INRL 300
According to Butler, what are the two approaches to setting tariffs?
a. Bilateral i. exchange of goods between two countries, not necessarily dependent on agreements with other nations 1. Frequently trigger competing bilateral agreements which MFN avoids b. MFN (Most Favored Nation) i. the country which is the recipient of MFN must receive low tariffs (lower than the tariffs the granting country has set with other non-MFN countries) by the country granting such treatment ii. restrains domestic special interests from obtaining protectionist measures
According to Butler and Kitamura, how can the study of history help policy makers?
a. Butler- individual b. Kitamura-cultural
Camp David I vs Camp David II
a. Camp David I (Camp David Accords) - Carter & very successful i. Signed in September 1978 ii. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli PM Menachem Begin iii. Called for formal peace between Israel and Egypt in the late 1970s & an establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries iv. Explanation for outcomes: no direct negotiations between Israel/Palestine, Carter's personality, nature of the conflict (two states that could potentially have economic relations, for example) b. Camp David II (Camp David Summit) - Clinton & unsuccessful i. July 2000 ii. Israeli PM Ehud Barak and PA Chairman Yasser Arafat iii. Effort to end the Israeli/Palestinian conflict iv. Failed on topics: Territory, Jerusalem and the Temple Mount, Refugees and Palestinian right of return, Security arrangements, Settlements v. Explanation for outcomes: Clinton's bias, what the US meant @ that point in the international realm (context), Clinton's personality, nature of the conflict (long-held, emotional biases on both sides, for example)
Individualism
a. Comprised of neorealism b. Neorealists reduce the structure of the state system to the properties and interactions of its constituent elements (states)
Steven Pinker
a. Contends that violence in the world has declined in the long and short run in The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined i. Review and criticism provided by Snyder, 2012 b. Pinker metric of progress: more people were killed relative to the population in the past compared to the present c. Pinker: people romanticize prehistory, was actually incredibly violent and brutal i. Snyder: sources he cites are just aggregates of other estimates, many of which are just informed guesses d. Pinker: the development of the state was the first step in the decline in violence (suppression of individual violence in presence of limited resources) i. Snyder: does not consider that the creation of the state also made things like total wars and mass killings possible ii. Snyder: also does not consider achievements of state (mass education, pollution control, public health) e. Pinker: the world wars were "horrifically unlucky samples from a statistical distribution" i. Snyder: lol f. Pinker: self control is the central psychological virtue of modern civilization- violence became both impractical and taboo**** i. Snyder: What about the Nazis and Soviets? Does not consider the influence of scarcity of resources
Constructivism
a. An international relations paradigm which emphasizes the importance of subjective norms influencing the behavior of different actors and states in different places of the world. b. The rise of constructivism came at the end of the Cold War when existing paradigms failed to explain the fall of the Soviet Union c. Constructivism draws from sociological theory and comes from a different theoretical orientation -- "how much" vs "what kind"
How many have died in the Syrian civil war?
a. Approximately 470,000 deaths since 2011.
Mind the Gap
a. Arguments for minding over bridging i. Loss of intellectual integrity; politicization of the discipline 1. "Scholars should produce knowledge, not prescriptions" ii. Habits of quiet contemplation, patient labor, and scientific rigor replaced with the quest for short-term policy relevance (the so-called 'rigor-relevance tradeoff') iii. Mid-range theories and regional (or issue-specific) expertise crowd out more abstract, parsimonious, and generalizable theoretical approaches iv. Professional incentives (tenure, promotion) for scholars are weak
Positivist
Generalizing versus Particularizing David Dessler (Optional) Jan. 26 a. Involves a commitment to a natural science methodology, tied to an empiricist epistemology; b. American IR scholars tend to be positivist, empirical, quantitative - British/other schools of IR scholars tend to be more non-positivist, qualitative, normative c. Realist epistemology, which for social scientists is less a detailed philosophical position than a general framework or set of constraints for answering questions about truth and justification.
Deep contingency
Popper lecture, Feb. 2 + 'What Caused the Civil War?' Ayers Reading a. Ayers i. Dense and intricate connections in which lives and events are embedded; ii. Rejects formulations of inevitability, particularly those that pit "progress" against "backwardness" implying an obvious victor; iii. Analysis done by weaving together national events with sectional, political with cultural. iv. Versus 'surface contingency' 1. Ayers claims previous analyses emphasized and dramatized national affirmation and redemption thus obscuring the realities of the period. 2. 'Analyses of chance' are flawed - Ayers v. Ayers extensively studied the US Civil War using this premise of analysis
Soft Power
Using economic and cultural power to influence states
Cordell Hull
a. Longest serving Secretary of State i. Believed in economic liberalism - open market b. Think Butler and diplomacy i. Example of the World Economic Conference of 1933 ii. Roosevelt appointed a delegation at the last minute iii. Late instruction, little power structure - led by Hull iv. Breakdown of communication and conflict between Hull and another member - Moley c. Takeaway? Conduct better diplomacy i. Clear leadership ii. Unified delegation iii. Open communication
Kyoto Protocol - Miliniak
a. Control greenhouse gases to slow climate change b. Think Maliniak i. Domestic institutions are a key factor in environmental policy ii. You don't need people to explicitly ratify c. International treaty begun in 1997 and accepted in 2005 that extends previous UN legislation on climate change i. Says global warming is happening and mankind is responsible for it ii. The responsibility for reducing emissions is placed on developed countries, in recognition of the fact that they created the problem
"Professionalization" of the discipline of IR (Walt)
a. Division of labor and specialization b. Discipline is turning inward; people are focusing only on getting promoted and getting tenured, rather than gearing research toward real-world policy issues
Beliefs vs Aliefs
a. Marcus Holmes' brain child i. There is only so much we can understand about individual action ii. Aliefs are non-belief mental states that motivate action 1. They are affective intuitions - they make us do things even though we aren't really sure why b. Examples of aliefs - things we don't believe, but cannot get over i. Refusing to drink out of a bedpan ii. Inability to pull trigger on an unloaded gun iii. Refusal to eat sugar from a bottle marked "cyanide" iv. Immediately assuming those in turbans are the bad guys (video game) v. Glass skywalk over the Grand Canyon - freaking out when you know you're safe c. Beliefs are what we know, aliefs we cannot quite understand i. Aliefs lead us to deviate from beliefs
Microhistory vs Microeconomics
a. Microhistory - the intensive historical investigation of a well-defined smaller unit of research (most often a single event, the community of a village, or an individual). b. Microeconomics - branch of economics that studies the behavior of individuals and firms in making decisions regarding the allocation of limited resources.
