GOVT-315 Final
Taglines
-"Fair and Balanced" -Fox -"Most trusted name in news" -CNN
Incumbency advantages
-Name recognition ----Most people do not know the name of the incumbent, much less the name of the challenger -Legislative record -Franking rule ----Allowed to mail things to their constituents at no cost ------Originally meant as a way to keep constituents informed -Casework ----Helping solve problems that constituents have -Homestyle ----People tend to like their representatives, but Congress itself on a macrolevel is not popular -Pork barreling ----Use of earmarks to bring jobs and infrastructure to one's district -Far easier for them to fundraise -Connections -Party backing ----Less likely to be primaried -More likely to face weak challengers ----Largely due the incumbency advantage ------Irrational decision to run -Vanishing marginals ----Districts are becoming less competitive ----This is due to: ------Social sorting ------Gerrymandering
Types of Political Knowledge
-Civics knowledge -Current events knowledge -Policy knowledge --Which parties stands for what? ---This question is especially important because the parties act as ques/shortcuts/heuristics
Events that garner attention pre-election
-Conventions ----Provide boost -Debates ----Does not have much impact. A couple of reasons why: -------Candidates talk past each other ------Usually only hyper-partisans tune into the debate ------In primaries debates can have a negative impact ------Bad moments and gaffes especially ------Debates have become more shows --------Candidates go for clips and sound bites -Speeches ----Important in terms of where the speeches and rallies are taking place
Predictors of unconventional participation
-Deep passion about specific issues -Opportunities and social networks -Environment
501(c) groups
-Do not have to report to the FEC --Non-profit interest groups -Tend to be religious and educationally focused -Not explicitly politically focused -->50% cannot be political
Social media news
-Echo chambers -Algorithms -Affective polarization -Less likely to be exposed to views and people of the other side
Technology changes
-Expansion of channels and cable news -The internet
Enron scandal
-Filed for bankruptcy and was a company that people thought was doing really well -By making strategic campaign donations, they were essentially able to operate without government oversight
History of the Presidential nominating process
-GW: relative unity on unity on appointing GW -Post-GW-early 1830s: "King Caucus." -1831: National Conventions -1832: President Jackson encourages the Democratic Party to host a convention; Whigs follow suit in 1840s; Still party elders deciding the nominees -1840s-Forward: "Smoke filled rooms" -1912-1968: parties implement primaries -1968: Chaos because of Civil Rights and Vietnam; splintering in the Democratic Party leads to McGovern-Fraser Commision from 1971-1972.
Who doesn't hold political opinions?
-Non-voters -Less politically interested -Less politically knowledgeable -Less educational attainment -Lower income
History of voter turnout in the U.S.
-Historically, the United States has stood out as being less voter friendly than many Western democracies -Registering is much easier today than it was in the past, when people had to travel to the county seat to register, but this added step increases the costs of voting. -Turnout was higher in the 1800s because of growing one party domination geographically, electoral reforms (such as secret "Australian" ballots), and discrimination against African Americans
History of the U.S. Press
-In a way, the history of the US is sort of full circle -Early partisan newspapers practiced narrowcasting -But then the news slowly escaped geographic restrictions and technology changed -Broadcasting emerged around early 20th century (radio and then television) -Around the turn of the 21st century narrowcasting re-emerges to capture a bigger slice of the people
Who benefits from the status quo of campaign finance rules?
-Incumbents -Republicans benefit more from Super PAC but this gap is closing
Super PACs
-Independent expenditures -No direct contributions -Receive unlimited donations -Cannot be officially coordinated with a campaign
Two exceptions to determining outcomes of elections
-Independents -Who is mobilized
Political violence trends in the United States
-Is it becoming more common? --Slightly up particularly amongst strong partisans -Hate crimes --Are up -Why? --Increased moralization of politics --Social and geographic sorting ----Leading to affective polarization
Fairness Doctrine and its elimination
-It stated that news organizations have to present "both sides" -FCC policy- not law- 1986
Size of Government Preferences
-Left want big government; change of the status quo -Right want small government; preservation of status quo
Public opinion and relationship with the mass media in the US
-Less than 20% of the public have a lot of trust in the media --80% say media favors one side politically ----90% of Republicans feel this way ----70% of Democrats feel this way
Risks of unconventional participation
-Life and limbs -Social disapproval -Arrest
Professionalization
-Many states do not make enough money for it to be their full-time jobs --CA pays more money than others ----Has staffs -Some states people do not have large staffs, see AZ -Each state varies in level of professionalization and how much effort is put into job. --Part-time job versus full-time job
Measuring political violence and propensity towards political violence
-Mason + Kalmoe (find that 3-9% of people willing to resort to political violence) vs Westwood, Grimmer, Tyler and Nall (feel that Mason and Kalmoe have overstated their statistic and by discussing it raises tensions and makes it more palatable to the American public -More social undesirability bias is big with political violence
Political violence
-Mason + Kalmoe (find that 3-9% of people willing to resort to political violence) vs Westwood, Grimmer, Tyler and Nall (feel that Mason and Kalmoe have overstated their statistic and by discussing it raises tensions and makes it more palatable to the American public -Short of violence, boycotts
Current Partisan leaning by gender
-Men are voting more Republican -Women lean more Democratic
Citizens United v. FEC
-Money=speech -5-4 decision
Ideological makeup of U.S.
-More people identify as conservative rather than liberal --People have different meanings for each word --Republicans have a more consistent voter base in conservatives; whereas Dems are more fragmented -People may hold conservative values, but are operationally/policy-wise liberal
Sense of injustice
The sense awakened in majority members about their treatment of minority and low power group members; it requires the majority group members to become aware of their ideologies, question the ideologies, and decide that the ideologies are no longer legitimate
Partisanship
The sense of attachment or belonging that an individual feels for a political party. It has become increasingly more indicative of who we will vote for
Boycotts
The step below political violence is boycotts
Political Science
The study of power relations
Epistemic Hubris
The tendency to express greater certainty regarding policy-related factual disputes than the evidence actually warrants.
