3344 CHAP 9

Select the forecast or method that is rooted in the assumption future outcomes will be an extrapolation of previous observations. a. Judgmental forecasting b. The Delphi method c. The Cooke method d. Statistical forecasting

D

What technique is used to predict future demands when historical data is unavailable? a. Judgmental forecasting b. Exponential smoothing c. Statistical forecasting d. Regression analysis

A

When the time series in an exponential smoothing model produces a negative trend, the _______. a. forecast will overshoot the actual values b. mean square error will be negative c. future forecasts will rely solely upon expertise of people in developing forecasts d. value of smoothing constant will either be less than zero or greater than one

A

Which method is used in the construction of a statistical model that establishes a relationship between one or more independent, numeric variables and one dependent, numeric variable? a. Regression analysis b. The Delphi method c. Judgmental forecasting d. The Cooke method

A

With data patterns in a time series in mind, which term describes an explainable, one-time variation? a. Irregular variation b. Cyclical variation c. Random variation d. Seasonal variation

A

Which of the options has the most utility for allocating budgets among divisions, scheduling jobs and resources, and planning workforce levels? a. Short-range forecasts b. Intermediate-range forecasts c. Make-to-order operations d. Make-to-stock operations

B

A typical approach used to collect data for judgmental forecasts is _______. a. regression analysis b. a survey questionnaire c. a moving average model d. single exponential smoothing

B

Choose the forecasting technique used for forecasting the time series value in a subsequent period by employing a weighted average of previous time-series values. a. A grassroots forecast b. Single exponential smoothing c. A moving average forecast d. Regression analysis

B

Choose the most accurate statement regarding simple exponential smoothing. Assume the time series is relatively stable with minimal random variability. a. Typical values for the smoothing constant are in the range of 1 to 1.5. b. Values of the smoothing constant larger than 0.5 place more emphasis on recent data. c. Values of the smoothing constant smaller than 0.1 allow a forecast to react faster to changing conditions. d. Exponential smoothing models completely forget past data if the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1.

B

For a time series, its systematic pattern of decline or growth is characterized as its _______. a. forecast error b. trend c. planning horizon d. bias

B

Harry, an executive manager at YingYang Inc., plotted the company's energy costs of $1 billion over the last 10 years. His chart implied the energy costs were increasing linearly and predictably. Further, the energy costs were dependent on time by the function, Y t = 3 + 5t. Y t represents the yearly energy cost in year t. Based on this linear equation, what is the value of the intercept that best fits the time series. a. 1 b. 3 c. 10 d. 5

B

Of the choices provided, which can be defined as repeatable periods of ups and downs over relatively short periods of time, as it pertains to data patterns and variations in a time series? a. Cyclical patterns b. Seasonal patterns c. Irregular variations d. Random variations

B

A tracking signal offers the means to monitor a forecast by numerically representing _______. a. throughput b. validity c. bias d. probability

C

As it pertains to forecasting, _______ references a forecast's tendency to be larger or smaller than the actual values of a time series on a consistent basis. a. fad b. variability c. bias d. trend

C

Which of the following are instrumental in the planning of production schedules and the assignment of workers to jobs by operations managers? a. Intermediate-range forecasts b. Credit scorecards c. Short-range forecasts d. Balanced scorecards

C

Which of the options provided are associated with the effective planning of facility expansion? a. Make-to-order operations b. Intermediate-range forecasts c. Long-range forecasts d. Make-to-stock operations

C

With time series data patterns in mind, which type of pattern can be described as regular upturns and downturns in a data series which occur over long periods of time? a. Parallel patterns b. Seasonal patterns c. Cyclical patterns d. Orthographic patterns

C

When are moving average (MA) methods most effective? a. There is a major trend in a time series. b. A long planning horizon is involved. c. A cyclical pattern is observed in a time series. d. Demand is relatively stable and consistent.

D

Which term describes the value achieved by subtracting the forecast value from the observed value in a time series? a. Forecast consumption b. Forecast precision c. Forecast density d. Forecast error

D