SCM Chapter 4

In time series, which of the following cannot be predicted? A) large increases in demand B) cycles C) seasonal fluctuations D) random variations E) large decreases in demand

D) random variations

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand? A) associative models B) exponential smoothing C) weighted moving average D) moving average E) trend projection

A) associative models

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true? A) It is always based on the assumption that future demand will be the same as past demand. B) It makes extensive use of the data collected in the qualitative approach. C) It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand. D) Because it accounts for trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, it is always more powerful than associative forecasting. E) All of the above are true.

C) It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand.

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes? A) job scheduling B) production levels C) cash budgeting D) capital expenditures E) purchasing

D) capital expeditures

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

False

Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families.

False

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

True

The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

True

The two general approaches to forecasting are: A) qualitative and quantitative. B) mathematical and statistical. C) judgmental and qualitative. D) historical and associative. E) judgmental and associative.

A) qualitative and quantitative.

Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process? A) Determine the use of the forecast. B) Eliminate any assumptions. C) Determine the time horizon of the forecast. D) Select the forecasting model. E) Validate and implement the results.

B) Eliminate any assumptions.

Short-range forecasts tends to ________ longer-range forecasts. A) be less accurate than B) be more accurate than C) have about the same level of accuracy as D) employ the same methodologies as E) deal with more comprehensive issues than

B) be more accurate than

The three major types of forecasts used by organizations in planning future operations are: A) strategic, tactical, and operational. B) economic, technological, and demand. C) exponential smoothing, Delphi, and regression. D) causal, time-series, and seasonal. E) departmental, organizational, and territorial.

B) economic, technological, and demand.

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents? A) jury of executive opinion B) sales force composite C) Delphi method D) associative models E) time series

C) Delphi method

The forecasting technique that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as: A) the expert judgment model. B) multiple regression. C) jury of executive opinion. D) market survey. E) management coefficients.

C) jury of executive opinion

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the sales in August.

True

A time-series model uses a series of past data points to make the forecast.

True

Cycles and random variations are both components of time series.

True

Demand forecasts serve as inputs to financial, marketing, and personnel planning.

True

Forecasts may be influenced by a product's position in its life cycle.

True

One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved.

True