Final water wars
o Annex VII
) An arbitral tribunal constituted in accordance with Annex VII •Both states can name 4 arbitrators . •An arbitration tribunal of 5 members is then selected from the list of nominees. •Both states may select on of their nominees. •The remaining three are then chosen by agreement of both states. •One of these three are made the President of the Tribunal. •The tribunal determines its own procedures for hearing the case and must allow all parties the opportunity to present their case. UNCLOS •C) An arbitral tribunal constituted in accordance with Annex VII •All decisions made by the tribunal must be made with majority support. •If one or more parties are absent or stop taking part in the tribunal, the other party may request the proceedings continue. •Refusal to take part or present a case does not stop the tribunal! •Decisions made by the tribunal are final and must be confined to the issue which was originally brought forward. •No appeals are allowed unless all parties agree to an appeal procedure. IT IS FINAL AND BINDING RESOLUTION
Resources and conflict (Le Billon). In his political ecology approach, how can resource scarcity and resource abundance both cause conflict (scarce resource wars vs. abundant resource wars)? How does the geographical location and extraction of natural resources (proximate vs. distant, point vs. diffuse) influence the chances for conflict? 1 Proximate - 2 Distant / State control - 3 Point - - 4 Diffuse - What typology does the author develop (Table 1) to help understand the relationship between resources and war? What kinds of conflict are most likely in each scenario (e.g. point, proximate state control/coups)? 1 Violent state-Control,Coups -2 rebellion -3 secession - 4warlordism
scarce resource wars- According to advocates of the scarce resource wars hypothesis, people or nations will fight each other to secure access to the resources necessary for their survival: the more scarce the resource, the more bitter the fight Abundant resource wars- According to the abundant resource wars argument, primary commodities are easily and heavily taxable and are therefore attractive to both the ruling elites and their competitors. The availability of abundant resources would therefore represent the 'prize' of state or territorial control thereby increasing the risk of greed-driven conflicts while providing armed groups with the 'loot' necessary to purchase military equipment 1 Proximate - Closer to capital or major area - decreases conflict 2 Distant - closer to borders-increases conflict 3 Point resources-spread over small area-mines-increases conflict 4 Diffuse resources- spread over a large area- agriculture. Fisheries, forests- decrease conflict 1 proximate point- violent State-control, coups 2 proximate diffuse- rebellion/rioting 3 Distant point- succession 4 Distant diffuse-warlordism
Rothwell Truman Proclamation
unilateral declaration to exercise jurisdiction and control over the natural resources of the sea bed of the contiguous continental shelf numerous state responded by dropping the customary law 3 mile territorial sea boundary to make larger maritime claims largely centered around trying to secure oil resources
Dispute resolution o ITLOS Advisory jurisdiction
•A) the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) was established in accordance with Annex VI •Has jurisdiction over almost any maritime issue. •Contentious jurisdiction: Has jurisdiction over all disputes concerning the interpretation or application of UNCLOS. •Advisory jurisdiction: May give legal advice and opinions on legal disputes which arise within the scope of the convention . •21 judges representing 21 separate states. •Nominated by secret ballot.•Appointed to 9-year terms not binding
Climate Change - Major climate change agreements. Montreal Agreement 1987 •UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992 •Kyoto Protocol 2005 (adopted in 1997). •Paris Agreement 2015 - Competing arguments of climate change impact on conflict. Three mechanism tested Burke and Burhuag what are they saying and conclusions - Relationship between rainfall and civil conflict - Ask who was this policy (Hendrix).
