International Organizations Week 10
"TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS" Garrett Hardin in the journal Science1968
A self-interested maximizer sees an opportunity to increase his or her herd without limit, receive 100 percent of the income, and share only a fraction of the cost. - "Each man is locked into a system that compels him to increase his herd without limit- in a world that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons." (Hardin 1968, Science, p.1244)
Ecological footprint (EF)
a measure of how much productive land and water an individual, a city, a country (state), or humanity requires to produce all the resources it consumes and to absorb all the waste it generates, using prevailing technology. This land could be anywhere in the world. The Ecological Footprint is measured in 'global hectares' (gha)
Water-Food-Energy-climate-security nexus -WEF Report 2011
" In many places around the world we have consistently under-priced water, wasting and over using it as a result. We have depleted stocks of ground water at the expense of our future water needs" "In effect, we have enjoyed a series of regional water 'bubbles' to support economic growth over the past 50 years or so, especially in agriculture" "Trading patterns are out of synch with water resource levels- three of the worlds top ten food exporters are water scarce countries" - In the coming decades several significant global trends will intensify demand for food, water, and energy resources Population growth- expected to increase from current 7 billion to 8 billion in the next 20 years, largely in the developing world. Economic growth- driven largely by emerging markets. Urbanisation- more than half the world's population now lives in urban environments. What this means? Increased food demand and changing diets Increased demand for energy Accelerating rates of water use - Food-Growing population, prosperity and urbanisation will demand more quantities and different types of food-estimates are that farmers will need to increase production by 70-100% and reduce postharvest loss Energy-The IEA estimates increased world energy demand by at least 40% by 2030, McKinsey and Co estimate that 77% of the requisite energy structure has yet to be built Water-As we get richer, we get thirstier- McKinley estimates the world could face a shortfall of up 40% by 2030 (more than UNESCO's estimates -30%) . Many countries extracting groundwater faster than it can be replenished (Mexico by 20%, China by 25%, and India by 56%). If current trends continue, over 2/3rds of the worlds population will live in areas of high water stress by 2030
MDG Report Card 2010
"Global poverty has been halved five years ahead of the 2015 timeframe. Ninety per cent of children in developing regions now enjoy primary education, and disparities between boys and girls in enrolment have narrowed. Remarkable gains have also been made in the fight against malaria and tuberculosis, along with improvements in all health indicators. The likelihood of a child dying before age five has been nearly cut in half over the last two decades. That means that about 17,000 children are saved every day. We also met the target of halving the proportion of people who lack access to improved sources of water." Ban Ki-Moon Secretary-General, United Nations
Unsustainable ecological impacts Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
"The current extinction rate is now approaching 1,000 times the background rate and may climb to 10,000 times the background rate during the (next) century, if present trends continue. At this rate, one-third to two-thirds of all species of plants, animals, and other organisms would be lost during the second half of the 21stt century, a loss that would easily equal those of past extinctions." ( source -WWF ) -e.g. akin to the meteorite strike that took out the dinosaurs and let mammals become dominant! A huge report known as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, started in 2000, was released in March 2005. Amongst many warnings for humankind, it noted that there has been a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth, with some 10-30% of the mammal, bird and amphibian species currently threatened with extinction, all attributed to human actions.... (anthropogenic ecological footprints, consumption, emissions and waste)
Undp Human development reports (2013)
"The rise of the South is radically reshaping the world of the 21st century, with developing nations driving economic growth, lifting hundreds of millions of people from poverty, and propelling billions more into a new global middle class" said the United Nations Development Programme's (UNDP) 2013 Human Development Report. "The rise of the South is unprecedented in its speed and scale," the 2013 Report said. "Never in history have the living conditions and prospects of so many people changed so dramatically and so fast." These achievements, it says, are largely attributable to sustained investment in education, health care and social programmes, and open engagement with an increasingly interconnected world.
