Physics 14 Test 4
The goal of the Paris Agreement was "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below ____ above pre-industrial levels."
2 Deg C
Change in Global Surface Air Temperature
From (1986- 2005) to (2081-2100) RCP 2.6 to RCP 8.5
What is the most important greenhouse gas?
H2O is the dominant greenhouse gas
Greenhouse effect
H2O vapor and CO2 absorb and block infrared light since the earth's radiation is in infrared, the atmosphere is very good at letting in the visible sun's light and absorbing the outgoing infrared light! Warm below, cool above(two box model)
Which of the following greenhouse gases has the greatest global warming potential?
Halocarbons(like CFC's)
Why do people contend climate change so much?
Human beings and the natural world are ona collision course and if enviormental damage was not stppped, our future was at risk
Ice-core measurements can measure temperature records to
Hundreds of Thousands of Years
Hurricanes
Temperature increases will affects the winds, increases the devasting effects of a catostrophic events.
The effects of climate change are being seen today.
True
What kind of model shows the change between atmpospheric temperature and surface temperature?
Two-box model
What two countries contribute 40% of all carbon dioxide emissions right now?
U.S and China
Why are citites warmer than surrounding rural land?
Use of energy, and albedo change(darker surfaces like pavement)
The Greenhouse Effect goes back to how long in being developed
at least the early 19th century
Why is the upper atmosphere cooling as the surface warms in the greehouse effect?
because, as we showed in the two box model, the upper atmosphere cools as infrared opacity moves up.
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage would remove carbon from the atmosphere by using
biofuels and capturing carbon from burning
The text calls the greenhouse effect as better described as a
blanket effect
When CO2 disolves in the ocean it forms
carbonic acid
What is not a type of climate forcing?
climate sensitivity
Greenhouse gasses make the atmosphere largely opaque to what kind of light?
infrared keeps it warm because some gets let out while a lot gets trapped in the atmosphere due to greenhouse gasses
What in aviation could cause a small but potentially important climatic effect?
jet contrails
Carbon is stored in
land-surface biota, the atmosphere, and the ocean surface
Two-dimensional climate models, model the two dimensions of
latitude and altitude: A two-dimensional climate model that accounts for the varying intensity of solar radiation from equator to poles.
Wedge approach divide future increases into wedges that have units of
mass
Warmer temperatures globally means ______ water in the atmosphere.
more
If more aerosol particulate matter was in the atmosphere globally, would this be a positive or negative forcing?
negative forcing
More water in the atmosphere means ______ rain
varied from place to place Models show rain will -increase of 10% to 40% at high latitudes -decrease of 30% in mid latitudes and dry tropical regions
What event can lead to an overall increase in the level of aerosol particulate matter in the global atmosphere?
volcanic eruptions
What is the dominant climate forcing amoung natural and anthropogenic forcings?
well-mixed greenhouse gases
If you leave the heater on in your house, the temperature
will go up and stop at a steady point
LED lights use about ________ percentage of energy of incandescents
15%
What year was the the UNFCCC signed?
1992
Volcanoes provide a method for climate models to
validate their predictions
What is the amount of energy imbalance coming to the surface of the Earth today?
0.6 W/m^2
The overall temperature increase since 1850 has been about ______
1 Deg Celcius
In the past century, approximately how much has the Earth warmed on average?
1 deg Celcius
Three Key factors Indicating humans are responsible
1.The basic physics of the importance of CO2in increasing planet surface temperatures(Venus) 2. Climate models in computer simulations show that taking out the anthropogenic (human-caused) effect cannot reproduce the increase in temperature in the past several decades with natural causes alone. 3. Unique patterns or "fingerprints" of anthropogenic climate change: •Regional patterns of temperature change: e.g., increase in warming over land & regional precipitation changes •Cooling of the stratosphere: required by the blanket effect in Ch. 13
What period of time does it take, approxiately, to remove carbon from the atmosphere if we stopped fossil fuel and other forms of introduction of carbon into the atmposphere?
100's to 1000's of years
The upper rang of estimates of how long it wpuld take to bring anthropogenic(human made) carbon back into equilibrium with the carbon cycle is
1000 Years
If we increase spatial resolution in a 3 dimensional model by a factor of 10, how much more computation is needed?
1000= 10^3 because of the 3 dimensions
When was the warmest year?
2016
When was it expected to go above 400 ppm in this plot, in any scenario?
2020
How much would CCS addition to coal-fired power plants increase the fuel consumption for those plants?
