Soc Mid Term

How long have humans been around

200,000 years

Why Are More Recent Increases So Rapid?

Acceleration in population after 1750 was due to declines in the death rate during the Industrial Revolution. People were eating better, bathing more often and drinking cleaner water. Continuing population increases are due to dramatic declines in mortality without a commensurate decline in fertility (even though fertility IS declining).

demographic connections: Backlash against immigrants

Aggravated by xenophobia in the face of the need for workers in the richer, aging countries

City-states growing too fast 340 BC

Aristotle - Number of children should be limited by law

~340 bc

Aristotle—Population should be limited; abortion might be appropriate.

Food production

Arithmetic sequences: the difference between consecutive terms is constant, grows at a constant rate, e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4.. Food production grows in this manner per Malthus Partly because of limited land resources

Malthusian Perspective

As much as Malthus wanted to believe in the perfectibility of humans, he argued people have a natural urge to reproduce, the "passion between the sexes," and the increase in the food supply cannot keep up with population growth. The major consequence of population growth, according to Malthus, is poverty. Within that poverty is the stimulus for action that can lift people out of misery.

Critiques of his theory

Assertion that food production could not keep up with population growth. Conclusion that poverty was an inevitable result of population growth. What do you think? Belief that moral restraint was the only acceptable preventive check. Enough said...

Émile Durkheim

Based an entire social theory on the consequences of population growth. Population growth leads to greater societal specialization, because the struggle for existence is more acute when there are more people.

John Stuart Mill

Basic thesis was the standard of living is a major determinant of fertility levels. The ideal state is that in which all members of a society are economically comfortable, rather than seeking excessive wealth. At this point the population will stabilize and people will progress culturally, morally, and socially.

demographic connections: Degradation of the environment

Can we feed everyone? Can we pull everyone out of poverty?

Expanding empire. Need to replace war casualties 50 BC

Cicero

~50 bc

Cicero—Population growth is necessary to maintain the Roman Empire.

Condorcet

Condorcet believed that technological progress has no limits at the interest of their own welfare (and that of their families and societies) people will limit their fertility if needed

Tech progress is limitless (and will out-power population problems) 18th Century

Condorcet (Enlightenment) People will rationally limit population growth if the need arises

~500 bc

Confucius—Governments should maintain balance between population and resources.

Diffusion

Contiguous societies (in Europe) followed similar paths of transition even though they differed in the level of urbanization and development The Princeton Project showed that in fact distinct society with a shared cultural trait (e.g., a lingustic one) were more likely to follow a similar transition in spite of whether they had different economic levels

By 500 B.C.,

, as major civilizations were established in China and Greece, the world was adding about 100,000 people each year.

In the 3rd through 5th centuries A.D

, increases in mortality led to declining populations in the Mediterranean area as the Roman Empire collapsed, and in China as the Han empire collapsed.

Between 8000 B.C. and 5000 B.C

. about 333 people were being added to the world's population each year.

Chapter 2: part b

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Doctrine vs. social theory

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Malthusian Perspective: Mathematical approach to population

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Modern Theories

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Population control: according to malthus

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Prelude to Demographic Transition Theory

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Premodern Doctrines

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Reformulating the DT: The Princeton European Fertility Project Highlighted the Role of Modernization, Ideational Changes, and Diffusion

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chapter 2: the demographic perspective

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Neo-Malthusian: E.g Paul Erlich

E.g Paul Erlich - Population Bomb (1968) thesis Heavily debunked by fertility declines observed everywhere in world in the last few decades Note: Erlich is a biologist

Ideational Changes

E.g. Secularization: "an attitude of autonomy from otherworldly powers and a sense of responsibility for one's own well-being" (Weeks p 94) Emergence of new reproductive and family norms Mass education

demographic connections: Social strife and regional conflict

E.g., Aggravated by the youth bulge in the Middle East and South Asia E.g., Violence in sub-Saharan Africa that's aggravated by high birth rates and issues arising from HIV/AIDS

Marxian Persepctive

Each society at each point in history has its own law of population that determines population growth. For capitalism, the consequences are overpopulation and poverty. For socialism, population growth is readily absorbed by the economy with no side effects. Ergo: Population problems would be non-existent in socialism

1962

Earliest studies suggesting the need to reformulate demographic transition theory.

Theory of Demographic Transition

Emphasizes the importance of economic and social development. Leads first to a decline in mortality and then to a commensurate decline in fertility. Based on the experience of the developed nations and derived from the modernization theory.

Modernization Theory is at Times Flawed

Ethnocentric Attempted to universalize regional/culture-specific historical experience of early western Europe. The tradition/modernity dichotomy is false (both analytically and historically or chronologically) Path dependence History matters. The mere occurrence of an event (or a sequence of events) may limit its re- occurrence (by the virtue of the mere fact of the knowledge of it having happened before) History rarely repeats itself exacty

migration 1 in (14th to 20th centuries)

European expansion- Europe to North and South America Africa to Latin America, Caribbean and North America

What was their existence characterized by?