ENERGY; IEA REPORT 2008
"The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically, socially. But that can - and must - be altered; there's still time to change the road we're on. " "It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution. " (IEA Report: "Time is Running Out"2008)
'Our Common Future' (the Brundtlandt Report) - Three key elements
1. Focus on how to sustain a broad process of positive social change called "development"; development understood as an advance in the material and moral circumstances of humanity 2. Employed the idea of meeting needs to characterise the just aspirations of all peoples i) the worlds poor ii) future generations 3. Invoked an idea of environmental limits as a potentially serious obstacle to continued social advance
"TRAGEDY OF THE global COMMONS" Our Planet Earth
1.2-1.4 billion people currently approx in the developed world; for this group, affluence has been on a steady rise, and conditions, life-expectancy etc, never better but, global total population passed 7billiion in late 2011 and we're now well on the way to 8 billion - Homo Sapiens dominating the planet and reshaping it. But 5-6 billion+ now in the less developed, & 'transition economies' BRICS economies now have expanding MC and resource demand- 500m new MC in China alone consuming roughly the equivalent of Japan's total resource demand Then there's the world' poor people:_ of these 2 billion approx live on less than USD$2 per day, 1 billion less than $1. The steady rise in global population plus expectations brought on by increasing globalization and development is placing a huge strain on our planet's resources. It is draining them at an increasing rate, and is seriously degrading our environment to the point where survivability of life as we know it is seriously in some doubt in the long term.
Rio 1992-the 'Earth Summit'-Agenda 21
178 countries, sought to establish an international consensus around sustainable development - endorsed an action plan-Agenda 21- identified environmental threats and defined the roles of various actors to realise common goals UN Convention on Biodiversity UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) UN Statement of Forests Principles However while it established an 'action plan'- given its context and proposed solutions- still not a really sustainable solution?
Beyond Rio 1992
Agenda 21 doesn't really address the fundamental issues of equity, particularly in an intergenerational context. (unsustainable growth) Free trade development hasn't alleviated relative poverty (though some progress on absolute poverty), nor decreased levels of environmental degradation. Still the problem of the global commons being massively 'overgrazed'. Also still the problem of limits to growth, the planet simply can't sustain 7+ billion people producing and consuming at levels comparable to the level of most current developed nations in the long-term.(OECD nations and now BRIICS)
Rio 2012
Another aspirational document, "The Future We Want" · launching a process to establish sustainable development goals (SDGs) · detailing how the green economy can be used as a tool to achieve sustainable development; · strengthening the UN Environment Programme and establishing a new forum for sustainable development; · promoting corporate sustainability reporting measures; · taking steps to go beyond GDP to assess the well‐being of a country; · developing a strategy for sustainable development financing; · adopting a framework for tackling sustainable consumption and production; · focusing on improving gender equality; · stressing the need to engage civil society and incorporate science into policy; and · recognizing the importance of voluntary commitments on sustainable development.
Unsustainable Development Waste-sink capacity & consumption paradigms
Globalization of waste-"with more waste being generated, more must be disposed of; it must go somewhere. As more and more waste is disposed the waste-sink capacity- that is the capacity of the earth, both socially and environmentally to absorb this growing mountain of waste- is being consumed. There is little if any frontier for waste left on the planet. Most of the waste sink capacity in the rich industrialised nations has been used up. With the ecological implications better understood, few communities are prepared to accept them" (Jennifer Clapp, The distancing of waste, overconsumption in a global economy, 2002, in Conca, Princen & Maniates, 2002)
Un Millennium Development Goals 2000-2015
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development
Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable development- 2002
In its own words the UN stated "By any account, the Johannesburg Summit has laid the groundwork and paved the way for action". Yet among all the targets, timetables and commitments that were agreed upon at Johannesburg, there were no silver bullet solutions to aid the fight against poverty and a continually deteriorating natural environment. In fact, there was no magic and no miracle— only the realization that practical and sustained steps were needed to address many of the world's most pressing problems" (UN Johannesburg Conference Website- Press Release 25th September 2002)
Towards Genuinely SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT?