•UNCLOS-Does do not mention climate change, mentions that states must protect the environment Montreal Agreement 1987 •States must stop producing chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) which severely damage the ozone layer. •Signed and ratified by every state. •Eliminated 99% of ozone-depleting substances. •UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992 •Established a forum for discussing climate issues and global warming. •Produced the Kyoto Protocols and the Paris Agreement. •Kyoto Protocol 2005 (adopted in 1997). • First legally binding climate treaty. • Developed countries are required to reduce carbon emissions to 5% below 1999 levels. • Does NOT make any binding requirements on developing states. • the USA initially signed, refused to ratify, and then withdrew. •Paris Agreement 2015. • All states must pledge to reduce carbon emissions. • Goal to prevent a global temperature increase of 2o • Reach net-zero emissions by the 2nd half of the century. • States must assess the progress every 5 years. However, no enforcement. • the US entered into the agreement, withdrew, then reentered. Climate change and conflict• The link between climate change and conflict has been under debate for decades. •Qualitative and quantitative studies have found competing findings. •Three mechanisms are often examined for their connection to the conflict. • Natural disasters • Sea-level rises • Increased resource scarcity Burke - Fluncucation in temperature will increase the likelihood of war -But he was wrong and Buhaug corrected him Buhaug •Conclusions• Is climate change to blame for civil conflicts? Not according to the data. • Could it increase civil conflict in the future? Possibly. • Climate change will accelerate. • Temperature fluctuation right now are not as bas as they will be. • Larger states will be affected. • Best explanations for civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa today are political exclusion, economic health, and geopolitical timeframe. Hendrix & Slaeyhan •Findings • Increased rainfall associated with the onset of civil conflict. • U-shaped relationship between rainfall fluctuation and social conflict. • An increase in rainfall of 2 standard deviations above the mean resulted in a 38.09% increase in the total expected social conflict events. • Increase of 3 SD from the mean = increase of 88.19% of social conflict events. • A decrease in rainfall of 3 standard deviations below the mean resulted in a 103.49% increase in the total expected social conflict events.e
China's distant waters fishing fleet (Zhang) CASE EXAMPLE What is the biggest problem related to china fleet
•Zhang • China is by far the largest fishing state in terms of production and the size of their fleet. • Growing demand, technological development, and government incentives has resulted in massive growth of aquaculture and Distant Waters Fishing (DWF) fleet. • Chinese fishing fleet is pushing further and further out to sea and into the EEZs of other states. • This has led to a growing number of EEZ violations by China's offshore fishing fleet. • Chinese fishermen prefer fishing in foreign waters due to an abundance of fish and excellent marine environment management by foreign states (esp. South Korea and Japan). • Chinese fishermen do not understand the restrictions of UNCLOS or international law. Tensions with neighbors. •With the signing of UNCLOS, large areas which had been traditional fishing grounds became the EEZ of foreign states. • States which catch Chinese boats in their waters tend to overreact. • The large numbers of violations have led some states to automatically assume that a Chinese vessel does not have permission to operate (when it actually does), leading do unlawful seizures. • This occasionally leads to retaliation by the fishermen. • As China increases its emphasis on DWF, and demand increases, China has increased its pressure on disputed maritime claims (think South China Sea).
. 1 1995 Fish Stock Agreement Arctic 2 Truman proclamation 3 Rules of actors in the Artic-How many members and article council what is there purpose-limitation - Major actors. -4 Common arguments about the arctic. Birgham 5 Conclusion of Arguments
1 1995 stock agreement dealt with straggling and highly migratory fishing stocks 1 States must cooperate to develop migratory and straddling fish stocks in a way that is mutually beneficial and protects the health of the fish stock 1 provides some basic measures for ensuring compliance and enforcement 2 Truman proclamation 2 unilateral declaration by the US to exercise jurisdiction and control over the natural resources on the sea bed of the noncontiguous continental shelf-Resulted in larger maritime claims 3 Rules of actors in the artic Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the US - Organization would be the arctic council - established in 1996 and are 8 state members and an ingenious organization 3 Actors -IGO,NGOs, States 3 article council purpose 3 primarily works to protect the Arctic environment and advise states which develop in the region provide information and expertise to artic states and parties to ensure safe and effective development of artic resources 3 limitation - they have no enforcement 3 Disputes overfishing lanes 4 Common argument(Birgham) in the artic is that we need a new artic UNCLOS everyone is jumping to get claim basically an artic gold rush, Artic is a vast storehouse of natural resources, Artic will become a shipping highway, WE NEED A NEW ARCTIC TREATY 5 The conclusion is we do not really need a new artic treaty and many of the problems are solved under UNCLOS or are not very important
- Environmental scarcity and international conflict (Stalley). 1 How does Stalley characterize the debate about environmental scarcity & conflict? Is this similar to earlier readings in the class? 2 Hypothesis 1 and 2 Stalley Low fresh water and fish stocks during international conflict 3 Hypothesis 3 and 4 Environmental Scarcity and international conflict -What do soil degradation and population density do to the likelihood of conflict 4 Five and six hypotheses Countries with overall high environmental scarcity or are vulnerable to it have more conflict 5 Are the findings consistent across countries with different development/wealth levels?
