Intelligence Midterm
Espionage Act
1917, often used as the legal basis for leak prosecution
What year was the CIA created?
1947
National Security Act
1947, gave legal basis to the intelligence community and made the intelligence function permanent; created the modern US national security apparatus, NSC, Joint Chiefs, CIA, foreign and domestic intelligence
What year was the NSA created?
1952
Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act
1978, to undertake wiretaps in the US FBI must get court order
Yellow Cake
2003 State of the Union assertion that Iraq attempted to purchase yellow cake uranium from Niger; investigation found no evidence to support hypothesis
Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act
2004, created DNI; national intelligence: foreign, domestic, and homeland security
Moussaoui
9/11 conspirator; student at Minnesota flight school; FBI failed to mount an investigation despite his known jihadist beliefs, increase money in the bank, and suspicious travel record; "don't need to learn how to land a plane"
Bigot Lists
A list of personnel possessing appropriate security clearance and who are cleared to know details of a particular operation
What are vulnerabilities of satellites?
ASATs, Arms Control Treats, US dependency on satellites, debris fields, OSINT, proliferation, predictable movements, unable to defend against an attack
Senate Intelligence Rivalries
ASV v IC (internal)
Armed Services Intelligence Wings
Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Coast Guard
INR
Bureau of Intelligence and Research; cabinet position
What are the problems in counterintelligence?
CI penetration is clandestine, tendency to trust its own people, unwarranted suspicion, friction between CIA and FBI, suspicions may not always be proved
Armed Services Rivalries
CIA
Producers of Finishes / All Source Intelligence
CIA (DA), DIA (DI), INR
NRO Rivalries
CIA (civilian v military)
DNI Rivalries
CIA (for power and access), DOD (for budget and power), director of NCTC (president), state (foreign policy goals and foreign service officers)
FBI Rivalries
CIA (foreign and domestic), State (legal attaches)
NGA Rivalries
CIA (military v civilian)
NSA Rivalries
CIA (military v civilian)
DIA Rivalries
CIA (military v civilian, HUMINT)
DOD Rivals
CIA (military v civilian, power), DNI (power and budget), NSA/NGA (responsibility to defense and DNI)
HUMINT Organizations
CIA, DIA, FBI, DEA
Analysis Organizations
CIA, DIA, FBI, INR, Homeland, Defense, DEA
President's Daily Brief
CIA, DIA, INR, NSA, NGA, and NIC all review articles that will go into the PDB, current intellience
Types of SIGINT Intercepts
COMINT, TELINT, ELINT, MASINT
DOD relationships
Congress (ASC)
DNI Relationships
Congress, President
Which agencies are under the control of Defense?
DIA, NSA, NRO, NGA, armed services
DHS Relationships
DNI
CIA Rivalries
DNI (for power), DOD (military v civilian), DIA (expansion of HUMINT), FBI (foreign and domestic), State (politicization, COSs)
INR Rivalries
DNI, CIA (politicization, COSs)
DHS Rivals
DOD
NSA Relationships
DOD
FBI Relationships
DOJ
If the internet only yields 3-5% of typical OSINT take, where does the rest of it come from?
Deep Web
What are the methods of alternative analysis?
Devil's advocacy, A team/B team, red teams
Phoenix Memo
FBI noticed an inordinate number of individuals of investigative interest attending flight schools in Arizona; memo warned that bin Laden might be orchestrating a project and recommended closer investigation; FBI did not give memo to CIA
Collection Counterintelligence
Gaining information about an opponent's intelligence collection capabilities that may be aimed at one's own country
Curveball
HUMINT source, reliability vouched for by Germans; fabricated WMDs to topple Hussein regime
DEA functions
HUMINT; collection, analysis, and dissemination of drug-related intelligence
Offensive Counterintelligence
Having identified an opponent's efforts against one's own system, trying to manipulate these attacks either by turning the opponent's agents into double agents or by feeding them false information
Aluminum Tubes
Iraq's illegal importation of aluminum tubes; many agencies concluded that tubes were to be used in centrifuges to produce enriched uranium; a few departments disagreed
National Security Letters
Is an administrative subpoena issued by the FBI in authorized national security investigations to protect against international terrorism or clandestine intelligence activities; doesn't require judicial order; gag order
What orbits do satellites fly in?
