Arctic In the Anthropocene 2
stakeholders in decision of who owns the Arctic
- socioeconomic stakeholders: -oil companies (economic benefits, access disadvantages to extract oil- hard to there with melting permafrost) -Arctic governments (boundary benefits, more responsible for oil spills) -Scientists (more access to new places to discover) -indigenous people (tourism and economic benefits, unsustainable actions of others)
Action timeline for the Pacific Walrus
-2008: the center filed a petition seeking ESA protection for the Pacific walrus -2011: the service announced that listing the pacific walrus was warranted but preceded, declaring the walrus deserving of protection but delaying that protection indefinitely by putting the mammal on the candidate list -2017: 25 species including the Pacific Walrus were denied endangered protection by Trump administration (this revised an obama decision that placed the walrus as deserving protection) -2017: the center filed a formal notice of intent to sue the Trump administration for denying the Pacific walrus protection under the ESA
Hindcasting
-A method of testing a mathematical model by using data from a past event -a statistical calculation determining probable past conditions -similar to predicting the future but backwards -a model that is a numerical recipe describing the real world -hindcasting is important because we need to understand the past to be able to predict the future -hindcasting is a way to trust climate model predictions of the future
The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change (1997)
-An agreement to reduce worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases. -targets the first commitment period -covered emissions of the 6 main greenhouse gases including: -carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride
watershed
-An ecosystem where all water runoff drains into a single body of water -the region or area drained by a river or stream
discharge
-An outflow of water from a stream, pipe, groundwater aquifer, or watershed; the opposite of recharge -volume of water passing a point per unit time -discharge values are in units of km3/yr
Six working groups of the Arctic Council
-Arctic Contaminants Action Program (ACAP) -Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) -Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) -Emergency, Preventino, Preparedness and Response (EPPR) -Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) -Sustainable Development Working Group (SDWG)
Arctic Indigenous Peoples diversity and language
-Arctic indigenous people form a very diverse group with regard to language culture and traditions -7 different language families
Biodiversity of Arctic tundra
-Arctic tundra is not very diverse -global biodiversity is much greater -lower biodiversity means they are more susceptible to disease because if one species is effected then the entire area is effected because they are all the same species and it can spread
Vegetation distribution in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions
-Arctic vegetation is less diverse compared to lower latitudes -because the conditions are more harsh -but there is still a wide range of plant adaptations with unique adaptations to harsh environments
warming potential of greenhouse gases
-CO2 is more highly concentrated in the atmosphere (280 ppm) -recent tropospheric concentration is highest -atmospheric lifetime is 100-300 years -increased radiative forcing is 1.94 W/m2 -in comparison the concentration of methane is only (1.83 ppm)
sea level rise
-Causes erosion of shorelines and rainforests, flooding of wetlands that house freshwater ecosystems. Caused by global climate changes that is melting sea ice -one result of global climate change, due to melting glaciers and ice caps -global sea level rose about 16cm in the last century -the rate of sea level rise is double last century rate
Northward shifting treeline
-Climate change is projected to cause vegetation shifts because rising temperature favor taller, dense vegetation -this will thus promote the expansion of forests into the arctic tundra and the tundra into polar deserts
Global hydrological cycle
-Describes the continuous movement of water on, above, and below the surface of the earth (No beginning or end), individual water molecules can come and go -water evaporates from the ocean, clouds drift over land, precipitation falls on land, precipitation infiltrates into the soil (plant roots take up the soil water and bring it back to environment), or precipitation runoff into stream or lakes that go back to the ocean
heat transformation and transfer
-Earth has liquid, solid and gaseous phases of water -as water is transformed from solid to liquid phase or liquid to gas, there is a large amount of energy involved
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
-Four RCPs were selected and defined by their total radiative forcing (cumulative measure of human emissions of GHGs from all sources expressed in Watts per square meter) pathway and level by 2100 -The RCPs were chosen to represent a broad range of climate outcomes, based on a literature review, and are neither forecasts nor policy recommendation -the four RCPS include: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 -changing emissions lead to changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations which leads to changing future radiative forcing -CO2 is used as input for most model simulations
Freeze-thaw and hydrologic cycling
-Freeze-thaw controls hydrological cycling due to the abrupt seasonal changes -because of this it also controls available nutrients to arctic plants -flux of greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere -and the export of carbon and nutrients to rivers and seas
general atmospheric circulation
-Global wind pattern modified by continental masses, mountain ranges, seasons, Coriolis effect -warm/hot air rises in the tropics where the air is moist, it moves north or south, then descends and returns in the equatorial Hadley cells -rising air there is warm moist air and high precipitation -sinking air there is cool dry air and low precipitation -Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rising air and abundant precipitation -High pressure at the poles -Low pressure at the equator
subsistence resource
-In the Arctic, reindeer, caribou, and sea mammals have been and continue to be the most important substance resources for Arctic indigenous peoples
Arctic Marine Food Web
-a decline in sea ice is likely to lead from a benthic dominated Arctic ecosystem to a pelagic dominated ecosystem -as climate warms, the release of ice algae during ice melt would be earlier and smaller -zooplankton could graze almost everything and little would be left to sink to the sediment -phytoplankton could be more available and the zooplankton would graze more of it -so less particulate matter would be exported to benthic communities -benthic dominated ecosystems would shift to pelagic-dominated ecosystems
Hydrograph