Key focuses of genuinely sustainable development are the processes rather than particular institutions, practices and environments. Key point? It still involves a development dynamic and growth, so doesn't entirely undermine the existent global trade and development momentum.(Fair Trade regimes an example of alternatives) But it does imply a total transformation of both production and consumption paradigms! Divisions between developed and developing states critical and must be resolved in order for genuinely sustainable outcomes Growth and consumption paradigms need to be 'redirected' with focus on 'renewables' and reducing ecological impacts globally Failure to achieve these will significantly increase the risk of resource conflicts and potential wars in the future
Johannesburg 2002 (Rio +10)
Kofi Annan introduced his 'WEHAB' agenda prior to the conference-this identified water, energy, health, agriculture and biodiversity, as 'five specific areas where concrete results are both essential and achievable' -he wanted a bold Global partnership deal. Two Types of competing Agendas at Johannesburg 2002 Type I to be negotiated by all states during the preparatory committee process Type I outcomes were multilateral, consensually negotiated texts- eventual form was the 'Johannesburg Plan of Implementation' 170 paragraph blueprint for the implementation of Agenda 21 (so more of the same!) Johannesburg Political Declaration (drafted largely by the Sth African Government) as a compromise- calling on corporations to 'enhance cooperate environmental and social responsibility and accountability' ( many had wanted mandatory targets) Type II consisted of a series of commitments, targets and partnerships made by individual governments or groups of governments, at the regional or inter-regional level.
"THE LIMITS TO GROWTH"-CLUB OF ROME (Meadows et al. 1972)
Long term exponential growth impacts easy to overlook as tendency/presumption to see growth as linear. Club of Rome's "Limits to Growth" postulated in 1970s that continued exponential growth in population and demand on natural resources to fuel ever increasing industrial and agricultural output would place unsustainable demand on natural resources, as well as the pollution produced placing severe strain on the natural environment, and would result in severe constraints on all natural resources by 2050-70. - 100 year supply of non-renewable resource. Current level of demand= 100yrs, but with just a 5% increase in demand per year (exponential growth)= 36years, 1000yr pool, then 5%pa= 79years Even with a 'mother lode' 10,000 yrs supply, with 5%pa growth in demand= then just 125 years supply
SUSTAINABILITY
Most commonly cited definition';- Sustainable Practices in Development - "actions that meet the needs of current populations without endangering the prospects and livelihoods of future generations". The World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), Our Common Future, 1987 (Sometimes referred to as the 'Brundtlandt' Commission')
In conclusion: BAN KI MOON UN Secretary General visits Sydney University (2011)
Mr Ban emphasised the importance of joint action by the international community to tackle the issues facing the world. "These 21st-century challenges are too big for any country or region to solve alone," he told the audience. "The future belongs to those who act together to advance our common values." Noting that the world was expecting the birth of its seven billionth citizen in late 2011, Mr Ban described the need for sustainable development as the UN's most pressing agenda item in the 21st century. There was a need, he said, to 'join the dots' and establish links between challenges such as climate change and water scarcity, energy shortages, global health issues, food insecurity and the empowerment of women.
Rio 1992- Substance or Ideological Rhetoric?
One of the main focuses was poverty (and development) and categories of environmental degradation generated by it- so Agenda 21 set to alleviate poverty through the promotion of economic growth via free trade and further capitalist development. (neo-liberal policy settings) General consensus at Rio that environmental protection was a luxury that can best be afforded once relative affluence attained- so free trade was to be promoted Renewed emphasis on technological and administrative innovation.