Low earth orbit, medium earth orbit, geosynchronous orbits, sun-synchronous orbits, highly elliptical orbit
What were the intelligence failures of Iraq?
NIE 2002, collection issues, information reliability, HUMINT credibility, deduction, layering, imagination, confirmation bias, overlearning, clientelism
SIGINT Organizations
NSA, NGA, FBI (DIA)
NGA
National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, part of DOD
NRO
National Reconnaissance Office, part of DOD
What is the usefulness of social media with regards to intelligence?
OSINT investigative tool to build profiles of targets of interest; data dump of information
Collection Disciplines
OSINT, SIGINT, GEOINT, HUMINT, MASINT
DHS intelligence branch
Office of Intelligence and Analysis; includes Coast Guard intelligence
Energy Department Intelligence Branch
Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence
OSS
Office of Strategic Services, created in 1942, director Major General William Donovan, father of CIA and special forces; propaganda, espionage, and subversion
Treasury Department Intelligence Branch
Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence
What are the 3 biggest intelligence products?
PDB, NIE, WIRe
Who controls the largest portion of the intelligence community?
Secretary of Defense
INR Relationships
Secretary of State
Defensive Counterintelligence
Thwarting efforts by hostile intelligence services to penetrate one's service
Graymail
a tactic used by the defense in a spy trial, involving the threat to expose government secrets unless charges against the defendant are dropped
What were the intelligence failures of 9/11?
actionable intelligence, tracking failures, organizational divides, intelligence sharing, wheat and chaff, HUMINT, collection issues, duty to warn, prioritization
Counterintelligence
activities designed to protect one's own intelligence operations from penetration and disruption by hostile services
What are the disadvantages of UAVs?
affected by weather, lower flying drones are susceptible to SAMs, susceptible to being hacked, geofence
Lowest Common Denominator Language
agencies come to a compromise
What is the analytical stovepipe problem?
all-source analytical groups exist to serve specific policymakers; the agencies tend to have a wary view of efforts by officials to deal with them as linked parts of greater analytical whole
What are gains to be made by the successful penetration of a hostile service?
an opponent's HUMINT capabilities and targets, strengths, weaknesses, and techniques; identity of clandestine service officers; opponent's main areas of intelligence interest; current shortfalls; possible internal penetrations; possible intelligence alliances; sudden changes in HUMINT operations
DHS Functions
analyses; charged with delivering intelligence to state, local, and private sector partners
Negation Search
analysts look at past imagery to determine when an activity commenced
On-the-Ground Knowledge
analysts' distance from the subjects being analyzed can be costly in terms of how their policy consumers view the intelligence they receive
Senate Intelligence Relationships
appropriations committees, DOD
Mirror Imaging
assumes that other leaders, states, and groups share motivations or goals similar to those most familiar to the analyst; they're just like us
Moderate Confidence Level
available information is susceptible to multiple interpretations or there may be alternative views or information is credible and plausible but not sufficiently corroborated
What is the importance of alternative analysis?
avoid groupthink, premature closing, or complacency
What issues are associated with briefings?
avoid making guesses, politicization and objectivity, avoid slipping into role of advocacy for policies
Non-Official Cover
avoids overt connection between officer and government but more difficult to keep in contact, full time job to explain presence, no diplomatic status, greater danger
What are some ways in which intelligence agencies reach consensus when developing products together?
back scratching and logrolling, false hostages, lowest common denominator language, footnote wars
Sun-Synchronous Orbit
better for commercial satellites, moves with Earth's rotation, always operate in daylight, easy to track
Brush Pass
brief encounter, where something is passed between a case officer and an agent
What are some problems with collection?