"Moonlighters" vs "In and Outers" - Parks lecture on Bridging the Gap
a. Moonlighters i. Those with significant consulting assignments undertaken for governments or intergovernmental organizations 1. Do not return to the academy with new perspectives and publication priorities b. In and Outers i. Faculty members who temporarily leave the ivory tower to accept policy positions 1. Return to the academy with new perspectives and publication priorities c. Think Brad Parks (he came up with this term) - looking at the effects of policy exposure on IR scholarship i. Concludes that moonlighters don't show much influence, whereas in an outers do d. As the discipline becomes professionalized, IR scholars look internally instead of looking for policy implications
Conditionality vs Selectivity
a. strategies development agencies have employed in an attempt to counter the potential for misuse of foreign aid b. Conditionality i. a set of requirements, determined in the grant or loan agreement, which must be implemented prior to further disbursement of the loan or grant c. Selectivity i. entails a rigorous ex ante determination process about which countries will receive an initial allocation of funds; making funds available to countries based solely on their past performance according to certain criteria
Structurationism
a. tries to avoid the negative consequences of individualism and structuralism by giving agents and structures equal ontological status
Structuralism - world system theory
a. world system theory b. World system theorists reduce state (and class) agents to effects of the reproduction requirements of the capitalist world system
Context and Culture
area studies - Popper (6 C's) and Kitamura (what historians care about) and Quark a. Context and culture determine interpretation of history b. The past is mediated by the historian and the degree to which he interprets each of these c. Popper/Kitamura i. Late 20th century attention to discourse in narrative ii. Culturalism & the 'cultural turn' not only in history, but many aspects of academia d. Especially utilised when neither realism nor liberalism could serve to explain fall of USSR and end of Cold War e. Area studies - Hanson i. Importance of interpretation and translation from area to US policy
The first globalization
- a phrase used by economists to describe the world's first major period of globalization of trade and finance, which took place between 1870 and 1914. The "second globalization" began in the 1970s and continues today. (Feldman lecture, March 29) a. First globalization characterized by lots of foreign direct investment - more than there is today i. Also lots of immigration ii. Explosion of merchandise trade b. Technology helped fuel globalization: the steam engine transported people and goods c. Had powerful effects on income inequality in countries that received a lot of immigrants (like the U.S.), led to backlash against free trade/immigration d. According to Krugman and Feldman, the first globalization ended because of the politics of post-WWI; nationalist ideologies dominating global economic integration
Kashmir's Line of Control
- cease-fire line separating Indian and Pakistani Kashmir a. Zutshi lecture Feb 23: historian's perspective on international & domestic conflict b. Zutshi argued dominant narratives were either religious or nationalist c. "After intensive diplomatic efforts by other countries, India and Pakistan began to withdraw troops from the international border on 10 June 2002, and negotiations restarted. From 26 November 2003, India and Pakistan agreed to maintain a ceasefire along the undisputed international border, the disputed Line of Control, This was the first such "total ceasefire" declared by both powers in nearly 15 years. In February 2004, Pakistan increased pressure on Pakistanis fighting in Indian-administered Kashmir to adhere to the ceasefire. Their neighbours launched several other mutual confidence-building measures. Restarting the bus service between the Indian- and Pakistani- administered Kashmir has helped defuse tensions between the countries while both India and Pakistan have decided to co-operate on economic fronts."
The Three "Great Debates"
- historical disagreements over the field of IR that have defined the field today a. The first great debate, which Miles Kahler (1997) has termed the 'foundational myth of the field', was between the interwar 'idealists' and the post-war 'realists'. i. Almost every historical account concedes that the realists won the first debate and, as a result, reoriented the field in a more practical and scientific direction ii. While the idealists supposedly envisioned ever-lasting peace, the Second World War is depicted as a glaring anomaly representing a severe crisis in the idealist paradigm, which eventually resulted in its replacement by the realist paradigm, which was superior in its ability to rationally explain the persistent and ubiquitous struggle for power among nations b. The second great debate took place within the context of the behavioral revolution that was already deeply impacting the social sciences, especially political science, and which pitted 'traditionalists' against 'behavioralists' (scientists) i. A growing sentiment among American scholars was that the field was losing ground in its quest to acquire the mantle of science ii. the debate became polarized between those who believed that the methods of the natural sciences, could be emulated and adopted in the study of international politics, versus those who argued that the study of the social world was not amenable to the strict empirical methods of natural science iii. There is a common view that the debate helped to foster the scientific identity of the field through the widespread acceptance and utilization of scientific methods which aided in the task of developing a cumulative theory of international politics. c. The third debate is more ambiguous than the other two debates, but it is commonly described as an inter-paradigm debate that took place in the early 1980s among realists, pluralists and structuralists i. Taken seriously in Europe, not in the U.S. ii. Deconstruct all narratives told in international relations - iii. Post-structuralists and Laura Shepard - take traditional IR seriously iv. During the 1970s, realism was less popular when events in the realm of international politics appeared to contradict some of the key realist assumptions about the nature of interstate politics v. critics of realism attacked the core claims of state-centrism, the notion that independence rather than interdependence characterized the condition of international politics, and that a clear distinction could be made between 'high politics' and 'low politics' vi. There was no distinct winner to this but rather a plurality not in favor of realism.