24%- 40%
If you increase the spatial resolution of a climate model by a factor of 3, you would increase the computational resources by a factor of
27 (N^d) N- number of subdivisions d-number of dimessions
What was the pre-industrial level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? (ppm=parts per million)
280 ppm
About how big is the terrestrial carbon sink per year?
3 Gt
Level of carbon emision in 2015
32.1 GT of CO2 is emmitted: 8.77 Gt of Carbon
What value of ppm of CO2 are many climate scientists and activists saying is the maximum safe value for atmosphere CO2?
350ppm
Even if all the commitments called INDCs proposed for the Paris Agreement were implemented effectively, what would the warming of Earth be, according to some studies?
3Deg Celcius
If we increase spatial resolution in a 2 dimesnional model by a factor of 2, how much more computation is needed?
4 times as much
Sources of Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases
4/5 of the CO2 comes from fossil fuel combustion, the land use changes are la
What was the current level of carbon dioxide in the atomosphere?
410 ppm
By what percentage has carbon increased in the atmosphere?
45%
About how much carbon is stored in terrestrial organisms?
550 Gt
If we continue our current rate of increase in CO2 concentration, what will the concentration of CO2 be in the atmosphere at the year 2100?
570
About how much colder, on average was it during the Ice Age?
6 Deg Celcius
If we increase spatial resolution in a 3 dimensional model by a factor of 2, how much more computation is needed?
8 times as much = 2^3 because of the dimensions N^d
Hurricanes From Increased Sea Surface temperatures
9 of the top 10 Most damaging hurricanes were since 2004
What fraction of the atmosphere on Venus is CO2?
96%
Greenhouse Effect: " Just a theory"?
A scientific theory is not a guess -many people in the US use th word theory multiple uses to implicate that scientific theories are just guesses A scientific theory is a set of key ideas and hypothesis that have undergones rigourous tsting with a diversee set of obesrvations and data -are solidly established and coherent bodies of knowledge that have undergone all conceived obeservational tests
if we get to a level of 750 ppm, what is the increase in temperature predicted?
About 3Deg Celcius
What is the method of measuring long term temperature changes as they are imprinted on the Earth's surface, propagating down?
Borehole temperature
What chemical has the largest Global Warming potential amoung those discussed in the text?
CF4
RCP represents
CO2 emission, and CO2 concentration
What makes the mass of Carbon and CO2 different?
CO2 is carbon plus two Oxygens 12 units of mass of carbon for every 44 units of C02
Which of the following is(are a greeenhouse gas?
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
The Carbon Cycle
Carbon reservoirs are in gigatonnes(Gt) of carbon; flows(arrows) are in gigatonnes per year Carbon is stored in the Atmosphere, Surface biota and Soils and the Ocean surface. This carbon cycles back and froth between the atmosphere and ohter reservoirs Fossile fuel combustion and deforestation are the domininant anthropogenic factors upsetting the carbon cycle.
What other indicators of global warming exist?
Dissappearance of artic sea ice Retreat of glaciers Ice Sheet Instability Stronger Hurricanes
The Greenhouse Term
E of atmosphere * (Delta)* ((T of surface of earth^4)- (T of atmosphere^4)) Eof Atmosphere is allways less than or equal to 1 and Ta < Ts called the greenhouse term because it keeps you from radiating your heat away -you get greater greenhouse effect from a cooler atmosphere as eofa gets bigger or higher in atmosphere
Coupling ocean and atmospheric models are called
Earth System models
Mercury during the day is 840 deg F, and at night it dips to -275deg F. Why is it so different on Earth?
Earth has an atmosphere
How warmer is earth due to the greenhouse effect?
Earth is warmer by 33deg C due to the greenhouse effect
Zero dimensional Energy-balance model
Energy balance between in and out is: S/4 = eDelta*T^4 Factor of 4 is from the fact that Earth radiates from whole surface • S/4 = 341 W/m2 if Earth absorbed all energy • But it does not, 30% is reflected directly back into space, mostly from clouds • Left hand side is then reduced to 239 W/m2 • Taking e = 1 for emissivity • T 4 = (S/4)/(eσ) ... plugging in, and taking 4th root • T = 255 K or -18°C or 0°F
Why has it warmed more in the north pole than in mid-latitudes and the equator?
Ice-albedo feedback(positive)
What is arrow one in the two box model?
Incident solar energy
What is wrong with the data from the Daily Show graph in terms of drawing conclusions on climate change?
Its only of 6 months, while climate change is over longer time
Is linear extrapolation sufficient between temperature and carbon dioxide?
