Gov Part 1 and Part 2 Combo

"I will not make age an issue in this campaign"

"I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience," Ronald Reagan quipped during the 1984 presidential debates when asked if, at 73, he is too old to be President. The line — a classic example of Reagan's sense of humor — even solicited a laugh from Democratic opponent Walter Mondale.

Buckley v. Valeo

1976. Upheld limitations on contributions in Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971, but overturned provisions that limited campaign spending and expenditures from candidate's personal funds.

New Hampshire Primary

1st in the nation primary (it's actually in the NH state constitution that it must be the first primary). It serves to narrow the field and give momentum to winners/candidates who exceed expectations. In 2016, one example was Kasich who bet a lot on NH and came in second place (ahead of Rubio, Bush, and Christie), which allowed him to stay in the race much longer by giving him legitimacy/momentum for fundraising on the strategy that he could linger through the SEC primaries and then win his home state of Ohio (which he did) as well as Michigan (which he later backed off from and it didn't happen).

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission

5:4 ruled it was unconstitutional to put any limit on the amount of money corporations can spend influencing elections because it violates the first amendment of freedom of free speech. Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 558 U.S. 310 (2010), was a landmark United States Supreme Court case in which the Court held that the First Amendment prohibited the government from restricting independent political expenditures by corporations and unions. The nonprofit group Citizens United wanted to air a film critical of Hillary Clinton and to advertise the film during television broadcasts in apparent violation of the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (commonly known as the McCain-Feingold Act or "BCRA"). In a 5-4 decision, the Court held that portions of BCRA §203 violated the First Amendment. The decision reached the Supreme Court on appeal from a July 2008 decision by the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. Section 203 of BCRA defined an "electioneering communication" as a broadcast, cable, or satellite communication that mentioned a candidate within 60 days of a general election or 30 days of a primary, and prohibited such expenditures by corporations and unions. The lower court held that §203 of BCRA applied and prohibited Citizens United from advertising the film Hillary: The Movie in broadcasts or paying to have it shown on television within 30 days of the 2008 Democratic primaries. The Supreme Court reversed, striking down those provisions of BCRA that prohibited corporations (including nonprofit corporations) and unions from spending on "electioneering communications". The decision overruled Austin v. Michigan Chamber of Commerce (1990) and partially overruled McConnell v. Federal Election Commission (2003). The Court, however, upheld requirements for public disclosure by sponsors of advertisements (BCRA §201 and §311). Direct contributions from corporations or unions to candidate campaigns or political parties remain illegal in races for federal office.

Lincoln Four-Step

Abraham Lincoln's description of how to win an election: (1) Obtain a complete list of all the voters, (2) Ascertain with certainty for whom each will vote, (3) have the undecided spoken to by those in whom they have the most confidence, and (4) on election day, make sure every Whig gets to the polls (before the Republican party). Certainly relates to a lot of the Groundbreakers tactics used by OFA. Relying on voter databases to micro-target undecideds, having local community leaders/volunteers talk to them because those are people they have confidence in and can connect with, and using that organizational apparatus to GOTV

Dark-Horse Strategy

Concept came to America in the 19th century when it was first applied to James K. Polk, a relatively unknown Tennessee Democrat who won the Democratic Party's 1844 presidential nomination over a host of better-known candidates. Polk won the nomination on the ninth ballot, and went on to win the presidential election. Basically someone who is not well known. Example in 2012 election-- Santorum, Romney= front runner. 2016: perhaps Sanders vs. Clinton, maybe Kasich.

Front-Runner Strategy

Emphasize your success and reinforce that you are the frontrunner as opposed to the underdog narrative (think Trump for fruntrunner, Bernie for underdog). ???This is often coupled with the "unstoppable candidate????. Christie in 2016 had frontrunner rhetoric in New Hampshire and elsewhere, but never got to be the leader, so it didn't pay off. Is more prior to votes being cast. Get ahead, stay ahead, act like the favorite, and don't mess it up (stay above the fray).

Debate Boot Camp

I think this was a little Bob White Factoid from lecture where he talked about Romney preparing for the debates

Microtargeting

Microtargeting is the use by political parties and election campaigns of direct marketing datamining techniques that involve predictive market segmentation (aka cluster analysis). Think Groundbreakers

Faithless Elector

In United States presidential elections, a faithless elector is a member of the United States Electoral College who, for whatever reason, does not vote for the presidential or vice presidential candidate for whom he or she had pledged to vote. They may vote for another candidate or not vote at all. Faithless electors are pledged electors and thus different from unpledged electors.

Battleground/Swing States

In United States presidential politics, a swing state (also, battleground state or purple state) is a state in which no single candidate or party has overwhelming support in securing that state's electoral college votes. Such states are targets of both major political parties in presidential elections, since winning these states is the best opportunity for a party to gain electoral votes. Non-swing states are sometimes called safe states, because one candidate has strong enough support that he or she can safely assume that he or she will win the state's votes. Significance: where smart campaigns will devote resources; you can also pull in the factors of the 2012 election in your definition if you know enough about what happened. 1. http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/ 2. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president

McGovern-Fraser Commission

In wake of 1968 Dem convention--in which the VP Humphrey was nominated despite not entering a single primary, which led to riots--the commission recommended guidelines to govern the next Democratic convention in 1972. The report did not call for more primaries directly, but rather focused on making the process more inclusive. In practice, it created the Primary/media system we have today. It's unintended consequences include the elevated importance of primaries and the media (horserace coverage), money and fundraising as opposed to party bosses, candidate-centric campaign organizations (not party-centric), earlier starts/longer process.

Incumbency Advantage/Disadvantage

Incumbency advantage is they tend to win elections due to name recognition, ability to emphasize past success (clarifying candidate), can use government resources. Disadvantage: might be their traditional poor performance in 1st debate because they aren't used to being challenged; also rose garden strategy requires they act presidential so might not as easily stoop to mudslinging, connoted with establishment, record is scrutinized

Narrowing Effect

Iowa and NH narrowing the field - early primaries?

Non-response Error

Response = percentage of valid sample records that are included in the statistic. It results when people do not respond to the survey. Unit no response = missing respondents. Item nonresponse = missing answers.

Regional Primary

Rotating Regional Primary System is a proposed system for reform of the United States presidential primary process, in which the country would be divided into four regions for primary elections. Helps eliminate the greater say that early states have over the current nomination process. Unintended consequence: too large initial primary size may prevent underfunded candidates from competing

Non-probability Sample

Samples gathered in a process that does not give all the individuals in the population equal chances of being selected. Examples include convenience sampling, consecutive sampling, quota sampling, judgmental sampling, snowball sampling.

Swing Voters

Swing voters are undecided and people who might change their vote. They matter when the base vote is not sufficient for either candidate to win. They are less partisan, more moderate, less informed, and less interested in politics than non-swing voters (According to Mayer, writing in the Craig and Hill book). Candidates try to make appeals to pursuade these voters in the general, specifically swing voters in swing states. Hillygus and Shield's describe Nixon's Southern Strategy using wedge issues like Busing to court southern whites, who he viewed as crucial swing voters.