-a graph which shows the the discharge of a river, related to rainfall, over a period of time -a graph of the water level or rate of flow of a body of water (discharge) as a function of time
subsurface stormflow
-a runoff producing mechanism operating in most upland terrains -in a humid environment and steep terrain with conductive soils, subsurface stormflow may be the main mechanism of storm runoff generation -there is subsurface stormflow until infiltration capacity is exceeded then overland flow occurs
impacts of shrubification on caribou populations
-a warmer climate is related to diminishing sea ice which has increased the plant biomass on the summer pasture this has lead to a decline in the caribou population -caribou are accustomed to low plant biomass which is changing to a landscape covered in non edible shrubs -because of this caribou herds are diminishing
Northwest Passage
-a water route between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans along the northern coast of North America -increased access
discharge vs specific discharge
-different units -discharge (volume per unit time km3/yr) -specific discharge is normalized by watershed areas (volume per unit time per area km3/year/km2 -discharge for a smaller area
direct impacts of humans on Arctic wildlife
-increased trash in the oceans are killing marine wildlife -proposed offshore seismic, leasing, and drilling in the Arctic Ocean -increased shipping routes, natural resource extraction in the Arctic
stakeholders in critical habitat designations of the Arctic species
-indigenous (might be their land that is reserved now) -oil and gas companies: (disadvantage, they won't be allowed to use natural resources in the area) -prey species: increased (advantage they excel with no predators) -researchers -fishing industry -environmental NGOs (get more publicity and funding)
Infant mortality rates in the Arctic
-infant mortality is a common health and human livelihood indicator -it is generally higher among indigenous peoples than the average populations -it can be used as an indicator on the level of health -higher in indigenous peoples because of their diet of mostly meat
A 5 deg.C Arctic in a 2deg.C World
-it is clear that the Arctic already exceeds 2 degrees Celsius warming -the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world
why don't people believe in climate science?
-its less about denying climate change is real and more about denying the fact that its human induced and its impacts are harmful to humans -also that climate change is effecting us right now (not just a future worry) -4 out of 10 Americans aren't convinced -those who do believe in climate change do not do anything about it -facts don't always work -we are dealing with the threats of today -issues that really grab our attention involve PAIN -Personal, Abrupt, Immoral, Now -rational and emotional brian -when we are faced with uncertain threats in the near future, our brains will think of all kinds of excuses for us not to act on them today
permafrost thaw in lakes
-lakes are disappearing with climate warming and permafrost thaw -in the summer, ice melts across much of the Arctic forming thousands of lakes -ender each lake is a layer of permafrost (permanently frozen ground) -when permafrost melts, the water from these lakes are seeping into the ground, causing the lakes to decrease -permafrost dictates pathways of surface and groundwater because it holds water shed up because the surface water cant penetrate into the ground due to ozen soil
residence times
-longest to shortest residence times -icecaps/glaciers/permafrost (1,000-10,000 yrs), groundwater (2 weeks-10,000 yrs), oceans (4,000 yrs), lakes and reservoirs (10 years), swamps (1-10 yrs), soil moisture (2 weeks-1 year), river channel (2 weeks), atmospheric water (1.5 week), biospheric water (1 week)
the effects of chemical contamination on subsistence activities
-many POPs (persistent organic pollutants) and heavy metals from emissions further south are accumulated in Arctic food chains and ultimately in indigenous people -fear of these compounds sometimes results in abandonment of traditional foods -this has lead to more unhealthy food being consumed by indigenous -but most indigenous peoples in smaller communities still supply a large share of their household foods from natural resources
semi-evergreen
-many herbaceous species are semi-evergreen -this means the leaves produced in one summer remain green and functional until they are replaced the following year -photosynthesis will resume in the spring as soon as light levels are suitable
Arctic Ocean Watershed
-many watersheds that all lead to a specific output point in the Arctic ocean -river discharge is greatest coming from the Russian watershed (3127 km3/yr) USA, Canada, and Scandinavia watersheds combined have less discharge into the Arctic ocean (1187km3/yr)
melting and evaporation
-melting is solid to liquid -evaporation is liquid to gas -absorbs latent heat from the environment
storage organs
-most plants develop thick roots which serve as storage organs -most tundra species have adjusted to their severe and variable environments by diverting a large proportion of their resources into underground storage
Natural vs Anthropogenic climate drivers
-much more anthropogenic climate drivers - only one natural climate driver (the solar irradiance)
Present-day Boreal Forest (Taiga) distribution
-northern forests are dominated by coniferous trees such as spruce, fir, pine -there is low species diversity
movement of chemical contamination
-northern plants and animals are exposed to contaminants that accumulate in the North -pollutants move from soil and water into plants and from there into animals -the carnivorous diet of humans in the Arctic involves the consumption of species high up in the food chain -as a result they have a higher chance of being poised
Major earth reservoirs
-ocean -atmosphere -continents
distribution of Earth's water
-of all the Earth's water, saline/ocean water is 97% and freshwater is only 3% -Freshwater: -glaciers and icecaps store (68.7%) -groundwater store (30.1%) -other/atmosphere, soil moisture (0.9%) -surface water (0.3%) -Surface water: -lakes store (87%) -swamps (11%) -rivers (2%)
Indigenous settlements in the Arctic
-of some 370 settlements in the tundra regions of the circumpolar Arctic, more than 80% are located on the coast -the main exception is Siberia where most major settlements occur along Rivers -several thousand settlements are located in the forests, following reindeer and caribou -
Energy and phases of water
-once water melts, more energy goes into warming the liquid rather than being used in the latent heat of melting
Arctic rivers are unique compared to others
-snow cover is extremely important in resulting discharge patterns (can make up to 80% of the annual discharge) -permafrost is also important because it doesn't allow infiltration so there is more runoff -rivers characterized by very low winter runoff, high spring flow rates driven by snowmelt
Snowmelt contribution to runoff (5)
