POSC 356 Final

The meaning of "One Country, Two Systems" for Hong Kong's relationship to China

although chinese soverignty over HK would be recognized, beijing promised that it would not impose socialism or direct communist party rule on the SAR and the capitalist system and way of life would not be changed for at least fifty years --> a consittutional principle formulated by Xiaoping, the paramount leader of the PRC there would be only one china, but distinct chinese regions such as HK and macau could retain their own captialist economcic and politcal systems

Joint Declaration on Hong Kong (1984)

between china and britain signed by PRC and UK --> PRC government stated that it had decided to resume the exercise of soverignty over HK in 1997, UK declared it would hand over HK --> one country , two systems in effect --> sino british joint declaration: the agreement stipualted that under chinese rule that HKSAR would enjoy a high degree of autonomy, except in matters of foreign relations and defense, and that the social and economic systems as well as the lifestyle in HK would remain unchanged for 50 years HKSAR shall be directly under the authority of the CG it shall be allowed to have executive, legisltative and independent hudicial power english may also be used

The main arguments in Shelly Rigger's chapter on Taiwan (in Politics in China)

--> taiwanese society has a deep desire for international recognition (click click click craze) (one of the world's largest economies) --> 2-28 incident: uprising of protests due to economic/ social disastifaction with KMT --> KMT used both economic and political means to try to win over the support of the taiwanese through nonviolent land reform in rural areas, local elections, and export industrialization 1986, dangwai: outside the party KMT opponents created the DPP - taiwan is the only country in the world that has all the atrributes of a state- government, population, territory, except international recognition (they have de facto indepdence but not legal independence) - since its democratic transition, taiwan's relaitonship with mainland china has changed radically toward a more relaxed view of the PRC - chen shui bian of DPP wants increased economic engagement but Lee of KMT was wary of unification --> taiwanese way of if their economics aren't mixed, they will lose out - status quo of neither independence nor unification was the preference S: PRC hopes to incorporate taiwan into a chinese nation state w beijing as its captial while taiwanese wants to preserve their island's democracy ( taiwanese set on civic nationalism: shared commitment to freedom and democracy is what defines them) --> taiwan strait will require patience, flexibility, confidence, and good will on both sides MAIN ARGUMENT: taiwan will continue to look for international recognition where they can find it

Article 23 in the Basic Law for Hong Kong and its significance and the implications for politics in Hong Kong (HK lecture)

1st elements of democracy introduced by the british but brake by PRC - one country two systems since handover 1997, own legal systems with rights such as freedom of assembly and free speech --> HK's mini constitution , the basic law says the ultimate aim is to elect the chief executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committtee in accordance with democratic procedures --> since 97, marginalization of the pro democracy opposition in the legislature, they agree with the HK government on the interpretation that HK basic law article 45 indicates universal suffrage as the ultimate aim. However, they differ on the pace of implementing universal suffrage --> chinese government had promised 2007 direct elections for chief exeucutive by 2017, but in august 2014 china's top legislative committee ruled that voters would only be able to choose from a list of two or three candidates slected by a nominating pro beijing committee for democracy camp: proof that HK is a sham democrracy led to protests(the umbrella revolution BUT government considers beijing's decision a major step foward in the development of Hong Kong's society

The 2008, 2012 or 2016 presidential election in Taiwan in comparison to the 2000 and 2004 elections (PPT slides and readings)

2004 election was specifically unique/abnormal: 2 candidates ran together reelection of president chen shui bian who was unpopular, first time a member of the non KMT --> DPP attempted assassination 2004: incumbent dpp president and vp, chen and annette lu ran again backed by pan green , ran agaisnt lien,. Tone of election was negative and personal, atrributed to the similarity of both ticekt platforms. significance: 2004: - high tide of negative campaigning - poloarization of electorate and candidates identify and loyalty to taiwan still an issue shooting of chen potential threat from prc a key issue: is chen closer to JFK or hitler post 2004: ma ying jeou positions himself as a force for stability and cross strait peace

The PRC's soft power in Taiwan (chapter in Soft Power book)

2018-2016: china adopted soft power approach toward taiwan through economic integration to foster goodwill, faced challenges local identity strengthened, youth protests erupted ad pro indepedence DPP returned to power (failed bc china demanded soft power responses before allowing soft power attraction to take effect causing skepticisim) soft power resources over taiwan: only has economic soft power over taiwan, shown by taiwanese willingness to work in china, while this willingness to immigrate/study in china is low some ppl enjoy chinese economic benefits, BUT resist integration as it relates to identity or politics --> rigid enforcement of one chine principle blurs the line between attraction and COERCION, causing negative views of chinese soft power --> lack of flexibility in allowing taiwan autonomy in its international economic engagements. --> explaining china's soft power over taiwan: PRC's dilemma on one hand allowing taiwan greater economic integration w the world might strengthen its resistance to the mainland's political agenda, while on the other hand, not providing freedom undermined China's soft power over Taiwan

The "February 28, 1947 Incident" in Taiwan and why it's important

2:28 incident: uprising of protests due to economic / social dissatisfaction against KMT government ; KMT government violently suppressed (arrests, executions, violence) --> post 2-28 marked start to white terror era of martial law and political repression - highlighted repressive regime under KMT and disproportionate influence of the 49ers Significance: massacre marked the beginning of the White terror in which tens of thousands of other taiwanese went missing, died , or were imprisoned; one of the most important events in taiwan's modern history and was a critical impetus for the taiwan independence movement

Do Confucius Institutes Belong on American Campuses? (from The China Questions 2)

Confucious institutes and chinese students and scholars associations are tied to the CCP through the United front work department - CI violate basic principles of american education and their presence on campus diminishes chinese students and scholars exercise of these principles and increases the potential for coercion and constraints on expression for students and scholars of both nations --> challenge should BE met with reinforcement of america's own principles of academic freedom, not reciprocity (which would ban CIs, by treating Chinese individuals and orgs in the US the same wya americans are treated in China) --> US should reject censorship and gov oversight of academic progams, which might restric CI to off campus status, goal of any restrictions on CI should be to protect our compartive advantage in ACADEMIC FREEDOM not to mimic the restrictive environment of chinese higher education