For almost all of that time, humans were hunter-gatherers living a primitive existence marked by high fertility and high mortality, and very slow population growth.

~1,300 bc

Genesis—"Be fruitful and multiply."

population growth

Geometric sequence: the ratio between consecutive terms is constant, the growth is multiplicative, like 1,2,4,8... Population grows in this manner, e.g., if one woman produces two children each of whom produces 2 children each as well, then the second generation has 4 more people ...

More populous cities are more prosperous 14 C AD

Ibn Kaldun - Population growth is good for economic growth

~1380 a.d.

Ibn Khaldun—Population growth increases occupational specialization and raises incomes.

Arsène Dumont

Late 19th century French demographer who felt he discovered a new principle of population called "social capillarity". The desire of people to rise on the social scale, to increase their individuality as well as their personal wealth. To ascend the social hierarchy requires to sacrifices be made, one of them being avoiding child bearing

Demographics and Social planning

Local agencies use demographics to plan for services (education, fire, police, sanitation, economic development) for their communities.

Preventive checks.

Lower birthrates: postponement of marriage, celibacy

Critiques of Marx

Major critique: no guidance for how to get to a socialist model. Demographic trends in Soviet Russia didn't not "absorb" population problems as suggested by Marx In fact, Soviet Russia, jut like in capitalist industrialized countries, the working class experienced disproportionately high death rates relative to the rest of the population China, another society inspired by Marx-Leninist ideas, rejected the notion that the socialist system would take care of population problems

Malthus 1798

Malthus—Population grows exponentially while food supply grows arithmetically; poverty is the result of the absence of moral restraint.

Agricultural revolution details

Many argue the Agricultural Revolution occurred because the growth of hunting-gathering populations pushed the limit of their carrying capacity. Eventually people began to use the environment intensively, leading to the agricultural way of life which has characterized society for the past 10,000 years.

Poverty is not a product of population growth but a result of poor social organization (and capitalism) 1844

Marx - Transform the social structure Revolution

Marx 1844

Marxian—Each society has its own law of population that determines consequences of population growth; poverty is not the natural result of population growth.

~1500-1800

Mercantilism—Increasing national wealth depends on a growing population that can stimulate trade.

migration patterns

Migration I: flows from rapidly growing areas into less rapidly growing ones.

Only acceptable preventative check according to Malthus

Moral restraint was the only acceptable preventive check according to Malthus Delay marriage, and be chaste in the meanwhile

Context Matters: Putting Population Doctrines and Theories at "their place"

Most theorists were explaining specific conditions (social, econ, political, and environmental ) of their time -albeit that fact was unbeknownst to some Some were just justifying their social position (class interest)- again albeit unbeknownst to some

Why is Demography Important?

Nearly everything is connected to demography:

Neo-malthusians 1800

Neo-Malthusian—Birth control measures are appropriate checks to population growth.

What is the demographic Transition

Original model divided roughly into three stages.

~1700-1800

Physiocrats—Population size depends upon the wealth of the land, which is stimulated by free trade (so-called laissez-faire).

~360 bc

Plato—Population quality is more important than quantity.

A potential for land scarcity. A belief that land is the major generator of wealth (not labor or industry) 1700 - 1800

Population depends on land resources. Foster free trade/laissez faire to increase returns to land productivity. Francois Quesnay (the Physiocrats)

14th century

Population growth recovered until the plague arrived in Europe in the middle of the 14th century. decimated european population

Demographer's are concerned with

Population size Population growth or decline Population processes Population distribution Population structure Population characteristics

positive checks

Raise death rates: hunger, disease and war;

Rational Choice

Rational Choice Theory (RCT): human behavior and action is a result of calculated cost-benefit analysis of different choices (course of action) available The choice that minimize cost and maximize benefit is the one adopted

Demographic connections: Migration and Globalization

Search for "greener pastures" Search for cheap labor

Neo-Malthusian Perspective

See the potential a Malthusian Collapse but do not believe that moral restraint is the only way to limit population growth

Marketing Demographics

Segmenting markets - tailoring products and services to a specific demographic group Targeting - aiming the advertising of a product or service to a specific demographic group Cluster marketing - relating demographic information about people to information about where they live.

since the industrial revolution

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution approximately 250 years ago, the size of the world's population has increased dramatically.

migration 1 in 20th-21st centuries

South to North migration (20th & 21st centuries) Latin America and Asia to the United States Asia to Canada Africa and Asia to Europe

400 AD

St. Augustine—Abstinence is the preferred way to deal with sexuality; second best is to marry and procreate.

~1280 a.d.

St. Thomas Aquinas—Celibacy is not better than marriage and procreation.

stage 1: demographic transition

Stage 1: Birth and death rates are high and so are birth rates

stage 2: demographic transition

Stage 2: Transition from high to low birth and death rates. The growth potential is realized as the death rate drops before the birth rate drops, resulting in rapid population growth.

stage 3: demographic transition

Stage 3: Death rates are as low as they are likely to go, while fertility may continue to decline to the point the population might decline.

