PLSC 337 midterm + final

Walt's key idea

"ISIS is a "small and under resourced revolutionary movement too weak to pose a significant security threat, except to the unfortunate people under its control."

Definition of foreign policy

"The goals that a state's official seek to attain abroad, the values that give rise to those objectives, and the means or instruments used to pursue them" * NOT just military

Paris commune

* 1870 war, ended the second French empire, third republic ushered in * Siege in Paris preventing supplies from coming in, people leaving Paris * Germans and French negotiated, French ended up surrendering, Germans didn't destroy France, let French survive * Paris left in charge of the defense force, government of France elsewhere (left Paris during fighting) * All these people pissed about surrender -- created their own city state of Paris, called themselves the commune, barricaded themselves in * Main army elsewhere, government couldn't do much * Heavily influenced by anarchist, Marxist ideals * Running their own government, kind of worked... set up committees and passed some laws (separation of church and state, rent forgiveness from the period of the siege, prohibition of child labor, etc) * French government surrounded Paris, wanted to take Paris back, commune wouldn't give it up, lasted about three months before it descended into violence * French army came in, killed the commune leaders, raided churches, etc * Approx 1000 French soldiers killed, 10,000 in the city killed (civilians etc) * Very little desire for anarchist desire in France after the Paris Commune BUT OUTSIDE of France had the opposite effect -- the people's ability to make France bend to its own will, the power of the people 1871 CE -- when it dissolved into violence

How Al Qaeda was combatted (Cronin 2015)

* 75% of Al Qaeda's leaders were killed through raids and armed drones (effective bc leaders were hiding in rural areas) --> VS ISIS's leaders cluster in urban areas, complex admin structure that won't cripple the org structure * cut off Al Qaeda's funding (money laundering, funds under the cover of charitable giving) --> VS ISIS doesn't need outside funding -- holds territory that allows it to build a self-sustaining financial model (oil assets in Eastern Syria) * Al Qaeda had little commonality with Muslim militant groups all over the world, US exploited this vulnerability --> VS too late to use this with ISIS bc well-trained, capable former Iraqi military leaders who know US techniques and habits, ISIS armed with US supplies

Anarchist terrorism and the age of mass journalism

* Acts of violence as the product of conspiracies * Inability of the police to prevent individuals/groups from violence created an atmosphere of panic in Spain * Paris as the best-documented case of mass hysteria -- public flooded the police with reports of suspected bombs/bombings * Police beat a 17 y/o after he stabbed a man into a false confession saying he was an anarchist ***Newspaper with columns on violence fueled fear * The Age of Anarchist Terrorism coincided with the Age of Mass Journalism * Prominent in France, Spain, Italy, Britain, US; throughout the western world * Slower to arrive in Italy and Spain due to high illiteracy rates * Term "mass media" becoming applicable during the end of the 1800s * The "advertisement" of anarchism/terrorism thought to lead to imitation Media talked about violence so much because the violence was now targeting civilians -- promoting sensationalized violence (allowed newspapers to make money off of fear, sensationalism → "bomb panic" in Paris lasted for two years, until 1894 Paris portrayed as under siege) * MUCKRACKING * Printing press cheaper so lots of newspapers → journalists both looking for and creating drama * Newspapers in competition -- market very saturated; combined with increase in transnational terrorism involving citizens gave newspapers opportunity

Why take credit for an attack you did not commit?

* Credit without the work, not wasting resources/intelligence * Branding (putting their name out there) * Instilling fear without having to get your hands dirty Why did the Islamic State claim the Las Vegas shooter? * No evidence for it... * Could have wanted to scare and confuse us * Like the idea of someone killing Americans * Could have indicated the IS was panicking (losing territory -- might have wanted to show they were still powerful) ISIS claims suspected NY truck attacker as its "soldier" Yes, driver had internet history showing interest/research in ISIS, but never had contact → inspired by it, not directly connected to it Lone wolfs, copycats -- idea that ISIS can "inspire" People that are tangentially related

Impacts of Oklahoma City bombing in the last 25 years

* Directly after Oklahoma there was a decrease in far-right ideology / extreme violence * Today it's less about government and more about ethnicity → Radical right VS extreme right

Drone strike pros

* Drone casualties have a ratio of 1:3 for civilian to militant deaths, which is lower than it would be for other forms of strikes according to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism * Drones can mitigate collateral damage BUT these numbers can quickly change depending on the strike / target (they could be targeting buildings etc not just people) * Drone strikes might actually lead to lower violence in the targeted region -- these numbers could change over time, not necessarily true all the time * Byman argues drones may violate state sovereignty of a region, but to a lesser degree than sending in troops

How to stop terrorists basically (Abrahms)

* Identify the communities that are prone to terrorism (Immigrant communities, lower income, etc) * Focus attention on these areas, find through largely normal law enforcement techniques who is associated with extremist ideologies, then do social network analysis * Social network analysis: find the person known to be a terrorist, find all people they have contact with, use that list as the "high priorities," increase the assimilation and social service programs to those individuals *** If there's a way to disrupt the social bond within the organization the pyramid will collapse

Offensive containment

* Keeping the opposing force within the already prescribed borders, ideally make the territory smaller and smaller * Use combination of limited military tactics, diplomatic strategies/foreign policy to minimize ISIS's capabilities * It's not just military → diplomacy! * US needs to use its military and communicate/coordinate with everyone in that region to make sure offensive containment works (Cronin 2015 recommendation for how to combat ISIS)

Insurgency VS terrorism

* Level of capability (material capability, control of territory) * Perception ("freedom fighters") --> if your group can be perceived as a freedom fighter, you can rise to the level of an insurgency Insurgents can use terrorist tactics, but not all terrorists will rise to insurgent levels Becomes more of insurgency when you can amass resources, GET TERRITORY, amass people; have more support and mobilization of the population; insurgency characterized by the support and mobilization of a significant proportion of the population***** Crucial difference: scope and scale of the violence

Anarchist wave of terrorism -- assassinations

* Paris Commune ended 1871 * age of assassinations --> anarchist movement morphed (big idea = targeted violence) 1878 two attempted assassinations of Wilhelm I 1881 bombing of Tsar Alexander II 1898 stabbing of Empress Elisabeth of Austria 1900 assassination of Umberto I of Italy 1901 assassination of president McKinley BUT many incidences of violence connected with anarchist movement loosely...Wave of anarchist terror during the late 1800s = combination of the acts of ideologically committed anarchists and the violent deeds of a miscellany of perpetrators who shared dubious or no connections with anarchism The Haymarket Riot

Paris -- great bomb panic

* Ravachol (violent anarchist) arrested late 1880s, but didn't stop the violence -- thought they had stopped the violence/terrorist plot but the network was expansive * Until 1894 Paris was portrayed as under siege * Waves of attacks designed to promote fear among the public * Ravachol found guilty and executed BUT ended up being kind of like a martyr for anarchists * Media talked about violence so much because the violence was now targeting civilians -- promoting sensationalized violence (allowed newspapers to make money off of fear, sensationalism → "bomb panic" lasted for two years)

Goals of terrorist groups (Kydd)

* Regime change (throwing over the current government/state) * Territorial change * Policy change * Social control * Status quo maintenance * Aum Shinrikyo = regime change * ISIS = primarily territorial change goal * Al Qaeda = policy change (wanted the US to withdraw troops from the Middle East, but also = step towards territorial change for them... policy change often doesn't stand alone as a goal) * KKK = social control * anti-abortion groups = social control * FARC (Colombia) = status quo maintenance * Protestant paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland (PRI, IRA) = status quo maintenance

Drone strike cons

* Sending drones to target criminals across borders sets a dangerous precedent for other countries to do the same --> Russia uses them pretty consistently in Syria --> The more the US uses it the more it becomes normalized * Terrorists becoming more and more adept at using drone strikes as a recruitment strategy → targeting Muslims, saying the US is so evil/doesn't care that they won't even send their own people --> Alienating governments and people * Make decisions too easy → idea of the expanding battlefield --> But does it really make them too easy? There is still a significant chain of command --> But not putting OUR lives at risk so decisions are less personal, easier to agree to * If executed improperly there is a lot more to lose --> Yemen attack US claimed as success but actually claimed many Yemen civilian deaths, US called out by human rights org (?), ended retreating from its initial statement --> Halfhearted attempt to cover it up, claim ignorance Can't get data/info on terrorists → destroys everything

Features of religious terrorist groups

* Sense of crisis * Fear of globalism and borderlessness * Offshoots of mainstream religions * Not new religions being created * Combines political and religious agendas * Propelled into action

What terrorism is NOT, according to Hoffman

* Standard criminality * Organized revolutionary warfare * Lone "lunatics" -- it is not egotistical * State-based (Hoffman says state-based would be warfare; against state or their own people etc)

Last 10 years in China with Uyghurs

* TIP becomes more active, commit dozens more attacks (targeting members of the state, stabbing attacks at railway stations/markets) 2009 changes China 2009, 2014 * Dude (Xing Ping??) becomes leader of Communist Party (essentially dictator of China) -- he's very fearful of ISIS activity in Europe etc, doesn't want that to happen in China, for him biggest threat is what's happening in Western China → Uyghur, TIP are both Muslim (TIP as Islamic extremism) → Xing Ping (??) uses this for anti-terrorism efforts → targeting Muslims * China as a surveillance state

Impact of Oklahoma City bombing on law enforcement

* Terrorism became a domestic threat, in addition to foreign threat * Legislation became stronger -- people who clearly were planning for a violent attack could be detained under terrorist statutes much more easily * Became harder to build bombs etc -- harder to get that material * Federal guidelines for how victims/families were provided restitution * Also given the right to attend the trials and give statements (in federal courts)

Democracy does NOT hinder terrorism

* Terrorist groups are 3x more likely to be found in democracies * Terrorism occurs more often * Increased civil liberties means terrorist groups can survive longer * Publics more susceptible to coercion Class ideas * Democracy can be perceived as inherently western, which would lead to feelings of peoples' identities, cultures, and sovereignty being challenged (MI) * Freedom of press could actually allow terrorist groups to work together under the guise of free speech

Is there an appropriate international response to China's "re-education camps" ?

* The UN is toothless.... But we also built this international system where 7 countries have a universal vetro → Russia and China included in this, and they will never agree to punishment against themselves * China has reached a point where they don't need foreign aid so can't really restrict them that way... * The amount of reliance on China, too, complicates this -- US reliance for mass production stuff * The more media coverage this get, the more pressure that's going to be put on China -- China very sensitive to negative press, especially since it's trying to play a significant role in the international community

Democracy DOES hinder terrorism

* There are more political opportunities * Elections provide nonviolent conflict resolution * Transparency of justice system / bureaucracy means less injustice Class ideas * Provide more economic opportunity * Provides civil outlet for political grievances, rather than resorting to violence and terrorism * People hypothetically able to achieve change through political processes rather than violence * Economic growth might make people less desperate, terror groups no longer their only way out

Best response to outbidding (Kydd)

* Try to create conditions where you can bring parties into a coalition * Parties want to represent the same people, mostly agree on what they're fighting for -- do have a common ground * Need conditions that can bring them into a coalition with power-sharing to eliminate violence Outbidding = when people are asked to decide between two or more leadership views -- one more zealous, one more moderate * When groups don't know what they represent creates room for them to become more militant * idea that it's going to become radical anyway so might as well choose militant/violent group

Pushback to anarchy

* Violence began to be linked to low-wage workers * In the US the response was to cut back on immigration, deport * FDR professed a strong reaction against anarchy, immigrants (JFK directly preceded him -- assassinated by an anarchist...) * Jews received a lot of misplaced blame * Immigration Act 1903 -- restricted anarchists, people with epilepsy, importers of prostitutes * Immigration Act of 1918 strengthened these provisions, actually did stuff, gave the government the power to deport people * Coincided with new wave of journalism -- muckraking

ISIS's use of women

* When ISIS captured towns would separate men and women * Women/young girls sold and traded in slave markets...their entire use to ISIS (esp women in non-Muslim towns) was to be sold for sexual uses

How we should contain the ISIS threat according to Cronin 2015

* cont to advise and support Iraqi military, provide humanitarian assistance * putting more troops on the group would be counterproductive, entangle the US in an unwindable war * major powers must develop a common diplomatic, economic, and military approach to ensure that this pseudo-state is tightly contained and treated as a global pariah