Realism
- world politics is always and necessarily a field of conflict among actors pursuing power. I.e. power politics and national interest a. 3 kinds of realism i. Classical realists believe that the properties of realism stem from human nature ii. Neorealists believe that the properties of realism stem from the structure of the anarchic state system iii. Neoclassical realists believe that realism stems from anarchy of the world system and human nature as well b. Also, 2 kinds of ways to navigate world politics i. Offensive realism - assumes that states seek to maximize their power and influence to achieve security through domination and hegemony. ii. Defensive realism - structural theory from realism that states that the anarchical structure of the international system encourages states to maintain moderate and reserved policies to attain security. c. Realism has a long history being drawn back to Thucydides and the Melian Dialogue and it is still a widely accepted and applied theory today
Idealism
-- holds that a state should make its internal political philosophy the goal of its foreign policy. a. Woodrow Wilson was an early example of idealist and a precursor to liberalist thought with his idea for the league of nations in the wake of WWI b. Recent practitioners of Idealism in the United States have included Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. c. One of the most well-known tenets of modern idealist thinking is democratic peace theory, which holds that states with similar modes of democratic governance do not fight one another.
Generalization
Generalizing versus Particularizing David Dessler (Optional) Jan. 26 a. Positivist model yields two distinct research strategies: generalizing and particularizing i. Generalizing: researchers treat the event to be explained as an instance of a certain type of event, which is then shown to accompany or follow regularly from conditions of a specified kind 1. Event is explained as an instance of a particular type rather than the end-point of a concrete historical sequence, ii. Particularizing: the researcher explains an event by detailing the sequence of happenings leading up to it
London Economic Conference (Butler lecture)
Interwar econ. dipl. a. Conference took place in the summer of 1933 in order to negotiate free trade agreements i. Conference characterized by FDR's disorganized planning and staffing and last-minute instructions for the diplomats in attendance (Cordell Hull) ii. Moreover, Moley (assistant secretary of state) undercut Hull by negotiating trade agreements under the table b. Butler uses the conference and its cast of historical characters, including Secretary of State Cordell Hull and FDR, to illustrate the importance of the individual and relationships between individuals in crafting legislation
Cultural Turn in History
Kitamura lecture Feb. 16 + Sewell, Logics of History (Optional), Feb. 2 a. Follows from nationalist [high politics] → realist [balance of power/security] → revisionist (Wisconsin) [challenged 'American saviour' & good intentions] → post-revisionist [multiarchival, multiple languages, more international history] schools → b. Culturalist School 1980s-1990s i. Popular culture, grassroots politics, media, social movements ii. Challenges framework of nation-state, cultural products, transnational flows, immigration, identity 1. Hollywood as an imperial US tool - cultural hierarchy iii. The concept of culture, and the related notions of meaning, cognition,affect, and symbols at the center of methodological and theoretical focus
Ideational Turn in IR
Maliniak and Tierney: The American School of IPE (Optional) Jan. 26 a. There has been an 'ideational turn' in IR over the past few decades wherein constructivism has achieved paradigmatic popularity on par with realism or liberalism; b. Constructivism in the study of world politics is little more than a decade old, yet in that short time it has risen to challenge realism and liberalism as a leading approach in international relations; c. This turn appears to be almost nowhere evident in IPE articles published in the top journals, and, if evident at all, seems to be turning in the opposite direction versus traditional IR journals where it is evident; i. IPE scholars were 19% less likely than scholars in other subfields to report a focus on ideational factors in their research. However, the majority, 64%, do emphasize ideational factors, compared to the 83% of non-IPE scholars who employ ideational factors in their analyses; ii. Not only do they employ ideational factors at different rates, but IPE and non-IPE scholars focus on different ideational variables in their work as well; iii. IPE scholarship has done little to contribute to the 'ideational turn' in IR research. d. Constructivism in the study of world politics is little more than a decade old, yet in that short time it has risen to challenge realism and liberalism as a leading approach in international relations; i. Was originally a set of largely 'metatheoretical' arguments that identified problems with existing analytical frameworks in the study of world politics and sketched the architecture of a new orientation. ii. Ideas and discourse matter
Verifiability and information asymmetries in principal-agent theory
a. "The logic of the principal-agent model immediately leads us to theoretical issues at the heart of the contractual paradigm: issues of hierarchical control in the context of information asymmetry and conflict of interest" i. When a principal delegates a job to an agent, conflict can arise when the agent fails knows more about the job than the principle and can cheat (see Madison's dilemma ID) b. Verifiability: finding ways to make agents credible, such as screening or increasing accountability c. Examples: Ben-Yishay's research on the DMV in India i. DMV delegates people to check people's documents and administer driving tests ii. Certain tasks that agents perform are easy to verify - in this case, the birth certifates needed to get a drivers' license 1. Other tasks are harder to verify, such as administering drivers' tests 2. So there was more agency slack in the drivers' tests, according to Ben-Yishay's research
Inductive:
a. (See: Inductive vs Deductive Reasoning) b. Starts with specific observations/evidence → general theories , informal & replicable
For macroeconomists, why does war cause declines in economic growth?