-snowmelt contributes up to 80% of the annual runoff in regions with a continental climate and continuous permafrost -like in northern parts of central and eastern Siberia -snowmelt contributes about 50% of the annual runoff in northern Europe and northeastern Canada
hydrograph peak flows
-snowmelt is usually the dominant hydrologic event of the year in watersheds dominated by snow and ice -in arctic and subarctic watersheds the annual water balance is quantified by monitoring the runoff from snowmelt -the high peaks in a hydrograph are usually in the spring months because this is the time when temperatures increase and snowmelt contributes to the rivers which increases the discharge
how to communicate climate change science to the general public
-start with common values, find a common ground (who are you talking to and what do they believe in) -have an open mind and be willing to ask people questions about what they think (always ask why they think that and be open to understanding their opinion) -make an analogy to help people to understand -give basic scientific understanding with some scientific facts -make it a moral issue (its unfair for future generations)
Adaptations of Arctic Plants
-storage organs, prostate nature, height of arctic plants, deeply pigmented species, greenhouse-like spaces, semi-evergreen, heliotropic, dispersal of seeds
Krummholz
-stunted windblown trees growing near the tree line on mountains -Krummholz is a growth form of trees at locations of great environmental stress -including conditions of high wind -the Krummholz line is the upper most limit in latitude and elevation that trees in Krummholz form exist
sublimation and deposition
-sublimation is a change directly from the solid to the gaseous state without becoming liquid (absorbes latent heat) -deposition is a gas to a solid (releases latent heat)
major Arctic rivers
-the Arctic Ocean is only 1% of the total global ocean volume -but it receives 11% of global river discharge (also gets 11% of river transported organic matter -most land dominated ocean in the world
Arctic Indigenous Peoples
-the arctic region is home to some 4 million people -10% of them are indigenous peoples whose traditional way of life depends directly on the health of the Arctic environment -living as herders, hunters, and gatherers, arctic indigenous people have developed lifestyles that are inextricably linked to their surroundings -these peoples have lived sustainably in the Arctic for thousands of years and are now facing massive environmental change
RCP 2.6
-the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2100 = 490 ppm -the pathway is peak and decline -temp anomaly = 1.5 degrees C
RCP 4.5
-the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2100 = 650 ppm -the pathway is stabilization without overshoot -temp anomaly = 2.4 degrees C
RCP 6
-the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2100 = 850 ppm -the pathway is stabilization without overshoot -temp anomaly = 3.0 degrees C
Perennials
-the brief period of vegetation growth and low temperatures is unfavorable for annuals -perennials (plants that live more than 2 years) are more common -there is not enough time for annual plants to germinate, mature, and set seed during the short growing season
change in storage
-the change in storage can be a function of: -groundwater -soil moisture -lakes and wetlands -snowpack -permafrost
Precipitation
-the change of atmospheric water vapor to liquid rain or solid snow
recent global climate change vs recent Arctic climate change
-the climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in the mid-latitudes -this is shown by increasing temps, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access -temp rises (as a response to greenhouse gases) are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with albedo, ocean and land heat storage -likely that the summer Arctic will become near sea ice free before the year 2050
Degree of seasonality (4)
-the degree of seasonality is dependent on: -climate conditions -land cover (vegetation) -permafrost extent -level of natural and artificial runoff regulation (ice jams, dams)
Radiative forcing (climate forcing)
-the difference of insolation (sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space -the driving factor in climate change -watts per meter squared -this is a direct measure of how much the Earth's energy budget is out of balance
evaporation
-the exchange of water from a liquid to a vapor
Fungus
-the fungus on the roots of conifers may give the boreal trees an advantage in obtaining nutrients from the raw humas of boreal soils
shrinking ice sheets
-the greenland and antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass -Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic km of ice per year between 2002-226 -Antarctic lost about 152 cubic km of ice between 2002-2005
Moral Tribalism
-the group of people that one associates with -used to be mostly based on religion -now has to do with political and moral beliefs -we spend time with people that share the same values as us -individuals lives will go better if their perceptions of societal risk conform with those of their "group" -people acquire their scientific knowledge by consulting others who share their values -if you are one of us you will believe this
projected changes in growing season length
-the growing season is projected to be much longer with increased temperatures
Subsistence Activities
-the hunting and gathering for the sole purpose of providing for yourself and your family (hunting for survival) -the hunting, fishing, and gathering of local foods fr consumption, sharing, and trade or barter -e.g. caribou, whales, seals, walrus, marine birds, waterfowl, eggs, fruit (but indigenous have a largely carnivorous diet)
Keeling curve
-the keeling curve is a graph that plots the ongoing change in concentrations of CO2 in earths atmosphere since 1958 -based on continuous measurements from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii
precipitation into streams (runoff pathway)
-the key is infiltration capacity of soil -soil absorbs water, causing subsurface storm flow delivery to streams -if infiltration capacity is exceeding, overland flow occurs -water flows into rivers by runoff from overland flow -overland flow to
Endangered Species Act 5 Factor Threat Analysis
1) The present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of habitat or range 2) over utilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes 3) Disease or predation 4) Inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms 5) Other natural or manmade factors affecting continued existence
Indigenous Peoples In the Arctic
how they are effected
Arctic Climate Science Communication
how we communicate climate change to the public
River discharge
discharge=volume of water passing a point per unit time Q = velocity x area Q = velocity x width x depth
snow cover and discharge
-snow cover is a large determinant and contributor of river discharge
environmental impacts on indigenous subsistence activities?
