POL 370 MIDTERM
Peak Oil Production
"Easy" Oil "Hard" Oil Hydraulic Fracturing (Oil Shale)
ICC and Energy
"ICC believes that the most economically feasible way to address the long-term challenge of sustainable development is through the development, commercialization and wide-spread dissemination of both efficient existing technologies and new, currently non-commercial technologies that can deliver modern energy solutions, improve efficiency and reduce emissions."
International Chamber of Commerce
"ICC membership groups thousands of companies of every size in over 130 countries worldwide. They represent a broad cross-section of business activity including manufacturing, trade, services and the professions." Among ICC members are AT&T, British Gas, Chevron, Citicorp, DuPont, ExxonMobil, Fiat, Ford, General Electric, General Motors, the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Nissan Motor, Norsk Hydro, Procter & Gamble, Sony, and Toyota.
The U.S. and Conservative Islam in Syria
"Most of the arms shipped at the behest of Saudi Arabia and Qatar to supply Syrian rebel groups fighting the government of Bashar al-Assad are going to hard-line Islamic jihadists."
ICC and Global Warming
"Much more can be done to reduce [climate change] emissions through more widespread use of existing technology, but advances will be essential to meet growing energy demand and respond to climate risks. In meeting these challenges business, including ICC members, will play a leading role in the global deployment of the existing efficient technologies and practices, and in research, development and widespread dissemination of advanced technologies that must be created in coming decades."
Global Warming Scenarios
(a) Linear and synchronous response. In this case, the forcing produces a direct response in the climate system whose magnitude is in proportion to the forcing. In terms of global warming, an extra million tons of carbon dioxide would cause a certain predictable temperature increase. (b) Muted or limited response. In this case, the forcing may be strong, but the climate system is in some way buffered and therefore gives very little response. (c) Delayed or non-linear response. In this case, the climate system may have a slow response to the forcing thanks to being buffered in some way. After an initial period, the climate system responds to the forcing but in a non-linear way. (d) Threshold response. In this case, initially, there is no or very little response in the climate system to the forcing; however, all the response takes place in a very short period of time in one large step or threshold. In many cases, the response may be much larger than one would expect from the size of the forcing and this can be referred to as a "response overshoot." The threshold response (d) scenario is the one that most worries scientists, as thresholds are very difficult to model and thus predict. Thresholds have been found to be very common in the study of past climates, with rapid regional climate changes of over 5°C occurring within a few decades. An added complication when assessing climate change is the possibility that climate thresholds contain bifurcations. This means the forcing required to go one way through the threshold is different from the reverse. This implies that once a climate threshold has occurred, it is a lot more difficult to reverse it.
The EU 20-20-20 Global warming Policy
-A 20 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2020 -20 percent of EU consumption energy from renewable sources by 2020 (about 34 percent of electricity) (including 10 percent of non-aviation transport fuels from biodiesel, with an aim toward "second generation" biofuels) -A 20 reduction of energy consumption by 2020 (through efficiency gains) -This target in 2014 was revised to 27 percent of total EU energy to be drawn from clean renewable sources by 2030.
The EU Carbon Trading Program
-Consistent with its effort to move away from fossil fuels and towards more secure energy sources (nuclear; wind; solar), the EU has instituted a permit trading system intended to drive up the price of carbon-based fuels (oil; natural gas; coal). -Permits are required by firms that emit carbon dioxide -Importantly, the EU recently adopted a plan to reduce the number of permits in circulation in the hope that such an action would drive up the price of permits and by implication the cost of using fossil fuels as energy.
Organization for European Economic Co-operation (OEEC), a Commission for Energy
-Hartley report (1956) -- domestic sources of energy, especially its coal supplies -Robinson Report (1960) - inexpensive foreign oil (petroleum finds in Libya and Algeria)
The French Nuclear Response to the Oil Shock of 1973
-In 1974 the French government announced a plan to expand its nuclear program, projecting thirteen nuclear plants of 1,000 Mw each to be completed by 1980. -The long-term plan was to build by 1985 fifty reactors in twenty locations providing 25 percent of France's energy and by the year 2000 two hundred reactors in forty nuclear parks providing more than half of France's projected energy needs. -In the 1980s, France became more nuclear than any other country, deriving 75 percent or more of its electricity from this one source. Today, 59 nuclear power reactors operate in France. -It now has more power than it needs: according to some estimates, France is the world's largest net exporter of electricity, sending billions of kilowatt-hours to Italy and other neighboring countries.
The Origins of the State Imperative of Urban Sprawl
-It is statistics like these that prompts economic historian Elliot Rosen to regard the automotive industry as the "nation's principal industry" by the 1920s . -Another economic historian, Richard B. Du Boff, notes that "during the 1920s, the [automotive] industry became the nation's leader in manufacturing."
The Kyoto Protocol
-The 1997 protocol called upon the United States to reduce all greenhouse gas emissions, including that of carbon dioxide, 7 percent below 1990 emission levels by 2012; the European Union countries by 8 percent; and Japan 6 percent. Overall, industrialized countries were to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 5.2 percent from 1990 levels by 2012. -In 2001 the U.S. withdrew from the protocol.
The 20/20/20 as Energy Security Strategy
-The EU's 20/20/20 policy is cast as an effort to combat global warming (with one goal being a 40 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 emission levels). -Nevertheless, the 20/20/20 policies would have the effect of reducing the EU's fossil fuel usage, and enhancing the region's energy security and autonomy. Consonant with the EU's 20/20/20 energy goals, Germany, as part of its 2011 plan to dismantle its domestic nuclear power plants, is making it a political priority to expand its wind and solar power capacity. The EU's 20/20/20 policy is cast as an effort to combat global warming (with one goal being a 40 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 emission levels). -Nevertheless, the 20/20/20 policies would have the effect of reducing the EU's fossil fuel usage, and enhancing the region's energy security and autonomy. Consonant with the EU's 20/20/20 energy goals, Germany, as part of its 2011 plan to dismantle its domestic nuclear power plants, is making it a political priority to expand its wind and solar power capacity.
