GOV312L Exam 2.1

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Problems with clarity of deterring Iranian nuclear bomb

-defining what violations would trigger military response -detecting violations

Problems with credibility of deterring Iranian nuclear bomb

-previous US behavior - tolerating Iran's nuclear program, Obama's nuclear deal - may lead Iran's leaders to doubt threat of military intervention Deterrence needs extra steps to be credible - resolute articulation and greater military presence

Who ended the Cold War?: Competing Explanations

1. The Remarkable and Unexpected End of the Cold War 2. US centric explanation for the end of the Cold War -Reagan's Foreign Policy; did Reagan pus the Soviets to reform? 3. Soviet-centric explanation for the end of the Cold War -Gorbachev's Foreign Policy; was Gorbachev the primary mover?

Order of presidents discussed and Major corresponding issues

1. Woodrow Wilson (1913-1921) 2. Ronald Reagan (1981-1989) 3. George W. Bush (2001-2009) 4. Barack Obama (2009-2017)

The Civil War in the United States threatened to harm economic growth in Great Britain by cutting its imports of cotton from the United States. A. True B. False

The Soviet Union sought to prevent the rise of German military power during the Cold War. A. True B. False

The U.S. political relationship with Saudi Arabia deteriorated under President Obama. A. True B. False

The origins of ISIS

Originally began as Al Qaeda in Iraq Predominantly Sunni, recruited from former Baathists displaced from Iraqi politics Strengthened via Iraqi civil war that followed toppling of Saddam Hussein Exploited civil war in Syria and withdrawal of American troops to seize territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014

What is the fundamental dilemma of politics as presented in lecture?

A government or organization that is powerful enough to enforce its directives is also strong enough to use this power in an abusive and predatory way

jus ad bellum - Just resort to war

A just war jas a just cause like self-defense A war is just only when armed conflicts is taken as a "last resort" and all other means have been exhausted A just war can only be undertaken by a legitimate authority - a state A just war requires a "right intention" (motivated by defense, not aggression) A just war has a reasonable change of success Proportionality: the ends of war much be proportional to the means of war

Which of the following describes issues associated with new entrants to the club of nuclear states?

A. New members tend to be poorer and have fewer nuclear weapons B. New members may not have the organizational capacity to control their nuclear arsenal C. The introduction of new nuclear members may set off a nuclear arms race

Why does war occur? Bargaining model of war

An assumption: all wars costly - means impose net costs on all of their participants - costs of killing people - economic costs when infrastructure of economy gets destroyed like, roads airports etc, - opportunity cost- lost opportunity for civilians to make money and work or wage incomes

Pavlovsky reading

Assessment of Russian domestic politics under Putin Failure to build efficient state bureaucracy that is responsive to political leadership Lost of Putin surrogates (curators) with significant autonomy to experiment; and potentially to make mistakes exs: difficulties of pulling back support for separatists in Ukraine Caution: what follows Putin?

According to lecture, what are two elements that define politics in general? A. Republicans and Democrats B. Authority and the allocation of scarce resources C. Money and power

During the Cold War, the United States relied on defensive strategies to protect American civilians from a Soviet nuclear attack. A. True B. False

The collapse of the Soviet Union helped reduce the risk of civil war around the world. A. True B. False

US participation in the Vietnam War was separated from its larger strategy of Containment. A. True B. False

According to lecture, what are two elements that define politics in general? A. Republicans and Democrats B. Authority and the allocation of scarce resources C. Money and power

B. Authority and the allocation of scarce resources

How can international intervention alter the course of civil wars? A) Help terminate the civil by providing a third party capable of enforcing a peace treaty through reassuring military groups that need to disarm B) Extend civil wars by periodically shifting the distribution of power among contending factions in the civil war C) Options A and B are both correct

C) Options A and B are both correct

What are some indicators of a pending power transition between the United States and China? A) Declining ratio of US military spending in relation to Chinese military spending B) Increasing size of the Chinese economy relative to the U.S. economy C) Options A and B are both correct D) Options A and B are both incorrect

C) Options A and B are both correct

Wars are not duration dependent, if war is caused by uncertainty and combat reduces uncertainty by revealing capabilities, then wars ought to become increasingly likely to end as they endure.

Cite a dilemma facing the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR theory.

According to lecture, political authority is made up of:

Coercion and Legitimacy

The commitment problem

Commitment problem: inability of side with rising power to promise or commit to abide by the terms of any settlement indefinitely in the future Organizations fight if they think the adversary will demand (in the future) revisions to terms of any pre-conflict settlement -fight rather than face a future of repeated concessions through extortion -concern that growing power will enable such demands for revision Often due to shifts in distribution of military power -creates expectations that agreement not self-enforcing, more powerful will demand more concessions in the future Ex: the challenge to securing peace in 2020 while the side that is growing weaker worries about what concessions it might have to make in 2025

The Nuclear Threat: From Defense to Deterrence

Conventional era - Pre nuclear bombs - conventional weapons Nuclear armed missiles - shift national security strategy of US from one based on defense to one based on deterrence Cannot shoot down incoming missiles so cannot defend population States can no longer rely on defensive capability to defend population

Which proposition has not been contradicted by any major historical cases?

Democracies almost never fight each other.

How did the Treaty of Versailles help cause WWII?

Destabilizing new (Weimar) democracy in Germany Activates conservatives in Germany to pursue revisionist foreign policy: retake lost territory Failure of treaty ratification in US begins withdrawal

Lukyanov reading

Deterioration of US-Russion relations from: Power shifts (Russian decline and then American decline/Russian resurgence) American violation of spirit of compromise with Gorbachev Expansion of Western institutions post Cold War -NATO -support for color revolutions that threatened Russian allies

How do dominance and reciprocity differ as solutions to collective goods problems?

Dominance relies on a power hierarchy acting as a central authority, whereas reciprocity operates without any central authority.

Sources of the commitment problem in civil war (II)

Ethnic imbalances: ethnicity as a device to mobilize groups Minority groups tempted to secede; majority groups fight to preserve unity and access to resources in entire territory Risk of tyranny of majority: how majority commit to respect minority rights; and not exclude minority groups from positions of power in gov't and economy?

In the Live and Let Live System of Trench Warfare, Axelrod found________.

Even in the trenches of WWI between enemy forces, cooperation could emerge and be sustained, as evidenced by the "live and let live system of trench warfare."

(T/F) During the Cold War, the United States provided foreign aid and intelligence only to fellow democracies.

False

According to lecture, all terrorists, from low-level foot soldiers to high-level leaders, engage in terrorism for the same reasons.

False

T/F: During the Cold War, the United States provided foreign aid and intelligence only to fellow democracies.

False

T/F: The terrorist's dilemma describes the inner conflict a terrorist goes through before conducting a suicide mission.

False

The United States relied on the British Empire to defend the Monroe Doctrine.

False

What does the Soviet centric explanation for the end of the Cold War entail?

Gorbachev's Foreign Policy; was Gorbachev the primary mover?

The Russian campaign to influence the 2016 election in the United States included which of the following elements:

Hack of computer systems of Democratic National Committee Public release of internal emails and communications from the Democratic Party during the campaign Coordinated social media campaign in the United States to aggravate existing political tensions in the United States and weaken support for Hillary Clinton

Recap: Central role of credibility to nuclear stability

In a nuclear world, peace and/or stability rests on threats to engage in violence, not actual use of military force Effectiveness of threats depends on credibility Examined three aspects of credibility problem -capabilities -importance of demonstrating (signaling) resolve -how to protect allies In a nuclear world, balance of resolve matters more than the balance of military power

Information problem leading to a lack of bargaining space that could allow for war-avoiding compromise. E.g. Hitler's underestimation of Soviet strength in 1941, if acknowledged, could have avoided war.

In the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR, what is the first cause of war?

RECAP: International intervention in civil war

Key: external actors like the United States as strategic participants even without intervening (moral hazard problem) Intervention can help to alleviate commitment problem and help end civil war by easing risks of disarmament But a potential paradox: sometimes robust expectations of intervention can make civilian targeting more likely through moral hazard problem Great powers influence domestic politics whether they intervene or not

Structuring the peace: How do great powers influence international politics?