1 Stalley argues in favor of traditional thought that the increase in environmental scarcity will lead to interstate conflict. This thinking is similar to the thought at the beginning of this course. 2 Stalley finds that neither has any impact 3 both soil degradation (Hypothesis 3) and population density (Hypothesis 4) is significant and increases the likelihood of conflict 4 Not sufficient enough data to support the claim 5 Yes, as GDP wealth and development increase, the likelihood of a MID decreases among those in the 5%, 25%, 45%, and 85% percentiles.
- Hendrix & Glaser (2011) 1 Summary 2 Four mechanisms and what are they 3 Findings 1 Does civil war positive or negative impact of fish catch grown 2 Impact on inland fisheries strong or negative 3 When can the effects be observed 4 Do fishing industries Recover immediately 5 does it have a greater impact on fish catch then severe weather storms
1 The authors examine how armed civil conflict affects economic and food production in terms of fishing. They argue that redeployment of labor resources, population displacement, counter-insurgency tactics, and third-party encroachment will reduce fishery production. Their results show that civil war does in fact reduce fish catch compared to prewar production. 2 What are the four mechanisms through which civil conflict could reduce fish catch? • Redeployment of labor • States and rebels often target manual laborers, such as fishers, to join their ranks and fight. • Population Displacement • People who are able will try to flee the fighting. • Counter-insurgency strategy • Governments and insurgents have an incentive to destroy the means of production to deny their benefit to the enemy. • Third-party encroachment. • If the state cannot stop them, foreign fishing fleets will take advantage of the chaos 3 Findings 1 Civil war has a strong and negative impact of fish catch growth. Fish catch is reduced by ~16.4% over the two years following civil war onset. • 2 Civil war has a stronger negative impact on inland fisheries than on marine fisheries. • 3 The negative effect of civil war and civil conflict is only observed in the year the conflict occurs and the following two years afterward. •4 No evidence that fishing industries immediately recover after the end of a civil war/conflict. •5 Civil war has a greater negative impact on fish catches than extreme weather (El Nino)
Questions surrounding UNCLOS 1 how many states ratified the treaty 2. Which UNCLOS for Island and Rocks Island vs rocks differences and rules surrounding each artificial islands 3 Artificial island Rights? 4 EEZ when and how do states get an EEZ? Base Lines? What rights do EEZ have, What rights do they not have, and what rights do other states have? 5 Difference between Territorial waters and EEZs 6 what are Territorial water 7 What are Contagious zones 8 what are High Seas
1.179 out 194 Signed it and only 164 have ratified the treaty 2 UNCLOS 3 -: Island and rocks Differences -Islands are naturally formed,100 percent surrounded by water, and Habitable. Must be above water at low tide, Banks and Reefs do not count -Rocks do not have life or economic activity Island and rocks rulings- Islands are granted EEZ - territorial seas and contiguous zones and boundaries and Rocks do not get anything 3 Artificial Islands States have exclusive rights over artificial islands and structures inside their territorial waters and EEZ but they can establishment of safety zones Protect navigation around the islands protect the islands itself passing ships must respect these zones 4 States get an EEZ over an island once they establish ownership of that Island by using the Law of the sea when they form a bilateral or multilateral agreement over maritime issues. 4 The baseline-imaginary line goes around your coast from an established baseline 4 EEZ- 200nm Within the EEZ, the country has rights over natural resources. Costal has complete jurisdiction over the Building of artificial islands, Conduction of scientific Research, and Environmental protection 4 States have sovereign rights to all living and living resources in their EEZ. If states cannot extract a certain resource they are supposed to allow other states to access that resources ,states are allowed to set limits and regulations on fishing R 4 The country has jurisdiction over some activities for the reasons of environmental protection, among others. It also has to respect the rights of other countries in the EEZ such as the freedom of navigation. 5 The difference between the territorial sea and the EEZ is that the former confers full sovereignty over the waters, whereas the latter is merely a "sovereign right" which refers to the coastal nation's rights below the surface of the sea. The surface waters are international waters. 6 Territorial waters- 12nm out from baseline into sea Area wherein the country has the exclusive rights of legislation and enforcement of jurisdiction-Who is allowed and what activities -Absolute sovereignty 7 Contagious Zones-24 nm is an extension of maritime territory where the state has limited powers and jurisdiction-Half sovereignty allows to enforce of laws concerning maritime costums Sanitary/Fiscal policy and immigration regulation.ETC 8 High seas-Part of the ocean owned by no one and free to be navigated and explored by anyone-outside on an EEZ anyone can navigate or have legal jurisdiction on the High seas or economic gain