Uyghur history

* from Turkey, middle eastern tribes * migrated to Central Asia around 2000 BCE * settled alongside Mongol and Turkic tribes * Islamization starting 10th century but majority of conversion wasn't completed until 16th / 17th centuries * relatively autonomous in China until post-1949 --> China's cultural revolution, civil war, Moa and modern China, conscious effort to expand national power * 1990 onward USSR breaks up, new wave of independent states with sovereignty --> huge resurgence of Uyghur nationalism

Conditions favorable to provocation (Kydd)

* the government must be capable of middling levels of brutality --> government willing and able to commit genocide makes a bad target for provocation, as the response will destroy the constituency the terrorists represent --> At the opposite pole, a government so committed to human rights and the rule of law that it is incapable of inciting indiscriminate punishment also makes a bad target Democracies more susceptible People might not agree with the terrorists' means, but agree with the point People can become radicalized if the government responds with sweeping consequences/retaliation

People who are vulnerable to joining terrorist groups

* unmarried young men, widowed women who were not gainfully employed prior to joining them * people undergoing dislocation from their native homeland * "Cultural outcasts" / "sense of alienation" * First or second generation immigrants * Residing in a non-Muslim country (European Muslims VS US Muslims: European Muslim immigrants are more prone to being radicalized than US Muslims bc they are less assimilated) The key scope condition for people joining a terrorist organization is having a friend or relative in it Terrorists are SOCIAL SOLIDARITY MAXIMIZERS

Full polity score

1 = completely democratic (ex Nordic countries, Japan) 0 = completely authoritarian, no democracy (ex China, North Korea)

Two main steps of spreading revolution

1) Conquest * Revolutionaries must be powerful enough to capture and hold territory * Success: USSR (at least until their collapse in 1991) Case of successful revolution bc Bolsheviks took over entire state apparatus in Russia and some territory in Europe) * Failure: Cuba and North Korea Big plans for expansion that failed (Cuba wanted widespread control of Caribbean, North Korea of the peninsula) Never able to expand or push borders further 2) Contagion * Once established, revolutionary ideas get exported around the world * Much easier said than done and rarely possible * USSR * Mao's China -- hope that communism would balloon, become the main socialist ideology BUT actually became an issue esp between China and Russia, butted heads Approach to their systems were very different * Can be very difficult for a revolution to get past its borders....

ISIS's variety of names

1) ISIS: the Islamic State in Iraq and Al-Sham 2) IS: Islamic State 3) ISIL: the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant 4) Da'ish / Daesh: al-dowla al-islaamiyya fii-il-i'raaq wa-ash-shaam NOTE: ISIS has dozens of other names based on region and/or translation interpretations

The goal of revolution is to replace an existing state/group of states with a new one. This can be accomplished one of two ways:

1) Revolutionaries commit regime change directly (ex: USSR -- Bolsheviks were the force that threw out the Czars, became the government) 2) Revolutionaries take advantage of an ongoing power vacuum (ex: ISIS taking advantage of E Syria, NW Iraq)

Example of suicide terrorism

1) USS Coal The USS Cole bombing was a suicide attack by the terrorist group al Qaeda against USS Cole, a guided missile destroyer of the United States Navy, on 12 October 2000, while she was being refueled in Yemen's Aden harbor. Blew a hole in the side, killed 17 US sailors Foreshadowed 9/11 which happened almost exactly a year later March 1, 2001 Al-Jazeera broadcasts Osama bin Laden reading a poem mentioning the attack. ''In Aden, the young man stood up for holy war and destroyed a destroyer feared by the powerful.'' 2) Jordanian embassy 2003 ISIS -- US issued order disbanding entire Iraqi military, served as easy targets for Zarqawi to recruit, insurgency began, Washington instated everything was under control....BS --> suicide bomb (truck bomb) August 2003 at Jordanian embassy (first terrorist bombing in Baghdad since the US captured the city); followed by thousands more

Five principal strategies in terrorist campaigns (Kydd)

1) attrition Terrorist seek to persuade the enemy that the terrorists are strong enough to impose considerable costs if the enemy continues a particular policy 2) intimidation try to convince the population that the terrorists are strong enough to punish disobedience and that the government is too weak to stop them, so that people behave as the terrorists wish 3) provocation an attempt to induce the enemy to respond to terrorism with indiscriminate violence, which radicalizes the population and moves them to support the terrorists 4) spoiling Spoilers attack in an effort to persuade the enemy that moderates on the terrorists' side are weak and untrustworthy, thus undermining attempts to reach a peace settlement 5) outbidding use violence to convince the public that the terrorists have greater resolve to fight the enemy than rival groups, and therefore are worthy of support

Best responses to attrition (Kydd)

1) concede inessential issues in exchange for peace, a strategy that we believe is frequently pursued though rarely admitted 2) targeted retaliation 3) a state can harden likely targets to minimize the costs the terrorist organization can inflict Target ex: nuclear/chemical plants, container shipping system 4) deny terrorists access to the most destructive weapons (esp nuclear and biological) 5) states minimizing psychological costs, the tendency people have to overreact Overstating the threat gives terrorists the advantage

Two main arguments about the effects of democracy on terrorism (according to Freeman 2008)

1) democracy encourages the conduct of terrorism Terrorists are more likely to target democracies, as others have argued, because protections of civil liberties constrain the security forces of a democratic state while creating more permissive conditions in which terrorists can organize and plan their operations 2) democracy undermines the causes of terrorism Reduces frustrations over the lack of political opportunities through free and fair elections, nonviolent conflict resolution * occupation (military) --> peaceful secession * threats to Islam identity (cultural) --> tolerance * failures of modernization (economic) --> economic growth * authoritarianism (political) --> legitimate government Spreading democracy will be unlikely to diminish this perceived threat to Islam * the more likely outcome of spreading democracy would be that it would increase the perceived threat to Islam, at least for those who prescribe to Salafi ideology because of the threat to their Islamic identity. For them, Islam is incompatible with democracy

Terrorists play to two key audiences (Kydd)

1) governments whose policies they wish to influence AKA enemy government 2) individuals on the terrorists' side who support to obedience they seek to gain AKA domestic population

Steps ISIS recruiters are taught (Jesse Morton)

1) one god with god, Muhammad is a messenger of god Main message: monotheism but stricter...the only form of governance that is acceptable is governance according to Sharia law (divine law) You're not a Muslim if you don't believe this, they say If you're participating in a government that isn't sharia law, then you're an infidel 2) rejection of false gods (idols) Idol = anything that takes away from the idea of god being the lawgiver Democratically elected president is an idol, ballot box is an idol, act of voting is an idol... If you are a good Muslim, you don't just let an idol sit around -- you destroy it 3) Arabic translation: loyalty and disavowal / loyalty and rejection / loyalty and hatred; your allegiance is to the Muslims only If you believe there is one god, you have to hate and love everything that god hates and loves Us VS them concept Reject contact and support for anything that isn't the jihadi message You reject the society, its leaders, people who don't support jihadi Similar to an abusive relationship....control and isolation

Common factors in people who become terrorists

1) perception of grievance Feeling you/your people are being prejudiced against, excluded (economically, socially, religiously, etc) 2) extremism can provide answers to your questions, essentially (speaking to your grievance) 3) social and group dynamics Who you pray with, go to school with, work with, etc Very influential in how all of us participate socially 4) enabling environments and support structures, communication over social media / internet It's easier to do it and it's easier to hide

Revolutionary movements convince their followers that their sacrifice will bear fruit through three main ways

1) portray their opponents as evil, hostile, incapable of reform ISIS portrays the West as innately hostile, existing Arab amd Muslim governments as heretical entities contrary to Islam's true nature 2) victory is inevitable, provided supporters remain obedient and steadfast ISIS's Baghdadi offered an upbeat assessment in 2014, saying "Its advance will not cease" 3) model is universally applicable and will spread around the globe --> leaders of revolutionary movements usually see their model as universally applicable, once victorious they promise the revolution will liberate millions/create a more perfect world/fulfill some divinely ordained plan ISIS's leaders believe that their fundamentalist message applies to the entire muslim world -- Baghdadi declared in 2014 that ISIS would unite "the Caucasian, Indian, Chinese..."

three subjects of uncertainty in terrorism (Kydd)

1) power 2) resolve 3) trustworthiness

Ways the strategic model could be flawed (Abrahms) aka rational actor model

1) terrorists are irrational people who minimize their utility, or 2) the model misspecifies their incentive structure Terrorists are NOT irrational, which means the model misspecified their incentive structure Psychiatric studies reveal that terrorists are not irrational → the foremost objective of terrorists may not be to achieve their organization's political platform People become terrorists not to achieve their organization's declared political agenda, but to develop strong affective ties with other terrorist members People participate in terrorist organizations for the social solidarity, NOT the political return

Assumptions of the strategic model (Abrahms) aka rational actor model

1) terrorists are motivated by relatively stable and consistent political preferences 2) terrorists evaluate the expected political payoffs of their available options, or at least the most obvious ones (weigh expected costs and benefits among most obvious options) 3) terrorism is adopted when the expected political return is superior to those of alternative options (select option with optimal expected utility) BUT terrorists' decision making process does NOT appear to conform to the model's three core assumptions...

Types of democracies

1. Closed autocracy (least democratic) * No multiparty elections for the chief executive or the legislature * No de-facto multiparty, or free and fair elections, or Dahl's institutional prerequisites not minimally fulfilled 2. Electoral autocracy * De-jure multiparty elections for the chief executive and the legislature * No de-facto multiparty, or free and fair elections, or Dahl's institutional prerequisites not minimally fulfilled * Ex: Russia (Putin was planning an election this April to get Constitution change passed about extending his rule as president → moving into a closed autocracy; postponed due to coronavirus) 3. Electoral democracy * The rule of law, or liberal principles not satisfied * De-facto multiparty, free and fair elections, and Dahl's institutional prerequisites minimally fulfilled 4. Liberal democracy (most democratic) * The rule of law, and liberal principles satisfied * De-facto multiparty, free and fair elections, and Dahl's institutional prerequisites minimally fulfilled * decline in liberal democracies -- there are more electoral democracies than liberal

Assuming individual terrorists are motivated by social solidarity, which characteristics are associated with the increased likelihood of joining a Jihadi terrorist group?

1. Having a sense of alienation / feeling like an outcast 2. Having a friend or family member in a terrorist organization 3. Being an immigrant in an unassimilated ethnic/religious community 4. being unemployed

Four "grievances" that make Global Salafi Jihad more appealing

1. Occupation (military) * Foreign military occupation esp 2. Threats to Islamic identity (cultural) * Idea that occupation or cultural changes that could cause regime change = perceived threat to an identity 3. Failures of modernization (economic) * Countries like Iraq that have been enslaved by capitalist greed, Sudaam Hussain * Iraq = oil-funded state, keep the people from being able to participate in the country, have a political system that worked for them....could create a sense that modernization has failed them 4. Authoritarianism (political) * Idea that leaders/dictators have abandoned their religion, if there were sharia law then the political problems would be solved * But question of who is interpreting sharia law...could even create a more confused political system (interpretation of religion and how it influence political law → paradoxical)

Which are said to be prizes of afterlife of those who die as Islamic martyrs according to a certain reading of the Qur'an and Hadith?

1. Seeing the face of Allah 2. The crown of dignity, which is covered in gems more rich and beautiful that anything on earth 3. Bringing 70 members of the martyr's family into paradise 4. Rivers of honey

Which terrorist tactics did anarchists use during the late 19th and early 20th centuries?

