week 2
Ideological Conflicts
-Conflicts revolving around identity ~ May involve material goods (land, resources), but most salient issue is some aspect of identity (religion, ethnicity, etc.) -Recall our discussion of "nationalism" ~Idea that the nation and state should be congruent -Nationalism is a continuum ~Some versions are benign... ~Others, not so much... a) soccer players pride v.s not so benign which is a picture of someone hailing Hitler (poster saying it is the measles of mankind and posting it as a bad thing whereas patriotism is good)
Terrorism: Possible Causes?
-Ideology Left Wing: Red Brigades, Baader-Meinhof, Weather Underground Right wing: Modern KKK, Christian Patriots a) terroist attacks by ideology extremist -Globalization • Cross-border trade/finance and declining barriers to migration as "fuel"? -War Failed states / lack of monopoly on violence Religious / ethnic mobilization Islamic groups' "roaming" in Iraq/Syria/Middle East -Communication & technology • Efficient mobilization of people and money ~US/European/Israeli foreign policy In previous eras, French/British/etc. -Terrorism as asymmetric opposition to powerful states' intervention / policies ~Authoritarian regimes in the Middle East - Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia - Dictators in other Middle East states ~Economic (under)development ~"Ancient hatreds" a) Israel and Palestine (?)
5.2.4 Islamist Movements
-Islamist actors are active participants in 12 of the world's 14 wars in progress. In addition, the U.S. "war on terror" is directed against a network of Islamic terror groups. However, most Islamist movements are not violent.-Its divergent populations include Sunni Muslims (the majority), Shi'ite Muslims (concentrated in Iran, southern Iraq, southern Lebanon, and Bahrain), and many smaller branches and sects. Most countries with mainly Muslim populations belong to the Islamic Conference, an intergovernmental organization (IGO)., but with the largest populations in South and Southeast Asia. Many international conflicts around this zone involve Muslims on one side and non-Muslims on the other, as a result of geographical and historical circumstances including colonialism and oil.-Islamist-The more radical Islamist movements not only threaten some existing governments—especially those tied to the West—but also undermine traditional norms of state sovereignty., Islamists in Middle Eastern countries, like revolutionaries elsewhere, derive their main base of strength from championing the cause of the poor masses against rich elites., In a public opinion poll in 2010 in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, a plurality of respondents identified primarily as Muslims, more than identified primarily as citizens of their states or as Arabs.-The 2003 Iraq War inflamed anti-American feeling and helped radicalize politics across the Muslim world, especially in Arab countries that saw the U.S. invasion as a humiliation to Arab dignity., presidency of Barack Hussein Obama, whose middle name reflects Muslim family roots in Kenya, By 2018, already low American favorability ratings in the Arab world fell even lower when the Trump administration announced the relocation of the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem—a move criticized by all Arab states.
Terrorism: Solutions and Responses?
-Sit along a spectrum from more to less force -Direct military retaliation -Counter-intelligence/law enforcement approaches- Ex.PeruandtheShiningPath- Debate:tensionbetweencivillibertiesandcounter-terrorism? -Crackdown on financing/money laundering -Key goals: breaking the narrative and capabilities of terrorist organizations
6.3 Terrorism
-The U.S. State Department listed 61 foreign terrorist organizations in 2018. Some are motivated by religion (for example, al Qaeda) but others by class ideology (for example, Shining Path in Peru) or by ethnic conflict and nationalism (for example, Basque Fatherland and Liberty)-Terrorism refers to political violence that targets civilians deliberately and indiscriminately. Beyond this basic definition, other criteria can be applied, but the definitions become politically motivated: One person's freedom fighter is another's terrorist-Traditionally, the purpose of terrorism is to demoralize a civilian population in order to use its discontent as leverage on national governments or other parties to a conflict.-the primary effect of terrorism is psychological. In part, the effectiveness of terrorism in capturing attention is due to the dramatic nature of the incidents, especially as shown on television news, randomness of victims,millions of people realize "It could have been me", Attacks on airplanes augment this fear because many people already fear flying-al Qaeda's attacks follow a somewhat different pattern, planned less to create fear than simply to kill as many Americans and their allies as possible, become more deadly over the past 50 years-psychological impact was even stronger than the physical damage—changing the U.S. political and cultural landscape instantly-The classic cases of terrorism—from the 1970s to the 2001 attacks—are those in which a nonstateactor uses attacks against civilians by secret nonuniformed forces, operating across international borders, as leverage against state actors-Such tactics create spectacular incidents that draw attention to the terrorists' cause. For example, the bombing of the Boston Marathon in 2013 was an unsophisticated attack by two brothers, yet it preoccupied news media for weeks afterward., terrorism is used by radical factions of movements that have not been able to get attention or develop other effective means of leverage., tactic of desperation, always reflects weakness in the power position of the attacker.-Yet the persistence of terrorism is in some ways puzzling because the tactic has a mixed record of success., Videos of beheadings of hostages by ISIS fighters rallied global efforts to defeat that movement in Iraq and Syria., terrorist activities do not reliably achieve political ends.-suicide bombings are not an irrational use of violence by terrorist groups and follow strategic patterns In particular, they occur most frequently against democracies rather than autocracies, presumably because democracies are thought to be strongly influenced by public opinion, terror tactic has not been particularly successful at achieving significant goals.-The narrowest definition of terrorism would exclude acts either by or against uniformed military forces rather than civilians.
