harry, an executive manager at YingYang Inc., plotted the company's energy costs of $1 billion over the last 10 years. His chart implied the energy costs were increasing linearly and predictably. Further, the energy costs were dependent on time by the function, Y t = 5 + 3t. Y t represents the yearly energy cost in year t. Based on this linear equation, what is the value of the intercept that best fits the time series.
5
A typical approach used to collect data for judgmental forecasts is _______. a. survey questionnaire b. single exponential smoothing c. a moving average model d. regression analysis
A
Choose the option that serves as an example of waste in organizations. a. Planned product obsolescence b. Routing a job c. High product variety d. Short order-cycle time
A
Choose the stage of the project life cycle that involves the scheduling of activities. a. The planning stage b. The organizing stage c. The controlling stage d. The defining stage
A
Consider the stages of the project management life cycle. Of those stages, which one incorporates responding to circumstances adversely impacting project participants, managing alterations to baselines, as well as gathering and analyzing status reports? a. The controlling stage b. The organizing stage c. The planning stage d. The closing stage
A
Suppose you were to crash a project. Which statement below is most accurate about your action? a. It increases the total cost of the project. b. It involves the removal of resources from selected project activities to reduce cost. c. It is a trade-off between project revenue and additional input costs. d. It increases the total time taken to complete the project.
A
The table below illustrates the sales data for a specific model of a Blu-ray player. Assuming the forecast sales for May is 32.25, determine the sales forecast for July by applying a simple exponential smoothing (SES) model. Assume the value of the smoothing constant is 0.40. Month Sales Jan 35 Feb 29 Mar 39 Apr 42 May 40 Jun 42 a. The sales forecast for July is more than 35 but less than or equal to 40. b. The sales forecast for July is more than 30 but less than or equal to 35. c. The sales forecast for July is more than 45 but less than or equal to 50. d. The sales forecast for July is more than 40 but less than or equal to 45.
A
Use the table of tube sock sales provided below to determine the forecast error in month 4 using a 3-month moving average. Assume each column's data are that of consecutive months. Month 1 2 3 4 Sales 88 102 125 122 a. The forecast error in month 4 is more than 15. b. The forecast error in month 4 is more than 10 but less than or equal to 15. c. The forecast error in month 4 is more than 5 but less than or equal to 10. d. The forecast error in month 4 is less than or equal to 5.
A
When are moving average (MA) methods most effective? a. Demand is relatively stable and consistent. b. There is a major trend in a time series. c. A cyclical pattern is observed in a time series. d. A long planning horizon is involved.
A
When the time series in an exponential smoothing model produces a negative trend, the _______. a. forecast will overshoot the actual values b. future forecasts will rely solely upon expertise of people in developing forecasts c. mean square error will be negative d. value of smoothing constant will either be less than zero or greater than one
A
Which of the options has the most utility for allocating budgets among divisions, scheduling jobs and resources, and planning workforce levels? a. Intermediate-range forecasts b. Make-to-stock operations c. Short-range forecasts d. Make-to-order operations
A
Which statement best characterizes the beta probability distribution approach within the framework of Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)? a. It allows managers to identify the best case, worst case, and most likely case for activity times. b. It is rigid in characterizing the distribution of times. c. It forces activity times to a symmetric normal probability distribution. d. It describes the inherent similarity in the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic time estimates.
A
Which term describes the value achieved by subtracting the forecast value from the observed value in a time series? a. Forecast error b. Forecast consumption c. Forecast density d. Forecast precision
A
With data patterns in a time series in mind, which term describes an explainable, one-time variation? a. Irregular variation b. Random variation c. Seasonal variation d. Cyclical variation
A
With time series data patterns in mind, which type of pattern can be described as regular upturns and downturns in a data series which occur over long periods of time? a. Cyclical patterns b. Parallel patterns c. Seasonal patterns d. Orthographic patterns
A
Within the framework of the major categories of waste classified by the Toyota Motor Company, which statement is most accurate regarding overproduction? a. It ties up production facilities, and the resulting excess inventory simply sits idle. b. It allows queues to build up between operations, resulting in longer lead times. c. It is a result of inefficient workplace design and location of tools and materials. d. It is waste associated with the expense of idle stock and extra storage.