"Do no harm"

The #1 rule when it comes to selecting a running mate. While factors such as home state, ethnicity, popularity, ability to govern, etc. can play a role in the process, the Eagleton electroshock fiasco demonstrated the deadly effect that a risky VP choice can have on a presidential campaign. Some argue that choosing Sarah Palin hurt McCain's candidacy because she got too much (negative) media coverage and overshadowed him; however, McCain was already losing and likely chose Palin to try and garner more attention/excitement -- he probably would've lost no matter what because of anti-Bush sentiment. Significant because the VP choice is one of the first indicators of a Candidate's judgement. Mentioned in Ulbig reading.

15th Amendment

The 15th Amendment to the Constitution granted African American men the right to vote by declaring that the "right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude." Although ratified on February 3, 1870, the promise of the 15th Amendment would not be fully realized for almost a century. Through the use of poll taxes, literacy tests and other means, Southern states were able to effectively disenfranchise African Americans. It would take the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 before the majority of African Americans in the South were registered to vote.

Iowa Caucus

The 1st nominating contest. The exact procedures are slightly different for democrats and republicans. The caucus involves townhall style meetings in which a campaign surrogate makes a speech to make the candidate's case for the caucusers support. In 2016, Republicans had a secret ballot, while democrats physically stood in a corner of the room to support their candidate. In 2016, Martin O'malley did not meet the minimum threshold requird at many caucus sites so his supporters had to choose to go and join Clinton or Sanders supporters. With caucuses, turnout is very low so having a strong ground game is important -- Cruz beat Trump with his ground game. Along with NH, Iowa is important for narrowing the field and giving momentum to the winners and those who exceed expectations.

Electoral College

The Electoral College is the institution that officially elects the President and Vice President. Each state is represented by a number of electors (Representatives and Senators), who are chosen on a state by state basis in a popular vote. There a 538 in total, and the candidate must win a majority of 270 to win. Critics argue that the electoral college is an undemocratic way of selecting the president because it decreases the significance of a popular election. Most elections hinge on the outcome of certain swing states, and not the vote of the entire country. We have questioned the need for reform in this area throughout the class

"It's morning in America"

The actual title of this 1984 Reagan commercial is "Prouder, Stronger, Better," but the opening line — "It's morning again in America" — inspired the ad's better-known nickname. The message is simple, patriotic and inspirational. It's hard to watch the video and not want to support its candidate; that's probably why it's been called one of the most effective campaign ads ever. The ad followed up on Reagan's famous 1980 debate closing statement centered on "are you better off than you were four years ago?" when running against Jimmy Carter (just weeks before election day).

Invisible Primary

The early part of the primary that takes place prior to any votes being cast. Almost all serious candidates begin at least 2 years before the election to take polls, raise money, identify active supporters in early states, compete for media designation as a frontrunner, compete for consultants, etc. Keys to invisible primary are campaign organization, media attention, poll support, and endorsements. Significance: people exit and enter the race during the invisible primary even though no votes are cast. Examples in 2016 are Scott Walker and Rick Perry.

Common-Carrier Function

The media's function as an open channel through which political leaders can communicate with the public.

Generation Gap

Trend that young voters are increasingly supporting democratic candidates. Lecture on determinants of the vote in presidential election shows data that reflects this upward trend and that recent elections have reached above 60% democratic among 18-29 year olds.

"Low energy"

Trump characterization of Jeb Bush that came to define his candidacy.

VAP

Voting age population - a broader term as it encompasses the section of the overall population of legal age to vote

Sampling Error

[polling] error caused by observing a sample instead of the whole population.

Wedge Issues

a divisive political issue, especially one that is raised by a candidate for public office in hopes of attracting or alienating an opponent's supporters. Republicans' southern strategy used racial issues as a wedge issue to appeal to conservative white democrats - significance: shows the changing of the electorate and campaign strategy as demographics change (Hillygus and Shields)

Primary/Media System

current nominating system (1972-today) that arose in the wake of the McGovern-Fraser reforms after the 1968 democratic convention. Primaries determine how many pledged delegates candidates get. Conventions are now primarily media events, though could still be in play if no one clinches a majority of delegates on the 1st ballot. Some unintended consequences of McGovern-Fraser: media is more important (horserace coverage), decreased power of party establishment/bosses (though superdelegates attenuate this), money and funding more important, candidate-centric rather than party-centric campaigns, longer campaigns

Realignment

describes dramatic change in political system, it refers to American national elections in which there are sharp changes in issues, party leaders, the regional and demographic bases of power of the two parties, and structure or rules of the political system (such as voter eligibility or financing), resulting in a new political power structure that lasts for decades. Sides & Vavreck (Gamble): critical elections that supposedly unified party control of gov't and spurred a major shift in policy. Main feature is durability. Argue that realignment does not describe what happens, there is actually a tendency for a large margin of victory in one election leading to smaller margins of victory in subsequent elections; this has been described as a tendency toward equilibration.

Expert Opinion or Checklist Forecasts

ex: "Keys to the White House", elections rely on incumbent party and how the nation fares under the incumbent. These types of models are largely unscientific (Carlos said in class)

Ticket Balancing

for VP pick, candidate may use this strategy to make up for one of his perceived weaknesses (i.e. washington outsider may pick someone with experience there) → goal of bringing more widespread support to campaign. Used to be more geographic balancing, now more demographic

Vetting Process

for VP? Beth Myers (Romney's Aide) spoke about this in class, long vetting process for VP, need to make sure they will do no harm to candidate, no skeletons, etc. (McGovern's VP Choice, Thomas Eagleton, had received electroshock therapy for depression. He was eventually replaced on the ticket) -This 'vetting process' could also potentially mean how the candidate gets 'vetted' by the public, media, over the course of the campaign... if it's this vague on the test i'd go with VP vetting

Watchdog Function

function of the media, fact check statements, hold government and candidates accountable

Signaling Function

function of the media: the accepted responsibility of the media to alert the public to important developments as soon as possible after they happen or are discovered.

Permanent Campaign

governing with public approval requires a continuing political campaign. the changes in American politics from old-style patronage and party organization to that based on the modern technology of computer driven polling and media created a fundamentally new system. He explained that political consultants had replaced the party bosses and brought with them a new model by which campaigning became the forms of governing.

Recency Effect

has to do with polling, When asked to recall a list of items in any order (free recall), people tend to begin recall with the end of the list, recalling those items best

Time for Change Model

predicts the two-party popular vote based on the state of the economy, the incumbent's popularity, the time the incumbent president has been in office, and since 2012, a measure to account for increasing levels of polarization.

Party Activists

someone who is aligned with a political, economic, or social party and who promotes that party's principles through a variety of means. Very active in nominating process during convention era and "mixed" system

Frontloading

states choosing to go early in primaries in order to have more say, which extends the length of elections. More contests early in the season -> longer election

Strategy vs. Tactic

strategy is big overall plan and tactic is individual components of how you get to the strategy

Political Efficacy

the citizens' faith and trust in government and their belief that they can understand and influence political affairs. It is commonly measured by surveys and is used as an indicator for the broader health of civil society

Sample Frame

the source material or device from which a sample is drawn. It is a list of all those within a population who can be sampled, and may include individuals, households or institutions

Super Tuesday

tuesday early on in primary election process where many states hold contests

Urban/Rural Gap

urban areas tend to vote democratic, while rural areas vote republican, population density and voting patterns linked.

Instrumental Responsiveness

use of polls and focus groups to attempt to manipulate public opinion - a characteristic of permanent campaigns. Rather than trying to promise people in permanent campaign, you engage public in a way that tells them what they want to hear so that they support your cause.