o ICJ Binding ? What does it do
B) International Court of Justice Has jurisdiction as long as party states agree it has jurisdiction Has the jurisdiction in contentious cases and advisory proceedings ICJ decisions are final, binding, and generally not subject to appeal, meaning that they permanently affect the legal rights and obligations of the states involved in the dispute. . •Contentious cases: Disputes between states (and only states).•Oral arguments are heard, and the court makes a final judgement.•Decisions are binding in these cases. •Advisory proceedings: May provide legal opinions and advice. •These opinions are not binding •Is the principal judicial arm of the United Nations. •Is still used to adjudicate maritime disputes such as border and EEZ demarcation and shipping disputes, even after the establishment of ITLOS. •No state has any permeant member on the ICJ. •Court may hear cases as long as the party states agree the court has jurisdiction. •States agree to submit their case to the Court. •An existing treaty mandates that cases be referred to the court. •States declare or have declared that the Court has jurisdiction.
- Buhaug (2010) vs Burke et al. (2009) what does Burke think about temperature increases and the likelihood of war? What does Buhaug think about climate change is it to blame for civil conflict
Burke - Fluncucation in temperature will increase the likelihood of war -But he was wrong and Buhaug corrected him Buhaug •Conclusions• Is climate change to blame for civil conflicts? Not according to the data. • Could it increase civil conflict in the future? Possibly. • Climate change will accelerate. • Temperature fluctuation right now is not as bad as it will be. • Larger states will be affected. • Best explanations for civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa today are political exclusion, economic health, and geopolitical timeframe.
Terrorism - 1 How do we define terrorism? 2 Maritime terrorism? 3 SUA Convention 1988. - What does it outline what is the ISPS / - What does it mandate what is the CSA / -What does it establish what is the WCO Framework of Standards?- What does it encourage -
Difficult to define maritime terrorism UNCLOS says about terrorism - Nothing The systematic use or threat to use acts of violence against international shipping and maritime services by an individual or group to induce fear and intimidation in a civilian population in order to achieve political ambitions or objectives' -Christopher C. Joyner Maritime Terriosim -Extremely rare but possible in the future we can see more SUA Convention • Basically, outlines what actions are considered hostile and unlawful on the seas. • Drafted in response to the hijacking of an Italian passenger ship by the PLF. • Limitations: Fails to give states the right to enforce it. Largely reactive. • International Ship and Port Facility Security code (ISPS) • Sets out mandatory security requirements for governments, port authorities, and shipping companies. Also suggests some additional measures to enhance security but does not require them. • Applies to almost all types of ships, except warships, government vessels not in commercial use, and fishing vessels. • Problem: In the event of non-compliance by a ship, or a fear of a security threat, then the port authorities are required to bring the ship close to the port or even into the port for inspection. • If the ship is carrying a WMD, then it could place other ships or the port itself at risk. Container Security Initiative. • 90% of global trade involves transport through shipping containers. • 7,500,000 containers enter the US annually, only 2% are inspected. • 3 key elements of CSI. • Establishment of criteria or identifying high risk cargo. • Pre-screening of containers before they arrive in the US. • Utilization of technology to pre-screen high risk containers. • The U.S. negotiates with other states bilaterally to enter into the CSI. • Financial penalties can be applied to shipping companies or states which violate CSI regulations WCO Framework of Standards. •Takes elements of the CSI and 24-hour rule. •Encourages states to develop universal safety and security plans and regulations gradually. •Focuses on electronic documentation and non-invasive inspection.