1. Targeted assassinations 2. Mail bombs 3. Symbolic bombings of government buildings and monuments 4. Bombings of civilian targets

The era of hijacking

1960s-80s Terrorists doing hijackings would often only allow US media to interview them because of US perceived media power Terrorism event → nonstop media coverage → policymakers pressured to resolve solution → terrorists get what they want → repeat Ethical dilemmas * Sloppy media -- Munich Hostage Crisis * In crisis, specifically when reporting on terrorism, journalists often abandon journalistic ethics

TWA flight hijacking

1985 June 14 Trans World Airlines flight 847 -- Cairo to San Diego with en route stops in Athens, Rome, Boston, and LA Hijacked shortly after it took off from Athens by Shiite Hezbollah terrorists Killed US Navy diver Robert Stethem Most passengers released in the early hours, lasted for 17 days total June 30 hostages were released unharmed, terrorists were effectively outside of the law's reach in Lebanon, appeared they would go free from punishment BUT one of them was caught two years later bringing explosives into an airport in Germany

Resurgence of Uyghur nationalism

1990s -- fall of USSR = wave of new independent states with sovereignty --> huge resurgence of Uyghur nationalism bc they see around the world a very peaceful democratization esp in Mongolia Mongolia: were the only independent communist state that was aligned with Russia and the Soviet Union Had its own central government, own Communist party BUT unlike other states they weren't subservient to Moscow Unique bc Mongolia democratization was completely peaceful, had a lot of support from former Communist officials CHINA SEES THIS -- fearful that it'll happen in China, takes preventative steps, becomes heavily integrated into world economic system BUT increased authoritarianism, begins implementing repressive, anti-ethnic laws and restrictions

Al Qaeda's 20-year plan

20-year plan Al Qaeda laid out in 2005 Hoffman points out how uncanny it is that they've gotten very far along this plan, the years are lining up quite well... all the way up to the idea of a caliphate, idea of total confrontation ISIS has largely continued this plan for Al Qaeda Final definitive victory state as their goal beginning this year -- taking over the world, basically Probs won't happen, but must be careful making these claims → they have made it much further along this plan than people thought they would, can't discount them because we think we've defeated them (don't discount just because you think we've overcome them → could make them stronger)

Reasons why al-Qaeda splintered, fighters went to ISIS

2002 Bush admin sought to link Zarqawi and 9/11, al-Qaeda to Saddam Hussain but there wasn't really a connection Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 2: disbanded the Iraqi Army and all military and intelligence elements of the former Iraq government --> the MOST consequential policy decision in the Middle East, the true thing that pushed Iraq over the edge into insurgency, directly led to the creation of ISIS (put out of work tens of thousands of men in the army etc, gave them no way to reenter society so joined fundamentalist insurgency groups) Denial that there was an organized insurgency in Iraq, Zarqawi took advantage of this by leading large-scale attacks mostly in Iraq that were aimed at the Iraqi people who they saw as enablers of the regime change

Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi

2013-2019 took over ISIS (after Zarqawi) Keen on using violence of Zarqawi with political Islamic push Baghdadi similarly sent to US prison around 2008/09 time AKA "jihadi university" Further radicalized, able to completely cement his role as a leader (built connections etc) Baghdadi took advantage of the civil unrest, civil war unfolding in Syria Syria, like much of the Middle East, was engulfed in protests after the Arab Spring (leader -- Assad? Was known for being very violent against Syrians) Baghdadi with control in north western Iraq, bordered Syria Saw chaos in Syria, started moving large groups of fighters into Syria -- able to commit large-scale terrorist acts in Damascus ISIS (^) taking large swaths of Syria in a matter of weeks, essentially This was shocking to the West -- ISIS seemed to come out of nowhere, suddenly they have tons of power and controlling large amounts of territory Either get rid of Assaad, put in new regime, and get rid of ISIS....didn't seem super reasonable US not there, only Russia -- Russia decided to support Assaad (Syria's leader) With Russia's help, Assaad has almost completely regained control of Syria Ended up in position where we have to take ISIS seriously

Major ISIS milestones

2013: formation * Disparate groups (Ba'ath Party and al-Qaeda) coalesce * Exploited power vacuum in Syria 2014: rapid territorial gain * Camp Speicher massacre (training facility for the new Iraqi army, filled with unarmed recruits, ISIS fighters surrounded, kidnapped and killed 1500, made them dig their own graves.... BIG WARNING SIGN that ISIS was able to do something so massive) * rapid blitz captures large swaths of Syria and Western Iraq * Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi gives sermon from Mosul's Great Mosque in Iraq 2015-2016: exporting terror to Europe (expansion) * Paris I and II * Nice, Paris * Brussels * Pulse Nightclub shooting link 2017-2018: rapid territorial loss * Raqqa and Mosul recaptured but left in ruin * Backed by Russia, Assad recaptured much of Syria 2019 * Sri Lanka bombings * Ideology cont to spread online * Baghdadi killed

History of ISIS

2014 emerged, started capturing key territory in Iraq, 2nd largest city in Iraq fell in one day, fighters weren't new -- over a decade, ever since the American invasion of Iraq FOUNDER: Abu Mossad Zarqawi Zarqawi in and out of prison, shared cell blocks with other radical fighters who wanted jihad, established himself as a leader, wanted to be a holy warrior and establish an Islamic empire, traveled to Afghanistan to meet Osama bin Laden, bin Laden didn't think Zarqawi was "sophisticated" enough 2002 Zarqawi moved to terrorist camp in North Iraq, working on chemical and biological weapons, CIA decided to target them but America planning to take out Sadaam Hussain and said Zarqawi could cause a problem so decided not to "start the war before we're ready" --> gave up a prime opportunity to target a known jihadi Paolo (?) gave a speech at the UN making connection between bin Laden and Hussain using Zarqawi (did NOT reflect CIA analysis) which gave Zarqawi power, in the following days Zarqawi disappeared; US ordered disbanding of entire Iraqi military --> easy pickings for Zarqawi's recruitment efforts Insurgency began, Washington instated everything was under control....BS --> suicide bomb (truck bomb) August 2003 at Jordanian embassy (first terrorist bombing in Baghdad since the US captured the city); followed by thousands more --> Zarqawi's strategy was to have only the US left, make it a black and white fight, rally support as a result 2003 Zarqawi sent a message to the US with decapitating Nicholas Berg (American do-gooder) --> Zarqawi finally had international attention Bin Laden wanted Zarqawi to use the "al-Qaeda brand," Zarqawi initiated violence against Shia, violence against fellow Muslims was too much for bin Laden, Zarqawi disagreed (his plan for Sunni resurgence required brutal, sectarian violence --> blew up the Golden Dome, a Shia shrine, set off cycle of violence) Zarqawi achieved what he wanted -- populations felt pitted against each other (Religious vision promising god's return to earth, empowerment of Sunni Muslims around the world) 2006 US military received tip, bombed Zarqawi's hideout. Zarqawi was dead, but his call for an Islamic state lived on. US General made alliance with Sunni tribes that once worked with Zarqawi, filled Zarqawi's followers one by one, what was left of the group went underground for three years 2009 Obama removed troops from Iraq by 2011 (disengaged militarily and politically --> power vacuum?), what was left of Zarqawi's group began to rebuild with a new leader --> Abu Baker al-Baghdadi As the US conducted sweeps of Sunni population, Baghdadi put in US prison, essentially created "jihadi universities"... established communication networks, etc, after release he moved up Zarqawi's organization, used religious authority to justify terror, exploited chaos in Damascus, Syria to eventually take over By 2013 Baghdadi's forced captured whole areas of Syria (civil war gave them an opportunity, platform) --> people coming form everywhere in support of Baghdadi, called his "state" ISIS, ruled through violence and fear Obama resisted authorizing military intervention, Baghdadi working on expansion of ISIS into Iraq (started assaulting the Sunni homeland, essentially), widespread disaffection against Sunni tribes, Sunnis had nowhere to go except to Baghdadi Early 2013 Baghdadi began campaign to take over Iraq, July 4 2014 he ascended steps of Mosul's great Mosque, declared himself the caliph --> Obama finally orders military intervention

In Chermak and Gruenewald's 2015 study of far-left, far-right, and AQAM extremists in the US, which of these findings was unexpected? 1. Women make up at least 25% of participants in all groups 2. Whites/caucasians make up a majority of AQAM extremists 3. Fewer than 5% of far-right extremists have prior military experience 4. No extremists in the study have a college education

3. Fewer than 5% of far-right extremists have prior military experience

Uyghur "re-education camps"

= detention camps Order to "round up anyone who should be rounded up" → essentially just ethnic minorities. Anyone who disagreed was sent to camp. They're forced to be there, can't leave, massive detention centers, people essentially brainwashed, physically and mentally abused to the point that they renounce their heritage or if they're deemed "un-educatable" they just disappear... China denies that these things exist...say it's people who want to learn about Chinese history but nope not true Millions of people held in these camps for months, years primarily based on ethnicity Family members who are left behind and not "re-educated" are told their family has voluntarily been sent to a camp, excited to learn about their heritage, tell the family that their behavior will determine if the "prisoner" will get out sooner or later...saying they need to be a better Chinese citizens (which totally undermines the whole voluntary claim) TIP using excuse of ethnic tension to create terrorism Government response, though, either radicalizes people further and/or eliminates/erases an ethnic identity.... China has no concern about civil liberties (entire regime built on the lack of these principles) China's economic power has increased exponentially -- a lot of people are probs willing to give up civil liberties bc idea of rising tide raises all boats (economy improving, all people improving)

The Geneva Convention

A set of international standards of conduct for treating prisoners of war, established in 1929 * Civilians cannot be targeted * Sick and wounded must be cared for * Lives and welfare of POWs must be protected VS terrorism: lack of rules → war crimes

Examples of terrorist groups from each wave

ANARCHIST * Paris Commune * Haymarket Riot in Chicago ANTI-COLONIAL * Easter Island, IRA * FLN in Nigeria (desire to get Nigeria out of French colonial control) NEW LEFT * Weather Underground RELIGIOUS * Aum Shinrikyo * Al-Qaeda

The Haymarket Riot

ANARCHIST WAVE of terrorism (1880s - 1920s) 1886 labor-related protest. Workers rioted in Chicago. After the police fired into the crowd, the workers met and rallied in Haymarket Square to protest police brutality. A bomb exploded, killing or injuring many of the police. The Chicago workers and the man who set the bomb were immigrants, so the incident promoted anti-immigrant feelings. * 1884 burgeoning labor movement in the US * Fighting for an 8 hr workday (the point people rallied around, clear moment of coalition with labor movements around the US) * May 1st 1886 300,000 laborers walked off the job * High stakes -- no protections for getting fired * By May 3rd 100,000 people in Chicago alone were walking off the job * Violence broke out, police fired into crowd and killed a few people * Following day -- call from leaders to have public mourning, another day of striking * 10,000 ish people showed up in Haymarket square * Police decided speeches getting too violent, police started to try to disperse the crowd, someone threw a bomb into the police line and killed 7 people * Police shot into the crowd and killed 4-8 people, injured dozens others * Day ends in horrific violence * Mayor Harrison was there oddly enough -- later said the speeches weren't violent * Ended up being rallying cry for anarchists, labor rights activists * See big push for fair labor laws

Change in tactics between waves of terrorism, what the waves stood for

ANARCHY 1880-1920s -- inspired by failure of democratic reform * assassinating political figures ANTI-COLONIAL 1920-60s -- inspired by self-determination * larger array of targets, striking in proper sequence, exploited the international scene * Most new states admitted to the UN = former colonial territories, gave the anti-colonial sentiment in that body more power * more coordinated attacks, fewer assassinations * more international * More exploitation of diaspora community, people on the other side of the world can donate materials/money more easily * emergence of technology NEW LEFT 1960-1979 -- maintained that egalitarian principle of the French Revolution Was never fully accepted * Vietnam War stimulated the "new left wave" * Nationalist groups as the third wave's most durable entities * Similarities between first and third waves: 1) women back to being leaders and fighters 2) "Theatrical targets," comparable to those in the first wave, replaced the second wave's "military" targets (ex: hostages) 3) assassinating prominent figures practice was revived, but different logic -- first wave bc the victim assassinated held a public office VS third wave more often justified as "punishments" 4) term "international terrorism" revived RELIGIOUS 1979-present -- explicitly anti-democratic * Earlier aim was to establish secular states, now they want religious states * Has reshaped the international system * Islam at the heart of the wave * Christian terrorism emerged (based on racist interpretations of the Bible) * Suicide bombing as the wave's trademark (Tamal Tigers) * Much more deadly and effective than the third wave but produced fewer terrorist groups * American targets began 1993 * started 1979 bc End of Arab-Israeli War, Camp David thing, Soviets invade Afghanistan to keep it in their sphere of influence, group of Saudi Arabian fundamentalists occupied mosque in Mecca DRAMATIC UNANTICIPATED POLITICAL EVENTS STIMULATED EACH WAVE * Anarchy -- * Anti-colonial -- end of WWI - end of WWII / beginning of the Cold War, Atlantic Charter, Singapore fall of British empire * New left -- Vietnam War * Religious -- End of Arab-Israeli War, Camp David thing, Soviets invade Afghanistan to keep it in their sphere of influence, group of Saudi Arabian fundamentalists occupied mosque in Mecca

Operational differences between AQAM and ISIS

AQAM (around 2003-2004) * Dozens to low hundreds of leaders and combatants * Decentralized, located in rural areas * Survives because of outside financing * Relied on donations, money laundering that extended globally/to different countries ISIS (around 2014-15) * Tens of thousands of combatants * Centralized in several highly-populated cities and towns * Their goal was to capture territory, capturing Mosul was a huge success for them → allows for economic independence within the borders they created * Territory captured allows for economic independence (oil revenue $1m - 3m PER DAY, liquidated local and regional banks, implements taxes and toll roads)

Which have been considered inspirational and/or official leaders of ISIS

Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi

According to Kiras, time is the most important element required for the successful conclusion of an insurgent / terrorist campaign. What are its three phases?