The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference
-The conference participants agreed to limit global warming to 2°C. -The U.S. proposed to reduce its greenhouse emissions to 17 percent below 2005 levels. -It failed, however, to make concrete proposals on how it planned to achieve even this modest goal. -This prevented any substantive agreement from being generated by the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference.
Why the European Union?
-The prime impetus underlying the formation of the European Union is energy -In order to thrive and be competitive in the modern world system, (due to a relative dearth of regional fossil fuels) the countries of Europe must form a regional energy strategy
Policy Discussion Groups
-These are venues through which economic elites come together to develop a consensus on policy goals and how to achieve those goals -Contemporary examples: Business Roundtable, Council on Foreign Relations, and Committee for Economic Development
Energy Profligate Transportation
-U.S. oil consumption adds roughly $150 billion to its annual trade deficit -Most of the globe's petroleum production comes from the Persian Gulf - a region fraught with political and military instability (e.g., the Iran Revolution, two Persian Gulf wars)
Urban Sprawl in the U.S. significantly contributes to Global Warming
-automobile usage (including light trucks) in the U.S. results in 45 percent of total global automotive climate change emissions -detached single-family homes consume 23 percent more energy than attached single-family homes, and 68 percent more energy than homes located in multi-family structures (i.e., apartment complexes) -U.S. households are at least twice as energy-intensive as European and Japanese households
The Eurozone
-created in 2003
Per capita urban automobile ownership:
1. U.S.: 604 automobiles per 1000 people 2. Australian cities, 491 3. Canadian, 524 4. European, 392 5. wealthy Asian, 123 6. developing Asian, 102
Advisory Committee on City Planning and Zoning (1920s)
A Standard State Zoning Enabling Act (1924) A Standard City Planning Enabling Act (1928)
Energy and History
A key factor in the evolution of human societies has been energy. One prime reason for this is energy is directly related to labor productivity and the generation of surplus value. Societies relying on human muscle and animal power are low productivity societies. Societies that successfully switched to fossil fuels for energy transitioned to high productivity, are much wealthier, and technologically advanced societies.
What are the Possible Future Impacts of Global Warming?
A problem with global warming is that it changes the rules. So we have to develop new ways of predicting the future, so that we can plan our lives and so that human society can continue to fully function. So we have to model the future. To obtain the most realistic simulations (i.e., models), all the major parts of the climate system must be represented in models, including atmosphere, ocean, land surface (topography), cryosphere, and biosphere, as well as the processes that go on within them and between them. Models that couple together both the ocean and atmosphere components are called Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). For its 2007 report the IPCC consulted the results of multiple runs of 23 different AOGCMs In 2001 the IPCC reported on seven scenarios (i.e., models) depending on the amount of carbon dioxide equivalent in the atmosphere by 2100: 600ppm; 700ppm; 800ppm; 850; 1,250; and 1,500. Remember we are currently at about 380ppm. The seventh scenario was based on maintaining on the atmospheric status quo in 2000. These climate models using the full likely range show that the global mean surface temperature could rise by between 1.1°C and 6.4°C by 2100. Using the best estimates for the six emission scenarios, then this range is 1.8°C to 4°C by 2100. What is significant is that the choices we make now in terms of global emissions will have a significant effect on global warming after 2030.
Mercantilism
A system of political and economic policy, evolving with the modern national state and seeking to secure a nation's political and economic supremacy in its rivalry with other states. According to this system, money was regarded as a store of wealth, and the goal of a state was the accumulation of precious metals, by exporting the largest possible quantity of its products and importing as little as possible, thus establishing a favorable balance of trade.
Answers to Global Warming
Adaptation Mitigation — the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 50 percent over the next 30 years and 80 percent by 2100 Carbon taxes Efficiency — Vehicle, Building, Coal-Fired Power Plants Reduced use of vehicles — curtail urban sprawl (i.e., conservation)
Petroleum and American Global Hegemony
American Hegemony of Oil is the basis of American Empire The Global System of Neoliberalism is predicated on an petroleum system controlled by the U.S.
Instead, however, the federal government actually subsidizes our use of and access to fossil fuels
As noted earlier, historically most of the federal government's fuel related research dollars have gone toward fossil fuels, and not toward the development of alternative fuels. President Ronald Reagan, for example, cut the government's funding of alternative fuel research and development by 80 percent from 1980 levels. The first Persian Gulf War, for example, was a $100 billion subsidy to the oil companies that reap huge profits from the sale of Persian Gulf oil
Urban sprawl and the Great Depression
Automobile consumption collapsed in the wake of the stock market crash in 1929 President's Emergency Committee on Housing - the National Housing Act of 1934 Alfred Sloan - President and CEO of General Motors by the 1920s General Motors sold 50 percent of all automobiles in the U.S. the American Roads Congress W. Averell Harriman (a prominent investment banker) − Historian Sydney Hyman explains, "When the terms of the new housing program were finally agreed to, [Harriman] was expected to 'sell' the program to . . . the business community at large." "A program of new home construction, launched on an adequate scale, would not only gradually provide employment for building trade workers but" more importantly "accelerate the forward movement of the economy as a whole." It was anticipated that "its benefits would extend to everyone, from the manufacturers of lace curtains to the manufacturers of lumber, bricks, furniture, cement and electrical appliances."
A Comprehensive Energy Policy
Biomass methane Ethanol? Wind Solar: Thermal Solar: Photovoltaic Cells - 28.5 percent efficient Geothermal? Ocean Energy Further, the government does not aggressively promote the conservation of energy.
Past Climate and the Role of Carbon Dioxide
By extracting air bubbles trapped in ancient ice, scientists can measure the percentage of greenhouse gases that were present in the past atmosphere. Scientists have drilled over two miles down into both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which has enabled them to reconstruct the amount of greenhouse gases that occurred in the atmosphere over the last half a million years. The results are striking, as greenhouse gases such as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) co-vary with temperature over the last 650,000 years. This strongly supports the idea that the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere and global temperature are closely linked, that is, when CO₂ and CH₄ increase, the temperature is found to increase and vice versa. This is our greatest concern for future climate: if levels of greenhouse gases continue to rise, so will the temperature of our atmosphere. One of the most worrying results from the study of ice cores, and lake and deep-sea sediments, is that past climate has varied regionally by at least 5°C in a few decades, suggesting that climate follows a non-linear path. Hence we should expect sudden and dramatic surprises when greenhouse gas levels reach an as yet unknown trigger point in the future.