Factors in Taiwan that favor or disfavor (re)unification with the mainland

I: china believes despite taiwan's political separation, it remains a part of china in terms of territory and soverignty E; in favor: - more opportunities for young people , to do business in the mainland (always about the economy) - mainland reducing the # of tourists china send to taiwan - unoffical economic sanction, growing power of the mainland and global competitiveness - mainland controls taiwan's international space, US would chose the side of mainland, unfiication is likely if china keeps getting stronger cross strait stability disfavor: - nearly 74% of the taiwanese public supprots tsai's china policy , no political imperative for her to change course anytime soon - win of DDP bc of growing sense of identity and increasing caution towards china in taiwan --> 1992: consensus an acceptance of one china reached with ma and the kmt but never recognized by tsai or the DPP 60% of taiwan residents consider themselves taiwanese and not chinesse S: if taiwan moves towards independence could start a huge international conflict

The key points in The Economist article, "Decoupling Comes to Science" (Economist handout)

I: growing scientific and technological prowess of china, focusing on its increasing dominance in scientifici publications, esp compared to the US, notes the tensions between the two countries e: 1) china's scientific risE: china surpassed US and EU in the # of scientific papers published esp in health and natural sciences 2) political tensions and technological competition: increasing dismay in the US over china's rise = tariffs, rules, and subsidies to limit china's high tech firms * era of globalization and free trade has shifted to a focus on "decoupling" national security and friendshoring decoupling= shift away from the prev era of globalization and free trader where nations were interconnected economically and collaboratively --> now growing trend of disengagement and reducing interdependence 3) impact on academia: new rules and political tensions are affecting collaboration between researchers from china andUS 4) decline in collaboration: less jointly written papers by US/ chinese researchers and less visas for chinese academices in the US = less scientific cooperation significance: strained collaboration between china and us in academia esp in scientific reasearch has broder implications for both countries, decline in joint efforts may hinder scientific progress and knowledge exchange impacting institutions in both nations

China's hukou system (from Invisible China)

I: household registration system, forming a impenetrable wall between china's urban and rural people ( china enforces this divide through law, resembling a state sponsored caste system) -> affects access to social services, education, and health care, leading to undesirable choices for rural parents 1) staying in villages w limited opps 2) leaving children behind in rural areas while working in cities 3) bringing children to cities and facing barriers to education S: system is inefficient, china should bring more rural students into urban public schools to enhance cost effectiveness and success bc it is bringing unnecessary suffering at individual and national levels, need to reform its policies to boost broad based human capital

Why Is Chinese Popular Culture Not So Popular Outside China? (Ch 41, The China Questions II by Rosen)

I: limited success of chinese popular culture, esp in film, outside of china - lack of reciprocity despite China's openness to foreign popular culture and substantial investments in soft power efforts - struggle for international recognition like south korea and india E: limited success due to several factors: - created for domestic audience: chinese popular culture, including film is primarily created for a domestic audience = more appealing to the chinese diaspora - contradiction in objectives: desire for international success and the need to control the message for poliical stability - patriotic film themes: successful chinese films are patriotic, aligning w government focus on plitical socialization - CCP approval and dragon seal: requirement for approval creates skepticism abroad - efforts to enhance appeal: attempts to make chinese films more appealing, such as casting hollywood stars or acquiring hollywood assets have faced challlenges and criticism s: political nature of chinese soft power is very evident, both controlling and limiting the country; as long as beijing prioritizes politics and the domestic audience, the limited success of chinese popular culture abroad is unlikely to change

The Taiwan-PRC-US triangle (most clearly discussed in Rigger's chapter in The China Questions 2, BB handouts, chapters on Taiwan in Soft Power, Politics in China III)

I: taiwan strait is perceived as a critical pt in US china relations, involving taiwan, the people republic of china and the US - us played a crucial role in delivering taiwan to the ROC , during the cold war, taiwan became a frontline ally against communist expansion --> due to its importance to both china and US, taiwan has burdened the relationship between the two power E: china considers taiwan as an integral part of its terrritory and has been unwilling to reject the use of force to settle the taiwan issue, --> Taiwan chose to balance china by aligning itself w/ US to avoid submission or destruction, us suppports a one china policy but opposed to any move that could change the status quo in the taiwan strait by force, s: while both beijing and washington often emphasize positive engagement and dialogue, divergent interests of china and the US over taiwan along with the contest for domination in east asia, have remained a focal pt of contention that could send the 2 powers on a collision course, us relations with taiwan are a function of taiwan's policies towards china --> to stay indepdennt it needs to strengthn itself diplomatically primarily though US relations, remains taiwan's sole protector

Compare and contrast mainland China's relationship with Hong Kong and Taiwan (handouts, Politics in China book, Soft Power book, China Questions 2 book, and lectures)

II: China's relationship with Hong Kong and Taiwan are both contentious and in a state of negotiation. E: Taiwan: China believes that there is "one China" and that Taiwan is a part of mainland china, while the people of Taiwan tend to disagree and those who subscribe to "one China" believe that it should be ruled in Taipei. The 1992 consensus states there is one china but people still disagree which party is in charge. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, totaling more than $46 billion since 1990, have led to U.S.-China friction and an upsurge in bellicose rhetoric across the strait. Beijing has been trying to forge a better relationship with Taiwan by creating economic linkages that maybe to costly for Taiwan to dismiss, thus creating one China. Beijing also is militarily preparing for a conflict with Taiwan and Taiwan is also preparing. Hong Kong: Until 2047, Hong Kong will operate under the "one country, two systems" philosophy. They operate as very different countries with different languages, currencies, cultures and freedoms. 40% of citizens asked identified with being more Hong Konger than chinese. Comparisons: Both SARs of China -- giving extra privileges to political and economic policies comparative to mainland rule. HK and Taiwan both promote freedom of press, critical to PRC's views on censorship of press Both fearful of limitations on liberties with full integration in PRC, loss of cultural identity, and economic virtues. Both experienced major political shakeups in 1990s ("Handover" for HK, transition to democratic elections + civic rights in Taiwan). Contrast Taiwan has held democratic elections since 1990s, HK still working to find a system for direct elections that finds agreement in Beijing. Taiwan handles military affairs (purchases US equipment) and foreign affairs with countries that recognize it (21 UN nati