- Arctic waters and Arctic states (Klare 2012) CASE EXAMPLE What are some of the unique are risks associated with developing artic resources
Exploration of hydrocarbons in the Arctic carries a number of risks. • Collisions between icebergs and oil rigs. • 'Gas-kicks.' Sudden eruptions of high-pressure natural gas that can damage or even destroy an oil rig. (Deepwater Horizon). • Unpredictable ice floes • Some companies have resorted to building artificial islands to block ice from colliding with their ships / oil rigs. • Unpredictable and often severe whether in the Northern and Barents sea. • Development can have severe impacts on marine environment. • Destruction of worlds largest deep water coral reef. • Destruction of kelp fields and natural habitats for hundreds of species. • Accelerated global warming causing a disruption in the feeding and mating patters of Arctic wildlife.
- Hendrix & Salehyan (2012) What does he have to say about rainfall
Hendrix & Slaeyhan •Findings • Increased rainfall associated with the onset of civil conflict. • U-shaped relationship between rainfall fluctuation and social conflict. • An increase in rainfall of 2 standard deviations above the mean resulted in a 38.09% increase in the total expected social conflict events. • Increase of 3 SD from the mean = increase of 88.19% of social conflict events. • A decrease in rainfall of 3 standard deviations below the mean resulted in a 103.49% increase in the total expected social conflict events.e
Natural disasters Summary IPCC reports - Bilateral and multilateral agreements. The 1950s The 1970s The 1980s The 1990s Multilateral agreements- more or less limiting than bilateral agreements - Connections between disasters and conflict (Omelicheva & Slettebak) - Findings -Omelicheva-Instability, Intensity, -Findings Slettebak -Civil war,Droughts, Population - Trends over time.
IPCC report details how climate change will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters as we approach 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels. •Bilateral treaties • Early treaties in the 1950s mostly focused on resource and relief coordination (US & Japan). • Some discuss specific types of aid such as fire fighting services (France & Spain) • By the 1970s, treaties began to outline more general aid and response services over wider areas (France & Germany, France, and Belgium). • By the 1980s some regional agreements began to emerge (EU 1987) • the 1990s saw bilateral agreements on natural disaster relief become far more common, with large networks of agreements within various regions. •Multilateral agreements • Far more limited than bilateral agreements. • Early examples focus on specific issues but do not limit themselves to only natural disasters. • Agreement on the Temporary Importation, Free of Duty, of Medical Surgical and Laboratory Equipment for Use on Free Loan in Hospitals and Other Medical Institutions for Purposes of Diagnosis of Treatment of 1960. The agreement details the provision of medical supplies, but does not specify that they be for responding to natural disastes. • Most comprehensive treaties. • 1986 Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency. • Tampere Convention on the Provision of Telecommunications Resources for Disaster Mitigation and Relief Operations of 1998 Omelicheva-Summary •Theoretically, how do natural disasters increase (or decrease) instability? •Grievances over income, inequality, and status can motivate people to act against the source of their plight (the government). •Opportunity for rebels to act against the government depend on the resources available to the rebels compared to the government. Natural disasters amplify the suffering of people who are already facing resource scarcity and can amplify inequality. Omelicheva •Findings• Only rapid onset disasters (floods, earthquakes, and storms) showed any effect, and only in one test. • a Total number of natural disasters also shows a significant effect, but only in one test and not the others. • Disaster intensity shows no effect. • The controls used (regime type, bad neighborhood, infant mortality, and state-led discrimination, all demonstrated more consistent results. • Full autocracies are the least prone to internal conflict. • States transitioning to democracy appear to have the highest incidence of instability. • Infant mortality consistently increases the chance of instability. • Conflict in neighboring states and discrimination are also shown to increase the chance of conflict. Slettebak- Conclusion The occurrence of natural disasters demonstrates that climate change-related natural disasters appear to lower the chance of civil war Droughts specifically are shown to reduce the likelihood of civil wars completely in contradiction to conventional expectations The chance of civil conflict increases when a disaster occurs in a country with a large population but only by a small amount The chance of civil war increases far more dramatically in cases where it is a large population and no natural disaster