Long wars fought among great powers tend to remake the structure of international politics by transforming the main political actors in the system -Structure as the agents (political organizations like states, empires, and international organizations) and the rules that guide their interactions (sovereignty, arms control agreements, trade liberalization) Many of these changes ratified or instituted at great power settlements that end these wars -exs: Napoleonic Wars (1815), WWI (1919), WWII (1945), and of Cold War (1990)

How to Demonstrate Credibility? Capabilities

Some weapons systems are vulnerable, could undermine deterrence if destroyed in first strike Less of a problem with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)

US: strong national interest in preventing proliferation

Part of this stems from reasons cited by Sagan Also, nuclear weapons great equalizer: blunts advantage of great powers (like the US) in conventional weapons Freezes territorial status quo for nuclear retaliation Takes military coercion or threat of regime change off the table for the US and other great powers -compare "Axis of Evil": Iran, Iraq, and North Korea -if don't have nuclear weapons (Iraq), get invaded; if do have nuclear weapons (N. Korea), get tough diplomacy -creates incentives to get nuclear weapons

Transition: From international war to civil war

Peaceful end of Cold War and absence of great power war appears to prompt a change in locus of war: from interstate to civil war Violence, death, and genocide from these conflicts of horrific scale -Great War of Africa, DRC, 1998, 5+ million dead -Rwanda, 1994, 800,000 dead -Bosnia, 1992-1995, 100,000 dead -Liberian civil wars, 200,000(?) dead Today's class: what role for the US in influencing the course of these conflicts?

Hegemony

Peace and stability in great power relations from military, political, and economic dominance by one state

Why did allied wartime cooperation so quickly collapse into the Cold War? Mutual suspicions

Philosophical underpinning: World Revolution US mistrust of the Soviet Union 1. Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact 2. negotiations over Eastern Europe 3. Soviet Army occupied Eastern Europe Philosophical underpinning: Capitalist imperialism Soviet mistrust of the US 1. history of Western Invasion 2. Western Intervention during Russian Revolution 3. Second Front Issue during WWII

The dilemma of counterterrorism centers on the balance between

Security and personal freedon

Unipolarity

Single state stands out like the USA after the Cold War more peaceful than bipolarity

Which of the following is NOT a typical consequence of great power war as defined in lecture?

Subsequent waging of proxy wars

Polarity influences coalition and alliance arrangements among great powers.

TRUUE

Which of the following is an international institution? (Module 19)

Sovereignty

US Foreign Policy in the 1920s: Was it isolationist?

Perhaps... Senate rejection of Versailles was a critical piece of evidence that US was withdrawing again from the world stage Republicans push tariffs up, segmenting American economy (problem for Germany: made difficult to generate export revenues to repay loans) Failure to grant war debt relief Tight monetary policy in 1928 halts credit to Europe (Germany) But... Heavy involvement in Dawes Plan stabilized reparations and European economy Preference for relying on economic (financial means) rather than military Dramatic success of Washington Naval Conference (1922) Tooze (2014), The Deluge: Republicans as "Triumphant nationalists," unilateralists and exceptionalists, not withdrawing from the world

The Central Problem of Credibility

Stability in a nuclear world depends on credibility of coercive threats i.e. does your adversary believe you will execute them? Credibility challenges: -Do you have the will (resolve) to execute these threats? -Do you have the capability to execute these threats? -Alliance complications: will you surrender your own cities to execute these threats?

Second Strike Capabilities

This means state can absorb a nuclear strike and still have nuclear weapons in its arsenal to fight back

How did the US contribute to the collapse of the economy and the Great Depression?

Tight monetary policy (pushes interest rates up) by Federal Reserve in 1928 halts loans to Germany (big implications for reparations) Smoot-Hawley (1929): high tariffs provoke reciprocal measures in the world and global trade collapses FDR (1933): takes US off the gold standard to offset deflation (foster inflation)

Endurance of American-led order?

Traditionally, great power war and their settlements are an important role in structuring international politics If great power was over, do broad outlines of the American system - created in 1945 and 1990 - survive indefinitely?

Why did allied wartime cooperation so quickly collapse into the Cold War? Individual leve,

Stalin's paranoia: Maxim Litvinov, former Soviet foreign minister, said in 1945: "If the West acceded to the current Soviet demands, it would be faced after a more or less short time with the next series of demands." Truman's anti-communism: Harry S. Truman on the second front issue: "If we see that Germany is winning we ought to help Russia and if Russia is winning we ought to help Germany, and that way let them kill as many as possible, although I don't want to see Hitler victorious under any circumstances. Neither of them thinks anything of their pledged word."

(T/F) The termination of civil wars is often inhibited by the risks associated with disarming after a peace agreement has been struck.

True

T/F: Political order is the patterns or regularities of social behavior that are induced or set by authority relationships or coercion.

True

The United States helped to alter the international system through the Versailles settlement in 1919 by supporting democracy and national self-determination.

True

Wars among great powers tend to remake the structure of the international system.

True

the end of the Cold War resembled the end of a great power war Why? (Even though it wasn't a great power war)

State/territorial change: Killed states (Soviet collapse, Yugoslavia collapse, Czechoslavakia split), created new states (Soviet successor states), re-established states (Germany reunited) Regime change (communist systems collapsed, democracies emerged) Distribution of military power changed (bipolar to unipolar world) Enforcement mechanisms changed (Warsaw Pact collapsed, NATO and EU expanded)

Why wars occur?

Two prominent answers to this question: Private Information Commitment Problem

What is the German problem?

Unified Germany in Europe both threatening and threatened -Concentration of economic, military, and political power in central Europe after consolidation of German empire under Bismark in 1871, solved before by German fragmentation/weakness German security problem: challenges associated with fighting a two front war i.e. being surrounded -creates incentives for territorial expansion for buffer zones Franco Polish Czech Russo security problem: German economic and military strength significant threat -they want territorial buffers At heart of WWI and WWII, and the Cold War: How to reach stable territorial and political equilibrium in Europe?

How does violence shape political order?

Political order: stable patterns or regularities of social behavior induced by authority relationships and/or coercion Critical role for coercion and violence in politics: violence (deployment or threat of it) often necessary for enforcement of directives; eg. Hobbes Leviathan, 6th Street on a weekend night at 2am but..

Reduction of uncertainty in terms of information about the balance of power, resolve and military effectiveness.

What can combat be used for in the bargaining model?

Vexing issues and conflicts such as Israel-Palestine and nuclear proliferation.

What can the BARGAINING MODEL be used to offer better insights into?

If 2 sides could agree on the imposition of costs would cross one side's threshold, than they can reach a bargain.

What do newer bargaining models pose regarding the imposition of costs?

That most conflict situations are essentially bargaining situations, 1960.

What does Thomas Schelling state and when?

1. Disagreements over military capabilities. 2. Concerns over credible commitments.

What does the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR allow insight into? Identify 2 overlooked factors.

Scarce goods such as: border placement, government composition or control of natural resources.

What does the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR view international conflicts as disputes over?

1. Actors cannot achieve their desired goals simultaneously. Example: Neither India nor Pakistan can both control Kashmir.

Why can international politics be described as the "allocation of scarce resources"?

What changes with the end of the Cold War?

Post 1964: Cold War moves out of Europe and into periphery -both US and Soviet Union support many autocratic regimes with foreign aid and military transfers End of Cold War brings end of American and Soviet support for these regimes -absence of foreign support and diminished expectation of great power intervention creates local incentives to challenge their rule Internal collapse of Soviet Union, prompted in part by nationalism, creates many new states with mixed ethnic composition

Russia as "loser" of the Cold War

Post-communist Russia as a "defeated" country after the Cold War Pose-communist Russian "losses" : -territory - Soviet Union becomes 15 newly independent states -empire - loss of hegemony in Eastern Europe -superpower status and influence

Sources of the commitment problem in civil war (III)

Power imbalance along economic lines -income inequality -state-owned resources Commitment problem: poor majority cannot commit not to seize assets of wealth minority once in power through nationalization or taxation Wealthy minority sides with military, gov't; supports repression exs: -Venezuela under Chavez -oil in Iraq

3RD Sources of the commitment problem in civil war

Power imbalance along economic lines INCOME INEQUALITY ----Income inequality This often occurs when economy depends on natural resources like oil State-owned resources - Gov can nationalize these resources and only give them out to narrow group of political supporters Income inequality can activate grievances and a commitment problem that makes civil conflict more likely

How do we get from 9/11 to the war in Afghanistan?