Why Does the U.S. Have a Census?

"Representatives ... shall be apportioned among the several states, according to their respective numbers."

Who Should Be Included in the U.S. census?

"Representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state." [No reference to citizenship, legal status, race, ethnicity, age, sex or anything else.]

1968- Easterlin Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis —

Successively larger young cohorts put pressure on young men's relative wages, forcing them to make a tradeoff between family size and overall well-being.

Opening it up

Taking the history of mankind in its longue durée ( i.e. giving precedence to long-term historical structures over events), how do you think the three main components of the population equation, which are fertility (births), migration, and mortality (deaths), played a role in determining population size and its distribution in different epochs?

Demographics of Politics

The Census of Population provides data for the apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives (we will look at this in Chap 4). Social movements are related to 1960s : civil rights movement Unemployed youth: Occupy Wall St "Youth bulge" and the Arab Spring?

Doubling time equation

The doubling time is approximately equal to 69 divided by the growth rate. Thus, since the world's rate of growth in the year 2011 is estimated to be 1.2% per year, the doubling time is 58 years.

How Many People Ever Lived?

The formulas of Nathan Keyfitz suggest that a total of 62 billion people have been born over the past 200,000 years, of whom the 7 billion alive in 2011 constitute 11%. [Note: lower percentages shown in some sources assume more years of human history and/or higher birth and death rates in earlier periods of history.]

Crude Birth Rate

# of births in a year/ mid year population often multiplied by 1,000 and expressed as per 1000 in the population CBR is "crude" Doesn't take into account the "population at risk" of giving birth Ignores age structure

cohort squeeze

(a large relative,e.g., cohort resulting from increasing survival)

Chapter 1: History of Human Populations and Global Trends

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Chapter 3

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Chapter 4: Census, Counting People, Politics, Identity

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Cohort Fertility Measures

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Measuring Health and Mortality

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Rational Choice explanations of demographic transitions

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demographic transition is a whole set of transitions

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Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY)

1 DALY One DALY can be thought of as one lost year of 'healthy' life. The sum of these DALYs across the population, or the burden of disease, can be thought of as a measurement of the gap between current health status and an ideal health situation where the entire population lives to an advanced age, free of disease and disability." Source: World Health Organization (WHO)

Causes of Poor Health and Death

1. Communicable diseases bacterial [e.g. tuberculosis] viral [e.g. measles] protozoan [e.g. malaria) maternal conditions Lack of prenatal care Delivering somewhere besides a hospital Seeking an unsafe abortion perinatal ("surrounding birth"—just before and just after birth) conditions nutritional deficiencies non-communicable diseases injuries

Hutterites

11 children per woman in the 1930s: Early age at marriage, good diet, good medical care, regularly engaged in intercourse without contraception or abortion.

life expectancy for most of history

20-30 years fluctuated

infant deaths globally:

33·0% of deaths in children younger than 5 years occur in south Asia and 49·6% occur in sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 1% of deaths occurring in high-income countries. Across 21 regions of the world, rates of neonatal, postneonatal, and childhood mortality are declining.

Children ever born (CEB)

: number of children ever born to a cohort of women

Fecundity—the Biological Component

A fecund person can produce children; an infecund (sterile) person cannot.

infant and child mortality

About 2/3 of babies survived to their first birthday, and about 1/2 were still alive at age five. High infant and child mortality

Preconditions for a Substantial Fertility Decline (Ready, Willing, and Able)

Acceptance of calculated choice as a valid element in marital fertility (ideational changes—the enlightenment, secularization). Perception of advantages from reduced fertility (motivation for limiting fertility). Knowledge and mastery of effective techniques of birth control (controlling reproduction).

rectangularization of mortality

As a result, the variability by age in mortality is compressed, This means most people now survive to advanced ages and die pretty quickly.

How many children could you have?

Assume the couple is fecund First pregnancy at age 15 Little less than 9 months per pregnancy (to account for some pregnancy loss) 18 months between the end of one pregnancy and the start of the next Thus, a woman could have a child every 2.2 years between ages 15 and 49 Which equals 16 live births. And could lead to more than 16 children if some of the births are multiple (i.e., twins, triplets...)

Case study II: China

At the time of the communist revolution (1949) an average Chinese woman was having around 6.2 children Instituted one-child policy 1978 Aimed to attain Zero Population Growth (ZPG) Told people to delay marriage Promote one child family through government incentives Socioeconomic factors (in addition to one-child policy) explain Chinese fertility trends Chinese TFR is above one Why?

Declining Infant Mortality is a Key to Population Growth

Attributable especially to the development of oral rehydration therapy (ORT), a solution of salts and sugars taken orally that treats diarrhea, a major cause of death in young children. ORT was developed in labs and tested in the field, especially in Bangladesh. It is new enough that one of its founders, Dr. Richard Cash, still holds a teaching position at Harvard School of Public Health.