budget and expenses, long lead times, swarmball, stovepipe, competing priorities, vacuum cleaner problem
PRISM
bulk collection of metadata; targets various internet communications of foreigners outside of US; providers handed information to US
Types of GEOINT Imagery
cameras, modern satellites, electro-optical systems, radar imagery, infrared imagery
What are some problems with SIGINT?
capability of NSA and FBI to keep pace with technological changes; quantum cryptography; increasing number of hacking attempts
What are internal indicators of potential leaks?
changes in personal behavior or lifestyle, marital problems, increased use of alcohol or drugs, personal spending habits, large debts
What are the biggest analytical issues that lead to intelligence failures?
cherry picking and connecting the dots
Military IMINT
collected via satellites, UAEs, etc; allows ground force commanders to visualize their area of operations in real time
Stovepipes
collection isn't linear
DOD function
collection, client manager, analyses
Types of Counterintelligence
collection, defensive, offensive
Vacuum Cleaner Problem
collectors sweep up a great deal of information that is often too much for analysts to process
CIA Functions
collects and analyzes foreign intelligence; HUMINT collection; covert action; foreign liaison; producer of all source intelligence
Highly Elliptical Orbit
comes close to Earth over southern hemisphere and much farther away from Earth over northern hemisphere; moves quickly where there are likely to be fewer targets and lingers as it moves across northern hemisphere; broad area collection
COMINT
communications intelligence, interception of communications between two parties, insight into what is being said/planned/considered, provides content and texture
Organizational Barriers to Analysis
competitive analysis, consensus, institutional rivalry, careerism, clientelism, politicization
NIE 2002
concluded that unconventional weapons were most likely present in Iraq; assessment based on several inaccurate sources of information; rushed to completion
What intelligence failure was most prevalent in the lead up to Iraq?
confirmation bias and overcompensation
What new types of technological possibilities are now possible in espionage and intelligence?
contact chaining, locating, touch ID/face ID, commercially available devices can mimic phone base stations and intercept calls, data exhaust
Shutter Control
control over commercial satellites operated by US companies for reasons of national security; US reserves the right to limit collection and dissemination of commercial imagery
Processing and Exploitation
converting technically collected information into intelligence (translate, decrypt, signals translation, humint validation, report formats)
What are important skills for analysts?
cope with wheat v chaff problem, writing clear and concisely, managing their time so analysis is always ready, training about collection systems, objectivity, cultivating intelligence consumer without politicizing intelligence
Collection Expenses
costs always constraints the ability to operate a large number of collection systems at the same time
Counterespionage
countering penetrations of one's service
Five Eyes
countries that have a common heritage and share a great deal of their intelligence; Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and US
How is changing technology making HUMINT more difficult?
covers, facial recognition software, closed-circuit televisions
Worldwide Intelligence Review
current intelligence
What are the benefits of counterespionage?
curtail some of their access without their becoming aware of it; feed them false information; create double agents
How do operations and intelligence functions blur with regards to cyberwarfare?
cyber technology can be used to implement operations/attacks on an enemy or gather intelligence (strategic and tactical)
Senate Armed Services Committee
defense oversight
Intelligence Requirements
defining those policy issues or areas to which intelligence is expected to make a contribution, agenda and priorities
Denial and Deception
denial: targeted nation can use knowledge about collection of an opponent to avoid collection deception: target can use same knowledge to transmit information to a collector
Weaknesses of COMINT
depends on presence of communications that can be intercepted, encryption, false transmissions, stenography, P&E, risk v take, foreign language capabilities
Military MASINT
detecting WMD, monitoring potential weapons development sites, and countering an adversary's tactics of denial and deception
Damage Assessment
determine what intelligence has been compromised
Treasury Department Functions
develops and implements US strategies to combat terrorist financing domestically and internationally; safeguard financial system against illicit use
Imagination in Iraq
didn't consider alternatives
DEA focus
drug cartels and counternarcotics
What are the challenges facing OSINT?