Urban Sprawl in the 1920s
By the 1920s land developers began to build around the automobile, which began to sprawl U.S. urban zones This is because automobile-centered urban development tended to bring utility to land that otherwise had limited utility due to excessive distance from business districts or trolley lines Land developers in Los Angeles during the 1920s were particularly aggressive in building around the automobile, which resulted in highly sprawled land development As a result, during this time Los Angeles became the most automobile-oriented major U.S. city - for every 5 residents there were 2 automobiles. Detroit, the next most automobile-oriented city, had 1 automobile for every four residents
China's Emissions
China's emissions of CO2 are massive - 30 percent of current total emissions China has made significant gestures toward a cleaner energy future An expansion of nuclear power A national network of fast rail - 6,800 miles of track Subsidies for clean renewables -- China is believed to build over half of all solar collection equipment. Harvey Blatt reports that "China is already the world's leading renewable energy producer. . . . Its investment in renewable energy increased from $352 million in 2007 to $736 million in 2008 to $34.6 billion in 2009." China "has announced plans to spend $75 billion a year on clean energy." Harvey Blatt, America's Environmental Report Card: Are We Making the Grade?, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2011), 184.
General Effects of Global Warming
Coastline — Rising sea level and erosion Storms and Floods — Greater frequencies Heat Waves and Droughts — Greater frequencies El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — El-Niño conditions have been linked to changes in the monsoon, storm patterns, and occurrence of droughts all over the world. Health — the Pathologies of Heat and Water Stress (the IPCC predicts that by 2025 five billion will experience water stress) — the Politics of Adaptation Biodiversity — Can species adapt to rapid biosphere changes, including warming? — A loss of up to 35 percent by 2050 of biodiversity is predicted in certain regions with high levels of biodiversity Agriculture — The effects of increased carbon dioxide on food production and the issue of adaptation?
Nrdc and the Canadian oil sands
Consistent with Dryzek's point that oppositional groups must "moderate" their "stance to fit with established state imperatives" the NRDC on its website de-emphasizes its opposition to the Canadian tar sands. The NRDC, under the heading Priority Issues, lists "Creating the Clean Energy Future". Engaging this link takes the reader to the link/page Stop Dirty Fuels. On this page, the NRDC is critical of the North American unconventional fossil revolution: "Moving down this road has enormous consequences for the air we breathe, the water we drink, our climate, our wildlands and wildlife. NRDC is actively working to fight the infrastructure that would support increased production and use of these fuels, such as tar sands pipelines, refineries, and mining equipment transportation corridor expansions; oil shale mines; and liquid coal production facilities."
The U.S. and Nuclear Power
During the 1950s and 1960s the American pioneered the development of civilian nuclear energy. It also championed its adoption by its allies.
Thesis of Urban Sprawl, Global Warming and the Empire of Capital
Economic Elites have imposed the imperative of urban sprawl on the U.S. state. This imperative was established in the 1930s, and has been pursued ever since.
Imperative of the State
Economic Growth through Urban Sprawl
How Does Urban Sprawl Foster Economic Growth?
Expands demand for Consumer Durables (retail items expected to last at least three years) Urban Sprawl expands demand for automobiles Due to the larger homes that result from low-density urban development (characteristic of urban sprawl), such development fosters the consumption of such household items as furniture, and electrical appliances (i.e., televisions, radios, computers, etc.)
Other renewables: 7.6 percent
Geothermal Solar Wind electric power Biofuels
Greenpeace USA
Greenpeace USA has - what I found to be - a difficult to locate blog critical of the Canadian oil sands (i.e., not a permanent web page). The critique offered of the tar sands is the risk of spillage.
World Symposium On Applied Solar Energy
Historian Harvey Strum explains that the AFASE (founded in 1954) "initially, . . . consisted of a group of businessmen, lawyers, financiers, and educators from Arizona and California, with funds being raised in the Phoenix area." Among the founders were "Walter Bimson, chairman of the board of Valley National Bank in Phoenix." Strum notes that the "organizers of the AFASE shared . . . [a] free-enterprise approach to energy development, and they believed that 'practical utilization' of solar energy was contingent on American industry's getting involved in solar development." General Chairman of AFASE, Lewis W. Douglas, gave the opening remarks to the symposium. Douglas at the time was chair of the board and director of the Southern Arizona Bank and Trust Company. In his remarks Douglas condemned the idea that "it is the responsibility of the state to distribute scarcities according to the range of priorities of purpose which the state should have the power to determine." In contrast, he spoke in positive tones about "a free and unrestrained application of scientific knowledge, functioning within the dominion of a free society, including the market place in which most economic claims are freely adjusted. Henry B. Sargent was President of AFASE. Sargent spent his entire professional entire in the utility industry, and was executive vice-president of Central Arizona Light and Power and later president of Arizona Edison Co. By 1955 Sargent was president and director of the American and Foreign Power Company. Sargent, speaking as head of AFASE, declared that the "ultimate success or failure" of solar energy "lies largely with the business man." He added that "it is he who translates technological advances into the practical accomplishments which benefit mankind and raises the standard of living and brings about a better understanding among people." The seeming result of this laissez-faire attitude toward solar power was that this form of energy received scant research support from the federal government. In the article, "American Solar Energy Policy, 1952-1982", historians Harvey Strum and Fred Strum explain that "between 1952 and 1970 the National Science Foundation (NSF) conducted almost all solar energy research, averaging about $100,000 per year."