Fisheries - Trends over time. - UNCLOS rules. - How conflict impacts fisheries. Zhang - What does he have to say about china Hendrix and Glaser - What does he have to say about fishing
Increase in fishing has gone up dramatically and overfishing has become a huge problem 90 percent to 65 percent should know that china is the massive fisher of the world china accounts for 35 percent of the world total fish production Fisheries UNCLOS- fish anywhere in highseas and in your own waters,If you cannot exploite your fish resource countrys should do it for you Zhang- China fishing industry has exploded and growing disputes for there neighbor there distant fishing water fleet has bleed over into other countries EEZs growing tensions have rising Hendrix and Glaser-fisheries empirical findings The authors examine how armed civil conflict affects economic and food production in terms of fishing. They argue that redeployment of labor resources, population displacement, counter-insurgency tactics, and third party encroachment will reduce fishery production. Their results show that civil war does in fact reduce fish catch compared to prewar production. civil war has a huge effect on fish catch civil war has a stronger negative impact on inland fisheries than marine fisheries
- Mitchell, Nyman, & Hensel. (2014) Continued What are they talking about The presence of fish and a history of military conflict make BOTH militarization of a maritime claim AND attempts at negotiating a settlement ______likely. • A greater imbalance of power makes militarization AND attempts at negotiation _______likely. • If one or both states in a dyad are a member of UNCLOS, the likelihood of a new maritime claim _________significantly. • Democratic dyads are _______likely to experience competing maritime claims.
Looking at certain factors which many influences the occurrence and escalation of maritime claims Claim of an EEZ over the disputed area membership of UNCLOS •Mitchell, Nyman, Hensel (2014): Looks into what leads to maritime claims and the militarization of those claims . • Presence of fish and a history of military conflict make BOTH militarization of a maritime claim AND attempts at negotiating a settlement more likely. • A greater imbalance of power makes militarization AND attempts at negotiation less likely. • If one or both states in a dyad are a member of UNCLOS, the likelihood of a new maritime claim decreases significantly. • Democratic dyads are more likely to experience competing maritime claims.
Mare liberum: Hugo Grotius -Explain Mare Clausum: John Seldon- Explain
Mare liberum - is Hugo Grotius idea is that of freedom of the seas-The oceans should be free and open to everyone. One state using the Oceans does not affect other states. Open Seas to All Mare Clausum John seldom States should have sovereignty over their waters
Maritime claims (Mitchell, Nyman, & Hensel.) 2014 0 The idea of EEZ and conflict - 1 Binding settlement attempts by a third party are ______ Likely to result in a negotiated agreement 2 The presence of migratory fish stocks and a recent history of military confrontation all make militarization of a Claim _____ likely 3 A greater imbalance of power makes militarization _____likely 4 One or Both states declaring an EEZ ____________the number of bilateral negotiations over a maritime claim 5 one state being a member of UNCLOS ___________the number of negotiations (Both states being UNCLOS has no effects) 6 Migratory fish stocks and recent military conflict make negotiation _________likely, while a greater imbalance of power makes them _________likely 7 If either or both disputing states are members of UNCLOS they will prefer a resolution to the dispute through a third party -True or False 8 If one or both states in a dyad are a member of UNCLOS the likelihood of a new maritime claim __________significantly 9 Democratic dyads are ________likely to experience competing maritime claims
Maritime Conflict does not often involve massive dreadnoughts and fleet battles over maritime territory and resources (Maritime Claims) Looking at certain factors which many influences the occurrence and escalation of maritime claims Claims of an EEZ over the Disputed Area Membership to UNCLOS 0 Conclusion---A negotiated agreement is far more likely if both states declare an EEZ in the disputed area. 1 Binding settlement attempts by a third party are also more likely to result in a negotiated agreement 2 The presence of migratory fish stocks and a recent history of military confrontation all make militarization of a Claim more likely 3 A greater imbalance of power makes militarization less likely 4 One or Both states declaring an EEZ increases the number of bilateral negotiations over a maritime claim 5 one state being a member of UNCLOS decreases the number of negotiations (Both states being UNCLOS has no effects) 6 Migratory fish stocks and recent military conflict make negotiation more likely, while a greater imbalance of power makes them less likely 7 If either or both disputing states are members of UNCLOS they will prefer a resolution to the dispute through a third party 8 If one or both states in a dyad are a member of UNCLOS the likelihood of a new maritime claim decreases significantly 9 Democratic dyads are most likely to experience competing maritime claims