a. *****just wars or also regime change/other types of unrest/conflict?***** b. Kent c. Destruction of physical capital, dislocation of populations, deterred investment in physical and human capital, interruption of provision of public goods, contract provision, rule of law etc d. recession->regime change/conflict/war->recession gets worse
Jim Kim
a. 12th president of the World Bank// World Bank reform/ b. Experienced resistance from an entrenched culture
Delegation
a. A conditional grant of authority from a principal to an agent that empowers the latter to act on behalf of the former; is limited in time or scope and must be revocable by the principal; b. Delegation problems: shirking, slippage, Madison's dilemma (mutiny) c. Solutions to delegation problems: screening & selection, monitoring, sanctions, checks & balances, incentive alignment via contract d. Why delegate? i. Specialisation, coordination, credibility, lock-in (guard against inconsistency) ii. Delegation as a tool of war (ex. Bargaining problem @ end of Persian Gulf War 1990-91 → delegation to a 3rd party [UNSC])
Madison's Dilemma - Tierney lecture
a. A delegation problem wherein there is a mutiny -- for example, the state that citizens elected to fulfill public good turns its guns back on citizens
Internal Devaluation - Schrieber
a. A problem they wanted to solve with European Monetary Union b. No fixed currency = when prices in one place go up, currency is appreciated & depreciates in other places (capital flight) c. Within europe, solving problem of germany's over-influence by created a fixed currency (the Euro) and eliminating incidences of internal devaluation of currency i. Key to restoring competitiveness but would be painful & politically disruptive
AidData - Tierney lecture
a. A research and innovation lab, makes aid information more accessible and actionable b. Funded by 'soft money' i. A contribution to a political party that is not accounted as going to a particular candidate, thus avoiding various legal limitations c. Data problems in int'l development: missing donors, missing fields, inaccurate categories d. Real-world benefits from better data: more efficient coordination, transparency and accountability leads to less poverty, planning better, advocacy for NGO do-gooders
Prisoner's Dilemma- Feldman
a. A situation in which two players each have two options whose outcome depends crucially on the simultaneous choice made by the other i. Two prisoners separately deciding whether to confess to a crime b. Deterrence requires credibility i. Earn over time a reputation for playing cooperatively ii. Brinksmanship - convince the other person you're crazy
COW Database - Correlates of War Database
a. Academic study of the history of warfare i. Sarkees et al (Singer and Wayman) UMich b. Catalog of every war since 1816 - establishes massive quantitative set - trends i. Three types of wars: inter-state, extra-state, and intra-state ii. War is definitely on the decline iii. The most casualties are from inter-state, intra-state has half as many, and extra-state is only a few million
When did the field of international relations emerge? -> read shmmidt article
a. According to Schmidt (On the History and Historiography of IR), while thinking about international relations as its own discipline did begin in the early 20th century, the conventional wisdom of "three great debates" defining the evolution of the field is an oversimplification b. Conventional wisdom: field emerged as a debate between realists and idealists in between WWI and WWII i. Realists believed in a condition of anarchy and that states made decisions based on building security capabilities ii. Idealists believed that states made decisions based on their democratic ideologies
UNSCOM - Tierney
a. An agent/delegated authority created to monitor implementations of various UN resolutions and ensure that Iraq complied with Security Council Resolutions not to produce biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons after the Gulf War b. Design: Security Council is the sole principle of the agent UNSCOM which insulated agents from political meddling from others i. had the authority to determine and declare whether a state is in compliance but not to enforce any resolutions. Inspectors were given hella autonomy by their principal in terms of how and where to conduct inspections → resulted in IRaqi government reacting and "inspectors being overly-aggressive" in their tactic and unnecessarily trampling Iraqi sovereignty ii. Had the legal right to request & receive intelligence information from UN members
Double Whammy Fiscal Deficits & Bank Runs//Eurozone - Schreiber
a. Double Whammy #1 : Govt borrowed heavily before the crisis (Greece, Portugal) i. Bloated public sector in combination with uncompetitive private sector ii. Reliant on borrowing from abroad (large current account deficits) iii. Large debt levels before crisis, iv. Gov imposes austerity measures & unemployment rises (unemployment and welfare benefits might mean that the overall effect on the budget is not as large as initially assumed) v. European treaty was supposed to prevent all that, limit both deficits and debt, and ensure stability and growth but thresholds were not uniformly applied b. Double Whammy #2: Banking, housing, financial crisis similar in relative magnitude to the one that occurred in US (ireland, Spain) i. Govt guarantees banking sector which increases govt debt dramatically. Ireland had a budget deficit of over 33% of GDP in 2010 ii. Bottomless pit as more and more private sector borrowers default in prolonged recession combined with govt austerity measures
Annales School & Braudel - Popper lecture
a. Early/mid-20th century school - questioning the scales of perspectives of documents and high political history b. Longue Durée i. Priority to long-term structural history over isolated events, particularly geographic or ecological continuities, 'accidents of history' are arbitrary ii. Used social scientific methods such as economic history c. Quantification and models; Social and economic history; different kinds of history such as stories of the family, of childhood, of diseases i. Universal history d. A mixture of social sciences and sciences - robust bulwark, scientific ambitions e. Criticisms: value judgement, geographic factors are evolving, based on a few cultures, overly dogmatic
Comparative Advantage
a. Econ: ability of a country to produce goods or services at a lower opportunity cost than any other countries, so they can sell said good at a lower price b. Factor endowments → comparative advantage → Determines nations interests → determines policy
Six Features of Science- Tierney lecture
a. Empirical/logical evidence, falsifiable claims, reproducible and transparent procedures, general laws embedded in theory, description + explanation + prediction, positive (not normative) claims b. Process of gaining knowledge through scientific method
Rankean Approach to History
a. Focus on primary documents and high political history i. Primary sources, especially treaties and other state documents - if a state signed off of them, they can be taken to be "accurate" 1. Emphasis on government documents as primary sources led to "high political history" b. Great men as the drivers of history c. History could be objective and would focus on diplomatic and nationalist history i. History could be narrowed down to a science, and the past could be understood as something objective
Did foreign aid get dirtier or more environmentally friendly in the 1990s?
a. From Roberts et al, Greening Aid, 2009 i. Described the development and purpose of PLAID (project-level aid database) ii. Goal: to be a credible mechanism that independently monitors whether donors are honoring environmental commitments and measures how effective that aid is b. Aid has partially greened but not to the level promised by donors at previous summits i. 1980-2000, environmental aid increased substantially in absolute and relative terms ii. Environmentally neutral aid increased by an even greater margin iii. Dirty aid declined in relative terms and remained unchanged in absolute terms c. Water and sanitation projects attract most funding, climate change and biodiversity funding increased drastically
Sequencing as a blueprint for synthesis
a. From Tierney/Weaver article on the potential ways scholars can integrate across disciplines b. Sequencing involves employing different disciplinary approaches to different steps in a causal sequence c. "Theory X will be used to explain or specify a causal variable that will subsequently be employed by Theory Y to explain the ultimate dependent variable under study" d. For example: constructivism can help explain an actor's identity and preferences; then, rationalism can help explain bargaining outcomes between actors with fixed preferences i. Here, constructivism adds specificity and context to the game theoretic predictions of rationalism
Does Zutshi put forward predominantly Hindu/Indian narratives or Muslim/Pakistani narratives in her literary review on Kashmir?