Environment Groups' Response to urban sprawl and climate Change
I highlighted four environmental groups in my 2009 study (Natural Resources Defense Council, the Sierra Club, Union of Concerned Scientists, and U.S. PIRG) and their political advocacy as it relates to climate change because in informal telephone conversations with Washington-based environmental organizations these four were noted as the most active and visible in Washington, D.C. on the issue of global warming and energy. All four have lobbying offices in D.C. In my 2014 study of environmental groups I added Greenpeace because of its work on the Canadian oil sands. In his analysis of interest group inclusion within the policymaking process, democratic theorist John Dryzek explains that "oppositional groupings can only be included in the state in benign fashion when the defining interest of the group can be related quite directly to a state imperative." In other words, according to Dryzek, groups that critique the status quo can only participate in the policymaking process to the extent that the groups' goals are consistent with an objective of the state. This is historically reflected in the behavior of the environmental groups that are active in the formulation of the federal government's climate change regime.
The French Nuclear Response to the Oil Shock of 1973 (2)
In 1974 the French government announced a plan to expand its nuclear program, projecting thirteen nuclear plants of 1,000 Mw each to be completed by 1980. The long-term plan was to build by 1985 fifty reactors in twenty locations providing 25 percent of France's energy and by the year 2000 two hundred reactors in forty nuclear parks providing more than half of France's projected energy needs. In the 1980s, France became more nuclear than any other country, deriving 75 percent or more of its electricity from this one source. Today, 59 nuclear power reactors operate in France. It now has more power than it needs: according to some estimates, France is the world's largest net exporter of electricity, sending billions of kilowatt-hours to Italy and other neighboring countries. It has exported plant design and construction as well, selling its nuclear systems to Belgium, South Africa, South Korea, and elsewhere.
Walter J. Levy and the Canadian Oil Sands
In a 1969 profile of Walter J. Levy, entitled "As Oil Consultant, He's Without Like or Equal", the New York Times noted that "he is readily acknowledged as the 'dean of oil consultants' even by competitors." The profile went on to explain that "there are few, if any, major oil controversies in which Mr. Levy has not acted as a consultant," and that he "has been an advisor to most of the major oil companies, most of the important consuming countries and many of the large producing countries." Emerging North American Oil Balances: Considerations Relevant to a Tar Sands Development Policy (February 1973) Levy foresaw that "the future demand of the United States for secure sources of oil is so large that the United States will look to all potentially available North American resources in due course." Consistent with Levy's supply side energy reasoning (bias), he argued for "longer run" "policies directed at providing incentives for development of North American resources - conventional oil and gas, synthetics [i.e., oil from coal; oil shale; and tar sands], and nuclear power." Levy went on to aver that among the various sources of synthetic oil in North America that Canada's "tar sands would appear to hold out the potential at least of development of larger volumes of production at an earlier date and with somewhat less uncertainty than either U.S. oil shale or coal liquefaction."
Union of concerned scientists
In the case of UCS, clicking on four links (none titled global warming or climate change) leads to a web page: What Are Tar Sands—And Why Do They Matter? Here the point is made that "a gallon of gasoline made from tar sands produces nearly 20% more carbon dioxide emissions than one made from conventional oil." Democratic and environmental ethics would appear to indicate that it is imperative that environmental groups and activists exit the U.S. polity. Instead they should directly and explicitly challenge American grand strategy (i.e., the American Empire). Put differently, leading environmental groups should clearly and unequivocally denounce urban sprawl and the U.S. effort to dominate the world's energy system through policies that have the effect of maintaining global fossil fuel dependency. Government's ostensive commitment to alternative fuels and carbon sequestration technology can be interpreted as symbolic responses to the public's environmental concerns. As already noted, the U.S. government's support of the unconventional fossil fuels revolution (e.g., the Canadian oil sands) seemingly confirms the suspicion that policies directed at greenhouse gas emissions are nothing more than hollow symbols To the extent that environmental activists are included within the policymaking process this inclusion becomes part of the symbols deployed against the public, and works to keep it demobilized on the issue of climate change. The participation of environmental activists in the policymaking process communicates to the broader public that this process is democratic, because it is putatively inclusive of all relevant political perspectives.
The Grand Area and Oil
In the post-World War Two period, the U.S. would strive that all oil bearing regions of the world (save for the Soviet Union) would fall under its domain.
The Sun Oil Company and the Canadian Oil Sands
In undertaking the production of petroleum from the oil sands in the 1960s the Sun Oil Company did not do so for profit - at least not in the near to medium term. A historian of the Sun Oil company, in a book chapter titled "Great Canadian Oil Sands: A Case of Entrepreneurial Error?", notes that by the early 1970s the company "invested $300 million and lost $70 million" on the tar sands project. Importantly, the Sun Oil company was linked to the Alberta's oil sands policy-planning network. J. Howard Pew, the company's longtime chief executive, was friends with Ernest Manning - Premier of Alberta for 25 years. Historian Arthur M. Johnson reports that shaping Pew's reasoning in pursuing the oil in the tar sands was the idea that "consumption of petroleum was outrunning the discovery of reserves and that by the mid-1980s, in the absence of some countervailing development, there could be a serious worldwide crude-oil shortage."
It is unclear whether we can properly dispose of the waste that is produced by nuclear power plants
It is estimated that there are currently 77,000 tons of nuclear waste: each ton of waste emits about as much radiation as 177 Hiroshima atom bombs Plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,400 years The Yucca Mountain Plan
Federal Housing Authority (FHA) - authorized by the National Housing Act of 1934
Kenneth Jackson, author of Crabgrass Frontier, writes that "in practice, FHA insurance went to new residential developments on the edges of metropolitan areas, to the neglect of core cities." As a result, Jackson notes that between the years 1942 and 1968 the "FHA had a vast influence on the suburbanization of the United States." federal mortgage guarantees
Effects of a 2-3°C Global Temperature Increase
Major loss of coral reef ecosystem and other species Large impact on agriculture, water resources and health Significant increase in droughts and extreme rainfalls Up to 74 cm sea level rise in 100 years Terrestrial carbon sink becomes a source, accelerating global warming A major problem is that it is unlikely we can keep global temperature increases down to 2°C, as we have already seen temperature increase by 0.76°C, and even if we kept atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the 2000 levels that would still add at least another 0.6°C. So without doing anything, we are already up to nearly 1.4°C.