Pocketbook Evaluations

vote based on how you're doing $, aka whats in your pocket

Cross-Pressured Voter

voter caught between conflicting values in own life. Therefore some beliefs align with one party and other beliefs with the other.

Sociotropic Evaluations

voters look at the economy's performance and evaluate their electoral choices with the goal of maximizing "social welfare" in mind

VEP

voting eligible population - demographic that represents members of the population that are actually eligible to vote. This covers the population who are registered as voters. It does not include persons that are not eligible to vote, such as non-citizens, and in certain states in the United States, convicted felons

Prospective Voting Theory

voting with an eye to the future. People vote for the candidates that they believe will do the most to help the country in the next few years.

Primacy Effect

when given a list of information and later asked to recall that information, the items at the beginning (primacy) are more likely to be recalled than the items in the middle

leaners

Those who lean toward a party even if they identify as independent

Pure Independents

Today many 'independents' are partisan, just don't identify with a party, "pure independents" are pretty rare, and they're less likely to vote than in the 50s and 60s

"Because they can't. Because they don't want to. Because nobody asked."

Top 3 reasons why people do not participate in elections per Verba, Schlozman, and Brady's Voice and Equity. CAN'T: illegal aliens, physical difficulties, lack of transportation, etc. DON'T WANT TO: They have no incentive to go out and vote because they do not believe their vote will make an impact. NOBODY ASKED: People are more likely to vote if someone asks them to vote. This emphasizes the need for a personal touch and grassroots efforts -- Obama's GOTV efforts chronicled in groundbreakers was key to his win. Significance: grassroots mobilization and GOTV efforts can micro-target the nobody asked voters. Quote from Tip O'neill at the beginning of the Wielhouwer reading on grassroots campaigning (in Craig and Hill) about a long-time family friend commenting that "people like to be asked" and she thought he should know that she voted for him even though he didn't ask.

538

Total # of electors in the electoral college. Each state receives the number of electoral vote for each representative it has in Congress. DC receives the minimum of 3 (435 reps + 100 senators + 3 for DC = 538)

Skaperdas-Grofman Model

Treats decisions to go negative as both rational and contingent on standing in race. in 2 candidate contest front runner will engage in more positive campaigning and less negative than the opponent, in 3 candidate race, negative campaigning will be directed at strongest rival - Buell & Sigelman. They find historically, candidates don't seem to follow this "rational" model of campaigning

Minimal Effects Thesis

camapigns matter on the margins • early vote decisions • indiv vote choice stability • stable partisan electorate • retrospective voting • predictability • campaigns cancel each other out • minimal effects: have to be paying attention, ppl most paying attention, least likely to be pursuaded

Benchmark Surveys

candidate commissions: name recognition level, electoral strength, incumbent performance---timing is an issue

Insurgent Candidate

candidate that disassociates himself from the economy (see clarifying candidate above) → Sides & Vavreck; should re-focus campaign to other issues.

Digital Integration

changes made by campaigns to adapt to new technologies like the internet, social media, etc. Think Dean '04 with online donations, Obama '08

Elector

choosen by candidate to go and cast physical vote for them in each state (ex: Bob white was one of Mitt's electors for MA, he never got to vote though because Mitt lost MA)

Cross-Sectional Survey

collecting data from a subset at one specific point of time

Proportional System

could be many things... proportional representation is what other democracies have that we dont, we do have proportional allocation of votes in certain primary contests however (all Dem contests). But system in this case makes me think of like a parliamentary proportional system. Proportional popular vote system for electoral college unintended consequence: focus on populous areas like cities.

Coverage Error

coverage errors arise from failure to cover adequately all components of the population being studied. This applies to opinion polls when there is a use of samples that are not representative of the population as a consequence of the methodology used. (mobile phone example)

"It's the economy, stupid"

"It's the economy, stupid" is a slight variation of the phrase "The economy, stupid" which James Carville had coined as a campaign strategist of Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against sitting president George H. W. Bush. Carville's original phrase was meant for the internal audience of Clinton's campaign workers as one of the three messages to focus on, the other two messages being "Change vs. more of the same" and "Don't forget health care." Clinton's campaign had advantageously used the then-prevailing recession situation in the US as one of the campaign means to successfully unseat George H. W. Bush. In March 1991, days after the ground invasion of Iraq, 90% of polled Americans approved of President Bush's job performance. Later the next year, Americans' opinions had turned sharply; 64% of polled Americans disapproved of Bush's job performance in August 1992. In order to keep the campaign on message, Carville hung a sign in Bill Clinton's Little Rock campaign headquarters that read: 1. Change vs. more of the same 2. The economy, stupid 3. Don't forget health care. Although the sign was intended for an internal audience of campaign workers, the phrase became a de facto slogan for the Clinton election campaign.

270

# of electoral college votes required to win, could talk about winner take all delegate states, swing state focus, etc.

King Caucus:

(1800-1828) - the parties in congress got together and selected party nominees. In 1824, winner of popular vote and winner of plurality of electoral college vote, Andrew Jackson, did not win the election - it was thrown into house due to no majority, which chose John Quincy Adams, and became known as the "corrupt bargain." Jackson founds his own party in the next election, which evolved into today's Democrats

Mixed System

(1912-1968) States have beauty contest primaries that don't really mean anything. The nominees still chosen in conventions. This changes after 68 dem convention where Humphrey is picked despite not entering any primaries; voters riot; leads to McGovern-Fraser commission and reforms that create our current system.

Focus Group

(Wayne) focus groups call hand in hand with polls, candidates want to develop polls that focus on particular information needs that campaigns have, such as whether a particular appeal is having the desired effect, are more useful. -important to monitor the public's opinion of a candidate so that the candidate will now how to use his/her ads to monitor public sentiment, appeal to it, and try to manipulate it, all at the same time. -Focus groups are in depth discussions with ten to twelve voters for a period of one and a half to two hours that deal with candidates, issues and verbiage. They are meetings with voters selected at random by phone within defined demographic parameters.that offer in-depth information that mold the campaign into a being. Political insiders like to believe that they know everything about the issues and images that surround a campaign but the focus groups give voters an unfiltered chance to tell us what they think is important. In this period of political discontent, anytime you give voters the chance to sound off, the better you will be to understand a hostile political environment.

Partisan Function

(function of media) Efforts by media actors to influence public response to a particular party, leader, issue, or viewpoint.

Super Delegate

(in the Democratic Party) an unelected delegate who is free to support any candidate for the presidential nomination at the party's national convention. → significance: after 1972, primaries gave more power to people but super delegates allow party (& high members of party) to have more control - began in 1984 after party leaders believed leaving too much influence to primary voters (post McGovern-Fraser) weakened tickets of Jimmy Carter and George McGovern

Front Porch Campaign

A front porch campaign is a low-key electoral campaign used in American politics in which the candidate remains close to or at home to make speeches to supporters who come to visit. The candidate largely does not travel around or otherwise actively campaign.[1] The successful presidential campaigns of James A. Garfield in 1880,Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and William McKinley in 1896 are perhaps the best-known front porch campaigns. McKinley's opposing candidate, William Jennings Bryan, gave over 600 speeches and traveled many miles all over the United States to campaign, but McKinley outdid this by spending about twice as much money campaigning. While McKinley was at his Canton, Ohio, home conducting his "front-porch campaign", Mark Hanna was out raising millions to help with the campaign. Another president that had been known for his front porch campaign was Warren G. Harding during the presidential election of 1920. The concept remains in use in American politics, and was used in June 2008 by U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions to describe his low-key renomination bid in Alabama's Republican primary where he received 92 percent of the vote.

