GOV312L Exam 3
How does a state demonstrate credibility in nuclear deterrence? Understand measures to demonstrate credibility such as brinkmanship, tripwire forces, "the threat that leaves something to chance", and public pronouncements made by democracies.
A state demonstrates credibility by: -making irrevocable (public) commitments, -threats by sending bomber out etc (which leaves more to chance, delegates control, and makes it appear as if the threatener has more confidence regarding using the weapons
2. What is an exchange rate? How do shifts in exchange rates alter patterns of imports and exports? How can exchange rate changes influence trade policy?
An exchange rate reflects differences in value with respect to a different currency. As the dollar appreciates, imports from the foreign country becomes cheaper, so they tend to increase. It is the opposite when the dollar depreciates. Exporting firms seem to like falling dollar, because it makes their exports cheaper to foreign customers.
2. How is the growth of Chinese military and economic power threatening to the United States? And how is the growth of US military capabilities threatening to China?
As China gets more powerful it threatens the American Hegemony especially in East Asia. We view their growing strength as a threat to democracy, human rights, and our military superiority. Also our military capabilities threatens China's growing sphere of influence, ability to emerge as a successful superpower, and accomplish their domestic and international political agenda.
1. What is the basic scientific claim about the causes and extent of climate change? What are the main environmental consequences that scientists fear will result from climate change?
CO2 is heat trapping gas and the gas levels of it have increased significantly since Industrial Revolution along with the global temperature. Scientists believe this is human caused and by 2050 the average global temp could rise by 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit and affect agriculture, sea level civilizations, and resource scarcities along with natural disasters.
Discuss how credibility is based on capabilities and resolve.
Capabilities: the ability to carry out the threat States enhance capabilities by improving their weapons systems Examples: North Korean nuclear and missile tests As NK tested more powerful missiles over the past years, it demonstrated it improved capacity to hit mainland US w nuc weapons so US takes threat more seriously Means to carry out a threat Resolve: the will to carry out the threat States enhance their resolve by managing risk during crises (i.e. brinkmanship) Ex. send aircraft w nuc weapon to armed conflict zone or put their nuc weapons on alert this is called "the threat that leaves something to chance " -Public pronouncements by democracies -"The threat that leaves something to chance" coined by nuc strategist, Thomas Schelling
8. How might national missile defense influence the stability of nuclear deterrence?
Changes incentives for state with NMD. ----incentivize a first strike because it is protected from nuclear retaliation or could make it less cautious because it lowers costs of nuclear war. ----changes incentives for state without NMD. Could incentivize a military buildup to overwhelm missile defenses or launch a preemptive strike before missile defenses become operational.
1. What is the Bretton Woods economic order? What were the main forces that served as an impetus for the U.S. to construct the Bretton Woods order? What are the main organizations that emerged from Bretton Woods?
Economic order that emerged at the end of WWII where US backed creation of International Orgs to reduce trade barriers, sustain globalizations, and facilitate peace. The main forces that served as an impetus were the Great Depression, WWII, and the economic circumstances that led to the rise of Nazi Germany. The main orgs were IMF and World Bank.
2. What is the tragedy of the commons? Why is it rational for individuals to overuse public goods? How does this phenomenon help to explain the difficulty of managing the sustainable use of commonly held public property? Know some examples.
Emerges with public property or resources for which it is difficult (costly) to restrict their use (consumption) Divergence between private benefits and social costs: Individually rational for people states to consume, but diffused costs to society insufficient to prevent overuse Resource gets depleted Examples: oil fields, common grazing lands, overpopulation, fisheries, atmosphere
11. Describe how President Obama's use of executive orders to commit to the Paris climate accord made the U.S. commitment to the agreement vulnerable. Describe how President Trump undermined the Paris climate accord when he came into office and then withdrew the U.S. from the agreement.
Eos can be overturned by the next President and provide a degree of anarchy to the agreement. Trump showed us the impermanence of the agreement by simply walking out of it once coming into office.
3. If trade makes states wealthier, why is there political resistance to globalization?
Even though international trade increases the national wealth of the economy in the aggregate, some groups see income gains AND some groups see income losses a. Globalization tends to drive down returns to owners of scarce factors of production in an economy
3. What is the democratic peace theory? How do the factors that contribute to democracy's influence over foreign policy in general - electoral constraints, institutional constraints on power such as checks and balances, and a shared democratic identity - help to explain, in particular, peaceful relations between democracies?
Military conflict is less likely between two democracies. Electoral constraints raise political costs, checks and balances make peace settlements more durable as it solves the commitment problem, and a shared identity reduces the chance for war.