According to Tse-Tung Mao: the strategic defensive, the stalemate, the strategic offensive The strategic defensive * avoidance of set-piece battles, use of tactical offensives, moral superiority of guerrillas is established, new recruits Stalemate * prolonged battle to attrit the enemy's physical and moral strength; government control, population drawn upon for moral and physical support, building "main" forces Strategic offensive * end game of the conflict where popular and main forces conduct the battle of maneuver, use overwhelming force to destroy decimated enemy forces in their defensive positions

Response to genocide VS response to terrorism

According to Zimmerer 2006, the responses have to be different State response to genocide requires negotiation because states are recognized international power Terrorism doesn't "require" negotiation generally (if ISIS were a recognized state they would have much more power)

Is genocide terrorism?

According to Zimmerer 2006: No TERRORISM 1) Targeted at specific location, group Government, office, etc -- tactically chosen Over one place (less of a who, more of a where) Can be both targeted and indiscriminate (targeted location/purpose, indiscriminate with who is actually killed -- ex: random people in that area) 2) intimidation Not necessarily to kill everyone... more about getting people to leave, change their position 3) non-state actor 4) no legal protections Not bound to international sovereignty and governments don't consider them bound, operate outside the international system, don't operate within borders GENOCIDE 1) indiscriminate Violence is everywhere, doesn't matter where it happens as long as it happens Over a very wide area -- entire region, country 2) eradication Don't want people to change their minds or move, they want them to be eliminated completely 3) state actor 4) state sovereignty: war crime/crime against humanity Bound by the laws of state sovereignty, expectations of international system Gives them more power -- forces leaders into state of negotiation Can we respond to what happened to Rwanda with what happened with FARC in Colombia? Not really..... States don't respond the same way -- US/other countries not getting involved in genocide in Rwanda but readily getting invovled in terrorism, even declaring a "war on terrorism" International criminal court trials

Example of hijacking planes

Air France Flight 139 (Operation Entebbe) * Palestinian activists took over plane, landed in Uganda where Idiamene (??) in charge -- horrible dictator * Israeli military got involved * Success of operation -- killed the terrorists and a lot of * Ugandan military backing them up Lufthansa Flight 181 * October 1977 * four members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, who called themselves Commando Martyr Halima * objective of the hijacking was to secure the release of imprisoned Red Army Faction leaders Pan American Flight 103 (Libya) * Blown up over Scotland by Libyan individuals * 20 yrs later Kadafi (??) sent a letter to UN saying he did it but no remorse Korean Air Flight 858 (North Korea) * N Korean person killed most South Korean passengers with bombing DB Cooper * Hijacked flight over pacific NW, had gun, demanded ransom, landed the plane and got him money, he had a parachute, as plane over somewhere (Washington?) he jumped out, never to be seen again * FBI said assumed he died upon landing (flying low altitude for parachuting)

What does the acronym AQAM stand for?

Al Qaeda and Affiliated Movements

Similarities/differences in ISIS recruiting men VS women

Alex got gifts from Faisal, books with differing levels of strictness on dressing etc...appeared like there was a little more freedom Language Faisal uses seems playful, casual Emotional tactic like this might not be used with men Less talk about violence, explained the violence away VS with men, there is more glorification of violence, treated as an honor to fight and die

"Terrorism" and "extremism"

All terrorists are extremists, not all extremists are terrorists

Global Salafi Jihad

An international ideological sect within Sunni Islam that seeks a return to a "purer, stricter, and more fundamentalist implementation of hte Quran and hadith" * use this specific term to separate from just "Islamic terrorism" (very reductive)

List Rapoport's four waves of terrorism

Anarchist (1870s - 1920s) Nationalist (1920s - 1960s) Far-Left (Late 60s - 1979) Religious (1979 - now)

Waves of terrorism

Anarchist, 1880s-1920s * Haymarket Riot in Chicago * theatre bombing in Barcelona 1893 * mail bombings in the US, targeting wealthy and government officials * 1901 assassination of President Mickinly done by anarchist empathizer * 1920 (?) Wall Street bombing Anti-colonial / nationalist, 1920-1960s (took off in the 40s) * Easter Island, IRA * FLN in Algeria (French colony in Algeria desire to get Algeria out of French colonial control) -- National Liberation Front New-Left, 1960s-1979 * Weather underground (radical leftist organizations) * Anti-capitalist, pro-civil rights, violent and radical * France has many examples Religious, 1979-now * Aum Shinrikyo * Al-Qaeda * Boko Haram

Cronin 2015 article main argument

Article's main claim: ISIS is a pseudo-state led by a conventional army, NOT a terrorist organization → counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency strategies that greatly diminished the threat from Al Qaeda will not work for ISIS; need a strategy of "offensive containment" * ISIS uses terrorism as a tactic, but isn't a terrorist organization "offensive containment": a combination of limited military tactics and a broad diplomatic strategy to halt ISIS' expansion, isolate the group, and degrade its capabilities

Overall idea of Freeman 2008 article

As a tool for countering Al Qaeda, the widespread belief in the power of democracy is likely misplaced...The spread of democracy will probably do little to alter the underlying appeal of the ideology of global jihad and may even make it more powerful

Lunatic assassin VS terrorists (Hoffman)

Assassin: similar objective (death of political figures, etc) but different purposes Terrorist's goal is political BUT lunatic assassin's goal is more often intrinsically idiosyncratic, completely egocentric and deeply personal

According to Hoffman, ethnonationalist and separatist terrorism became more popular following WWII because of:

Atlantic Charter Fall of Singapore

Typology of terrorist attacks (4), Tilly article

Autonomous, zealots, militias, conspirators AUTONOMOUS * Less specialized, committing acts at home * Sometimes launch attacks on authorities * Do not become durably organized specialists * Loosely organized groups, terrorism within home country ZEALOTS * Less specialized, committing acts outside of their home territories Loosely affiliated, individuals that share an ideology, autonomists MILITIAS * Highly specialized (in coercion), commit acts of terror within home territory * More organized * Governmental or non-governmental, etc Ex: paramilitary groups CONSPIRATORS * Highly specialized, focus on outside of their territory * The least concerning according to Tilly * Attention too focused on the idea of well-organized, outside group

Oklahoma City bombing

Bombing of Murrah Federal Building 1995 April 19. The blast, set off by Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols (kinda Michael Fortier), killed 168 people, including 19 children in the building's day-care center. * Bomb cost only $500 wish to make, mostly made legally * timed very carefully to cause mass loss of human life * primary motives: Waco and Ruby Ridge (galvanizing moments for the anti-government movement for the far right in the 1990s --> saw it as an overreach of federal authority, violence that didn't respect human life) * bombing = two years after Waco * People seeing Timothy McVeigh the first time when he was being transferred to jail (??) made everyone realize he was "one of us," not a foreign terrorist

Abbu Fusayfa

Canadian, inside the Islamic States sometime during 2014, returned to Canada and was living in the general population 24 years old From Pakistani immigrant household (Muslim) Said he wanted something bigger, not "simple and boring"

Why might a terrorist group not claim an attack they committed?

Civilian casualties are very low / high "Incorrect" civilians targeted (e.g. Al Qaeda killing Muslim civilians instead of non-Muslims) Principal-agent problemAnonymity breeds fear and puts more pressure on attacked government

What is anarchy?

Closely tied to Marxism, movements that came out of the industrial revolution People controlling progress were thought to be corrupt "Anarchy as a way to bring about a revolution of workers and peasants... The absence of a ruler or sovereign" = Self-rule Proudhon, Bakunin (eventually split -- Bakunin: every forward step in history has only succeeded after it has been "baptized in blood," about symbolic violence; PROPAGANDA BY DEED) Two important ideas for solving this problem (want self-rule): * Federalism (replace centralized governments by federations of local communities or communes) * Mutualism (fair wages, fair treatment of workers; base society on small, mutually-supporting economic groups and secure for the worker the full value of the goods they had produced) ability of anarchy to attract both proletariat/working class AND educated/upper class "Average anarchist" as middle class

What was the MOST consequential policy decision in the Middle East, the true thing that pushed Iraq over the edge into insurgency, directly led to the creation of ISIS

Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 2 Disbanded the Iraqi Army and all military and intelligence elements of the former Iraq government (put out of work tens of thousands of men in the army etc, gave them no way to reenter society so joined fundamentalist insurgency groups)

Irish nationalists -- IRA

Committing acts of terrorism to protest British Occupation (late 19th / early 20th century) * Had an army, mobilized troops * Toward the end of the period began to use more guerrilla / terrorist tactics → started attacking military and civilian points in Britain (attacking the enemy at home) Time-delayed bombs Attacking high-traffic public targets → move into modern definition of terrorism (more indiscriminate attacks) Aiming to create a sense of fear 10 people killed 100-200 injured over the course of 10 yrs of terrorist attacks → stoking fear, not trying to kill tons

Why has the use of suicide terrorism increased in the past 40 years?

Correlation between suicide terrorism and religion (in the religious wave of terrorism rn... coincides with rise of suicide terrorism) Suicide bombing has become pronounced (since 1980) as the result o foreign occupation usually by the US / NATO --> careful with correlation vs causation (1980-present is not a long period of time, hard to establish a definite trend) --> if we agree with Rappoport, this is all occurring within one wave of terrorism (religious wave), which would mean it could be a characteristic of the wave and not necessarily foreign occupation) --> If the goal is to push a foreign occupier out then suicide bombing as a tactic really isn't all that effective They're attacking a foreign power for a reason, but maybe it's more about increasing support for their own group

Criminals VS terrorists (Hoffman)

Criminals: purpose or motivation of violence is very different -- acting primarily for selfish, personal motivations (usually material gain) * Not designed or intended to have consequences or create psychological repercussions beyond the act itself

Deaths from terrorism

Deaths from terrorism significantly rose from 2010 - 2014 ish --> ISIS rise to power, violently taking territory 1990 significance 1990 - 2010 has variation but stays around the same numbers Middle East and N Africa experience sharp increase in terrorism 2011ish

The theoretical power of democracy (freeman 2008)

Democracy undermines the causes of terrorism Reduces frustrations over the lack of political opportunities through free and fair elections, nonviolent conflict resolution * occupation (military) --> peaceful secession * threats to Islam identity (cultural) --> tolerance * failures of modernization (economic) --> economic growth (this relationship is tedious at best) * authoritarianism (political) --> legitimate government Freeman DOES NOT think this is an appropriate theoretical model

Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 2 was an official order by the Provisional Iraqi government in 2004 that:

Disbanded all elements of Iraq's former Ba'ath party, specifically the entire military and __ apparatus

Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 2

Disbanded the Iraqi Army and all military and intelligence elements of the former Iraq government --> the MOST consequential policy decision in the Middle East, the true thing that pushed Iraq over the edge into insurgency, directly led to the creation of ISIS (put out of work tens of thousands of men in the army etc, gave them no way to reenter society so joined fundamentalist insurgency groups)

The invention of ____ was one of the key contributing factors for the development of terrorism and its tactics during the late 19th and early 20th centuries

Dynamite (during anarchist wave of terrorism; made during industrial revolution) Also 1919 group of Italian anarchists in the US (had immigrated) began creating new bomb-making techniques, able to disguise a single stick of dynamite in what looked like a department store package --> one of the first widespread attempts to build a mail bomb; first time it was implemented in a widespread fashion

Far-left extremism in the US

Eco-activism, eco-extremism is a very modern phenomenon Started in the 1970s First US example 1977 Undersea Railroad group -- released two dolphins from University of Hawaii (?) Animal liberation Animal and earth liberation fronts = two primary examples of ecoterrorism

In Kiras 2007, which of these is NOT a key factor in determining success of an insurgency? Space Time Legitimacy Elections Support