National Primary

A proposed reform for the primary system so as to prevent early states from having a disproportionate say on who the eventual nominee is and shorten the length of the election (and in doing so perhaps suppress spending a bit). One unintended consequence of such a reform is only candidates with big name recognition at the start would do well under this shorter system - we would eliminate dark-horse candidates from getting their name out and it would favor frontrunners.

"Binders full of women"

Another famous Romney gaffe that happened during the 2nd presidential debate in response to a question about how he would "rectify the inequalities in the workplace for women's pay." He was referring to his decision to hire women in his cabinet during his gubernatorial administration (i.e. he had binders full of women's resumes). "I had the chance to pull together a Cabinet, and all the applicants seemed to be men," he said. "He went to his staff and asked why all the applicants were men, and they responded saying that the applicants that were qualified just happened to be men, and Romney said well gosh can we not find some applicants that are women but also qualified?" So they took a concerted effort to go out and find women who had backgrounds that would make them qualified to be members of their cabinet. "I went to a number of women's groups and said, 'Can you help us find folks?' and they brought us whole binders full of women." Quote exploded on the internet and became a meme

The Voting Rights Act of 1965

August 6, 1965, aimed to overcome legal barriers at the state and local levels that prevented African Americans from exercising their right to vote under the 15th Amendment → decreased racial discrimination in voting.

Convergence

Buell & Sigelman define issue convergence in their paper on attack politics/negativity in presidential campaign. They define it as "when both sides take conflicting positions on most issues, thereby illuminating their differences" as opposed to issue ownership where parties traditionally play up some issues and avoid others. They contend that issue ownership is overstated, as parties have increasingly talked about the same issues as they compete for undecided and independent voters.

Contrast Ads

Can highlight difference between candidates

External Validity

Can you generalize from the survey population to the overall population. The primary component that drives a poll's external validity is how representative your sample is. "If we did the survey among everyone, would we get the same results?" [could go into more detail on types of sampling in the lecture, but idk if it's necessary]

Models of Representation

Delegate (representatives act as the mouthpiece for their constituencies, serving only their interests - public opinion should determine policy), Representative (?), and Trustee (constituents elect representative as their "trustee" to exercise judgement based on the common good and national interest - public opinion wouldn't matter as much in shaping policy). Delegate and Trustee models were formulated by Edmund Burke (not sure about representative). Significance: each represents different opinions of how much public opinion should affect public policy.

Delegate

Delegates are people that represent the voice of the people and place a vote for a candidate during the primaries. A candidate must win a certain number of delegates to win the nomination. Unlike electors, delegates are very unstable and can switch their votes. The states decide on delegates. In some states, you run to be a delegate. In others, the nominee picks you to represent him. National parties make rules about how delegates are allocated, when they have to be selected by, etc. The republicans have a winner takes all system where if you win the primary/caucus in the state, you take all the delegates for the state. This allows you to accumulate delegates quickly. In this election cycle, many republican primaries moved towards the proportional representative system but many still had winner takes all. The Republicans have super delegates that are only current party officials. These super delegates vote in all the primaries and are given the role of breaking a tie. The Democrats use the proportional representative system, where if you get 70% of the vote, you receive 70% of the delegates. Democrats also have super delegates that are current and former party officials - ex Bill Clinton.

Densification

Densification refers to the explosion in the sheer volume of political and campaign communications with the coming of digital networks, channels and devices. The density of public communication has increased along five dimensions: (1) more voices uttering remarks have yielded an increase of almost 10% in citizen participation in campaign communications; (2) more remarks per voice has demanded greater consistency and coordination in message delivery; (3) more days remarks are available; (4) more places from which remarks can be dispatched and accessed; (5) more categories is which remarks are grouped, as consumers interact with media in new ways.

Memorandum of Understanding

Document created by the Commission on Presidential Debates in which all the rules and details negotiated by the candidates are outlined and agreed to

"There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe"

During a 1976 presidential debate against a then-obscure Georgia Governor named Jimmy Carter, Ford famously uttered: "There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe." The moderator, Max Frankel of the New York Times, responded incredulously, "I'm sorry, what? ... did I understand you to say, sir, that the Russians are not using Eastern Europe as their own sphere of influence in occupying most of the countries there and making sure with their troops that it's a communist zone?" But Ford refused to back down from his original statement, insisting that Poland, Romania and Yugoslavia are free from Soviet interference. The answer haunted him for the remainder of the campaign and arguably cost him the election. Somewhat ironically, Ford was the first candidate to agree to a televised debate since Richard Nixon's disastrous appearance opposite John F. Kennedy in 1960.

"How has the national debt affected you personally?"

During the 1992 town hall presidential debate, a member of the audience asked George H.W. Bush how the national debt had affected him personally. Bush asked her to clarify her question, and she explained that she knew and had herself experienced economic hardships, and wanted to know how well he understood the plight of an American people struggling through a recession. In short, his response not only failed to respond to her concerns, but brushed them aside. He could not respond with personal difficulties, appearing wealthy and out of touch, whereas Clinton connected with the questioner and made it personal.

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act

Established by John McCain and Russ Feingold. The increased role of soft money (money directed to parties for "campaign activities" not directly to a candidate) in campaign financing, by prohibiting national political party committees from raising or spending any funds not subject to federal limits, even for state and local races or issue discussion. The proliferation of issue advocacy ads, by defining as "electioneering communications" broadcast ads that name a federal candidate within 30 days of a primary or caucus or 60 days of a general election, and prohibiting any such ad paid for by a corporation (including non-profit issue organizations such as Right to Life or the Environmental Defense Fund) or paid for by an unincorporated entity using any corporate or union general treasury funds. The decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission overturns this provision, but not the ban on foreign corporations or foreign nationals in decisions regarding political spending. This act modified the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971.

Issue Ownership

From Buell & Sigelman: Parties traditionally play up some issues and avoid others, but the authors say the degree of possession implied by issue ownership is probably overstating things as the parties have increasingly talked about the same issues as they compete for undecided and independent voters. Buell & Sigelman actually think there is more issue convergence, in which parties take opposing stances on the same issues to differentiate themselves.

Reinforcement

Franz (in craig & hill) argue that research suggests ads serve to have a reinforcement effect - they remind people what they already like and dislike about the candidates or parties.

