Psych 490: EXAM 4 (Chapter 11)
A friend heard somebody say, "If you are overweight, you are likely to smoke." This friend interprets this statement as, "If you smoke, then you are likely to be overweight." What kind of error is apparent in this example? A.Inappropriate interpretation of an if-then statement as biconditional B. Belief-bias effect C. Attempts at confirming an hypothesis D. Denying the antecedent
A
A normative approach to the analysis of reasoning and decision making _____, while a descriptive approach to the analysis of reasoning and decision making A. describes how we should think in a given situation; describes how we do think in these situations. B. describes how we do think in a given situation; describes how we should think in these situations. C. is irrational; is rational. D. is rational; is irrational.
A
According to Marchiori, Papies, and Klein (2013), in terms of anchoring, what can we do to reduce overeating? A. Use a smaller plate. B. Eat with friends. C. Eat with distractions. D.Use different utensils.
A
Affirming the antecedent is also called ______ and is a(n) ______ form. A.modus ponens; valid B.modus ponens; invalid C.modus tollens; valid D.modus tollens; invalid
A
Coincidences are extremely striking, and often lead people to believe in ________. The ease with which we think of coincidences makes them important players in the ______ heuristic. A.illusory correlations; availability B.illusory correlations; representativeness C.stereotypes; availability D.stereotypes; representativeness
A
In a valid syllogism, A. the conclusion follows from the premises. B. the premises are true. C. the conclusion is true. D. all of these answers are true.
A
In the video "Judgment and Decision Making," it was stated that psychologists (e.g., Kahneman and Tversky) have identified two approaches to judgment and decision making. Psychologists call the first approach "_____________________________________." This approach describes how we ought to act. Psychologists call the second approach, "______________________________________." This latter approach describes how we actually act. a. normative; descriptive b. normative; actuarial c. actuarial; conjunctive d. bounded; rational
A
Inductive reasoning A. involves reasoning from specific instances to a general rule. B. leads to a certain conclusion. C. involves using premises to justify a conclusion. D. is often associated with a bias to avoid confirming evidence.
A
The ________ view of inductive reasoning states that inductive reasoning involves updating the strengths of one's beliefs based on the recall of specific instances. A.experience-based B. rule-based C.categorization D. confirmatory
A
Which of these is an example of the sunk-cost effect? A. Sally is too sick to go out, but decides to attend the play since she paid $40 for the ticket. B. Jenny relents to the high-pressure sales person and spends $550 on accessories she doesn't need. C. Despite continued losses, Tony continues to play the ponies at the local track. D. Aaron has a decent seat for the basketball game, but decides to upgrade them by buying much better seats
A
_____ refers to the processes involved in arriving at some conclusion under conditions of uncertainty and risk. A. Decision making B. Problem solving C. Judgment D. Reasoning
A
Deductive reasoning problems have all of the following characteristics except A. going from general to specific. B. very little constraint. C. the application of algorithms for solution. D. premises and conclusions
B
If you want someone to be willing to take a risk, you can make it more likely by A. telling them what they stand to gain if they don't take the risk. B. telling them what they stand to lose if they don't take the risk. C.pitting the risk against a sure gain. D.doing nothing special; risk-taking is people's "default mode."
B
If your perceived risk of heart disease is lower than your actual risk, you have a(n) __________________________________ bias. a. pessimistic b. optimistic c. anchoring d. syllogistic
B
In your book's example, you read a list of names and then tried to recall how many started with J; if you tended to overestimate the number of J names, it was probably due to the effects of _______ on the use of the _______ heuristic. A.frequency; availability B.familiarity; availability C.stereotyping; representativeness D.salience; representativeness
B
Suppose you had somebody guess how a sequence of 10 coin flips would play itself out (e.g., THTHHHTHHT). If people did this task, they would tend to ____ the number of alternations, due to their reliance on the ______ heuristic. A. overestimate; availability B. overestimate; representativeness C. underestimate; availability D. underestimate; representativeness
B
Suppose you hear about a friend who graduated from college in dramatic arts. Suppose you also judge her to be more likely to be both selling insurance and active in community theater than she is to be only selling insurance. You have A. fallen victim to the anchoring and adjustment heuristic. B. fallen prey to a conjunction fallacy. C.ignored regression to the mean. D.committed a belief bias error.
B
The belief that after a run of bad luck a change is due to occur is called A.superstition effect. B. gambler's fallacy. C.hot hand. D.an "in" with the gods.
B
The more recently something has happened, the _____ likely it is to affect our judgment, due to A. less; an atmosphere effect. B.more; the availability heuristic. C.more; anchoring effects. D.less; the representativeness heuristic.
B
Which of these everyday sayings defines the hindsight effect? A."Experience is the best teacher." B."I could have told you that was going to happen." C. "Those who fail to learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them." D. "Absence makes the heart grow fonder."
B
According to the expected utility theory, our choices should _____ show invariance. Invariance refers to A. never; failing to change our choices even when circumstances dictate we should. B. never; failing to change a course of action once it's been chosen. C. always; preferring one alternative over another, no matter how the alternatives are presented. D. always; sticking with a course of action once it's been chosen.
C
Choice architecture is designed primarily to A. set decisions up so that quick (System 1) processes arrive at acceptable decisions. B. preempt System 1, so that people rely only on System 2. C. improve System 2 reasoning. D. set decisions up so people don't need either System 1 or System 2.