Pretty straightforward, Pres. Bush and advisers felt at war right away, doing nothing not seriously discussed Huge decision by Bush on night of 9/11: no discrimination between terrorists and states that harbor them -commitment to broaden war against states and non-state actors: decision of Bush, Rice, K. Hughes and speechwriters (Gerson); key national security players left out -quickly determined to strike Al Qaeda, given sanctuary in southern Afghanistan by Taliban in return for substantial financial support Tremendous pressure on military and CIA to be ready ASAP, concerns about breakdown in order if another attack before striking back -Bush addresses Congress 9/20, addresses nation announcing commencement of air strikes on 10/7

In singe-play prisoner's dilemma, mutual defection (DD) is the Nash equilibrium outcome. The Nash equilibrium is defined as:

an outcome where neither party would go back and change his or her choice

Nuclear proliferation: stabilizing or destabilizing?

Proliferation generally discussed in horizontal terms i.e. more countries getting the bomb -sometimes vertical (nuclear states getting bigger stockpiles) Proliferation pessimism: more states with nuclear weapons means higher risk of nuclear war, nuclear accidents Proliferation optimism: because costs of war so high in nuclear world, nuclear weapons stabilizing (meaning less countries would be able to afford to go to war?)

Simon and Stevenson, The End of Pax Americana READING

Promoting Restraint or Offshore balancing - the USA should pullback and not undertake a new extended military intervention in the future Should not increase military footprints in region - the US should focus on promoting regional stability this means giving up on political liberalization and support for democracy the authors would argue that the usa should give up goal of getting Assad out IN SYRIA- Peace settlement is unlikely to occur

How to Demonstrate Credibility? Demonstrating Resolve with Irrevocable Commitments

Public statements in democracies that would be politically costly to reverse the threat that leaves something to chance so basically to demonstrate state credibility (possibly talking about the deterrence of Iranian nukes) they demonstrate the resolve with irrevocable commitments by making public democratic statements that are risky in order to not leave anything up to chance

Reagan Foreign Policy

Reagan Foreign Policy I - Confrontation 1. Rhetoric - Renewed Confrontation 2. Arms Buildup 3. Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) 4. The Reagan Doctrine Reagan Foreign Policy II - Negotiation 1. Cooling the Rhetoric, Embracing Soviet Reform 2. Arms Control

What does the US centric explanation of the end of the Cold War entail?

Reagan's Foreign Policy; did Reagan push the Soviets to reform?

How can liberal theories of international relations be distinguished from realism?

Realists see the rules of international relations as timeless and unchanging, whereas liberal theorists see the rules of international relations as evolving incrementally.

Why do nuclear states and the international community want to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons?

Recent proliferators have fewer nukes and less likely to possess secure, second strike capabilities This would undermine their ability to maintain stable relations with other military powers because they lack MAD Domestic instability of nuclear proliferators increases chances of accidents, spread to terrorist groups Risk of regional nuclear arms races Nuclear weapons and changes to the regional and international status quo - They are the great equalizer they raise power of much weaker states and raise the hegemon

What are the two requirements of deterrence against an Iranian nuclear bomb?

clarity and credibility

Treaty of Versailles (1919): Reparations

Reparations: German payments to France, Great Britain, and Belgium for costs of war -device to ensure German compliance, limit economic growth and redirect any surplus revenues away from army and toward Allies -huge fiscal implications: politically difficult for German gov't to impose new taxes on citizens (who just suffered defeat and costs of war) to fund transfers to foreigners -stable reparations system does not emerge until 1924 but only lasts until 1928, dependent on American loans to Germany -Cycle of credit: Reparations linked to British and French war debts to US Importance of US to settlement: -US loans propping up reparations system -Wilson acquiesces in harsh peace on Germany, particularly with respect to territorial acquisitions that did not confirm to principle of self-determination to protect League of Nations

Madelbaum, How to Prevent and Iranian Nuclear Bomb cont.

Requirements of Deterrence against an Iranian nuclear bomb: Requires clarity and credibility Problems with clarity -defining what violation would trigger military response -detecting violations Problems with credibility -previous US behavior - tolerating Iran's nuclear program, Obama's nuclear deal - may lead Iran's leaders to doubt threat of military intervention Deterrence needs extra steps to be credible - resolute articulation and greater military presence

Hegemonic Stability Theory and the collective action problem

Review: public goods and free rider problem -public goods as nonexcludable and nonrivalrous -undersupplied in voluntary associations and in markets -domestic examples: roads, national defense, legal infrastructure, clean air and water

Revisionist foreign policy

Revisionist state is a term from Power Transition Theory within the wider field of international relations. It is used to describe states. The term assumes a direct correlation between a state's hegemony, both political and economic, and its standing as either a status quo state or a revisionist state. The Treaty of Versailles activated conservatives in Germany to pursue revisionist foreign policy -this is one of the factors contributing to WWII

provocation definition

goading the adversary into conflict

"The free-for-all in Syria"

graphic

Although neoliberals recognize that states are the main actors in international relations, they emphasize that ________ are becoming increasingly important.

international organizations

The two major subfields of the study of international relations are __________.

international security and international political economy

what does jus post bellum mean

justice after war

hegemony definition

leadership or dominance, especially by one country or social group over others

Although realism is a simple theory that correctly identifies some very important concepts in international relations, it suffers from the problem of not being ______________

logically consistent

Lend Lease Act definition

material and services supplied by the US to its allies during WWII US as an arsenal for democracy

In the Module 4 lecture on the Cuban Missile Crisis, the research of Graham Allison is highlighted to show three different theories of state behavior. Theses are: Rational actor, bureaucratic politics, and _____________

organizational process

In the module 2 lecture, a one word summary of realism is_______

power

Although soldier in the trenches appreciated the "live and let live system" of trench warfare, the high command did not. It was the policy/requirement of __________ that is thought to be most responsible for the end of the live and let live system.

raids

The Marshall Plan was a policy designed to __________.

rebuild European economies

Extended deterrence

refers to instances where a country issues a retaliatory threat to protect other countries—allies or countries deemed to be vital national security interests—from prospective aggression by a third party

political order definition

stable patterns or regularities of social behavior induced by authority relationships and/or coercion

Predation

the forcible redistribution of resources (as armed robbery by a political organization) - coercion dilemma

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) can help to promote peace among states that possess nuclear weapons by raising the costs of starting a war to unacceptable levels. T/F

true

President Eisenhower threatened nuclear strikes to contain and prevent small, regional conflicts.

true

The Sinatra Doctrine

"Sinatra Doctrine" was the name that the Soviet gov't of Gorbachev used jokingly to describe its policy of allowing neighboring Warsaw Pact (Soviet Union satellite) states to determine their own internal affairs

The conditions for a ticking time bomb scenario include:

(All of the Above) - A known terrorist is captured - A terrorist attack is imminent - The captured terrorist has information that could prevent an attack

According to lecture, which of the following was justification that the Bush administration cited for invading Iraq in 2003?

(All of the Above) - By bringing democracy to Iraq, the US could help democratize the entire region and thereby bring stability - Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction - Iraq was part of the Axis of Evil and a major enemy of the United States

The module's reading defines war as:

- Competitive, violent and political - Between multiple organized participants - Waged for some political goal

Which of the following statements is correct about the views of the United States in the world between 2002 and 2017?

- Global public opinion of the United States varies widely based on region. - The decline in global opinion of the United States was not correlated with the Bush administration. - The U.S. war on terror led to an increase in favorability ratings among virtually all countries surveyed. - NOT THIS ANSWER Favorability ratings of the United States continued to increase throughout the Obama administration.

US and Western Wins/ gains after the cold war

- Military hegemony over Eastern Europe Expansion of NATO - Economic hegemony - Expansion of European Union - Ideological hegemony - Ascendance of democracy - Unipolarity - Unrivaled US power around the world

Soviet Union Losses after the Cold war

- Territory - 15 new independent states emerged after the collapse - Empire - lost hegemonic control over eastern Europe - Superpower Status and Influence - Lose of ideology and national identity

According to the Krauthammer reading:

- There is a moral distinction between soldiers who are legitimate combatants and thus should never be tortured and terrorists who do not deserve similar protections because they do not follow the rules of war.