a. From Zutshi, We must remain mad in order to be sane, 2015 b. Zutshi's emphasis is not placed on Hindu/Indian narratives or Muslim/Pakistani narratives, but rather unique and nuanced Kashmiri narratives (focusing specifically on trauma) i. Most of them reject the Indian and Pakistani nationalist discourses on Kashmir ii. "the exiled Pandits lost their homeland, their ancestors, and their past; the Muslims who stayed in Kashmir lost their sons, their neighbors, and their future" iii. Tries to find a Kashmiri narrative out of the trauma both Muslims and Hindus have experienced there
World Bank Strategic Compact
a. From the Tierney-Weaver article on applying synthesized approach to reform of the World Bank b. The compact was the Bank's attempt to "alter project management, organizational culture, and the mission of the institution itself" i. It was launched in 1996 in response to growing criticisms from NGOs and civil society groups that the Bank has not been working towards its goal of alleviating world poverty c. Tierney and Weaver integrate the top-down logic of a rationalist principal-agent model and the bottom-up logic of sociological constructivism to evaluate the outcomes of World Bank reforms - why didn't the Compact work? d. Significance: the Tierney-Weaver analysis of the World Bank Strategic Compact combines rationalist (principal-agent) and constructivist (organizational sociology) approaches i. Rationalism assumes that actors are strategic: Tierney and Weaver assume that reforms changed the incentive and norms that shape the Bank staff's behavior, with specific attention given to the shared ideologies, norms, and routines that shape how staff members' expectations are set, mandates are operationalized,, projects are implemented and evaluated, and what staff behavior will be rewarded or punished in promotions or demotions (in short, organizational culture)
Eurozone : Schrieber
a. Geographic and economic region of EU nations who use the euro: b. Nominal exchange rate is always 1:1 but real exchange rate changes, reflects price changes among the different countries, peripheral countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Italy) have consistently lost competitiveness since 2000
Agency Slack
a. agency theory - weapons inspectors - UN or World Bank - 1. Tierney world Bank reform paper - 2. paper on un weapons inspectors 3. Tierney lecture defines b. Tierney - World Bank i. Nested P-A relationships that are common to IOs further complicate our use of agency theory ii. Agency slack increases as delegation power grows longer, if there is some slippage at each link in the delegation chain grows longer
Coalition of Iron and Rye in Germany
a. Gourevitch - Tierney March 31st b. Example of backlash to falling transport prices & cheaper grain c. Adoption of protectionism & high tariffs on both Agriculture and Industry in Germany (1873-1896) contributed to both world wars & fascism → first in a series of tariffs resulting from demands for protection from the effects of increasing integration in the international economy/ early example of backlash against globalization d. Endowments: Germany was land abundant/capital scarce but falling transport costs and new players in the international grain market made Germany relatively scarce in both e. INterests: Junkers (landowners) and German capitalists wanted protection i. Gourevitch Argument: actors preferences are determined by their position in international division of labor
Holmes vs Shellman approach to emotions and decision making?
a. Holmes on Theorizing Affect: Beliefs and Aliefs i. "actors often find themselves torn between contradictory affective intuitions, on the one hand, and rational beliefs, on the other" 1. Actors hold rational beliefs but then resulting behavior is irrational ii. Posits that these affective intuitions (aliefs) can help explain what leads actors to abandon their beliefs and desires, allows rational and irrational beliefs and behaviors to coexist 1. Ie. tourists feeling a sense of dread when walking on a glass catwalk over the grand canyon even though rationally they know it's safe 2. Security dilemma: rational belief that buildup of capabilities decreases security but move forward with buildup anyway- irrational action, must have some kind of alief (existential safety?) b. Shellman on Sentiment & Discourse Analysis i. Sentiment analysis: automatic extraction of feelings, likes and dislikes, or opinions from text 1. Sentiment: an emotion, a behavioral disposition, or a rational judgment ii. Believes one can " successfully use automated information obtained from texts to explain and forecast the violent behavior of groups" 1. Looked at "how societal emotions affect government leaders' behavioral responses toward their opponents and constituencies" c. Difference: Holmes looks at the emotions (aliefs and beliefs) of actors/leaders and the decisions they end up making as a result and Shellman looks at societal emotions (general population, dissidents) and attempts to forecast how leaders will react in response to those emotions
What is the MCC Effect?
a. Hook, Ideas and Change in U.S. Foreign Aid: Inventing the Millennium Challenge Corporation, 2008 and Parks and Rice, Does the "MCC Effect" Exist?, 2013 b. The incentive for countries to pursue policy reform in response to the MCC's selection system i. Does it exist? To an extent, but not evenly across countries, time, and policy domains c. Results from surveying leaders in low and middle income countries i. external assessments primarily influential because they help the government understand the nature of critical policy problems, provide practical approaches for addressing difficult policy problems, and complement existing reform efforts ii. financial and reputational rewards are secondary consideration
What is Science?
a. Hypothesis testing, process of gaining knowledge about the world through scientific method b. See: six features of science
What are the benefits of formalizing an argument?