South Korean and Japanese views of China (Rozman's chapter in the Soft Power book)

Identity: 2 approaches to spreading a country's soft power: leadership model and community model In Japan: chinese soft power reached a peak in the mid 1980s, high in mid 1990s, fell in late 1990s and mid 200s to early 2010s In korea: reached a peak in the early 2000s and revived in 2013-2015 but bows to it in 2004-5 , 2008-2010 and 2016 most severe Argument: each shares a confucian heritage but allied with the US, concluding China's hard power grows, soft power matters less to it Elaborate: Comparisons center on 3 pts in time: 1) identity gaps were least as China's soft power peaked, 2) when gaps were growing as its soft power fell 3) 2010s when gaps were widest China has long more enjoyed soft power in SK than japan Significance: china had "golden opportunity" to capitalize on Japanese and korean progressives aspirations for balancing dependency on the US, pursuing regionalism inAsia and affirming some version of asian values. Prioritize soft power w new thinking appreciative of japan and cultural receptivity to a newly popular korean dramas at a time many koreans trusted china → 2004 stifling the new thinking toward japan before arousing massive demonstrations , case soft power aside, → under Xi Jinping china has put even more effort into vilifying its neighbors allied to the US, doubling down the castigating Japan , alienated asian countries contaminated by "universal values" South Korea: Sk responses to china's effort to find common cause against japan for historical transgressions , but when xi jinping carried this too far in seoul national university in 2014, there was backlash , by early 2017 views of japan were more favorable ** china has a different notion of soft power → sinocentric, demands deference and respect for china's political and cultural preferences, excludes an orientation

"The Rise and Fall of the World's Most Successful Joint Venture" (handout)

Identity: Relationship between US and CHINA: . This relationship, once seen as symbiotic, has evolved into a trade war, with both countries imposing tariffs and seeking to reduce dependence on each other. Elaborate:The shift is driven by geopolitical tensions, accusations of unfair trade practices, and a changing perception of China, especially under President Xi Jinping. Both countries are now adapting their supply chains, with U.S. companies moving production away from China, and Chinese businesses seeking alternatives for technology they can no longer acquire from the U.S Significance: The article acknowledges the Biden administration's efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese industry for strategic reasons, especially in areas like computer chips. However, it also points out the challenges of fully disengaging from China, given the complexity of global supply chains and the widespread use of Chinese components in products manufactured in other countries

The key takeaways from the meeting at APEC between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden (handout)

Identity: Xi attends APEC to avoid signaling China's isolation. China's domestic economic challenges and unexpected isolation prompt global engagement. Elaborate: Xi's Objectives: Convey China's openness for business. Counteract export restrictions. Address perceived constraints on China's development from U.S. alliances. U.S. Objectives: Maintain a level of relationship, especially on global challenges. Revive military contacts. Address economic issues, human rights concerns Significance: skepticism About Chinese Commitments: Doubt on relying on China's promises due to contradictions between statements and actions. China-Russia Relations: Xi-Putin meeting indicates continued support for Russia's perspective. Russia viewed as a valuable partner for China. Chinese Preference in U.S. Election: Reported preference for chaos-inducing Trump over the tougher Biden administration

Why do Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell use the title Invisible China for their book?

Identity: highlights problems that often remain invisible in the face of China's rapid economic rise Elaborate: Natalie hell and Rozelle goes on about the 3 structural issues in China - the hukou system, decentralized funding of education and health, and short run growth incentives for local leaders - but besides this they mention how countries like China are falling behind due to factors that are invisible in the face of China, but should be no longer invisible to them (which can lead to economic downturn, stagnation and even collapse) Examples of Invisible issues mentioned: Health issues in rural schools are critical factor contributing to the persistent gap between rural and urban learning Significance: What should china do? Needs to ensure that all young children from birth to age five, are given everything they need to develop a healthy cognition for a lifetime Have all healthcare and nutrition Should work to overcome the pervasive issue of poor quality vocational high schools especially in rural areas Eliminate political barriers that keep children out of highest quality schools Face and eliminate these "invisible barriers" so that they dont come down to the worst case scenario where they are not able to go back and reverse, massive effort to boost human capital asap

What is Xi Jinping's vision of a new world order? (handout

Identity: key points from the Belt and Road Forum held in Beijing, where China's leader, Xi Jinping, outlined his vision of reshaping the global order. Xi emphasized China as an alternative to U.S. leadership and highlighted a close partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at expanding Beijing's influence through infrastructure projects, was central to the forum. The leaders criticized the U.S., portraying themselves as builders of a "fairer, multipolar world." The geopolitical alignment between China and Russia challenges American dominance and may influence conflicts like Israel-Hamas. Elaborate: The conference was virtually absent of European Union countries, largely because of the divisiveness of Russia's war in Ukraine Represented instead were nearly 150 developing nations. China has disbursed close to $1 trillion through the Belt and Road initiative, largely in loans, to build power plants, seaports, and other infrastructure across Asia, Africa and Latin America, but some countries are finding their debt obligations onerous. question of how far China and Russia's alignment extends has come into focus in the question of how the world should respond to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which is becoming another wedge between Washington and Beijing So what are they doing? Trying to curry favor in the middle east( most notably in afghanistan) signal a shift away from China's stated policy of noninterference in another country's internal affairs → allows criticism against domestic policies to die down a bit (HK and tibet) China's stance will play well in the muslim world Significance: "They're doing this as a way to signal to the Global South that China will support those countries in a way that they probably shouldn't expect Western countries in general,

How has China changed under Xi Jinping and why is this potentially dangerous? (from Kevin Rudd's article in Foreign Affairs posted on Blackboard)