In the Module 4 lecture on the Cuban Missile Crisis, the unwillingness of the Navy to move the quarantine (blockade) of Cuba closer to the island was used as evidence to illustrate how ____________ affect(s) foreign policy

- standard operating procedures - interests - NOT THIS ANSWER rationality - power

Although we often think of power as "getting others to do what they otherwise would not do" in practice this definition is often not used because it ____________

- tends to lead to tautological answers - NOT THIS ANSWER all of the responses are correct - is inaccurate - is incomplete

According to the lecture for module 4, The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 can be used to show ______________

- that nuclear weapons are bad - NOT THIS ANSWER that states are rational - that bureaucracies can affect the foreign policies of states - that the realists are correct: power determines the behavior of states

According to lecture, political authority is made up of:

-Coercion -Legitimacy

What are sources of Great Power Peace

-Economic independence and changing value of territory - Globalization has reduced imperative to expand by equalizing access to economic resources of territory EXAMPLE US-China relations Today states get rich through comparative advantage - in which their economies specialize in production of goods that are cheap to produce more expensive abroad- these developments changes the value of territory

An Internationalized Civil War what countries are involved? The Commitment Problem in the Syrian War

Russia: supports Assad and Syrian government, naval base, fights ISIS Iran: supports Assad and Syrian government, establishing bases, fights ISIS Iraq: supports Assad United States: supports rebels, fights ISIS, support YPG Syrian Kurds (YPG): fights ISIS, now holds territory in North Turkey: supports Syrian rebels, wants to move YPG out of northern Syria - to take that land, conflict with US over status of YPG - the US is blocking turkish military from taking YPG land Israel: bombing raids targeting military convoys to Hezbollah, targeting Iranian operations

proportionality and just war

-the ends of war must be proportional to the means of war; the ends being sought must be proportional to the means being used; this means like you aren't going to drop a nuke just for a country to stop polluting -how much force is morally acceptable? is anything that weakens the enemy, and can aid one's victory acceptable? or are there certain actions that are off limits even in wartime? most societies have agreed there are atrocities that should be avoided in wartime

Why do some non-nuclear states pursue nuclear weapons and others do not?

Security States pursue Nucs if they feel their national security is at risk (you can understand North Korea, Great Britain, France etc) Domestic politics Competition between military bureaucracies can influence whether and how states develop nuc weapons International norms They can dissuade states that face strong security threats from pursuing Nucs-

Factors behind a non-nuclear state's decision on whether or not to pursue nuclear weapons include:

Security against external actors in the international system. Domestic pressure from interest groups. International norms of non-proliferation

discrimination and just war

-there are legitimate and illegitimate targets of war; must be able to discriminate between combatants and non-combatants, not permissible to kill those not engaged in fighting

What was containment easier in Europe than in the Third World? Advantages of Containment in Europe

1. Acceptance of US Involvement 2. Immediacy of External Soviet Threat 3. Political, Cultural, and Historical Ties

Causes and Implication of the Truman Doctrine

1. Diminished Power of Great Britain causes power vacuum 2. Established Anti-Communism as Basis of American foreign policy 3. Establishing American Global Leadership 4. Set Precedent of US Intervention 5. Introduced Seeds of Domino Theory

Marshall Plan and Containment

1. Economic Dislocation and Extremism 2. Curbing Domestic Attraction to Communism 3. Building on US Economic Power 4. Aftermath of Marshall Plan A series of crises favoring USSR

3 sources of Great Power peace

1. Economic independence and changing value of territory - Globalization has reduced imperative to expand by equalizing access to economic resources of territory 2. Nuclear Deterrence. Second Strike Capabilities make military invasion of another great power extremely less likely 3. May fight proxy wars (Like Vietnam) but avoid direct confrontation 4. Still compete but limited (Ukraine) Unipolarity-

(T/F) Which of the following were cited as a cause of the peace among democracies? (Module 20)

1. Elections 2. Institutional checks and balances 3. Shared democratic identity with other democratic regimes

Gorbachev, New Thinking, and the end of hegemony in Eastern Europe

1. Gorbachev as crucial "first mover" in end of the Cold War 2. Gorbachev's "New Thinking" - New ideas about security 3. Ending Hegemony in Eastern Europe -Sinatra Doctrine 4. Consequences of the Sinatra Doctrine -Enabling and accelerating the collapse of communism -Contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union a. Loss of empire and prestige b. Providing a model for ending communism in the USSR

Third World Interventions: Types of Third World Cold War Conflicts

1. Proxy Wars a. US - Korea, Vietnam b. Soviet Union - Afghanistan 2. Covert Actions a. Staging and/or Aiding Rebellions 3. Supporting Friendly Regimes a. Foreign and Military Aid b. US Support for Anti-Communist Dictatorships

Why was containment easier in Europe than in the Third World?: Problems for Containment in the Third World

1. Rejection of American intervention a. The West as an Imperial Power b. Communism as liberation ideology -Lenin's Theory of Imperialism 2. Domestic threat of communist insurgency a. Lack of modernization and democratization b. Problems with military intervention -Issue of political will -Unconventional Warfare

5 factors of how great powers influence international politics?

1. Set requirements for membership and redraw territorial boundaries: statehood and sovereignty 2. Regime type of new members (US promotes democracy after 1919, 1945, 1991) -Shape the distribution of regime types Example USA wanted to focus on Democracy - by preventing the expansion of Communism through the marshall plan after WWII 3. Distribute military power among states 4. Enforcement mechanisms (like reparations, League of Nations after wars) 5. After great power wars Division of territory among surviving great powers changes as well

Global Patterns of Terrorist Attacks - - 3 important points of global patterns of terrorist attacks

1. Terrorism has increased substantially over time 2. Despite increase over time the vast majority of terrorist attacks do not target foreign democracy 3. Most terrorist attacks are located close to their home country Most attacks happen outside of western democracies - most of them happen in concentrated areas like Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan - Located in countries that have civil conflicts smaller governments - but closer to their home 86% of ISIS terrorist attacks have occurred in Iraq or Syria Same is true of other major terrorist organizations such as Boko Haram (Nigeria), the Taliban (Afghanistan), and Al Shabaab (Somalia and Kenya) Only ISIS-inspired attacks tend to target other countries but they involve a small number of the attacks and deaths inflicted by global terrorism

Issues related to Wilson

1. Woodrow Wilson (1913-1921): -Treaty of Versailles, didn't get it ratified, its contribution to WWII (1939) -Wilson makes concessions to Allies to preserve League of Nations; many trace WWII origins here -Allies (Wilson) demands democracy -Wilson acquiesces in harsh peace on Germany, particularly with respect to territorial acquisitions that did not confirm to principle of self-determination to protect League of Nations -USFP in 1920 a little isolationist relative to what the world needed at the time; mismatch between how far Wilson had taken the country since 1914 relative to new internationalist responsibilities and what the US public was willing to support -US influence subsequent international political order in 1919: national self determination (new states and anti-imperialism), support for democracy, collective security in League of Nations

Prewar Divisions in Syria

12% Allawites (ruling party, western part of country - ASSAD PARTY) 60% Sunni Arabs (live throughout the country) 9% Syrian Kurds (along northern border) 9% Arabic speaking Christians (Levantines, lived mostly just east of Allawites) Scores of other ethnic groups ranging up to 2% of total population

Issues related to Ronald Reagan

2. Ronald Reagan (1981-1989) -The Cold War in the Third World: Why was it harder to contain Soviet influence? Reagan, Gorbachev and the end of the Cold War -US explanation of the end of the Cold War; did Reagan's Foreign Policy push the Soviets to reform? -Reagan's Foreign Policy: (I) Confrontation 1.rhetoric - renewed confrontation 2. arms buildup 3. strategic defense initiative (SDI) 4. The Reagan Doctrine (II) Negotiation 1. cooling the rhetoric, embracing Soviet Reform 2. arms control He ended up implementing the Confrontation approach (I believe)

Issues related to George W. Bush (2001-2009)

3. George W. Bush (2001-2009) -Just War Theory: The Bush Administration declared: war has been transformed by terrorism but, the fight against terrorism was a "just war" -despite the transformation of war, the Bush Administration framed the US counter-terrorism in Afghanistan and elsewhere in Just War terms (just initiation and just conduct) -from 9/11 to war in Afghanistan: felt at war right away; huge decision on 9/11: no discrimination between terrorists and states that harbor them; commitment to broaden war against states and non-state actors (Bush, Rice, K. Hughes and Gerson); strike Al Qaeda -9/11 to Afghanistan to Iraq: Bush faces pressure from within administration to go to war against Iraq right after 9/11; orders Rumsfield on 11/21 to begin updating war plan for Iraq

Issues discussed related to Obama

4. Barack Obama (2009-2017) -Problems with credibility for deterring against Iranian nuclear bomb: previous US behavior - tolerating Iran's nuclear program, Obama's nuclear deal - may lead Iran's leaders to doubt threat of military intervention