General Fertility Rate

Births in a year/ # of women at childbearing age (15-44) The GFR is also often multiplied by 1,000 and expressed per 1,000 in the population Takes into consideration the at-risk-population

Industrial Revolution to the Twentieth Century

By the early 19th century, after the plague and Little Ice Age had receded and as increasing income improved nutrition, housing, and sanitation, life expectancy in Europe and the U.S. was approximately 40 years. [Was population growth a cause or effect of rising standards of living?] There were as many deaths to children under 5 as there were at 65 and over. Infectious diseases were still the dominant reasons for death, but their ability to kill was diminishing.

Variation in the Transition

Can we tell that the transition has happened? Coale's preconditions need to kick in: Readiness, Willingness, and Ability to control fertility Increase of the age at which women have their 1st child Parity progression ratios Since couples do make fertility decisions one child at a time Sign of transition: if the likelihood of having another child decreases as parity increases

Fertility Intention

Captured through surveys People are asked: About their ideal family size Number of children they would like to have Number of children they plan to have

U.S. Demographic Surveys (besides the ACS):

Current Population Survey Survey on Income and Program Participation American Housing Survey National Survey of Family Growth National Health Interview Survey

Sources of demographic data: censuses

Censuses have a long history, but have been systematically collected only since the late 18th century. First US Census in 1790 They have a tendency to be contentious when different groups use their numbers for political purposes. But, they are also the richest available source of demographic information.

2nd demographic transition

Characterized by: Below-replacement fertility Postponement of marriage Rise in single living Cohabitation in lieu of marriage Prolonged stay into parental (childhood) household

Citizenship, the right to vote, and being counted in the census are very different things

Citizens: 14th Amend, Sec 1 (1868): "All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States." [Why was this important?] Who can vote: Citizens aged 18+ (since 1971) Regardless of race (15th Amend 1870 + Voting Rights Act of 1965) Regardless of sex since 1920 (19th Amend) All American Indians since 1924 (Indian Citizenship

Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Computer-based system which brings maps together with data in innovative ways. Geo-referencing data to places on the map means different types of data can be combined for the same place, and for more than one time. Increases the ability to visualize and analyze demographic changes over time and space.

Census Errors: Non-Sampling

Content Error Coverage Error [Very contentious]

Humoral Theory

Contrary to humoral theory that was dominant before: The human body was thought to contain a mix of the four humors: black bile (also known as melancholy), yellow or red bile, blood, and phlegm. Each individual had a particular humoral makeup, or "constitution," and health was defined as the proper humoral balance for that individual.

Infertile

Couples who have tried unsuccessfully for at least 12 months to conceive a child are usually called "infertile" by physicians.

Administrative Data

Data collected for purposes other than demography, but useful for demographic analysis, such as: Immigration data Social Security data School Enrollment data Tax Returns Moving Companies data Utility Hook-ups and Disconnects

Vital Statistics Data

Data collected on births and deaths, and sometimes on marriages, divorces, and even abortions. In the U.S. these data are collected by the National Center for Health Statistics, which is part of the Centers for Disease Control.

Who Is Included in a Census?

De Facto Population De Jure Population People Included in the Census on the Basis of Usual Residence

Family Control in the "Old Days"

Dealing with Unwanted Children Infanticide, or general neglect (abandonment) or inattention that leads to early death. Fosterage of child by another family that needs or can afford it. Orphanage - involves abandoning a child so she or he is likely to be found and cared for by strangers.

RCT 2: The Theory of Demographic Change and Response Asks What Happens at the Micro (Family) Level

Death rates decline and more children survive; Parents work harder, put children to work; Not enough local jobs to go around as children grow up, so they migrate elsewhere; When they get to urban areas, in particular, they are forced to think about family size and wind up limiting the number of children: change their preferences They may even adopt new norms: about gender, sexuality, and authority

Case Study III: USA

Early adoption of fertility control similar to other regions of the world Function of class, income, education etc Migrants have always brought in different fertility preferences, typically above natives Sanger's contraceptive revolutions in the 20th C Baby boom And baby busts, boomlets, and beyond Remarkable differences in TFR among race/ethnic groups

Case study I: England

Evidence of fertility control as early as late 17C Through withdrawal (coitus interruptus) After industrial revolution Delayed marriage Rising living standard in late 19th C Low fertility

Lowest-Low Fertility

Fertility at or below a TFR of 1.3. Usually characterized by delayed childbearing Potential Causes Demographic distortion of period measures tempo and compositional distortions lower TFR below the associated level of cohort fertility. Socioeconomic changes "increased returns to human capital and high economic uncertainty in early adulthood—have made late childbearing a rational response for individuals and couples." Social interaction effects "reinforce behavioral adjustment and contribute to large and persistent postponement in the mean age at birth." Institutional Factors The institutional setting in Southern, Eastern, and Central European countries (where most of the lowest-low fertility countries are located) "favor an overall low quantum of fertility." E.g. labor market conditions Increased economic insecurity "Postponement-quantum interactions" amplifications of the consequences of the institutional setting factors when coupled with normative shifts in timing of child-bearing. Think of these as

For most of human history: high fertility

For most of human history, fertility was high because of the need to replenish society, especially to combat high infant mortality. Motivating women/couples to have children: Children as security and labor Lower status for women leads to a desire for sons Children as essential for status and prestige Accomplished by Having children early and often (requires control over women) No tolerance for contraception/abortion/infanticide

Changes over time

For virtually all of human history, early death was commonplace. Beginning about 200 years ago, however, we have been steadily pushing death to older ages. The survival of more people to ever older ages is a key contribution to the demographic transition.