Elections

Which of the following are examples of far-left environmental extremist groups that operated in the US? Environmental Liberation Front (ELF) Movement to Avenge Society's Hurt (MAHS) World Liberation Front (WLF) Animal Liberation Front (ALF) Save the Animals, Nature, Trees, and Air (SANTA)

Environmental Liberation Front (ELF) Animal Liberation Front (ALF)

TRUE or FALSE According to Abrahms 2006, terrorists are irrational and thus it is impossible to understand their motivations

FALSE

TRUE or FALSE According to Kiras 2007, irregular warfare and terrorism campaigns are generally short-lived, measuring in months and years instead of decades

FALSE

TRUE or FALSE Far-left environmental extremism in the US was deadly in addition to being costly, taking the lives of several academic researches and US Forest Service employees

FALSE

TRUE or FALSE Religiously-motivated terrorism is entirely theological and has no political motivation

FALSE

TRUE or FALSE Suicide attacks are more expensive than traditional methods of terrorism which means that are resered for only the most organized terror groups

FALSE

TRUE or FALSE The Uyghur people are ethnically Christian

FALSE

TRUE or FALSE most military drones are armed

FALSE Armed drones make up approx 10% of the military UAV fleet A lot more time spent on intelligence-gathering, reconecence

TRUE or FALSE Conducting a drone strike is less time consuming compared to other missions

FALSE Drone strike teams spend a majority of their mission time collecting intelligence Can get massive amounts of info -- movement, etc Can cycle drones almost indefinitely as long as you don't lose someone's physical position

TRUE or FALSE pilots and commanders are immune to the psychological effects of combat

FALSE Early studies suggest 4 to 6% of drone pilots experience PTSD after a tour, compared to 10 to 15% in active combat But we're only in the first 10 years of heavy use of drones -- long-term effects are not clear Getting to "go home at night" (drone pilots going home after day working) can be just as hard -- break in doing in their mission VS at home

TRUE or FALSE drones are easier to operate compared to traditional aircrafts

FALSE Once active drone requires 180 people across multiple continents

TRUE or FALSE ISIS refuses to recruit western women to their ranks, only allowing those ethnically tied too the "caliphate" to join

FALSE Recruit western women as long as they are Muslim (women who aren't Muslim in the region will be killed / sex slavery)

TRUE or FALSE Drones are inexpensive

FALSE most sophisticated drone casts $30,000 per flight hour, similar to manned stealth fighter jets

Foreign fighter phenomenon

Foreign fighters may return to their homelands to carry out terrorist attacks Involvement of returned foreign fighters in terrorist plotting increases the effectiveness and lethality of terrorist attacks

Terrorism and the use of terrors a tactic first entered the western lexicon following which historical event?

French Revolution

When is the first time terrorism was truly used?

French Revolution 1789-99 --> Reign of Terror 1793-94 * After the monarchy was overthrown, the revolutionaries turned on each other * New people in power used their power to punish old ruling system, people who weren't left-enough * Consolidating power, building power in the way they thought was best * 40,000 killed officially -- doesn't count disease and starvation etc that comes with regime collapse, countless more died of disease and starvation = State-based terrorism Differences between then (Reign of Terror) and now * Orchestrated by the regime * Related to enlightenment and liberalism * Human rights Similarities between then (Reign of Terror) and now * Organized, deliberate, systematic * Goal of a "new and better society"

The anticolonial struggles of the 1950s: Algeria

French rule over Algeria 1954-1962 as the last immediate postwar anti-colonial struggle FLN and Ramdane Abane leading figure -- led to full-scale urban terrorist campaign by FLN eventually (first two years with little success then shifted to this strategy) Ahmed Ben Bella = FLN's leader, became Algeria's first president Campaign spearheaded by group's attractive young female operatives (created less suspicion; bombed milk bar, cafeteria, downtown Air France passenger terminal) French army responding with trying to find the person making commands for FLN → torture of both terrorists and suspected terrorists to obtain information Brutality of French army's campaign alienated Algerian Muslin community -- driven into armies of the FLN, swelling the organization's ranks and increasing its popular support ****EXAMPLE OF SUCCESS OF PROVOCATION**** (one of the 5 principal strategies in terrorist campaigns, Kydd) Five years later France withdrew from Algeria and granted the country its independence Battle of Algiers FLN tactical defeat in the city resulted in a complete assessment of its strategy -- moved to operational bases in Tunisia where they pursued a rural hit-and-run strategy

Strategies to avoid power vacuum

Full-scale diplomatic coalition in the region → we need to find a way to get Russia, Assaad, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey all together to plan out the next 10-20-30 years, find a way to make the region stable Probs not realistic BUT big idea is to keep lines of communication open

The Levant / Al-Sham

Geogrpahical region dating back to origins of Islam (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan area) → area ISIS considers its right to rule

The Redirect Method -- five core recruitment narratives of ISIS they identified

Good governance Military might Religious legitimacy Call to jihad Victimhood of the Umma umma = the worldwide body of Muslims Post-2017: user searches for videos about ISIS, certain keywords are flagged, curated playlist displayed above results (none from mainstream media, includes mix of content and perspectives), tech better aimed at identifying pro-ISIS content and automatically removing it

ALF's real name in the hit NBC sitcom that ran between 1986 - ?

Gordan Shungway

The anticolonial struggles of the 1950s: Cyprus

Grivas in Cyprus -- very similar campaign to Begin's in Palestine; founder and commander of EOKA (National Organization of Cypriot Fighters) Deployed EOKA forces in the island's urban centers where they were organized into individual terrorist cells (8-10 people each) Mission to tie up as many British troops as possible to allow EOKA to consolidate its control over the rest of the island In 5 months, EOKA succeeded in attaining UN consideration of the Greek Cypriots' nationalist claims The more visible and perversion the security forces in Cyprus became, the greater the public frustration caused by disruption to daily life and the more powerful and omnipresent the terrorists appeared Agreement reached 1959 British reluctant acceptance of proposal for the creation of an independent republic of Cyprus with Britain being allowed to maintain two strategic bases on the island Revolt officially ended a month later

Guerrilla VS terrorist VS insurgency (Hoffman)

Guerrilla: refers to a numerically large group of armed individuals who operate as a military unit, attack enemy military forces, seize and hold territory, exercising some form of sovereignty or control over a defined geographical area and its population Insurgents: share the same characteristics as guerrillas, but their strategy and operations transcend hit-and-run attacks to embrace "revolutionary guerrilla warfare" = coordinated informational (propaganda) and psychological warfare efforts designed to mobilize popular support in a struggle against an established national government, imperialist power, or foreign occupying force Terrorists: do NOT function in the open as armed units, generally don't attempt to seize or hold territory, deliberately avoid engaging enemy military forces in combat, constrained both numerically and logistically from undertaking concerted mass political mobilization efforts, exercise no direct control or govern any over a populace at either the local or the national level

Ku Klux Klan

Has been around since end of Civil War essentially FOunded by ex-confederate officers at end of Civil War, pissed the south lost, Pirmary mission to intimidate and kill black freedmen post-slavery Didn't want a racial democracy First iteration only lasted 10ish years but thousands of black people murdered Klan disappeared as an official group until 1920s -- film The Birth of a Nation, glorifies KKK/the south, silent film, white nationalist overtones Reinforced idea that there's a gentile old south, "great men" upholding traditional values Still present today David Duke as outspoken member of KKK, ran for office a few times, endorsed Trump

Munich 1972 (example of terrorism becoming very global very fast)

Hosting Olympics in W Germany 1972 (erasing image of 1936 Olympics with Hitler opening, turning it into a Nazi propoganda scheme etc etc) Didn't have armed guards / military personnel -- Germany had policies on it... couldn't have army there Early morning Sept 5, 1972 8 members of Black September (Palestinian group) climbing fence with weapons -- American or Canadian atheletes helepd them over not realizing it Stormed into Israeli dormitory, killed two that fought back, held the remaining nine for 15 hours Games continued... Terrorists demanding release of approx 130 Palestinian combatants/terrorists being held in Israeli jail, five members of west german gorup being held (maybe to confuse them, show they aren't fighting for Palestine but they definitely were) Germans failed to clear the scene, cameras got pics/videos of the building and hostage situation There were TVs in the building, terrorists could see the military forces getting ready to raid them! Raid was called off at the last minute (reason unclear) Terrorists requested jumbo jet to take them to Egypt, Germans played along German commandos dressed up as flight attendants etc ready to kill them when they get on the plane but entire operation bungled (?) Until the helicopters landed at the airport they didn't realize there were 8 terrorists (thought only 4, so only had 4 snipers) → fire fight, killed all remaining hostages, three terrorists survived and imprisoned, eventually released in prison swap, rumors saying they were killed by Massad organization, one survived until the 1990s Can see a clear line where media handled this situation VS now with constant media, but still not all that different (constant media stream) Study claims ¼ of global population knows about this event Turned the Palestinian fight into a global event -- gave the Palestinians press, who they are and what they want This was not the only Black September operation Many other failed attempts (attempt to assassinate Prime Minister of Israel a few times, etc)

What does ISIS recruitment look like?

How to make religious abstracts real IDEOLOGIAL RECRUITMENT 1) Sharia law is the only law 2) false idols should be destroyed, not just ignored 3) allegiance is only to Allah and those who follow him SOCIAL RECRUITMENT * appeal to sense of alienation * expert use of social media algorithms to push people towards extremism * YouTube and other video sites (appearance of neutrality -- documentary/news formats, makes tase videos put into "recommended" section, YouTube if someone is viewing a news clip etc --> recruiters reach out to people who comment (as soon as they can identify that you're leaning towards sympathy) * Monitoring comments on social media and directing people to encrypted messages * Article: As ISIS gets squeezed in Syria and Iraq, it's using music as a weapon * ISIS using western media as a hook to get people involved * Music video example: French language music video designed by people with ISIS, recruitment tool

So how do we stop ISIS recruitment? (esp online)

How/if the government should regulate the media, esp considering freedom of speech Should social media platforms be responsible for regulations? US govt takes a VERY hands-off approach (The social media corporations won't take any responsibility, and the government doesn't regulate -- social media companies are essentially doing whatever they want to do) The Redirect Method: group that has been successful with preventing recruitment, got off the ground around 2016, thinks about what can be done on the internet to push people away from extremism

Decolonization and wars of liberation

Hungarian Anti-Soviet Uprising (1956) * Resistance very well-formed, comprised elements of military fighters and pro-democ, funded under the table by many W European / American countries * When they started taking over Budapest to kick out Soviets they thought France, England, the US would help → they didn't, Soviets immediately sent out military, gave them rational for being more aggressive in the southern block Mujahideen in Afghan-Soviet War (1979-1989) * Fighting against Soviet occupation of the area * US funded covertly and overtly bc they would defeat the soviets Contras in Nicaragua (1980s) * Reagan loved idea of freedom fighters but only when anti-communist * Privately funded right-wing paramilitary groups to overthrow socialist/leftist govts * Depending on perspective -- terrorists or nationalists or guerillas or freedom fighters...

Walt's main claim in "ISIS as a Revolutionary State"

ISIS will never come close to being a great power -- ideology is too parochial, power too limited to spark similar takeovers outside Iraq and Syria History also shows that outside efforts to topple a revolutionary state often backfire -- strengthen hard-liners, provide additional opportunities for expansion

Propaganda of the deed

Idea of "propaganda by deed" developed within the context of the apparent failure of Bakunin's collectivism, increasing repressiveness of the police and authorities = a policy of illegal acts aimed at institutions and toward revolt and revolution; considered necessary because verbal and written propaganda had proved ineffectual Violence/terrorism designed to have major social impact, start a social revolution

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI; formerly One Belt One Road)

In Xinjiang region * = expansive project combining Beijing's economic and political motives into a world-wide policy * Aim to completely reimagine the way goods travel from China to Africa and Europe specifically * Wants to extend its shipping to Africa, make a road from China to Germany and Russia * Effort to reorganizing trade relationship to increase trade capacity, make routes more streamlined * Road runs right through Xinjiang and Urumqi

Where did Zarqawi become radicalized?