C
If it rains tomorrow, then I'm not going to the baseball game. I did not go to the baseball game. So, it must have rained. This type of argument is called _______, and the conclusion, "It must have rained," is A.denying the antecedent; invalid. B.denying the consequent; valid. C.affirming the consequent; invalid. D.affirming the antecedent; valid.
C
In lecture, a study of perceived risk for various events was presented. Results showed greater optimistic bias for evens that were perceived to be more _____________________________________. a. random b. gender-specific c. controllable d. positive
C
Our tendency to avoid situations in which many people may be killed while simultaneously being relatively impervious to risky situations in which deaths are more spread out is called A.anchoring. B.fatality fear. C.dread risk. D.fatal risk assessment.
C
People tend to ignore the base rate of some occurrence in the population in making their judgments. For example, they assume anyone over 6 feet, 6 inches tall must have played a lot of basketball, even though the majority of individuals have not played much basketball. This is a prime example of A. regression to the mean. B. the availability heuristic. C.the representativeness heuristic. D.anchoring and adjustment.
C
When we make judgments, we often have to do so in the absence of information or computational skill. Because of this, we must often rely on A.problem space. B.algorithms. C.heuristics. D.premises.
C
According to the dual-process view of reasoning, judgment and decision making, which mode of thinking operates relatively slowly, deliberately, and in a controlled manner? A. Heuristic mode B. Rational mode C. Bounded mode D. Analytic mode
D
Compare a $50 gain and a $50 loss. Which of these is more psychologically powerful, according to prospect theory? A. They have equal value. B. A $50 gain is more psychologically powerful. C. It depends on the particular situation. D.A $50 loss is more psychologically powerful.
D
Conditional reasoning A. is a synonym for syllogistic reasoning. B. is a form of inductive reasoning. C. involves evaluating the validity of premises. D.features an if-then form.
D
Credit card companies' practice of providing you with a minimum payment on your monthly bill likely influences payments to the companies' advantage. This influence occurs, at least in part, due to A. the availability heuristic. B. illusory correlation. C. representativeness heuristic. D. anchoring and adjustment.
D
Hastie, Schkade, and Payne (1999) looked at the hindsight bias in the context of mock civil litigation. In a foresight condition, participants were told that a dangerous situation was developing along a railroad line, and given an extensive set of facts, were then asked to estimate the foreseeability of an accident. In the hindsight condition, participants were given the same set of facts, but were told the accident had already occurred. They were also asked to predict the foreseeability of the accident. Participants in the hindsight condition were more likely than those in the foresight condition to judge the defendant as A.liable. B.reckless. C.disregarding grave risk. D.all of these
D
Myside bias is a more specific form of what general bias? A.The atmosphere effect B.Modus ponens C.Fallacy of affirming the consequent D.Confirmation bias
D
Vivid news reports that highlight the danger of serial killers, terrorist threats, and toxic substances in food may heighten public concern beyond a level that's reasonable due to A.hindsight bias. B.the representativeness heuristic. C.an atmosphere effect. D.the availability heuristic.
D
_______ involves evaluation of a conclusion based solely on given information. A. Decision making B. Problem solving C.Judgment D.Reasoning
D
Heuristics and biases
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky Heuristics: Mental shortcuts Ex. Avalability, fast Biases: Things that influence or sway our thinking Ex. hidsight bias, optomistic bias
Biases: Framing effects: Gain vs. Loss
Frame: "plan will save" and "saving" 1. "gain frame" or "loss"? 2. which is a risk? (A or B) *most chose A* - aviod risks with a gain frame Frame: "loss of two" and "loss of" 1. "gain frame" or "loss"? 2. Which is a risk? (C or D) *most (%80) chose "D"- because we prefer risks with loss frame
Bias: Familiarity
If we are familiar with (know of more) examples, we may judge something to be more frequent ex. chores, diseases
Availability Heuristic
Operates when judgement of frequency or probabilty is affected by how fast or how easily examples come to mind
Psychological accounting
Richard Thaler -attempts to describe the process whereby people code, categorize and evaluate economic outcomes.
Wason's 4-card selection task
The Wason selection task (or four-card problem) is a logic puzzle devised by Peter Cathcart Wason in 1966. It is one of the most famous tasks in the study of deductive reasoning
Overconfidence
When our confidence is higher than it should be Ex. students, physicians, engineers
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic
When you estimate a value, not b starting from scratch, but adjusting an earlier estimate
people often fail to choose correctly on the Wason Selection Task because they resist A. affirming the antecedent. B. confirmatory evidence. C. disconfirmatory evidence. D. affirming the consequent.
c
Dual process model of judgment, reasoning, and decision making (e.g., from lecture)
evolutionarily old processing
Syllogistic reasoning
logical argument that applies deductive reasoning to arrive at a conclusion based on two or more propositions that are asserted or assumed to be true.
Conditional reasoning (and the two valid forms)
logical reasoning based on conditional statements or conditional propositions having the form If p, then q, in which p is the antecedent and q is the consequent.
Groupthink
the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group
Bias: Recency
trick us into making decisions we might not make otherwise. Because it's easier, we're inclined to use our recent experience as the baseline for what will happen in the future.
