STIA Final Fall 23
2014 Biosafety Incidents in the United States
"potential release events" of US select agents in 2003-2009 - Smallpox found in NIH storage room is alive - after eradication, they held onto it for research purposes (Atlanta CDC, USSR facility) Concerns over safety incidents at CDC and NIH in 2014
Epochs in Space and Global Security: 1970s-1980s - Late Cold War
- Advances in satellite technology revolutionise military affairs - Precision-guided munitions and reconnaissance data enhance capabilities. - High-capacity secure communications and missile launch detection improve strategic awareness. - Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) introduces the idea of orbit-based missile defense, influencing Soviet targeting calculations. - Seeds of technologies for small satellites, space tracking, and space manoeuvres are planted
What is space debris?
- Any human-made object that no longer serves its purpose - Can last decades in orbits near the earth - Essentially lasts forever at high altitudes
How to reduce risks in research?
- Biosafety and biosecurity education and training for all scientists and laboratory workers - Codes of conduct for scientists and laboratory workers in life sciences research - Guidelines on communication and dissemination of dual-use research methodology and research results - Strategies for promoting national and international dialogue on DU issues and emerging tech
What is the American-driven competition between the US-China in regards to space?
- Congress barred NASA from collaborating with Chinese space agencies and subsidiaries - China denied participation in the International Space Station (ISS)
What other legal tools are there in Space governance?
- Custom and precedent: Rely also on customs common to international and maritime law - Other treaties and laws: e.g. Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 - But also a lot of gray zone!
Epochs in Space and Global Security: 1960s-1970s - Early Cold War
- Emergence and growth of activities in orbit and use of high-altitude aircraft for reconnaissance as the Cold War began - Development of ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) - Satellites played a crucial role in missile launch warning systems. - Provided reconnaissance capabilities for denied areas and early missile launch detection. - Contributed to nuclear command and control, enhancing national security - Information from satellites was vital for national leaders in making strategic decisions
China's space program milestones
- First astronaut in space in 2003 - Achieved first spacewalk in 2008 - Attempted Mars mission in 2011 (Yinghuo 1) - Tiangong-1 launched in 2011, hosted crews in 2012/2013 (single module spacecraft) - Tiangong-2 in 2016/2017 with two astronauts for 30 days
Key tenets of the OST
- Free for exploration by all states - Not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty - No nuclear weapons/other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies - Moon & other celestial bodies used exclusively for peaceful purposes - States responsible & liable for activities within their boundaries - Astronauts should be regarded as envoys of mankind - Avoid harmful contamination
Principles of Global Health Security
- Global Health should be equitable and inclusive - Minimum level of disease prevention, detection and response capabilities is critical for all countries - Compliance with regulation and international rules - Strengthening capacities across all levels of society - Requires a one health approach (animals, humans and the environment are linked) - Moral and ethical duty for those with resources to help those without - Commit to sustainable, comprehensive funding mechanisms
Fink Proposed System of Review
- Institutional Biosafety Committee (IBC) - first line of review - Journal Editors - through peer review publication - National Science Advisory Board for Biodefense - advisory to the Secretary of Health and Human Services - International Forum on Biosecurity - as a counterpart for the US system
The Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space created by UNOOSA
- Limit debris released during nominal operations - Minimise the potential for break-ups during operational phases - Limit the probability of accidental collusion in orbit - Avoid intentional destruction and other harmful activities - Minimise the potential for post-mission breakups - Limit long-term presence of spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages in LEO/CEo after the end of the mission - Compliance is low
What is life?
- Made of cells? Displays of organisation, growth & development? Reproduction? Adaptation through the process of evolution? Responses to stimuli? The use of energy... - NASA's working definition: "A self sustaining chemical system capable of undergoing Darwinian evolution"
Commercialisation of space: how is the Private Sector engaging with Space Exploration?