due to its open nature it can facilitate sharing, transparency v national security, organizing information flow
Echo / Circular Reporting
effect of single media story being picked up and repeated by other media sources until the story takes on a much large life of its own, appearing more important than it actually is
Six Disciplines of MASINT
electro-optical, geophysical, materials, nuclear radiation, radar, radio frequency
ELINT / FISINT
electronic intelligence & foreign instrumentation signals intelligence; refers to the pickup of electronic emissions from modern weapons and tracking systems
Termination of Agent
ending the relationship for several reasons (unreliability, loss of access, change in requirements)
What is the role of commercial imagery in GEOINT?
expands collection capability and allows it to reserve more sophisticated imagery capabilities for those areas where they are most needed
What are the disadvantages of MASINT?
expensive; little understood by most users; requires great deal of P&E
Footnote Wars
expression of alternative views at the very bottom of the page
What are the disadvantages of briefings?
extremely limited time; providing necessary context and depth is difficult
What are the advantages of MASINT?
extremely useful for issues such as proliferation; can be done remotely
What are some themes in intelligence failures?
failure to share information, analyze collected material objectively, and failure of the customer to act on intelligence
What is the concern about when to warn?
fear is failing to pick up on indicators and give adequate warning but lowering the threshold and issuing warnings about everything will produce a lulling effect and cheapen its function
Clientelism
flaw that occurs when analysts become so immersed in their subjects, usually after working on an issue for too long that they lose their ability to view issues with the necessary criticality
What are the advantages of UAVs?
fly closer to areas of interest and loiter, don't put pilot lives at risk, produce real time images, conduct long-term surveillance, armed
Military HUMINT
focused on determining capabilities, threat characteristics, vulnerabilities, and intentions of threat and potential forces
DIA Functions
foreign military intelligence, overt and covert HUMINT, analysis
Assessing Agent
gaining agent's confident and assessing their weaknesses and susceptibility to be recruited; asset validation system
Energy Department functions
gathers intelligence for Energy Department; technical analysis of foreign intelligence; assessment of foreign nuclear weapons programs
GEOINT
geospatial intelligence; information about any object that can be observed or reference to the earth and has national security implications
How do crisis-driven requirements favor the ultimate victory of current intelligence needs?
given limited nature of collection and analytical resources, certain issues inevitably receive short shrift or no attention at all; IC has limited analytic resources and capacity to move assets to previously uncovered topics
Competing Priorities
given that the number of collection platforms is limited, policymakers must choose among competing collection requirements
Indications and Warnings
giving policymakers advance warning of significant, usually military, events
What are some advantages of GEOINT?
graphic and compelling; imagery is usually easily understood by policymakers; many targets self-reveal
What are some difficulties with leaks?
hard to pin down the source, legal basis, large amount of classified material, damage assessments, issue of relying on contractors, reliability of US as intelligence partner, leaks v whistle-blowing, responsibility of press
What is the importance of conveying uncertainty?
help bound policymakers uncertainty to give them a sense of different likely outcomes and to help them focus on the most pressing or urgent issues
HUMINT
human intelligence, espionage, spying
Competitive Analysis
idea that is based on the belief that by having analysts in several agencies with different backgrounds and perspectives work on the same issue
Targeting Agent
identifying individuals who have access to the information that the US may desire
Intelligence Process (list)
identifying requirements, collection, processing and exploitation, analysis and production, dissemination, consumption, feedback
What are some disadvantages of GEOINT?
image can be too compelling leading to hasty or ill-formed decisions; intelligence on an image may not be self-evident; it is only a snapshot; states can take steps to deceive collection
What are the advantages of foreign liaison relationships?