6. What are remittances? How do remittances help to redistribute wealth from wealthy countries to poorer ones?
Money sent from migrants to family/friends back home. They are a greater form of redistribution than international aid as they cannot be withdrawn, avoid government corruption, and provide a targeted valuable form of social insurance, credit, and investment in countries that lack these markets.
10. What are the pros and cons of the Paris climate accord?
Pros: -commits both developed and developing countries to change (broad collective agreement) -voluntary approach more realistic; agreement could be made more quickly -addresses needs of developing countries by providing money to help them industrialize w/o contributing too much to climate change Cons: -current targets will not get the job done -execution is not guaranteed -no target set on peaking of global emissions before change so peaks will be hit at different times
4. What role do economic sanctions play in the Iran Nuclear Deal? What are some of the strategic risks associated with relaxing them? How does the possibility of eliminating sanctions shape domestic politics in Iran?
Sanctions are what Iran wants lifted and used as the primary bargaining tool. The risks that come with relaxing them are that Iran becomes more empowered and less restrained from developing nukes. By eliminating sanctions, Iran would perform economically better and provide more support for the current government. However recently there is a raised economic cost to cooperation.
5. How is international migration a part of the broader phenomenon of globalization? How does the international flow of labor through international migration create winners and losers within domestic economies?
The movement of people across borders increases economic growth in the aggregate just like other globalization measures regarding trade. It creates income distributional effects as hi tech wants to employ high skilled immigrants to keep costs down and lower labor costs benefit consumers via lower prices and this increases economic growth by increasing the demand for goods. On the other hand, real wages are driven down b y increasing labor supply and migrants can present a cost by increasing demand for social services like schools, public safety, healthcare.
According to your reading for this module, what is the nuclear revolution?
The nuclear revolution in warfare is rooted in the immense destructiveness of nuclear weapons- —in particular, its duration, the targeting of noncombatants, and even the military relationship between winning and losing sides in a conflict.
10. What are the two main dilemmas facing NATO and how has the Trump administration addressed these dilemmas?
The problem of European shrinking and US as a reluctant hegemon. Trump has called for European members to do their part or risk a US exit and he as called for a drawn back America via America First.
How have nuclear weapons complicated the provision of national security?
The richest countries in the world used to simply build up their militaries in order to protect civilians. The military would have to be decimated before civilians would get attacked. This changed slightly with airplanes but even those could be prevented, fought, and shot down. Missiles are unlike anything before because once launched, it's highly unlikely any country would be able to stop such a quick traveling missile. Therefore, there is an immediate bypassing of the military in order to attack civilians. Nuclear armed missiles shift national security strategy of US from one based on defense to one based on deterrence
5. What are the two main political bodies of the UN? How can they confer legitimacy? Which states have the most power within these political bodies?
The security council and general assembly. They confer legitimacy by giving countries a seat at the table and passing binding resolutions institutionalizing some laws and regulating the behavior of countries. The Security council has the most authority, the non rotating members are China, US, UK, France, and Russia.
3. What are some of the examples or varieties of a commitment problem that is limiting the strategic incentives associated with sustaining the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA)?
The shift of US foreign policy activates the commitment problem as it shows elections can change the viability of US to meet obligations.
3. How might international economic organizations, like the WTO and the IMF, facilitate economic cooperation among states and higher levels of international trade?
They can provide enforcement mechanisms such as IMF conditionality and WTO judicial panel, they can reveal info about state interests, monitor compliance, and reduce distributional challenges.
2. Discuss how restrictions on voting rights affected American democracy. What are the major historical expansions of voting rights during American history and how have expanded voting rights affected descriptive representation of women and ethnic minorities? How has universal suffrage affected election outcomes?
They ehave excluded groups of Americans on the basis of race, property, and sex. The first was the expansion to all white males, then black men, then women, then the voting rights act, then the 26th amendment to lower voting age. They have increased their representation to higher levels however the US still lags behind other developed countries. Universal suffrage has led to greater legitimacy fo the system, popular acceptance, and partisan outcomes are affected by who is allowed to vote.
4. What are China's interests relative to Taiwan?
They want to take back Taiwan as they view the status quo as unsustainable.
4. What is the political significance of the dollar's reserve currency status in the global economy?
This reserve status creates a steady demand for financial assets like US treasury bonds that are dominated in dollars. This sets up a situation where the global economy depends on the US to run a budget deficit.
