Soc 170 Exam 1
Neo-Malthuism
"second coming of Malthus' people". Advocated for contraception
Parity
# of pregnancies a woman had that have each resulted in a kid that is able to survive
What is the balancing equation of population change?
#people = #births - #deaths + #inMigration - #outMigration
Unmet Need
% of women who do not want to get pregnant who are not using contraception
How are demographic rates typically calculated?
(# of occurrences) / (# of person-years)
Natural Decrease
Greater # of deaths than births
What will the future population pyramid look like if we converge on around two births per woman?
It will get to look more and more like a rectangle
Massimo Livi-Bacci, a respected demographer, argues that Malthus was correct in the sense that...
space on the planet is finite
[Re]emergent infectious disease considerations
1) new infectious diseases (ex. covid). 2) Shifting zones of disease transmission (ex. Zika, Ebola). 3) Vaccination coverage/loss of herd immunity. 4)Antibiotic resistance/pathogen evolution
4 environmental threats caused by population growth
1)Deforestation: Blame the need for land for livestock, timber production, and infrastructure development. 2) Fragile coastal regions. 3) Urbanization. 4)Global warming
4 Considerations about population aging:
1)Pace:How quickly the elderly pop is increasing. 2) Socioeconomic Inequality: social security largely decreased elderly poverty. 3) Geography: some places have high old person % because old people come in and some areas have young people leave. 4) Generational equity: thinking about how much policies favor old/young
Six Cultural challenges of population growth/control
1)Saying we should have less people is like "people shaming", 2)Population issues connect to racial/ethnic/religious pride, 3)techniques of population control are sometimes against some religious values, 4)Talking about contraception and sex can be awkward, 5)Reproduction is central to many gender identies and roles, 6)Family is important and helps us realize who we are as kids and parents
Two problems that could result if the US fertility rate continues to drop
1)could lead to a shrinking population. 2) could lead to older population, meaning less working population to support the elderly physically and through social security
Helms Amendment
1973- gov money given to other countries cannot be used for abortions or to motivate someone to have one
Bucharest Conference
1974 conference where UN said all people have the right to decide family size and spacing
What is replacement level fertility?
2.1 births per woman
What is a centenarian?
A person 100 years older or more
Which of the following is not a reason for low fertility mentioned by Gietel-Basten? [a] Devaluation of children. [b] Difficulty combining work and family roles. [c] Unaffordable housing. [d] Difficulty finding decent, secure employment
A, Devaluation of children was NOT a reason for low fertility mentioned by him
Which of the following is NOT an example of a health reversal identified by Horiuchi? [a] Unmet need for family planning. [b] Re-emergence of infectious diseases. [c] Unhealthy lifestyles in wealthy societies. [d] Social alienation
A, Horiuchi identified 5 examples of health reversals: the early industrial revolution, unhealthy lifestyles in wealthy societies, emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases, pollution, and social alienation
Which of the following statements best describes the relative income hypothesis? [a] At any given level of income, an individual's health will depend on their rank within the income distribution. [b] An individual's health is determined by the net income of their relatives. [c] An individual's health depends on their own (and only their own) level of income
A, it suggests that an individual's health is determined by their income relative to the income of others in society. The ABSOLUTE income hypothesis suggests an individual's health is influenced by their own income level, regardless of societal income distribution
Examples of preventive checks Malthus thought would work
Abstinence, delayed marriage, restrict marriage of poor
How can scarcity be mutable?
According to David Harvey, we can change the ends we have in mind and the social organization that causes scarcity. We can change our tech and cultural appraisals of nature. We can change our views concerning the things we are accustomed to. We can seek to alter our numbers
Population pyramid
Age distributions in a given year, can reflect moments of mass death or birth
Cohort
Aggregate of all people that experience the same events in the same time frame (Commonly birth cohorts)
What are two main uses of census data?
Allocation of resources back to geographic areas, representation to decision-making bodies
Positive Check
Any event that shortens human lifespan, keeps pop in check
Healthy Life expectancy
Average number of years a person lives in good health
Life expectancy
Avg number of years a person is expected to live. Typically given by stats from a certain year or stats from a certain birth cohort
Which of the following is a ratio? [a] The frequency of demographic events in a population during a specified time period (usually a year) divided by the population "at risk" of the event occurring during that time period. [b] The relation of one population subgroup to the total population or to another subgroup. [c]The absolute number of a population or any demographic event occurring in a specified area in a specified time period
B
Which of the following statements about life expectancy is false? [a] The majority of projections of maximum life expectancy have been surpassed within five years of publication. [b] The biologically maximum life expectancy has been reached. [c] For the past 160 years, the highest recorded life expectancy has steadily increased by a quarter of a year per year
B, the biological age maximum keeps getting set and subsequently broken, as humans have shown no signs of slowing down live exp. growth.