increases breadth and depth of available HUMINT, foreign intelligence service has greater familiarity with its own region, government may maintain a different pattern of relations with other states
Low Confidence Level
information is scant, questionable, or fragmented, leading to difficulties making solid analytic inferences; or is based on a source that may be problematic
Actionable Intelligence
information that leads to a tactical response; where, when, how an attack is going to take place
Intelligence Definition
information that meets the stated or understood needs of policymakers and has been collected, processed, and narrowed to meet those needs; processed and vetted
National Intelligence Program
intelligence budget, comprises programs that either transcend the bounds of an agency or are non-defense in nature, DNI is responsible, 2/3 total budget
Hindsight Bias
intelligence can't follow everything but anything can be an intelligence failure
Mindhar and Hazmi
intelligence discovered travel patterns of 2 future hijackers, organizational boundaries prevented piecing together their flight plans, CIA took too long to put them on State Department watch list and didn't notify FBI
Strategic Military Intelligence
intelligence of military policymaking and strategy development; product of gathering information about foreign military capabilities, intentions, plans, dispositions, and equipment (WMDs, proliferation, NIE)
What are the advantages of briefings?
intelligence officer's ability to interact directly with policymaker to get a better idea of their preferences and reactions to intelligence
Decision Advantages
intelligence provides policymakers with an advantage that allows them to be better informed and understand more aspects of an issue
Military Tactical Intelligence
intelligence required to execute local operations or react to an adversary's actions; concerns information about enemy that is designed to help locate enemy and decide which tactics, units, and weapons will most likely contribute to victory (IED)
Opportunity Analysis
intelligence that helps policymakers advance their agenda and makes them actors not reactors; more difficult as it requires positing how foreign leaders will react to policy initiatives
Treasury Department Focus
international economic threats and terrorism and financial intelligence
Priority Creep
issues move up and down in a priority system
High Confidence Level
judgements based on high-quality information or the nature of the issue makes a solid judgment possible
Deduction in Iraq
judgments remained driven by circumstantial evidence of Iraqi behavior given how little direct and erroneous evidence there was and lack of HUMINT
Fallacy of Induction
jumping to conclusions; hasty generalizations
House Intelligence Committee
jurisdiction over the entire NIP, shared jurisdiction with ASC over MIP
What are the issues of UAV operation?
lack of P&E; UAVs as weapons platforms operated by civilians rather than military personnel; vulnerabilities; drone proliferation; permissive environments
What intelligence failure was most prevalent in the lead up to 9/11?
lack of intelligence sharing
Strategic Intelligence
long term thinking, forecast and estimate
Recruiting Agent
making a pitch to them, suggesting a relationship
Handling Agent
managing asset
Activity-Based Intelligence
means intelligence collection based on observed behaviors that are more likely to indicate that an activity of interest is taking place in that location
MASINT
measurement and signatures intelligence; focuses primarily on weapons capabilities and industrial activities; collecting and identifying certain physical signatures or indicators of an activity or process
Information Sources of OSINT
media, public data, professional and academic, commercial imagery, world wide web, overt experts, casual observer
Red Teams
method of alternative analysis, become adversary and get into their heads to see things from their perspective
Devil's Advocacy
method of alternative analysis, develop contrary argument
A Team/B Team
method of alternative analysis, produce conflicting interpretations of evidence
Military Intelligence Program
military intelligence budget, consists of defense and service intelligence programs, Secretary of Defense is responsible, 1/3 of total budget
Cognitive Barriers to Analysis
mirror imaging, confirmation bias, wishful thinking, status quo biases, paradox of expertise, layering, premature closure, fallacy of induction
Intelligence Failures
mismatch between estimates and what later information reveals to have been true
What are the most frequent reasons an agent will betray their country?
money, ideology, compromise, ego (revenge and coercion)
Traffic Analysis
monitoring changes in communications, volume and pattern
NSA Functions
monitors SIGINT; intercepts various types of communications; offense and defense; counterintelligence
What are the advantages of OSINT?
more readily available and extremely useful as a place to start all collection
Third Party Rule
nation receiving foreign liaison intelligence will not share it with a third party without permission
What are the disadvantages of foreign liaison relationships?
never entirely sure of liaison partner's security procedures, different standards of operational limits and acceptable activities
What is an intelligence success?
non-event
Energy Department focus
nuclear weapons, nuclear proliferation, nuclear energy, energy security, radioactive waste
What are the advantages of HUMINT?
offers insights into plans and intentions; relatively inexpensive
What are the advantages of SIGINT?
