Pol Sci 204 Exam 2

"Unilinear" Claims of Modernization Theory

(Chen & Lu) Emphasizes the relationship between economic modernization and political democratization. As modernization unfolds in a society, the level of the individual's income, education, socioeconomic mobility, and freedom valuation markedly increase. Promotes democratization & strengthen democracies.

Military Regime

A regime in which a group of military officers decides who will rule and exercises some influence over policy and personnel.

Authoritarian Resilience

"Capacity of the state to govern effectively" with NON- democratic institutions.

Personalistic Regime

"One- man" rule, in which the ruler is relatively unconstrained by institutional structures or supporters (typically relatives, cronies, and co- ethnics) in making policy and personnel decisions.

"Contingent" Claims of Social Forces Theory

(Chen & Lu) Relationship between economic development and democratization is dynamic. Orientation of middle class toward democracy is contingent upon some salient sociopolitical & socioeconomical conditions. As these conditions change, the middle class in a certain society will shift it's orientation toward democratization accordingly. Some conditions: middle class de/independence on the state, perceived socioeconomic well- being, political alliance w/ other classes, it's own class cohesiveness, and fear of political instability.

Levitsky & Way, "The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism" & "Linkage versus Leverage"

(International Factors Theory) acknowledge that domestic factors are the crucial causes of democratization, they point to the role of international factors. Linkage is a more important factor than is leverage. Offer a more restrictive definition for democracy. Reserve the term "competitive authoritarianism" for authoritarian regimes in which contestation exists but in which the electoral, legislative, media, and judicial arenas of contestation are limited in ways that favor incumbent power-holders.

Lispet "Some Social Requisites of Democracy"

(Modernization Theory) identifies a syndrome of modernization associated with economic development, including industrialization, urbanization, wealth, education, and the spread of media. Modernization leads to support for democratization through the changes it is thought to bring in individual attitudes and values. Emphasizes tolerance, while other modernization theorists focus on the "civic culture" values of interpersonal trust, life satisfaction, and a sense of competence, as reported by Huntington.

Communication Linkage

The flow of information, includes cross- border telecommunications, internet connections, and the degree of western radio and television penetration and coverage.

Social Linkage

The flow of people across borders, includes migration, tourism, refugees, and diaspora communities, as well as elite education in the West.

Bellin, "Contingent Democrats: Industrialists, Labor, and Democratization"

(Social Forces Theory) "Level of economic development alone cannot account for democratization." Echoing Gerschenkron, highlights that in late-developing countries the state plays a greater role in industrialization and economic development. Suggests that capitalist class dependence on the state is more important than capitalist class fear.

Chen & Lu, "Democratization and The Middle Class in China"

(Social Forces Theory) use data from a public opinion survey conducted in China to test hypotheses about middle class status and support for democracy. Find that membership in the middle class, employment in the state apparatus, and satisfaction with socio-economic status are all negatively correlated with support for democracy. "Those who belonged to the middle class were much less likely than those who were in the lower class to support democracy and democratization in China."

Nathan, "Authoritarian Resilience"

(Strategic Elite Theory) Provides more details on China's single-party regime. Argues that institutionalization (including rules governing leadership succession and meritocratic promotion of officials) contributes to the resilience of authoritarian regimes and means that such regimes are less likely to democratize in the short term.

Geddes, "What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?"

(Strategic Elite Theory) Using game theory- reasons that, because military officers highly value the integrity of the military as an institution, military dictators are more likely to engineer their own exit from office and initiate transitions to democracy. Personalist regimes concentrate power and wealth in the dictator and his family and cronies. Such regimes have a narrow support base and are more likely to face violent overthrow with a lower likelihood of transition to democracy. Military regimes are the most likely to transition to democracy; personalist are the least likely to transition to democracy, and single-party regimes are somewhere in the middle. Single-party regimes are the most durable type of authoritarian regime.

Sociological Definition

(based on occupational categories) Middle class- professionals, managers, and white- collar office workers. Working class- "blue collar" factory workers.

Marxist Definition of Social Classes

(based on relationship to the means of production) Bourgeoisie (middle class)- owners of the means of production under capitalism. Proletariat (working class)- those who have only their own labor power in a capitalist system.

Linkage

A form of external pressure influencing the type of political regime. The density of ties and cross- border flows between a particular country and the US, the EU, and western- dominated institutions. 5 dimensions: Economic, Geopolitical, Social, Communication, and Transnational Civil Society.

Single- Party Regime

A regime in which the dominant political party constrains the top leader in making policy and personnel decisions and institutionalizes support by controlling the career paths of officials and the distribution of benefits to supporters.

Democracy

A regime that holds regular, meaningful, free and fair elections and provides protections for civil liberties.