A
A manufacturer of motorcycle motors is crafting a new Kanban system for motor #34. The demand for #34 is 50 parts per day, and 10 parts can be held at a time in the container. The duration of the total processing and waiting time is 6 days. The manager wants a safety factor (α) of 2, or 200%. How many Kanbans are required in this system? a. 100 b. 90 c. 95 d. 85
B
Barry Bonds opens a plant in Lansing called Lugnuts Manufacturing. The plant uses a Kanban system for a component. The demand is 150 units, daily. Every container has a combined waiting and processing time of 0.4 days. If the container size is 10 brackets and the safety factor is 11 percent, what number of Kanban card sets needs to be authorized? a. 5 b. 7 c. 6 d. 4
B
Choose the forecasting technique used for forecasting the time series value in a subsequent period by employing a weighted average of previous time-series values. a. A grassroots forecast b. Single exponential smoothing c. A moving average forecast d. Regression analysis
B
Choose the most accurate statement regarding simple exponential smoothing. Assume the time series is relatively stable with minimal random variability. a. Values of the smoothing constant smaller than 0.1 allow a forecast to react faster to changing conditions. b. Values of the smoothing constant larger than 0.5 place more emphasis on recent data. c. Exponential smoothing models completely forget past data if the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1. d. Typical values for the smoothing constant are in the range of 1 to 1.5.
B
Choose the term characterized as a temporary and often-customized initiative consisting of several smaller tasks and activities? It's necessary these tasks and activities are coordinated and completed in order to finish the whole initiative by its due date and within the allotted budget. a. Product-process matrix b. Project c. Resource plan d. Schedule
B
Consider the realm of project management for this answer; _______ a project involves reassigning and releasing people. a. defining b. closing c. planning d. organizing
B
For a time series, its systematic pattern of decline or growth is characterized as its _______. a. planning horizon b. trend c. forecast error d. bias
B
How is the slack time (ST) for an activity calculated? Answer this question using what you know of the Critical Path Method (CPM). a. The earliest finish (EF) time minus the latest start (LS) time b. The latest start (LS) time minus the earliest start (ES) time c. The latest start (LS) time minus the earliest finish (EF) time d. The latest finish (LF) time minus the earliest start (ES) time
B
Jim Halpert has less time to finish a project because of the antics of his boss, Michael Scott. Which term describes reducing the time allowable to complete a project in order to meet a revised due date? a. Activity sequencing b. Crashing a project c. Benchmarking d. Project resource leveling
B
Justin Timberlake wants to know which system produces finished-goods inventory in advance of customer demand using a forecast of sales. What should you tell him? a. Kanban system b. Push system c. Just-in-time system d. Pull system
B
Of the choices provided, which can be defined as repeatable periods of ups and downs over relatively short periods of time, as it pertains to data patterns and variations in a time series? a. Random variations b. Seasonal patterns c. Cyclical patterns d. Irregular variations
B
Which method is used in the construction of a statistical model that establishes a relationship between one or more independent, numeric variables and one dependent, numeric variable? a. Judgmental forecasting b. Regression analysis c. The Delphi method d. The Cooke method
B
Which of the following dictates the duration of any project? a. The shortest path through the project network b. The longest path through the project network c. The average durations of all the paths through the network d. None of these alternatives is correct.
B
Which of the following dictates the duration of any project? a. The shortest path through the project network b. The longest path through the project network c. The average durations of all the paths through the network d. None of these alternatives is correct.
B
Which sentence harbors the most truth about a typical functional organization? a. Team members are assigned exclusively to projects in a typical functional organization. b. A project cuts across organizational boundaries in a typical functional organization. c. It makes communication across the organization easier and smooth. d. It eliminates duplication of resources.
B
_______ is focused on making sure operating systems perform their desired function reliably. a. A just-in-time system b. Total productive maintenance c. An intermittent production system d. Total quality management
B
As it pertains to forecasting, _______ references a forecast's tendency to be larger or smaller than the actual values of a time series on a consistent basis. Answers: a. trend b. variability c. bias d. fad
C
Choose the statement that is most accurate in describing a push manufacturing system. a. It leads to minimal inventories and maximum responsiveness. b. In this system, finished goods are made to coincide with the actual rate of demand. c. It leads to high work-in-process inventories and high levels of indirect labor and overhead. d. In this system, just enough new parts are procured to replace those withdrawn.