(1) climate change: changing when, where, or how hunting and fishing takes place (2) chemical contamination
Proposal to list polar bear as threatened under the ESA
(a) the primary threat to polar bears is the decrease of sea ice coverage (b) The polar bear was petitioned to be listed as a threatened species (species likely to become endangered in the foreseeable future) (c) requires the federal government to designate critical habitat (d) the proposed rule to list the polar bear as threatened did not initially include a proposal for designating critical habitat
critical habitat
(i) specific areas within the geographical area occupied by the species at the time of listing if they contain physical or biological features essential to conservation and those features may require special management considerations or protection (ii) specific areas outside the geographical area occupied by the species if the agency determines that the area itself is essential for conservation -a critical habitat designation does not set up a presence or refuge -federal agencies that undertake, fund, or permit activities that may affect the critical habitat have to consult with a service to make sure actions don't destroy or modify the area
TEK Inuit Observations of Environmental Change
-Indigenous people provide more than just local knowledge -they provide a different way of understanding relationships -this comes from ancestral teachings that emphasized living as an interdependent part of the surroundings -in many ways their methods for assessing their environment are consistent with the approach used by scientists around the world (the scientific process_ -based on the knowledge passed down from generations, indigenous peoples are aware when their environment begins to change -using their recorded and analyzed observations, they propose explanations for what is happening -because indigenous peoples observe subtleties not normally detected by advanced monitoring equipment their pool of evidence may differ from the stuff gathered by scientists
Major rivers ranked by discharge
-Ob (high drainage area) -Mackenzie (high value of length) -Yenisel (high value of annual total discharge
Paris agreement under Obama administration
-President Obama signed and formally joined the Paris deal in 2016 -arguing that senate's ratification was not required because Paris was not a formal treaty -as a result, the US will continue to be part of the agreement until November 5, 2020 (this is also the first data President Trump can formally withdraw) -this coincides with the day after the next presidential election
drainage basin or watersheds
-Q is determined for specific drainage basins or watersheds at a given point on the river/stream -it is a function of P - ET + chngeinS over the entire watershed
United Nations REDD Program
-Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation -we want to convert the vegetation type back to the native grassland by managing an area -plant trees in lower latitude rather than the Arctic -plant trees near coastline to help with erosion -DO NOT plant trees in the Arctic because the high albedo of snow cover (which is not the case with trees) is more effective in sequestering carbon than the planting of trees -with more trees in the Arctic there is a shift to a low albedo so more light is absorbed which further enhances increased warming
Northern runoff during winter
-Rivers in most eastern Siberia and northern Canada that have drainage areas smaller than 10^5 km2 -most of them flow through the continuous permafrost zone and have very little to no runoff in the winter -this is because the supply of groundwater is so low because the permafrost is solid and holds no liquid water
TEK and Arctic climate change
-TEK is critical to our understanding of the impacts of climate change in the Arctic -Indigenous poepie provide more than just basic knowledge -they provide a different way of understanding relationships -this comes from ancestral teachings that emphasized living as an interdependent part of the surroundings
latent heat of vaporization
-The amount of energy required to change 1KG of a substance from a solid to a liquid -calories are absorbed turing water into water vapor
residence time
-The average time a given particle will stay in a given system -residence time is different for each greenhouse gas -atmospheric residence time is 8 days
residence time
-The average time a given particle, molecule, or atom will stay in a given system -period of time groundwater remains in an aquifer or period of time a pollutant stays in the atmosphere Residence time = reservoir/flux
Greening of the Arctic
-The northern reaches of North America are getting greener -with a changing climate, almost 1/3 of the land cover (much of Arctic tundra) is looking more like a landscape from a warmer climate
Political Milestones for the Polar Bear
-US secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthrone speaks (May 14, 2008) -he announced that the polar bear would be listed as threatened under the ESA (also announced a declaration that the decision would not affect US climate policy, also said he would implement a new rule allowing the US t continue to develop natural resources in the arctic) -Critical habitat for the polar bear was established (Fed 29, 2016) -as a result of a partial settlement of litigation brought by the center and allies against the department of the interior, more than 187,000 square miles along the north coast of Alaska were designated as polar bear critical habitat
Who owns the Arctic?
-Under international convention, the UN convention on the law of the sea, a state can claim a 200 nautical mile zone, and beyond that up to 150 nautical miles of rights on sea beds- to clot the natural capital proved by that land -in 2007, Russia planted a flag at the North Pole (bottom of the ocean) -territorial claims of countries in the Arctic are being spared by the presence of large caches of oil and natural gas, melting ice and dwindling energy reserves in other regions
National contributions to observed global warming
-United states, China, Russia, Brazil, India, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Indonesia, Canada, Japan, Mexico -countries that have caused disproportionately more global warming than their area would suggest include US, Germany, UK -The US and Europe have cased more global warming per billion people -the top 20 contributors to global temperature change
Paris Agreement
-aka Paris climate accord or Paris climate agreement -Most recent global agreement on climate change was result of COP 21 in Paris -This is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) -it deals with greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020 -as of October 2017: 195 UNFCCC members have signed the agreement and 169 have become party to it -the agreement aims to respond to the global climate change threat by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels -also attempts to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees celsius
global temperature rise
-all three major global surface temperate reconstructions show that earth has warmed since 1880 -most of this warming has occurred since 1970s -the 20 warmest years have occurred since 1981 -all 10 of the warmest years have occurred in the past 10 years
Northern Sea Route
-an ice-free channel along Siberia's northern coast that will grow in importance given sustained global warming -increased access to shorter shipping routes and natural resources -species more vulnerable to direct human impacts (human presence)
growth forms of arctic plants to harsh conditions
-approximately 1,700 species of plants live on the Arctic tundra -these plants include dwarf shrubs, herbs, grasses, mosses, and lichens -they live low to the ground and have shallow roots
where is the political arctic?