Identity: new form of Maxist nationalism- politics to the left, economics to the left, and foreign policy to the nationalist right Elaborate: Bases his thinking on historical materialism → China's move to a more advanced stage of socialism , CCP members to demonstrate loyalty not only to the party but also to Xi personally More nationalism → replaced traditional caution and risk aversion that were the hallmarks of China's foreign policy during the Deng era (his goal is for china to become the preeminent Asian, Significance: → not completely secure, quest for common prosperity through redistribution is likely to shrink economic growth over time → declining business confidence will reduce private fixed capital investment in response to growing perceptions of political and regulatory risk Weaknesses → long term structural trends: a rapidly aging population, shrinking workforce, high levels of debt → question is whether Xi can allow correction to recover the significant slowing of economic growth

China and the "Middle Income Trap" (from Ch. 1 Invisible China)

Identity:China today is not a rich country. It may be nearly the world's largest national economy, but its per capita income remains strictly middle of the pack Elaborate:the very small number of countries that have made it out of middle- income status in recent decades— the graduates— all have very high levels of high school education. WHAT IS IT??? The result is that many middle- income countries do not accumulate the human capital they need while they are still middle income. So long as they are in that stage, lower levels of education work just fine. Then, if they are lucky and their growth pushes wages high enough that they might soon count as a high- income country, the lack of human capital in the labor force undermines this progress, leaving them stuck in a deadly trap Significance:China's top leader, Xi Jinping, proclaimed that China had entered a "new era of modern economic development. → denies that they are still in this trap (forbids people to say the word

The improved relationship between the mainland and Taiwan under the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou (from Politics in China, Third Edition, the chapter in the Soft Power book, my lecture and PPT slides)

Ma ying jeou: a KMT politician w law degrees from NYU and harvard and former mayor of Taipei, elected president in 2008 and 2012 before MA: president lee teng-hui (1988-2000KMT) cross-strait connection = special state to state relationship , he did not want taiwan to be roped into a unification that it did not want, angered the PRC, which tightened the stranglehold on taiwan's diplomacy --> taiwanese citizens are feeling less and less chinese and more taiwanese During Ma: by 2008: unification became so unpopular that even Ma, promised not to move toward it, revealed how entrenched the status quo had become, during Ma's term PRC began to soften its approach by expanding economic cooperation, as there was little it could do to reverse this trend except continue to promote social and economic integration --> direct flights for the first time in 2010, historic meeting of ma and xi in 2015 --> sunflower movement 2014, young protesters were unhappy w the KMT's handling of cross strait relations invaded the legislative chamber in order to protest against the cross strait service trade agreement after ma: tsai ing wen DPP president elected promised to maintain the status quo of de facto independence while slowing down the fast paced rapprochement seen during ma's term , rejected the PRC's 1992 consensus, which outlined on the "one china" principle but with different interpretations by the two sides, led to decreased economic engagement from beijing who even demanded airline companies to change their websites to identify taiwan as taiwan, china

How does Suisheng Zhao in The Dragon Roars Back differentiate among the different Chinese leaders?

Mao Zedong: revolutionary crusader --> confronted foreign powers to secure the PRC's regime and borders , maintained a charismatic leadership style and suppressed opposition and dissent ruthlessly, challenged institutional constraints Deng Xiaoping: pragmatic Strongman --> emphasized peace and development as the era's themes and aimed to avoid war with superpowers, focused on institutionalization, HuJintao and Jiang zemin: transactional leaders --> handpicked by deng, maintained deng's low profile guidance emphasizing peaceful development followed collective leaderhip rules, held the foreign and security policy portfolio as first among equals in the politburo standing committtee , relied on advisors and experts facing new and complex foreign policy challenges --> more pragmatic Xi Jinping: supreme leader --> assertive and centralized leadership has reshaped china's domestic and international posture reflecting a reneweed nationalism and confidence, abandoning collective leadership, involves micromanagement, overseeing various policy decisions, departing from low profile approach

China's playbook for choking off and finally taking Taiwan (handout)

NYT 2022 article: china aims to asset control over taiwan, employing military strength (PLA) and signaling its intentions through recent exercises - blockade strategies: china could potentially use a blockade, either limited / violent as a means to isolate and weaken taiwan = cut them physically off - if efforts to peacfully unify fail, they plan to forcibly take taiwan w the PLA E: military exercies: china fires missiles toward taiwan as political signaling of their capabilities and confidence in the PLA blockade: china considers both limited and violent blockades, with the former seeking economic and political pressure and the latter as a potential precurser to a full invasion s: - growing tensions: the increasing military activity and excercies indicate growing tensions between china and taiwan, raising the risk of conflict information warfare: china's emphasis on information warfare and cyberattacks highlights the multifaceted nature of potential conflict, impacting not only military but also info about economic domains super power confrontation: risk of superpower confrontation poses a significant threat with potential consquences for regional stability and global relations

What has and has not changed in Hong Kong since July 1, 1997, according to Professor Rosen's lecture

On July 1, 1997 "the handover" (as referred to internationally) or "the return" (as referred to in China), transferred the sovereignty of Hong Kong from the United Kingdom to the People's Republic of China · A survey by the Hong Kong Journalists Association reported that 87% of respondents said access to information had been limited and obstruction of news coverage had increased in the past 5 years. Elaborate: "What hasn't changed) The people's liberation army : after handover, was the last time most HK saw PLA soldiers on their soil , the military's presence has been largely invisible (they first prophesied that PLA soldiers would be visible) Hong Kong's currency: predicted that within the 2 years of the handover China would introduce capital controls and replace currency. BUT no, HK dollar remains pegged to the US dollar Judicial system Black robes and horsehair wigs (HK court system is an obvious inheritance of Britain), little has changed since the handover: english is still used in the courts and legislature Civil rights: many worried that chinese rule would presage a crackdown on HK's civil libertie, it remains a far freer place to speak and publish than the mainland WHATS changed: Emigration : hundred thousands of people left town in the years before the handover. That river is showing signs of reversing course, 2005 ⅓ of the 200,000 ppl who left HK for canada before 1997 had been lured back by the booming economy

How does China see America? (from The China Questions 2 and the NY Times article on Xi Jinping's views of the US)

The China Questions 2: I: love and hate relationship with America, rising tensions grew between the US and China through trade, technology and cyberspace (and in East Asia), there used to be more positive perception as the beautiful country but it is now contrasted with deep resentments (particularly toward American foreign policy and perceived hegemonic tendencies) Both sides: chinese admire America's higher education system, especially seen by international students (with popular culture on the rise) However, decline of this interest was due to exaggerated propoganda from Beijing and tougher US policy toward china --> on the good light Biden presidency could be opportunity to rethink the relationship, manage competition reasonably while cooperating. NY Times: Xi Jinping has spread grim views on US: - xi argued that as china grew stronger western powers such as the US sought to subvert the Communist party's power and contain china's influence , faster china developed the greater the external shock, (Xi expresses desire to stabilize relations, BUT underscores his unchanged judgement of western countries efforts to contain and suppress China. S: change of cooperative coexistence between US and China, addressing common challenges like climate change.