In prison ("jihadi university") Prisons as breeding grounds for radical ideologies, extremism

The "manosphere" and incels

Incels and other men's rights activists use the red pill from the Matrix as a metaphor, despite the movie's obvious Marxist ideology and its trans directors Started almost entirely online, very internet-based phenomenon Internet as the first thing that allowed them to come together "Men's rights activists" believe family law and social institutions are discriminatory against men Another group blames and avoids women completely Pickup artists, men create strategies and books on how to pick up women Enforce sexist ideologies, gender stereotypes, sexism Idea of "negging" came out of it Incels (worst and most insidious) AKA Involuntary Celibates Basically just about sex -- they think they are incapable of having sex, (can't have sex bc isolation???? No one wants them?? Incapable of having relationships with women?) They blame women, society, laws, culture, liberalization Becoming very violent 2014, UC Santa Barbara, young man killed many students (specifically women) during rampage, called himself an Incel Seen as heros, martyrs within the Incel movement Texas released domestic terrorism report recently -- white domestic terrorism is the biggest threat to Texas, Incels as a big part of that

Revolutionary movements typically use a combination of these three methods to enforce obedience and encourage sacrifices

Inducement, intimidation, indoctrination

Relationship between regime type and terrorism

Inverted U shape (highest in semi-democ countries)

Which event(s) does Rapoport give as the explantation for a 1979 dividing line between the third and fourth waves of terrorism?

Iranian Revolution US Embassy Hostage Crisis

Where do we draw the line between extremism and terrorism?

Is it fair for the FBI to say eco-extremism is terrorism? Terrorism as a politically-motivated act that inspires terrorism so yes, this = terrorism (student)

Example of unclaimed terrorist attack

Islamabad 2008 * Evening of Sept 20 (during Ramadan) * President of Pakistan was addressing Parliament * Talked about being strong against terrorists, avoid foreign governments trying to influence Pakistan * After speech he went to the Prime Minister's residence, ½ mile ish away from the Marriott Hotel (most prestigious hotel at the time in Islamabad) * 30 US soldiers, diplomats etc staying at the hotel * Dump truck filled with 1300 lbs of explosives rammed the security gate but wouldn't get through, security shooting back, truck exploded, created massive fire of hotel (gas line exploded) * 50-60 killed, several hundred injured * Majority were Pakistan immigrants (ballrooms rented out for Iftar -- breaking of fast at the end of the day) * Diplomats were at the restaurants in the back or in their rooms * A lot of people able to escape * No one claimed responsibility for the event * US said likely al-Qaeda (possible but not super convincing) 2001 Anthrax letters * Sept 18th 2001, five letters sent to ABC news, CBS, CNN, NY Post, National Inquirer Office * By Oct 5th one employee of the Inquirer office died (vomiting, illness, etc) * Oct 9th senators' offices received letters * Became clear letters received had toxins -- had anthrax spores * Letters inside appeared clearly Islamic ("Death to America, death to Israel, Allah is great") * Really no agreement on where the letters were coming from, even once they were identified as anthrax * Clearly targeting the American political structure but didn't actually kill the politicians themselves etc * 1999 report found about how anthrax could be weaponized through the US mail, there was no real evidence the author (Hatfield) was related to the attack -- just a biochemist for the US, he sued the FBI, won his case * Another suspect emerged 2005 ish, biochemist Ivan, leading scholar in his field, studied anthrax vaccine * He began to have a mental breakdown of sorts, admitted to a psych war, committed suicide 2008 * FBI then said it was Ivan after his death * Other investigations, basically said it is impossible to reach a conclusion on the origins of the anthrax based on scientific evidence Lockerbie 1988; Pan Am Flight 103 (kinda) * Four days before xmas 1988, Boeing 747 left Frankfurt headed for Detroit, stopped in London and NY * UN commissioner for Namibia, Volkswagen CEO, students from US, US intelligence people, etc all on the plane * An hour after leaving Heathrow, bomb placed in a checked luggage exploded, blew plane into five large chunks over Scotland * All 270 killed, some people on the ground killed (parts crashed into a neighborhood) * No logical/credible claims → joint US-UK investigation that lasted three years officially, charged two Libyan nationals for their involvement * Able to pinpoint the specific luggage -- bomb built into a boombox packed into a suitcase * Used a type of plastic explosive not generally used for non-military use * Libya denied all involvement, wouldn't cooperate or extradite * UN security council adopted sanctions against Libya that lasted for most of the 1990s * Eventually allowed the two men to be tried in the Netherlands (sanctions affected Libya, eventually gave in), one man found guilty, the other acquitted * During the trial, 9/11 happens... US and other countries become very focused on countries with weapons of mass destruction (Iraq, North Korean, Libya, etc) * Addition to original sanctions, now there was evidence Libya had a highly functioning nuclear weapons program, Bush admin wanted to have it stopped * Invasion of Iraq 2003 sent message to countries with dictatorships / nukes * Libya said they'd give up the weapons program, the US said no want you to come clean about the plane incident, Libya admitted responsibility, that's basically it....

Hoffman "Suicide bombers don't need to be sophisticated, which makes them so dangerous"

It's very easy to commit a suicide act (they're not worried about taking territory, getting out alive -- becomes much more accessible/possible) Hidden and inexpensive

MAJOR turning point in how China saw its ethnic minorities, how ethnic minorities saw themselves as part of China (created massive division)

July 5th-7th, 2009 Uyghurs begin protesting against murders in Guangdong * Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) organizes violent rampage * Over 130 Han Chinese killed * Days later, Han retaliate in the same fashion, killing over 40 Uyghurs * Han VS Uyghur.... Race riot * Organization of violence is what makes some people consider it terrorism -- uprising, ethnic riot? Or organized terrorist attack? Can make either argument = MAJOR turning point in how China saw its ethnic minorities, how ethnic minorities saw themselves as part of China (created massive division)

What is jihad?

Literal translation = struggle, fight, strive In the Quran it's the only true religious justification for violence (in Islam) Only supposed to be called for by a govt leader, leader of a large group of people -- not meant to be used by small groups Designed to protect the religion itself, the world of Islamic followers But people started using jihad as their mission, justification to expel a foreign invader Fundamentalist Islamic leaders calling for jihad to serve their specific beliefs and interests -- claiming to represent all of Islam but in reality they're representing a VERY narrow part of the religion Jihad was never meant to be representative of a specific, narrow viewpoint

Responses to spoiling / how to prevent it (Kydd)

Make sure negotiations between parties trying to achieve peace agreement or something -- keep doors of communication open always, communicate at the first hint of violence, make sure both sides are comfortable providing protection to minority groups and groups terrorists are seeking to represent

Post-1949 China resettlement

Mao essentially wanted to rule over "one China" -- separates and disperses the ethnic Khan (??), the largest Chinese ethnic group (behind the civil war) BIG TURNING POINT IN UYGHUR IDENTITY: Uyghurs who wanted a separate ethnic state post-1949 → many left, moved west to get out of China (Turkey became a large area for ethnic Uyghurs), felt that central Chinese authority wasn't good for Uyghur ethnic population

When the anarchist movement was first developed in the mid to late 19th century, its intellectual leaders were most closely aligned with which other ideological movement?

Marxism

Major terrorism incidents in China (many happened in Urumchi (?), the largest city in Xinjiang)

May 1989: protest by Muslim communities against local government turned violent, injuring 100-200 Motive of protest = Chinese document put out about sex lives of Muslims (statistical info?) but people who were Muslim felt they were being targeted Feb 1992: Urumqi bus bombings, killing three and injurign over twenty Feb 1997: Urumqi bus bombings, killing 9 and injuring 70 March 2001: bombings of 4 apartment buildings in Hebei Province, killing 108 and injuring scores (motive unclear/disputed) Outlier -- man targeted apartment building because his ex-wife lived there so this wouldn't be terrorism BUT there's thought that China was covering up the fact that disgruntled factory workers lived here that were laid off...something like that Jan 2007: Chinese police raid against suspected terrorist training camp leaves 18 suspects and a police officer dead Aug 2008: group of police officers run over and attacked with grenades/machetes, killing 16 Aug 2009: Uyghurs and Han Chinese face off in riots, leaving nearly 200 dead (a majority Han?) and over 1000 injured ***lack of available data, lack of info ^^ (also need to take China's reports with a grain of salt) Crackdown is so intense there virtually is no free press in China (surveillance state in China) QUESTION: is the response to terrorism in China justified considering what they've seen? Is there a link between China's crackdown on terrorism and an increase/decrease in terrorism?

Which elements combined to become ISIS?

Members of Al Qaeda who wished for a more organized insurgency Former Baathist Party members of followers of Saddam Hussein (Hussein himself was not involved but after he was deposed people part of his government / were unemployed went to ISIS (many of them)

If Lake 2002 is correct and one of the ultimate goals of committing a terrorist act is to provoke the target into an extreme response, which of the following does he suggest Amy be the best way for states to react?

Moderate military and legal response to prevent further radicalization

British leaving Palestine

Modern Israeli-Palestine conflict battlelines drawn post-WWII, desire for their own countries/territory Simultaneous Arab and Jewish insurgency targeting British, trying to figure out what they wanted in terms of independence Effectively used marketing, communications, political advantages -- created a wedge between the western powers (one of their biggest objectives was to get Britain and US to disagree and they succeeded) Britain wanted to slowly devolve power etc Calls for independent Jewish state post-WWII, very loud call for it in the US (Jerusalem / Israel) BUT there are many other ethnic groups that also have claim to this area Instead of attacking Palestinian groups Jewish insurgents started attacking British troops -- ultimately achieved their objectives Ex: bombing of King David Hotel 1946 Target was British officials, not civilians but still killed 91 people, injured 45 more Result: attracted world-wide attention to the group's struggle and the worsening situation in Palestine, drew attention to failure of British to put a stop to Jewish terrorism harming Palestine Four main reasons for the British to leave: 1) Arab VS Jewish communities 2) financial and military strain in Great Britain bc WWII -- stretched very thin, colonies no longer profitable 3) international opinion (especially the US) 4) public hanging of British sergeants Two british army sergeants killed by Israeli insurgents, pictures spread rapidly -- highlighted that it was no longer helpful for the British people/country to be there All led to an international agreement to create Jewish state (1947-49; Britain's rule over Palestine formally ended 1948) Persecution of Jewish people weighed on people's minds, motivation for allowing/creating Jewish state Menachem Begin as leader of movement in Palestine The ability to "choreograph violence for an audience far beyond" Groups turning localized phenomenon into global concerns

According to the Global Terrorism Database, which of these countries has not suffered a single terrorist attack within its borders from 1970 to 2018?

Mongolia

The big modern trend/change in terrorism

More ability and evidence of terrorists migrating After a conflict, if a person in the terrorist organization doesn't get caught there's more of a chance of the terrorist taking violence back to their home country or moving to another battle area There's more places in the world for them to hide, creates more opportunities for terrorism today than before (according to Hoffman)

Character traits of left-wing extremism

More women involved (approx 4/10 people involved were women), high education Only talking about the US, eco-extremism and data of people who have been arrested and charged -- there could be some error in the data

Did the bloody end of the Paris Commune did break the will of the anarchist movement in Europe?