According to Just War Theory, the 2001 war launched by the United States against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in retaliation for the attacks on 9/11 was just. A. True B. False

American sponsorship and support for NATO expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990's has harmed the current political relationship between Russia and the United States. A. True B. False

An intense arms race on land in Europe helped cause World War I. A. True B. False

Economic reasons, specifically the need to secure new export markets for American industry, helped spur American territorial expansion in the 1890's. A. True B. False

George Kennan described the Soviet threat as: A. Expansionary but cautious B. Conservative and wanting only a buffer zone of territory around it C. Easily manipulated by economic aid

International trade and globalization after 1945 have helped to support peace among the great powers. A. True B. False

Last Saturday, the Russian government voted in support of the UN Resolution demanding a ceasefire in the Syrian War. A. True B. False

Marshall Plan aid was designed partly to prevent the spread of Soviet influence in Europe. A. True B. False

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) can help to promote peace among states that possess nuclear weapons by raising the costs of starting a war to unacceptable levels. A. True B. False

Our readings for today suggest that American efforts to prevent civil wars in the Middle East could help reduce incidents of terrorism. A. True B. False

Some of the economic costs associated with US tariffs on aluminum and steel would fall on important US allies. A. True B. False

The Trump Administration argues that the 2001 Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) originally passed by Congress to fight Al Qaeda also provides legal justification for the current American military intervention in Syria. A. True B. False

The United States helped to alter the international system through the Versailles settlement in 1919 by supporting democracy and national self-determination. A. True B. False

The United States relied on the British Empire to defend the Monroe Doctrine. A. True B. False

The United States sought to protect its allies in Western Europe during the Cold War through extended deterrence. A. True B. False

The Versailles Treaty terminating World War I imposed significant reparations and territorial losses on Germany. A. True B. False

The War for American Independence helped trigger the French Revolution and a series of new wars in Europe. A. True B. False

The development of the railroad facilitated American territorial expansion westward in the nineteenth century. A. True B. False

The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence rests largely on the credibility of threats to impose unacceptable military, economic, and human costs on a target. A. True B. False

The international political order set up after World War II included an important economic component focused on facilitating globalization and cutting barriers to international trade. A. True B. False

The outcomes of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Berlin crises during the Cold War were linked. A. True B. False

The possession of nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence have helped support peace among the great powers after World War II. A. True B. False

The security dilemma suggests that North Korean efforts to build missiles capable of launching a nuclear attack on the United States could actually reduce North Korean security by provoking a military response from the United States. A. True B. False

Wars among great powers tend to remake the structure of the international system. A. True B. False

Which of the following was described in lecture as distinguishing terrorist groups from states? A. Terrorist groups typically have more limited goals than states B. Terrorist groups have more intimidating names than states do C. Terrorist groups are less educated overall than citizens in states D. All of the above

What is the fundamental dilemma of politics as presented in lecture?

A government or organization that is powerful enough to enforce its directives is also strong enough to use this power in an abusive and predatory way.

What is the coercion dilemma as presented in lecture?

A government or organization that is powerful enough to use this power in an abusive and predatory way

Nuclear deterrence

A strategy of deterrence tries to protect civilian population by using threats to launch a military strike rather than actually launching a military strike The cold war - both had weapons drawn - but knew if one striked then the other would equally strike - or strike harder States protect their people by threatening other states in a horrible way Hypothetical political gains were too little to bargain the lives of thousands possibly millions of people who would be in the direct impact of nuclear bombs National security through threats to use force rather than actual use of military force

Western expansion in the 1840s was promoted by:

A. An ideology of Manifest Destiny that asserted that America's western expansion was part of God's plan for the United States. B. Technological advances, particularly the railroad. C. The domestic politics of slavery.

Which European rival of Britain sent the greatest amount of advisers, naval support, and funds to the American colonies in their war of independence against Great Britain? A. France B. Russia C. Germany D. Spain

A. France

Which of the following was discussed as a source of the commitment problem in war?

A. Imbalances in ethnic or religious identity among groups within a society B. A shift in the balance of political power balance between contending groups, often prompted by some change in government C. Shifts in the internal distribution of income or wealth among groups within a society

Robert Dahl's "procedural minimal" preconditions for democracy include: (Module 20)

A. Individual civil liberties like freedom of speech. B. Universal adult suffrage (right to vote). C. Democratic sovereignty of elected bodies that possess real political power

According to Fareed Zakaria's argument as laid out in lecture, why did the US take so long to expand its territory after the Civil War? A. Institutional constraints, mainly Congress's strengthened role in foreign policy, prevented the executive branch from pursuing expansionist policies. B. Most members of the American government had little interest in territorial expansion outside of the United States. C. The European powers had already divided up the world into their own colonies.

A. Institutional constraints, mainly Congress's strengthened role in foreign policy, prevented the executive branch from pursuing expansionist policies.

According to lecture, how did the end of the Cold War affect the incidence of civil wars?

A. Many regimes lost great power support--attributable to the larger Cold War conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union. The absence of external support prompted dissent and internal challenges, some of which resulted in civil war. B. The dissolution of the Soviet Union created many new states, many of which were ethnically diverse. These ethnic differences often created political conflict over which ethnic groups would have more influence over the government in these new states. Sometimes this political conflict ultimately led to civil war.

The creation of international organizations provokes principle-agent tensions with their member states. What factors worsen this principle-agent relationship? (Module 19)

A. Multiple principals B. Agency slack C. Shirking

How are nuclear weapons distinguished from conventional weapons?

A. Nuclear weapons are capable of unleashing terrible destruction in a short period of time B. Nuclear weapons could change the primary targets of warfare to civilian populations C. Winners and losers of warfare including nuclear weapons are difficult to differentiate ALL OF THE ABOVE

Which of the following is/are (an) example(s) of the moral hazard problem?

A. People who drive notoriously safe cars (like Volvos) speed and drive recklessly because they believe the vehicle will still keep them safe in a crash. B. American banks make more loans to borrowers with bad credit believing that importance of the financial sector to the broader domestic economy will force the government to compensate banks (through a bailout) for significant losses from bad loans. C. People in their mid 20's who have health insurance are more likely to take up dangerous hobbies like mountain biking, white water rafting, or downhill skiing than those who do not.

Post-communist Russia, as the main successor state to the Soviet Union, suffered important "losses" in the aftermath of the Cold War including:

A. Territory that had historically been part of Russia since Tsarist times. B. Superpower status and corresponding influence over world affairs.

The alliance between the United States and the Soviet Union during World War II quickly collapsed and was replaced by an adversarial relationship and a Cold War because: A. The two countries had radically different political and economic systems with incompatible goals. B. The two countries, having enjoyed a long history of friendly relations, were thrust into roles as adversaries by competition over new consumer markets in Europe. C. President Truman's attempts to befriend Joseph Stalin were not reciprocated. D. Options A, B, and C are all correct.

A. The two countries had radically different political and economic systems with incompatible goals.

What does Abrams think of terrorist groups?

Abrams thinks that terrorist groups are not strategic "Terrorist groups do not display characteristics of rational cost-benefit analysis in their actions"

US as indispensable nation: world needs US military power BUT

Absent limits may create other countries resist US military intervention - worrying that it will be used to expand American Influence - thus the US faces a coercion dilemma any time it considers deploying military force outside its territorial borders

Smith and Stam propose that the more battles are fought, the more information is revealed, causing the expectations of two sides to converge, creating bargaining space.

According to the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR, why might wars not endure for long periods of time?

When thinking about the causes of war, what is the commitment problem?

Actors are unsure that an adversary has an incentive to honor in the future any deal constructed in the present.

jus post bellum- Justice after war

After war, victors should achieve the goals of war but not pursue vengeance Principles of discrimination and proportionality apply. Civilians should not be harmed. Punishments for the conquered should not be severe. Rights should be protected. The ultimate goal of a just war is to re-establish peace. That peace must be preferable to the peace that existed before the war.

Hegemonic Stability Theory: extensions and implications

Also a security variant: Policing the status quo: US regularly confronts attempts at revision with military force after 1945 -interwar lessons: US withdrawal from European order in 1920 leads to buck passing in Europe; weak efforts to contain Nazi Germany and, ultimately, war -public good as cooperative security system to preserve new European SQ -contributes to decision not to withdraw from Europe in 1945 US in Middle East post-9/11? Implications: provides theoretical foundations for claims associated with US as indispensable nation -if US doesn't fight ISIS, provide disaster relief, stabilize international economy, cut emissions to reduce greenhouse gases, then no one else will -or rather their contributions will not be significant enough to meet these challenges What happens when US declines? These goods undersupplied?