Urban Sprawl and the Consumer Durables Revolution
Martha Olney's Buy Now, Pay Later Olney demonstrates that the dramatic increases in the consumption of durables goods exceeded overall increases in income during the pre-Depression Era and the post-World War II period. Conveyed in constant dollars, households between 1919 and 1928 spent an average of $955 on consumer durables, and $3,353 between 1979 and 1986 on consumer durables. Olney explains that "strong growth purchases of automobiles and parts remains evident: average annual purchases for 1919-28 were four times greater than the average for 1909-18, and growth continued through the post-World War II years."
Surprises
Melting of Greenland and/or Antarctica — more research is required on the climatic history of Greenland and Antarctica and on monitoring changes that are occurring now. If the large ice sheets there completely melted, their contribution to global sea-level rise would be as follows: Greenland, about 7m; West Antarctic ice sheet, about 8.5m; East Antarctic ice sheet, about 65m; compared with just 0.3m if all mountain glaciers melted. Even if significant melting does not occur this century, we may have started a process that causes irreversible melting the next one. Deep-ocean circulation — the circulation of the ocean is one of the major controls on our global climate. It maintains the right amount of heat exchange between the northern and southern hemispheres. Scientists have shown that the circulation of deep water can be weakened or "switched off" if there is sufficient input of fresh water to make the surface water too light to sink. There is already concern that global warming will cause significant melting of the polar ice caps, and this will lead to more fresh water being added to the polar oceans. Gas hydrates — below the world's oceans and permafrost are a mixture of water and methane, which is sustained as a solid at very low temperatures and very high pressures. The impacts of global warming include the heating up of both the oceans and the permafrost, which could cause the gas hydrates to break down, pumping out huge amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Methane s a very strong greenhouse gas, 21 times more powerful than carbon dioxide. If enough were released, it would raise temperatures even more, releasing even more gas hydrates — producing a runway greenhouse effect. Scientists really have no idea of how much methane is stored in the gas hydrates beneath the ground: estimates are between 1,000 and 10,000 gigatonnes of gas hydrates, a huge range (compared with only 180 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere). The reason why scientists are so worried about this issue is because there is evidence that super greenhouse effect occurred 55 million years ago. During this hot-house event, scientists think that up to 1,500 gigatonnes of gas hydrates may have been released, producing an extra 5°C of warming. Pressure removal is a much more efficient way of destabilizing gas hydrates then temperature increases, and so huge amounts of methane could be released from the Arctic and Antarctic as land in these regions melt. There is clear evidence from the past that violent gas hydrate releases have caused massive slumping of the continental shelf and associated tsunamis (giant waves). Gas hydrate-generated tsunamis could occur anywhere in the ocean. Because of the size of the Amazon rainforest, it seems that presently it is taking up a large percentage of our atmospheric carbon dioxide pollution, about three-quarters of the world's car pollution. But things could change in the future. As a result of global warming, changing weather patterns could result in the drying out and collapse of the Amazon rainforest — releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. So the Amazon rainforest at the moment might be helping to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas we put into the atmosphere, but ultimately it may cause global warming to accelerate at an unprecedented and currently unpredicted rate.
Early Societies
Muscle Power
War and Peak Oil
National Energy Policy Development Group (2001) - led by Vice-President Dick Cheney A government group that argued that increasing U.S. oil demand required increasing access to petroleum supplies. The U.S. Conquest of Iraq
The Weak Ecological Modernization of U.S. Urban Sprawl
Nuclear Solar Wind Power Eschewing Smart Growth and Conservation
Panel on the Impact of the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy
Numerous fossil fuel firms and trade associations helped write the panel report. Among them were the American Petroleum Institute (trade association); the American Gas Association (trade association); Appalachian Coals, Inc.; Gulf Oil; National Coal Association (trade association); National Petroleum Council (trade association); Shell Oil; Texas Co. (oil firm); Standard Oil of California; Standard Oil of Indiana; and Standard Oil of New Jersey. The panel pressed that "the urgency associated with this [atomic power] program requires that the technological resources of atomic power be fully explored with high priority." Under the heading "International Consequences of the Growth of Atomic Power" the Panel speculated that "in the uncommitted areas of the world, American leadership in making atomic power available could be a strong influence in guiding these areas toward the course of freedom" (i.e., the American camp). While hydroelectric power is relatively clean, its creation nevertheless creates distortions in local ecosystems
The Failure of COP 21 (Paris 2015)
On the eve of COP 21 U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was quoted saying the following: December's global warmingagreement was "definitively not going to be a treaty". The New York Times recently noted a possible (if not likely) scenario in 20 to 30 years: "the greatest fear is a collapse of food production, accompanied by escalating prices and mass starvation." "Scientists also worry about other wild-card scenarios like the predictable cycles of Asian monsoons' becoming less reliable. Billions of people depend on monsoons to provide water for crops, so any disruptions would be catastrophic."
Melting Ice at the Poles
One of the biggest unknowns of global warming is how much the massive ice sheets over Greenland and Antarctica will melt. A key indicator of the expansion or contraction of these ice sheets is the sea ice that surrounds them. The state of the cryosphere (or global ice) is important, as shrinking of ice on land causes the sea level to rise. Sea-ice draft is the thickness of the part of the ice that is submerged under the sea. Ice draft in the 1990s is over a meter thinner than four decades earlier. The main draft has decreased from over 3m to less than 2m, and the volume is down by some 40 percent. In addition, in 2000, for the first time in recorded history, a hole large enough to be seen from space opened in the sea ice above the North Pole. In 2007, satellites revealed the biggest retreat of arctic sea ice ever recorded. Measurements of the size of Greenland suggest that it is shrinking, by over 1,000 gigatonnes of ice since 2003, particularly at its coastal margins. The two glaciated poles make the temperature gradient, or difference between the poles and the equator, extremely large, from an average of about +30°C at the equator down to -35°C or colder at the poles. This temperature gradient is one of the main reasons that we have a climate system, as excess heat from the tropics is exported both via the oceans and the atmosphere to the poles, which causes our weather. Professor James Hansen of Columbia University suggests that if we reach 450 ppm carbon dioxide then we may have passed the tipping point for the irreversible melting of Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheet. Hansen suggests that, if we are to save the ice sheets, we need to return to a global level of 350 ppm as quickly as possible.
