Human-Induced Change: The Case of Climate Change
Ben Santer was accused of
"Doctoring the report" to make the science seem firmer than it was
George Monbiot, 2006, Heat
"It is fair to say that the professional denial industry has delayed effective global action on climate change by years"
Why is public opinion important
"at the end of the day it's the democracies, it's the population, [that] have to give permission to the governments to actually do something. And they're not going to give the permission if they don't fully understand the problem."
The oil industry payed
$5m to train climate scientists to disprove prevailing scientific evidence
Adaptation Responses: Heat (Community preparedness)
- Alert systems - Access/ transportation to cooling centers - Education
Planning horizons
- Anticipatory adaptation: Difficult - Incremental adaptation could be maladaptive in the long-run
Regional complexity reflects
- Atmospheric circulation patterns - Seasonal variability
Adaptation Responses: Heat Waves
- Built: Increased power generating capacity - Community preparedness
Climate change denial (Science)
- Cast doubt on the science & scientists - Junk science: scientific data, research or analysis that is considered fraudulent
Why Transformative (Very large changes)
- Changes beyond the likely range of current assessments - Local "hotspots" where global change is amplified - Tipping points that cause rapid climate change impacts in certain regions or globally
Adaptation (Transformational)
- Changes the fundamental attributes of a system in response to climate and its effects - Enlarged scale or intensity - New Adaptations - Different Places and Locations
Human assisted Adaptation in natural systems
- Creation of migration corridors - Transplanting plants/ trees - Manual removal and transport of trapped species
Droughts responceses
- Desalinization plants - Efficiency: Landscaping, Household use (size compared to industrial) - Forestry: Thinning - reduce fuel loads
Climate Change Mitigation
- Developing means to adapt - Reducing carbon emissions - Active measures to counteract effects
The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition (TASSC)
- Discredit EPA report - Fight anti-smoking legislation - Pass legislation favorable to tobacco industry - Encourage the public to question science in general
Alpine Tourism Opportunities
- Diversification: Restaurants/ shops - Seasons/ activities - Snow making - Aspect - Grooming (winter and summer)
Atmospheric CO2 sources and accumlation
- Emissions from fossil fuels - Emissions from land use changes
We don't worry too much about things we don't think are going to happen to us
- Especially when expected to happen in the future - Will climate change affect you in the next 10 years
Indirect impacts of climate change
- Extinction rates increase - Diseases spread from the tropics - Outbreaks of pests - Cold countries, may enjoy an increase in agricultural productivity - Other regions may become too hot and dry for agriculture: Fire risk increases
Adaptation Responses: Heat (Built)
- Fans, a/c units - Energy efficiency: insulation
Natural Defenses
- Green roofs/ parks - Permeable paving - Lighter colored building material
Melting of major ice sheets
- Greenland: ~7m rise (full potential) - Western Antarctica: ~3.5 m rise (full potential)
Co-benefits
- Human health (improving air quality - Economic benefits (new industries)
What is currently being done
- Hurricanes: Levees vs Wetlands - Heat waves in cities: Increased infrastructure vs Urban Greening
Coastal Erosion/ storm surge flooding (Migration)
- Large scale: Low-lying islands - Small scale: Farther inland
Global Warming Potential (GWP): Calculated from its
- Lifetime - Ability to absorb IR radiation (Radiative forcing)
Temperature change for the end of the 21st century
- Likely to exceed 1.5 degrees relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. - Likely to exceed 2 degrees for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 - More likely than not to exceed 2 degrees for RCP4.5
Sequestration (sinks) in:
- Lithosphere - Biosphere - Ocean
Adaptation (Incremental)
- Maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale - Extensions of actions and behaviours that already reduce the losses or enhance the benefits of natural variations in climate and extreme events
Examples of Transformational adaptation (Water efficient maize)
- Major food and cash crop in much of east Africa - but drought! - Higher yielding drought-tolerant maize varieties - Distribute the seed to farmers for 25 Y no royalties + best agronomic practices
Combating spatial bias
- Make effects local
Combating optimism bia
- Make effects personal - Make it about now, not later
Combating confirmation bias
- Make it relevant: talk about "green economy"; "health", or "your children" instead of climate change
Atmospheric CO2 sinks
- Oceans - Land
Causes of Natural Climate Change
- Orbital variations - Solar variability - Volcanism - Greenhouse effect
Our opinions are formed through
- Our values, worldviews - Family, friends - Own experience
Why Transformative (Very vulnerable regions and activities)
- Physical setting - Vulnerable populations - Marginal productivity
It's not about the science, but (1)
- Political views and ideology - Conservative views colour one's interpretation of the science, which is seen as threatening - IPCC consensus seen as a threat to trade and industry - No (international) regulation (1)
Are fear appeals effective
