Natural Disaster Final
What is a life cycle assessment?
"cradle to grave" costs for different items
How much do mass wasting events cost us each year?
$1 billion in damages
What percentage of the Forest Service budget goes towards fighting fires
$3 billion; 50% of the Forest Service budget
Why don't we call prescribed burns controlled burns anymore, like we used to?
(hopefully) controlled and confines fires set to reduce fuel and/or improve habitat and forest health. Must be carefully planned (adequate staffing) and weather condition must be appropriate
Know the processes that can trigger slope failure (we mentioned several).
* Seismic events (earthquakes) * Volcanic events (can trigger lahars by melting snow) * Heavy rainfall * Snowmelt * Undercutting
Is material more rapidly oxidized during flaming combustion or smouldering combustion?
***Flaming combustion: rapid oxidation processes, flames, pyrolysis of woody material Smouldering combustion: carbon and ash blanket new fuel, inhibiting flames. Produces charcoal, glows
What have we observed at Mauna Loa, Hawaii?
- atmospheric carbon dioxide - annual cycle: growth of forrests in spring/summer, release CO2 again in winter - also trend of increasing by year
What do hotshot fire fighters do, as part of their job (what are they building on the ground)?
- build fire breaks; cut down to bare ground so when the fire reaches the barrier it stops
What is "enteric fermentation" and what percent of methane does it contribute to the United State's annual emissions?
- cow farts - 25% of methane
What (or whom) is driving climate change?
- human activity is the primary cause for the warming - changes occur in synchrony w/ human industrialization and population growth
How does water content impact sediment cohesion? How does this change as we go from adding a little to a lot of water, starting with totally dry material?
- some water increases cohesion (surface tension holds grains together) -Too much water pushes grains apart (loss of frictional contact).
What are Milankovitch cycles? You should know the names of the three different cycles.
- variations of Earth's orbit/tilt to sun >> eccentricity (path of orbit) >> tilt (angle) >> precession (wobble)
What has the United States done, in terms of how we have treated wildfires over the years? How has this impacted fuel availability, as well as the likelihood of fires becoming crown fires?
- we used to have the motto of prevent forest fires - but our policy of fire suppression has led to more intense fires - tree ring chronologies and burn scars reveal a history of more frequent but much smaller fires in the past
Know how driving forces vs. resisting forces are related to slope failure. Also, know the main driving and resisting forces.
-Driving force=gravity -Resisting forces= Friction and Cohesion -If Gravity> Friction and Cohesion then Slope moves
Know our different kinds of slope failure as well as how they are defined ("Mass wasting events that you should know"-know the underlined terms and be able to match terms and descriptions, including expanded details from lecture slides).
-Rock falls (free falling rocks) -Rock slides (rocks slide along define plane) -Creep (gradual) -Flows: material behaves as a fluid. Includes earth flows, debris flows, avalanches -Landslides: material slides along defined plane
What can we directly measure in ice cores?
-We can directly measure CO2 and methane concentration in the ice - oxygen isotopes: temperature when snow fell - tiny bubbles: exactly what the atmosphere was like when that layer formed
Generally, what signs might we see that could indicate that a slope could be likely to fail ("Predicting slope failure")?
-past failures -steep slopes, changes in slope, -Potential triggers (rainfall, earthquakes, volcanic events
Know the different global climate drivers (you should be able to match terms to their descriptions).
1. Changes in incoming solar insolation: Early sun 30% less luminous! 2. Configuration of continents: Continents over poles also drive cooling; used to be connected; opening of Great Passage (Antarctica is now separated from the other continents, no way to get warm water to it) 3. Changes in albedo (reflectivity): --low albedo: Darker colors are more absorbent --higher albedo: more reflective, so more energy sent back to space -- soil: 0.17 -- fresh snow: 0.8 - 0.9 4. Changes in atmospheric compositions (reservoirs): GHGs & CO2 5. Milankovitch cycles
How do fires transfer energy? Be able to match terms and definitions here.
1. Conduction: heat passes through material (ex. Logs, branches), drives off moisture 2. Convection: heated air gases rise (density driven), pulls in air at lower levels 3. Radiation: radiated heat through space
How can we prevent mass wasting? You should know how the different processes work, and how they relate to things like slope cohesion, water content, and angle of repose.