The Rise in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide During the Industrial Period
One of the few claims of the global warming debate that seems to be universally accepted is that there is clear proof that levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have been rising ever since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Atmospheric CO₂ has increased from a pre-industrial concentration of about 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) to over 400 ppmv at present, which is an increase of 160 billion tons, representing an overall 40 percent increase. To put this increase into context, the ice core evidence shows that over the last 650,000 years the natural change in atmospheric carbon dioxide has been between 180 and 300 ppmv. The variation between warm and cold periods is about 80 ppmv - almost the same as the CO₂ that we have put into the atmosphere over the last 100 years. The empirical record demonstrates that the level of CO₂ that we have already caused in one century is comparable to the natural variations which in the past took thousands of years.
International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation
Organized under the aegis of International Atomic Energy Agency in the 1970s (composed of nuclear scientists from around the world) Observed that nuclear weapons proliferation can/will proceed with or without a plutonium powered global economy Argued for the internationalization of nuclear energy - including plutonium A global plutonium energy system would mitigate global warming The U.S. expressly rejected the internationalization of nuclear energy
A Supply Side Response to the Oil Crisis
Particularly noteworthy for a discussion centered on the Canadian oil sands is the fact that the Twentieth Century Fund's task force on "United States Energy Policy" in 1977 "recommed[ed] an extensive program of government-supported research and development for new energy sources." The task force specifically pointed to oil shale and synthetic oil/gasoline (derived from coal).
As discussed in our section on air pollution regulatory policy, these fuels when burned create large amounts of hazardous air pollution and greenhouse gases
Particulate matter: 36 percent Hydrocarbons: 37 percent Carbon monoxide: 83 percent Sulfur oxides: 84 percent Nitrogen oxides: 95 percent
The Ecological Modernization of Urban Sprawl
Proponents of ecological modernization hold that through the development and deployment of technology capitalism can be rendered environmentally benign Alternative fuels for automobiles, such as ethanol, hydrogen, and electricity, could potentially replace gasoline and reduce climate change emissions, as well as allow urban sprawl to persistent
The U.S. has the most sprawled urban zones in the world
Ratio of U.S. urban automobile use: 1. Australia, 1.70 2. Canada, 1.70 3. Europe, 2.47 4. wealthy Asian cities, 7.50 5. developing Asian cities, 6.04
U.S. Government Global Warming Policy?
Reflective of the imperative of urban sprawl, the government does not seek to curb its massive climate changing emissions by reforming its sprawled urban zones Instead, consistent with the position of the WBCSD and the ICC, the government (at all levels) has sought to rely on technological solutions (e.g., alternative fuels) to abate its greenhouse gas emissions and address potential shortages in petroleum supply
Alberta Local Growth Machine and the Oil Sands
Research Council of Alberta During much of the 20th century the provincial government "would direct the oil sands effort." This effort included financing demonstration projects and private sector ventures.
Sierra Club
Similarly, after a few links into its website, the Sierra Club takes aim at unconventional fossil fuels. On its webpage, Dirty Fuels, the club promises to "Fight the expansion of tar sands, oil shale, deep-water drilling, and other high-carbon, high-risk fuels. We will protect our coasts, our air, and water."
The Perils of Alternative Fuels to address Global Warming
Technologies to replace fossil fuels are uncertain: hydrogen, solar, and wind Alternatives to fossil fuels can result in higher CO2 atomspheric levels - most specifically ethanol Alternatives to fossil fuels can be environmentally dangerous - e.g., nuclear The most assured and environmentally benign manner to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to reform urban sprawl in the U.S.
Sea Level
The 1993 to 2007 data clearly show an increase of over 40mm in global sea level. Between 1961 and 2003 the global average sea level rose by 1.8mm per year, with the fastest rate being observed between 1993 and 2003 of 3.1mm per year. The 1993-2003 rate is made up of the following contributions: thermal expansion of the ocean contributed 1.6mm (~50 percent); Antarctic ice sheet 0.21mm (~7 percent); Greenland ice sheet 0.21mm (~7 percent); and glaciers and other ice caps 0.77mm per year (~25 percent); with approximately 0.3mm per year (10 percent) unaccounted for.
History of Western European Energy Policy
The Armand Report (1955) — Nuclear Power The Hartley Report (1956) — Domestic Coal Towards a New Energy Pattern in Europe (The Robinson Report 1960) — A Turn to the World Oil Market In the case of automobile transportation, however, Western European countries have historically instituted more restrictive policies. Haugland and his associates, experts on European energy, point out that in Western and Central Europe "the share of taxes in transport fuel—in particular for gasoline—is generally the highest of all end-use prices. In Europe the tax share in unleaded gasoline [for example] is substantially above the actual production costs, ranging from 50 to 75 percent of the end-user price."
The Unconventional Fossil Fuels Revolution in N. America
The Failure of COP 21 (Paris 2015) The ostensive commitment to the Ecological Modernization of Urban Sprawl is precisely that - i.e., ostensive (symbolic) This is in light of the American government's role in this revolution and the failure of global business leaders to critique it.