What is nuclear proliferation? Why do states acquire nuclear weapons, sometimes at the risk of provoking severe international backlash? Why do nuclear states and the international community want to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons?
---Nuclear proliferation—the act of non-nuclear states acquiring nuclear weapons ---Non-nuclear states often seek nuclear weapons because they do not trust the credibility of extended deterrence—reasons: Security-Domestic politics-International norms -Nuclear proliferation may increase credibility problems because proliferators lack the fundamentals for secure second strike capabilities
7. Using the module's reading, describe historical waves of democracy and the possible causes of these waves such as demonstration effects, neighborhood effects, conditionality of international organizations, and the influence of hegemons.
-First long wave of democracy lasted for most of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century leading up to WWI: >Democracy remained rare around the world, spread mainly in Europe and the United States >Followed by reverse wave in interwar period >Breakdown of fragile democracies in Germany and Italy and rise of fascism >Autocratic Russia collapsed but replaced with communism -Second short wave of democracy followed WWII: >Western Europe influenced by American hegemony - emergence of dem in West Germany, Italy, Japan, and Austria >Reverse wave took hold in the 1960s and 1970s in Latin America with emergence of dictatorships -Third wave of democracy took hold beginning in the 1970s: >Democratization of Spain, Portugal, and Greece >Collapse of military rule in Latin America >End of 1980s collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe and Soviet Union (most tried democracy at first but ended up autocratic) *some argue now in reverse wave as countries in Russia return to authoritarian rule
2. Discuss the global patterns of international migration. What are the countries with the largest inflows of international migration and which countries have the largest inflows of refugees?
-Grown drastically since 2000, even higher than the global population growth -In general, global migration patterns involve a net flow of people from less developed to more developed countries (global south to global north) >U.S., Saudi Arabia, Germany are top receiving countries >India, Mexico, Russia, China are top sending countries -But not the case with refugees where developing countries like Turkey bear the main burden of receiving
4. How is immigration policy related to partisanship in the United States?
-Immigration Policy and Partisanship: >In the US, immigration policy is closely tied to partisanship. >How will immigrants vote? (distribution of latino votes between parties) -Republicans worry that majority will vote for Democrats. -Permanent political status as minority party in key electoral states like Texas and Florida.
3. What is an externality?
-In economics, an externality is the cost or benefit that affects a party who did not choose to incur that cost or benefit. -Air pollution from motor vehicles is an example of a negative externality. The costs of the air pollution for the rest of society is not compensated for by either the producers or users of motorized transport. Consequence of economic activity that unrelated 3rd parties experience (can be positive or negative).
7. According to your reading for this module, how does international migration affect the demographic composition of countries? How do these demographic changes create conflict within countries over issues of national identity?
-People considered the national language, religion, etc. important to national identity Immigrants with different languages, religions, etc. would cause changes to national identity -These social/racial/cultural changes cause fear of losing these dominance -Majority ethnic groups may feel their privileged social status and dominant political power are under threat because immigration introduces new minority groups that may not share their values. >In US, this is manifest in debates over English as primary language and national identity rooted in Anglo-Protestant culture >In Europe, manifest largely over concerns over Muslim immigration. These concerns are demonstrated by strong public sentiment that knowing the national language and identifying as a Christian is important to national identity.
8. How does international migration intersect with national security? According to your reading for this module, how does international migration present challenges for national security but also resources that can enhance a country's security?
-People considered the national language, religion, etc. important to national identity Immigrants with different languages, religions, etc. would cause changes to national identity -These social/racial/cultural changes cause fear of losing these dominance -Majority ethnic groups may feel their privileged social status and dominant political power are under threat because immigration introduces new minority groups that may not share their values. >In US, this is manifest in debates over English as primary language and national identity rooted in Anglo-Protestant culture >In Europe, manifest largely over concerns over Muslim immigration. These concerns are demonstrated by strong public sentiment that knowing the national language and identifying as a Christian is important to national identity. -Challenge security: Immigration raises fears of infiltration by terrorists through lack of regulation Challenge state sovereignty and worries about the slippery slope if others perceive them as weak -Leads to stricter control/regulation of access through borders, especially of refugees and migrants from countries experiencing war -Enhance security: Accepting migrants increases security by improving relations with other nations by taking in their migrants, or pressuring adversaries by taking in the refugees the adversaries oppressed
3. Why is there a gap between public opinion regarding the preferred levels of immigration and immigration policies adopted by democracies? How does the collective action problem help to explain this gap?