Ted Gurr and Relative Deprivation Theory
The theory proposes that people become agitated when there is a discrepancy between what they perceive they ought to have and what they actually have
Paradox of local politics
These elections have the greatest impact on our day-to-day lives -Visibility? --Low -On or off cycle? --Off cycle -Competition level? --Often unopposed seats, uncompetitive -$? --Less money involved
Experiences
Things that have happened in a person's life, which help shape one's values and premises
Going negative
-Not incumbents unless: --Behind --Getting attacked by challenger -Boomerang effect -Primary vs General --Less effective in primaries --Boomerang effect could be worse in primary -Personal vs Political --Attacking which -Negative more memorable but not necessarily more persuasive -Negative ads decrease turnout
What does campaign money buy and what does it not?
-Not necessarily victory -But it does buy professional campaign staff, who pull, fundraise, research, travel, call, canvas, event plan -For US Senate campaigns 40% of money goes to ads -For Presidential campaigns 70% of money goes to ads -Money also helps keep people in primary elections -The ability to raise $ often impacts someone's decision to run or not run in the first place
Debates
-Not very persuasive -People who watch debates are usually hyper-partisan
Local mayoral elections
-Often off-cycle --Even high profile mayoral
Protests
-Only a small portion of US -Not representative --Younger people --Higher educational attainment --More politically interested --More left-leaning ideologically --People who live in more urban areas --Why progressives disproportionally? ----Ideology ----Identity ----More willing to go against traditional power structures
What did the McGovern-Fraser Commission recommend?
-Open party procedures -More representative delegates- quotas -Many of the states switch from caucuses to primaries -Primaries become source of delegate selection. As a result, primary elections become binding. Though not all states have laws binding them. -Republicans follow suit
Visions of Authority
-Parenting versus God -View on role of govt as nurturer or punisher/disciplinarian
Name recognition effects
-Partisans willing to break lines are often doing so to vote for the incumbent -High visibility in Senate races weakens incumbency
Affective (Social) Polarization
-Passionate about party -Activist -Emotionally tied to party -Dislike and distrust for the other party -Bias towards your party -Anger for the other side It is the type of polarization that is rising the most
Other motivators of turnout
-Political knowledge -Political interest -Partisanship ideology -Feelings of civic duty -Social pressure -Nature or nurture --60 to 40 -Campaigns --How? ----GOTV effects ---- Door-to-door canvassing ---- Microtargeting
Framing
-Portrayal --Similar terms to framing: Interpretation, manipulation, distortion, spin
National coalitions
-Presidential coattails -Surge and decline cycles -Turnout
Determinants of vote choice
-Probability that the voter will have an impact --It is about the perception of their vote mattering. ----Hence the 7-11% higher turnout in swing states. -the benefits of your candidate or party winning -Cost of voting --Examples include lost wages and needing a babysitter -Sense of civic duty --This includes feeling good for voting and democratic satisfaction
What dimensions enable a liberal democratic republic to function properly?
-Public trust and support -Engaged, enlightened, and representative republic -Accountability mechanisms for office holders -Equal access to the ballot box -Meaningful organized competition -Fair rules for converting preferences into outcomes -Need a system that is maintained with the cons
Mode of consumption changes
-Radio is down -Newspaper is down -Cable tv is down (though a little up during the Trump years) -Podcasts are up -Social media is up ----Most people get their news from online news sources
Turnout in the U.S. vs other comparable democracies and why is this the case?
-Rationality (EC) --Does your vote matter? -Election Day (being on a Tuesday) -2 party systems -Multiparty -Registration --Non-voters -Infrastructure --Commutes -Mandatory voting --Fines or other punishments for not voting
Ballot initiatives and their effects
-Referenda --Policy on the ballot -Who takes part? --Citizens are engaged and interest groups get involved -How many per year? --165 per year or so ----This year? -----About 140 at the state level -----Exs. -------In Kentucky is the right to abortion -------Pot legalization in some places -------Ranked choice voting in NV -How on ballot? --Through state leg or getting enough signatures -Controversial Ballot --initiatives tend to be more controversial issues -$ --Lots of money ----In CA the online sports gambling initiative $384 million -Wording --Wording is intentionally confusing to increase turnout and get desired result -Cycle --When on the ballot effects the results -They increase voter turnout
Roles and responsibilities of the FEC
-Reporting and public disclosure ----Who has contributed? ----How the funds were used?
Current Partisan leaning by geography
-Rural Republican advantage -Urban Democrat advantage
What does a strong war chest often prevent?
-Scares off challengers -Its not associated with increased vote share, but is with increasing their chance of victory
Tajfel and Turner and Social Identity Theory
-Sense of group belonging can overcome free rider problem -Racial minority success in social movement organization --Sense of "linked fate" --Sense of injustice --Social networks
Key demographic predictors of turnout
-Socio-economic status --Highly predictive -Education attainment --predictive ----Social desirability so statistic may be skewed -Gender --Females are voting more --Male turnout has decreased a little -Race --White likely --African American likely --Asian increasingly more likely --Hispanic not as likely -Age --18-34 less likely to vote but participate in campaigns --Older people are more likely to vote -Movers --8%-10% less likely to vote -Religion --Church attendance more likely to vote the more you attend church -Voting laws -Mail-in voting
Television advertisments
-Some TV ads with hindsight bias can be seen as important and election changing Examples of famous ads: ----Dwight Eisenhower Ike ad ----LBJ- Daisy Girl ----Nixon- McGovern Defense Plan ----Reagan- Morning in America ----Bush Senior- Willy Horton ad against Michael Dukakis ----Clinton- Man from Hope ----W. Bush- Windsurfing ----Obama- Yes We Can advertisement -Candidate involvement in the ad creation varies -Ads can also backfire ----Negative ads depress voter turnout in general ----Negative ads reduce vote share for both candidates
Polling
-Survey -Gauge public opinion -Do not survey the whole population, takes samples from segments of the population
Downs' and then Riker and Ordeshooks' Voter turnout equation
-T= p (b) - c -T= p (b) - c + D --T= decision to turnout to vote --P=probability that the voter will have an impact --B= the benefits of your candidate or party winning --C= cost of voting --D= civic duty
Priming
-Talking about issues in specific ways --Puts them at the top of people's heads
527 Groups
-Tax-exempt groups that raise money for political activities --Examples include GOTV efforts and issue advocacy -Organizations tend to be created by Unions and College Dems and College Republicans. -Can be one issue focused --Examples of these groups: Act Blue and Emily's List
Public financing of presidential campaigns
-Tax-payers finance this fund ----Only about 7% of tax-payers chose to use the tax-write and donate some money to the fund -In order to accept this public financing you had to agree to caps on: ----How money you can spend in certain states ----How much money you can self-finance -Ross Perot started a trend for presidential candidates to not accept this funding ----Starting in 2012 none of the major parties have accepted money from this fund ------Likely also has to do with Citizens United
What are elections influenced by?