a. Increased credibility b. Krugman: simplifies the thoughts c. Feldman: causal pathways, develop testable hypothesis, simulate outcomes d. Krugman and Feldman: see things that "are not even wrong" they're just impossible (china cannot be a net exporter of goods and services e. You can make your work replicable by using a formal argument f. Deductive thinking: coming up with a theory/logic, then testing it on the field i. When you formalize an argument, you turn it into math ii. If the theory works mathematically, it is logically sound iii. Formalizing helps with checking internal logic of the argument
Second Image Reversed
a. Instead of looking at how the domestic makeup of states affects the international system, second image reversed looks at how the international system may shape domestic institutions i. Peter Gourevitch ii. How does domestic structure derive from the international system? b. Gourevitch says that the balance of power and the distribution of economic activity/wealth affect domestic institutions i. Most extreme example of international system affecting domestic structure is occupation of one state by another
IAEA - Tierney
a. International Atomic Energy Agency (established 1957 to deal with discovery of nuclear energy and its consequences) b. UN Resolution 687 at the end of the Gulf War (1990-1991) forbid Iraq from developing, possessing or using chemical, biological and nuclear weapons i. The UN Special Commission on weapons (UNSCOM) was created to carry out weapons inspections in Iraq ii. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was to verify the destruction of Iraq's nuclear program c. Characterised as a third party delegation solution to the bargaining problem at the end of the Persian Gulf War i. Mutually agreeable deal not credible, collective UN-sanctioned committees delegated to deal with the issue
Sustainable Development Goals
a. Karr lecture b. Karr used Aiddata to look at SDG funding by donor c. SDGs (new MDGs) address all 3 dimensions of sustainable development (environmental, economic, & social)/ directly reference persons with disabilities. As we move into the SDG era of financing for development, a great deal of emphasis is being placed on the mantra "leave no one behind" d. Investment focus in areas of - social protection systems & measures/ data disaggregated by disability/ technical assistance and partnerships/ education, health, and affordable housing
ICEWS/VIPCAT Forecasts - Shellman readings
a. Large-N analysis used for forecasting (LOTS of data, as opposed to case studies, usually accompanied by a lot of statistical analysis) b. ICEWS: Integrated Crisis Early Warning Sytem i. Forecasting data collection that forecasts national, subnational and international crises c. VIPCAT: Violent Intranational Political Conflict and Terrorism i. Shelman's Lab at W&M that focuses on analysing and collecting data on the strategic behaviour of state and non-state actors in order to forecast
Democratic Peace Theory
a. Lecture: b. Liberalism theory asserting that democracies are less likely to go to war with other democracies, are more likely to win if they do go to war, c. Monadic vs dyadic: mono: democracies are less likely to go to war in general// dyadic: democracies are less likely to fight other democracies
Hollywood Corporatism
a. Lecture: Kitamura?
Culturalism and the Cultural-Turn in the study of diplomatic history.
a. Most recent paradigm shift b. Cultural term - diplomatic history discusses movies in japan (illustration of the term) c. Kitamura lecture and Zeiler, The Diplomatic History of Bandwagon, 2009 d. Culturalism i. challenged framework of international system (aka the nation-state) by looking at identity crossing national boundaries, transnational flows of ideas, values, and people 1. Look at race, gender construction, changing national identities e. Schools of Diplomatic History pre-Culturalism i. Nationalist school (focus on high politics, extension of political history) ii. Realist school (explored questions about national security and national interests, balance of power, attempted to formulate grand startegy) iii. Revisionist school (inspired by marxists, materialist explanation of why america expanded abroad, challenged celebration of american power/expansion) iv. Post-revisionist school (???)
How do Zutshi and Kent use "narrative" in different ways?
a. Narratives of religious/ethnic groups vs a causal story b. Zutshi i. See other Zutshi question for more in depth discussion of her lecture ii. Narratives are also about creating an understanding, but less so about cause and effect 1. Considers history (including mythic/religious history), focuses on human experience, c. Kent i. From his lecture on the relationship between regime change and poor economic performance 1. Argued that recession->regime change->recession gets worse 2. Had to isolate his argument into ii. When creating a model, you're attempting to explain, and understanding requires... 1. Narrative: a story relating cause and effect 2. Models: a formal, testable, representation of a narrative 3. Coherence is valued of completeness in a narrative a. Why he decided to focus on one channel,discipline at a time
Participant Observation
a. One type of data collection method typically used in qualitative research; b. Aim is to gain a close and intimate familiarity with a given group of individuals (such as a religious, occupational, sub cultural group, or a particular community) and their practices through an intensive involvement with people in their cultural environment, usually over an extended period of time. c. Example: Ben-Yishay's experiments studying the DMV in India
MCC Country Scorecards- Parks
a. Part of the Millenium Challenge Corporation/Acount i. Scorecards consolidate an individual country's scores for each of the policy indicators to determine eligibility for assistance programs by using information collected from independent, third-party sources b. Washington's appraisal of another country's governance in public domain - another 'Washington Consensus'
What are the four Sub-Fields of Political Science? (Tierney lecture)
a. Political science is a mutt discipline consisting of four types of models i. Power models - formalized history ii. Political economy models - Econ roots iii. Political sociology models - ideas (constructivism) iv. Political institutions - founding fathers
Presentism and Contextualism
a. Presentism -- the anachronistic introduction of present-day ideas and perspectives into depictions or interpretations of the past. i. Some modern historians seek to avoid presentism in their work because they believe it creates a distorted understanding of their subject matter b. Contextualism -- emphasizes that the context in which an action, utterance, or expression occurs can only be understood relative to that context
Primary vs Secondary sources
a. Primary source - Document/physical object which was written or created during the time under study. Inside view of a particular event (includes documents, creative works or artifacts) b. Secondary source - Interprets and analyzes primary sources. These are one or more steps removed from the event in question (Textbooks, journal articles, historical monographs, commentaries etc)
Is realism the dominant paradigm in IR?
a. Realism is the paradigm against which others are measured and the first true school - but is not the dominant strategy anymore in absolute terms (TRIP data) b. Most recent scholarly work published in top journals does not fall into any specific paradigm
Extra-State War
a. Sarkees et al, Inter-State, Intra-State, and Extra-State Wars, 2003 b. Article about having a more comprehensive view of war (inter-state, extra-state, intra-state) in response to claims that we are in the midst of the "long peace" i. Inter-state ii. Intra-state 1. Civil wars (currently breaking out at all time record rate) 2. Inter-communal wars c. Extra-state i. Formerly were classified as extra-systemic wars by the COW (Correlates of War Project) ii. Includes state vs. independent non-state actor and state vs dependent non-state actor iii. Basically disappeared by end of 20th century because of an increase in sovereign/independent states and a decrease in colonies/dependencies iv. Peaked in 1870-1899 era (imperial wars with non-state actors) 1. Not a lot of emphasis on studying extra-state wars, as a result much of the 19th century is viewed as peaceful 2. In reality was an all time high incidence of extra state wars 3. Perhaps similar to how "peace" is claimed in the present regardless of the unprecedented amounts of civil wars?