-Public open immigration policy is not popular -Smaller groups are better able to mobilize and affect policy -Agriculture benefit from migration (winners, lower labor costs) -labor and taxpayers (losers) Collective Action Problem: -Powerful interests experience concentrated benefits from immigration while the costs are distributed widely across less organized interests. Collective Action Problem: -Powerful interest groups with less people benefit from immigration (lower labor cost): Agriculture & Tech -But cost of immigration is diffused among all groups, so collective action problem ensues
9. What is a Nationally Determined Contribution?
-Set nationally, voluntary; not negotiated internationally -EU: Pledged to reduce emissions by 40% in 2030 from 1990 levels, set legally binding EU target in October 2014, already down 19%
6. Describe some of the efforts by the United States to promote democracy around the world. What are the political challenges associated with American efforts to promote democracy? What are the benefits and drawbacks associated with promoting democracy around the world?
-Wilson sought to leverage American participation in WWI to expand democracies in the world -promoting democracy took a back seat after WWII >primarily to contain communism -United States used democracy promotion in Germany and Japan after WWII -The end of the cold war was a boom for democracy promotion and democracy promotes greater security for the US -After the Cold War, Clinton intervened in Yugoslavia under humanitarian grounds (to stop genocide) with the goal of democracy promotion -Iraq: Bush (neo-conservatives) with regime change and democracy promotion in the Middle East was his strategy of countering terrorism after 911 resulted in invasion through military forces Challenges -A lot of third world countries especially in Asia that haven't had a good history with the US are wary when they want to introduce democracy because they believe that it will be bad and they don't want to adopt democracy for that reason -post Bush administration (negative effects of Iraq war and its unpopularity in US) results in greater skepticism of democracy promotion by US military forces -Obama continues American commitment to liberal values like democracy but withdrew US military from Iraq and sought to keep US out of long term engagements like Syria -Trump's America First with reducing the economic burden of American hegemony has diminished democracy promotion of US FP Benefits: >other democracies means that there is less chance for war and this means a more stable world order. This means that it is in the interest of big democracies to promote more democracies. Drawbacks: >Can cause people to distrust democracies because it is often achieved thru military intervention >The US promoting democracy in places like latin america during the cold war gave the US a bad rep because of the CIA constantly intervening in elections (made latin america almost frightened of the US) >Cost is a huge drawback when it comes to democracy promotion, as the bill racks up when you start promoting democracy in every country that you deem it necessary >you take away some of the autonomy and sovereignty of a nation when you determine that their way of running things is not the correct way, and try to promote your own system. >it probably pisses a lot of other countries off when the US comes in and tells them (or in a lot of cases, forces them) how to run their country. So the drawback would be the resentment other countries feel toward the United States.
1 What is deterrence? 2 What is a secure second-strike capability and how does it affect nuclear deterrence?
1 Deterrence: when states pressure other states to not launch strikes by threatening to impose a retaliatory attack. Successful attempts rely purely on the threat rather than actions. - This is why the Cold War remained cold, because both sides were deterred by the nuclear weapon threat. - The target of the threat has to believe that the sender of the threat will actually use weapons if they do something they weren't supposed to. - Nukes aren't used, yet they are threats. So why are these threats believed if the threatener clearly would not want to carry out this threat? - They must have second strike capabilities, and the will to carry out threat Main elements of Deterrence: -severe dispute -retaliatory threat -assumption of rationality - unacceptable damage - credibility - stability 2 Secure second strike: the ability, after being struck by a nuclear attack, to strike back with nuclear weapons and cause massive damage to the enemy. Secure second strike capability was seen as a key nuclear deterrent during the Cold War.
1 Under what conditions might nuclear weapons paradoxically make war less likely? 2 What is the problem of credibility in nuclear deterrence? Explain why the effectiveness of deterrent threats depends on credibility.
1 If both sides possess secure second strike capabilities, both sides deterred from launching war Sufficient number of nuclear weapons so that all cannot be destroyed in a first strike by an adversary. Enough survive to launch retaliatory strike. For example, the US and the Soviets avoided direct military confrontation because of the risk of it escalating into a nuclear war. Countries are more motivated to reach peace agreements and avoid direct military violence/action because of the fear that it will escalate. 2 Nukes aren't used, yet they are threats. So why are these threats believed if the threatener clearly would not want to carry out this threat? They must have SSC, and the will to carry out threat (Allies)example of South Korea: they were against us detering NK from possessing nukes because they would get swept up into fighting due to their location
8. According to the reading (Chapter 20: Global Governance), what are the incentives for global governance through international institutions? How are efforts at global governance confronted by the collective action problem? Once international agreements are established, what types of problems of compliance and enforcement do international organizations face?