-Term limits? -Money -Special interests -Economic and political conditions (Ask about before class)
Ideological Right Umbrella
-Traditional conservatives -Cultural populists -Authoritarian
Ideological Left Umbrella
-Traditional liberals -Progressives -Economic populism -Woke wing
Horse race coverage and the media
-Usually based on polling -Gamified -Who benefits? ----Frontrunners and challengers who are close to taking the lead ----Doesn't benefit the lower rung candidates in a crowded field
Political satire/comedy
-Usually more on the Left, but growing on the right (mostly podcasts and YouTube channels) SNL Jimmy Kimmel
Who holds political opinions?
-Voters -Politically interested -Politically knowledgeable -Higher educational attainment -Higher income
Current Partisan leaning by socioeconomic status
-Wealthier voters lean Republicans --Though it is massively weakening -At a place where income is not a great predictor of voter lean
When can campaigns impact vote choice decisions?
-When one candidate has one unpopular opinion or stance, which is projected everywhere -Well before election day, but it decays -During primaries when no party cues/ids stick out
Current Partisan leaning by race
-White lean Republican -African American lean Democrat -Latino lean Democrat --Though it is weakening ---Cubans lean Republican -Asian lean Democrat
The Economy
-Who brings up the economy and when? When the economy is good, incumbents discuss the economy When the economy is bad, the challenging party discusses the economy -How do we discuss the economy? Inflation rate (namely the Consumer Price Index) Unemployment rate Both are inversely related, inflation up, unemployment down. GOP more worried about inflation, Dem about unemployment Voters focus more on national economy, not their own wallet
Current Partisan leaning by age
-Younger voters lean Democrat -Older voters strongly lean Republican --Evidence of generational cohorts
Albert Hirschman and the Exit, Voice, and Loyalty Dynamic
-basically quitting, consummately the economic option. The economic viewpoint is EXIT, if you don't like the product you switch -Voice option is that you don't exit, so when something is not going well you try to bring change through petition and protests -The likelihood of using voice increases with loyalty
Super Tuesday
A Tuesday in early March in which many presidential primaries, particularly in the South, are held. 1/3 of delegates awarded happen then
Normative Claims
A claim that asserts that such-and-such OUGHT to be the case. Ethical arguments
McGovern-Fraser Commission
A commission formed as a result of desire for a more fair and democratic electoral process after the 1968 Democratic Party primary.
Random digit dialing
A common method of randomizing poll sample to maximize accuracy. For example: 1-877-468-92xx Problems with this method: -Time consuming -Calling ID -Low response rate -Landlines --Leads to older people bias -Area codes do not necessarily mean people live in that area anymore
Partisan Realignments
A durable and significant shift in party coalitions, issue parties, and electoral geography
Direct Democracy
A form of government in which citizens rule directly and not through representatives. Most common form is with ballot initiatives. 27 states and DC have ballot initiatives
Elections
A formal and organized choice by vote of a person for a political office or other position
The parties
A group organized to nominate candidates, to try to win political power through elections, and to promote ideas about public policies
PACs
A legal entity formed by an organized group to help elect or defeat candidates -How much $ can a PAC raise? --$5k per person -How much $ can a PAC spend on a campaign? --$5k
Political Ideology
A normative coherent and ordered worldview of power relations and the proper exercise of authority in society
2 Party System
A political system dominated by two major parties
The Party Decides
A political theory that the party decides who the nominee will be by uniting behind a candidate. This idea was challenged by the 2016 Republican primary, but defenders of the theory note that the party did not unite behind a candidate.
Independents
A term used to describe people who have no party affiliation. Roughly 30% of US population identifies as independent. True independents are: -less politically interested -less politically knowledgeable -More male/younger
Linked fate
A theory of group identification that describes ways in which individuals tie their own life chances to those of a group
Incumbency Advantages
About 2/3 of incumbents win reelection. They are also Infrequently primaried which helps them in the general. However, the incumbency advantage might be slightly shrinking
Premises
Abstract descriptive beliefs about the way the world is. Examples- Life begins at conception
Importance of sequence
Allows candidates to pick up momentum depending on the state?
Europeans vs Americans on protest
Americans are more likely to protest
Soft money
Campaign contributions unregulated by federal or state law, usually given to parties and party committees to help fund general party activities.
Boomerang Effect
Can hurt the ad purveyor
Challengers advantage
Challengers may raise less money, but their money goes farther. That is, it is easier for them to "buy" voters. AKA it is cheaper for them to get votes.
Duverger's Law
Law of politics, formalized by Maurice Duverger, stating that plurality-rule electoral systems will tend to have two political parties
Potential Solutions to disinformation
Fact-checking information. But it has not generally been shown to work. People tend to bush back against fact-checking
Values
Left: -care/harm -justice/fairness Right: -Sanctity -In-group loyalty -Authority
Chances of Reform?