What is the IPCC?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 jointly by the United Nations Environmental Panel and World Meteorological Organization because of worries about the possibility of global warming. The purpose of the IPCC is the continued assessment of the state of knowledge on the various aspects of climate change, including scientific, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts and response strategies. The IPCC does not undertake independent scientific research, rather it brings together all key research published in the world and produces a consensus. The IPCC is recognized as the most authoritative scientific and technical voice on climate change, and its assessments have had a profound influence on the negotiators of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol. The meetings in the The Hague in November 2000 and in Bonn in July 2001 were the second and third attempts to negotiate the implementation of the Protocols laid out in Kyoto in 1998. President Bush pulled the US out of the negotiations in March 2001. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force finally on February 16, 2005. It could only come into effect when Russia ratified the treaty, thereby meeting the requirement that at least 55 countries, representing 55 percent of the global greenhouse emissions, signed up to it. As of April 2008, 178 countries out of a total of 192 recognized by the UN have ratified the treaty, leaving the US as the only major country not to have signed up to Kyoto. The IPCC is organized into three working groups, plus a task force to calculate the amount of greenhouse gases produced by each country. Each of these four bodies has two co-chairpersons (one from a developed and one from a developing country) and a technical support unit. Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. Working Group II addresses the vulnerability of human and natural systems to climate change, the negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to them. Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change, as well as economic issues. The latest reports from these three working groups were published in 2007, and approximately 400 experts from some 120 countries were directly involved in drafting, revising, and finalizing the IPCC reports, while another 2,500 experts participated in the review process. The IPCC calculates the warming (i.e., heat trapping) capacity of a carbon dioxide molecule at 1, and has determined that its atmospheric heat trapping property stays constant for 200 years. Methane by 2005 (CH₄) had increased in the atmosphere to 1774 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) from a pre-industrial concentration of 700 ppbv. This represents a 250 increase. The heat trapping capacity of atmospheric methane is calculated by the IPCC at 72 times that of a carbon dioxide molecule. Over 100 years this capacity declines to 25, and to 7.6 by 200 years. The anthropogenic (human-caused) sources of atmospheric methane are fossil fuels (release of natural gas), rice paddies, waste dumps, and livestock.
Policy Discussion Groups and the Oil Crisis of 1973
The Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on United States Energy Policy The Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on the International Oil Crisis
Policy Discussion Groups and the Oil Crisis of 1973 (2)
The Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on United States Energy Policy The Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on the International Oil Crisis
A U.S. Nuclear Energy Monopoly?
The U.S. pursued nuclear energy and its export because it could potentially be monopolized and relied upon for hegemonic purposes.
U.S. Energy Consumption
The U.S. relies heavily on fossil fuels for energy Oil: 38.4 percent of all energy used in the U.S. Natural Gas (the cleanest fossil fuel): 24 percent Coal (the dirtiest fossil fuel): 22.6 percent
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
The WBCSD is made up of number of global corporations which are headquartered all over the world. The WBCSD has corporate members drawn from 8 regions of the globe: Western Europe, Central/Eastern Europe, Africa/Middle East, North America, Latin America, Japan, Asia, and Oceania. Among its members were Renault, Total, Volkswagen, Fiat, Statoil (Norway/Petroleum), Volvo, British Petroleum, Shell Oil, Texaco, Mitsubishi, and Toyota. According to its website, the WBCSD is currently a "coalition" of 200 "international companies." Its "members are drawn from more than 35 countries and 20 major industrial sectors." The WBCSD also "benefits from a global network of about 55 national and regional business councils and regional partners."16 In a 2003 WBCSD document, entitled Energy and Climate: The WBCSD's Itinerary, its author(s) outline the steps necessary to address global warming as follows: "in the short term, focus on energy efficiency; in the medium term, sequestration of greenhouse gasses as a path to a sustainable energy future; and begin work on the long term energy solutions, cleaner fuels and alternative energy sources" In a more recent document (2007), entitled Policy Directions to 2050: Energy & Climate, the WBCSD asserts that: "Reducing the energy intensity of the global economy and the GHG [greenhouse gas] intensity of energy will require major breakthroughs in energy efficiency, renewables, next generation nuclear, clean coal, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and mobility. Such breakthroughs must be developed and then deployed." (emphasis in original)
Nuclear power produces energy through radioactivity, and this process creates large amounts of dangerous radioactive waste
The accidental release of this radioactivity poses a significant threat to human life Three Mile Island Chernobyl Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant
Energy Policy
The amount of energy we utilize as a society is directly related to the amount of economic activity (Cahn p. 109). Federal policy with regard to energy policy is, in many regards, no policy. It largely relies on the market to determine the types of energy our economy will utilize Therefore, despite the fact that fossil fuels emit large amounts of air pollutants and that these fuels are largely going to be exhausted within the near to medium term (e.g., peak oil), the federal government has weakly instituted plans for renewable cleaner fuels.
Who Produces Greenhouse Gases?
The first major source of carbon dioxide is the burning of fossil fuels, since four-fifths of global carbon dioxide emissions comes from energy production, industrial processes, and transport. These emissions are not evenly distributed around the world; North America, Europe, and Asia emit 90 percent of the global industrially produced carbon dioxide. Moreover, historically the developed nations have emitted much more than less-developed countries. The second major source, accounting for one-fifth of global carbon dioxide emissions, is as a result of land-use changes. These emissions come primarily from the cutting down of forests for the purpose of agriculture, urbanization, or roads. When large areas of rainforests are cut down, the land often turns into less productive grasslands with considerably reduced capacity for storing CO₂. Here the pattern of carbon dioxide emissions is different, with South America, Asia, and Africa being responsible for over 90 percent of present-day land-use change emissions. This raises important ethical/political issues because it is difficult to tell these countries to stop deforesting when historically this has already occurred in much of North America and Europe before the beginning of the 20th century. It is the developed countries who historically have emitted most of the anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases, as they have been emitting since the start of the industrial revolution in the latter half of the 18th century. Less developed countries, as they economically develop and burn more and more fossil fuels, are increasing their emissions of greenhouse gases at a huge rate. China, for example, has now become the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world, overtaking the USA in 2007. In large part of because of growing emissions from the historically less developed countries like China and India, according to International Energy Authority projections, between 2000 and 2030 the world will emit more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than between 1750 and 2000. On a per capita basis, Chinese emissions, however, are four times lower than those of the US, who are top of the per capita list. India's per capita emissions are roughly 1/20 of those of the US. All the draft international agreements concerning cutting emissions since the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 have not included the developing world, as this has been seen as an unfair brake on its economic development. Any future international climate change agreement will have to include the developing world.
Urban Sprawl in the U.S.