-areas under contention or not yet part of any country's territory
The Arctic's Last Ice
-as climate warms, sea ice disappears -every summer the amount of remaining sea ice gets smaller -summer sea ice is vitally important to a whole range of animals from tiny shrimp to bowhead whales and local people -the last ice refers to one stretch of sea ice along the northern coasts of Canada and Greenland -(it is projected to remain when all other large areas of summer sea ice are gone)
why is this a new issue?
-as ice melts there is more access to the Arctic -before the resources of the Arctic were not available -now there is a territorial fight -now there is access to we can fight over who's it is
connections between sea ice decline and a greening Arctic
-as sea ice declines, the albedo is lower, so more incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the darker surfaces of the ocean water -this leads back to further increasing temperatures -as temperatures rise, the tree-line and Arctic boundary is moving northward because the growing season is extended
Hydrologic residence times
-atmosphere (8 days) -continents (400 yrs) most of it is groundwater, surface water residence time is only 2-6 months -oceans (2600 yrs)
Arctic hydrology and freshwater systems
-basic hydrology -arctic hydrology
Bioaccumulation
-bioaccumulation occurs within a trophic level and is the increase in concentration of a substance in an individuals tissue due to the uptake from food and sediments -the process by which a contaminant accumulates in the tissues of an individual organism -certain chemicals in food eaten by a fish tend to accumulate in its liver and other tissues -the chemicals are taken in faster than the individual can get rid of them -PCBS are stored in fat -Cadmium is stored in the kidneys -Mercury is stored in the liver
declining Arctic sea ice
-both extent nd thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades
RCP 8.5
-business as usual -the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2100 = 1370 ppm -the pathway is rising -temp anomaly = 4.9 degrees C
Arctic Tundra and Boreal Forest Ecosystems
-changes in the Arctic forest ecosystems due to warming climate
characteristics of greenhouse gases that determine climate impacts
-concentration -residence time -relatie global warming efficiency
freezing and condensation
-condensation is gas to liquid -freezing is liquid to solid -releases latent heat to the environment
negative forcing
-cools the surface -is an externally applied reduction in the net inflow -the leading negative forcing is aerosols -although there are both positive and negatives adding greenhouse gases to the environment will do more harm than adding aerosols which will do less harm
runoff pathways
-describe the means by which water goes from precipitation to stream water
Hydrological cycle
-describes the storage and transfer of water on Earth -stored in the ocean, atmosphere, or continents -the water stored in reservoirs moves from reservoir to reservoir -this movement is a flux (volume of water moving as a function of time
Conferences of the Parties (COP)
-different conferences of the UNFCCC from 1995 to 2018 -1997 was the 3rd COP The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change -2015 was the 21st COP Paris, France
terrestrial hydrology in the Arctic
-differs substantially from hydrology at lower latitudes in many ways: -great contrasts occur seasonally (more liquid water in the summer and more solid water in the winter) -extensive and long-lasting snow cover insulates the ground and reflects solar energy -additional ways that terrestrial hydrology in the Arctic differs from hydrology at lower latitudes: 3-7 -rivers flowing into the Arctic ocean are characterized by very low winter runoff, high spring flow rates driven by snowmelt, and rain-induced floods in the summer and autumn -the degree of seasonality depends on climate conditions
US polls on climate change
-estimated that 70% of adults think global warming is happening -estimated that 57% of US adults believe most scientists think that global warming is happening -estimated that 49% of US adults think global warming is mostly caused by human activities -65% of people think climate change will harm future generations -only 38% of people think climate change will harm them personally
evergreen vs deciduous trees
-evergreen trees: keep their foliage throughout the year -they can survive with low soil nutrients -deciduous trees shed their leaves seasonally
heliotropic (act as parabolic reflectors)
-flower temperatures can be as much as 10 degrees Celsius warmer than surrounding air -this provides further incentive for pollinating insects -parabolic shape allows them to attract sun
dispersal of seeds
-for arctic plants, seeds are mainly dispersed through wind -their journey often end at the base of a cliff or some other obstruction where snow and debris have accumulated -this make favorable sites for plants to grow
freshwater transport to the Arctic oceans
-freshwater input into the Arctic ocean is important for: -ocean circulation -sea ice formation -transport of biogeochemical components -ocean stratification and biological productivity
glacial retreat
-glaciers are retreating alsmot everywhere around the world -including the Alps Himalayas Andes Rockies Alaska and Africa
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
-group created in 1988 by the UN and the World Meteorological Organization, consisting of over 3,000 scientists from the around the world working together to assess climate change -there are 859 authors from 39 countries
mercury levels in indigenous women and POPs in their blood
-heavy metals from emissions further south are accumulating in the Arctic food chains -ultimately in indigenous peoples -most indigenous supply a large share of their household foods from natural resources -many POPs and heavy metals from emissions further south have the same results
global distribution of precipitation
-high precipitation regions in tropics and low precipitation in deserts and poles -cold air holds less moisture
global distribution of precipitation
-high precipitation regions in tropics and low precipitation in deserts and poles -discharge is determined by storage change in water and precipitation and evaporation Q=P-E+change in storage (S)
Conservation of Arctic Biodiversity and Wildlife
-how are humans effecting the biodiversity and wildlife of the Arctic
greenhouse gas emission scenario
-how do we currently stack up in terms of our emissions?
