Cognitive Psychology: Chapter 13

Are people rational decision makers?

Decision-making: Situation with two or more courses of action, with the requirement to select just one

Which concept below is most closely associated with the evolutionary perspective to solving the Wason four-card problem?

Permission schemas

Judgements

Primary mechanism in inductive reasoning: -How do people reason from evidence -Conclusions are probably, but not definitely true

The application of a(n) _____ makes it easier to solve the "drinking beer" version of the Wason problem.

permission schema

Research in neuroeconomics has found that the function of the ______ may be to deal with the cognitive demands of a given task, while the ______ is responsible for handling emotional goals such as resenting an unfair outcome.

prefrontal cortex; insula

Heuristics

rules of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not fool proof

Failing to consider the law of large numbers most likely results in errors concerning

the representativeness heuristic.

Three types of Heuristics:

1. Availability Heuristic: Easily remembered events judged as more probable than less memorable events *Related to illusory correlation -Mistakenly assume things are correlated when they are not *Stereotype -An oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative *Exaggerated due to confirmation bias -Selectively look for information that supports our beliefs and overlook information that argues against them *My side bias - Tendency for people to generate and evaulate evidence and test their hypotheses in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes; the myside bias is a type of confirmation bias 2. Representativeness Heuristic: Probability that event A comes from class b can be determined by how well A resembles the properties usually associated with class b -Leads people to ignore: -Base rate: relative proportion in the population -Conjunction rule: probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A alone or B alone) -bank tellers and feminist bank tellers example on 375 (Tversky and Kahneman) **Law of Large Numbers -The larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population 3. Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic: Use initial estimate and adjust upward or downward based on other information -Real world applications: -Used car sales -Real estate appraisals -Credit cards

Shortcuts to inductive reasoning

1. Heuristics (more often): simple rules that usually (but not always) lead to a correct decision (Tversky & Kahneman) -Judgement of death experiment (Lichtenstein) 2. Algorithms: formulas that produce consistently optimal outcomes, but may be computationally intensive

4 ways in which humans are predictably irrational

1. Psychic Budgets: Mental categorization of money we've spent or are considering spending -The same amount of money feels different in different categories -wedding cake vs bday cake -education money vs vacation money 2. Sunk costs: Investment is irretrievably lost - focusing on the past and on the future and not the present -Movies: you hate the movie but you stick it out because you put money in -Relationship: Even if you are in a bad relationship, you stay in it because you cant forget all the time and emotion you put in 3. Inferior Third Choice: Add a choice that is clearly inferior to another choice to make another one of the choices look better -Online and paper subscription example 4. Framing Effect: decisions are influences by how many choices are stated -Opt in vs opt out procedures: e.g. lowest organ donation rates for opt-in countries vs compared to opt-out countries (status quo bias) -Risk aversion vs. risk-taking strategies: Take more risks when a problem is framed in terms of loss *Tversky and Kaheman - 200 saved and 400 die experiment on page 385

The rule of the Wason four-card problem is, "If there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side." Let's say you are presented with A, 8, M, and 13, each showing on one of four cards. To see if the rule is valid, you would have to turn over the cards showing

A and 13.

Social Exchange Theory

An important aspect of human behavior is the ability for two people to cooperate in a way that is beneficial to both people.

Syllogism

Aristotle A syllogism consists of two premises followed by a third statement called the conclusion

Economic Utility Theory

Assumes people are rational, choose outcome with maximum expected utility -Utility = monetary value *Criticisms: Utility is subjective humans are predictability irrational *Utility: outcomes that achieve a person's goals **Deal or no deal example (Thierry Post)

Neuroeconomics

Combines research from the fields of psychology, neuroscience, and economics to study how brain activation is related to decisions that involve potential gains or losses -Ultimatum game 385 -Sanfey

Incidental Emotions

Emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision (study be Jennifer Lerner- How emotions can affect the economic decisions of establishing selling and buying)

Expected Emotions

Emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome -Risk aversion: the tendency to avoid taking risks. Can be influenced by emotions *One of the things that increases the chance of risk **The results of Kermers experiments showing that people greatly overestimate the expected negative effect of losing, compared to the actual effect of losing

Belief bias:

If a syllogism is true or agrees with a person's beliefs, it is more likely to be judged valid -Mistakenly think that truth = validity

The Wason Four-Card Problem

If there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side -Performance is better on concrete versions of Wason problem *Permission schema -If a person satisfied a specific condition, the he or she gets to carry out an action

Lydia is 48 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy as an undergraduate. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she participated in anti- nuclear demonstrations. Which of the following alternatives is most probable?

Lydia is a U.S. Congresswoman.