Germ Theory

Germ theory states that specific microscopic organisms are the cause of specific diseases which emerged mid 19th C.

Transitions that comprise the overall demographic transition

Health and Mortality Transition - Shift from deaths at younger ages due to communicable disease to deaths at older ages due to degenerative diseases. Fertility Transition - The shift from natural (and high) to controlled (and low) fertility. Age Transition - The changing numbers and percentages of people at each age and sex as mortality and fertility decline, and as migrants flow in and out. The "master transition" because it forces change in societies. Migration Transition - Growth in the number of young people in rural areas will lead to an oversupply of young people looking for jobs, which encourages people to leave in search of economic opportunity Urban Transition - Begins with migration from rural to urban areas and morphs into urban "evolution" as most humans are born in, live in, and die in cities. Family and Household Transition - Diversity in family and household composition and structure brought about by changes that accompany longer life, lower fertility, an older age structure, and urban instead of rural residence.

Defining the Health and Mortality Transition

Health and death are two sides of morbidity and mortality.

Key Elements in Decline Mortality in Young Ages 20th Century:

Health as a social movement Labor rights, the Welfare State Antibiotics More vaccinations Oral rehydration therapy for infants Advanced diagnoses, drugs and other treatments for degenerative diseases to keep older people alive longer

Age Differences in Mortality

Humans are like most other animals with respect to the general pattern of death by age—the very young and the old are most vulnerable, whereas young adults are least likely to die. After the initial year of life, there is a period of time, usually lasting at least until middle age (essentially the reproductive ages), when risks of death are relatively low. Beyond middle age, mortality increases, although at a decelerating rate.

Proximate Determinants of Fertility (main one are highlighted in red)

I: Factors affecting exposure to intercourse (intercourse variables) A. Determinants of formation and dissolution of unions 1. Age of entry into sexual unions B. Determinants of exposure to intercourse within unions III: Factors affecting exposure to conception - "conception variables" 7. Fecundity or infecundity from involuntary causes including breastfeeding (postpartum amenorrhea) 8. Use or non use of contraception III. Factors affecting gestation and successful parturition - "gestation variables" 11. Voluntary fetal mortality (induced abortion)

Key Elements in Decline Mortality in Young Ages 19th Century:

Improved nutrition Clean water Sewerage in cities Small pox vaccinations Validation of germ theory

RCT explanation 1: The Wealth Flow Explanation

In a labor-intensive society children are a source of wealth, i.e., they are labor units Wealth flow is from children to parents and thus "demand" for children is high. Modernization of production ( capital-intensive) simultaneously decreases the demand for children (labor) and in fact also increases the cost of them (e.g., the need to educate them) leading to lower fertility

Race, Ethnicity and Mortality

In societies with more than one racial or ethnic group, one group will tend to dominate, leading to disadvantages for the subordinate group(s) that can result in lower life expectancies. In the U.S., African-Americans and Native Americans have historically experienced higher-than-average death rates

Assumptions of rational choice

Individuals are seen as motivated by the wants or goals that express their "preferences" They act on the basis of the information that they have about the conditions under which they are acting It is not possible for individuals to achieve all of the various things that they want

Nutrition Transition

It used to be that the poor were skinny because only the rich could afford to be fat—not any more. Nutrition transition is a worldwide shift toward a diet high in fat and processed foods and low in fiber, accompanied by less exercise, leading to increases in degenerative diseases. Two of the theories of the rise of obesity Increased consumption of food (of saturated fats and processed sugars, for example) Lack of physical activity: "cave man appetite, modern man physical activity"

Roman Era

Life expectancy in the Roman era is estimated to have been 22 years. People who reached adulthood were not too likely to reach a very advanced age.

Life Span

Life span is the oldest age to which human beings can survive[Is it 122?] Life span is almost entirely a biological phenomenon. [Choose your parents carefully!]

Longevity

Longevity is the age at which we actually die. [Currently about 70 for all humans.]has biological and social components.

Period measures include:

Measure fertility at a specified period Crude birth rate General fertility rate Child-woman ratio Fertility Index Age-specific fertility rate Total fertility rate Gross reproduction rate Net reproduction rate Cohort measure: Measures fertility of a group of people ( a cohort) Cumulated Cohort Fertility Rate Children ever born Fertility intentions: measure people's lifetime fertility intentions Avoid drawbacks of period measures, which are influenced by timing and tempo of births .