The Legislative Arena of Contestation

Authoritarian Regimes: Legislature either doesn't exist or is thoroughly controlled by ruling party that conflict between legislature & executive is unthinkable. Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Legislatures tend to be relatively weak. Incumbents may try to circumvent or shut down legislature, but tend to be costly especially in international arena. Occasionally become focal points of opposition activity as a place for meeting & organizing and (if independent media exists) as a public platform to denounce regime.

The Media Arena of Contestation

Authoritarian Regimes: The media are entirely state- owned, heavily censored, or systematically repressed. Leading TV & radio stations are controlled by govt. or close allies, and major magazines/ newspapers are either prohibited by law or de facto eliminated. Journalists who provoke the ire of the govt. risk arrest, deportation, or assassination. Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Independent media outlets are not only legal but often influential, and journalists- frequently threatened and periodically attacked- often emerge as important opposition figures. Executives often seek to suppress independent media outlets using subtle mechanisms- bribery, selective allocation of state advertising, manipulation of debts & taxes owned by media outlets, fomentation of conflicts among stockholders, and press laws that facilitate prosecution of independent & opposition journalists.

The Electoral Arena of Contestation

Authoritarian Regimes: elections don't exist/ are not seriously contested, elections are noncompetitive, opposition forces don't present serious electoral threat to incumbents. Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Elections are regularly held but electoral process is characterized by large- scale abuses of state power, biased media coverage, (often violent) harassment of opposition candidates and activists, and lack of transparency. Elections are competitive (major opposition parties and candidates usually participate) and generally free of massive fraud.

The Judicial Arena of Contestation

Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: Routinely attempt to subordinate the judiciary, often via impeachment, or more subtly through bribery, extortion, & other mechanisms of cooptation. In some cases, govt. resort to threats & violence. Combo of formal judicial independence and incomplete control by executive can give maverick judge's an opening.

Hegemonic (Levitsky & Way)

Exercising dominance in the world order and promoting a particular set of norms, ideas, and practices. (L&W refer to "Western liberal hegemony")

Counter- Hegemonic

Exercising influence in contra- distinction to the dominant order and promoting an alternative set of norms, ideas, and practices. (L&W refer to authoritarian powers like Russia and China)

Modernization Theory

Hypotheses 1: economic development leads to support for democracy. 1a: economic development creates "civic culture attitudes" that lead to democracy.

Strategic Elite Theory

Hypotheses 3: Under certain conditions, the strategic decision- making of elites lead to democracy. 3a: Military regimes are more likely to transition to democracy. 3b: Personalist regimes are less likely to transition to democracy.

International Factors Theory

Hypotheses 4: pressure from liberal international forces contributes to democratization. 4a: the greater the density of ties and flows of trade, investment, and contacts between established democracies and non- democracies (linkage), the greater the support for democratization. 4b: The higher the dependence on established democracies for foreign aid (leverage), the greater likelihood of democratization.

Social Forces Theory

Hypothesis 2: classes whose economic interests are dependent on the authoritarian state are less likely to support democracy. 2b: Where the capitalist class fears the impoverished lower classes, it is less likely to support democracy. 2c: Where organized labor is economically dependent on state benefits, it is less likely to support democracy. 2d: Where organized labor holds an "aristocratic," privileged position in the formal sector, it is less likely to support democracy.

Geopolitical Linkage

Includes ties to western governments and participation in western- led alliances, treaties, and international organizations. (Most important source of western linkage.)

Economic Linkage

Includes trade, investment, credit, and bilateral and multilateral aid flows.

Leverage

Incumbent govt.'s vulnerability to external pressure for democratization. Pressure is exerted in a variety of ways: positive conditionality (EU membership), punitive sanctions (aid, withdrawal, trade sanctions), diplomatic persuasion, and military force. Rooted in size/ strength of countries states and economy.

Social Classes

Key actors in social forces theory. Marxist & Sociological definitions.

Competitive Authoritarianism

Levitsky & Way- A civillian regime in which democratic institutions exist in form but not in substance, because media, legislative, electoral, and judicial institutions are so heavily skewed in favor of current power holders.

Transnational Civil Society Linkage

Local ties to western- based nongovernmental organizations, religious groups, and party organizations.

Comparative method: Mill's methods used together.

Mill's method of difference. Mill's method of agreement. Tentative hypothesis: Causal factor (q) → Outcome (y)

Democracy (Levistsky & Way)

Offer a more restrictive definition, a democracy guarantees civil and political liberties with universal suffrage, and holds free & fair elections to select the authorities who actually govern- without oversight by religious or military authorities.

Consolidation of Democracy

The process by which a new democracy becomes institutionalized and likely to endure.

Democratization

The process that led from authoritarianism to democracy.

Institutionalization

Understood either in the current sense as behavior that is constrained by formal/ informal rules, or in the older sense as consisting of the adaptability, complexity, autonomy, and coherence of state organizations.