How did the German problem shape (cause) the Cold War in Europe cont.

American concerns: Would Soviets retake West Berlin? Invade Western Europe? -Berlin as important signal of American commitment to defend Western Europe Soviet concerns: Integrated in the West, would West Germany reconstitute economic and military power and attack Soviet Union? -Aggravated by Eisenhower willingness to rearm Germany, maybe even with nukes -Integrated W. Germany make American sphere stronger

US and West as "winners" of the Cold War

American/Western "gains" from the end of the Cold War: -military hegemony over Eastern Europe - expansion of NATO -economic hegemony - expansion of European Union -ideological hegemony - ascendance of democracy -unipolarity - unrivaled US power around the world Challenges maintaining the post-Cold War order

Bipolarity

Argued to be more peaceful and stable - only involves two great powers that stand out- like during the Cold War

Proliferation Optimism

Associated with Kenneth Waltz Nuclear weapons generate tremendous caution in a crisis, deterrence limits aggression Secure second strike capabilities fairly easy to achieve (can hide, use mobile launchers) -adversary can never be sure it will get them all in first strike, therefore don't attempt Helps to limit violence in wars, both states caution about escalating conflict because it might face nuclear retaliation States have strong incentives to maintain control of nukes

Proliferation Pessimism

Associated with Scott Sagan Recent proliferators fewer nukes and less likely to possess secure, second strike capabilities Organizational impediments within military over command and control -tradeoff between readiness (capability to launch quickly in a crisis) and safety: military more concerned about readiness; new proliferators less likely to have stable civilian control over military -risk of unauthorized or accidental use Period of vulnerability during stage of nuclear weapons development might heighten risk of preventive war ex: Israeli pressures on US for strike against Iran

According to lecture, what are two elements that define politics in general?

Authority and the allocation of scarce resources

In context of asymmetrical warfare (surprise attacks) with states, terrorist leaders may use attacks for 3 strategic reasons such as:

Avoiding direct conflict with states' militaries by attacking civilians Provoking an overreaction from an adversary Sabotaging potential peace negotiations

A state possesses secure second strike capabilities when all of its nuclear weapons can be destroyed in an initial preemptive strike by an adversary. A. True B. False

According to the logic presented in lecture, how does the possibility of intervention in a civil war by the United States change the dynamics of that war? A. Civil wars in the former colonies of the United States tend to be shorter and involve less death because the governments have such strong military power. B. In order to entice the US to intervene, the losing side may actually allow the civilian population to be made more vulnerable and cause a humanitarian crisis. C. Authoritarian dictators escalate violence more quickly than their democratic counterparts because they fear that the US will take the opportunity to intervene and bring about regime change. D. None of the above is true.

As discussed in lecture, John Ikenberry's critique of the 2003 Iraq war is based on the coercion dilemma wherein: A. It cost the US too much money B. It was a failure by the US to observe self-imposed limits on military power C. The US did not receive control of oil fields as expected D. The United Nations unanimously approved military action with the exception of Iraq

Gorbachev's New Thinking was designed to reestablish Soviet political and military dominance over Eastern Europe. A. True B. False

Saudi Arabia supports Iranian efforts in the Syrian War to ensure President Assad of Syria remains in power. A. True B. False

Tariffs help to reduce consumer prices. A. True B. False

The Mueller indictment of Friday, February 16 demonstrated collusion between Trump campaign officials and the Russian nationals who conducted a social media campaign to influence the 2016 election in the United States. A. True B. False

The United States entered World War I in August of 1914, shortly after it broke out in Europe. A. True B. False

The alliance between the United States and the Soviet Union during World War II quickly collapsed and was replaced by an adversarial relationship and a Cold War because: A. The two countries, having enjoyed a long history of friendly relations, were thrust into roles as adversaries by competition over new consumer markets in Europe. B. The two countries had radically different political and economic systems with incompatible goals. C. President Truman's attempts to befriend Joseph Stalin were not reciprocated. D. All of the above

The commitment problem is defined by uncertainty about the current distribution of power between two groups locked in a political dispute. One of the parties overestimates its military power and fails to make sufficient concessions to preserve peace. A. True B. False

Which of the following is NOT described as being an important political result of the end of World War I? A. The end of the multinational Russian, German, Austro-Hungarian, and Ottoman empires. B. The formation of the European Union. C. The championing of "self determination" by Woodrow Wilson, or the right of nations and peoples to establish their own countries.

According to lecture, what was the "German Problem?": A. The debate during the 1950's over whether or not the US should provide Germany with a nuclear weapon in order to deter Soviet aggression. B. The theory that a politically unified Germany disrupts stability in Europe because it threatens (and is threatened by) its neighbors. C. The disagreement within American leadership after the end of WWII regarding whether to allow German rearmament. D. Options A, B, and C are all incorrect.

B. The theory that a politically unified Germany disrupts stability in Europe because it threatens (and is threatened by) its neighbors.

Why does war occur?

Bargaining model of war -an assumption: all wars are costly -a puzzle: if all wars are costly, then why can't parties reach some peace settlement that would leave all participants better off than fighting? Explanations for why wars occur should focus on why states fail to reach and/or sustain this mutually beneficial settlement

The commitment problem refers to ___________

Because states have sovereignty, there is very little that actual "binds" them (commits them) to any agreement that they make.

Why was the cold war not a great power war?

Because there was no direct military conflict

Manifestations of the German problem in the Cold War

Berlin Crisis (1948) Berlin Crises (1958-1962) Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963) -Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace

War makes the state and war constructs the pattern of relations that constitute political order within states

Big wars help to determine which political entities are sovereign and in power

In summary; Bargaining Framework used to identify two common causes of war

Both explain outbreak of war in terms of the failure of both sides with conflicting political interests to reach some settlement of the issue in dispute Shift in military power Commitment Issue Private Information

How do we get from 9/11 to war in Afghanistan to war in Iraq?

Bush faces pressure from within administration to go to war against Iraq right away after 9/11 -Rumsfield raises possibility on Sept. 12 -Wolfowitz, 9/13, "ending states who sponsor terrorism" -orders Rumsfield on 11/21 to begin updating war plan for Iraq

What is terrorism?

Byford: What is terrorism? - Potential Defining Characteristics -non-state actors using violence -instilling terror - using force to intimidate -methods - suicide missions -targets - intentionally killing civilians -Tying Means and Goals

During the Trump administration: A. Relations between the United States and North Korea were in crisis in which the leaders of both countries threatened the other with nuclear annihilation. B. President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have developed a close personal relationship and have met directly to negotiate over North Korea's nuclear program. C. Both A and B are correct.

The dilemma of counterterrorism centers on the balance between A. Life and death B. Success and failure C. Security and personal freedom D. Cost and benefit

Which of the following describes issues associated with new entrants to the club of nuclear states? A. New members tend to be poorer and have fewer nuclear weapons B. New members may not have the organizational capacity to control their nuclear arsenal C. The introduction of new nuclear members may set off a nuclear arms race D. All of the above are true E. None of the above are true

George Kennan described the Soviet threat as: A. Weak and timid B. Conservative and wanting only a buffer zone of territory C. Expansionary but cautious D. Weak and timid

C. Expansionary but cautious

Credibility for a Nuclear attack to be carried out depends on capabilities and resolve

Capabilities - the means and ability to carry out the threat - States enhance capabilities by improving their weapons systems ----Examples: North Korean nuclear and missile tests - as NK test more powerful ballistic missile it demonstrated that it has significantly improved its capacity -Demonstrate military capacity to carry out threats. Resolve - the will to carry out the threat States enhance their resolve by managing risk during crises (i.e. brinkmanship)

Hegemonic Stability Theory and international trade

Central claim: Concentration of economic capacity or power in one state increases the likelihood that the international economic system will be open, therefore more international trade and economic growth for all states Why? Dominant state provides public goods that are necessary for international economy to flourish -market for distressed goods (maintain imports when no one else will) : US domestic markets open in '97 and '08 crises, not 1929 -provide currency for international trade to be conducted in (dollar) -provide access to credit (US Fed, 2008 crisis) -protect shipping (naval power important prerequisite)