credibility (Feldman discussing how economists study conflict)
a. Seen in Prisoner's dilemma - one actor must demonstrate credibility in order to ensure that the other actor will not deviate
TRIP - Teaching, Research, and International Policy
a. Systematically describe the field of IR b. Three main areas of research: journal articles, professor surveys, SNAP poll/survey data i. We explore which regions, issues, paradigms, methods, epistemologies, etc. have been employed over time in IR research by coding articles published in the top 12 IR and political science journals from 1980 to 2011 ii. We measure trends in IR research and teaching with results from an extensive survey of IR professors who teach and/or do research at colleges and universities in 20 different countries. iii. We have supported the collection and analysis of survey data from current and former U.S. policy makers and gathered data on research published in books, rather than just journal articles. Further, TRIP has launched a series of "snap polls" that survey IR scholars on current events shaping international politics and policy. These poll results will be released as soon as the data has been tabulated and reviewed. c. Overall mission is to explore the links between the three components of the project i. How does teaching affect research? How does research inform policy? ii. Tries to bridge the gap between scholarly research and policy in the real world
Agent-Structure Problem (Wendt)
a. The agent structure problem has its origins in two truisms about social life which underlie most social scientific inquiry: i. Human beings and their organizations are powerful actors whose actions help reproduce or transform the societies in which they live. ii. Society is made up of social relationships, which structure the interactions between these purposeful actors b. This suggests that these human agents and social structures are theoretically interdependent or mutually implicating entities i. The properties of agents and social structures are both relevant to social behavior c. The "problem" is that we lack a self-evident way to conceptualize these entities and their relationship (how they interact/interrelate) i. What kind of entities are agents and structures and how are they interrelated
The Cycle of Violence (Feldman lecture)
a. The cycle of violence is the term that international organizations such as the EU and the UN use to describe the Israel-Palestine conflict b. The term reflects the conventional wisdom that the violence between the two countries is tit-for-tat and symmetrical c. Jaeger challenges this notion in his study of the conflict. Jaeger analyzed the number of fatalities as realizations of strategic choices of each side of the conflict. He wanted to know how each side was reacting to violence and whether there was really a cycle of violence. d. The big takeaway from Jaeger's study is his emphasis on the importance of empirical data - he collected data on fatalities, applied a mathematical function assuming that the Israelis responded to deaths on their side, and "let the data speak for itself." e. Jaeger found that Israeli deaths tend to cause Palestinian deaths; but Palestinians are not as predictable i. Several potential explanations for this difference - Palestine's comparatively weaker organizational and military capabilities
Second Image
a. The idea that wars are caused by the domestic makeup of states i. Waltz - The Man, the State, and War b. Bad states make wars, good ones do not i. Democratic peace theory
Aleppo
a. The largest city in Syria that is currently being bombarded by the Syrian government as it houses several rebel groups that oppose the government.
Heckscher-Ohlin Model and factor price convergence
a. The model essentially says that countries will export products that use their abundant and cheap factors of production and import products that use the countries' scarce factors i. Factor endowment as the source of comparative advantage b. Factor price convergence (developed by Samuelson) i. Whichever factor receives the lowest price before two countries integrate economically and effectively become one market will therefore tend to become more expensive relative to other factors in the economy, while those with the highest price will tend to become cheaper. 1. The result was first proven mathematically as an outcome of the Heckscher-Ohlin model assumptions.
Rodrik's Augmented Trilemma (or Trinity)
a. Theory by Dani Rodrik that democracy, global economic integration and national sovereignty/determination are mutually incompatible i. A country can have 2 of these things but not all 3 b. Global economic integration + democracy = global federalism i. having democratically accountable political institutions to deal with issues at the most appropriate level, according to the principle of subsidiarity. Thus local decisions should be taken at local level, national decisions at national level, and global decisions at global level. c. Democracy + national sovereignty = Bretton Woods Compromise (adjustable-peg) i. In the bretton woods system, nations forfeited their ability to adjust their exchange rates to tie their currencies to gold and to the US dollar. Canada, the US, japan, Australia and western europe were a part of this agreement d. Global economic integration + national sovereignty = golden straitjacket i. individual countries must sacrifice some degree of economic sovereignty to global institutions (such as capital markets and multinational corporations)
Epistemology
a. Theory of knowledge, especially with regard to its methods, validity, and scope; b. Investigation of what distinguishes justified belief from opinion
Name one policy consequence of malapportionment
a. Think Maliniak b. A malapportioned political system is one in which the votes of some citizens count more than the votes of others, due to a discrepancy between the share of the population held by electoral districts and the share of legislative seats c. It is considered detrimental to democracy since each vote is not given equal weight based on the "one person, one vote" norm of electoral fairness d. Poorly allocated resources such as environmental spending and other benefits for constituents: misrepresented interests is a direct policy consequence of malapportionment e. Often a result of population shifts from rural to urban (urbanization) f. Leads to overrepresentation of rural populations-
Bridge the Gap
a. Think TRIP and Tierney b. How do we better connect scholars and policymakers c. Familiarity with policymakers and the policymaking process helps researchers ask better questions d. Direct observation of empirical phenomenon of interest enables smarter research design e. Conduct of foreign policy may be more effective if based on data and evidence f. When social scientists seriously engage with policymakers, the likelihood of policy uptake/influence is probably higher g. Also think Alex George (1997): seeks to blend approaches from dif disciplines for more complete understanding of IR & the creation of relevant theory → change the standards of tenure & promotion and teach grad students how to engage the policy world
Collective Principal vs Multiple Principals - Tierney principal agent theory
a. This relates to the principle-agent problem -- occurs when one person or entity (the agent) is able to make decisions on behalf of, or that impact, another person or entity (the principal) b. This dilemma exists in circumstances where the agent is motivated to act in his own best interests, which are contrary to those of the principal i. Collective Principle -- group elects an agent (Presidential elections ii. Multiple principals -- multiple groups elect an agent (UN)
"Knowledge for Statecraft"- Butler
a. What diplomats teach historians: context, demands on time and density of work, personality (role of character, personal alliances, off-line communications), economists v. lawyers, idiosyncrasies of US political system, role of Congress/congressmen, good people do bad things b. What historians teach diplomats: substantive knowledge, analytical tools, research tools, language skills, declarative writing, foreign languages
Norm Adjacency - April 14th reading (no lecture notes) World Bank reform
https://www.wm.edu/offices/itpir/_documents/aiddata/bridging_the_divide_2006.pdf
What are the main Findings of Sarkees et al?