1. Hazard mapping and zoning restrictions 2. Revegetation (holds slopes together with plants) 3. Regrading: stabilize slopes (get closer to angle of repose; adding dirt in front of house) 4. Reinforcement (rock bolts, rock nets; increases mechanical strength of slope) 5. Improved drainage (prevent water from pooling at impermeable layer; add drain)
Know the different local climate drivers (you should be able to match terms to their descriptions). For example, for "latitude", you should know that this determines the amount of solar energy received, in watts per m2.
1. Latitude (incoming solar insolation): Latitude determines incoming solar insolation (solar energy received in W/m^2) 2. Proximity to large bodies of water: Stabilizes climate/Warm currents can heat high latitudes 3. Elevation: Pressure decreases with increasing elevation/ altitude: air loses heat because air is not a good conductor >>Higher altitudes have particles that are farther apart 4. Topography: Evaporation, wind blows into air onto land, up mountain, condensation as air cools, precipitation, cold dry air descends on other side. (deserts) >>windward side: gets precipitation, where winds come off water >> leeward side: where cold, dry air descends deserts form here
You should be able to match the three phases of a wildfire to their descriptions/definitions.
1. Preignition: Fuel is brought to a temperature and water content favoring ignition through two processes: ** Preheating: fuel loses water, other volatile chemical compounds ** Pyrolysis: process that chemically degrade fuel (large molecules break down) 2. Combustion: Preignition absorbs energy, then we get ignition and combustion ** In combustion phase, exothermic reactions release energy as heat and light ** These processes drive preignition of surrounding materials 3. Extinction: combustion, including smoldering, (not enough/fuel/oxygen to sustain combustion)
How did climate change impact Iowa's economy in 2011 and 2012?
2011: floods on Missouri caused $85 million in direct damages (property damage and crop loss) 2012: drought closed locks on the Mississippi, barges ran around: cost region $275 million
How long has it taken us to increase in population size from 1 billion people to where we are now, at approximately 7.7 billion?
214 years (since 1804)
What percentage of the global energy budget does the US use annually? What percentage of the world's population lives within the US?
28.5 trillion kwh/year ~ 97 quads divided by world total of 511 quads = 19% of the worlds energy. 4% of the worlds population lives in the US
How much water do you need each day, to survive? How much (if you're in the US) do you use, and where does that go? You should know the big water sink that I pointed out in class.
5 liters (1.3 gallons) of water is needed, but use 900x what we need in a day (4455 L); 20% gets flushed down the toilet. Shower, faucets, leaks, and clothing washers.
What percent of greenhouse gas emissions are absorbed by oceans and forests each year?
55%: oceans and forests 45%: remains in atmosphere
What percentage of the global oceans have we impacted? What percentage of fisheries stocks are collapsed or overexploited?
58% of different fishing stocks collapsed or were over exploited we've impacted every part of the ocean
How does a rock slide differ from a rock fall?
A rock fall is faster than a rock slide. the rocks literally free fall A rock slide maintains contact with the ground and slides as a whole unit on the surface
You should be familiar with the "good" and the "bad" of wildfires.
Bad: * Property destruction * Increased landslide risk (devegetation) * Increased flood risk (hydrophobic soil layers) * Release of soot/ash/aerosols into atmosphere Good: * Some plants need fire to release seeds * Increases soil nutrient content * Successional communities * Bad for ticks
What is a carrying capacity (concept) and an ecological footprint?
Carrying capacity: How many people can our world support in a renewable and efficient way (humans are not living within the carrying capacity of the planet Ecological footprint: measures human consumption in terms of the biologically productive land needed to provide the resources and absorb the wastes of the average global citizen.
How has climate change impacted Iowa's weather, and if temperatures increase 1 degrees C, how will this impact corn yields?
Climate change has given Iowa 13% more moisture in the summer and 8% more precipitation 1-degree Celsius increase: 15% decreased corn yields
What is sustainability, broadly defined?
Development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs Earth has a finite amount of resources. At some point we will use up something that we need.
Which event occurs more rapidly: an earth flow or a debris flow? Which has a larger average particle size?
Earth flows are slow, debris flow and avalanche are fast! debris flow has a larger average particle size
How has the length of the fire season changed over the past several decades?
Fire seasons are now on average 78 days longer than they were in 1970.
What are the major greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere?
GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE TROPOSPHERE - water vapor - CO2 (carbon dioxide) - CH4 (methane) - NO2 (nitrous oxide) - Fluorinated gases
How do we predict how climate will change with increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere?