NO
Can models of the Earth's temperature reproduce the increase without anthropogenic (human) forcings?
NO :O
What complicates prediction of temperature change due to carbon dioxide forcings?
Nonlinear climate sensitivity and feedback
Magnitude of CO2 emissions
Note that current levels of emissions C of 8.77 Gt/yr (32.1 Gt of CO2) amount to 1020 tons of CO2 per second!
Which of the following are possible ways of reducing carbon emission?
Nuclear power, solar power, wind power, and carbon-capture coal power
What is another form of anthropogenic(human) forcing?
Ozone, aerosols, and land use
How to minimize Antrhopogenic Climate Change?
Policy changes must happen -Geoengineering: global-scale engineering projects to alter the Earth's energy balance and counter anthropogenic global warming -Unknown ability to accurately change things and other enviormental impacts Stop putting Co2 in the Atmosphere by: 1. Keep burning fossil fuels,
What if we don't stop CO2 emissions?
Projected global temperature increases for CO2stabilization at five different concentrations. •The dots indicate when stable CO2concentrations are reached. •Results after 2100 (dashed curves) are increasingly uncertain.
How do planets like the Earth lose energy?
Radiation
Radiation
Radiation heat transfer is from electromagnetic radiation • Nothing to do with radioactivity here • Radiation increases with fourth power of temperature • Proportional to emissivity of object: e = emissivity • Good emissivity also means good absorption: black is good absorber and emitter • Stefan-Boltzmann Law for radiation: P= e(delta)AT^4 Radiation • P is power, in watts, radiated • σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant, e is emissivity • A is object's surface area, T is temperature
Prof Abazajian
Science is The only robust method humans have of predicting the future
What is an example of validating climate models?
Testing them to real date such as temperature vs. altitude The solid curve is the observed temperature, and the dashed curves show two model results.
What do we call the proess of carbon moving through systems, including the atmposphere, land, ocean,.
The Carbon Cycle
What is albedo?
The fraction of sunlight that is reflected form a planet(or other object)
Model Resolution
The more boxes, the finer the spatial resolution, and the more realistic •High resolution means more things to keep track of, and therefore more computing power •One can test if higher resolution convergesto a verified solution •Subgrid parameterizationtakes into account that which is below the grid scale: cities, cloud formation, local geography •Often a hierarchy of models are used, so that the lower resolution and even two box models can give answer to simple changes so that full 3D time-dependent models do not need to be run
Extreme weather is more likely because of what aspect of this plot?
The probablility of high temperatures is bigger by a factor of several
Sea level rise is occuring due to
Theremal expansion, and land ice melting
What is climate forcing?
an upset to the Earth's surface energy flow balance
What terrestrial planet has the largest greenhouse effect?
Venus
Which planet has the strongest greenhouse effect?
Venus
One dimensional climate models use a single dimension increasing in
altitude of atmosphere
Response to forcing is called
climate sensitivity Two types: -Transient responses: the response immediately to the forcing Equilibrium response: the response after the forcing is done ex: the equilibrium response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial levels of 280 ppm (parts per million) the climate sensitivity is calculated to be between 2°C to 4.5°C
An example of negative feedback includes
cloud formation with increase temperature
Ocean circulation effects from melting ice may slow or stop the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean. This would make Europe_______.
colder
Climatologists have which piece(s) of evidence that indicate humans are to blame for influencing the climate since the mid to late 20th century?
computer model experiments, statistical inference, and past climate reconstructions
How does a house lose energy ?
conduction
So far, global carbon dioxide emissions are
continuing to increase
The two-box climate model shows the Earth surface is warmer due to the greenhouse effect because the atmosphere is
cooler than the Earth's surface
Ocean Acidification
coral reefs are very sensitive to ocean acidity, temperature, traditional pollutants
How is geoengineering aimed to counteract climate change?
deliberately applying counter-forcings to CO2
A linear response to a forcing means that if the forcing is doubled, the temperature rise is
doubled
Temperature of the Earth changes
due to both natural and human forcings only the modes that include anthropogenic effects can account for the temperature rise observed in recent decades natural forces are volcanism and solar variability
What is it called when the heat loss rate equals the heating rate?
energy balance
What is another way to reduce emission on a global scale?