Low as it requires a constitutional amendment or a state pledge
Mail-in voting
Makes voting more accessible and in theory increases turnout
Communitarian view of democracy
Making decisions for the good of the whole community
Nationalization
Media growing to cover nation as a whole instead of a specific geographic area
Heuristics
Mental shortcuts or "rules of thumb" that often lead to a solution (but not always). In politics, it serves as indicators for elections among other things. For example, a candidate's party affiliation are a heuristic for their ideological positions.
Relationship between Party ID and Ideology
Party ID is formed early in life and is long lasting. Parties are largely ideologically sorted. Before one learns about parties: values are learned, parenting lessons, personality traits, genetics. However, party ID is generally formed for social rather than ideological reasons.
Outcomes
Party elites tend to shape the majority of partisan's belief. Also, the result of a string of events
Partisan Polarization
Party loyalty is increasing
Delegates
People chosen to vote for a party's nominee at the national convention
Liberal
People have civil liberties, political minorities have certain protections, the Bill of Rights
Geographic Advantage
People in states with smaller populations tend to have more impact with their votes.
Liberals
People on the left side of the political spectrum
Conservatives
People on the right side of the political spectrum
Mancur Olson and the collective action problem (Free rider problem)
People who benefit from the work of a group but do not participate in the social movement
Faithless Electors
People who do not vote with what their state decided. 33 states require electors to vote with their state chose. Not all of those 33 have criminal punishments. 2016 had some faithless electors
Chicken and egg problems
People who look like they are doing well get more coverage, money, etc. In turn, more coverage they do better
Libertarians
People who want less government all the time
Common views of democracy
Pluralistic, communitarian, and individualistic
Which view of democracy best represents the US today?
Pluralistic. Since the 1950s immense strengthening of partisanship. Growing tribalism. Does not necessarily matter which is best because campaigns take on different forms.
What are the consequences of elections?
Policy changes
Political knowledge in the U.S.?
Political knowledge in the US is shockingly low. It is unsophisticated, but maybe this is rational. Maybe people have more important things to focus on.
Political minorities and unconventional participation
Political minorities are more likely to partake in unconventional participation. This is because they are less likely to have ballot access
State and local elections
Set at a local level and do not necessarily coincide with a major election year. They are the elections that have the most impact on your daily life, but get the least out of attention usually.
Partisan makeup of the U.S.
Slight Democratic advantage for a while now (about 30 years). But GOP has 3-4 advantages that helps it remain competitive. -Geographic --Dispersed in a more geographically competitive manner in key states. -Gerrymandering -Turnout advantages --Republican voters are more likely to vote ---Turnout advantage is shrinking
How does social polarization impacts behavior?
Social polarization leads to more bias against the out-group and anger against the out-group
Redistricting
The redrawing of congressional and other legislative district lines following the census, to accommodate population shifts and keep districts as equal as possible in population.
Voter preferences vs voter actions
Voters say they want more bipartisanship in the abstract. But they want the other party to compromise with their side. Voters say they want term limits, but keep electing incumbents.
Issue Prioritization
What issues that people feel are important heading into the midterms. According to a Pew Research Study published in late August top issues are: -Economy -Gun policy -Violent crimes -Health care -Voting policies -Supreme Court appointments -Education -Abortion -Energy issues
Incumbency
already holding an office
Roger Ailes
an American television executive and media consultant; helped bring the rise of Fox News
Rupert Murdoch
an Australian-born American businessman, media proprietor, and investor; worked with Roger Ailes to bring the rise of Fox News
Winner-Take-All system
an election system in which the candidate with the most votes wins all the delegates.
Random Error
an error that occurs when the selected sample is an imperfect representation of the overall population
Personality
an individual's characteristic pattern of thinking, feeling, and acting, which also shape a person's values and premises.
Response Bias
anything in a survey design that influences responses
Canvassing
persuasion of voters in a political campaign. Usually involves going door to door
TV advertising
reach the most voters
Public Opinion
the distribution of the population's beliefs about politics and policy issues
Nature
the influence of our inherited characteristics on our personality, physical growth, intellectual growth, and social interactions
Decentralization
the news slowly escaped geographic restrictions and technology changed
Social Sorting
the sorting of people along partisan lines in different aspects of life such as jobs and where they live.