Generalized circulation models or global climate models
How does the greenhouse effect work, and how does this relate to greenhouse gases?
Greenhouse effect: -Solar radiation passes through space -some incoming solar radiation is reflected by the atmosphere and the surface of the earth, but most incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the earths surface -the earth then re-emits infrared radiation, which either passes through the atmosphere or is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules. -Some of this re-emitted infrared radiation warms the earth relates to greenhouse gases because without it the average temperature is -18°C (-8°F), no liquid water, and no life
Be able to recognize the three different ways that we classify fires. Which is the most difficult type of fire to stop?
Ground fires (subsurface: burn organics in soil, mostly smouldering combustion) * Surface fires (above ground, burn grass, shrubs. Can move rapidly) * Crown fires (burning in crowns of trees, chaparral.) these are nearly impossible to stop
What 3 factors are used to classify mass wasting events?
HOW material moves (falls vs. flows vs. creeps vs. slides) * TYPE of material (solid- big chunks of rocks vs. unconsolidated- sediment, loose rocks) * RATE of movement (fast vs. slow)
What engineering mistake made the Vaiont Dam landslide in 1963 more likely (what factor in terms of the surrounding slopes did engineers know about, but think that they could control)?
Hydroelectric power Block slid into reservoir, creating flooding and wave * 270 million cubic meters of rock entered dam at speeds of 110 km/hr Dam overtopped by wall of water >250 meters high
Does any place in the US experience water scarcity?
In the south west
With the higher emissions scenario, how much warmer will Iowa be by 2100? You should know the degrees F value for the worst case scenario.
Lower emissions Scenario- 2040-2059 average --> 2-4 degrees warmer *Higher emissions scenario - 2080-2099 --> 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer
What is the defining characteristic of a slide?
Material moves as cohesive whole along defined plane
What is a mass wasting event (definition)?
Occurs when force of gravity exceeds strength of materials due to weathering and rock fragmentation aka Downward movement of material (rocks, soil, etc.) under influence of gravity * Can be slow, fast, catastrophic * Important natural part of erosion and landscape formation
What is the deadliest landslide in US history, excluding landslides related to volcanic events, earthquakes and dam failures? Why did this event occur (what set the stage for this slide), and was there any preceding indicators that this event might be likely to occur?
Oso (Steelhead) landslide on March 22nd, 2014 Weakly consolidated sediments, soil saturation from heavy rainfall + groundwater influx -4 years of heavy rain fall - knew failure would happen--> didn't when? & how big?
What is the angle of repose? How does grain size, grain shape and water content impact angle of repose?
Particles dropped in pile(any size) create an angle of repose based on size and angularity (function of friction) -Grain size (finer= shallower slope) -Angularity of grains (more angular = steeper slope) -Water content (it depends...)
How does physical water scarcity differ from economic water scarcity, and how many people experience each of these conditions?
Physical water scarcity: countries/entities withdraw >75% river flow for agriculture, industry, and domestic purposes Economic scarcity: enough surface water, but problems with corruption/ poverty and can not access good clean water
Be able to recognize examples of negative and positive feedback cycles.
Positive feedback cycles amplify warming and cooling trends *When ice caps grow, it increases albedo --> positive feedback cycle Negative feedback cycles provide checks and balances on warming and cooling *Co2 increases the growth of forests --> negative feedback cycle
What kind of a reaction occurs during a fire?
Rapid, high temperature oxidation reaction (combustion) release heat, light and other products Combustion results in fast breakdown of organic material Exothermic
Be able to distinguish between renewable and non-renewable resources.
Renewable resources: replenished or generated on a human time scare (wood, solar, biomass, hydro) Nonrenewable resources: only can be replenished on a geologic time scale
What are the different faunal changes associated and anticipated (and in many cases, already observed) as a result of climate change?
Shifts in ranges of disease vectors: (animals that carry things that you can catch) --> spread of lime disease >>Lone star tick: bite can lead to life threatening meat allergy Extinction of less-resistant species: it will be hard to adapt Extinction of species at the Poles: there's no where to go Species with high extinction risks/that people love unreservedly: Adelie penguins >>Loss of sea ice = less krill = starving penguins = less successful breeding and child rearing Bufo periglenes, the golden toad is extinct! Interaction between climate change and fungal infections Pizzly/Grolar bears. Polar bears and moving south and running into grizzly bears
What process is creep related to, and how might you recognize a hillside that was experiencing this phenomenon?