Age/sex-specific Death Rate (nMx or ASDR) easuring Mortality

Mortality at each age and sex. ASDR is measured as follows: ASDR or nMx =( ndx / npx ) x 100,000 Where ndx is number of deaths in year for people aged n to n+x (typically 5 year intervals), npx is the population

Child-Woman Ratio

Number of children (aged 0-4)/ # of women in childbearing age Note: CWR age limit is higher than GFR's because some of the children would have been born up to five years prior to the census CWR is especially useful if comprehensive vital statistics are not available

Historical Sources

Parish records and local documents Gravesites (including excavations of ancient burial sites) Genealogies Old censuses, vital statistics, and administrative records

Parity Progression Ratio

Parity Progression Ratio Estimates number of children women would have after having had n children Measured by proportion of women with a given number of children (parity) who progress to have another child PPRi= number of women at parity i + 1 or more number of women at parity i or more Proportion of a cohort who had at least i live births who went on to have at least one more As fertility declines (transition to low fertility) parity progression ratios decline at every parity

Variants of TFR

Parity specific fertility rates Women at parity , p Parity = number of children that a woman has Marital fertility rates Limited to married women

Mechanism: Structural Violence

Paul Farmer's idea of structural violence "Historically given (and often economically driven) processes and forces which conspire to constrain individual agency" of certain social categories (Paul Farmer, 2001, Infections and Inequalities : The Modern Plagues p 82) Think of harms that are a result of social injustices, for instance Results from low symbolic capital (e.g., being a member of a "stigmatized" identity) leading to a higher risk of "symbolic violence" So for example

De Facto Population

People who are in a given territory on census day.

Coverage Error [Very contentious]

People who are missed or who are counted more than once.

De Jure Population

People who legally "belong" to a given area, regardless of whether they were there on the day of the census

World's 10 most populous countries

People's Republic of China India United States Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Nigeria Russia Japan

Content error

Problems with the accuracy of the data obtained in the census. Includes non-responses to particular questions on the census or inaccurate responses if people do not understand the question.

Weaknesses of Rational choice theory

RCT that the decision maker is able to compare all of the alternatives (completeness), and that these comparisons are consistent (transitive). This is often not true in real world. RCT assume near perfect certainty in outcomes (cost, benefit). If uncertainty is involved, then more assumptions have to be made in addition to rational preferences.

Strengths of Rational choice theory

Rational choice approaches combine a "scientific" emphasis on rigorous analytical models with a strong theoretical focus on human values Human preferences, interests, and objectives are used as the basic explanatory and predictive variables of human behavior Rigorous "scientific" techniques borrowed from the natural sciences, ranging from statistical techniques to mathematical modeling, are employed to provide scientific explanation

Weaknesses of rational choice theory

Rationality can also mean that the decision maker always chooses the most preferred option, which is often not true in the real world. Sometimes herd mentality prevails To simplify calculation and make prediction, some rather unrealistic assumptions are made about the world. These can include:

Millennium Development Goal (MDG) # 4 :

Reduce deaths of children under the age of 5 by two thirds by 2015.Worldwide mortality in children younger than 5 years has dropped from 11·9 million deaths in 1990 to 7·7 million deaths in 2010,

The Columbian "Exchange"

Refers to the fact that Columbus and other European explorers took diseases (along with horses and guns) to the Americas (and then brought back new foods and a few new diseases). Their immunity to the diseases they brought, compared with the devastation the diseases wrought on indigenous populations, is one explanation for the relative ease with which Spain dominated Latin America after arriving there around 1500.

Kingsley Davis Generational Relative Status Explanation

Response to population pressure depend on what means individuals have to respond to given demographic changes Response is often for personal goals (national policies have only a small effect) 1st generation: the response to generation pressure is non-demographic E.g. work harder, longer; migrate unwed children etc. 2nd generation: more difficult to put more pressure on dwindling resources To maintain social status similar to or higher than their parents' (which is the typical aspiration), children reduce family size Here Davis echoes Dumont and Mill and contradicts Malthus since the motivation here is the prospect of rising social status as opposed to fear of poverty .

People Included in the Census on the Basis of Usual Residence

Roughly defined as the place where a person usually sleeps.

Chapter 6: Fertility

Shift from high fertility, with minimal individual control, to low fertility, which is entirely under a woman's control. Involves a delay in childbearing and an earlier end to childbearing. Frees women and men from unwanted parenthood and allows them to space their children.

Epidemiologic Transition

Societal-level transition from having high prevalence of infectious diseases to having high prevalence of chronic, degenerative, and non-communicable diseases

The life tables

Statistical tables that summarizes survival rates at different ages (also know as actuarial tables) Based on survival probabilities at different age intervals (based on ASDR)

Explaining Motivations for Fertility with the Supply-Demand Framework

The Easterlin and Becker economic framework emphasizes the need of households to balance the demand for children (what are they good for) with the supply of them. When the supply begins to exceed the demand, then the motivation to limit fertility emerges. Mortality declines and children cannot be afforded. And/or the opportunity costs of children rise Opportunity cost: the opportunity (benefit) forgone by making a particular choice

Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)

The average number of daughters that female members of a birth cohort would bear during their reproductive life span if they were subject to the observed age-specific maternity rates and mortality rates through their lifetimes. NRR is always less than GRR (because some women die before completing their reproduction cycle) NRR is a measure of generational replacement. NRR=1 equals exact replacement fertility NRR < 1 potential population decline Note: population growth can still happen if NRR<1. E.g., in the US in 2006 NRR was only barely greater than 1 even though population was increasing by more than 2.6 million people a year . How come?