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
An old concern given new importance in the age of terrorism Previous concern: vertical proliferation (US vs. USSR) -A type of proliferation in which states which already have WMD build more. For example, the nuclear arms race during the Cold War. Concern beginning in 1970s: horizontal proliferation -A type of proliferation in which states that have not had WMD capabilities in the past acquire those weapons for the first time. Current concern: both horizontal and non-state proliferation Biggest post-Cold War threat... (?) a) who has them? we don't know exactly who b) nuclear weapons evolution since WWII
Syrian Civil War
An ongoing armed conflict in Syria between forces loyal to the Syrian Ba'ath Party government and those seeking to oust it. The conflict began on 15 March 2011, with popular demonstrations that grew nationwide by April 2011. Protesters demanded the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad, whose family has held the presidency in Syria since 1971.
5.2.4 Armed Islamist Groups*
Anti-American and anti-Western sentiments in predominantly Islamic countries have accelerated the growth of violent Islamist groups as well, -Overall, conflicts involving Islamist movements are more complex than simply religious conflicts; they concern power, economic relations, ethnic chauvinism, and the effects of historical empires as well.
Opportunities and Civil War
Are some states just more likely to have a civil wars because of geography, resources, terrain, etc.? Natural resources - Provides funding for civil war - "Lootability" key idea (diamonds vs. oil) - Related to "resource curse" - Can cause fights for secession • Ex. Cabinda• Ex. Katanga a) Kimberley Process UN-sponsored process to monitor trade in "rough" or "blood" diamonds Began in 2000 after meeting in Kimberley, South Africa.- All rough diamonds crossing state borders must: • Be in a tamper-proof container• Be accompanied by certification papers that are embossed with a unique serial number. • Only be destined for other KP states -Taylor, 64, is accused by United Nations prosecutors of trading in "blood diamonds" to fund a brutal and bloody war carried out by rebels in Liberia's neighbor, Sierra Leone. Critical to their case was evidence that his staff gave Naomi Campbell --------------------------------------------------------- -international community wanted to stem the flow of international resources, certificate when buying diamond, want to make it difficult to buy blood diamond -> high profile case: Charles Taylor from Liberia goes to jail for selling blood diamonds and funding civil war
Terrorism: Political Science/Policy Debates
Are terrorists rational? - Answer yields different public policy solutions for counter-terrorism - Latest PS research: yes, terrorists are strategic and goal-oriented Should we care as much as we do? - What is the overall threat of terrorism? - Should we allocate resources to greater threats/problems? - Some of the answer probably depends on the definition... What is the optimal level of counter-terrorism given that: - Terrorism is such a rare event? - it is difficult to know how effective counter-terrorism policy is? a) Terrorists as (Politically Weak) Rational Extremists, fight on deciding who is a terrorist `statesman or terrorist
Some General Lessons from the Syrian Civil War
Civil wars frequently spill over borders Civil wars often spark neighbor-state conflicts Civil wars can diffuse quickly-Ideas/people/weapons Civil wars usually lure 3rd parties into fight CWs often lead to regional economic difficulties
Islamist
Describing a political ideology based on instituting Islamic principles and laws in government. A broad range of groups using diverse methods come under this category-groups advocate basing government and society on Islamic law., Most are nonviolent—charities and political parties. Some are violent—militias and terrorist networks., Islamist politics may lead to different foreign policies, but the more important answer is that some Islamist movements have become a transnational force shaping world order and global North-South relations in important ways.-In several countries, Islamists reject Western-oriented secular states in favor of governments more explicitly oriented to Islamic values, anti-Western, and are in some ways nationalist movements expressed through religious channels-
Ethnic groups
Ethnic conflict is quite possibly the most important source of conflict in the numerous wars now occurring throughout the world--are large groups of people who share ancestral, language, cultural, and/or religious ties and a common identity (individuals identify with the group)-conflicts between ethnic groups often have material aspects—notably over territory and government control—ethnic conflict itself stems from a dislike or hatred that members of one ethnic group systematically feel toward another ethnic group-based, intangible ones (who someone is).