- Problem is made very big, abstract - Don't generally provide people with solutions - Don't take into account that people perceive environmental risks in different ways
Adaptation (Reactive)
- Re-gain stability after extreme events - Rallying point: But short-sighted
Natural Defenses (Co-benefits)
- Recreation - Well-being/ aesthetics - Economic opportunities - Wildlife habitat
Environmental justice
- Responsibility - Who pays
Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
- Scientific 'concensus' process (global) - Ongoing reporting since 1990 - Rich archive of information - 3 Working Groups: science, impacts, mitigation
Fox News confirms existing beliefs of climate sceptics
- Scientists arguing against human-caused - "climate change is caused by the sun" - "climate change is a hoax"
Climate Change Mitigation (Active measures to counteract effects)
- Sequestration: removing CO2 from atmosphere - Geoengineering (e.g. limit solar radiation)
Mismatch in timing between political impact and environmental impact
- Short term versus long term - Public opinion important
Concerted effort to discredit scientific evidence of negative effects of
- Smoking - Acid rain - Global warming
Why CO2 is key
- Transferred to the atmosphere quickly via several exchanges - It remains longer in the atmosphere (Easy come, not so easy go) - There is a lot of it and it is increasing
Why Transformative
- Very vulnerable regions and activities - Very large changes
It's not about the science, but (2)
- Vested interests (e.g. fossil fuel industry) - Accepting science of anthropogenic climate change means we have to do something about it - Carbon taxes, lifestyle changes are a threat to capitalism
Droughts affect
- Water supplies - Agriculture - Forests - Energy - Plants, animals, and ecosystems
Mechanisms of change
- Who is driving it - Who takes ownership
Total temperature increase 1880-2012
0.85 +/- 0.20 degrees
Thermal expansion
1 degree warming would cause a rise of about 0.5 m (but varies spatially)
Average sea level rise of
1.7 mm/yr from 1900 to 2000 from tide gauges on coastines
Little Ice Age
1500-1700 AD
Rise of about 3.2 mm/yr since
1993 measured by satellite altimeters
Out of 233 total countries where does New Zealand Rank in terms of direct risks from sea level rise
42nd
Medieval warm period
800-1000 AD
2015 CO2 concentration
> 400 ppm
Example of a Pro-active, Incremental adaptation
A power company increases its generating capacity in response to climate predictions that suggest an increase in the number of days customers will need to run their a/c units
People make subjective judgments
About environmental riskes
Use of visualizations can help
Address spatial bias - Possible effects for local area
Mitigation
Addresses the causes
Agroforestry in Africa
Agriculture: - Drought tolerant varieties - Agroforestry
Media & communication campaign
Aimed to undermine climate science (FOX News)
Greenhouse gases are the
Amplifier of glacial - interglacial global temperature and sea level change
"Delaying action is a false economy. For every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020,
An additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions."
Adaptation (Proactive)
Anticipatory - Uncertainty - Cost - Institutional/ Behavioral barriers
Creating doubt: climate change (Attack)
Attack climate change supporters
Creating doubt: tobacco (Attack)
Attack opponents of the tobacco industry
Climate change denial
Attempts to downplay, deny or dismiss scientific consensus on climate change
Some climate change impacts are far-reaching
But no two communities experience impacts in the same way
Decadal warming well explained
By increase in greenhouse gases
820-950 billion tonnes of
C -> 2 degrees global warming
People form beliefs about
Climate change in different ways
50% of Americans agree that
Climate change is caused by human activity
61% of Americans believe
Climate change is happening
Adaptation
Deals with the effects
Examples of Transformational adaptation (Relocation)
Different places and locations: Carteret islands in Papua New Guinea are - Residents migrating as a result of sea level rise - Australian aid project is currently preparing islanders for livelihoods in Australia
Ice Age cycles caused by variations in
Distribution of Earth's insolation due to long term changes in axis and orbit
Contemporary Climate Change
Driven by anthropogenic greenhouse effect superimposed upon natural variability
Quaternary glacial cycles
Driven by natural variability (principally Milankovitch orbital forcing) but with greenhouse effect as an important feedback mechanism
570 billion tonnes C
Emitted since 1870
Practice regional climate models
Enable more accurate projections
Human activity has
Enhanced the natural greenhouse effect
Mountain communities
Especially vulnerable: - River flooding - Runoff timing - Fire - Tourism
Superimposed on Ice Age cycles are smaller short-term
Fluctuations caused by variations in the Sun's output
Example of Incremental adaptation
Forest thinning as wildfire protection - Scale - Re-building
Important to understand how people
Form opinions about climate change
Knowledge-deficit approach
Give people more evidence, more facts: - Increased awareness about climate change - Increased likelihood people will take action
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap outgoing radiation causing warming of Earth
Urban
Heat Islands
Projected Direct Impacts (to 2100 AD): Heatwaves
Heatwaves are expected to increase
Predicted return period 2080-2100AD for
Heavy rainfall events that currently (1986-2005) occur every 20 years (high emissions pathway)