offers insights into plans and intentions; voluminous material; military targets communicate in regular patterns; done remotely
Sleepers
officers inserted into the target country but spend time integrating themselves and do not become active immediately
False Hostages
one agency stakes out false position to bargain later with trade-offs
OSINT
open source intelligence; collection, processing, analysis, production, classification, and dissemination of information derived from sources and by means openly available to and legally accessible by the public
DNI Functions
oversees, collects, presents, and manages; sets intelligence priorities; ensures use of alternative analysis; briefs president daily
House Intelligence Functions
oversight, budget, broader jurisdiction than Senate
Senate Intelligence Function
oversight, confirmations of DNI and DCIA
Cover Stories
overt lives that give officers a plausible reason for being in that foreign nation
Moles
penetration agent, deep cover agent, long-term spy, recruited before having access to secret information
What is the potential pitfall of consensus driven products?
policymakers prefer consensus views but this might lead to groupthink
What is the primary problem in strategic intelligence?
political disbelief
What are the dangers of alternative analysis?
politicized (cherry-pick), limited resources, institutionalized, greater ambiguity, redundancy
Who are the biggest clients of intelligence?
president and NSC
Clientelism in Iraq
pressure by Bush administration, white house ready to accept convenient findings of IC that ran parallel to its own policy ambitions
Linear Thinking
problem is that analysts need to be constantly on the watch for discontinuities, for nonlinear events and counter complacency
Automatic Change Extraction
process of computers comparing images
Dissemination
process of moving intelligence from producers to consumers
NGA Functions
processes and exploits IMINT and GEOINT; charts and maps physical earth; intelligence agency and combat support agency
INR Functions
producer of all source intelligence; analysis for Secretary of State; collects for itself and others via its embassies
Collection
produces intelligence
USA PATRIOT Act
program monitored metadata of telephone calls
FBI Functions
protects homeland from foreign intelligence operations in US; combines intelligence, CI, and CT; HUMINT; analyses
Military OSINT
provides background cultural or biographical information relevant to a commander's requirements
Intelligence Analysis
provides civil and military policymakers with information directly related to the issues they face and decisions they have to make
What are methods to convey uncertainty?
range of likelihood outcomes (remote/unlikely/probably/almost certainly), confidence levels (high/moderate/low)
USA FREEDOM Act
reaction to Snowden leaks, more oversight by DNI, generally prohibits bulk collection program
Content Analysis
reading messages and analyzing what they mean, relies on regular behavior of those being collected against
Full Motion Video
refers to the long-duration, close-in video that can be collected by UAVs and to capabilities designated to derive as much intelligence as possible from this video
Risk Versus Take
refers to the need to consider the value of intelligence that is going to be collected against the risk of discovery
Swarmballs
refers to the tendency of all collectors to collect on an issue that is deemed important, whether or not they bring anything useful to the table
Layering
refers to the use of judgements or assumptions made in one analysis as the factual basis for judgments in another analysis without also carrying over the uncertainties involved; assumptions on assumptions
What are the problems associated with strategic intelligence?
reflexivity, false alarms, threat fluctuation, deception, doctrinal surprises
National Intelligence Estimates
represents considered opinion of the entire IC and is presented to the president, strategic intelligence
Official Cover
resident spy, hold another government job, easier for agent to maintain contact with superiors, raises risk of being suspected as agent, diplomatic status
Unmasking
revealing US individuals named in surveillance reports
What are the disadvantages of HUMINT?
riskier in terms of lives and political fallout; can't be done remotely; requires more time to acquire and validate sources; fragility of human relationships
What is the importance of managing analysts?
rotating analysts to prevent work from becoming stale and expands their expertise, retention is important
Dead Drop
secret location where materials, info, money can be left for another party to retrieve
Quantum Cryptography
sender will know if a message has been intercepted and it cannot be hacked as the message self-destructs upon identifying an interception attempt
House Armed Services Committee
shared jurisdiction with IC over MIP
What obstacles does new technology post to traditional tradecraft?