"Eisenhower Answers America"

Famous ad that made people reflect on what kind of change they needed. It shows a voter telling Eisenhower that the democrats are telling him that he never had it so good. Eisenhower answers saying, "how can you have it so good if...[states the current problems]." The ads were bold in conception as they were simple in execution. The campaign created forty "spot ads," each consisting of a question from an ordinary voter and a response from the candidate. The answers were filmed first, in a midtown Manhattan studio, with General Eisenhower reading off of cue cards. The questions were filmed later, read by tourists who were scouted in front of Radio City Music Hall. Eisenhower is filmed in the elevated position; the questioners all look up at him, establishing a personal connection but also keeping him in the position of the hero. The ads stick to three key points: high prices, the war in Korea, and gridlock in Washington. Yet the spots are clearly selling more than just the answers to these problems; they are selling Eisenhower's personality. The campaign spent nearly two million dollars to saturate the airwaves with these ads in twelve key states during a three-week period in October. Adlai Stevenson's campaign manager George Ball decried the effort to sell Eisenhower in the same manner as "soap, ammoniated toothpaste, hair tonic, or bubble gum." Stevenson was the first—and last—candidate to refuse to appear in TV ads. In November he won a landslide victory on the basis of his pledge to clean up "the mess in Washington" and end the Korean War. (examples: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjasjdBQ7QM)

FECA

Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 is the primary law regulating political campaign spending and fundraising. Set ceilings on how much candidates could contribute to their own campaigns, allowed unions and corporations to form PACs to solicit contributions, established procedures for public disclosure of contributions over a certain amount, set contribution ceilings for individuals and groups who want to contribute, set spending limits for campaigns, provided for public funding of campaigns, established the FEC to enforce campaign laws. Significance: Many provisions limiting money in campaigns were later undermined. Some provisions, like overall limits on campaign expenditures, limits on independent expenditures by individuals and groups, and limits on expenditures from personal funds were later struck down in Buckley v. Valeo. Additional amendments allowed for unlimited amounts of "soft money" (which was then restricted in its use by the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act). Citizens United granted corporations free speech and led to Super PACs which has largely made the FECA irrelevant because unlimited amounts of money can be spent through a different channel.

FEC

Federal Election Commission. Established by a 1974 amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) to regulate campaign finance. It describes its duties as "to disclose campaign finance information, to enforce the provisions of the law such as the limits and prohibitions on contributions, and to oversee the public funding of Presidential Elections." The FEC is bipartisan (by law no more than 3 members can be from the same party). Significance for this course: We discussed how Obama in '08 was 1st candidate to reject public funding, and Citizens United has further diminished the appeal of public funding because unlimited spending via Super PACs is allowed. Moreover, the grey areas about "coordination" between Super PACs and candidates are supposed to be regulated by the FEC, but for a candidate to be punished it would require his/her own partisans voting against them. We have seen these grey areas allow people to coordinate with their Super PACs before formally announcing, attend fundraisers if they don't ask for money directly (Romney in the video we watched in lecture), and upload raw ad footage for super PACs to grab. Also, we discussed in section the possibility of regulating polls and whether this should be under the FEC's purview.

Dynamic Equilibrium

From The Gamble by Sides and Vavreck. They describe campaigns as a tug of war between two parties that cancel each other out (result of 2 vigorous campaigns is often a tie). They contend that part of the reason presidential contests are so stable is that the major-party candidates tend to be evenly matched in terms of resources: it's not that campaigns don't matter, it's that they cancel each other out. In primaries, however, they think media coverage and electioneering can favor one candidate at the expense of others because campaigns are not evenly matched. Thus, while when one side out-campaigns the other the impact is short-lived in general elections because it's difficult for either side to sustain its advantage, in primaries this is not the case due to vast differences in resources (money, consultants, surrogates, endorsements, etc.)

Voting Gaps

Gaps in voting participation based on race, income, education, etc.

GOTV

Get out the vote. Think of the book discussed in lecture: Voice and Equity by Verba, Schlozman, and Brady and how one of the big reasons people don't vote is because nobody asked them to. Mobilizing the base is one of the areas where campaigns can make the biggest difference -- persuading voters and neutralizing are relatively less important. Groundbreakers demonstrated the importance of the GOTV operations by Obama For America by showing how his grassroots organization helped mobilize voters to turnout for him.

Help Americans Vote Ac

HAVA, passed in 2002, created minimum voter access standards for states to follow and established the Election Assistance Commission (EAC) to help states achieve these standards and distribute funds. The EAC also maintains the National Voter Registration form, conducts research, and administers a national clearinghouse on elections that includes shared practices, information for voters, and other resources. HACA requires that states implement new programs and procedures: provisional voting, voting information, updated and upgraded voting equipment, statewide voter registration databases, voter identification procedures, administrative complaint procedures.

Hard vs. Soft Money

Hard money refers to direct contributions to candidates, which is regulated by the FEC, while Soft money refers to unregulated, unlimited contributions to political parties for so-called party building activities. Significance: the shorter Spring Interregnum means the party is not yet unified for longer so the party's "soft money" can't be spent in support of any single candidate until later. Usually, according to Bob White in Lecture, the Spring Interregnum involves the Candidate and party getting together to discuss joint fundraising.

Hard vs. Soft News

Hard news includes typical news outlets, while soft news refers to other entertainment-oriented sources of news, such as the Daily Show and formerly the Colbert Report. Wayne discusses how soft news is a relatively new development in campaigns that can really impact the perception of candidates.

Minimal Effects Conundrum

If a campaign is going to change your mind, you have to be persuaded. The people who are paying attention (are informed) are least likely to change vote. More likely to change vote are uninformed people, but they don't pay attention to the campaign. In political science, the minimal effects hypothesis states that political campaigns only marginally persuade and convert voters. The hypothesis was formulated during early research into voting behavior between the 1940s and the 1960s. The hypothesis seemed solid and was associated with the general assumption that voters had clear positions on issues and knew where candidates stood on these issues. Since then the minimal effects hypothesis has been criticized and empirical research since the 1980s has suggested that voters do have uncertainties about candidates' positions and these uncertainties do influence voters' decisions. These findings have led to renewed interest in research into the effects of campaigns, with recent published research appearing both for and against the minimal effects hypothesis

Index of Political Predisposition:

In 1940s Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet created an index of predispositon: predicted which party you were more likely to vote for based on social characteristics such as socio-economic level, religion, and residence

Jacksonian Democracy

Jacksonian democracy is the political movement during the Second Party System toward greater democracy for the common man symbolized by American politician Andrew Jackson and his supporters. The Jacksonian Era lasted roughly from Jackson's 1828 election as president until the slavery issue became dominant after 1850 and theAmerican Civil War dramatically reshaped American politics as the Third Party System emerged. Jackson's policies followed the era of Jeffersonian democracy which dominated the previous political era. When the Democratic-Republican Party of the Jeffersonians became factionalized in the 1820s, Jackson's supporters began to form the modern Democratic Party. They fought the rival Adams andAnti-Jacksonian factions, which soon emerged as theWhigs. More broadly, the term refers to the era of the Second Party System (mid-1830s-1854) characterized by a democratic spirit. It can be contrasted with the characteristics of Jeffersonian democracy. Jackson's equal political policy became known as "Jacksonian Democracy", subsequent to ending what he termed a "monopoly" of government by elites. Jeffersonians opposed inherited elites but favored educated men while the Jacksonians gave little weight to education. The Whigs were the inheritors of Jeffersonian Democracy in terms of promoting schools and colleges.[1] Even before the Jacksonian era began, suffrage had been extended to a majority of white male adult citizens, a result the Jacksonians celebrated. In contrast to the Jeffersonian era, Jacksonian democracy promoted the strength of the presidency and executive branch at the expense of Congress, while also seeking to broaden the public's participation in government. The Jacksonians demanded elected (not appointed) judges and rewrote many state constitutions to reflect the new values. In national terms they favored geographical expansion, justifying it in terms of Manifest Destiny. There was usually a consensus among both Jacksonians and Whigs that battles over slavery should be avoided. Jackson's expansion of democracy was largely limited to Americans of European descent, and voting rights were extended to adult white males only. There was little or no progress for African-Americans and Native Americans (in some cases regress) Jackson's biographer Robert V. Remini argues that Jacksonian Democracy: stretches the concept of democracy about as far as it can go and still remain workable....As such it has inspired much of the dynamic and dramatic events of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries in American history—Populism, Progressivism, the New and Fair Deals, and the programs of the New Frontier and Great Society.