Mental Model of Deductive Reasoning (Phillip Johnson-Laird) in relation to the wason 4 card problem

Mental Model: is a specific situation represented in a person's mind that is used to help determine the validity of syllogisms -basic principle: A conclusion is valid only if it cannot be refuted by any model of the premises

Inductive reasoning

Reasoning based on observations, or reaching conclusions from evidence -conclusions are probably, but not definitely true -strong inductive arguments result in conclusions that are more likely to be true and weak inductive arguments result in conclusions that are less likely to be true *Factors that contribute to the strength on an inductive argument 1. Representativeness of observations 2. Number of Observations 3. Quality of the evidence *Anytime we make a predictions about what will happen based on our observations about what has happened in the past, we are using inductive reasoning. -using the past to guide present behavior

Consider the following argument: Observation: Here in Nashville, the sun has risen every morning. Conclusion: The sun is going to rise in Nashville tomorrow.

The argument is strong because there are a large number of observations.

Reasoning

The process of drawing conclusions

Decisions

The process of making choices between choices

Deductive Reasoning: Conditional Syllogisms

Three statements, first one is "if-then" statement 1. If p, then q 2. P (or q) is/is not true 3. Conclusion about p (or q) "If" term (p) is antecedent "Then" term (q) is consequent

Falisication Principle

To test a rule, it is necessary to look for situation that falsify the rule -Need to test "p" and "not q" to have a valid deduction

Evolutionary Perspective on Cognitive (Leda Cosmides and John Tooby)

We can trace many perspectives of our minds to the evolutionary principles of natural selection.

Deductive reasoning: Categorical syllogisms

We determine whether a conclusion logically follows from statements called premises -Two statements (premises), followed by a third statement (conclusion) -(Validity) Does the conclusion logically follow from the premises -A syllogism is valid when the form of the syllogism indicated that its conclusion follows logically from two premises.

Consider the following syllogism: If p then q. p. q.

abstract conditional

Derrick purchased a new car, a Ford Mustang, less than a month ago. While sitting in traffic, Derrick says to his girlfriend, "Mustangs must be the best-selling car now. I can't remember seeing as many on the road as I have recently." Derrick's judgment is most likely biased by a(n)

availability heuristic.

The finding that people tend to incorrectly conclude that more people die from tornados than from asthma has been explained in terms of the

availability heuristic.

Wally and Sharon are out on a date. When Sharon asks Wally where they should go for dinner, Wally says "My coworkers keep telling me about that new Japanese place downtown, so it must be a great place to eat." Wally's response illustrates the use of a(n)

availability heuristic.

Consider the following syllogism: If it's a robin then it is a bird. It is a bird. Therefore, it is a robin. In the example above, "Therefore, it is a robin" is a ______ of a ______ syllogism.

conclusion; conditional

If a motorcycle cop believes that young female drivers speed more than other drivers, he will likely notice young female drivers speeding in the fast lane but fail to notice young male or older drivers doing the same. In this case, the police officer's judgments are biased by the operation of the

confirmation bias.

One reason that most people do not easily solve the original (abstract) version of the Wason four-card problem is that they

ignore the falsification principle.

Kirk is a generally anxious person. His anxiety sometimes gets in the way when he tries to make decisions. The anxiety Kirk feels is an example of an ______ emotion.

incidental

Bonnie has ordered her monthly supply of medicines through the mail for the past five years. Except for one order, all orders have arrived within two business days. Bonnie placed an order yesterday, and she expects to receive her order tomorrow. Bonnie is using

inductive reasoning.

Consider the following conditional syllogism: Premise 1: If I study, then I'll get a good grade. Premise 2: I got a good grade. Conclusion: Therefore, I studied. This syllogism is

invalid

Many people receive unsolicited calls from telemarketers or unwanted "junk" mailers advertising offers for products such as cable or internet services or cellular phone companies. Most people do not consider these offers and do not make a change to the plans or services that they receive because they do not want to make a decision that requires serious consideration or thought. This is an example of the _______ bias.

status quo

The evolutionary approach proposes that the Wason problem can be understood in terms of people's

tendency to detect when others are cheating.

A syllogism is valid if

the conclusion follows logically from the two premises.

According to your text, the key to solving the Wason four-card problem is

the falsification principle.

Stereotypes are reinforced by all of the following EXCEPT

the falsification principle.

Cecile has dreamed of owning her own home for years, and she can finally afford a small cottage in an older neighborhood. She notices that she feels more positive about her home when she drives home by the abandoned shacks, but she hates her home when driving past the fancy mansions with their large lawns. Cecile's emotions are influenced by

the framing effect.

The conjunction rule states that

the probability of two events co-occurring is equal to or less than the probability of either event occurring alone.

Gabrielle is blonde, extremely attractive, and lives in an expensive condo. If we judge the probability of Gabrielle's being a model quite high because she resembles our stereotype of a model, we are using

the representativeness heuristic.

Consider the following syllogism: All cats are birds. All birds have wings. All cats have wings. This syllogism is

valid