'Geopolitics' of Sustainable Development in international negotiations
Poverty and environment collective security issues Poverty and inequality breed conflict Poverty key issue in the emerging architecture of international organisation since end of WWII and its sequel, the Cold War. Relative poverty, particularly in terms of trade and future development has been one of the key issues generating tensions between Nth-Sth in terms of geopolitics and international organisation (developed and developing worlds-Nth-Sth) In the early 1990's Nth.'s growing concerns about environmental degradation met a resentful Sth. wanting to develop and improve their living standards in negotiations regarding sustainable frameworks for development
Sustainable Development Goals 2015-2030
Preamble-"This Agenda is a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity. It also seeks to strengthen universal peace in larger freedom. We recognise that eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions, including extreme poverty, is the greatest global challenge and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development. All countries and all stakeholders, acting in collaborative partnership, will implement this plan. We are resolved to free the human race from the tyranny of poverty and want and to heal and secure our planet. We are determined to take the bold and transformative steps which are urgently needed to shift the world onto a sustainable and resilient path". Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts* Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development
World bank report 2016
SMH Tuesday May 5th 2016: As India, the world's second-most populous country, reels from an intense drought, the World Bank has released a new report finding that the most severe impact of a changing climate will be the effect on water supplies. The most startling finding? The High and Dry: Climate Change, Water and the Economy report suggests that a lack of water could knock down economic growth in some parts of the world by as much as 6 percent of GDP by the year 2050, "sending them into sustained negative growth." Regions facing this risk - which can at least partly be averted by better water management - include not only much of Africa as expected but also India, China and the Middle East, according to the report
Key IO Developments and frameworks
Stockholm 1972- The United Nations 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment (note the human bit) WCED 1983-7 "Our Common Future" Brundtlandt Report (1987) UN: Rio Earth Summit 1992 - Agenda 21, UN Millennium Development Goals 2000 UN: Johannesburg 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development UN Rio +20 2012 Conference on Sustainable Development UN Sustainable Development Goals 2015 (and from '92 Rio Earth Summit) UNFCCC 1992: Annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs) Kyoto Protocols agreed in 1997, (applied initially2008-2012, now extended until 2020) Copenhagen 2009 (sets 2C 'aspirational' target re anthropogenic climate change impacts) Cancun 2010, Durban 2011 & Doha 2012 (Global framework to be in place by 2020, largely finalised in Paris 2015 )
TOWARDS GENUINELY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT? Green Economics
Sustainability does not mean zero growth. Rather, a sustainable society would be interested in qualitative development, not physical expansion. It would use material growth as a considered tool, not a perpetual mandate. Neither for nor against growth, it would begin to discriminate among kinds of growth and purposes for growth. It would ask what the growth is for, and who would benefit, and what it would cost, and how long it would last, and whether the growth could be accommodated by the resources and waste sinks of the earth (planet). A sustainable society would also not paralyze into permanence the current inequitable patterns of distribution. For both practical and moral reasons, a sustainable society must provide sufficiency and security for all. A sustainable society would not be a society of despondency and stagnation, unemployment and bankruptcy that current systems experience when their growth is interrupted. A deliberate transition to sustainability would take place slowly enough, and with enough forewarning, so that people and businesses could find their places in the new 'Green economy'.
Sustainable Development
Sustainable Practices in Development - "actions that meet the needs of current populations without endangering the prospects and livelihoods of future generations". - The World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), Our Common Future, 1987 (Sometimes referred to as the 'Brundtlandt' Commission')
Human Development Index (HDI)
The human development index was developed in 1990 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for the annual Human Development Report. HDI was included as a measure of social development and a widely used measure of human well-being. It is a composite index comprising four sub-indicators: life expectancy at birth, adult literacy rate, gross school enrolment ratio, GDP per capita.
Biocapacity (BC)
the supply side, the productive capacity of the biosphere and its ability to provide a flux of biological resources and services (such as water, food security and the absorption of waste) to humanity.