Territorial Conflict: Do Economic Ties Matter?
Frederic Bastiat: "When goods do not cross borders, armies will." Do economic ties reduce the likelihood of conflict? - Kant again ("Perpetual Peace") -because more costly to for them to fight thought onset to world war one b/c with trade though there would be no war ->bc more costly for both Two arguments for why they might :- Sociological - Material interests
Trade, Interdependence, and Conflict
Interdependence: two dimensions - Sensitivity: speed and magnitude with which a change in one country is felt in another how fast and how much - Vulnerability: do you have alternative economic partners? ex: if we cut trade with china Lots of statistical evidence that trade correlates strongly w/ peace.- Problem: Could put cart before horse...maybe peace --> trade? - Is the democratic peace really a "capitalist peace"? a) 1944-near total decline of interstate war related to increase economic ties?
Terrorism: History
Jewish Zealots-Sicarii (sikarioi, "dagger men") of the 1st Century BC often described as the first terrorists "Modern" terrorism dated to the French Revolution: Robespierre's "Reign of Terror" - Edmund Burke (1795): "...thousands of those hellhounds called terrorists were let loose on people..." • Over the past 100 years...- 1890-1910:Anarchists • Origins in the early labor movement and leftist utopian movements • Targeted high-level political officials... 1901? - it has been around for a long time, Israel massacre, modern terrorism dated to the French Revolution, William McKinley -strong supporter of protective tariffs.
6.3.1 Counterterrorism
Policies to combat terrorism can be placed along a spectrum involving more or less force in confronting terrorism and terrorist organizations. On the nonviolent end of the spectrum are calls for economic development. Advocates of these programs point out that, in very poor states, people are especially vulnerable to recruitment by terrorist organizations. With no bright future ahead of them and little opportunities to better themselves, people will naturally lose hope, become angry, and undertake seemingly irrational acts because they feel they have nothing to lose-In the middle of the spectrum are policing activities, which involve efforts by domestic police, usually in cooperation with other countries' police forces, to apprehend or kill terrorists while breaking up terrorist organizations. In one famous example of effective counterterrorist policing, the government of Peru, using an elite investigative team of the national police force, arrested the leader of the Shining Path movement, which at one point controlled over 20,000 well-armed militia members and had assassinated several Peruvian political leaders.-At the other end of the counterterrorism spectrum is organized military conflict. States may undertake small- or large-scale conflicts to counter terrorist organizations. In 1998, the United States launched cruise missile strikes against a plant in Sudan believed to be producing chemical weapons for al Qaeda,, Of course, nearly every state that undertakes counterterrorism policies uses some combination of these methods
Counter-Proliferation Strategies
Prevention- stop them from making or getting weapons 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Makes IAEA the nuclear "watchdog" US-India nuclear deal (2005) Persuasion - convince state to give ip or not get them at all South Africa Former Soviet States - we will acknowledge you if you give them up ~incentives, maybe provide aid, etc Pre-emption- use of force before they even have the nuclear weapons, egis leads to invading sovereignty and illegal problems, b4 they are able to get technology Israel and Iraq (1981) Israel and Iran/North Korea (????)
Terrorism: Definitions
Root of the word hints at the problem :- "Terror" is a mental state: perception, social ideas related The point of terrorism is usually not the violence itself but the fear raised by the act. Audrey Kurth Cronin (2009): "Terrorism is intended to be a matter of perception and is thus seen differently by different observers and at different points in history." -broader political goods What about official definitions? a) many official places have different definitions, untied nation and FBI b) terrorism, 9/11, Pittsburg, oak creek (same idea as Pittsburg) - Las Vegas concert massacre not (media may have a different definition), has to have a political cause, high terrorism happening in some parts of the world b) terrorist attack kill few people and have a very low chance of being involved in one -fear to change behavior
6.2 Evolving Technologies
Technological developments have changed the nature of military force in several ways. First, the resort to force in international conflicts now has more profound costs and consequences. Great powers in particular can no longer use force to settle disputes among themselves without risking massive destruction and economic ruin- drones-The September 2001 attackers used information technology, such as encrypted Internet communications, to coordinate forces while keeping U.S. authorities in the dark. They carried out precision strikes over long distances with very small, dispersed units. As a result, 19 attackers killed nearly 3,000 people, and an expenditure of under $1 million caused tens of billions of dollars in damage.