Direct Estimate of Mortality (w/ resp. to covid)
Based solely on covid complications
Social Gradient of Health:
Basically Health is related to social status and what not. The lower an individual's socioeconomic position the worse their health
Ratio
Basically comparing two values, could be one subgroup to another or to the entire population
Which of the following causes did NOT contribute to the rising mid-life mortality documented by Case and Deaton? [a] Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. [b] Drug overdoses. [c] Diabetes. [d] Suicide
C, diabetes stayed relatively stable over the time period 1999 to 2013 and did not contribute to the rise
What used to happen with same sex responses on the census?
Census data was modified and it was assumed to be an entry error
Period Effects
Certain things that happen to cohorts that affects population and/or changes behavior
What was the primary concern about adding a citizenship question to the 2020 U.S. Census?
Concerns about immigrant families, with and without documentation, avoiding the census or responding inaccurately
Preventative Check
Control population by reducing fertility rates, ex: contraception
Census
Data collection survey aiming to get info about the people that live in specific areas
Indirect estimate of mortality (WRT covid)
Deaths caused by socioeconomic disruptions due to COVID being here
Mid-life mortality
Deaths in the 40-50ish range
Alcohol-Attributable Mortality
Deaths that are wholly or partially attributed to alcohol
What was the key finding of the Pritchett study?
Desired Family size explained 90% of the variation in actual fertility. It had more of an effect on fertility than contraceptive access, views on contraception, and other factors.
Demographic Critique
Development and modernization cause rapid growth, but it soon after stabilizes
Crude Rate of natural increase
Difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate
What is a health inequity?
Differences in health that are deemed unfair or stem from some sort of injustice.
Diversity Gap
Differences in length and healthiness of life based on income, education, enviro, etc
Malthus' positive checks
Disease, starvation, war
(Re)emerging infectious diseases
Diseases that are growing and/or reemerge after declining for a while
Age Composition
Distribution of ages
What issue is the largest environmental challenge identified by Hans Rosling in "The magic washing machine"?
Economic Growth: the majority of the pop growth will occur in the poorest populations, where energy consumption is low. In contrast, economic growth will increase energy consumption in middle income countries. The economic growth will lift those who have electricity above the "wash line" and those already above the wash line would move up another tier. If tech change doesn't make energy consumption in high income countries more efficient, then economic growth will have a greater effect on global energy consumption than population growth.
What is the most likely explanation for why the US fertility rate declined over the past decade?
Economic conditions
Thomas Malthus
English scholar who said population would grow until it reaches environmental limits
Excess mortality
Excess deaths caused by something, amount more than average
True or False: In the article by Braveman and colleagues, they argue that examining race and class jointly adds little to our understanding of health disparities.
F, They argue that it is important to examine socioeconomic and racial disparities separately and jointly.
Why have places like FL and AZ have high % of old people, as well as areas like the mountains or midwest
FL and AZ have lots of retirement spots, and young people have moved out of areas such as the Appalachians and the north woods, leaving big proportions of old people there
True or False: Demographers are primarily concerned with the consequences of individual-level behavior for individuals.
False, they are interested in populations
True or False: In the 1990s and 2000s, the fertility rate in the United States was comparable to the fertility rate of most European countries.
False. From 1990 to 2010, the fertility rate of the US was consistently higher than that of the european countries
True or False: Low levels of unmet need indicate the success of family planning programs.
False. It all depends on how many kids are desired, how accessible contraception is, and other factors, but for example, in a society where women want lots of kids, they don't use contraception often, but the unmet need can still be low.
True or False: Thomas Malthus believed that poverty was the greatest threat to the environment.
False: Malthus believed that exponential growth in pop size was the greatest environmental and social threat. Without preventative checks, population could exceed agricultural production, leading to social and environmental catastrophe and an eventual population crash.
True or False: According to the inequality critique of Malthus, population growth and environmental decline cause hunger and poverty.
False: the inequality critique of malthus asserts the opposite. Hunger and poverty cause population growth and environmental decline.