Core of rational choice

The core of rational choice is the conception of human beings as homo economicus (economic man) who pursues self-interest (sole motive) to obtain the highest possible well-being for himself at the least possible costs given available information about opportunities and constraints on his ability to achieve his goals. This is referred to as "rationality."

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a year divided by the average total population. In general form: CDR=(d / p) x 1,000 Known as a crude measure because: Does not take into account differentials in sex and age.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The most commonly used measure TFR is the total number of children women are expected to have if they completed their reproductive circle Uses a "synthetic cohort," i.e., data available currently from ASFRs TRF is computed from ASFR With an assumption that women in the future would bear children at the same rates as predicted by ASFRs today Note parallel with Age Specific Mortality Rates (ASMR) and Life expectancy TFR is then just a summation of all ASFR multiplied by the length of age interval (n) specified by the ASFR TFR = ∑ASFR x n

Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

The number of female births an average woman would have if she lived through the end of her reproductive span.

The Middle Ages

The plague, or Black Death, hit Europe in the fourteenth century, having spread west from Asia. It is estimated 1/3 of the population of Europe may have perished from the disease between 1346 and 1350. It appears to be the same disease that still exists in the world today—we don't really know why it was so fatal back then.

Global Demographic Contrasts

The previous maps illustrate the North-South divide. The south has higher birth rates, higher death rates, and younger populations than the north. These differences, and the variability within the south in these differences, will drive the future.

RCT explanation 3: Easterlin Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis

The standard of living you experience in late childhood is the base from which you evaluate your chances as an adult. If you can improve your income as an adult compared to your childhood level, you are more likely to marry early and have several children. Conversely, a cohort squeeze (a large relative,e.g., cohort resulting from increasing survival) will result in delayed marriage and smaller family sizes.

Data collected in the census, by the vital statistics registration system, or derived from administrative records may have the following problems:

They are usually collected for purposes other than demographic analysis and do not reflect the theoretical concerns of demography. They are collected by many different people using different methods and may be prone to numerous kinds of error

Assumptions of rational choice (Continued)

They must make choices in relation to both their goals and the means for attaining these goals Rational choice theories hold that individuals must anticipate the outcomes of alternative courses of action and calculate that which will be best for them Rational individuals choose the alternative that is likely to give them the greatest satisfaction (utility)

The "Real Causes" of Death in Low-Mortality Societies

Tobacco Diet and Activity Patterns Alcohol Misuse Infectious Diseases Toxic Agents Motor Vehicles Guns Sex Drugs

Beyond Supply-Demand: The Innovation/Diffusion and "Cultural" Perspective

Two theories of social stratification have strong implications for fertility behavior: Cultural innovation takes place in higher social strata as a result of privilege, education, and resources; lower social strata adopt new preferences through imitation. Rigid social stratification or closure of class or caste inhibits downward cultural mobility.

Health and Mortality Inequalities

Urban and Rural Differentials Urban now better than rural. Neighborhood Inequalities "Bad" neighborhoods are bad for your health Educational Differentials The better educated live longer. Social Status Differentials The rich live longer. Race and Ethnicity Differentials Being different will be used against you. Marital Status Being married is good for your health.

Sample surveys

Used frequently to gather demographic data. However, they provide less extensive geographic coverage than a census or system of vital registration.

Fertility Index (If)

Useful for making comparisons across societies If = Im X Ig Where Im is the proportion of female population that is married, and Ig is the index of marital fertility Index of marital fertility is the ratio of marital fertility (live births per 1000 married women) to the marital fertility of Hutterites in 1930s highlights changes overtime in fertility due to proportion of women who are married (marriage rates) from changes over time due to shifts in reproduction within marriages.

Populations with high mortality

are those with high morbidity.

Mortality by Sex (Gender)

Women (sex) have a lower probability of death at every age from the moment of conception... ...unless society intervenes with a lower status for women (gender) that gives them less food, less access to health care, etc.

missing women

a shortfall in the number of women in Asia relative to the number that would be expected if there were no sex-selective abortion or female infanticide or if the newborn of both sexes received similar levels of health care and nutrition. About 60 -100 million women "missing" in India National decline from 945 to 927 in the number of girls per 1,000 boys aged 0-6 between 1991 and 2001 on India Source: UNFPA, Missing: Mapping the Adverse Child Sex Ratio in India, - See more at: http://india.unfpa.org/?publications=235 The phenomenon has led to skewed sex ratio in China

At the other end of the age continuum

around 10% of people made it to age 65 in a premodern society.

Replacement fertility rate

at which women would roughly replace themselves and their partner (and thus their generation) 2 children in their life time. Though replacement fertility rate is adjusted to take into account the fact that not all women would complete their reproduction, therefore, it slightly greater than 2 in industrialized nations is estimated to be 2.1.