sheer volume of information, data is harder to trace, communication apps have their own protocol, encryption is standard
Tactical Intelligence
short term, discrete forms of action
Cognitive Biases
shortcuts to process information
What are the disadvantages of SIGINT?
signals encrypted or encoded; voluminous material; communications silence; expensive
SIGINT
signals intelligence, can be gathered by earth based collectors or satellites, NSA is responsible
Unattended Ground Sensors
small acoustic seismic sensors to detect motion
Senate Intelligence Committee
sole jurisdiction over DNI, CIA, NIC; confirms DNI and DCIA
What is the problem with the center approach?
some issues or some nations do not fit easily into the center construct; centers are focusing more tactically instead of strategically; competitive analysis
Double Agents
spy for multiple organizations but working for the enemy
Geosynchronous Orbits
stay over the same spot on Earth, early warning
What defines Pearl Harbor as an intelligence failure?
strategic surprise; misjudged threat
Big CI
strategy; determine reasons why he or she went after specific information; reveal nature of the penetration and the goals of the nation running the spy
What are external indicators of potential leaks?
sudden loss of spy network overseas, change in military exercise patterns that corresponds to satellite tracks, botched operation or failed espionage meeting
Military Operational Intelligence
support to planning operations at the national or regional level, required for planning and conducting campaigns and major operations to accomplish strategic objectives
Little CI
tactics; specific issues surrounding penetration such as how it happened, how long it has been going on, who is responsible, and what information is compromised
Agent Acquisition Cycle
targeting, assessing, recruiting, handling, termination
Long Lead Times
technical collection systems have to be able to collect desired data, store it, and send it to a location where it can be processed; systems have to be rugged enough to endure difficult conditions; collection satellites are extremely complex to build and launching them takes time
TELINT
telemetry intelligence; refers to the pickup of data relayed by weapons during tests
Confirmation Bias
tendency to process information by looking for or interpreting information that is consistent with one's own beliefs
Why are terrorist targets so difficult to follow?
they shape their capabilities to our vulnerabilities
Analytic Penetration
thinking longer and harder about the issue, perhaps making suppositions of what is most likely
What makes intelligence unique?
time constraints, uncertainty, consequences, problems (secrecy v sharing; accuracy v timeliness; current v long term)
What makes for good intelligence?
timely, tailored, digestible, clear about known and unknown
Why do we have intelligence agencies?
to avoid strategic surprise, to provide long-term expertise, to support the policy process, to maintain the secrecy of information, needs, and methods
What is the aim of the US intelligence community?
to produce all source intelligence
NRO Functions
top builder of technical collection systems; designs, builds, launches, and maintains spy satellites
Back Scratching and Logrolling
trade-off
Analysis and Production
turn intelligence into reports that respond to the needs of the policymakers; from information to intelligence
Low Earth Orbit
used by imagery satellites as this allows a more detailed view of earth
Diplomatic Pouches and Couriers
used to hand carry confidential and sensitive information from country to count, ensures communication is not compromised
Military SIGINT
used to provide early warning of pending enemy attacks or disposition of forces
Military Intelligence
uses information collection and analysis to provide guidance and direction to support frontline troops, importance of timeliness and accuracy
Geofence
virtual barrier to prevent drone flights within a certain area via GPS, radio frequencies, or other technologies; "jam" signaling in certain areas
What are the disadvantages of OSINT?
voluminous and less likely to offer insights available from clandestine collection
Walk-Ins
volunteer HUMINT sources
Dangles
walk-ins as a means of entrapment
Tyranny of the Ad Hocs
when an unexpected issue arises, some policymakers and officers exert pressure to give the new issue priority high enough to compete with other high priorities; loss of control over priorities
Analyst Fungibility
when requirements change or when crises break out analysts must be shifted to areas of greater need but they may not have the proper training or expertise in that area
What is the difficulty of HUMINT covers?
within HUMINT there are trade-offs between ease of command and control, access, degree of cover, and relative exposure
Confirmation Bias in Iraq
yellow cake, aluminum tubes, negative evidence presented ignored, Dr. Peter