Slow, continuous movement of material down slope. Frequently related to Freeze thaw cycles. 1. Freeze Thaw cycles 2. slope zig zag 3. slope moving --Drunken Trees --Slow processes
What is an avalanche?
Sudden movement of rock, snow and ice down the mountain
What is the deadliest wildfire in California state history?
The Camp Fire
What is dendrochronology, and what do we use it to learn about? What do we need (at a regional scale) for this to work?
The science that uses tree rings dated to their exact year of formation to analyze climate You need seasonal variation for this to work!
What two factors contribute to sea level rise, and how much is sea level anticipated to rise (worst case scenario) by 2100?
Thermal expansion and melting glaciers anticipated to rise 6.2 feet/ 1.89 meters
What do scientists predict will happen to snake size as a result of a warming climate?
Titanoboa (giant snake, how warm the temp is How big the snake is!) Maximum snake body size correlates positively with temperature they will just keep getting bigger
Approximately how much of the world's total energy budget is used by the US, every year?
We are 5% of worlds population but using 20% of worlds budget
How does climate differ from weather?
Weather: minutes-to-months changes in the atmosphere Climate: the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. Averages of Temperature, precipitation, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, etc.
Over the past several decades, how have wildfires in the United States changed in terms of both intensity and size
Wildfires are increasing in intensity and size
Are we at risk for mass wasting anywhere in Iowa?
Yes, intermediate risk in Southwest Iowa
How much has climate warmed since the 1880s, globally?
average global temp has risen about .85 degree Celsius since the 1880s
What does it mean to be a poikilotherm?
body temperature is dependent on ambient (air) temperature. And size is dependent on this, too.
What is the distinguishing characteristic of a flow? What are the differences between earthflows, debris flows, and avalanches?
flow: Material moves and behaves like a fluid. speed variable. Earthflow: *Fine grained *You can probably outrun *Moves like a fluid Debris flow: *Fluid movement of rock fragments supported by a muddy matrix (<50% fine grained material) *Tends to flow rapidly - up to 100 km/hr. avalanche: *very fast downhill movement of soil, snow, or rock, usually in mountainous or volcanic regions *Speed results from high air contents and steep slops
What is crossdating?
how we get exact years by matching up many different samples
From the standpoint of greenhouse gases, what does the process of combustion do?
it releases fossil fuels//sets our trapped organic material free
Is a high albedo surface more or less reflective than a low albedo surface?
more reflective
What are the three legs of the fire triangle?
oxygen, heat, fuel
How does carbon dioxide correlate with temperature (or not correlate with temperature) in ice core records?
positive correlation
What occurs during pyrolysis, and which phase of a wildfire does it happen during?
process that chemically degrade fuel (large molecules break down) in the preignition stage
Why do we observe ocean acidification?
refers to a reduction in the pH of the ocean over an extended period of time, caused primarily by uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. Pteropod (sea butterfly), shells dissolve with acidification
What areas of the globe are heating most rapidly, and how does this relate to sea level rise?
the poles are heating more rapidly meaning ocean water (usually insulated by ice) warms more in summer and releases more heat to the atmosphere in the winter
What do packrats build, and what kinds of information can we get from studying these deposits?
they build middens: Will put anything and everything into midden-plant material, bones, shells, reptile scares then pee on it, which cements it together can study changes in animal species abundance and changes in plant communities, which reflect climate
What kinds of weather patterns and conditions make an area likely to have a severe wildfire? This explanation should include general trends between having a wet vs. dry climate as well as topography and winds.
topography- In U.S., south-facing slopes are warm and dry, lower moisture content favors combustion. In mountains areas wind moves upslope. Fires on steep slopes preheat fuel upslope, increasing rate of fire movement. Preheating adjacent fuels (fire is going to take off) weather-Dominant influence on wildfires. Large fires particularly common following drought, which reduces fuel moisture content. Wind influence spread, intensity and form of wildfire. Wind direction (fire is going to take off) fuel- layer of fuel affects what kind of fire it is (ground, surface, crown)
What is the Anthropocene?
viewed as the period during which human activity has been the dominant influence on climate and the environment.
How might climate change impact weather (hurricane intensity, atmospheric water vapor, droughts)?
warmer sea surface temperature: more powerful hurricanes 1 degree Fahrenheit increase: 4% more atmospheric water droughts: Increased severity and duration of droughts
If you do the math, can 10% of the population choosing to live more sustainably in a few areas actually make a measurable difference?
yes