Important attributes of initial campaign in Afghanistan

Challenge: difficult terrain, place where empires go to die (eg. Soviet Union) US allies with Northern Alliance, collection of groups in Northern Afghanistan fighting Taliban -insert CIA and special forces to coordinating coalition and hold it together with funding and weapons NATO invokes Article 5, attack on one is attack on all Convergence of great power interests: both China and Russia share anti-terror interests -illustrates convergence of national interests of all states, terrorism as a threat to their viability as organizational form

Contemporary US-China relations: Strong economic interests

China runs huge trade deficit with the US (Chinese exports to US greater than Chinese imports from US) -approx $336 billion (2015): US imports $498 billion, exports at $162 billion China relies on exports to generate economic growth; need to create jobs in cities to preserve stability in era of massive migration from countryside US imports financed via loans from China (Chinese central back buying mortgage backed securities and Treasury bonds) See strong foundation for common interests -US consumer helping Chinese gov't by creating Chinese jobs -Chinese gov't helps make US gov't deficit more sustainable

Contemporary China: Domestic foundations of Chinese grand strategy

China's grand strategy since 1979 driven by domestic imperative: create jobs to preserve regime and social stability -legitimacy of Communist Party no longer rely on ideology, but economic growth -but, exploding income inequality -kicking problem of Taiwan down the road Status quo oriented with respective to existing international order -settling 17 of 23 of territorial disputes since 1949 (except Taiwan); generally offer more territorial concessions -but.. more tension in maritime disputes -joining international organization (WTO); regional organization (ASEAN); cooperating with US to press North Korea; Asian financial crisis (1997-98) -aware that other country's view rise skeptically: threat to counterbalance after hardline responses to Taiwan 1995-96

International intervention in civil war

Civil war different from international war: one side has to disarm themself and then trust the state that they will be protected from any future retribution This is commitment problem: fear of one side not fulfilling peace obligations coupled with vulnerability of disarmament leads to continuation of war Intervention by a great power may help to alleviate commitment problem by overseeing and guaranteeing peace

Total War and Mutually Assured Destruction

Clauswitz and the concept of Total War -Mutually Assured Destruction Total war: "States would become the victims of war if weapons ever became so destructive that they placed at risk the purposes for which wars were being fought. Any resort to force, under such circumstances, could destroy what is was meany to defend." (Gaddis, p. 52) Churchill: "The new terror brings a certain element of equality in annihilation. Strange as it may seem, it is to the universality of potential destruction that I think we may look with hope and even confidence." (Gaddis, p. 65)

How did the German problem shape (cause) the Cold War in Europe?

Cold War in Europe driven by fundamentally different strategies to solve the German Problem American solution: partition, occupy, democratize West Germany and integrate it economically and militarily in Western alliance Soviet solution: partition, occupy, Communize East Germany and integrate it economically and militarily in Soviet-led bloc

How to demonstrate credibility? The challenges of protecting allies with extended deterrence

Cold War: US protects Western Europe from invasion by Soviets with nuclear unbrella -but... will US trade NYC to protect Paris? -if Soviets doubt credibility of that commitment they might invade; if French doubt credibility of that commitment, they might exit alliance and opt for neutrality Cold War solutions: -Tripwires: troops in West Berlin and along the border between North and South Korea -Eisenhower contemplates giving W. Germany nuclear weapons so they can deter Soviets on their own

Commitment Prob Cont.d

Commitment problems and the wars that follow them stem from shifts in the distribution of power between contending sides in a dispute In the commitment problem the 2 sides can identify a fair deal in the present time/year - however their fears that such a deal will not be sustainable into the future leads them to fight a war in the present

Why did allied wartime cooperation so quickly collapse into the Cold War? Competing Goals

Competing Goals: US goals: Universal and Ambiguous a. maintain US International Engagement b. promote democracy, free and fair elections c. promote free and open markets d. United Nations and Collective Security Soviet goals: Concrete and Territorial a. Buffer zone b. Sphere of influence Joseph Stalin: "This war is not as in the past; whoever occupies a territory also imposes on it his own social system. Everyone imposes his own system as far as his army can reach. It cannot be otherwise."

RECAP: US FP in the 1920s as isolationist?

Conventional wisdom: probably yes Most recent wave of historical research: No Isolationists relative to 1796? Definitely not. Isolationists relative to what the world NEEDED in 1920, maybe a little. Larger implication: Mismatch between how far Wilson had taken the country since 1914 relative to new internationalist responsibilities and what the US public was willing to support in 1920 -this mismatch would have serious negative consequences for international political stability (Tooze 2014) -failure of American leadership/hegemony

Covert actions definition

Covert action is one of many foreign policy tools used by policymakers to advance national interests. Used in select international efforts, covert action encompasses a broad range of activities outside the operations of traditional intelligence collection. Covert Actions are one of the types of Third World Cold War conflicts

Cyberwar

Create social media accounts to look like Americans; organize campaign rallies; drive traffic to anti-Clinton sites and posts; identity theft to hack organization controlled social media accounts

The end of the cold war and the absence of great powers wars has done what?

Created more civil wars than interstate wars the killing is more outrageous than it was ever in the cold war - Great War of Africa, DRC, 1998-, 5+ million dead Rwanda, 1994, 800,000 dead Bosnia, 1992-1995, 100,000 dead Liberian civil wars, 200,000(?) dead

According to lecture, political authority is made up of: A. coercion B. legitimacy C. identity D. Options A and B are both correct E. Options B and C are both correct

How are nuclear weapons distinguished from conventional weapons? A. Nuclear weapons are capable of unleashing terrible destruction in a short period of time B. Nuclear weapons could change the primary targets of warfare to civilian populations C. Winners and losers of warfare including nuclear weapons are difficult to differentiate D. All of the above

Post-communist Russia, as the main successor state to the Soviet Union, suffered important "losses" in the aftermath of the Cold War including: A. Territory that had historically been part of Russia since Tsarist times. B. Superpower status and corresponding influence over world affairs. C. Its permanent seat on the Security Council of the United Nations D. Options A and B are both correct

President Trump's reasons for taking a confrontational approach on trade with other countries like China include: A. The argument that other countries have taken advantage of the United States by engaging in unfair trading practices that have produced large trade deficits in which the U.S. imports more goods from foreign countries than it exports. B. The argument that free trade policies have led to the movement of American manufacturing jobs to other countries. C. The argument that the Chinese government has engaged in unfair trading practices that have violated the intellectual property rights of American companies and inventors. D. All of the above

Russia's hoped to achieve which of the following goals from its interference in the 2016 election: A. To deepen domestic political conflict along racial, partisan, religious, and regional lines. B. To undermine Hillary Clinton's candidacy and her legitimacy in office if she won the election. C. To help Donald Trump win the presidential election. D. Options A, B, and C are all correct

The Russian campaign to influence the 2016 election in the United States included which of the following elements: A. Hack of computer systems of Democratic National Committee B. Public release of internal emails and communications from the Democratic Party during the campaign C. Coordinated social media campaign in the United States to aggravate existing political tensions in the United States and weaken support for Hillary Clinton D. Options A, B, and C are all correct

The reasons that North Korea has pursued a nuclear weapons program include: A. The perception that the United States and its allies want a change in regime in North Korea. B. The perception that nuclear weapons are essential to the regime's survival. C. Historical examples in which the United States toppled Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq when it suspected Iraq to be developing nuclear weapons and Muammar Gaddafi, leader of Libya, who was killed by rebels backed by the United States and its allies after negotiating to give up his nuclear weapons program. D. All of the above

Western expansion in the 1840s was promoted by: A. An ideology of Manifest Destiny that asserted that America's western expansion was part of God's plan for the United States. B. Technological advances, particularly the railroad. C. The domestic politics of slavery. D. Options A, B, and C are all correct.

When a tariff is applied to imported goods from a foreign country like China: A. The tariff is paid by importers or wholesalers when the good crosses into the United States. B. The added cost of the tariff is passed on to American consumers who have to pay higher prices for goods produced in China. C. The tariff is paid by the government of the foreign country, in this case the Chinese government, which increases revenue into the U.S. treasury. D. Both A and B are correct.

Which of the following is/are (an) example(s) of the moral hazard problem? A. People who drive notoriously safe cars (like Volvos) speed and drive recklessly because they believe the vehicle will still keep them safe in a crash. B. American banks make more loans to borrowers with bad credit believing that importance of the financial sector to the broader domestic economy will force the government to compensate banks (through a bailout) for significant losses from bad loans. C. People in their mid 20's who have health insurance are more likely to take up dangerous hobbies like mountain biking, white water rafting, or downhill skiing than those who do not. D. All of these are examples of the moral hazard problem.