Party Platforms
the statement of policies of a national political party
Issue ownership
the tendency of one party to be seen as more competent in a specific policy area. Democrats: -Climate change -Healthcare Republicans: -Immigration -Foreign policy
Broadcasting
the transmission of radio waves or TV signals to a broad public audience
Objectivity
treating facts without influence from personal feelings or prejudices
Fragmentation
trend to increasing choice and consumption of a range of media for consumers
straight-line or straight-ticket voting
voting for one party straight down the ballot
Vote Choice
which candidates (if any) does a voter support on the ballot for a given election
Democratic
Rules are in place to prevent small groups from dominating majority will
Money in electoral politics
$ in politics has long been a concern
History of regulation of money in politics
-$ in politics has long been a concern -1867 Naval Appropriations Bill ----First act professor could find. Restricted people's ability to get donations from workers at naval yards' -Tilman Act of 1907 ----Bans corporations and interstate banks from contributing directly to federal candidates -Soon after in 1910 and 1911 Federal Disclosure Laws ----Members in the Senate and House have to report campaign funds ------Following that limits and disclosures on campaign expenditures were imposed too But... ------Lots of loopholes to get around this -----For example, members could claim they had no firsthand knowledge of the violation ------No regulatory agency at that time existed that was in charge of monitoring this, so it was under Congressional oversight -----Lack of enforcement and penalty mechanisms -1935 --Public Utilities Act No contributions from public utilities companies -1943 and 1947 --Laws target labor unions and their federal contributions -1974 --Watergate happens and violations of federal campaign finance laws were broken as well as targeting of political opponents. This leads to the creation of the FEC (Federal Elections Committee) -Buckley v Valeo (1976) --Supreme Court strikes down limits on an individual expenditures to own campaigns -Emergence of "soft money" 1980s to 2002 --Concerned citizens start raising red flags in the late 1990s and early 2000s -2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) (McCain-Feingold Act) --Banned soft money contributions --Regulated and restricted issue advocacy advertisements ----Survives initial SC challenge ------But later altered by SC decisions in 2007 and 2010 -------2010 Citizens United v. FEC Money= speech 5-4 decision
State election law differences
--Exs ----NY Governor you have to live in the state for 5 years and be at least 30 ----WI Gov need to 18 and live in state for 18 days -For candidates and voters: --Not all rules are just a function of being a Red or Blue state
Independent Leaners
-10% of independent leaners lean Dem. -10% of independent leaners lean Rep. The independent leaners actually behave more partisan than weak R/D
History of Party Eras
-1789-1812: Federalists vs. Democratic-Republicans -1828-1856: Democrats versus Whigs -1856-1900 Republican vs Democrats --During the election in 1860, parties become regionalized ---Republicans the party of the North ---Dems party of the South -Early 1900s Republicans vs Democrats -1932 Democrats vs Republicans --Great Depression ---Democrats dominate elections until 1970s. Not just presidencies, but also Congressional elections. Thanks in part to New Deal Coalition -1968-1972 Conflict in the Democratic Party. Civil Rights, Vietnam War, Roe v. Wade. --Issues with evangelical voters, who switch to Republicans. Increased role of religion --Leads to a geographic switch with Dems typically being the party of the North, Republicans of the South. -1980 Democrat versus Republicans --But with different voting coalitions.
History of Controversial Electoral College Elections
-1824: Andrew Jackson won the popular vote, but not EC. Because no one own the EC, election went to the House of Representatives. Each state delegation gets one vote. The corrupt bargain -1876: Hayes loses the popular vote, nobody wins the EC. Compromise of 1877 -1888 Benjamin loses popular vote but wins EC -2000 George W. Bush loses popular vote, but wins EC. 5-4 Supreme Court decision over hanging chads -2016 Trump loses the popular vote but wins EC
Party convention effects
-2-25% bump in the polls --Usually 10-12% -Effects are for national conventions, as state conventions do not have the same kind of effect
Different voting rules by states
-36 states have vote id laws -Some states allow for mail-in voting
State judicial elections
-39/50 states -Some are partisan, and others are non-partisan -Retention and non-retention --Some elections are about keeping them around or not ----Most are generally retained -Becoming more like legislative races --Especially in terms of fundraising ----For state supreme court, funding has tripled in last decade -Turnout --Voter turnout problems in these elections ----Usually pretty low -$ change --Has increased extensively --Fundraising has been found to impact votes -Interest group influence --Normative questions
Makeup of the FEC
-6 members --3 Reps, 3 Dems ----4 votes needed
What can campaigns do?
-Activate latent partisanship -Mobilize GOTV (get out the vote) -Enlighten voters
If you theoretically wanted to buy elections where should you spend?
-Ballot initiatives and referendums -Local elections -Primaries
2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (McCain-Feingold)
-Banned soft money contributions -Regulated and restricted issue advocacy advertisements -Survives initial SC challenge --But later altered by SC decisions in 2007 and 2010
What does campaign money predict for incumbents and challengers?
-Campaign money predicts for incumbents an increased chance of victory -For challengers' money is correlated with voting --But why maybe not crucial? -----Questions of winnability ----People who donate money for influence want to donate to the person who are going to win
Outrage media
-Can be super successful -Can increase viewership -Not necessarily good at impacting party ID but can impact voter turnout -Can increase ideological extremity --Usually more on the right, see Fox News
Current Partisan leaning by religion
-Catholic lean D -Evangelical Christians lean R -Mainline Protestants relatively even, slightly lean D -Atheist lean D -Jewish lean D -Muslim lean D
Agenda setting
-Choosing: --what to cover --Who to have on ----Similar terms to agenda setting: Gatekeeping, filtering
Current Partisan leaning by culture
?
Ballot access rule differences
-easier to get on ballot in some states than other --Exs ----NY Governor you have to live in the state for 5 years and be at least 30 ----WI Gov need to 18 and live in state for 18 days -For candidates and voters: --Not all rules are just a function of being a Red or Blue state
Ideological or Unideological Nature of the Public
30% to 40% of the public is even ideological. But the American public is becoming less and less ideological innocent, as the parties have become more sorted and it has become easier to be ideological.
Political Party
An apparatus for organizing interests in the pursuit of power/winning
proportional representation
An election system in which the candidate gets the percentage of delegates equal to their vote. I.e. 30% of the vote means 30% of the delegates.
Other media bias
Ansolabehere et al 2006 --Newspapers have flipped from endorsing Rs to Ds Ho and Quinn 2008 --Newspapers are quite centrist relative to Supreme Court Opinions Puglisit and Snyder 2015 --Newspapers were centrist on ballot initiatives Butler and Schofield 2010 --Newspapers were more likely to publish McCain letters to the Editors than Obama ones during the 2008 election Groseclase and Milyo 2005 --Substantial Liberal Bias ----Incredibly controversial ------Lots of research critiquing their findings Puglisit 2011 --NYT- But LA Times - Fox News Lott and Haslett 2014 --Pro-liberal bias on tone for economic indicators/conditions Gerber et al. 2009 --Found people's subscriptions did impact vote choice WaPo and WaTi Knight and Chiang 2011 --Endorsements only have an impact if they are surprising Kahn and Kenney 2002 --Endorsements have an impact on how newspapers report on the candidates they have endorsed/the rhetoric they use Filtering vs Distortion Filtering is more common than distortion and may be more impactful --But Hassell 2020 questions how much agenda setting is going on --The early studies were mixed on whether the media is biased especially in the 90s --Results now show more bias but are still mixed
Open Primaries
Anyone can vote -Members of the other party can vote for the candidate they to see on the ballot. --Either the extremists they think they can beat in the general --Or scared of the extremists and do not want them to make it to the general election
Tillman Act of 1907
Bans corporations and interstate banks from contributing directly to federal candidates
Media bias
Biased towards: -$ clicks -Sensational -Violence -Negativity -Drugs -Scandal -Malcompetence/maleficence -It is also biased towards the 2 party system and disloyal partisans
Party Conventions
Boost enthusiasm for the party
How can affective partisanship be reduced?