intl. conflict a. Inductive evidence-based approach i. Starts with evidence on the prevalence of war throughout history, then looks for patterns (think of it like how Darwin went on a voyage to observe various species, collected data, then induced the theory of evolution) 1. Approach is informal and replicable b. Questioning research that has pointed to a decline of violence worldwide in the 20th century c. i. But this research counts only inter-state wars, not domestic violence as the result of revolutions d. Collected massive amounts of data on violence that includes domestic violence - found that violence has actually increased through the 20th century
Three Images of International Relations- Waltz
● First Image: Flaw in Human Nature (Individual level of analysis) ○ Pessimists - Morgenthau ○ Optimists - Freud ○ "You're stupid if you're thinking about the individual" ● Second Image: Flaws in society (state level) ○ Its the economy - Lenin (capitalism ■ Reason for war (colonial war in particular) has to do with nature of capitalistic system ○ Type of State - Kant and Wilson (liberalists) autocracy ■ Foreign policy depends on type of state ○ Its the culture ■ States influenced by region ○ Some types of societies are more or less aggressive ● Third Image: Flaws in the int'l system (state system level) ○ Anarchy vs hierarchy (Hobbes) ■ As long as we lack world govt, war will always be a possibility ■ Hierarchy - civil war is less likely ○ Distribution of power (Waltz/Mearsheimer) ■ Is war more/less likely if a system is bipolar? Multipolar? ■ How polarity of state system influences foreign policy ○ Economic interdependence (Rosecrance) ○ All states are constrained by forces in the int'l system
Backlash to integration- Feldman
● Globalization caused increased inequality in "New World"- Americas and Australia ● Price convergence threatened infant industries ● Backlash to integration included higher tariffs/protectionism (ex. Germany's Iron & Rye, U.S. protection of manufacturing industry), immigration restrictions ● First era of globalization undone by protectionism and world wars ● Williamson article - increased economic growth and price convergence, but people are hurt by this and they use policy change to restrict trade (the backlash) ○ There are losers within the economy, politicians reaction
Green Aid vs Brown Aid- Roberts et al, Greening Aid, 2009
● Green aid: globally oriented aid; Brown aid: locally focused ● In the 1990s, Turkey and Egypt received significantly more brown aid, while lower income developing countries received green aid ● Brown aid more likely to be given to countries with geopolitical importance, sound economic policies, strong institutions, or ties to donor country
What is the historical approach good at doing? What is biggest weakness?- from Popper 2/2 notes and Kitamura notes
● Historical approach is good at determining causes of events ● Deep contingency/multicausality and narrative storytelling ● Question-based. Emphasis on empirical evidence: primary and secondary sources ● Weaknesses: overemphasis on documents and underestimates importance of ideology ● Qualitative data, form of inquiry to explain and predict
Inductive vs Deductive approach to building theory
● Inductive: start with data then create theory that is supported by evidence ● Deductive: start with theory and use data to support it
Would Operation Hollywood be viable in Iraq/Afghanistan? Why/Why not?- From Fountains of Culture and Kitamura lecture
● Operation Hollywood promoted Hollywood as a "bunka," or culture. Represented U.S. culture and way of life ● Amplified American social norms: power of men over women, Anglo-saxons over other European ethnicities, whites over people of color, "civilization" over savagery ● After WW2, Japan developed an interest in American culture, people wanted to learn values and lifestyles of "superior" nation. They also shared values (democracy) with U.S. ● Probably would not work in Iraq/Afghanistan: fewer shared values and culture, different lifestyles, and less long-term U.S. occupation. U.S. is not interested in long term diplomatic and economic ties with these countries
What is a Randomized Controlled Trial?- 4/12 randomista debate, revolt of the randomistas
● Randomly allocating experimental units across treatment groups, test with control variable and experimental variable ● Considered by "randomistas" and many development economists to be the best way to conduct foreign aid experiments ● Randomized trials produce results in a short period of time, limit the number of treatments that can be made ● Used to test the effectiveness of social programs- example: placing stickers that urge passengers to speak up against reckless driving on Kenyan minibuses- collected info from insurance companies: 50% fewer serious accidents on buses with stickers
Has the incidence of war increased over 50 years?- Sarkees et al 2003
● Redefined COW war typology ● Decline in Interstate/great power war since ww2, but increase in intrastate and civil wars ● Increase in civil wars since the 1960s, especially internationalized civil wars ● More war deaths in the 1970s than any other decade when not considering ww1/ww2 ● From a realist perspective (like Waltz) yes, incidence of war has decreased when considering interstate wars. However, the data proves otherwise.
Examples of scholarly research that clearly impacted foreign policy
● Shelman, Parks, MCC (stephen hook), Valerie Karr (SDGs), Sarkees and data grubbing- learn about war to inform policy, shelling/nash and game theory/ deduction, MAD premised on game theory model
What are the three types of experiments in the social sciences?
● Surveys: common in Econ, Political Science (ex. TRIP, SSRMC) ● Field experiments: Ariel BenYishay- how to improve foreign aid- look at behavior post treatment ● Lab experiments
Burnside and Dollar- Tierney - Parks/MCC -
● Two economists that created literature that supported the creation of the MCC : foreign aid works better with good domestic institutions ● Led to development of MCC and selectivity of aid allocation
Explain the difference between experimental and observational research- BenYishay
● observational research- all control out of hands of experimenters, instead control in the hands of those observed ● Experimental research- experiments in the real world: must have a control group and experimental group(s) ○ Kinds of experiments we have discussed: surveys (Holmes) , field experiment (Ben Yishay in Indian DMV), lab experiment (reactions to pictures of Hillary and Bernie), participant observation (Quark - conferences on cotton - observed meetings where people were making decision - anthropological method) ● For example, BenYishay's DMV field experiment in Delhi: 1 control group and 2 experimental groups ○ Behavior after treated