Low Fertility
Few babies per woman
Stages of the magic washing machine theory
Fire pit(bare minimum) → Light bulb(just enough) → Washing machine(well off) → planes(wealthy). People will rise up the ranks and be "above the washing machine line" but it will come at the cost of using more energy.
What did Malthus predict about food production, pop growth vs poverty, and preventative measures?
Food production will not keep up with pop growth, pop growth will produce poverty, only preventative measure is good moral constraint
What is the Demographic Critique of Malthus?
Frank Notestein suggested development and modernization initially raise population growth rates but eventually lead to a return to stability.
Livi-Bacchi expanded on Ehrlich's IPAT model with what model
GW = PATB (Global warming is a product of population, affluence, tech, BEHAVIOR)
Social Security
Gov program providing benefits to retired, unemployed, disabled people
In a population period with a very wide base, population is ______
Growing rapidly
Family Planning Programs
Helps people have or prevent children
Mortality in white people increased primarily due to those with what level of education?
High school degree or less
Cohort life expectancy will likely be _____ because deaths at young ages pull the period life expectancy way down
Higher
Human Impact Model
I=PAT... Impact on environment is influenced by pop size, affluence (per capita consumption/wealth), and technology/innovation
What is the compression of morbidity hypothesis?
Increased life expectancy will be accompanied by a shortening of length of time spent in poor health. Individuals gain more years of healthy life
Why has midlife mortality increased for non-hispanic whites?
Increased pain prevalence and functional limitations, increased availability of opioids, growing economic uncertainty/increased income inequality
"Problem" with Ester Boserup's Tech critique
Investments needed to amp up production may not be available everywhere
Inequality Critique
It is NOT population growth that causes environmental decline, poverty and hunger. It is poverty and hunger that cause enviro decline and pop growth
What was significant about the fertility rate in the United States in 2017?
It was the lowest in 30 years. The only age group that saw a rise in fertility was women 40 or older.
What is the idea of failure of success?
Life expectancy increases, but high rates of morbidity occur at lower ages (low healthy lifespan)
Population Aging
Life expectancy increases, fertility declines→ average age of population increases
Population momentum
Low fertility rates may still result in increased births, caused by a large population of childbearing age women
Where is natural decrease most common in the US?
Maine, Appalachians, Great Plains, Midwest
Longevity Effect
Measure of how biological aging has changed in relation to chronological age
Population Policies
Measures taken to try to raise or cut the population
What are errors of coverage, in terms of census?
Missing people or households, can be hard to keep full track of mobility of people, or groups home homeless, those who live in rural areas, or those who try to avoid the census
"Problem" With Julian Simon's Tech critique
More people isn't always a good thing, if so the Roman empire would still exist
Technological critique
New tech means more ability to prevent resource scarcity. (More people=more innovation)
For which population group did mortality rates increase among 45-54 year olds over the period 1999-2013 in the United States?
Non-hispanic Whites
What is the elderly support ratio?
Number of people in a population ages 18-64 relative to the number of people 65+. In 2000, it was 5:1, by 2060, there is projected to be less than 3:1 worker:elderly ratio.
Undercount
One sub-population, such as specific age groups or races, are less likely to be counted by the census than other groups sometimes
Centenarian
People that are 100 or more
What are the 3 main causes of midlife mortality
Poisonings, suicides, liver diseases
What is morbidity?
Poor health, including physical dysregulation, disease onset, loss of function, and frailty.
"Diverging Destinies"
Prevalence of people married is higher with those who have a college degree
Elderly support ratio
Proportion of population 65+ relative to those 15-64
3 Prerequisites for fertility to decline
Ready, Willing, and Able: Fertility must be realized as a choice, reduced fertility must be advantageous, effective techniques (family planning) must be available. If all 3 are met, fertility can decline
Compression of mortality
Reduction in the range of ages people typically die
What is the diversity gap?
Refers to the generational gap between age groups in their racial and ethnic composition.
What is the inequality critique of malthus?
Said poverty and hunger caused environmental decline and pop growth. Many say there is enough food in the world, it's just not accessible enough
Postponement transition
Shift in family formation to later ages
Why did Caroline Sten Hartnett describe US fertility rates as "unusually high"?
Since 1990, US fertility rates have been higher than the rates in most comparable countries in Europe.