Econometric Prediction Models

Key is they can predict the outcomes of elections months before they happen, even before we know who the candidates are... the accuracy of these in recent years have called into question the impact of campaigns overall

old vs new media

Old media involves broadcast and cable television, radio, movie, newspapers, magazines, books and most print publications. New Media includes the rise of the "new" news such as Partisan radio talk shows, the emergence of the Internet which has low cost entry fees compared to other mass media. New Media also includes the rise of "soft" news such as night time talk shows (The Daily Show, The Colbert Report, SNL) and news as a form of entertainment, and the rise of social media (Facebook, Twitter, and other social networks.) A theme that this term could tie to is the expansion of media means also more info (densification), resulting in campaigns adapting to utilize both forms. Narrowcasting issues with new media allowing for confirmation bias sites New media, actions of citizens can easily affect impact of a story, more shares, more likes Attention spans are brief, need to be entertaining to people, sound bites in new media

Direct Mail

One of the methods of campaign communication. Other methods include Door-to-door canvassing, e-mail and other Internet communications, and the news. Direct Mail is the costliest method but allows candidates to target voters and send different messages to different people. Personalized mailings are very effective but generic mailings tend to have less of an effect. Candidates send direct mail only to people who are likely to vote. ex. Sunshine: Gay-friendly ads on Will and Grace by Bush campaign that was, at the same time, sending out antigay mail → idk where this person got this from GOTV campaigns, campaign spending Proven to increase mobilization

Enthusiasm Gap

One party having a much more enthusiastic and energized base than the other. Think Obama in 08 vs. McCain, where Obama was this grassroots organizer that generated excitement, while a lot of the Republican base didn't like McCain and he tried to use Palin to appeal to the more conservative wing of his party, which was probably not that successful. Or perhaps Bernie vs. Hillary

Operation Dixie

Operation Dixie was the name of the post-World War II campaign by the Congress of Industrial Organizations to unionize industry in the Southern United States, particularly the textile industry. Launched in the spring of 1946, the campaign ran in 12 Southern states and was undertaken as part of a dual effort to consolidate wage gains won by the trade union movement in the Northern United States by raising wage levels in the South while simultaneously transforming the conservative politics of the region, thereby allowing the trade union agenda to win on a national scale. Operation Dixie failed largely due to Jim Crow laws and the deep-seated racial strife in the South which made it difficult for black workers and poor whites to engage cooperatively for successful union organization. The passage of the Taft-Hartley Act additionally undercut the campaign, making it easier for employers to obstruct union organizing drives by inhibiting theright to strike and allowing prohibition of closed shops. The Cold War Red Scare also hurt the union movement throughout the United States by increasing hostility to the left in general and unions in particular. The CIO's defeat in Operation Dixie was a contributing factor in the decision of the traditionally more radical trade union federation to merge with the conservative American Federation of Labor and form the AFL-CIO in 1955 — a move that signified a long-term trend away from radical social unionism towards the more conservative business unionism strategy long favored by the AFL. In the long-term, the failure of Operation Dixie to end the South's status as a low-wage, non-union haven impeded the ability of the union movement to maintain its strength in North and was a contributing factor in the decline of the American union movement in the second half of the 20th century as unions were unable to prevent businesses from holding back wage increases by either moving to the South or threatening to do so.

National Conventions

Party events in which nominees are formally chosen/announced. From 1832-1912, nominees of parties were completely decided in "smoke-filled room" conventions, where party bosses chose behind closed doors and in back room deals. From 1912-1968, we had a "mixed system" states started holding primaries, but these were meaningless popularity contests because the nominees were still chosen in the conventions, until in 1968 the Dems chose Humphrey without him entering a single primary, prompting unrest and reform via the McGovern-Fraser commission. In today's system primaries/caucuses determine the number of pledged delegates candidates get at the election. These delegates are forced to vote for that candidate for at least one ballot at the convention. Thus, typically the conventions are more media events where the party formally announces the nominee, gets free publicity for their candidates, and energize the base. There is evidence of a post-convention bounce in the poles, but it is very temporary and usually is gone in ~1 month.

Deliberative Responsiveness

People and their opinion rule, but public opinion does not govern. These are the institutions outlined in the constitution - in which public opinion matters, but does not directly control policymaking. However, mimetic responsiveness is when public opinion is directly reflected in policy as policymakers just reproduce what the public wants.

Early Voting

Refers to the opportunity voters have to cast their vote before Election Day. That states are in charge of conducting early voting and many states now have early voting polling stations. The goal of early voting is to get more people out to vote. This gives people who have to work or will be out of state on Election Day the opportunity to vote. Early voting tends to favor democrats. Represents a change to our voting system that is attempting to increase voter turnout. Also, complicates the accuracy of exit polls, which usually don't account for early voting

Gender Gap

Phenomenon that women tend to support the Democratic candidate. Historically, this was not always the case, but per the lecture on determinants of the vote in presidential elections, women have favored democrats in every election in 1992, voting for Obama in 2012 by a 55%-44% margin. For men, the trend is not as clear, though they are skewing more Republican in all those elections except 1992 and 2008.

PAC

Political Action Committee = an organization that pools campaign contributions from members and donates those funds to campaign for or against candidates, ballot initiatives, or legislation. There are some restrictions on who can contribute to PACs, how much, etc. Geers finds an increase in negative ads from PACs (perhaps due to McCaign-Feingold I approve this message)

Grassroots Campaign

Political activity that involves large numbers of "real people" as opposed to activity that involves mainly political elites. Primarily used when paired up with technology and analytics to micro-target voters (this definition is from the Hill & Craig Electoral Challenge book - Peter W. Wielhouwer wrote the relevant chapter?). Groundbreakers documents the effective community organizing used by Obama For America to use a strong network of volunteers to target voters in a metrics-driven way. Many of the concepts were adapted from Howard Dean's limited grassroots success in '04 (before the Dean scream) and relied on using technology as well as distributing responsibility to volunteers while maintaining central control using FOs to monitor and report on metrics through the snowflake model.

1960s Presidential Debates

Pres debates televised starting in 1960, benefitted Kennedy largely-- general elections took a break until 1976, but primary debates happened

Pulpit Candidate

Pulpit candidate strategy - know you're not gonna win but stay in to make a point (Ron Paul)

"47 percent"

Quote from Mitt Romney secretly recorded at a fundraising event in which he said 47% of the people in this country will never vote for me because they are dependent on government and feel they are entitled to government handouts. This gaffe contributed to the perception of Romney as an out-of-touch rich guy and could help explain why, as Bob White explained in lecture, Romney lost by such large margins with voters whose number one priorty was electing someone "who cares about me." Had Romney performed better among those voters he could have won the election. However, Sides and Vavreck (The Gamble) argue it was insignificant in the outcome of the election: It caused some Romney voters to move away, but those "who shifted away from Romney after the video's release came back to him after the first debate."