5.2 Conflicts of Ideas
These six types of conflict are not mutually exclusive, and they overlap considerably in practice.-the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine after the 1991 Soviet breakup were complex. Ethnic Russians living in Ukraine, and ethnic Ukrainians in Russia, experienced conflict. There are also religious differences between Ukrainian and Russian forms of Christianity. In addition, the two new states had a territorial dispute over the Crimean peninsula, which Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev had transferred to Ukraine in the 1950s. The two states also had economic conflicts over trade and money after the Soviet breakup, which created new borders and currencies-in which intangible elements such as ethnic hatred, religious fervor, or ideology come into play—conflicts of ideas. These identity-based sources of international conflict today have been shaped historically by nationalism as the link between identity and internationally recognized statehood. Therefore, we will briefly review the development of nationalism before examining the three types of conflicts of ideas.
5.2.4 Religious Conflict
This is increasingly true as fundamentalist movements have gained strength in recent decades, Members of these movements organize their lives and communities around their religious beliefs; many are willing to sacrifice, kill, and die for those beliefs., In Israel, Jewish fundamentalists have used violence, including the assassination of Israel's own prime minister in 1995, to derail Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations., Fundamentalist movements challenge the values and practices of secular political organizations—those created apart from religious establishments, Jewish fundamentalists build settlements in Israeli-occupied territories and vow to cling to the land even if their government evacuates it.
5.2.5 Ideological Conflict
To a large extent, ideology is like religion: It symbolizes and intensifies conflicts between groups and states more than it causes them. Ideologies have a somewhat weaker hold on core values and absolute truth than religions do, so they pose somewhat fewer problems for the international system.-For realists, ideological differences among states do not matter much because all members of the international system pursue their national interests in the context of relatively fluid alliances. For example, the Cold War was a global ideological struggle between capitalist democracy and communism.-Sometimes even self-proclaimed ideological struggles are not really ideological. In Angola in the 1980s, the United States backed a rebel army called UNITA against a Soviet-aligned government—supposedly a struggle of democracy against Marxism., This conflict, which finally ended in 2002, really had nothing to do with ideology. It was a power struggle between two armed, ethnically based factions fighting to control Angola's oil, diamonds, and other wealth.-But ideology itself plays little role in this postrevolutionary propensity for wars: Revolutions are seldom exported to other states.
Material Conflicts: What Do We Know Today?
Trade is correlated with less conflict Democracy is correlated with less conflict Power imbalances are correlated with more conflict Contiguity factor is huge International organizations seem to have have little influence
Electronic Warfare
Use of the electromagnetic spectrum (radio waves, radar, infrared, etc.) in war, such as employing electromagnetic signals for one's own benefit while denying their use to an enemy-Strategies for cyberwar—disrupting enemy computer networks to degrade command and control, or even hacking into bank accounts electronically—may figure prominently in future wars, although they have not yet-Cyberattacks are an issue of growing importance in IR, with Chinese, Russian, and American hackers constantly probing each other's systems.-Russia has been using cyberattacks in an attempt to expand its influence for many years.-It is clear that cyberattacks, whether in the service of a direct military campaign, or as an attempt to influence electoral outcomes, are becoming an increasingly important tool of leverage in IR.
"Ancient Hatreds"
Why do civil wars occur in particular areas between certain ethnic groups? Claim: Because they always have! Popular media explanation: "they've been fighting forever..." Problems: - Overpredictsconflict - Cannotpredicttiming - National/ethnicidentityoften fluid over time - Anexcusetodonothing...?