- Omelicheva (2011) Disaster
Omelicheva findings• Only rapid onset disasters (floods, earthquakes, and storms) showed any effect, and only in one test. • a Total number of natural disasters also shows a significant effect, but only in one test and not the others. • Disaster intensity shows no effect. • The controls used (regime type, bad neighborhood, infant mortality, and state-led discrimination, [PITF model]) all demonstrated more consistent results. • Full autocracies are the least prone to internal conflict. • States transitioning to democracy appear to have the highest incidence of instability. • Infant mortality consistently increases the chance of instability. • Conflict in neighboring states and discrimination also shown to increase the chance
Transboundary issues - Refugees. - Interstate war and intrastate war.(Mitchel-2018) Interstate river disputes do what with intrastate conflict?
Refugees - total refugees have gone up significantly throughout the 20th century and the world estimates around 10 percent are contributed to lack of water alone Some research suggests an increase in refugees have crises that can even cause militarized disputes Interstate and intrastate war (Mitchel-2018) Examines the relationship between interstates conflict and intrastate conflict, Find that states which experience more interstate river disputes are more likely to fall victim to intrastate instability Mitchel 2018-Interstate river dispute increases the likelihood of intrastate conflict the more interstate river disputes you have the likelihood goes up and as well that river being your only water source
Innocent Passage: What is it? What are considered violations?
Ships are allowed to pass through territorial sea if their navigation are for peaceful purposes Violations would be things such as smuggling, Fishing, pollution, spying...ETC Freedom of passage is the contested ownership of the island and a nations ship goes through it
- Mitchell (2018) Summary States relationship with interstate and intrastate conflict over diplomatic disputes The frequency and its affects The importance of the river and its affects
Summary: Examines the relationship between interstate conflict and intrastate conflict. Find that that states which experience more interstate river disputes are more likely to fall victim to intrastate instability. • States with more interstate diplomatic river disputes are more likely to experience certain types of intrastate violence (assassinations, guerilla warfare, government crisis, and purges). • The likelihood of some form of intrastate armed conflict increases 46-475% if experiencing at least 1-6 interstate river disputes, respectively. • Likelihood of civil war increases as the number of interstate disputes increases. • Disputing river claims over more salient (important) rivers increase the chance of armed civil conflict.
- Slettebak (2012) What do climate changed related disaster due to the chance of civil wars Do droughts have an effect on civil wars if so how The chance of civil conflict ______when a disaster occurs in a country with a _______population but only by a ______amount
The Occurrence of natural disasters demonstrates that climate change-related natural disasters appear to lower the chance of civil war Droughts specifically are shown to reduce the likelihood of civil war completely in contradiction to conventual expectation The chance of civil conflict increases when a disaster occurs in a country with a large population but only by a small amount The chance of civil war increases far more dramatically in cases where there is a; large population with no natural disasters
- China/India (Klare 2020) CASE EXAMPLE The Prospect of Interstate Conflict over Water Sino—Indian conflict over the Brahmaputra Why might it happen - Main theory
The potential for interstate conflict-even nuclear conflict-over shared water supplies arise in the case of another major river at risk from climate change Another potential source of friction between China and India arises from Chinese plans (or rumors of such plans) to divert water from the upper Brahmaputra and funnel it via a series of tunnels and canals to northeastern China, where existing supplies are hugely inadequate This, however, is where global warming enters the picture. The Brahmaputra, like the Indus, draws much of its flow during dry seasons from the melting of Himalayan glaciers-and these, as has already been noted, are melting as a result of climate change, and could eventually disappear. For both China and India, the melting of the Himalayan glaciers will have momentous consequences some analysts have considered the possibility that water shortages could also lead to conflict between states, notably if the countries involved depend to a considerable extent on a shared river system and if one of the riparian states-typically, the upstream country-diverts the river's flow for its own benefit at the expense of downstream countries.