Checkers Speech

Senator Nixon was one of the first politicians to use the medium of television to defend himself against accusations of wrong-doing. This speech came during the 1952 presidential election campaign. Senator Nixon was Dwight D. Eisenhower's vice-presidential running mate. Accused of accepting illegal gifts, Nixon used his television appearance to deny the allegations and outline his personal financial circumstances. Nixon referred to a cocker spaniel dog his family had been given. Black and white spotted, they called it Checkers. "And you know, the kids, like all kids, love the dog and I just want to say this right now, that regardless of what they say about it, we're gonna keep it." The address thereafter became known as the Checkers speech. At the election six weeks later, the Republican Eisenhower-Nixon ticket defeated the Democratic ticket of Adlai Stevenson II and John Sparkman. Nixon became vice-president on January 20, 1953.

Clarifying Candidate

Sides & Vavreck: Those who are helped by the state of the economy: either point to its success and clarify how they contributed to it, or point to its weakness and clarify how opponent contributed to that. Think Bill Clinton ("it's the economy, stupid") Ronald Reagan as challenger ("are you better off than you were 4 years ago?) and Reagan again in 84 ("morning in america" highlights how things improved relative to 4 years prior). Insurgent candidates are those who are associated with a bad economy - tend to focus campaign on other issues.

Iowa Straw Poll

The Iowa Straw Poll (also known as the Ames Straw Poll)[1] was a presidential straw poll and fundraising event for the Republican Party of Iowa. It was held six times, traditionally in late summer approximately six months in advance of contested presidential Iowa caucuses, from 1979 until 2011, on the campus of Iowa State University inAmes. The event attracted both praise and criticism, with supporters noting that it raised funds for the Republican Party of Iowa and winnowed large fields of presidentialcandidates. Critics asserted that it catered to extremist candidates and put a financial squeeze on campaigns.[2][3]The poll itself was a poor bellwether for either the Iowa caucuses or the GOP nomination; only twice (Bob Dole in '95 and George W. Bush in '99) did the winner of the straw poll win either the Iowa caucuses or the Republican nomination the next year. On June 12, 2015, the Republican Party of Iowa announced that the straw poll will no longer be held

19th Amendment

The Nineteenth Amendment (Amendment XIX) to the United States Constitution prohibits any United States citizen to be denied the right to vote based on sex. It was ratified on August 18, 1920. The Constitution allows the states to determine the qualifications for voting, and until the 1910s most states disenfranchised women. The amendment was the culmination of the women's suffrage movement in the United States, which fought at both state and national levels to achieve the vote. It effectively overruled Minor v. Happersett, in which a unanimous Supreme Court ruled that the Fourteenth Amendment did not apply to women or give them a right to vote.

Dixiecrat

The States' Rights Democratic Party (usually called the Dixiecrats) was a short-lived segregationist political party in the United States in 1948. It originated as a breakaway faction of the Democratic Party in 1948, determined to protect what they portrayed as the southern way of life beset by an oppressive federal government, and supporters assumed control of the state Democratic parties in part or in full in several Southern states. The States' Rights Democratic Party opposed racial integration and wanted to retain Jim Crow laws and white supremacy in the face of possible federal intervention. Members were called Dixiecrats. (The term Dixiecrat is a portmanteau of Dixie, referring to the Southern United States, and Democrat.) The party did not run local or state candidates, and after the 1948 election its leaders generally returned to the Democratic Party. The Dixiecrats had little short-run impact on politics. However, they did have a long-term impact. The Dixiecrats began the weakening of the "Solid South" (the Democratic Party's total control of presidential elections in the South). The Dixiecrats did not expect to win the presidency outright; rather, they thought that if they could win enough Southern states then they would have a good chance of forcing the election into the House of Representatives, where they believed Southern bargaining power could determine the winner. To this end Dixiecrat leaders worked to have Thurmond-Wright declared the official Democratic ticket in Southern states. They succeeded in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. In other states, they were forced to run as a third-party ticket.

24th Amendment

The Twenty-fourth Amendment (Amendment XXIV) prohibits both Congress and the states from conditioning the right to vote in federal elections on payment of a poll tax or other types of tax. The amendment was proposed by Congress to the states on August 27, 1962, and was ratified by the states on January 23, 1964. Poll taxes appeared in southern states after Reconstruction as a measure to prevent African Americans from voting. At the ceremony in 1964 formalizing the 24th Amendment, President Lyndon Johnson noted that: "There can be no one too poor to vote." Thanks to the 24th Amendment, the right of all U.S. citizens to freely cast their votes has been secured.

26th Amendment

The Twenty-sixth Amendment (Amendment XXVI) to the United States Constitution barred the states or federal government from setting a voting age higher than eighteen. It was adopted in response to student activism against the Vietnam War and to partially overrule the Supreme Court's decision in Oregon v. Mitchell. It was adopted on July 1, 1971.

Matching Funds

The US Federal government's public campaign funding program established by the 1974 FECA in which the government matches funds to a point. It also limits campaign spending if you accept public funding. The gov't portion of the funds come from a voluntary $3 checkoff on US Income Tax form. In 08, Obama was notably the first major candidate to turn down matching funds because he believed he could raise more independently, which he did. McCain stuck with the public funding (he was a champion of public campaign financing - McCain-Feingold), and was thus at a disadvantage due to Obama's fundraising ability.

Trial Heat Model

The trial-heat model, developed by Jim Campbell, predicts the two-party popular vote based on the state of the economy (annualized GDP growth) and the incumbent party's candidate's polling (incumbent party candidate's two-party support in an early September Gallup poll). Across 6 recent elections, model only missed final results by 2.6%

Horserace

The way the media tends to cover campaigns, focusing on political gamesmanship, who's up and who's down, etc. rather than policy substance. This is especially relevant to the invisible primary -- the competition for notoriety, consultants, money, etc. -- which is a pure horserace about who is up and down in polls and who the media and donors deems a frontrunner. Candidates (like Scott Walker and Rick Perry in 2016) exit and enter the race during the invisible primary due to their standing in this horserace. Other source of significance: polling horserace determined who got on the prime-time debates early in the crowded GOP field during this invisible primary.

Median Voter Theory

Theorem that states in an election, candidates gravitate to the median voter's position, which is the middle in the general election, more to the extreme in primaries). This creates the rush towards the middle in the general election. Significance: Historically we have seen the median voter theorem's prediction in campaigns up until 2000, when candidates started staying closer to their position in the primary (more towards one size), and focus on energizing and turning out the base rather than rushing to the middle.

"There you go again"

There you go again" was a phrase spoken during the 1980 United States presidential election debate by Republican presidential candidate Governor Ronald Reagan to his Democratic opponent, incumbent President Jimmy Carter. Reagan used the line to thwart off attacks from Carter (specifically on Medicare), implying he was lying/misleading the public before correcting the record. "There you go again" emerged as a single defining phrase of the 1980 presidential election. The phrase was seen in news headlines, as a way to quickly refer to various presidential candidates' bringing certain issues up repeatedly during debates, or to Reagan himself. The significance of the phrase is its enduring place in the political lexicon. It is used in news coverage to describe candidates repeatedly bringing up certain issues/attacks (or headlines referring to Reagan himself). It was later used in more recent presidential elections. During the 2008 vice-presidential debate, Republican vice-presidential nominee, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, used the line on Democratic opponent Joe Biden. During the 2012 Presidential Election President Bill Clinton paraphrased the line after criticizing the policies of the Republican platform by saying 'There they go again'.