5.2.2 Ethnic Conflict: Causes of Ethnic Hostility
Why do ethnic groups frequently dislike each other? Often there are long-standing historical conflicts over specific territories or natural resources, or over one ethnic group's economic exploitation or political domination of another., The ethnic group is a kind of extended kinship group—a group of related individuals sharing some ancestors. Even when kinship relations are not very close, a group identity makes a person act as though the other members of the ethnic group were family, ex:African American men who call each other "brother" express group identity as kinship. Likewise, Jews around the world treat each other as family,-Ethnocentrism-dehumanization-In-group biases are far stronger when the other group looks different, speaks a different language, or worships in a different way (or all three).-Experience in Western Europe shows that over time, education can overcome ethnic animosities between traditionally hostile nations, such as France and Germany.,In a continent-wide project, new textbooks that gave a more objective and fair rendition were created-The existence of a threat from an out-group promotes the cohesion of an in-group, thereby creating a somewhat self-reinforcing process of ethnic division. However, ethnocentrism also often causes members of a group to view themselves as disunited (because they see their own divisions up close) and the out-group as monolithic (because they see it only from the outside)., Arab Palestinians see themselves as fragmented into factions and weakened by divisions among the Arab states, while "the Israelis" appear monolithic to them.
Nationalism and War
Why does some nationalism become violent? Under what conditions will nationalism boil over into internal and/or external conflicts? Why do we care? a) so much more intrastate conflict now then anything else
Islam
a broad and diverse world religion whose divergent populations include sunni muslims, Shi'ite muslims, and many smaller branches and sects from Nigeria to Indonesia, centered in the Middle East and South Asia- muslims practice it
genocide
an intentional and systemic attempt to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part. It was confirmed as a crime under international law by the UN Genocide Convention (1948)-systematic extermination of ethnic or religious groups in whole or in part—to try to destroy scapegoated groups or political rivals. ex: systematic extermination of ethnic or religious groups in whole or in part—to try to destroy scapegoated groups or political rivals.
Drones
another term for unmanned aerial vechiles; these small flying vechiles, which can be armed or unarmed , are increasingly used in combat and reconnaissance operations: -Drones have been used for many years and in many wars, including the Vietnam War in the 1970s,In addition to America's hundreds of armed drones, other countries have been rapidly acquiring them. Over 30 countries-Many countries also use nonlethal drones in the service of war fighting, usually for intelligence gathering-Even businesses and private citizens use drones in ways that can affect international relations (IR)-The expanded use of military drones, especially attack drones, has created several controversies in recent years. First, there is concern that the technology will spread quickly, including to states or groups that could use drones to attack civilians, Second, the use of armed drones to kill individuals is questioned under international law. The laws of war require states to limit hostilities to those geographic areas where there are active conflicts-It is no surprise that the use of drones, especially in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations, has increased. The drones offer militaries, but especially political leaders, the chance to strike at an enemy from far away without risking the lives of their countries' own troops.
Secular
created apart from religious establishments and which there is a high degree of separation between religious and political organizations
5.2.2 Ethnic Conflict
ethnic groups-Ethnic groups often form the basis for nationalist sentiments, locations where millions of members of a single ethnic group live as the majority population in their ancestors' land, they usually think of themselves as a nation.-Territorial control is closely tied to the aspirations of ethnic groups for statehood, part of an ethnic group controlling a state and another part living as a minority within another state controlled by a rival ethnic group. Frequently the minority group members suffer discrimination in the other state, and the "home" state tries to rescue or avenge them.-Other ethnic groups lack any home state. Kurds share a culture, and many of them aspire to create a state of Kurdistan. But Kurds reside in four states-Ethnic conflicts often create pressures to redraw borders by force. When ethnic populations are minorities in territories controlled by rival ethnic groups, they may even be driven from their land or (in rare cases) systematically exterminated. By driving out the minority ethnic group, a majority group can assemble a more unified, more contiguous, and larger territory for its nation-state, as ethnic Serbs tried to do through ethnic cleansing (a term they invented) after the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s-Outside states often worry about the fate of "their people" living as minorities in neighboring states.