Why does Jessica Chen Weiss entitle her Foreign Affairs article, "Don't Panic About Taiwan"?

Why? exaggerated concerns about an imminent chinese invasion of taiwan could become a self fulfilling prophecy --> chinese leaders historically avoid starting wars amid domestic challenges and prefer non conflict measures, WEIS challenges the notion of diversionary aggression stating that domestic challenges are unlikely to prompt china to launch a war. US policymakers need to strike a balance between deterrance and provocation, CAUTIONING against symbolic displays --> mutual efforts for resolution may not suffice for peace: alternatives to conflice must remain viable, recommending assurances to Beijing about not promoting Taiwan's permanent separation , washington is advised to avoid provocative language

Taiwan's presidential election in January 2020 (PPT slides and lecture)

dentity: Runner ups were: Tsai Ing wen (DPP) , Han Kuo - yu ( Kuominang), James Soong (PFP) → interesting in that blue han kuo was on the rise and then suddenly opinions were more in favor for tsai Ing wen Elaborate: Produced a landslide victory for Tsai Ing wen as president (her campaign worked as ppl were more wary of China's intentions , Han visit to the liaison office in HK as an indication of Han's lack of resolve to prevent Taiwan from becoming the next HK → The Trump administration has taken action to strengthen US relations with Taiwan and bolster its international standing. Efforts are aimed at highlighting a thriving democracy in Asia and countering china's attempts to weaken the global diplomatic status of Taiwan Significance: President tsai vowed to preserve the island's sovereignty in the face of beijing's intensifying efforts to bring it under its control, → xi jinping has warned taiwan that unification was inevitable, and younger people MORE KEEN on economic ties with US than mainland CHINA but supporters of KMT more wanting to secure ties with CHina

Why Should Americans Care About Hong Kong? (from The China Questions 2)

central theme revolves around the struggle for democratic rights, autonomy and the impact of china's growing influence on HK's political and legal systems e: 1) national security law's outlawing the promotion of separatism are defined SO BROADLY that anyone anyplace in the world who might advocate for HK's high degree of autonomy could be targeted : even actions by americans in the US could lead to arrests and long prison sentences if they passed into chinese territory 2) national security law has implication beyond politics and human rights -->impact on individuals globally, and its consequences for international businesses, universities, and journalists, operating in or related to HK 3) WHY CARE? its prodemocracy movements reflect rights and values that US espouses and HK's fate sheds light on Beijings commitment to upholding international agreements and maintaining human rights norms , HK is also a test case for the US: how do we use our influence for good? how do we respond to HK is a measure of who we are ourselveS? significance: - global implications, economic and academic impact, human rights and democracy, taiwan and regional dynamics (Hk situation serves as a signal to taiwan, it raises questions about the future autonomy of other regions under chinese influence) role of the US: passage suggests that how the US responds to HK's changing politics is a measure of its values and influence

Why does Suisheng Zhao entitle the last chapter in The Dragon Roars Back, "From Revolutionary State to Revisionist Stakeholder"?

chapter summary: examines how chinese leaders have exploited the post WW2 order constructed under US; PRC was not included, mao zedong as a revolutionary leader aimed to overthrow the US led order ; deng xiaoping's opening up benefited enormously from the order, china has become a revisionist power and demanded reforms in global governance revolutionary : Mao's china was a revolutionary state, as western countries attempted to ostracize and contain china, mao took a revolutionary posture attempting to overthrow the order, deng xiaoping opens china to outside owrld and systems= economic growth, revisionist: china under Xi is a revisionist power, china wants to obtain a position commensurate to its power status and make the world order more reflective of the 21st century balance of power (rather than replacing it)

The key themes in the chapter on the Chinese economy in the book Party of One (pp. 119-147)

chinese economy: - 2015: china's stock market soaring in 2015, described as uncle xi's bull market --> bubble burst and the chinese currency dropped - to stop the financial bleeding, CCP officials launched the most heavy handed state intervention in chinese stock markets - xi seemed set on economic liberalization - xi has emphasized top level design of the economy since taking power --> leading china away from deng's model of bottom up innovation and interation with global markets - xi wants to roll back china's drift toward western capitalism and forge an interventionist state - china faces economic slowdown and could turn toward market oriented reforms but wont because the only thing that matters to xi is party control - deng shifted toward reform and opening jiang and jintao continued economic liberalization - western companies now forced to make concessions to CCP to do business in china ( pressures at home, disneyland)

Compare Chinese and American soft power (Rosen chapter in the Soft Power book)

chinese soft power: - china + rest of asia held less than 4% of world's soft power - soft power is very closely linked to efforts of the government - soft power is not their primary goal; contradiction of committing extensive resources to promote china's soft power while prioritizing domestic stability - china's highest priority remains domestic, maintaining social and political stability WITHIN china american soft power: - US held 43% of worlds soft power but declined post trum presidency - soft power is not closely linked to the government - ideas of two americas: hegemonist america and mre domestic US - after trump's inauguration, survey respondents disapproved of US policies but still liked US music, movies, tv - "cultural soft power"

What are the key points in the debate in Foreign Affairs over Washington's China Strategy (March-April 2022)?