By priming national identity
Pluralistic view of democracy
Competing groups vying for power
Compromise of 1877
Compromise that enables Hayes to take office in return for the end of Reconstruction
Caucuses
Consequences: -Costly= --Time consuming --Opportunity costs -People that do participate are more likely to be politically active --Different voting population -More susceptible to peer pressure Strategies: -People who go are more likely to be committed to their believes -Likely to align with party more
Why is the idea of populism important?
Democracy rests on the belief that the masses are capable of making political decisions rather than elites
Contemporary Party Era
Democrats versus Republicans
Post-election normative considerations of campaign donations
Does $ curry political favor? -Research has found that donations are not correlated with specific role call votes. But politicians tend to join committees that relate to organizations, groups, and people who donate to them MCs quality of work -Senators spend 2/3 of the last two years of their term raising money 1 person, 1 vote -Democratic Equality Principles If speech=money than people do not have equal political voice. --This is largely due to income inequality
Mail advertising
Dying
Radio Advertising
Dying
Partisan Asymmetry in delegate delegation
Each party has its own rules for primaries. -Democrats use superdelegates and have proportional representation in most states (30% of the vote means 30% of the delegates). There are minimum thresholds to qualify for PR. Super delegates are usually party elites and unpledged. In 2016, Clinton got over 500 and Sanders got less than 30. After the 2016 election, super delegates cannot vote until the 2nd round of the convention. -Winner-Take-All system is used in some states by Republicans. 8 true states use this. 12 have trigger rules that make it a WTA election, meaning that if certain election requirements are met then it becomes a WTA election. The rules vary by state elections laws and party rules. Texas is one example.
Ideological Issue Dimensions
Economic cultural foreign policy -Militarism/Pacifism -Internationalism/ Isolationism
Populists
Economic populism -Radical economic changes Cultural populism -Intellectuals, Political --Usually more nationalist
Potential Solutions to epistemic hubris
Education, but it might actually make epistemic hubris worse
When is lack of turnout normatively concerning and when might it not be?
Elections are meant to represent the will of the people. It is concerning when... -When it is not representative of the will of the majority -Leads to more extreme candidates as more politically engaged people are the only ones who are voting It is not concerning when... -who do not vote are represented by those who do
Presidential elections
Elections held in years when the president is on the ballot. Each party chooses a candidate through primary elections. And then the nation votes to elect one of the candidates.
FEC
Federal Election Commission; created in response to Watergate scandal
pork barrel
Federal projects, grants, and contracts available to state and local governments, businesses, colleges, and other institutions in a congressional district.
Big 5 - "O.C.E.A.N" of traits
Five Basic traits (Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism) which can be used to describe a person's unique personality
Republic
Form of government that the people elect representatives
Potential mechanisms behind media bias
Framing, priming, agenda setting
Importance of media coverage
Free media means candidates can spend money elsewhere. TV coverage helps raise the profile of the candidate
The values on which democracy rests on what 2 basic principles?
Freedom and equality. -Humans ought to be as free as possible. -Humans have intrinsic equal moral worth and they have right by virtue of their humanity
Party Issue Ownership
GOP: Crime, military, moral values, foreign policy Dem: Civil rights, childcare, healthcare, education
Microtargeting
Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them
Cultural Polarization
Geographical divide increasing -Rural/urban Job divide increasing
Campaign Routes
Have to emphasize states that can impact the election, i.e swing states?
Campaigns' GOTV efforts
Help increase voter turnout
Origins of Ideology
Historical breakdown of self-identification for ideology -1990 43% conservative 17% liberal -2020 36% conservative 25% liberal --Statistic has bias and may not be good for two reasons: ---Terms have loaded meaning ---Americans tend to be symbolically conservative
Normative Concerns
How should we optimally make a decision?
Single issue voters
In 1982 8-10% on abortion and 5-7% on race. up to 22% on abortion and up to 27% on race now
Semi-Closed Primaries
In semi-closed primaries, voters still have to affiliate with a party before they can vote. But, unlike a truly closed primary system, voters do not have to officially affiliate with a party until they vote.
Differences in state laws
In some states felons can vote and others cannot. Some states make it harder to register
State of the Economy
Indicators: -GDP -Unemployment rate -Inflation rate
Individualistic view of democracy
Individuals act in their own rational self-interest. Two examples are patronage and casework
Ideological Polarization
Issue extremity increasing
Potential normative concerns about judicial elections and partisan judicial elections
It brings politics into the judiciary and opens the door to interest group influences.
Dangers of Faction
It can divide the country further, increasing polarization
Presidential Approval
It drops down during midterms and then increases again. It looks bell curves connected together.
Consequences of Electoral College
It impacts where candidates campaign, as they have to focus on swing states. Some examples of swing states are PA, FL, WI, MI, and OH
The Electoral College
It is a general election method of choosing a president. A body of people representing the states of the US, who formally cast votes for the election of the president and vice president.
Political interest in the U.S.
It is also low but it is on the rise. There is an increase in voter turnout.
Measuring unconventional participation
It is difficult because of social undesirability bias
Retrospective Voting
It is when a voter makes a decision based off of current conditions rather than past conditions. --Like if the economy is worse off they might vote for someone else ----Punishes/rewards the incumbent for current conditions
How has it been mistakenly measured in the past?