o Annex VIII What is it Is it binding What does UNCLOS Say
UNCLOS basically annex 7 abut it focuses on fisheries and marine environmental issues,marine research and navigation Recommendation and opinions can issues discussion not as binding as annex 7 •D) A special arbitral tribunal constituted in accordance with Annex VIII for one or more of the categories of disputes specified therein •A list of experts is created and maintained by the United Nations in matters of fisheries, marine environmental protection, marine research, and navigation. •Every state party can nominate 2 experts to these lists. •A special arbitral tribunal under Annex VIII consists of 5 members. •The state initiating the proceedings selects 2 members from the expert lists, one of whom may be national. The other states also select 2. •A final member, the President of the Tribunal is then selected by agreement between the two parties from the lists. UNCLOS •D) A special arbitral tribunal constituted in accordance with Annex VIII for one or more of the categories of disputes specified therein •The special tribunal under Annex VIII operates in the exact same way as tribunals under Annex VII. •An Annex VIII tribunal may be employed to do fact-finding rather than adjudicate a dispute. These facts are to be considered final and conclusive. •Based on these facts, the Tribunal may make a recommendation. This recommendation does not have the same binding weight as an adjudication when part of a fact-finding proceeding.
Unclos 1 vs 2 vs 3
UNCLOS 1 - 1958 Geneva convention UN law brand the international law commission sought to settle question over water claims following ww2- conviction about territorial - fishing - continental shelf - settlement of disputes -high sea- UNCLOS 2 - Geneva convention sought to establish limits for the territorial and fishery zones split between those who favored 6 nautical miles and 12 Largely failed and could not decide between 6 miles or 12-mile territorial sea UNCLOS 3 - formed in response to a large number of maritime claims in the 1960s 151 states IGOs and NGOs 12 nm territorial sea 24 nm contiguous zone 200 nm EEZ Recognized the rights and needs of islands and archipelagic states
Piracy - Most impacted areas. - Pirate targets and tactics - UNCLOS - Factors that influence piracy (Murphy)
UNCLOS every country is required to fight policy on the high seas and within their own boundaries and cannot go into another country to combat them and only government warships can go after pirates most impacted area and general trend - Somalia, Gulf of adain,southeast Asia, west coast of Africa but piracy is at its lowest level since 1994 Murphy - seven major factors, •7 major factors that encourage piracy, lessen the risk of capture and protect pirate resources. •Legal opportunities. •Favorable geography. •Conflict and disorder. •Under-funded law enforcement. •Permissive political environments. •Cultural acceptability. •Reward.
forum shopping Four mechanisms
What is forum shopping? •How does UNCLOS encourage this? UNCLOS allows for this because through the optional clauses in Article 287 to select different courts and through the various non-binding strategies they can use before going to court, countries can optimally find the the best approach for settling maritime conflicts. •Forum shopping involves litigants selecting the tribunal or court that offers the best substantial and procedural advantages. Four mechanisms are ITLOS ICJ Special tribunal Anex 7 special tribunal Anex 8
- Pakistan (Klare 2020) CASE EXAMPLE-Basically what paper was about Pakistan, the Indus, and U.S. Security why might it happen main theory
drought will increase the competition for land and water resources bound to increase and with Pakistan already divided along ethnic and religious lines, widespread civil strife will become ever more likely, possibly jeopardizing the survival of the state. India was granted control over the three tributaries under the Indus Water Treat of 1960, and various Indian leaders have threatened at times to dam the rivers or otherwise reduce their flow into Pakistan as a reprisal for Pakistani attacks on Indian bases in the disputed territory of Kashmir Main theory some analysts have considered the possibility that water shortages could also lead to conflict between states, notably if the countries involved depend to a considerable extent on a shared river system and if one of the riparian states-typically, the upstream country-diverts the river's flow for its own benefit at the expense of downstream countries.