NO -- it did NOT end the anarchist wave of terrorism

Nazis and Neo-Nazi

Nazi = affiliated with national ocialist parties before/during WWII Nazi party in Germany during the 30s-40s, American Nazi party During WWII US govt classified Nazi groups as anti-govt, they essentially dissolved as political groups Neo-Nazi Late 80s, early 90s see people starting to ID themselves as neo-nazis Carrying on ideas of fascism, Hitler Hatred of non-white, Jewish people, LGBTQ+, peopel with disabilities 1976-78 Skoki Illinois Nazi party Starting 1976 Illinois chapter of Nazi party decided to have march in Skoki -- one of the most dense Jewish neighborhoods City govt kept trying to deny permits to prevent the march etc -- go to court ACLU supported the neo-nazi group, says freedom of speech actually protects right to march there as long as peaceful, Supreme Court upheld this Didn't end up having march but did have rally in downtown Chicago Holocaust museum in Skoki

Typology of environmental groups

Non-violent democratic activism Ex: Sierra Club, NRDC, Environmental Defense Fund Traditional, environmental lobbying groups Direct action Ex: Greenpeace, Peta Some traditional lobbying but more interesting in very visible, attention-grabbing events Violent and extremist activism Ex: ALF, Earth Liberation Front Very decentralized No clear logos, branding, marketing -- totally focused on extremist activism

Imperfect information leads to uncertainty example

POWER (Kydd -- one of the subjects of uncertainty for terrorism) Relative power between actors is evaluated * US vs North Vietnamese army, in Vietnam war, US much stronger * US thought it would bulldoze BUT Vietnam had no intentions of giving up, US essentially had to give up on the war, withdraw

Social benefits of martyrdom

People feeling like their religion is under attack (maybe not the end of the world but it would be the end of their religion -- this would be the only way to guarantee their passage to heaven / the afterlife) Families get money Spotlight for suicide terrorist -- in life there might not be a spotlight, but in death there is (remembrance; considered a glorious act) Posters hung up around towns of the suicide bombers, essentially promoting it in public ways --> animated video glorifying Palestinian terror attacks posted to TikTok = recruitment tool In some of the more high profile incidents the suicide terrorists are middle class (goes against the idea that highly vulnerable groups are low-class, isolated, etc)

Terrorist groups can have multiple goals

Policy change Status quo maintenance Territorial change Social control Regime change

Policy change

Policy change = broader/lesser demands to change the current actions/laws of a state Goal of Al-Qaeda was to get the US to withdraw (one of their goals) Ecoterrorism (encourage change of environmental laws)

Anonymous terrorist attacks -- main reasons why

Principal-agent problem * When a person is given the power to operate on the behalf of a group, commit acts without leadership approval/instructions, etc Civilian casualties too high * If too many Muslims killed it can hurt the cause esp with Jihadi groups Attacks fails * Doesn't make them look good -- intelligence, doesn't help with recruiting Intent to destabilize target society * Fear * Blame government Real reason: Leaders of terrorist groups typically issue credit-claiming, only claim credit if the expected political return is positive... when the anticipated political fallout is negative, leaders of the group are often reluctant to attribute the violence to their organization *More likely to withhold credit when their operatives attack civilian targets rather than military ones (indiscriminate violence risks undermining the political goals) Attacks on military targets are more likely to be claimed by the leadership AND evoke competing claims of responsibility from multiple groups

Media and terrorism

Pulse nightclub example * Perpetrator working alone (not necessarily in connection to ISIS), killed himself → we don't really know why he was doing it... * And yet he was labeled as a radical Islamic terrorist * Inappropriate → double standard when labeling people terrorists (white people VS POC) * Reports that he was a closeted gay man VS treatment of Dylann Roof 2015 shooting in Charleston Church * Went into all-black church, killed 9 people * White-supremacit mass shooter * FBI director said this wasn't terrorism concretely, firmly... didn't charge him with terrorism (charged with gun and hate crimes) * Interesting to look into the people who are targeted....In this case, POC * VS Pulse Nightclub = LGBTQ+... both are marginalized groups yet one was a terrorist, one wasn't → doesn't really matter the target, just the perpetrator (MI)

Radical right VS extreme right

Radical right: democracy should be maintained, the liberal elites must be replaced Cultural nationalism * Muslim culture is backward and repressive * Western culture must be protected against Muslim culture Ethnic nationalism Extreme right: democracy must be replaced, violence against enemies of the people is legitimate Ethnic nationalism * People of different ethnic origin should not be mixed * White Europeans and Americans have a right to defend their nations form foreign people and cultures * People of different ethnic origin should return to their homelands Racial nationalism * White race as superior * Revolutionary change needed to overthrow Jewish dominance * Inferior races must be subjugated, deported, or exterminated MI: The increase in political polarization with the current administration seems to have solidified the radical right, which provides a massive platform for their ideology (especially considering the development of the internet) that did not previously exist Prof: Political polarization increase in the last few years -- some threads between anti-government sentiment and the president (Trump likes to stoke polarization) There have been increases in violence, race-based threats / violence → there is a connection here

Counter-insurgency tactics

Recognize the threat, isolate groups from facilities/bases and political isolation, eradicate them (location, isolation, eradication) Future: use of technology.... what will surveillance laws look like? -- Mosque mass shooting live-streamed in New Zealand

In K&W's analysis, which two of the five goals of terrorism are the most common?

Regime change Territorial change

Regime change

Regime change = overthrow of the existing government and replacement with one approved/created by a terrorist group (maintaining borders) Taliban (want to take over Afghanistan, be the ruling government essentially)

Regular VS irregular warfare

Regular warfare generally 2 states equal in power Irregular usually non state VS state, different power levels, getting outside support "types of violence conducted by sub-state actors including terrorism and insurgency"

Aum Shinrikyo

Religious Corporation in Tokyo, Japan that used sarin gas in Tokyo subway — First non-government group to use weapons of mass destruction (biological weapons) * Originated in Japan, early 1980s * Wanted to attract upper-middle class, intelligent men (successful in obtaining members that were intelligent etc → quickly became economic powerhouse through businesses they owned) * Originally known as a religion (blended ideas of Buddhism, etc) * Conditioning members not to trust outside people, give over economic prosperity to the group * Weren't committing outright violence for the first few years * 1990 Ausahara (main dude) ran for office, lost → his focus shifted, focus of the group * Less of a cult/crime syndicate -- now wants to take over government of japan and bring apocalypse, became more violent * assassinations via nerve gas 1993-94 * Tried to build an office, wasn't allowed/approved so decided to exact revenge --> truck with aerosolized sarin gas (type of nerve gas) in neighborhood where many city judges lived; 8 people died, several hundred injured YET police still couldn't pin it to the group (confusion on motive, if accident or not...) * March 20, 1995 10 members of the cult got on subway trains in Japan with bags of LIQUID SARIN (immediately evaporates when it meets air) * Broke bags in trains, got off the trains, people in trains exposed and injured/killed (Killed = 13, thousands exposed; most people able to regain full ability) * Group still exists (Asahara dude sentenced to death, many associates also sentenced to death) -- people who took over say they believe in mysticism but not the violence * Some splintered groups still existing in the US, Japan, etc

From Rappoport 2013 regarding the goals of terrorism, "dramatic action repeated again and again would invariably polarize society, and _________ inevitably follows"

Revolution

Why did ISIS lose their territory so quickly?

Russia helping stabilize Assaad regime, allowed Russian and Turkish attacks against ISIS to become more targeted, powerful 2015 ISIS had close to 40,000 fighters on the ground -- not easy to hide Tactics much more public, harder to hide 2017-18 really started pushing ISIS out of their territory Even without their territory ISIS remains a threat Large-scale attacks still around the world and in the Middle East Ex: Easter Sunday (2018?) In Sri Lanka, killed 259 people Still pushing for home-grown attacks

"The most important task for any terrorist group is to persuade the enemy that the group is ____________________ enough to inflict serious costs, so that the enemy yields to the terrorists' demands"

STRONG AND RESOLUTE

Black Hand

Serbian nationalist/terrorist group responsible for the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand which resulted in the start of World War I. * Used iconography to be recognizable * Led to WWI (probably) * Shared common goals with elements of Serbian military * Question of how many Black Hand tactics done because the Serbian govt wanted them to → idea of coordination between terrorist/govt groups

Social control

Social control = suppression of individual rights KKK Anti-abortion terrorism

Martyrdom and suicide terrorism

Standing up and saying of their own volition that they're Christian, destroying idols in Pagan temples, etc There is a bit of a debate over whether or not people who commit these kinds of violent acts (destroying stuff) can be considered martyrs In the last 100, 50 ish years there's been a change -- martyrs by committing violence to protect/further your religion Suicide in all faiths as the worst moral sin.....interesting that martyrdom can be considered violent through suicide and that you could be considered a hero, above the rest of mortals.... Suicide tactics tend to be the most effective when there is a clear difference in military / violent capabilities

Atlantic charter

Statement of European powers goals post-WWII Didn't want territory -- give it back to the people The US and Britain respect form of government of the people / what they want Later Churchill said they didn't mean it for Singapore, etc but too late -- interpreted as colonies can have independence if they wan Eight-point document to formulate the US's and Britain's postwar aims 2nd point: neither Britain nor the US desired to see territorial changes that do not accord with the freely expressed wishes of the peoples concerned 3rd point: pledged both countries to respect the right to fall people to choose the form of government under which they will live

Uncertainties that accompany most revolutions can sometimes help the new state survive

States can't determine how powerful/appealing the revolution will be, so they can't easily determine which is the greater threat: the revolution itself or the possibility that other rivals will take advantage of the resulting chaos to improve their own positions BUT the more typical result post-revolution is a protracted struggle between the new regime and its various antagonists, which ends when the revolutionary government is removed from power Ex: Sandinistas in Nicaragua

Status quo maintenance

Status quo maintenance = support an existing regine or a territorial arrangement against political groups that seek to change it United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (pro-Colombia group) Protestant Pro-British groups in Northern Ireland (wanted Britain to continue control of N Ireland)

The chain of command (during Obama admin) for drone strikes

Step one: choosing a target Start with task force (people aware of target / known militants) → commander → chairmen of the chief of staff → secretary of defence → all the cabinet heads view strike info, can veto or ask for more info → president Step two: taking a strike Back to task force, etc to figure out timing, location, notify ambassador in the area, the government

What does the word jihad literally translate to?

Strive Struggle Fight Exert

What is criminology?

Study of origins of criminals, criminal behavior; comparing offenders; criminal justice system, etc

Big distinction of suicide terrorism to other terrorist efforts

Suicide terrorism is easier and cheaper to commit -- there is less financial cost, don't need to worry about getting out alive

Why was ISIS was able to capture territory in Syria so quickly?

Syria was engulfed in a Civil War, which ISIS took advantage of by attacking Assad's stronghold in Damascus

TRUE of FALSE According to Abrahms 2006, terrorist organizations will sometimes adapt to please their rank-and-file members, even if that means compromising their ideological or political objectives

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE According to Abrahms 2006, terrorist organizations will sometimes adapt to please their rank-and-file members, even if that means compromising their ideological or political objectives

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE According to Jensen 2004, the invention of dynamite was one of the key contributing factors for the development of terrorism and its tactics during the late 19th and early 20th centuries

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE According to Kydd and Walter, nuclear capability is NOT a subject of uncertainty

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE At one point during the US period of eco-terrorism in the 1990s and early 2000s, the FBI cited environmental extremism as the greatest domestic terrorism threat to the US

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE Despite its bloody end, the Paris Commune was a success for the anarchist movement in the sense that anti-establishment groups elsewhere in Europe felt that there was an appetite for a structural change in political and social structures

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE Families of suicide attackers may publicly praise their dead relatives as martyrs because the family can receive financial rewards and physical protection from teh gorup that sponsored the attack

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE Major reason ISIS broke away from Al Qaeda was bc ISIS committed to attacking Muslims while Al Qaeda preferred not to attack muslims

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE The modern Chinese state has been using institutionalized tool slike reeducation camps and forced migration since the communist party seized control in 1949

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE There is no clear mathematical formula that can be applied to determine whether a group can be defined as a terrorist group or an insurgency

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE Tibetan separatists and Uyghur separatists are considered terrorist threats by the Chinese government

TRUE

TRUE or FALSE People with higher incomes and more education are MORE likely to join terrorist orgs

TRUE * But lots of diversity in terrorist groups (esp larger ones) * Terrorists as educated, approx same percentage have uni edu as American population as a whole

Reasons the anarchist wave changed

Technological developments Prominent Russian terrorists traveled extensively; mass transportation Development of dynamite

Territorial change

Territorial change = taking some territory from established state(s) to create a new state OR join another one ISIS (trying to create the caliphate)

How China defines terrorism

Terroism: the use of "advocacy" or "behavior' that "elicit panic in society, endanger public security, infringe upon personal and property rights, or threaten state agencies or international organizations through violence, destruction, intimidation, or other means to achieve its political aims." Essentially = violence with political aims

Conditions favorable to spoiling (Kydd)

Terrorist groups looking to disrupt ongoing peace process, situation where moderates/non moderates trying to negotiate path forward Terrorists pursuing a spoiling strategy are likely to be more successful when the enemy perceives moderates on their side to be strong and therefore more capable of halti terrorism Ex: Iranian revolution Hostages taken at the US embassy -- US and Iranian govt becoming more and more friendly, increasing ties To the Iranian revolutionaries, this was not an appropriate direction for Iran

The one thing all terrorists have in common

They do NOT commit acts randomly or senselessly

Terrorist and irregular warfare campaigns achieve success by gaining an advantage over their adversaries in terms of what four things? (Kiras 2007)

Time, space, support, legitimacy TIME * most important element required for the successful conclusion of an insurgent and terrorist campaign * three phases: the strategic defensive, the stalemate, the strategic offensive * resources can be replenished (ex: Tamal Tigers in Sri Lanka -- persisted for 40 years, now defunct) SPACE * can "make up for" few/limited numbers * exploit the space -- jungle, desert, city, etc (ex: US in Vietnam War, US not familiar with the terrain; ISIS using urban environment for advantage in Mosul, Aleppo in Syria) * if they can control a space they likely have access to natural resources --> replenishing * force-to-space ratio SUPPORT * insurgency can't survive/become legitimate without internal and/or external support * need formidable army (ex: 1917 Russian Revolution overthrew monarchy, installed Soviet Bolshevik state -- Soviets able to quickly install govt bc most Russia troops were in Europe at the end of WWI) * substantial popular support is required to compensate for the resources available to the state LEGITIMACY * must prove to people you're willing/able to lead * insurgency supposed to be for the people, need to be perceived as better than the previous government; Govt brutality allows insurgents to act as avengers of the people * Moral superiority as a cornerstone of all irregular and terrorist theory, especially those fuelled by religious zeal

Why was there an increase in ethno-nationalist terrorism following WWII? (Hoffman)

Two big reasons: 1) Atlantic Charter 1942, 2) defeat of colonial powers, author specifically talks about the fall of the British Empire in Singapore 1942 Fall of Singapore 1942 = worst defeat of the British Empire, defeated by Japanese forces Singapore was a symbol of Western power in the far East -- shattered British/European prestige in Asia

What can be done to combat suicide terrorism?