C
Putting a new computer-aided design system into practice exemplifies a project in the functional area of ______. a. marketing b. logistics c. engineering d. operations
C
Select the most accurate statement with regards to the Critical Path Method (CPM). a. It accounts for the interruptions that may affect an activity between the start and the finish times. b. It uses the variance in the critical path activities to evaluate the risks associated with project completion times. c. It assumes that activities are independent of one another, with clearly defined start and finish dates. d. It allows us to investigate the effects of uncertainty of activity times on project completion times.
C
The average time for any PERT task to reach completion is determined by _______. a. The most probable time for completion b. The average of all of the estimates coming from the experts c. The formula (a + 4m + b)/6 d. None of these alternatives is correct
C
The district magistrate of Arkham City has decided to rebuild the busiest road in the city. She plans to close the street for the duration of the work, causing immense inconvenience to the people who typically use the road. The project has 3 parallel paths defined as the following: Path A-B-C-H will take 16 days. Path A-D-E-H will take 22 days. Path A-F-G-H will take 30 days. Given the information on hand, which of the following statements is true? a. The expected duration of the project is 68 days. b. Path A-D-E-H has the largest slack time. c. Path A-F-G-H is the critical path. d. Activities B, D, and F have an earliest starting time of 0
C
The number of Kanban cards required in a system is solvable by the equation K space equals space fraction numerator d space left parenthesis p space plus space w right parenthesis space left parenthesis space 1 space plus alpha right parenthesis over denominator C end fraction. In this instance, what does the variable α represent? a. The reorder point b. The demand during lead time c. A form of safety stock d. Capacity utilization
C
What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts in the provided table? Month Forecast Demand Actual Demand April 190 200 May 175 185 June 190 220 July 240 230 August 260 240 a. More than 25 but less than or equal to 30 b. More than 10 but less than or equal to 15 c. More than 15 but less than or equal to 20 d. More than 20 but less than or equal to 25
C
Which of the following are discrete tasks which require resources and time, within the context of projects? a. Value chains b. Processes c. Activities d. Schedules
C
Which of the options provided are associated with the effective planning of facility expansion? a. Make-to-stock operations b. Intermediate-range forecasts c. Long-range forecasts d. Make-to-order operations
C
A tracking signal offers the means to monitor a forecast by numerically representing _______. a. throughput b. validity c. probability d. bias
D
Consider the functional area of accounting and finance. Which of the following is an example of a project that belongs to that area? Selected Answer: a. Installing a revenue management system b. Market research study c. Annual performance and compensation review d. Planning a firm's initial public offering
D
Consider the topic of lean tools and approaches. Which of the following choices is the component of the 5S principles that encompasses a clean work area? a. Standardize b. Sort c. Sustain d. Shine
D
Select the forecast or method that is rooted in the assumption future outcomes will be an extrapolation of previous observations. a. The Cooke method b. The Delphi method c. Judgmental forecasting d. Statistical forecasting
D
What technique is used to predict future demands when historical data is unavailable? Answers: a. Regression analysis b. Statistical forecasting c. Exponential smoothing d. Judgmental forecasting
D
Wheelie Bikes, a motorcycle manufacturer, adheres to a traditional manufacturing system. A fixed number of motorcycles are produced monthly. The company is now planning to change course and employ a system of manufacturing where workers go to the source of required parts and withdraw them based on requirements. What will likely be the result of Wheelie Bikes implementing this plan? a. Its inventory levels will increase significantly when the demand is low. b. Its finished goods inventory will decrease, but raw materials and work-in-process inventories will increase. c. Its workers, at any given process, will produce units before they are needed. d. Its component parts and subassemblies will be replenished only when needed.
D
Which of the following are instrumental in the planning of production schedules and the assignment of workers to jobs by operations managers? a. Credit scorecards b. Intermediate-range forecasts c. Balanced scorecards d. Short-range forecasts
D