- Mars exploration - Satellites (communications, imagery, navigation etc.) - Space transportation - Space tourism - Space mining (planetary resources, deep space industries)
Epochs in Space and Global Security: 1990s-2000s - US Preeminence
- Political shift post-Cold War and Soviet Union's collapse. - Satellites retain strategic roles, evolving to support air, sea, and land warfare information dimensions. - Initially praised for improved precision in conflicts like the Gulf War. - Satellites and other space technology reduces the severity of war by allowing for more precise bombing - Growing recognition that disrupting satellites could undermine US military effectiveness. - US satellite design and operation approach remains largely unchanged amidst evolving global dynamics
Updating Norms: Reforming the IHR
- Potential for up to 10 amendments/new annex, Started with process amendment (article 59) - PHEIC: notifications and triggers for action - Transparency and guidance for Member States - Response: rapid investigative teams - Compliance: linked to capacity building, travel and trade recs and reporting - Information sharing: as linked to CBD/Nagoya, PIP models, possible use of Art 11 to trigger sharing requirements
Space tourism - Suborbital flights
- Spaceship One and the X Prize (2004) - Virgin Galactic (2021), VSS Unity - Blue Origin (2021), New Shephard
Why is Mars a goal/long term destination?
- Terraforming (It may be possible to make Mars into a more Earth-like place) - Close (relatively speaking) - Alignment with priority science questions - A means for the survival of the human race ("if dinosaurs had a space program, they wouldn't have gone extinct")
How did China respond to being denied from participating in the ISS?
- Tiangong Station is China's own space station - Hosting international experiments - Aiming to position China as a leader in space exploration
When deliberate use is officially suspected
- immediate surge in # of organizations involved in governance/policy & in safety/security - non-affected member states likely to be involved - heavy involvement form many UN agencies in gov & policy roles, supporting affected govt
How has interest in space exploration changed over time in the US?
-Peaked in 1960s during the space war - Now has levelled off - Now only receives 0.5% of federal budget
When first cases are identified
-most stakeholders are local/regional - governance and policy is managed by national ministries - limited security involvement (maybe local law enforcement) or humanitarian aid (maybe local NGOs already in-country)
Where is Satellite Data found/used for?
1. Commerce 2. Science 3. GPS/Timing signal - cellphone towers (navigation) 4. Climate tracking data 5. (Inter)National Security 6. Global Internet Data
Singapore Statement
1. GHS is only sustainable when part of universal health systems 2. needs to include multi-sectoral expertise 3. need enhanced surveillance 4. sustainable finance 5. improve health literacy
Outbreak Steps
1. Incident Occurs - new/existing pathogen introduced to a community & starts its spread 2. Outbreak Suspected - laboratory confirms symptoms identified by local clinics - teams monitor official/unofficial reports of potential disease events from varying media sources - case definition: working description of who is/who is not a case 3. Investigation Started - countries conduct lab tests/send specimens for testing - disease detectives investigate to determine the source & size of outbreak 4. Reporting - authorities report disease outbreak to appropriate national & international orgs in accordance w/ International Health Regulations 5. Global Response Initiated - implement control measures, enhance local surveillance systems to track outbreaks, conduct public health & education, improve local lab testing for faster diagnosis
What are the three US agencies involved in space and what is there is purpose?
1. NASA - civilian, used for national security purposes 2. United States Space Force (military space force - was a part of the air force) 3. National Reconnaissance Office (intelligent space agency)
Type of Orbital Debris
1. Non-operational Spacecraft - More than 3000! 2. Derelict Launch Vehicles - More than 30 percent (>1700) of the launch vehicle stages used remain in the Earth orbit 3. Mission-Related Debris - Most falls back to Earth 4. Fragmentation Debris from explosions or collisions
Epochs in Space and Global Security: 1940s-1950s - Emergence of Space launches
1. Rockets as long range artillery 2. Aircraft reconnaissance 3. Emergence of intercontinental nuclear strike via rockets 4. First orbital launches 5. Orbital bombardment? Nuclear Weapons in space?
Convention on Biological Diversity (1993)
1993 Aim: conserve biological diversity, ensure its sustainable use and ensure that the benefits arising from the use of genetic resources are shared fairly and equitably Article 15 - recognizes sovereign rights of states over natural resources & to determine access to genetic resources within their borders create conditions to facilitate access to genetic resources
Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework (2011) (PIP)
2011 The Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Framework, established in May 2011, is a global initiative aimed at enhancing pandemic influenza preparedness and response. Aim: to improve pandemic influenza preparedness and response, strengthen Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System(GISRS) with a goal of fair, transparent, equitable, efficient, effective system for, on an equal footing, the sharing of influenza viruses with human pandemic potential and access to vaccines and sharing of other benefits
Nagoya Protocol (2014)
2014; an international treaty ensuring the "fair and equitable sharing" of benefits arising from genetic resources
1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST)
A multilateral treaty that forms the basis of international space law
Consequences of Kessler syndrome
According to Kessler, "Space is becoming essential to our current civilisation. If for any reason we weren't able to use satellites as easily as we do today, there would be a reduction in the standard of living"
How is space debris being managed?