Understand the motivation, the operational environment (know your enemy essentially) -- trying to attack or delay the group long enough to reduce motivations, effect of attacks, push them away Reduce shrapnel (removing newspaper boxes, changing sidewalk material, giant concrete bollards around buildings to prevent trucks form ramming into buildings)

Militia movement

Unique US phenomenon (specifically bc of the way the US constitution is written → idolizing militias to "birth a nation") Ruby Ridge, Wako events created ^^ Both cases there were people accused of violating federal law, fed govt came in with a lot of force, intentionally or unintentionally ended up killing people, people who thought federalism was becoming too strong saw this as massive overreach by the federal government Grew during Clinton administration, declined during Bush (bc govt friendly towards guns and 9/11 created American unity of sorts -- created greater foreign concern), increased again with Obama's administration Paranoia in these groups that there's people "coming for them"

What does Walt say the likelihood is of ISIS achieving and maintaining a revolution? Why?

Unlikely * undeveloped economy, small population (don't have the power) * ideology restrictive (puritanical, radical ideologies go against western values, ISIS won't be able to gain a significant following) * success in gaining territory 2013-14 really based on confluence of Iraq and Syrian conflict, ideology spreading in teat region, helped them capture that territory -- exporting beyond these borders is so much harder * too few fighters * attacks in the US and Europe have no hope of breeding revolution there * hypothetical spread would fracture ISIS too much

Approximate location of Xinjiang Autonomous Region

Upper lefthand corner of China

Main groups involved in acts of terrorism in China (main focus of Chinese counterterrorism)

Uyghur Separatists Tibetan Separatists ISIS / transnational jihadi terrorism (but China hasn't really been involved in the physical military commitment in the Middle East)

Why did the anarchist movement eventually collapse?

WWI, League of Nations, Emergence of Soviet Union showed power of states was not in question. Destroying the state structure was no longer feasible

Why will ISIS revolution will not spread? According to Walt

Walt's key idea: ISIS is a "small and under resourced revolutionary movement too weak to pose a significant security threat, except to the unfortunate people under its control." p43 Powerful revolutionary states rely on conquest BUT weaker revolutionary states can "hope only to provide an inspirational example" ISIS is nowhere close to being a great power given its small population and underdeveloped economy (will never become one) Successful revolution = wake-up call for nearby states, prompts them to take steps to prevent a repeat Some individuals will succumb to ISIS but it's not enough -- only a TINY fraction of the world's billion-plus Muslims are interested in submitting to the group's brutal discipline ISIS's ideology limits its ability to grow -- vision of a new caliphate is unlikely to capture enough people "Using Twitter, YouTube, or Instagram won't make its core message more palatable to most Muslims"

What are the Uyghur's objectives?

Want an independent country Would be an ethno-nationalist state or could incorporate islamist-jihadi Sunni vs Shia Not really sure if Uygher fall into one or the other

Explain the principal-agent problem as it relates to terrorist groups

When one person (agent) is allowed to make decisions on behalf of another person (principal). Terrorists may act without permission/endorsement from leadership, putting pressure on leadership to either expel disloyal members or change group ideology. Groups are more likely to survive when they follow the social direction of their members.

Conditions favorable to intimidation (Kydd)

When the goal is regime change, weak states and rough terrain are two factors that facilitate intimidation When the goal is social control, weak states again facilitate intimidation The weaker the state, the more successful this approach is

Best responses to intimidation (Kydd)

When the terrorist goal is regime change, the best response to intimidation is to retake territory from the rebels in discrete chunks and in a decisive fashion Clear-and-hold * Forcefully clear territory of terrorists/rebels; hold territory (your forces maintain control); rebuild previous existing or new government in that area to replace anything taken away or added by terrorist groups When the terrorist goal is social control, the best response is strengthening law enforcement

White supremacy VS white nationalism

White supremacists: believe those of European descent are biologically and culturally superior than those who are not White nationalists: oppose multinationalist societies, believe we should have white ethno-states, idea that you should "be in your own country with your own people"

Where are the Uyghurs located?

Xinjiang Autonomous Region

China's surveillance state

Xinjiang in particular getting worse -- leader of the region takes Xing Ping's actions as permission/direction to crack down on Uyghurs * population data collection form (see their religion, frequency of prayer, social capital, etc) * video surveillance, facial recognition very extensive * social credit system (esp last two years -- like money credit but applied to everything in you life like if you j-walk, skip work, etc) --> people who have high social credit basically get human rights

Yitzhak Rabin

Yitzhak Rabin was an Israeli politician, statesman and general. He was the fifth Prime Minister of Israel, serving two terms in office, 1974-77, and 1992 until his assassination in 1995 (jewish) Early 1990s growing hard right domestic voices in Israel against ruling parties that were more center left, labor parties Labor and center-left parties had been in control for 75% of the time ish (firm control of Israeli govt) People becoming more vocal against this in 1990s Two major peace treaties signed under Rabin -- major change in Israeli posturing Rabin was a former military commander, he was very forceful in Israeli military power -- him signing onto peace agreement is very impactful

"The Sheik of the Slaughterers"

Zarqawi (founder of ISIS)

Best responses to provocation (Kydd)

a discriminating strategy that incites as little collateral damage as possible. Countries should seek out and destroy the terrorists and their immediate backers to reduce the likelihood of future terror attacks, but they must carefully isolate these targets from the general population, which may or may not be sympathetic to terrorists

In the context of conflict and terrorism, "spoiling" refers to:

an attack by a group/individual that seeks to derail a possible peace settlement

What is the Turkistan Islamic Party?

an islamic jihadi extremist organization that seeks and independent Uyghur state in Xinjiang

Conditions favorable to attrition (Kydd)

attrition: terrorist seek to persuade the enemy that the terrorists are strong enough to impose considerable costs if the enemy continues a particular policy 1) the state's level of interest in the issue under dispute * States with only peripheral interests at stake often capitulate to terrorist demands (the cost of not withdrawing has to be pretty massive to outweigh the cost of a terrorist attack) EX: 1983 barracks bombing against US by Lebanon -- first and most successful example of suicide bombing in modern era; US essentially pulled out all troops of Lebanon (didn't care enough about their influence in Lebanon to continue despite attack) 2) the constraints on its ability to retaliate * Terrorist organizations are almost always weaker than the governments they target → vulnerable to government retaliation * The more constrained the government is in its use of force, the less costly an attrition strategy is, and the longer the terrorists can hold out in the hopes of achieving their goal * Democracies generally more constrained in retaliation than authoritarian regimes → suicide bombers target democracies exclusively 3) its sensitivity to the costs of violence * Governments that are able to absorb heavier costs and hold out longer are less inviting targets for an attrition strategy * Terrorist organizations are likely to gauge a target's cost tolerance based on the target's regime type and the target's past behavior toward other terrorists * Democracies may be less able to tolerate the painful effects of terrorism than non-democracies

Social networks = principle source of recruits for terrorist orgs, has a _______ recruitment structure

bottom-up (people gravitate to the violent movements NOT in response to active org efforts but instead bc of friends, relatives, neighbors, etc who might already be members) "friends and family social network"

Terrorism may NOT be hindered within an advanced democracy bc:

civil liberties make it easier for extremists to operate and organize without breaking laws

Netwar (Hoffman)

conflicts in which a combatant is organized along networked lines or employs networks for operational control and other communications an emerging mode of conflict and crime at societal levels, short of traditional military warfare, in which the protagonists use network forms of organization and related doctrines, strategies and technologies attuned to the information age "Leaderless" strategy

Some studies suggest there is an inverted U shaped relationship between regime type and prevalence of terrorist attacks which means regimes in between __________________ are most susceptible to terrorism events

democracy and authoritarianism

ISIS's goals

eliminate infidels, impose sharia law worldwide, hasten the return of the Prophet According to Walt "ISIS as a revolutionary state"

Principal-agency theory

lower-level members of terrorist groups will sometimes act in defiance of leadership preferences, including in their targeting choices A member's position within the organizational hierarchy is inversely related to their incentives for attacking civilians --> Lower level foot soldiers often acting against leaders' goals, reason for high number of unclaimed attacks

Belt and Road initiative refers to:

massive infrastructure investments that increase socioeconomic linkages between Euroep, Africa, and China

Ethnic tensions increasing in China 2008ish why?

migration -- "go west" official program to move Eastern Han Chinese to Xinjiang (West) * factory exchanges -- Uyghur move East to work * movements were mostly coerced, resulted in rising ethnic tensions around the country, rates of diversity changing very quickly June 2009: two Uyghurs killed in Guangdong Province after accused of raping a local woman (later found out to just be a rumor) -- all their coworkers beat them to death * Entire country found out about it...next month = major protest launched in Urumqi asking the government to investigate, provide for the families, etc * In China spontaneous protests are very rare...

Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK, means "spear of the nation")

military branch of ANC, Nelson Mandela, sabotage, Rivonia headquarters The African National Congress (ANC) was designated as a terrorist organization by South Africa's old apartheid regime Truth and Reconciliation Commission 1996 * Essentially going over what the ANC, apartheid governments had done --> public reckoning

Natural systems model

people participate in organizations not to achieve their official goals, but to experience social solidarity with other members Natural systems model says the official goals of an organization are NOT equal to the goals of its members * There is often a disconnect between the official goals of an organization and the latent social goals governing this behavior --> PRINCIPAL-AGENCY THEORY Terrorists as social solidarity seekers --> Terrorists are SOCIAL SOLIDARITY MAXIMIZERS

the issues of Uyghur separatism and terrorism have arguably become more transnational in nature since the end of the Cold War, due to the convergence of a number of key factors including:

the collapse of the Soviet Union; the rise of radical Islamism in Central and South Asia (especially Afghanistan); the events of 9/11; the nature of Chinese governance in Xinjiang; and China's increased openness to and integration with the global political and economic order

Terrorism (Kiras 2007)

the sustained use of violence against symbolic or civilian targets by small groups for political purposes, such asinspiring fear, drawing widespread attention to a political grievance, and/or provoking a draconian or unsustainable response What separates terrorism from other forms of violence is that the acts committed are legitimized to a degree by their political nature Terrorists seek attention for their cause to generate domestic and international empathy for the plight that "drove" the terrorists to arms

Narco-terrorism (Hoffman)

the use of drug trafficking to advance the objectives of certain governmets and terrorist organizations

Terrorism (Kydd/Walter, 2006)

the use of violence against civilians by nonstate actors to attain political goals

Gray area phenomenon (Hoffman)

threats to the stability of nation states by non-state actors and non-governmental processes and organizations OR to describe violence affective immense regions or urban areas where control has shifted from legit gov to new half-political, half-criminal powers OR group together in one category the range of conflicts across the world that no longer conformed to traditionally accepted notions of war "threats to the stability of nation states by non-state actors and non-governmental processes and organizations"

Terrorism (Hoffman)

violence or the threat of violence used and directed in pursuit of, or in service of, a political aim * Planned, calculated, systematic act * Specifically designed to have far-reaching psychological effects beyond the immediate victim(s) or object of the terrorist attack; meant to instill fear and thereby intimidate a wider "target audience" **Calling someone/a group a terrorist is unavoidably subjective Terrorists are fundamentally ALTRUIST -- they believe they are serving a "good" cause designed to achieve a greater good for a wider constituency that the terrorist and their organization purport to represent = fundamentally a violent intellectual