Low cost of action versus the
High cost of inaction: Social cost of climate change
As a result of climate change New Zealand is predicted to be
Hotter, Wetter and Dryer depending on where you are and what season it is
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
How much a given mass of a particular GHG contributes to global warming
Adaptation (Natural systems)
Human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects
Climate has played a critical role in
Human-environment interaction throughout history and prehistory
97 out of 100 climate experts agree
Humans are causing global warming
Attempts to discredit work of Ben Santer
IPCC lead author of chapter on anthropogenic climate change
Since 2005 both Greenland and West Antarctic
Ice sheets have been losing mass
The strongest threat to biodiversity comes not from climate change itself but
In combination with human activity - Anthropogenic climate change - Intensified resource utilization - Introduced alien species
Much uncertainty
In precipitation projections
Restoration of wetlands, mangroves, dunes (Co-benefits)
Increased habitat for biodiversity, aesthetics, recreation, storm protection
Example of Proactive adaptation to climate change
Increasing green spaces in a city that is expected to have increased incidence of heat waves
Each molecule of methane has as much effect on
Infrared radiation as about 60 molecules of CO2
Albedo is a
Internal climate factor that affects climate change
Projected Direct Impacts (to 2100 AD): Sea level
Low-lying ground, including many major cities of the world, may be inundated by sea level rise
Less direct experience with extreme weather events
Lower concern about climate change
Discredit work of
Michael Mann
Adaptation (Human systems)
Moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities
Increase in methane dies away
Much more quickly than one CO2
Is recent warming trend
Natural variability or something else
Localized effects of climate change necessitate
Necessitate local scale adaptation activities
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
New set of scenarios introduced by IPCC 2013 (AR5) and used for the new climate model simulations
Climate change denial (Government intervention)
No government intervention based on "junk science"
For action more facts is important
Not always effective
Giving people more facts is
Not going to be sufficient
Oil industry funds research
Of climate deniers
Creating doubt: tobacco (Science)
Pay scientists to produce studies defending your product
Creating doubt: climate change (Science)
Pay scientists to produce studies that say climate change is a hoax
Confirmation bias
People have a tendency to favor information that confirms existing values and beliefs - Remember information selectively - Interpret information in a biased way
Gas company political lobbying
Position global warming as "theory" rather than "fact"
Projected Direct Impacts (to 2100 AD): Precipitation
Precipitation will vary markedly (some regions wetter; some drier)
Projected Direct Impacts (to 2100 AD): Global temperature
RCP-dependent increase in global temperature over the next century
Example of a Pro-active, Transformational
Relocation of infrastructure outside the floodplain of a snow-melt fed river in anticipation of changes in runoff timing
Combination of volcanic eruptions and solar change would have
Resulted in small cooling over the last 50 years - Climate change due to greenhouse effect
Risk perception
Risk is subjective - Uncertainty in estimates of climate science
Examples of Transformational adaptation (Re-greening)
Scale or intensity: Re-greening of the Sahel - Drought-prone belt bordering the Sahara - Small-scale autonomous decisions turned large-scale adaptation - Underground root systems as managed forestry - increased resilience
Coastal Erosion/ storm surge flooding (Adaption)
Seawalls, levees, man-made flood plains
We are fast approaching the point where:
Something is happening, but its too late to do anything about it
Local stakeholders are uniquely positioned to implement
Strategic adaptive measures and increase community resilience
Limiting climate change will require
Substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions
Each of the last 3 decades has been
Successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850
Optimism bias
The belief that, compared to other people, you experience: - more positive events - less negative events
There has been an increase in
The mean about of extreme events - Less cold weather - More hot and record hot weather
The same facts about climate change lead
To different interpretations and opinions
Climate change communications need
To take biases into account
Volcanic eruptions emit a range of gases and particles.
Typically sulfur rich (SO2) eruptions - result in short term cooling
Collectively, who is most at risk form increasing frequency of heat waves
Urban populations
Creating doubt: climate change (PR)
Use PR to spread doubt about the science linking human activity to climate change
Creating doubt: tobacco (PR)
Use PR to spread doubt about the science linking tobacco to cancer
When we talk about adapting to climate change
We are really talking about responding to the impacts
Global impacts versus local impacts
We worry less about risks that happen in other places
Spatial bias
When people believe environmental risks are more likely to happen in more distant areas
Calcareous shells reflect chemistry of ocean (Infrastructure Changes)
e.g. Stilts
Melting of alpine glaciers
~ 0.2 to 0.5 m rise (full potential)