debate over Washington's China strategy: John Mearsheimers argument that US engagement strategy with china was a foreign policy disaster and that containment would have been a more effective approach Ikenberry: disagrees, engagement was a broader effort to strengthen the american led liberal international order after the Cold war--> suggests working with allies to strengthen liberal democracy and cooperate with china where possible Mearsheimer: engagement failed and led to current situation where china and the US are hegemonic rivals with antagonistic visions of world order, goal should have been to slow China's growth to prevent it from becoming a peer competitor (cooperation already has been attempted with unsatisfactory results) nathan: weaknesses in china's demographic structure, predicts china's economic growth is likely to slow, preventing it from reaching the per capita income levels , expresses overestimating the china threat is as dangerous as underestimating it urging realistic and measured approach to manage relationship Mearshiemer--> more dangerous than what nathan is saying, not saying that they will dominate, but still dangerous with china growing fighting for taiwan, thornton: looking at history contends that china and us can eventually seek accommodation rather than engaging in an apocalyptic war, (positive outcomes of policy during the cold war and post) mearshiemer: yes positive to lifting chinese out of poverty, but security concerns in US still remain, disagrees w thornton's optimism about avoiding war, sun zhe: contends china's strategic directionis not monlithic, with internal debates reflecting spectrum of views from pessimistic and hostile to optomistic cooperative Mearsheimer: concludes that while engagement benefited china, it created a peer competitor (hard to contain)

What are Susan Shirk's key policy suggestions? (Overreach)

dentity:Susan Shirk is overall giving suggestions to reassure the outside world to avoid further escalation of hostilities between China and the US. No one expects Xi Jinping to change his leadership (or hand power to a successor), Xi wants China to be respected as a global power, by virtue its of its large and talented population, geographic scale, centrality in asia, ( how to achieve China's/ Xi Jinping's ambition while not ostracizing China as a rogue state, ) Elaborate: China has great soft power assets ( huge market , traditional culture, contemporary accomplishments in poverty reduction, scientific discovery, space exploration) → top trading partner of 128/190 countries globally. → landlocked between neighboring countries who could provide good security if relations were friendly (mostly democracies) → will achieve global leadership if it provides international public goods and if its presence is welcomed by other countries → establish a modus vivendi w the US → "one country that can make or break China" Stable relationship w the US should be China's core interest Significance: What can China do: Get creative in the south china sea : china's actions in the south china sea created friction with its neighbors, bc its claims are selfish and zero sum → Xi Jinping could make compromises Close the Xinjiang reeducation camps: muslims are being confined while undergoing "thought reform" Stop economic coercion: Xi Jinping's style involves China's market power to threaten and punish countries, causes policial isolation of China Revive reform and opening: obsession w security has eclipsed China's prior commitments to improve its market economy , open sectors to foreign companies Operate the belt and road initiative by international standards: would be more welcomed by other countries were it mo

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee's strategy for Hong Kong (handouts)

lee's first policy address: emphasizes attracting talent and investment, building more homes, improving healthcare, reforming governance, and seizing development opportunities , plans to lead overseas delegations, initiatives to rebuild HK's image and invite leaders , revitalize HK amid challenges and enhance its global competitiveness Lee's 2022 Policy address: - emphasizes global challenges of the pandemic, economic uncertainties , lee highlighted HK's advantages under the one country two systems framework, including its strong business environment, international financial standing, thriving innovation and technology industries, and strategic location in asia , aims to ensure patriots administering HK through fair elections and the inclsion of individuals who love both the motherland and HK overall--> address seeks to navigate challenges , reinforce governance structures, and foster HK's development

The main takeaways from "Please Vote for Me"

luo lei wins! first time to elect a class monitor : an idea of democracy! kids prepared for the election, parents were very invested in their child's election, uses of bribes, quid pro quos and other dirty tricks were used, Luo Lei uses his father's conections to take his classmates on a field trip winning him sm favor - talent show, is part of campaigning process, showing the possible consequences of democracy in china: kids were mostly unaware of what democracy was before this election, nonetheless, we see classic features of democracy such as the incumbent advantage, shows the influence of the one child policy on kids and how they grow up, parents put all of their eggs in one basket, explaining why they are so invested in success

What's #MeToo in China all about? (from The China Questions 2, supplemented by the NY Times article on women's status in China, Blackboard

me too in china shares the same goal as movements in other countries: freedom to make their own decisions about their bodies and lives, and freedom to work, travel, live without being sexually assaulted, beaten or killed background: - during the early communist era, the gov useed the rhetoric of gender equality to mobilize women, by the 1970s th elabor force participation rate for women had reached more than 90% but with market reforms gender inequality came roaring back - march 2015: jailed five feminist activists - may 2017: CCP reported that western hostile forces were using feminisim and the notion of putting feminism aboe all else to attack china's views on women and the country's basic policies nov 2021: former vice premier had sexually assaulted her bringing the first me TOO accusation against a senior CCP official dec 2021: announced that it would revise a major law on women's rights and protections for the first time in decades to provide a comprehensive definition of sexual harassment characteristics: - feminist activists take up causes that do not directly confront the CCP but have resonance with millions of young urban women - even though the gov persecutes activists, shuts down women's rights centers, bans feminist social media accounts, censors ME too accounts of sexual harassment, and tightens control. feminist networks in china have grown in recent years

How has China tried to reconstruct the traditional Chinese world order? (Suisheng Zhao's chapter in the Soft Power book)

modern world order is rooted in the nation state system, emerged over 3 centuries ago in Europe, emphasizing state sovereignty and practices related to war, peace, commerce, and political competition --> prior to western influence, chinese worldview was characterized by a sinocentric hierarchy where china maintained a dominant position in east asia through a sophisticated tributary system ( in this system China was the center, other countries paid tribute acknowledging china's cultural and political superiority--> in return tributaries would gain economic benefits, political legitimacy) concept of Tianxia: universal system based on reciprocal relationships and harmony is presented as chinese normative principle of IR contrasting the westphalian system dominated by western powers SO NOW: China's reemergence as a great power has led to a rediscovery of the chinese world order, Xi Jinping have promoted the concept of a harmonious world, emphasizing china's commitment to peaceful development, for other countries to follow