1. States have incentives for global governance because of negative externalities, high transaction costs, and collective action problems. 2. Overcoming collective action problem in global governance often prove quite difficult for several reasons. First, the problem of distributing the burden of collective goods provision can activate intense struggles among interested parties, both within and between states. The second problem for states or groups of states is one of enforcement, or the punishment for noncompliance. 3. In the absence of a single enforcer, a group of states can provide enforcement. However, each country would like to enjoy the benefits of enforcement without having to pay the cost. Yet if all countries try to shirk the responsibility of providing enforcement, enforcement is under-provided, and would- be aggressors may pursue their goals without fear of reprisal. Given these incentives, establishing credible enforcement is a challenge. In other issue areas, enforcement involves large-scale costs that can make states reluctant to trigger penalties for non-compliant states. For example, if international organizations want to put economic sanctions to punish a country that broke an international agreement o law, sanctions could be costly. Moreover, sanctions sometimes fail to produce the desired behavioral change.
3. What is a trade deficit? How are trade deficits related to foreign capital inflows and investment in the United States?
Also called a current account deficit, occurs when imports exceed exports in a given year. A trade deficit indicates a healthy investment climate in the US since this means the US has a capital account surplus.
6. Why does the United States participate in the United Nations and often abide by its decisions when it could just ignore it instead (because it possesses much greater military capacity than the UN)?
Because the UN holds legitimacy domestically for some policy objectives.
7. How does the status of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the global economy help the Federal Reserve to take such dramatic steps during the pandemic to support the U.S. economy? How is this related to the Hegemonic Stability Theory?
Because the US can just borrow more money from itself and increase the balance sheet amount. This relates to how the US is at the center stage of the global economy since 1919 by creating a dependency on US economy, capital, and steady demand for dollar.
8. How have domestic political considerations (and the distributional consequences of trade) in the United States contributed to this trade war?
Blue collar workers have supported it because globalization has hurt them and helped elect Trump.
4. Describe the tradeoffs associated with participation in international organizations and national sovereignty.
By working on a multilateral basis via the UN you are voiding some sovereignty in order to cooperate. This can also result in the decline of authority of domestically elected officials in order to legitimize UN.
4. What is the collective action problem? How might it be applied to the challenges of managing climate change? What are some of the political solutions to the collective action problem in the case of carbon dioxide emissions?
Collective action problem: describes the situation in which multiple individuals would all benefit from a certain action, but has an associated cost making it implausible that any individual can or will undertake and solve it alone. Public good: nonexcludable and nonrivalrous These attributes activate free rider problem Free riding as failing to limit own carbon dioxide emissions CO2 cuts as a public good: costly to exclude countries (and their citizens) from consuming once supplied Potential solutions Large actors provide public good on own International agreement to punish noncompliance Markets undersupply public goods, necessity of international agreement
7. What are the main components of the Paris Climate Accord? How should it operate to limit the growth of carbon dioxide emissions?
Components Goal to limit temperature increases to less than 2 degrees Celsius, hope to change this to 1.5 Binding process for monitoring and reporting pledges on emissions targets and progress Plans made public every 5 years. Each plan needs to be stronger than previous. Foreign aid to developing countries to ease costs of alternative energies
7. What is interstate cooperation? What are some of the primary impediments state face when trying to reach cooperative settlements with each other?
Cooperation between states and they face hurdles of transaction costs, collective action problem, and enforcement.
8. Which group of countries will be the recipients of foreign aid under the Paris Climate Accord? How did this aid help facilitate the construction of this international agreement? And how might this aid help countries fulfill their emission targets?
Developing countries receive foreign aid and this eases cost of alternative energies and compensate for costs of climate change. This is bc developed countries are initially responsible and willing to pay money to the developing world to compensate.
5. What are the three different distributional struggles related to the problem of climate change?
Distributional struggle within countries Coal versus solar; Oil versus general public Distributional struggle among countries Developed (US and Europe) versus Developing (BRIC: Brazil, China, India, Russia) Variation in carbon emissions across countries means different levels of preparedness for changes US: carbon consumption in electricity, transportation, industry Europe: less in transportation Industry (and carbon emissions) shifting to developing world; caps would impede their growth Distributional conflict across generations
6. Why did the United States launch a trade war against China in 2018?
Due to China's economic rise and potential shift in global distribution of power, China's state managed capitalism and less gov support for US firms, and a reorientation of FP with Trump. Grand Strategy of AM First, trade deficit, and demands.