Crute Birth/Death Rate
Special period Rate: (#births/deaths in time frame)/(# of person-years lived in time frame)
Three stages of demographic transition
Stage 1: Stable birth rate and varying death rate roughly cancel. Stage 2: Birth rate stays high, but improved quality of life lowers the death rate. Stage 3: Stable death rate and varying birth rate
"Deaths of Despair"
Suicide, deaths of drug/alcohol poisoning, alcoholic liver disease
As morbidity and pain increased, so did__________
Suicides and overdoses
Bongaarts model
Summarizes the relationship between total fertility rate and marriage, contraception, abortion, infertility
What equation was formed for total fertility rate based on contraceptive use?
TFR = 7.29 - 0.07CPR, where CPR is the contraceptive prevalence rate in percent
Lowest-Low Fertility
TFR below 1.3, The implications of aging population and declining labor force become hard to manage
Biological age
Takes into account chronological age, genetics, lifestyle, nutrition, diseases, and other biomarkers
Drug Overdoses
Taking too much of a drug
Demographic Transition
The 3 or 5 stages of a population, starting with constant birth and variable death, then as quality of life and life expectancy increases, the birth rate goes down then varies and the death rate becomes stable
What is population momentum?
The demographic phenomenon where the past demographic outcomes continue to influence demographic outcomes. Number of births may continue to increase even if fertility levels are lower.
How is excess mortality calculated?
The historic average number of deaths in a calendar period is compared to the observed number of deaths in a specific year
What policy was rescinded and reinstated many times by the different presidents?
The mexico city polity
Rate
The number of times something happens out of the total; relates occurrences to pop size and time frame
Contraceptive Prevalence
The percentage of women aged 15-49 years, married or in-union, who are currently using, or whose sexual partner is using, at least one method of contraception
What is the unmet need for family planning?
The proportion of women who want to delay or stop childbearing but are not currently using contraception. Excludes women who are unable to have children and those who want to have kids.
Compression of morbidity
Time spent in poor health will compress into the latter part of life, resulting in more years of healthy life
True or False: The fertility rate of the United States in 2017 was below the replacement rate.
True. The replacement rate is 2.1 births per woman and the TFR in 2017 was 1.76
What is the technologic Critique of Malthus?
Two main points: 1) (Copernican World) A larger population means more people and more labor to work out technological solutions to resource scarcity (Lead by Julian Simon), and 2) population pressure encourages agricultural productivity and the intensification of food production (Lead by Ester Boserup)
"Two-Child Norm"
Typically, there is still a majority that wants a 2 child family
Mexico city policy
US Policy that blocked gov funding for pro abortion organizations
Health Reversals
Unexpected change in morbidity/mortality patterns among a group
What was Malthus' main point?
Unless checked in some way, population will grow until it runs up against environmental limits causing poverty, scarcity, hunger
In countries such as Nigeria where large families are the norm, what two rates are low?
Unmet need and contraceptive use
US Fertility Differentials
Variation in Fertility of different groups or classes in the population
What is an undercount?
When one sub-population, such as specific age groups or races, are less likely to be counted by the census than other groups
What measure do demographers use as an indicator of the number of persons younger than 15 or older than 65 relative to the number of persons aged 15-64?
[Old] Age-dependency Ratio
A population with slow population growth will have a population pyramid with...
a smaller proportion of the population in younger ages(Narrower bottom)
Count
absolute number of a population in an event or a time period
Relative income hypothesis
an individual's health depends not only on their own level of income, but the incomes of others in society
Absolute income hypothesis
an individual's health depends on their own level of income
Growth Balance Equation
balances in/out migrations and births/deaths
Population
collection of a certain group people, can be specific or general
Net migration
difference between in and out migrations
Health Inequalities
differences, variations, and and disparities in health achievements of individuals and groups
Period effects
environmental influences that influence aging cohorts
According to the United Nations (UN)'s projections, the size of the world population living in low elevation coastal zones is expected to....
increase
Health Inequity
inequalities in health that are deemed to be unfair or stemming from injustice
Second Demographic Transition
lead to durably low birth rates and much more variance in parent's marital status
Fundamental Causes of Health
most epidemiological research focuses on individually- based, prominent risk factors such as diet, cholesterol level, exercise, rather than outside factors
Social statistics infrastructure
non-physical infrastructure, ex: weather forecast services, economic forecasts
In a population period with a narrow base, population is ______
not changing or decreasing growth
Preston Curve
relationship between life expectancy and per capita income, higher life exp. typically means higher GDP
Aging in Place
remaining living in the community unassisted rather than in residential care
Human lifespan
the individual number of years a person lives