The importance of Lee Teng-hui for an understanding of the evolution of politics in Taiwan (2 readings, lecture, video Tug of War)

party of one textbook 1) Lee teng Hui(president of taiwan from 1988-2000) considered father of taiwans democracy didn't explicitly advocate for taiwanese independence e: lee promoted taiwanese localization movement and worked to gain allies around the world - beijing began to loathe lee for his international travel and remarks implying taiwanese nationhood, called KMT exogenous regime , PLA fired missiles near Taiwan , --> proposed two state theory in 1999: emphasized taiwan and china as two separate jurisdictions; emphasized taiwan's national identity --> reunification of china should be long term goal after china is a democracy --> before lee, KMT claimed they were the official government of china and they would try to take power from the CCP, when lee succeeded he tried to make the relationship between taiwan and china into a state to state (strait) relationship s: first taiwanese president to become pres of taiwan showing its posisble for anyone to be pres, showed major transition important for taiwan politics, emphasizing taiwanese culture and identity, makred end of KMT's one party rule, Tug of War film: uses interviews, archival film, ohotos from popular taiwanese literature --> notes characdteristics of taiwans rebelliousness in the face of the expanding chinese empire --> shows how japenese colonialsim, suppresion o fpoltiical opposition, cold war shaped taiwanese self identification as taiwanese rather than just chinese

Dreyer's assessment of the success of the Chinese political system (China's Political System, Eleventh Edition)

past and present assessment of CCP pros: feeding and clothing a quarter of the world's population, high average life span, improved literacy rates, and infrastructure development cons: far more constrained in what they can say and to whom, past: - initially the party enjoyed solid support, promoting loyalty to both the party and the leaders like Mao Zedong, --> came Deng and his reforms led to improved living standards but also increased wealth disparities, decentralization and market reforms empowered local entities but weakened central institutions, in the two decades following the tiananmen incident, there have been no large anti government demonstrations in china ( analysts suggest China may be facing a unique transition challenge-> after Deng's market reforms, china has been left in a partial reform equilibirum) --> neo authoritarian order benefitting a small ruling elite, and the state's power is used to protect the elite's privileges rather than advancing broader developmental goals future: neo authoritarian paradigm overthrow of the present government evolution toward a more liberal regime paralysis as power devolves

The views of the two major political parties in Taiwan on the relationship with mainland China

politics in china : shelly rigger 2 major political parties in taiwan: DPP vs KMT DPP is prodemocraization and reputation for pro independence from china KMT believes that taiwan should be part of china aka prounification e: DPP: - known to promote democraization but reputation for pro independence - many taiwan voters view DPP as recklessly pro idndepdence - emphasizes taiwanese identity 2016: tsai ing wen of the DPP became first female president; huge change in taiwan politics , first time DPP own the election was in 200 w chen shui bian - dpp winning the election suggests growing sentiment of taiwan's liberation from china and growing sense of identity KMT: - claim to represent all of china, including both taiwan and mainland, - adheres to one chine principle, asserting theres only one china and the mainland and taiwan are a part of --> advocate for economic, political and cultural ties w mainland 2-28 incident few taiwanese dared to oppose kmt openly S: today, DPP's relation w china is shaky as presented by the issue of 1992 consenus, tsai ing wen and DPP does not recognize the acceptance of one china and xi had been tring to undermine tsai's admin in hope that a replacement which is more favorable to china would take over --> Xi place unoffical sanctions on taiwan by limiting the amount of tourists allowed to visit taiwan KMT:

Political parties and elections in Hong Kong (lecture and Politics in China, Third Edition)

politics in china : sonny lo - sino british joint declaration of 1984, based on one country two systems, chinese sovereignty over HK would be recognized -basic law: based on 1 country 2 system principle, blueprint for maintaining HK's legislative, economic social, judicial parties: - major pro beijing: democratic alliance for the betterment and progress of HK (DAB) and the business and professionals alliance for hong kong (bpa) --> one of the largest pro beijing parties in HK generally conservative - pro democracy: democratic party and civic party --> democratic party: one of the largest pro democracy parties in HK; traditionally supports universal suffrage, civil liberties and social justice --> new small parties that support HK indep from china: Younginspiration Election: - basic law of the HKSAR: established chief executive to be the head of the government - must be a chinese citizen, at least 40 years old, and have lived in HK for 20 years or more, elected for a five year term by an election committtee --> composition of the election committee is closely controlled by beijing, and the candidate elected has to be approved by the government of the PRC - patron client relations between the chinese leaders and the HKSAR chief executive: chief

Structural vs. Self-Imposed Limits on Chinese soft power (Soft Power and China Questions 2 book, and Rosen article on Chinese film) *Overlap with Q#40

rosen article on films: E: joseph nye has identified these factors most important for soft power project: 1) dominant culture and ideology close to prevailing norms 2) credibility enhanced by domestic and international performance 3) access to multiple channels of communication, which enables the framing of issues Structural limits on chinese soft power: - origins of the soft power concept/ methodologies to evaluate countries on a soft power scale, countries that are not liberal democracies will never be able to score high on any soft power ranking --> importance of english as "international language" self imposed limits on chinese soft power: - recognition overseas that any chinese cultural product must first have been vetted and approved by the CCP (products percieved as propoganda and less popular) - china very sensitive to how its image is portrayed abroad and will retaliate or threaten reetaliation - lack of transparency in promoting china's global image - unwilling to allow the individual to succeed( must claim collective success, which stifles individual expression)

Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, C.Y. Leung and Carrie Lam

source: Sonny Lo in Politics in China, HK Chapter I: 4 chief executives of HK since HK went back to China on 7,1 1997 Tung Chee -hwa: 1st chief executive of the HKSAR -> Tung was a very wealthy shipping industry tycoon with strong ties to the PRC when he tapped by Beijing to run HK -- attempted to pass article 23 in 2002 - March 2005, tung tendered his resignation to the central government in beijing, citing health reasons Donald Tsang: -beijing endorsed tsang to serve out the remainder ot tung's term - after his reelection --> intiatives became more contentious: expansion of the Primcipal Officials Accountability System , which handled appointment to all the key positions in the HKSAR government - POAS became a patronage mechanism CY leung: - rumored to be involved in HK gang activity, had support of CG, expressed support for anti subversion law - corruption in administration , viewed as incompetent Carrie Lam: - beijing favored and supported Lam as she had beeen observed carefully as a politicallly reliable and loyal cheif - focused on how to improve the livelihood of the HK ppl and maintain a politically obedient attitude toward beijing, significance: all face public dissatisfaction and protest during their tenure