INN@UT #5: US Policy in the Taiwan Strait 1. Describe some of the sources of political conflict in the contemporary US-China relationship?
Dynamism in distribution of power, differing values on regime type and ideology, human rights, political rights in Hong Kong, Trump trade war, COVID, US political and military interference, Taiwan and South China Sea, and Information security & cyberwarfare.
13. According to the Baker reading, what are the economic and national security benefits of ambitious U.S. leadership in combatting climate change? What are the four pillars of the Baker-Schultz plan to reduce carbon emissions?
Economic benefits are that clean energy is cost effective and would not damage the country, climate saving tech could bring revolutionary economic efficiencies, and action will only aid the bottom line due to the rising costs of climate change. National security wise climate change poses threats of flooding, water scarcity and combatting it will lessen those threats. Also winner of the clean energy race will determine international balance of power and set rules for clean energy economy. Pillars: - Economy-wide, revenue-neutral carbon fee. This would cost less than subsidies and regulations - Revenue from carbon fee returned to American citizens as dividends. A family of four would receive approximately $2000 per year - Carbon pricing would replace many environmental regulations - Carbon tariff would be applied to energy-intensive imports to level playing field
1. What is democracy? Describe Robert Dahl's three "procedural minimal" conditions of democracy.
Form of gov by the people where they decide in free and fair elections their leaders. -Political contestation: requires multiple parties competing and right of citizens to freely express themselves, civil liberties prop up political contestation -inclusion: All groups must be able to vote -democratic sovereignty: must result in powerful legislative and executive bodies such as chief executives.
9. What are the Cold War origins of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? What did Lord Ismay mean when he said the goal of NATO was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down"?
Formed in order to protect Europe from the Soviet threat, as a binding mechanism for American military power, peace between democratic powers in Europe Russians out: American lead containment during the most vital year, provided security against the threat of Soviet threat. NATO is a binding mechanism for American power, by making an American hegemon leader, the US provided essential goods like military might. Restrained US power by forcing multilateralism. Maintained peace by integrating Germany and changing expectations of neighbors for more peace.
8. According to the Krasner reading, what are the two main tendencies within US foreign policy regarding democracy promotion and dealing with authoritarian regimes? What third option does Krasner propose in how the U.S. should deal with long-standing dictatorships?
Full on democratization like Bush or hands off approach of Trump and Obama. He argues that US should ensure good enough governance, greater security, economic growth, and better provision of services. US should not try to democratize authoritarian regimes and instead identify good leaders and provide assistance to improve quality of life.
4. What is the GATT? What is the WTO? How does these organizations differ? What are some of the norms, principles, and rules associated with the GATT and WTO? How does the dispute settlement mechanism in the WTO support international trade?
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, multilateral IO designed to support reduction of trade barriers on reciprocal basis. WTO is World Trade Organization and it has the same mission. They differ in that WTO institutionalized a dispute settlement mechanism and it can ensure states uphold existing trade concession that were negotiated.
Course Module 20: Finance and US Foreign Policy 1. What does globalization in financial terms look like?
Globalization connects global markets. It generates economic growth, can reverberate recessions, and fosters peace between states. It connects markets through imports and exports of capital.
12. How might a future President Biden reverse President Trump's decisions on the Paris climate accord? Why would other countries potentially question the stability of the U.S. commitment to the agreement of a Democratic president reenters the Paris accord?
He could rejoin it via EO and take regulatory action to keep up with our commitments Nevertheless others would be skeptical as it is always plausible that a Republican president could come 4-8 years later and undo all the actions.
What are institutions? What is the difference between institutions and organizations? What are some examples of institutions in domestic and international politics?
Institution: Rules of the game: humanly devised constraints that structure incentives and interaction. Domestic institution: don't speed, don't steal, win majority of electoral votes to become President. International institution: sovereignty, chemical weapons taboo Organization: Political actors in the international system --Possess agency and pursue political objectives and with incentives to drive behavior (e.g. UN. NATO. WTO)
5. What is the International Monetary Fund? What are its main functions? What is the main source of its influence in the international economy? What is conditionality and how does the IMF use it to promote economic reforms within countries? Why does the U.S. have so much influence within the IMF?
It acts like a bank and is an overseas pool of capital created by member countries. It aims to limit exchange rate fluctuations and act as a lender of last resort. Its main source of influence is that it is the only entity willing to lend when no one else is. Conditionality is the term used to describe the conditions demanded by the IMF that supposedly enhance a country's long term ability to pay back the loan. This usually leads to tax raises, spending cuts, and a reduction in trade barriers. The US has a lot of influence because voting power correlates with the amount of money put into the fund. US is the biggest shareholder and therefore holds lots of influence and can relax conditions for other countries.