WWF -Living Blue Planet Report 2015
The populations of some marine species have declined by 49 per cent in just four decades, according to one of the most extensive surveys of sea-life ever compiled. The Living Blue Planet Report, released by World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in collaboration with the Zoological Society of London, documents the extraordinary losses, which occurred from 1970 to 2012. Alarmingly, some fish species were found to have declined by almost 75 per cent. The authors of the report attribute the dramatic population drops to human-driven climate change as well as to habitat loss, overexploitation and pollution. Yet another key finding from the report is that three-quarters of the world's coral reefs are currently threatened. At current projected levels of warming and ocean acidification, all coral reefs are projected to be lost by the year 2050.
GLOBAL POPULATION: THE BOTTOM LINE!?
UN has produced population projections to 2100 Three scenarios-2000 base line of just over 6 billion -fertility rate 2.9 1) Low scenario predicts 7.5 billion in 2050 (already 7 billion + as of 2012), but then a decline to 5.1 billion in 2100 -fertility rate 1.56 2) Medium scenario (most demographers regard this as the most accurate/likely), 9.0 billion in 2050. 9.5 in 2100 -fertility rate 2.03 3) High scenario 11 billion in 2050, 16 billion in 2100- fertility rate 2.51 (still less than rate as of 2000-2.9) In 2011-12 global population passed 7 billion
Water-Food-Energy-climate-security nexus - Ban Ki Moon
Unlike energy water has no substitutes or alternatives " As our global economy grows, so will its thirst....water security is not an issue of rich or poor, North or South...and yet there is still enough water for all of us to use if we keep it clean, use it more wisely, and share it fairly. Governments must engage -and lead. But we also need private enterprise" -Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary-General -speech at WEF meeting Jan 2008
Water Security-UN
Water security is defined as the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability. (UN-Water, 2013)
GENUINE PROGRESS INDICATORS? A 'steering logic'?
What Does Genuine Progress Indicator - GPI Mean? A metric used to measure the economic growth of a country. It is often considered as a replacement to the more well known gross domestic product (GDP) economic indicator. The GPI indicator takes everything the GDP uses into account, but also adds other figures that represent the cost of the negative effects related to economic activity: externalities-costs not factored into the market price (such as the costs of ozone depletion in the 70s' and 80's and cost of resource depletion now, or the classic case of CO2/GHG emissions among others). The GPI nets the positive and negative results of economic growth to examine whether or not it has benefited people overall.
The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)
developed to compare the environmental sustainability of countries. It is now incorporated in the Yale EPI indicies. The 2005 ESI, released at the World Economic Forum in 2005 , ranked 146 countries on 21 factors covering natural resource endowments, past and present pollution levels, environmental management efforts, contributions to protection of the global commons, and capacity to improve environmental performance over time.
The Environmental Performance Index (EPI)
first published in 2002; EPI was later used to supplement the environmental targets of the UN Millennium Development Goals. In brief, it indicates the performance of a country's policies. The latest EPI release (Yale, 2016) ranks 180 countries in ten categories according to 25 measures including environmental health, air quality, water resource management, biodiversity and habitat, forestry, fisheries, agriculture and climate change
Earth Overshoot Day
marking the date when humanity had exhausted nature's budget for the year. For the rest of that year and into 2001, we maintained our ecological deficit by drawing down local resource stocks and accumulating carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We are operating in 'overshoot'
Ecological deficit
the amount by which the Ecological Footprint of a population exceeds the biological capacity of the space available to that population. The national ecological deficit measures the amount by which the country's footprint (plus the country's share of biodiversity and capacity responsibility) exceeds the ecological capacity of that nation. Estimates we started to enter 'overshoot' (globally) where ecological demands exceeded biocapacity in the 1970's. **** To achieve sustainability we need to have a footprint to capacity ratio of no more than 1 PLANET'S ABILITY TO SUPPORT US, so to achieve long term sustainability we now need a ratio <1. In 2003 the ratio was 1.25, in 2011 1.5 approx., in 2017 1.7