Idiosyncratic Campaign Influences

Things a campaign may not be readily prepared for: gaffes and blunders, newly emerging issues, crisis, or scandal

Naïve Forecasts

Things like "the taller candidate usually wins" that are not backed up by much legitimate science. Carlos said this doesn't really matter in the review session

Commission on Presidential Debates

This bipartisan commission establishes the way presidential election debates are run. The Commission negotiates who gets to debate, the location of the debate, the moderator, the debate format, etc. Every minute detail is planned in advance and approved by the Commission and outlined in a memorandum of understanding. In a historic move the Commission allowed Ross Perot to debate with Pres. Bush and Gov. Clinton in 1992. Significance: All this goes into the debate, yet the data seems to show debates don't matter all that much -- bump is fleeting.

Primary

a preliminary election to appoint delegates to a party conference or to select the candidates for a principal, especially presidential, election. Talk about importance of primaries in US system, how this process has evolved over time (primaries were not part of founding fathers vision, and did not have a legitimate role until post-1972)

Probability Sample

a sampling technique wherein the samples are gathered in a process that gives all the individuals in the population equal chances of being selected. Has to happen a lot now to account for people not having home phones, etc. Reflects how getting good polling is harder and more $ than ever before.

Super PAC

a type of independent political action committee which may raise unlimited sums of money from corporations, unions, and individuals but is not permitted to contribute to or coordinate directly with parties or candidates. -- Relates also to Citizens United decision, negative ads, how democratic election is, etc.

Poll Aggregators

a website that predicts upcoming U.S. federal elections by gathering and averaging pre-election polls published by others

Tracking Polls

a ​study in which the same ​small ​group of ​people are ​asked the same set of ​questions repeatedly over ​time to ​measure how their ​opinions, ​needs, etc. ​change.

Spring Interregnum

after nominee chosen and before convention: time where candidates tries to heal wounds within party

exit polls

an election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks whom the voter plans to vote for, an exit poll asks whom the voter actually voted for, and is therefore a good way to predict the outcome of the election, as in many elections the results may take hours to count. Exit polls are used to collect demographic data about voters and to find out why they voted as they did. Since actual votes are cast anonymously, polling is the only way of collecting this information.

Panel Surveys

an investigation of attitude changes using a constant set of people and comparing each individual's opinions at different times, can be costly and hard to track down

Push Polls

an ostensible opinion poll in which the true objective is to sway voters using loaded or manipulative questions. Ex: alleged that 2000 Bush campaign used this against McCain, they called and said "would you be less likely to support McCain if you know he fathered an illegitimate black child"

The War Room

he War Room is a 1993 American documentary film about Bill Clinton's campaign for President of the United States during the 1992 presidential election.The film follows James Carville and George Stephanopoulos at first during the New Hampshire Primary, and then mostly in Little Rock, Arkansas, at Clinton Campaign Headquarters. The film follows several key 1992 Campaign events, such as the Clinton Campaign's attack on "Read my lips: no new taxes", the Gennifer Flowers scandal, the New Hampshire primary upset, and others as they played out inside of the Clinton 1992 Campaign. The documentary uses many media headlines from the day, including media coverage of the election and other news stories, such as Ross Perot's presidential exit and re-entrance, among other topics.

Retrospective Voting Theory

holds that in presidential elections voters happy with the in-party's performance will support its candidate and when unhappy are more likely to support the opposition party's candidate. "Punish/reward" incumbent party in bad/good times.

Salient Issues

importance of issues for voters (may need to expand this)

Swift Boat Ads

in 2004 the organization "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" ran ads about Kerry, with the intent of discrediting his military record and attacking his subsequent antiwar activities. Shows impact negative ads can have on election, [even though the ads were taken off the air and later modified because they were misleading/inaccurate - i think?]

Emotive Content

in campaign ads brings about emotion in viewers

Winner-take-all System

in the general election, the candidate who wins the popular vote within the state wins all of the electoral votes for that states [except Nebraska and Maine]. In the primaries- the DNC decided all states would be proportional, but the RNC left this up to individual states, so some states decided to be winner take all in the repub primary

The Civil Rights Act of 1964

is a landmark piece of civil rights legislation in the United States that outlawed discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. It ended unequal application of voter registration requirements and racial segregation in schools, at the workplace → paved the way for legislation for others' rights

Daisy Ad

it was aired only once and once of the most controversial ads ever made -it was considered a huge factor in Johnson's landslide win against Goldwater in 1964 -using the prospect of nuclear war, as well as for the implication that Goldwater would start one, to frighten voters -*be able to provide a synopsis of the ad* -the ad was immediately pulled, but the point was made, appearing on the nightly news and on conversation programs in its entirety Anti-Goldwater ad by Lyndon Johnson. Goldwater was thought to be more extreme and mor eemotional, so during a time with the Soviets in the Cold War, LBJ showed him as a trigger-happy zealot. Safety of all Americans trumps all issues, news media covered it greatly free press.

Mobilization

mobilization of base key tenant of campaigns

Vote Stability

most people make candidate choice early on and stick with it (often voting on partisan lines before the candidate is even determined) → one of the arguments for why campaigns don't matter

Prediction Markets

now there are online prediction markets for election contests, a pretty reliable form of election forecasting because people are betting money and thus do their research.

Rose Garden Strategy

often used by incumbents, the strategy of appearing presidential, ex: doing things from the rose garden at the white house

Single-Issue Voting

people make voting decisions based on 1 issue, a form of litmus test; common examples are abortion, taxation, animal rights, environment, and gun politics. The National Rifle Association in the United States, which has only one specific interest, is an example of a single-issue group

Confirmation Bias

people seek out partisan media sources that confirm their beliefs

Rational Choice Theory

people vote due to cost benefit analysis -> V = [(B*p) - C] + D. Voting is a function of the benefits you get from voting, times the probability you will see those benefits from voting (i.e. the probability it makes a difference) minus the cost of voting plus D (civic duty). Doesn't make rational sense to vote unless you have a large D (haha).

Voter Turnout

percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election. In US voter turnout higher in presidential years. Significance: could relate to groundbreakers/obama turnout strategy... getting your supporters to show up to the polls for you is important. Also, I think he showed us a graph of voter turnout in the US by election cycle--turnout gets a bump when voting rights are expanded

Campaign Statements

proclamations made by the campaign about issues, staff, or anything else related to the election. Way of communicating your message to supporters and through the media. Also indirect (legal) coordination with Super PACs

Race Gap

race and candidate preference are correlated. Minorities prefer democrats. Black vote especially, Latinos are becoming more democratic recently. Minority share of the electorate is growing.

Southern Strategy

refers to a strategy by Republican Party candidates of gaining political support in the Southern United States by appealing to disaffected white Democratic voters. Example of exploitation of a wedge issue by a candidate (race, in this case) - Hillygus and Shields

Post-Convention Bounce

refers to a surge of support that U.S. presidential candidates in the Republican or Democratic party typically enjoy after the televised national convention of their party, small and doesn't last long: ~28 days.

internal validity

refers to how well an experiment is done, especially whether it avoids confounding (more than one possible independent variable [cause] acting at the same time)

Religion Gap

religious differences between Republican and Democratic voters. How religious you are/how often you go to church correlates with voting republican→ has larger impact than gender gap and class gap

RNC

republican national committee

Mimetic Responsiveness

response of government action to public opinion - policymakers would enact exactly what public opinion wanted

Post-Debate Bounce

similar to the convention bounce, it exists but doesn't last and is small, more important is how the performance is spun.