5. How and why has Democracy Promotion been a more or less important element within U.S. foreign policy over the years?
It has been a part of Wilson's FP, part of Cold war, part of ending of Cold War, and also after the Cold War.
8. What do the Fed's actions say about the costs and benefits of American hegemony/leadership in the global economy?
It shows the immense that power that comes with being the world's hegemon and that the world is not free riding off of the US. The global demand for dollars helps Congress to run massive deficits and Fed to print trillions of dollars.
INN@UT #6: US-Israeli Relations and the Iran Nuclear Accord 1. Describe some of the important details associated with the recent Israeli attack against Natanz. What facilities were targeted and why? What is "mowing the lawn?"
It was a successful attack on an Iranian centrifuge to slow Iranian capability to develop nukes. It was intended to send a signal to Iran and US about Israeli capability and intent.
2. Describe the main elements of international economic cooperation. Why is political cooperation between states on international economic affairs difficult to achieve?
Joint reduction in trade barriers along with foreign aid and emergency lending. Additionally countries can coordinate monetary policy to stabilize exchange rates. It is difficult to achieve because of the problem of contracting over time, monitoring compliance, uncertainty about political interests of other states, and distributional hurdles (which side is getting better deal).
4. What are some critiques of the democratic peace theory?
States undergoing transitions to democracy experience more conflict and that the common enemy of the USSR explains Western European peace and Great power settlements, not democracy, explain post WWII peace.
3. Describe the contemporary political status of Taiwan. What are the main political parties in Taiwan? And what are their respective interests relative to Taiwan's political position in the international system?
Taiwan faces pressure to declare full independence by domestic forces and currently the pro independence parties rule in Taiwan. KMT supports closer ties with China and DPP supports independence, center left.
6. What emergency actions did the Federal Reserve undertake to help prevent a broader global financial crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic?
The Federal Funds Rate dropped to near 0, multiple rounds of quantitative easing, direct lending to large corporations, indirect lending to small/medium size businesses, lending dollars to foreign actors that hold/post US treasury bonds as collateral.
6. What is the Paris climate accord? How might it operate to reduce carbon emissions and limit the increase of average temperatures? How did it navigate the tension between developed and developing countries?
The Paris climate accord is a multilateral agreement among 190+ countries to limit the increase in global temperature increases to 2 degrees celsius from pre-Industrial Revolution levels. Each nation sets its own goals and publicly states policies as a way of binding them to reaching their targets $100 billion in "climate finance" to help developing countries fund higher cost of using cleaner energy
5. Describe some of the attributes of a two-level game in the US-Iranian relationship that is shaping their ability to reach a revised nuclear accord.
The US withdrawal and elections raises domestic costs in Iran to cooperation, the shifting US FP activates a commitment problem, and Israel is exploiting the strategic challenge by undermining diplomacy by interfering in domestic politics of US and aggravating Iran.
How have nuclear weapons influenced US foreign policy since 1945?
The development of nuclear weapons changed US foreign policy since 1945 by originally wanting to develop (the best) nuclear weapons and then transitioning to a foreign policy strategy of preventing the development and proliferation of nuclear weapons in other states. The US also tries to prevent another nuclear attack. A state's ability to rely on defensive maneuvers to protect its territory and people dropped dramatically with nuclear armed missiles • Sheer destructiveness- capacity to destroy cities, economies, and states • Development of nuclear weapons have changed the challenges associated with protecting a civilian population from external threats
5. What are US interests relative to Taiwan? Describe the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity relative to Taiwan. What are some of pros and cons associated with changing this policy that have been discussed in the United States since last year?
US acts with strategic ambiguity because we want to deter China but also want to restrain Taiwan from rash action. Traditionally we have wanted to keep peace, both sides should refrain from altering status quo, and final political status of Taiwan should be determined via negotiations. Pros are that China will be deterred and democracy promotion will be furthered but cons are that potential war could be waged and tensions could spiral out of control.
2. What are some of the most prominent differences in the US and Israeli approaches/policies to prevent Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons?
US believes in diplomacy while Israel believes in force even though we agree primarily on policy goals. This is due to the commitment problem.
How does U.S. membership in international organizations like the UN, NATO, and WTO demonstrate the ability of international institutions to solve a fundamental problem of international politics - to create and preserve coercive power and, at the same time, constrain that same power?