It used the voting age population instead of voting eligible population. The VAP includes anyone of age- including ineligible voters-, felons, and residents who are not citizens. If you use the VAP it discounts VTR by 2%-6%
What does the Fairness Doctrine and its elimination lead to?
Its elimination led to the rise of conservative talk radio -Journalist views on this ----Not uniformly behind the idea of the Fairness Doctrine -----Nowadays must are against having to present both sides
Rationality
Journalism became more objective because it became more rational for news companies to try to reach more people --The electorate became more informed Around the turn of the 21st century narrowcasting re-emerges to capture a bigger slice of the people --Rewards compensation bias
Who are journalists?
Journalists to be more liberal and independent. (4 liberals to 1 conservative) (only 7% of journalists are self-identified Republicans
Current Partisan leaning by sexuality
LGBTQ+ lean D
Ignorance
Lack of knowledge, and not likely to be vocal about issues
Campaign Effects
Minimal effects on vote CHOICE. People focus on fundamentals. By Labor Day polls are fairly accurate because party fundamentals have set in
Importance of momentum
Momentum boosts the candidate and usually means an increased media coverage and donations.
Importance of funding
Money buys ads, helps raise awareness about candidates
Rush Limbaugh
Most influential talk radio personality and conservative political commentator; 80s: launched his politically oriented talk show; '87: FCC repealed Fairness Doctrine, could focus on his one-sided politics
How do individuals respond to political knowledge and issue questions?
Most people do not have organized, stable, and coherent ideology. So, in order to form issue opinions, people align with partisan leadership models and most easily accessible information.
front-loading
Moving statewide nominating contests earlier in the calendar to increase their influence
Voter ID laws
Need ID to vote, limits who votes Pros: -Most other comparable democracies 67% ----94% R ---- 71% I ---- 45% D Cons: -Voter fraud is rare -Disadvantaged groups less likely to possess IDs -Effects often negligible
Supply side vs Demand side bias
News organizations need to the appeal to people but the demand is biased too (ask about before test)
State press in the U.S.?
No -Just: --CSPAN --NPR --PBS
Public Utilities Holding Act
No contributions from public utilities companies
Term limits
No federal term limits. And states cannot enact laws that are more stringent than the federal laws for candidates running for federal office
Partisan vs non-partisan elections
Non-partisan elections impact heuristics
Ideological media bias
One's ideological preference influences what they choose to get their information from
Closed Primaries
Only party members can vote -Closed primaries tend to produce more ideologically extreme candidates -Independents can't vote
Critical (Elections) Junctures
Opportunities to get off the path dependency that establishes parties of those eras. They mark major party realignments. Generational blocs that are more likely to vote one way or another. As these generational cohorts die, new opportunities are created to change power
Who are editors and owners?
Owners are disproportionally right leaning
The Big Sort
Parties have become ideologically sorted
Presidential administrations and the media
Presidential administrations tend to feel that the media is biased against them especially starting with Nixon
Gerrymandering
Process of redrawing legislative boundaries for the purpose of benefiting the party in power.
Common normative arguments for and against Voter ID laws
Pros: -Most other comparable democracies 67% ----94% R ---- 71% I ---- 45% D -In theory makes elections more secure Cons: -Voter fraud is rare -Disadvantaged groups less likely to possess IDs -Effects often negligible
Unconventional participation
Protest and Civil Disobedience-- Goal Change Policy through attention of media
Emotion
Reactions to threats which impact one's values and premises
Electoral mandates
Reality is that elections are getting closer and closer, and politicians continue to claim mandates whenever they win elections
Red and Blue America
Red and Blue have different proclivities, goes beyond just politics
Trust in each other
Reduced trust in each other
Trust in Institutions
Reduced trust in sources of information. There is an ease of access to both misinformation and disinformation. Trust in Supreme Court, Congress, and the presidency is decreasing
Corrupt Bargain
Refers to the presidential election of 1824 in which Henry Clay, the Speaker of the House, convinced the House of Representatives to elect Adams rather than Jackson.
Caucuses
Relatively closed affairs in which registered partisans attend meetings at election precinct locations and vote to select delegates to the country or state party conventions
Populism
Rule by the common people
Retention elections
Some elections are about keeping them around or not Most are generally retained
Ideological Sorting
Sorting the public's political attitude or point of view based on their ideology. For example, liberals tend to gravitate towards the Democratic Party and conservatives gravitate towards GOP.
Origins of Partisanship
Started with the Constitution and the ideas of Federalists and Anti-federalists. The nature of American politics is partisan
Swing States
States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro-Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes
Frontloading
States' decisions to move their presidential primaries and caucuses to earlier in the nomination season in order to capitalize on media attention.
Is money as predictive as fundamentals?
Such as Party ID, state and district geography, presidential coattails, etc.
Buckley v. Valeo 1976
Supreme Court strikes down limits on an individual expenditures to own campaigns -Why? --Considered it to be free speech --Believed one could not corrupt one's own self
Determinants of voter turnout
T= P(B)- C +D Plus the funnel of causality
Invisible Primary
That early time period where they are building teams, raising money, and securing endorsements ----Happens before announcements/before primaries begin
The fundamentals
The Economy Mainly Macroeconomic indicators: -Inflation rate --Was relatively low since the 1980s, becoming more important as it has skied recently -Unemployment rate --Far more important in the past 30 years -GDP ----People probably do not have the answers to questions about these things but have a good sense of them ------Used to pay x for milk but now pay y ------There is a recency bias, usually last 6 months ------Understanding can be influenced by Party ID
Big 5/OCEAN and Ideology/Partisanship
The OCEAN traits and competitiveness help shape values and premises which influence one's partisanship
The United States
The U.S. is a liberal democratic republic
Social networks
The connection of people and who they surround themselves with. Depending on your social network you can be more or less likely to vote.
Negative Partisanship
The degree to which one loathes the other party; How much one fears, loathes, or hates the other party.