The hydrofracking revolution The Canadian oil sands -- It is noteworthy that oil exports from Canada (including oil sands dilbit) to the U.S. have already increased 3.8 million barrels per day from 2.5 million barrels in 2008 - while imports from OPEC countries have significantly declined. Low gasoline/energy taxes No national plan for fixed rail transit
The Earth's Natural Greenhouse
The temperature of the Earth is determined by the balance between the input from energy from the Sun and the release of some of this energy back into space. Certain atmospheric gases are critical to this temperature balance and are known as greenhouse gases. The energy received from the Sun is in the form of short-wave radiation, that is in the visible spectrum and ultraviolet radiation. The Earth's surface becomes warm and as a result emits long-wave "infrared" radiation. Greenhouse gases trap and re-emit some of this long-wave radiation , and warm the atmosphere. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide. Without this natural greenhouse effect, the Earth would be at least 35°C colder.
Economic Elite Theory
The top 0.5 to 1.0 percent of income earners This group is the most politically potent interest group in the U.S.
What is the Evidence for Climate Change?
There are four main data sets which have attempted to reconstruct temperatures for the northern hemisphere over the last millennium: tree rings, corals, ice cores, and/or direct measurement of past temperatures from boreholes. It should be noted that the different data sets compare well with each other, which gives added confidence that we are seeing real temperature variations in these reconstructions. It can be clearly shown that temperatures, at least for the northern hemisphere, have been warmer in the 20th century than at any other time during the last 1,000 years, revealing the so-called "hockey stick." The mean global surface temperature has increased by 0.74°C ±0.05°C over the last 100 years (1906 to 2005), and by 0.76°C since 1850 if the average between 1850 and 1899 and 2001 and 2005 is taken. Indirect indicators, such as glacial shrinkage, provide independent support for observed warming. Warming in the Arctic has been double the global rate in recent decades.
Why is the World unable/unwilling to confront the disaster of global warming?
There are two key, proximate obstacles to a meaningful global warming treaty: Urban sprawl in the U.S. China reliance on cheap coal
What is Dangerous Climate Change?
There is scientific and political consensus that the average global temperature should not increase more than 2°C about the pre-industrial average. Participants of the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference agreed to this goal. Below the 2°C threshold, there seem to be both winners and losers due to regional climate change.
U.S. Petroleum Supply Policy
Through supply side policies the federal government has sought to keep petroleum prices low enough to allow for the maintenance and growth of urban sprawl The federal government responded to global petroleum shortfalls created by the oil shocks of the 1970s by applying its political and military capabilities to ensure that ample supplies of crude oil flowed onto the world market
Liberal Demand Side Oil Policy
U.S.: $2.26 per gallon of gasoline Great Britain: $6.17 Germany: $5.98 France: $5.68 Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency (2005)
Historical U.S. Government Attitude Toward Solar Power
While the corporate community was expressing its strong support for government (i.e., the AEC's) financial aid for the development and deployment of atomic power the 1956 report Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, economic elites in November 1955 were noting their hostility toward government support of solar power.
Automobile Consumption in the 1920s Fluctuated Greatly
While the overall trend in automotive production during the 1920s was upward, market downturns caused significant production declines in 1921, 1924, and 1927 the automobile was mostly a luxury item leading into the 1920s U.S. urban zones were compact and served by inexpensive trolley systems
T he Contemporary U.S. Automotive Market
With a third-less population than Western and Central Europe, the U.S. consumes 2 million more automobiles annually (15 million versus 17 million, respectfully), and, at least until recently, half of all automobiles purchased in the U.S. were of the highly profitable SUV and light truck varieties. Indicative of the international importance of the U.S. automotive market, Japanese automakers Honda and Toyota derive two-thirds of their overall profits from sales in the U.S. U.S. consumers, excluding government and businesses, purchase close to 20 percent of the world's total economic output
Economic Elite Policy Discussion Groups and Global Warming
World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) - 170 Multinational Corporations International Chamber of Commerce (ICC)- 6000 worldwide business members Both these organizations advocate technology as the answer to global warming and oil depletion
The other major sources of energy in the U.S.
are nuclear power (7.9 percent) and hydroelectric power (3.1 percent)
With 4.5 percent of the world's population
automobile use in the U.S. consumes over 10 percent of global petroleum production.
The public policymaking process is not democratic
because the key issues of urban sprawl and automobile dependence are kept off the agenda, and now the question of unconventional fossil fuels is also kept off the federal agenda (e.g., the increasing rail links between the Canadian oil sands and American refineries)
The other major greenhouse gas
is atmospheric nitrous oxide (N₂O). Its warming property is 289 that of carbon dioxide; 298 over 100 years; and 153 after 200 years in the atmosphere. The amount of atmospheric nitrous oxide was at 275 ppbv (pre-industrial concentrations) and is now (2005) at 319 (a 15 percent increase). The sources of nitrous oxide are fertilizers, industrial processes, and fossil-fuel combustion.
Environmental groups promote/emphasize
technology and alternative energy as the means to reduce greenhouse gasses, these environmental groups and activists predominately advocate for the ecological modernization of U.S. sprawled urban zones - consistent with the stance of the American government and corporate policy groups. Major U.S. environmental groups are glaringly silent on American foreign policies geared toward the world oil system. Thus, arguably leading environmental groups are symbolically (and safely) incorporated into the American polity.
Despite the fact that fossil fuels emit large amounts of air pollutants (as well as greenhouse gases)
that these fuels are largely going to be exhausted within the near to medium term (e.g., peak oil), the federal government has weakly instituted plans for renewable cleaner fuels.
With the ongoing development of the Canadian tar sands and expanding oil and gas shale production,
the U.S. government is signaling that it is not at all considering (the imperative of) ecologically modernizing its economy. Instead, it is literally relentless in pursuing the state imperatives/goals of maintaining urban sprawl and energy hegemony - regardless of the costs of doing so (i.e., catastrophic global warming).
Task Forces Policy Advice
the prime policy advice of these groups in response to the oil shock of 1973 was for the U.S. to seek petroleum outside of the OPEC nations no mention of the automobile and oil dependency created by urban sprawl