Climate drivers
-human-made climate forcings (mainly greenhouse gases) heat the earth's surface at a rate of about 2.5 watts per square meter -this is equal to 2.5 tiny one-watt bulbs (christmas tree lights) burning over every square meter of the planet -there are several factors that influence Earth's climate based on the factors contribution to radiative forcing between 1750 and 2011
seasonality of Arctic Rivers
-hydrographs show high peaks during spring breakup of ice -higher discharge when more ice melts because there is more water contributing
seasonal differences in hydrographs
-hydrographs show less discharge in the winter because all the water is stored in ice and snow -there is no water to move because of how it is stored during periods of cold temperatures -discharge generally peaks in spring as all the snow melts and adds to the discharge then the discharge decreases in the summer and fall as the snowmelt contributes less -peak events happen in the summer -flashiness is the quickness of change over a short amount of time -if a hydrograph is more flashy, there is more permafrost cover in the area
height of arctic plants
-in general Arctic plants are very short -their small height conforms to the height above ground where air is warmest in summer -their height is also lower than the mean depth of snow cover in the winter
greenhouse-like spaces
-in some cases favorable microenvironment are created -these areas create greenhouse like conditions that are warmer because they are roofed over with clear ice so they are protected from cold/windy conditions but still get the warmth of sunlight through the ice
Biomagnification
-increase in concentration of certain stable chemicals in a successively higher trophic levels of a food chain or web -for example heavy metals or fat-soluble pesticides -not all contaminants biomagnify -e.g. metals like mercury, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) like PCBs, pesticides, dioxins
The petition process for requesting to list an endangered species
-petition is received -90 day service review -not substantial info or substantial info (listing is warranted -review and info gathering (12 months) -data doesn't support need to list OR -data supports need to list but other species are of higher importance (reevaluate annually) OR -data supports need to list and listing is warranted -published proposed rule to list in Federal Register -peer review from 3 species specialists (60 days) -announced decision not to list OR -publish final rule to list in Federal Register -Species is added to list (30 days after announcement)
the effect of climate change on subsistence activities
-physical environment changes: -less sea ice in summer=rougher water -open water is closer to land in winter -difficult to travel with more rain in summer and fall -lakes draining into the sea from ground thawing -predictability of the environment: -hard to tell if river ice will break -different winds -access to resources: difficult to hunt seals because of the lack of multi year ice -changes in animal distribution and conditions -modified timing and location of harvesting activities and how things are harvested
deeply pigmented species
-plants gain a considerable amount of warmth from having a darker pigment -leaves can have a dark purple color -some of these plants can absorb enough energy to begin to grow beneath the snow
Polar Bear Population Distributions
-polar bears are not adapted to survive in an entirely aquatic environment -they are reliant on the presence of sea ice in the marine system for life functions -most are distributed in Lancaster Sound, Gulf of Boothia, and Northern Beaufort Sea (all near/within the Canada archipelago)
population distribution in the Arctic
-populations distribution and indigenous peoples in the Arctic -indigenous peoples form a minority -but within local communities they can form the majority -they are particularly vulnerable to increases immigration by non-indigenous people as a result of industrial development and increased competition for resources -Greenland is mostly indigenous -Canada is about half -the US and Norway indigenous make up about 1/5 of the total population -Iceland, Finland, and Russia all have little to no indigenous
prostate nature
-prostate nature is the low growth habits of plants -this enables them to benefit from the warmer temperatures near the ground -it also allows them to be snow-covered in the winter (acts as insolation)
Arctic Council
-provide a means for promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States -the 8 member states are: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russian Federation, Sweden, and the US -6 working groups that focus on different issues such as monitoring, assessing and preventing pollution in the Arctic -also climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainable use and emergency preparedness and prevention
Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK)
-refers to the evolving knowledge acquired by indigenous and local peoples over hundreds or thousands of years through direct contact with the environment -this knowledge is specific to a location and includes the relationships between plants, animals, natural phenomena, landscapes and timing of events that are used for life ways, including hunting, fishing, trapping, agriculture, and forestry -TEK is an accumulation body of knowledge, practice, and belief evolving by adaptive practices and handed down through generations by cultural transmission -the relationship of living beings (relationships between human and non human) with one another and with the environment
Post-truth era
-relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief -circumstances where facts are less important than emotional appeals -political commentators have identified post-truth politics as driven by a combination of the 24hour news cycle, false balance in news reporting, and the increasing ubiquity of social media
surface freshwater
-rivers, streams, reservoirs and lakes -this is a very small part of the global hydrological cycle -important because -its the main agent of surface change on the Earth's surface (like erosion) -main supply of drinking water -important ecosystems within and surrounding streams and rivers -there are land-ocean linkage of freshwater, nutrients, and carbon -there are land-atmospheric linkages of energy, water and carbon
indirect impacts of humans on Arctic wildlife