First states
The first two states are Iowa and New Hampshire. Consequences: -Some campaigns pour their whole war chest into Iowa and are out of the race if they do not do well. -The two states are not demographically representative of the United States, so some are not fans of them going first.
Funnel of Causality in regard to determinants of vote choice
The funnel of causality is the plethora of things that influence ones vote choice. Some independent variables that influence vote choice are: -Social characteristics --Weak influences -Party ID --Strong determinant of vote choice ----90% of weak partisans and independent leaners side with their party -Ideology --strongly -Issue Attitudes --strongly -Single issue voters -The fundamentals --Economic and political conditions -top of the ticket candidate image --Popularity, approval, likeability -Party line voting --80% -Emotions --Fear and disgust -Name recognition and incumbency --Partisans willing to break lines are often doing so to vote --High visibility in Senate races weakens incumbency
Representativeness
The idea of how well the state's population reflects the greater US population
Party Leadership Model
The idea that most people's issue opinions come from what the party leaders set forth
Nurture
The idea that we are shaped that by the environment around us. Liberals believe government should nurture population
Fundamentals
The main fundamental aspect of campaigning is the economy
Response Rates
The number of people participating in a study relative to the number of people sampled
The Presidential nominating process
The parties make the rules. Neither major party have the same rules. The modern process began around 1972
Voter Turnout
The percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election
Trends
The public opinion research tells us the public is largely ignorant, misinformed, and sometimes disinformed
Politics
The pursuit, organization and consequences of power
Mechanisms behind media bias
Three key mechanisms behind it: -Agenda setting --Choosing ----what to cover ----Who to have on ------Similar terms to agenda setting: Gatekeeping, filtering -Framing --Portrayal ----Similar terms to framing: ------Interpretation, manipulation, distortion, spin -Priming --Talking about issues in specific ways --Puts them at the top of people's heads
How is power pursued in an autocracy?
Through force/coercion
How is power pursued in a democracy?
Through persuasion. I.e. campaigns/election
Market saturation
Too many options with people fighting for a piece of the pie
Working the refs
Trying to get them to handle the next issue more even-handedly or even in your favor
Heritability
Typically, one's partisan affiliation is passed down from their parents.
Misinformation
Untrue or wrong information -Confidently wrong about issues -Not intentional -Multiplying effect
Current Partisan leaning by education
Up until the mid 19902 higher education leaned Republican. -Presently more education leans Democrat --Especially more advanced degrees
propsective voting
Use current conditions to predict the future and based their decisions on that projection
Negative Advertising
Used during the general election when it is not attacking your own party. This minimizes the chance for a potential boomerang effect.
How do we measure voter turnout?
VTR= # of voters/# eligible voters
Sawblade or Sharktooth graph of Voter Turnout
Voter turnout is higher in presidential elections, but the gap is narrowing with turnout in midterms. However, it is not likely to ever close. More recently turnout has increased in both elections.
Semi-Open Primaries
Voters fill out party-specific ballots, but they do not have to officially affiliate with either party. If an independent or non-affiliated voter wants to vote for a Democrat in the primary election, they vote with a Democratic ballot when they arrive at the voting booth. Likewise, if they want to vote for a Republican in the primary election, they cast a Republican ballot.
Primary vs General Election Campaigns
When are funds spent? -Funds are spent earlier in primaries in order to frontload -Funds spent later in general election- closer to Election Day- to provide a final push ----People are more engaged ----Helps with GOTV ----Less surprises ----Diminishing effects are minimized when you do it later Where are funds spent? -In the early states during primary elections -In swing states during general elections Where do candidates travel? -They always travel to Iowa in the primary election -Swing states during gen. election Are negative ads used? -During general election when it is not attacking your own party ----Minimize chance for boomerang effect
Incumbency advantage
With state legislature election, similar to the 90% incumbency advantage seen at the federal level
Do campaigns even matter? Why or why not?
Yes Why? -Mobilize voters -Educate voters -Can help with candidate selection during primaries -Shape the national narrative -Democratic function ----Enhances the spirit of democracy -Boost latent partisanship ----Remind people which party they do/ do not belong to -Connecting political conditions to partisanship -Future financing ----More important for House races
Does campaign financing matter?
Yes, they do matter. --Obama had more than double the campaign funds than McCain did --Nominees for each party are now spending over a billion dollars
Do campaign resources matter?
Yes, they do. But if each candidate has roughly the same amount of money, then how you use it gives you an edge: -Where and how you spend your money? ----Which states? ----What type of ad? Internet? TV? -More efficient use of money -More effective use of money ----Like Obama with microtargeting
The Doctrine of Sufficiency
You need a sufficient amount of money enter the political sphere
U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton (1995)
a landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision in which the Court ruled that states cannot impose qualifications for prospective members of the U.S. Congress stricter than those the Constitution specifies.
Margin of Error
a measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll
Presidential coattail effects
a phenomenon whereby a political candidate or leader's popularity leads to improved vote totals for fellow party candidates further down the ballot.
Primaries
a preliminary election to appoint delegates to a party conference or to select the candidates for a principal, especially presidential, election.
Party ID
a psychological attachment to one political party or the other
Challengers
a reference to people running against incumbent officeholders
Voter eligibility requirements?
citizenship, residence, age
Empirical claims
claims that can be true or false depending on the facts
Watchdog Role
educating people; and also making sure things are above board
Congressional Elections
elections held every 2 years for the whole of the House of Representatives and one third of the senate
Systemic Error
error that tends toward being either too high or too low caused by flaws to the approach
Online advertising
increasing
Disinformation
information that has been fabricated or distorted in order to advance a hidden agenda. It is intentional
Infotainment
mass media programming that is intended primarily to entertain, but also provides political news -Usually more on the Left, but growing on the right (mostly podcasts and YouTube channels) SNL Jimmy Kimmel
How seats switch parties
members retire
Narrowcasting
news aimed at a narrowly defined area or audience
On year vs off year elections
off year elections have much lower turnout