Active debris removal - But even with good compliance and commonly adopted mitigations measures, problem is likely to grow - Would need about 50 removals to prevent one collision - Might require billions of dollars per year?
International Health Regulations (IHR)
An international legal instrument that provides a framework for countries to prevent, protect against, control, and respond to public health risks that have the potential to cross borders. It is legally binding on 196 countries, including the 194 WHO Member States.
2012 U.S. Government Policy for Oversight of Life Sciences DualUse Research of Concern (DURC)
Assess risks and benefits of all research projects using specific agents or toxins on the Select Agent list that might: • Make the agent or toxin more harmful • Interfere with generation of immunity to the agent or toxin • Make the agent or toxin resistant to interventions or detection • Increase the stability, transmissibility, or the ability to disseminate the agent or toxin • Alter the host range or tropism of the agent or toxin; • Enhance the susceptibility of a host population to the agent or toxin • Generate or reconstitute specific agents or toxins considered extinct or eradicated
How would you get to Mars via an asteroid?
Asteroid Redirect Mission The main objective of the mission was to develop deep space exploration capabilities needed in preparation for a human mission to Mars. - Announced in 2010 under Obama - Envisioned for launch in the 2020s - Lasso a near-Earth asteroid - Demonstrate a planetary defence mechanism - Bring it back into lunar orbit for further study - Samples back to Earth
Curiosity (2012-present) (The US)
Conducts experiments to assess the planet's past habitability and analyse the composition of rocks and soil. Uncovered evidence that Mars had water and was once potentially a habitable planet.
Epochs in Space and Global Security: 2010s-2020s - Emerging Competition
Current Challenges for the US: - China conducts Anti-Satellite Tests, posing near-term challenges for the US - US military objectives face potential risk due to satellite vulnerability - Temptation for preemption in space due to perceived satellite vulnerability - Escalation risks in the current crisis-prone environment. Opportunities for US National Security - Enhance satellite resilience individually, considering technological feasibility and implementation - Deter space system attacks, recognizing US dependency on space - Develop terrestrial alternatives to reduce reliance on satellites - Support international agreements, either restrictive (treaty-based rules) or cooperative (military, civil, scientific) - Explore new satellite architectures and orbits for increased resilience against attacks
Gain of Function
Defined broadly as a mutation that confers a new or enhanced activity to a protein often to study its properties
Fink Committee Report (2004)
Developed to help protect life sciences scientific community against potential misuse of biological materials and information Protect scientific enquiry and communication to the maximum extent possible Committee proposed a system that would establish a number of stages at which experiments and eventually their results would be reviewed System relies on voluntary self governance by the scientific community and expansion of an existing regulatory process
Dual-Use Research of Concern (DURC)
Dual use research is legitimate life sciences research that is intended for benefit, developed for beneficial purposes, but which might yield information and/or technology that can easily be misapplied for malevolent purposes I.e gain of function research with bird flu
How has space become more accessible?
During the cold war, it was just the US and the Soviet Union. But since then, space has become far more accessible since then with more countries having space agencies, and the private sector getting involved.
What role do satellites play with respect to nuclear weapons?
Early Warning Systems: - Detect and track ballistic missile launches, including those with nuclear warheads. Surveillance, and Reconnaissance: - Monitor and assess nuclear facilities, missile sites, and relevant areas for strategic planning. Navigation and Targeting: - Satellite-based navigation systems (e.g., GPS) enable precise targeting of nuclear weapons.
Why is Mars such a compelling destination?
Earths and mars were similar early in their histories Understand why the planets took such divergent paths Unlock secrets of the early solar system Possibility of discovering extinct or extant life
What are the mid-term goals of the artemis program?
Establish an ongoing human presence on the moon
What did different delegations want when making the OST
Everyone - No nuclear weapons in space The US - Transparency: reporting of all space activities to UNSec/general public - Right to inspect foreign installations in space The USSR - Equal access to tracking facilities - Explicit permission from host countries before inspections The Global South - An end to colonialism - A voice in space politics
How well is the OST equipped for the 21st century?