-sea ice is declining as a result of increased temps due to increased greenhouse gas emission of humans -this is altering the habitat of Arctic wildlife -sea ice extent is declining quickly
Impacts of recent climate change
-sea level rise -global temperature rise -declining arctic sea ice -extreme events -glacial retreat -shrinking ice sheets -warming oceans -ocean acidification
World Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
-sector from higher emitter to lowest: -energy (transportation, electricity/heat, fuel combustion, industry/industrial processes, fugitive emissions) -land use change -agriculture -waste
Arctic shrubification
-shrubs are increasing in size and are colonizing previously shrub-free tundra -this has important hydrological and permafrost implications -land-atmosphere exchange of carbon and energy is also affected
ocean acidification
-since the beginning of the industrial revolution the acidity if surface ocean waters has increased about 30% -this is a result of humans emitting more CO2 into the atmosphere and hence more is absorbed by oceans -about absorbed by the oceans in increasing by 2 billion tons per year
United Nations Convention Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
-the law in which each state with an ocean boundary has a twelve mile territorial sea, and a two hundred mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) over which it has certain economic rights. -(1982) International agreement that set rules for the use of the world's oceans use, navigation rights, research, protection of marine environment, including restricting overfishing -aka Law of the sea convention/treaty -defines the rights and responsibilities of nations with respect to their use of the worlds oceans -establishing guidelines for business, the environment, and the management of marine natural resources -if continental shelf extends 200 miles, it can be claimed by that nation if they prove it
infiltration capacity
-the maximum rate at which rain can be absorbed by a soil -compaction of soil, pavement (urbanization), and permafrost reduce the capacity of infiltration -when infiltration capacity is reduced, runoff increases, also increasing the risk of floods
infiltration
-the movement of liquid water downward from the land surface into and throughout the soil and rock
Tree line
-the northern limit of tree growth -transition zone: between tundra vegetation in the north and boreal forest/taiga vegetation in the south -tree growth is limited by low air temperatures, low soil temperatures, and low amount of sunlight
northward migration of treeline = low albedo
-the northward migration of shrubs and treeline changes the albedo -as grasslands become inhabited with more shrubs and trees, the snow can not cover this taller/larger vegetation -so the land cover changes from snow cover to forest like -this creates a lower albedo because more incoming solar radiation is absorbed by the darker surface of trees instead of having the high albedo (more reflectance of incoming solar radiation) -during summer and winter more light would be absorbed
extreme events
-the number of record high temperature events in the US has been increasing -the number of record low temps events have been decreasing since 1950 -the US has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events
warming oceans
-the oceans have absorbed much of the increased heat -with the top 700 meters of ocean showing a warming of 0.17 degrees C since 1969
Photosynthetic period
-the photosynthetic period has been shown to be longer for evergreen than for deciduous species -this is because of leaf senescence (the condition or process of deterioration with age) in the late summer for deciduous plants
Break even price for oil in the Arctic
-the price required to cover the cost of production -Arctic oil is expensive to produce -the break even price of known but undeveloped oil reservoirs per barrel in 2015 = $78.6
transpiration
-the release of water into the atmosphere by plant and animal cells
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
-the reports were finalized in 2014 -there are 3 working groups: I. The Physical Science Basis II. Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerability III. Mitigation of Climate Change
top greenhouse gas emitters
-the top 4 emitters in 2016 covered 59% of global emissions -China (28%) -United States (15%) -EU28 (10%) -India (7%) -this changes per capita -the US is by far the top emitter for per capita
runoff
-the total amount of water flowing in a stream
Hardening
-the transition to winter dormancy is accompanied by a process of hardening which gives plants great resistance to frost -hardening prevents the occurrence of frost damage in coniferous trees even at temps al low as -60 degrees Celsius -only a few species can tolerate extreme continental Siberian winter -the deciduous Larch species is better than other non-deciduous needleleaf species
How does the political arctic compare to the distribution of indigenous settlements?
-the two are similar -more groups of indigenous in Russia territory
why is the communication of climate change science important?
-the voting public makes important decisions -if we are able to communicate climate change in a relatable, understandable way more people will be aware and make voting decisions based on their knowledge -voters make HUGE decisions so one may argue that learning how to communicate about climate change to the general public is incredibly important
The Arctic Region
-there are several definitions of the Arctic Region -depending on the intended purpose or type of scientific study -the southern boundary of the Arctic can be -the Arctic Circle -10 degrees Celsius July Isotherm -Treeline -Arctic Flora/Fauna
consensus among climate scientists
-there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that anthropogenic climate change is real -around 97% of scientific literature on climate change say it is anthropogenic
atmospheric CO2 concentrations
-there is fluctuation of CO2 throughout a single year in the Northern Hemisphere because the gain and loss in vegetation causes a CO2 concentration that varies seasonally -in the summer there is less CO2 because more is being absorbed by vegetation -in the winter there is a higher concentration because less is being absorbed -overall from 1995 to present there is an increasing trend in global CO2 concentrations -In Barrows, AK there is major seasonality so the CO2 change is amplified
why is there variation in geographic patterns of warming?