energy efficiency improvement requirements
The zero-dimensional energy-balance model balances
energy input from the sun with thermal emission
How do we know what we know?(Science)
ex: The histroy of the Universe, Earth, Life? 1. Pure knowledge(math and theory) plus previous experience/ data 2. Hypothesis for future experiments/experince /data 3. Date taking(more obeservation and experiment NOT anecdotal) 4. If data veriffies theory, bolsters it. 5. If date contradicts theory, modify or abandon that theory Science is the only robust method humans have of predictiong the future, or it provides a tested knowledge of our universe
Temperature increases have been largest over
high northern latitudes
Which of the following do not, in general, make cities have higher temperatures on average?
human body temperature
What two nonfossil sources produce a significant amount of power in our energy supply?
hydropower and nuclear power
positive feedback
ice-albedo feedback: a temperature increase reslutis in melting sea ice exposing dark seawater Earth's albedo is reduced, resulting in more solar energy absoption whihc in turn exacerbates the initial temperature increase.
RCP 8.5 is the model where carbon is emitted
in a business-as-usual model
One place thought to store carbon is
in porous rock capped with impermeable rock
The increase formation of clouds with warmer climates is a _______ feedback effect.
negative which is what is assciated with clouds because an increase in Earth's temperature results in increased evaporation and therefore more clouds
Change in species ranges due to warming will make species in the norther hemisphere move _______, while in the southern hemisphere they will move ______.
north; south
Which of the following is not a carbon sink in the carbon cycle?
not the Atmosphere ex of carbon sinks in the carbon cycle are: -atmosphere -photosynthesis -ocean -soils -sediment
Which of the following is not a carbon reservoir in the carbon cycle?
not the Ozone Layer ex of carbon reservoirs in the carbon cycle are: -plants -ocean -soil -animals
Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Effects
numbers on RCP's give the approximate radiative forcing due to all industiral-era forcing agents -current
A linear response to a forcing means that if the forcing is doubled, the temperature rise is
unknown, but not linear
Which of the following is a consequence of climate change?
ocean acidification, ocean circulation, species range, sea-level rise, and more
In the carbon cycle, reservoirs are
parts of the earth where carbon is stored
Carbon sinks
photosynthetic activity takes in 3 Gt per year more than in animal respiration and decay put in naturally: this is a carbon sink of some CO2 -Ocean Carbon Sink removes 2 to 3 Gt per year more than put out by the ocean. -Overall, only about 1/2 of the CO2 put in by humans remains in the atmoshpere
What is the rate of energy hitting the Earth from the Sun, givven the Solar Constant (S)hitting the earth (S= Power Per unit Area) and the cross sectional area of the Earth (piR^2)
piR(of earth)^2*S
The formation of ice with colder climates is called a _____ feedback effect.
positive
The melting of ice with warmer climates is a ________ feedback effect.
positive
Increase in carbon dioxide would be a
positive forcing
Increase in solar radiance would be a
positive forcing
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is possible for
power plants
Increasing energy efficiency
reduces carbon emissions
Species Ranges
species will move their patterns in response to climate - on average, species have moved their ranges, in the Northern Hemisphere, northward by 6 km per decade -for alpine species, its been 6m upwards in elevation
What is easier to measure?
temperature change> rather than absolute temperature
Climate forcing means
the energy imbalance that causes climate change
The following are true about the warmest years on record
the five warmest years in the global record have all come in the 2010s the 10 warmest years on record have all come since 1998 the 20 warmest years on record have all come since 1995
Representative Concentration Pathways In an RCP8.5 scenario, what does 8.5 stand for?
the forcing change of 8.5W/m^2
Albedo is
the fraction of sunlight that's reflected from the Earth
Lets say your thermostat breaks and the heater stays on continuously, why does this equation mean that the house gets to an equilibrium temperature and the temperature does not go up indifinately ? mcDelta(T) =
the heat lose rate Q goes up to match the heater's output, because Change in Temperature goes up
For planets in the solar system, the dominant energy source is
the sun
Whats the best single nonfossil energy source to switch to?
there isn't one source :(
Ocean Circulation
thermohaline circulation of Gulf Stream may get extra fresh water from rainfall and icemelt, stop flowing and stop keeping Europe warm.
General circulation climate models are a form of
three dimensional climate models
America is facing a Threat
to lives, property and prosperity of 125 billion from huricanes
Negative feedback
• Because clouds are highly reflective, they increase the planet's albedo. • More reflected sunlight means less solar energy is absorbed by the Earth system. • The final effect, therefore, is to moderate the initial temperature increase. This is only one of many cloud feedbacks. The feedback works in both directions, so the same diagram applies if the increases and decreases are interchanged.