5.2.3 Genocide
holocaust,German officials faced justice in the Nuremberg Tribunal after World War II, pledges of world leaders after that experience to "never again"-In 1994, in Rwanda, where the Hutu group is the majority and the Tutsi group the minority, a Hutu-nationalist government carried out the most deadly genocide of recent decades.-It might be tempting to view Hutu-Tutsi hatred as part of a pattern of age-old ethnic hatreds that cropped up in the post-Cold War era, especially in "backward" areas such as Africa, However, explaining genocide as a result of backwardness does not work well because one of the world's most civilized, "advanced" states, Germany, exterminated its Jews even more efficiently than Rwanda-Rwandan genocide as pathological—a deviation from both rationality and social norms. In-group biases based on fairly arbitrary group characteristics become amplified by a perceived threat from an out-group, and exaggerated by history, myth, and propaganda (including schooling)., The international community's ineffective response to the mass murders in Darfur, like that in Rwanda in 1994, shows the limited reach of international norms in today's state-based international system. In cases of both genocide and less extreme scapegoating, ethnic hatreds do not merely bubble up naturally. Rather, politicians provoke and channel hatred to strengthen their own power-
Nationalism
identification with, and devotion to, the interests of one's nation. It usually involves a large group of people who share a national identity and often a language, culture, or ancestry. -A nation is a population that shares an identity, usually including a language and culture. But nationality is a difficult concept to define precisely. To some degree, the extension of political control over large territories
5.2.1 Nationalism
nationalism- The principle of self-determination implies that people who identify as a nation should have the right to form a state and exercise sovereignty over their affairs, Self-determination does not give groups the right to change international borders,When the borders of (perceived) nations do not match those of states, conflicts almost inevitably arise, ex: Israel-Palestine-World War II, it was nationalism and patriotism (not communism) that rallied the Soviet people in order to sacrifice by the millions to turn back Germany's invasion.-In the past 70 years, nations by the dozens have gained independence and statehood. Jews worked persistently in the first half of the twentieth century to create the state of Israel, and Palestinians aspired in the second half to create a Palestinian state.,The continuing influence of nationalism in today's world is evident. It affects several of the main types of conflict that occupy the rest of this chapter.
dehumanization
stigmatization of enemies as subhuman or nonhuman, leading frequently to widespread violence-includes the common use of animal names—pigs, dogs, and so forth—for members of the out-group. U.S. propaganda in World War II depicted Japanese people as apes. Especially in wartime, dehumanization can be extreme.
Ethnocentrism
the tendency to see one's own group (in-group) in favorable terms and an out-group in unfavorable terms-or in-group bias, is the tendency to see one's own group in favorable terms and an out-group in unfavorable terms.-the ties that bind ethnic groups together, and divide them from other groups, are based on the identity principle-No minimum criterion,needed to evoke the group identity process, including in-group bias.
stealth technology
the use of special radar-absorbent materials and unusual shapes in the design of aircraft, missiles, and ships to scatter enemy radar-Military historians refer to a period of rapid change in the conduct of war as a "revolution in military affairs." These periods usually combine innovative applications of new technology with changes in military doctrine, organization, or operations.
State-sponsored terrorism
the use of terrorist groups by states, usually under control of a state's intelligence agency, to achieve political aims-refers to the use of terrorist groups by states—usually under control of the state's intelligence agency—to achieve political aims.-ex:n 1988, a bomb scattered pieces of Pan Am flight 103 over the Scottish countryside. Combing the fields for debris, investigators found fragments of a tape recorder that had contained a sophisticated plastic explosive bomb. The U.S. and British governments identified the Libyan intelligence agents responsible
Nationalism & War
~when nationalism leads to war~ Conflicts over nations, ethnic, or religious groups come in many forms Justifications for nationalism can lead to violence - Ex. French Revolution Desire to have (or control) an independent nation- state can promote violence - Ex. civil wars a) famous civil wars-brad and Angelina, also Syrian etc
Counter-Proliferation efforts
• Key developments - Democratization of disarmament politics (beyond nuclear powers) - Increasing role of civil society groups (ICAN, 450 NGOs) - Adoption of new norms • "long game" strategy for opponents of nuclear weapons? - Signed by 122 states; not yet in force (needs 50 ratifications)
When Will "Bad" Nationalism Emerge and Lead to Civil War?
• Democratization- Opening competition / history of elections Weak administrative institutions- Post-colonial societies are weak in this regard Past atrocities- Is there fodder for "out-group" designation? Social factors: e.g., myth making Diaspora politics- Effects of colonization- Irredentism/cross-border support Power balance: Security Dilemma- Does either side have significant capabilities? Societal cleavages...- What divisions are salient? a) Cleavages: societal divisions (race, religion, language, wealth, etc.) Cross-cutting cleavages: members of one cleavage overlap with another; creates civility/connections that enable stable politics to keep working
Terrorism
• Difficult to define • An old problem • Many causes • Hard to solve... -old problems, hard to define, many causes, not a new problem has been around for a long time, hard to solve