-there is geographic patterns of warming because there are changes to the water cycle which changes everything -an amplified hydrological cycle
future emission scenarios
-these account for many factors including: -population growth -mitigation and conservation efforts -technological and economic development -living standards -there are disproportionate responses of CO2 concentration and radiative forcing to changing emissions -this accounts for the climate commitment to present and future emission pathways
Rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean (3)
-these rivers are characterized by very low winter runoff, high spring flow rates driven by snowmelt, and rain-induced floods in the summer and fall
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)
-this is an international environmental treaty adopted on May 9, 1992 -it was opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro from June 3-14 1992 -it entered into force on March 21, 1994 after a significant number of countries had ratified it -the objective is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system -the framework sets non binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual countries and contains no enforcement mechanisms -instead the framework outlines how specific international treaties (protocols or agreements) may be negotiated to specific further actions towards the objective of the UNFCCC
Endangered Species Act (ESA)
-threatened species: "any species that is likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range" -endangered species: "Any species that is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range"
fossil fuel and industry
-top emitters
Average carbon pools in Tundra and Boreal Forest Ecosystems
-units are in grams of carbon per meter squared -Arctic and Alpine tundra: (9200 soil, 550 vegetation) -Boreal woodlands: (11750 soil, 4150 vegetation) -Boreal forest: (11000 soil, 9450 vegetation) -Global terrestrial: (5900 soil, 7150 vegetation) -so the average carbon pools are highest in boreal forests and woodlands for both soil and vegetation carbon
global projections of temperature and precipitation
-warming patterns are similar in both scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) -but patterns of warming are amplified in RCP8.5 -warming is not globally uniform -warming is greater on land than in the ocean -the Arctic shows the greatest warming
positive forcing
-warms the surface -is an externally applied additions in the net inflow -the leading positive forcing is greenhouse gases -positives outweigh the negatives, so there is a highly positive net change
overland flow
-water flowing across the soil surface on a hillslope, usually resulting from precipitation falling faster than the ground can absorb it -this is how precipitation gets into streams or rivers
Water stored in reservoirs
-water is stored in ocean, atmosphere, and continent reservoirs -water can flux (movement over a function of time) from one reservoir to another -of glacier storage (most is in Antarctica, Greenland, North America, Asia) -of wetlands/lake storage (most in North America, Asia, Africa) -of groundwater storage (most in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Europe, Australia)
stream gauging station
-well to measure depth of water
amplified hydrological cycle
-wetter regions are becoming wetter and drier regions are becoming drier -in wet areas, there is increased water vapor capacity that drives a widened Hadley cell circulation -there is more tropical precipitation -there is a shift of descending branches poleward and expanding dry regions -warmer air can hold more water vapor -this increases precipitation and evaporation -there are wetter high latitudes due to increased atmospheric water capacity -mid latitudes/subtropical/arid/semi-arid areas become more dry because they get less P and E
Hydrological budget
-what controls discharge? -discharge = precipitation - evapotranspiration + change in storage -discharge or the output of water is determined by the input of water through precipitation and the outflow of water through evaporation and a change in how the water is stored
Future Arctic Climate Change
-what recent trends look like compared to the past
flow paths
-where the pater goes and how -hortonian overland flow (furthest from groundwater) -shallow subsurface flow (covering the ground) -groundwater flow (water in the zone of saturation)
permafrost groundwater
-while permafrost acts as an impervious surface and limits the groundwater, it can still exist: -suprapermafrost GW -intrapermafrost GW -subpermafrost GW
current maritime jurisdiction in the Arctic
-who owns what -its determined by who is most present in the Arctic (Russia has a large presence) -also by the 200 mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) determined by the UNCLOS -a lot of it is Russia territorial sea and EEZ -also includes Denmark, Norway, Canada, and the US
why do we care who owns the Arctic?
-with climate change and melting sea ice -the Arctic is transforming and becoming more accessible and its resources are more available -increase in marine shipping, tourism, resource extraction, oil/gas, mining
Action timeline for the Polar Bear
2001: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge was pushed by Bush administration to open for oil and gas development -successful Freedom of Info Act lawsuit to force info on the impacts development would have on polar bears February 2005: the center petitioned the US Fish and Wildlife Service to list the polar bear as threatened under the ESA due to global warming July 2005: Greenpeace and Natural Resource Defense Council joined the Centers petition December 2005: the center greenpeace and the natural resource defense council filed a lawsuit against the service to force a response to the listing petition -June 2006: the service reached a settlement with the center and allies in which it agreed to issue a proposed ruling regarding the polar bears listing by the end of 2006 December 2006: the service announced its proposal to list the polar bear as threatened
Economic and Geopolitical Issues in the Arctic
As global warming shrinks the ice to record lows, the global battle for resources heats up
Current issues with the Pacific walrus
The Pacific walrus primarily inhabits the shallow waters of the Bering and Chukchi Sea (Wolf et al., 2008). This habitat is extremely important for the Pacific walrus and provides several benefits that are crucial to their survival. The ocean bathymetry and sea ice are two major determinants of this habitat. Areas with shallow water and abundant offshore sea ice allow the Pacific walrus to reach their food source while having a nearby place to rest. Pacific walrus find their prey in the shallow waters that are rich with benthic bivalve (Wolf et al., 2008). The sea ice acts as a resting platform for the walrus during feeding, rather than far coastal haul-outs the sea ice is in close proximity allowing the walrus to save their energy. In addition, walrus utilize the sea ice for courtship and birthing as well as movement to new feeding areas. Sea ice is dynamic and therefore constantly moves the walrus around to new foraging ground, providing more food sources while conserving energy.
Hydrograph
a graph which shows the the discharge of a river, related to rainfall, over a period of time -a graph of the water level or rate of flow of a body of water (discharge) as a function of time -2 major Arctic rivers (Lena/Yenisey and Mississippi) have an annual discharge of about 580km3/yr