US gives legitimacy to the UN and the UN gives legitimacy both at home and abroad. It supports the idea of surrendering sovereignty for the greater good. It solves the issue by facilitating cooperation at the expense of sovereignty.
Course Module 23: International Immigration 1. What are the main differences between voluntary and forced migration?
Voluntary: -Someone who moves to another country for personal gain such as higher wages, improved professional opportunities, or closer proximity to family and social networks Forced: -Migrants who leave their countries to escape war, repression, or natural disasters -Trump & Session's definition of forced migration: >Must be threatened or repressed by state authorities, dangers from non-state actors are not acceptable.
5. How can global capital markets discipline or influence the economic policy of governments?
When foreign capital holders lose confidence in a government's monetary policy, they tend to sell assets denominated in that currency a. Raises government's borrowing costs b. Limiting discretion of elected officials and forcing them to push their economy into recession to reassure creditors
Understand, explain, and give examples of how international institutions shape international politics through the following mechanisms: a) guiding behavior and shaping expectations; b) providing information about state interests and incentives to comply; c) allocating and generating power for states.
a) Guiding behavior and shaping expectations Institutions have rules that guide interactions among states Examples: -Sovereignty as legal recognition (by other states) of a governments right to regulate people living within its boundaries (should not violate the territory of other countries) (foster expectation of noninterference in others' domestic politics) -trade liberalization: GATT rules grants access to foreign companies access to domestic market, countries expected to lower tariffs Enforcement capacity- Ability to punish a state if the state breaks a rule. Organizations rarely get power over states, UN has to delegate enforcement to states. b) Providing information about state interests and incentives to comply -Helps reduce uncertainty about future behavior which helps foster cooperation -Decision itself to join often domestically costly because requires concessions -Demonstrates commitment to pursue line of policies -Examples: (China entry into WTO, used to have restrictions to its multinational market, sought entry because it allowed its firms to face lower barriers for the manufacturers. ) (Weapons inspectors: check for compliance, UN is a neutral party so it helps to foster trust) (Showed willingness to live within the set world) c) Allocating and generating power for states -Independently powerful -Gives judges the capacity to establish new precedents, which harms the legislative body -Create new international law (Judicial activism at WTO) -Set agenda in favor of some -veto power of UN Security Council (US) helps to keep recognition of Palestine off agenda -Ikenberry says we should actively participate in IO because it is a way to lock in policies, ideas and regulations that will benefit the US -Lock-in existing power of arrangements -P5 on UN Sec. Council (US, Russia, China, UK, and France) function of post-WWII settlement; no Germany, Brazil, Japan, India
5. How do trade and globalization shape political relations and order in the international system?
a. Causes political tensions b. Fight over becoming a top economic super power c. Can cause international organizations to maintain economic stability
2. What is the Ricardian model of trade? Describe the processes by which it suggests that trade and specialization can increase aggregate national income.
a. If governments want to increase national wealth, his theory implies that they should do all they can to eliminate barriers to trade like tariffs b. Countries engage in international trade even when one country's workers are more efficient at producing every single good than workers in other countries.
4. What are the domestic distributional consequences of globalization? Which groups win and lose from globalization inside the United States?
a. International trade helps to create jobs in sectors that rely disproportionately on resources (factor endowments) that US possesses in abundance b. Fuels job creation in industries that need high skilled labor (financial, high-tech) but hurts manufacturing
1. According to the reading, what are the chief indicators of the increase of globalization since World War II? What is comparative advantage and how does it contribute to aggregate economic gains for states from trade? How does trade contribute to the economic sources of order in the international system?
a. The most recent round of globalization has been supported by technological developments associated with the internet that have made it possible to trade services. b. Growth of imports and exports c. The growing movement of people through immigration also indicates the integration of labor markets d. Barriers to international commerce erode e. Volume of economic transactions increase; f. International trade has led to an increase in economic activity Comparative advantage is the when the gains from trade stem from differences in the relative efficiency of individuals, firms, or whole economies in the production of some mix of goods Trade does so by a. Specialization and international trade increases a state's national income b. The desire to get economic gains from trade leads to cooperative international agreements; c. Heightened economic competition activates economic and political backlash that tries to limit market pressures and reassert control over economic outcome.
7. What are some of the important stages in this trade war between China and the United States?
a. Trump imposed new tariffs on steel and aluminum (didn't exempt China). China retaliated. b. Trump threatens to impose 25% tariffs on up to 1300 Chinese products (machinery, mechanical appliances, electrical equipment) c. China targeting sectors that are important to Trump's political base