Postponing Death

by Preventing and Curing Disease

"Natural fertility"

may be closer to 6 or 7 children per woman (matching the high mortality).

Cumulated Cohort Fertility Rate (CCFR):

measures births to date for a given birth cohort E.g., women born in 1915 had given birth to 890 babies per 1000 by 1940

Age-Specific Fertility RatesASFR

number of births occurring in a year to mothers age x to x + n (nbx) per 1000 women of that age (nFx)

Expectation of Life at birth

or more generally life expectancy, is derived from the life table. Definition: Life expectancy of a person aged x, ex, means the number of years a person aged x is expected to live assuming that mortality experience (causes of death at every age) remain constant throughout her/his life. Life expectancy is specific to a given age The most used one is the life expectancy at birth, e0.

Mortality

refers to the pattern of death

Morbidity

refers to the prevalence of disease in a population.

The health and mortality transition

refers to the shift from prevailing poor health and high death rates from infectious diseases occurring especially among the young, to prevailing good health and low deaths rates from infectious diseases, with most people dying at older ages from degenerative diseases.

Enlightenment: Condorcet and Godwin

writings stimulated malthus to rebut them

Population/date of neolithic revolution

The population of the world on the eve of the Agricultural Revolution (a.k.a. Neolithic Agrarian Revolution) 10,000 years ago is estimated at about 4 million.

Demography Definition

The scientific study of human population. The term was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard, who used it in the title of his book Éléments de Statistique Humaine ou Démographie Comparée.

Doubling Time

The time required for a population to double if the current rate of growth continues.

1963-Theory of Demographic Change and Response

Theory of Demographic Change and Response—Demographic response made by individuals to population pressures is determined by the means available to them to respond; causes and consequences of population change are intertwined.

Finding answers to these Questions:

What are the causes of population growth or, at least, population change? What are the consequences of population growth or change? What is the relationship between socioeconomic "development" and demographic changes? Does demography drive socioeconomic development or is it the other way round?

Prelude to Malthus: Enlightenment

What characterizes the Age of Enlightenment? Belief in rights of individuals vs the monarchy The era that ushered in the French and then the American The Enlightenment was extremely important in changing the way people thought about the world and Malthus was a product of the Enlightenment though he didn't completely agree with some of it, especially he viewed enlightenment ideas as too optimistic and somewhat utopian E.g the idea of limitless human capacity, perfection of man etc

Why do we need demographers?

b/c change happens. The world's population will continue to increase for the rest of our lives. Even though virtually all of it will take place in developing countries (indeed, cities of those countries), we will experience the consequences and our lives will be different in the future than they are now as a result.

1971-present Decomposition of the Demographic Transition into its Separate Transitions

health and mortality, fertility, age, migration, urban, and family and household.

Modern social demography as a field is (unashamedly) positivist,

i.e., it is empirical in that we use data [surveys, censuses (censi ?), ethnographic observation, etc.] to test theories and hypotheses, and then conclusions are drawn and sometimes new theories are formulated

middle of the 18th century

industrial revolution- the population of the world was approaching one billion and was increasing by about 2.2 million every year.

Modernization Theory Underlies the Demographic Transition at the Macro-Level

is macro-level theory that sees human actors as being buffeted by changing social institutions Individuals did not deliberately lower their risk of death to precipitate the modern decline in mortality. Society wide increases in income and improved public health infrastructure brought about this change. Controversially, modernization theory explanations would suggest that all countries will eventually follow the demographic path experienced by Western European nations Assumes all societies follows a linear path from a "traditional" to a "modern" society

doctrine

likely to imply certitude (and answers) make reference to notions of absolute truth may suggest to have been divinely inspired by a "higher power" not tested empirically (in fact, may be untestable) may aspire to make claims of having universal and timeless answers

5th century to 14th century

population growth recovered

Godwin

scientific progress will stimulate food supply the problems of the poor are a product of inequities of social institutions

By 1 A.D.

there may have been almost 250 million people on the planet, increasing by nearly 300,000 a year.

migration 2

urban revolution In earlier decades, as population grew dense in a region, people moved to a less populated area, now they move to urban areas. As recently as 1800, less than 1% of the world's population lived in cities of 100,000 or more. More than 1/3 of all humans now live in cities of that size, and more than half live in urban places of any size. Urban populations grew in some countries even without industrialization, as places sprang up where goods and services were exchanged.

modern social scientific theory

use evidence to provide explanations and interpretations of "social reality" develops tentative explanations (theories and hypotheses) that sort out evidence to highlight patterns (of social behavior, social action, social structure/institutions etc.) pays attention to context

1945

Demographic Transition in its Original Form—The process whereby a country moves from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.

Why Was Early Growth Slow?

During the hunting-gathering phase, life expectancy was very low (~ 20 years). More than half of children born died before age 5. The average woman who survived to the reproductive years would have to bear nearly 7 children to assure 2 survived to adulthood.