The issue of universal suffrage and the pace of democratization in Hong Kong

source: sunny lo's chapter on HK - after british became aware of the China's aim to take back HK , began to implement political reform - last british governor's political reform package was narrowly approved, but beijing determined to block.. replaced the legco with a handpicked council to handle transitional handover matters - chief executive elected by an election committee which is appointed by beijing, --->after successful Article 23 protests, HK democrats began to press for the direct election by universal suffrage of the chief executive in 2007 and the entire legislature in 2008 -> standing committee of the national peoples congress the PRC body with authority over HK, ruled that such elections would violate the basic law - but SCNPC ruled that the chief executive would be chosen by universal suffrage in 2017, and after that LegCo members may be elected by universal suffrage CCP sees democratization in HK as a threat to security

How accurate were the predictions about post-1997 Hong Kong? (PPT slides 10/30) *CG = central gov't

source: time magazine did a special report on HK/ China after 10 years I: handover of HK sovereignty to china; key predictions and questions prior to 1977 had to do with the positon, autonomy, democracy and power of HK vs chinese government - within 2 years, HK currency would disappear and they would use chinese currency but that didn't happen e: - predictions were not very accurate; less autonomy and democracy than predicted initially, HK changed much less after 1997 than predicted -> HK's democracy movement and the general public were always unrealistic on how much autonomy or democracy the CG would allow -> at best the CG would have allowed universal suffrage IF they had final say on who would be allowed to run --> CG has seen the problems in HK as an economic issue based on class inequality, particularly in the area of affordable housing Key issues: 1) whether HK can remain a global city and financial center for Asia 2) whether housing and other economic issues can be successfully addressed so that the middle class will become more supportive what's changed: --> emigration: thousands of HK residents left before the handover out of fear of political crackdown and economic slowdown ; many lured back post 2005 what hasn't changed: - people's liberation army military presence still veri visible - HK's currency; beijing exerted little influence over their monetary authority - judicial system: Hk court system inherited from britain remains - civil rights: HK still much freer place to speak and publish than mainland s: predictions about autonomy and democracy are both correct and incorrect; while PLA's presence, HK's currency, judicial system and civil rights remain consistent for HK emigration changed: However the CG has tried to limit the HK's ppls liberties much more

The importance of polarization as a factor in Taiwan politics

source:poltics in china: I: polarization between DDP v KMT - DPP perceived as very pro democratization and pro independence - KMT seen as pro reunification E: the two parties are totally polarized on the issue of independence/ unification - identity politics: taiwanese identity support the DPP - chinese identity support KMT lee teng hui , KMT 1988-2000: pro democratization and two state theory chen shui bian DPP pres in 2000: calls for increase economic relations between taiwan/china but stonwalled ending era of KMT authoritarian rule - taiwan became a true democracy combo of hot economics and cold politics ( taiwanese ppl thought their island's economic prosperity depended on taking advantage of mainland opportunities) poloraization influences taiwan's approach to cross strait relations w mainland: - KMT hisotrically more open to engagement - DPP more cautious, prioritzing Taiwan's soverienty and democratic values 1992; KMT yes, dpp rejects and seeks separate identity s: whichever party comes into power in taiwan could cause a lot of domestic turmoil should they proceed or reject the unification w china

The main arguments in Sonny Lo's chapter on Hong Kong in Politics in China, Third Edition

summary: HK transitioned from a british crown colony to a Special administrative region of China in 1997, w a promise of a high degree of autonomy and the "one country, two systems" principle. (basic law established HK's autonomy but allowed the PRC final interpretive authority) --> featured freedom of speech and assembly, prevailing situation suggest a semi colonial political system, w increased authoritarianism challenging HK's semidemocratic nature --> argument and question of semicolony or semidemocracy? HK's political system is viewed as largely semicolonial w SCNPC having final jurisdiction over Basic Law interpretation and Beijing's central government influencing political reform ( however public oversight like ICAC remain strong) future political development of HK is unpredictable, influenced by cycles of political tightening and loosening in the PRC

Zweig's main arguments in his chapter on China's soft power toward Hong Kong

summary: chinese governments attempt to enhance its soft power in HK, primarily focused on economic integration and limiting political freedom, have failed to increase is popularity, prestige, stature within HK society --> deep rooted hong kong identity and the absence of a strong chinese identity among the populace have hindered Beijing's soft power efforts --> hard bc differing perspectives of the one country two systems policy w Beijing aiming for closer alignment with the one country end and hong kongers resisting to maintain liberal and democratic values --> despite Beijing's strategic priorities for HK, sacrificing soft power may prove to be a costly trade off as evidenced by the widespread disaffection and anti china sentiment ARGUMENT: engaging and expanding soft power among the younger demographic could be more beneficial for beijing than tightening control --> soft power : building soft power in HK --> promoting patriotism: sending HK students to the mainland --> limits on beijing's soft power in HK: the question of identity --> soft power and competing perceptions of national security --> national education policy: a strategy and an outcome: --> kidnapping the booksellers: a dramatic undermining of soft power --> extradition bill and the failure of CG's hK policy

According to Dickson in The Party and the People, what explains the survival and resilience of the Chinese Communist Party?

survival and resilience of CCP: - Durability of 1 party regimes : more stable and long lasting compared to military dictatorships/ personalist rule, unlike military regimes, leaders of one party systems are more likely to prefer the status quo with incentives to coexist with rivals rather than risk losing power - CCP's adaptability : CCP has shown flexibility by changing policies, moving from central to market reliance, integrating into the global community, modifying its approach to economic development (but consistent pattern is that Xi's ledaership suggests a departure from adaptability and working towards a return of strongman rule like Mao) - elite unity : despite political rivalry, conflicts are less explosive and publicized than in maoist times, with narrower policy differences maintaining a facade of harmony - performance legitimacy : despite some inequality, most people have experienced improved incomes and quality of life with hundreds out of poverty, rising middle class and imcomes contributed significantly to people accepting CCP rule