Fails to consider / predict / fully address: - Private sector - New actors/nations - Satellites - New advancements in technology and weaponry - Passengers (space tourism) - Space Debris
Geostationary Orbit
GEO Orbit - 35,000+ km orbit - 12% of satellites - GPS satellites, orbital period once every 12h
Evolution of US Space Policy (21st century)
George W Bush - called for a crewed return to the moon by 2020, then Mars, complete the ISS ad then retire the shuttle fleet, replace with the constellation program (2004) Barack Obama - cancels Constellation, directed Nasa to focussing on getting humans to an asteroid by 2025 then mars , ISS trips with Russian soyuz, jump start commercial flight embrace of private sector (2010) Donald Trump - Artemis program a return to the moon by 2024, creation of a small space station in orbit around the moon (2017) Joe Biden - endorse Artemis, also focussing on climate science and earth observations, Space Force branch of the US military (2021-ongoing)
Global Health Security Definition
Global health security is a state of freedom from the scourge of infectious disease, irrespective of origin or source. It is achieved through the policies, programs and activities taken to prevent, detect, respond to and recover from biological threats
Reducing Infectiousness
Goal is to decrease the number of people who can infect others or to reduce the likelihood that an infected individual will infect contacts - Classical Medical Treatment: cure infection, suppress pathogen load - Death also limits the spread of diseases, which is the basis of culling during veterinary outbreaks
Preventing Contact Capable of Transmission
Goal is to reduce transmission-capable contacts between ppl who can infect & people who can be infected - Can be done by preventing contact/by making contact safter
How would you get to Mars via LEO?
ISS (International Space Station) - Composed of 5 agencies (NASA, Roscosmos, JAXA,ESA, and CSA) (Russia is pulling out) - Microgravity and space research laboratory: - Testing spacecraft systems & equipment require for possible future long-duration missions to the Moon and Mars Testing long duration spaceflight - Lots of international cooperation: more than a dozen countries contributed to initial costs and maintenance
Catalogued Debris
In LEO, debris larger than 10cm, which can be tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network In GEO, the sensitivity of tracking instruments degrades, which means catalogued debris in this environment is generally larger than 70 cm
Low Earth Orbit
LEO Orbit - 500-2000 km altitude - 84% of satellites - ISS
What are the long term goals of the artemis program?
Lay the foundations for the extraction of lunar resources, crewed missions to Mars and beyond feasible
Frameworks for Emerging Infectious Disease Governance
Levels of Governance - Subnational policies and implementation - National policies strategies and regulations - Regional Agreements - International Agreements Multilateral Agreements - 50 international agreements used during the pandemic
Challenges of getting to Mars
Life support Radiation exposure Bone density loss Mental health Space qualified materials Propulsion technology Communications challenges
Different Types of Space Orbit
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) Geostationary Orbit (GEO) Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO)
The Artemis Program
Lunar exploration program set up by Trump in 2017
Evolution of US Space Policy (20th century)
Lyndon B Johnson - Outer Space Treaty (1967) Richard Nixon - Apollo Landings, approves development of the space shuttle program and also Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (early 1970s) Gerald Ford - Creates Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) (1976) Jimmy Carter - Establishes a right to self-defence in space (~1978) Ronald Reagan - Set up the office of Commercial Space transportation, and "Star wars" (1983-84) George H.W. Bush - Space Station Freedom, also called for a permanent presence on the moon followed by a Mars mission (1989) Bill Clinton - beginning of construction on the International Space Station, enhanced human and robotic exploration (1990s)
Medium Earth Orbit
MEO Orbit - 8,000-20,000 km altitude - 3% of satellites - Equatorial orbit, orbiting every 24h & travelling at the same rate as the earth
When is Mars' launch window and what determines it?
Mars has a retrograde motion: Opposition: Mars is close and bright Periods of opposition are when sun and mars are on opposite sides of the earth. - Every 26 months we come into a time of opposition (launch opportunities - get to mars with least amount of expenditure of energy) Conjunction: Mars is distant and faint. Periods of conjunction are when Mars and the sun are on the same side of earth
Incentives for Commercialisation
Minimise regulatory burden - Legal Liability Secure Markets - Purchase and use commercial services to the maximum practical extent - Refrain from activities that preclude, discourage or compete with commercial sector
Epochs in Space and Global Security: 2030s - 2040s - Future Space Competition ??
More satellites in space: Low Earth Orbit - just Starlink, approx 4900 satellites Future predictions - 10,000 to 71,000 satellites in LEO
What are non scientific reasons to have an active human exploration of space/mars?
Nationalism - National prestige, National leadership Economic Incentives Develop STEM New Technologies Long-Term Survival Own interests Military Informational superiority The soft power Perspective
Biosecurity
Practices to ensure the protection and control of biological materials in laboratories to protect them from theft, loss, or misuse
PHEIC
Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Gives WHO legal authority during times of crisis.
Making Susceptible People Immune
Reduces the number of susceptibles with whom infectious people can interact Primary tool is vaccination - can also give an immune person's antibodies to susceptible person to prevent some diseases - Prophylactic treatment works on same idea
What are the near term goals of the artemis program?
Return to the moon (specifically the lunar south pole)
Why send humans to mars?
Returned samples - NASA undertakes the collection of samples that would come back to earth for scientific analysis
Space tourism - Orbital flights
Soyuz (Russia) - Dennis Tito to the ISS (2001, $20M) - Several others on the Soyuz - Stopped in 2003-2005, 2011 SpaceX (2021), Inspiration 4 - Three days in orbit aboard the Crew Dragon Resilience In Progress - Boeing, Bigelow, Aurora Station, Axiom Space, etc.
Global Health Security: Desired End State
Stop infectious disease events from becoming global pandemics through a strong global system combining domestic capacities and global governance for: - Early warning - Coordinated rapid response - And containment strategies that include manufacturing and distribution of medical countermeasures
Genome Modification
Technology for gene modification has existed for a number of years, but was onerous New technology has made it much easier to edit and modify genomes
How would you get to Mars via the Moon?
The Constellation Program - Established in 2004 by George W Bush - Earth --> Moon --> Mars - Establish a sustained human presence on the Moon then head to Mars Augustine Committee (2009) - Constellation program was behind schedule, underfunded, and over budget, it would be impossible to meet its goals - New goal: $230B by 2025
Viking (1976-1982) (The US)
The Viking program was the first to successfully land spacecraft on Mars. It conducted experiments to search for signs of life and performed the first comprehensive analysis of the Martian soil.
What patterns can be noticed in orbital satellites?
The fastest growth is in orbits very close to the Earth, where the first satellites were orbited As a consequence, LEO contains more than half of the known space debris
Kessler Syndrome
The issue of space debris management: a scenario in which collisions between objects in low Earth orbit create a cascade of debris, making space regions unusable due to the high risk of further collisions. Essentially, it reaches a point where you can't go anywhere in orbit without getting constantly hit by space debris.
Biosafety
The practices and equipment that ensure that lab workers, and the environment are protected from infectious pathogens and biological hazards
What is astrobiology?
The study of the "living universe" including the search for life via in situ exploration and remote observation.
Perseverance and Ingenuity (2021) (The US)
These recent missions aim to search for signs of past microbial life and collect samples for potential return to Earth.
Mars Pathfinder (1997) (The US)
This mission achieved the first successful deployment of a Mars rover, Sojourner, which performed in-situ analyses of Martian rocks and soil. It set the stage for future rover missions.
Mariner 9 (1971-1972)(The US)
This mission became the first spacecraft to orbit another planet. It discovered large volcanoes and canyon systems on Mars. Change our perception from dead planet to something more complex.
Mariner 4 (1965) (The US)
This mission provided the first close-up images of Mars, revealing a cratered surface similar to the Moon. Changes the perception of Mars from a potentially habitable world to a more Moon-like, seemingly lifeless planet.
Mars Global Surveyor (1997-2006) (the US)
This orbiter provided high-resolution images, coloured, detailed topographical maps and images of Mars.
July 2010 Executive Order: Select Agents
Tier and potentially reduce the select agent list (which was a result of the 1996 Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act) Create security advisory panel of federal expert (FESAP)
PEPFAR
US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief is a national commitment to reducing the global prevalence of AIDS.
What pattern can be found in the history of US space policy?
Very inconsistent, many reasons but largely because space as a priority has fluctuated over time, and voters especially don't have space as a priority
What are three ways of getting to Mars?
Via 1. Low earth orbit (LEO) 2.The moon 3. An asteroid Some other way?
Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO)
When an object moves around another object in an oval shaped path, it is known to be revolving in an elliptical orbit. All planets move in elliptical orbits around the sun. The Moon also moves around earth in an elliptical orbit. - 1% of satellites - Satellite radio
Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (1972)
first multilateral treaty banning an entire category of weapons of mass destruction prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling, and use of biological and toxin weapons International assistance and cooperation - assist states exposed to danger as a result of violation of BWC, encourage peaceful use of bio science & tech