Which of the following was/were discussed as linked to the origins of World War II? A. The Great Depression B. American political, economic, and military withdrawal from Europe after the Great Depression began C. The collapse of the Weimar democracy in Germany D. Options A, B, and C are all correct

Which of the following were part of the international order that was remade after World War II in the period from 1945 to 1950? A. International Monetary Fund B. United Nations C. North Atlantic Treaty Organization D. Options A, B, and C are all correct

Which wars were discussed in class as helping to establish the political independence of the American colonies from the British Empire? A. War of American Independence (or American Revolutionary War) B. Seven Years War C. War of 1812 D. Options A and B are both correct E. Options A, B, and C are all correct

Which of the following is an example of public goods that an international hegemon helps to provide? A) A currency that acts as a medium of exchange in international trade B) Safe shipping lines C) A market for distressed goods in the global economy D) All of the above

D) All of the above

Which of the following describes issues associated with new entrants to the club of nuclear states? A) New members tend to be poorer and have fewer nuclear weapons B) New members may not have the organizational capacity to control their nuclear arsenal C) The introduction of new nuclear members may set off a nuclear arms race D) All of the above are true E) None of the above are true

D) All of the above are true

According to lecture, political authority is made up of: A) Coercion B)Legitimacy C)Identity D) Options A and B are both correct

D) Options A and B are both correct

Post-communist Russia, as the main successor state to the Soviet Union, suffered important "losses" in the aftermath of the Cold War including: A) Territory that had historically been part of Russia since Tsarist times B) Superpower status and corresponding influence over world affairs C) Its permanent seat on the Security Council of the United States D) Options A and B are both correct

D) Options A and B are both correct

Russia's hoped to achieve which of the following goals from its interference in the 2016 election: A) To deepen domestic political conflict along racial, partisan, religious, and regional lines B) To undermine Hilary Clinton's candidacy and her legitimacy in office if she won the election C) To help Donald Trump win the presidential election D) Option A,B, and C are all correct

D) Options A, B and C are all correct

Which is NOT part of the nuclear triad mentioned in this module's reading? A) Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) B) Strategic bombers C) Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) D) Tank-launched ballistic missiles (TLBCs)

D) Tank-launched ballistic missiles (TLBCs)

D. All of the above

D. All of these are examples of the moral hazard problem.

According to lecture, political authority is made up of: A. Coercion B. Legitimacy C. Identity D. Options A and B are both correct E. Options B and C are both correct

D. Options A and B are both correct

Post-communist Russia, as the main successor state to the Soviet Union, suffered important "losses" after the end of the Cold War including: A. Territory that had historically been part of Russia since Tsarist times. B. Superpower status and corresponding influence over world affairs. C. Its permanent seat on the Security Council of the United Nations D. Options A and B are both correct

D. Options A and B are both correct

D. Options A, B, and C are all correct

Western expansion in the 1840s was promoted by: A. An ideology of Manifest Destiny that asserted that America's western expansion was part of God's plan for the United States. B. Technological advances, particularly the railroad C. The domestic politics of slavery D. Options A, B, and C are all correct

D. Options A, B, and C are all correct

The rise of the populist candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, as a front-runner in Brazil's presidential election has been attributed to: A. High crime rates. B. A corruption scandal that implicated many of the country's major politicians. C. A severe economic recession. D. Options A, B, and C are all correct.

D. Options A, B, and C are all correct.

Which of the following is NOT a typical consequence of great power war as defined in lecture? A. Reshaping of territories B. Changes of political regime within states C. Redistribution of military power D. Subsequent waging of proxy wars

D. Subsequent waging of proxy wars

Which is NOT part of the nuclear triad mentioned in this module's reading? A. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) B. Strategic bombers C. Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) D. Tank-launched ballistic missiles (TLBCs)

D. Tank-launched ballistic missiles (TLBCs)

Which of the following was/were discussed as linked to the origins of World War II? A.The Great Depression B.American political, economic, and military withdrawal from Europe after the Great Depression began C.The collapse of the Weimar democracy in Germany D.Options A, B, and C are all correct

D.Options A, B, and C are all correct

Combat is a violent clash between at least 2 politically distinct groups organised to wield force.

Define combat

Just War Theory in the age of terrorism: Discussion of Crawford Reading (II)

Despite the transformation of war the Bush Administration: Framed the US counter-terrorism in Afghanistan and elsewhere in Just War terms -just initiation: pre-emptive attacks were self'defense; attack on Afghanistan was last resort -just conduct: avoided civilian casualties and Islam per se is not the enemy 12 problems for Just War Theory and terrorism/counter-terrorism: Perennial Concerns: What is self-defense? What justifies pre-emption? What is the last resort against terrorists? Don't oth sides feel they are fighting "just wars"? Novel Concerns: How to define terrorism? How to limit terrorism/counter-terrorism war? Can war on terrorism be successful? How can counter-terrorism employ discrimination? How is counter-terrorism proportional? Outside Just War Theory: How does Just War Theory matter without strong international law? Why not concentrate on avoiding war altogether?

The Concept of Deterrence

Deterrence - Definition Deterrence: to discourage attack through the threat of retaliation. "If you attack me, I may not be able to prevent your attack, but I can retaliate so powerfully that you will not want to attack in the first place." (Nye, p.123)

Violence and international political order: implications for the US cont.

Dilemma for the US: American military power necessary to defeat Hitler, but how to constrain American capacity for violence after 1945? -Competition with Soviet Union -Ikenberry: bind American military power through institutions external: democracy internal: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Dangerous legacy of 2003: Allies and UN say no to Iraq, but US does it anyway. America unbound? American power still legitimate outside of US? US as indispensable nation: world needs US military power (eg. ISIS in Middle East), but is exercise of US military power sufficiently regulated?

Can there be a Just War?

Dilemma: how can an event as destructive as war be "just"? Is killing ever ethically permissible? Realism, Idealism, Pacifism -realism: morality should not be considered an international relations -idealism: morality must be taken into consideration but may require the use of force for just ends -pacifism: killing is never justified; murder, maiming, and destruction is always wrong

jus in bello - Just conduct in war

Discrimination: There are legitimate and illegitimate targets of war. Must be able to discriminate between combatants and non-combatants. Not permissible to kill those not engaged in fighting. Proportionality: How much force is morally acceptable? Is anything that weakens the enemy, and can aid one's victory, acceptable? Or are there certain actions that are off limits even in wartime? Most societies have agreed there are atrocities that should be avoided in wartime

Byman, Beyond Counterterrorism

Distinguishing among terrorist groups Which ones hold territory? Connection between civil war and terrorism -counterterrorism often means intervening in civil war Statebuilding to prevent civil war and terrorism

Factors behind a non-nuclear state's decision on whether or not to pursue nuclear weapons include: A. Security against external actors in the international system B. Domestic pressure from interest groups C. International norms of non-proliferation D. Answers A and B are both correct E. Answers A, B and C are all correct

The module's reading defines war as: A. Competitive, violent and political B. Between multiple organized participants C. Waged for some political goal D. Options A and B are both correct E. Options A, B and C are all correct

Sources of great power peace

Economic interdependence and changing value of territory Globalization has reduced imperative to expand by equalizing access to economic resources of territory Example: US-China relations Nuclear deterrence: secure second strike capabilities make military invasion of another great power extremely less likely -frozen territorial boundaries among great powers May fight proxy wars (eg. Vietnam), but avoid direct confrontation Still compete (eg. Ukraine), but limited Unipolarity: United States so far ahead in military terms than nearest competitor that it reduces incentives to challenge US can see it coming and adjust

Contemporary China: Sustained period of extraordinary economic growth

Economic revolution begins in 1978: Devolution of economic authority from Beijing to special economic zones (variant of federalism) -ensure common market (prevent internal tariffs) -competition for investment reduces gov't intervention; enhances gov't and public goods efficiency Shifting bases of political legitimacy: from achieving economic equality/progress/socialist utopia to economic growth and nationalism Significantly more freedom in economic activity; still maintain significant limits on political expression -communist (which refers to how gov't manages economy) only in name; but dominance of Communist political party key to its authoritarian regime Growth rates: Average growth rates 7-11% sine 1979 (but trending downward in last few years); US since '89: -0.2 to 4.5% Nominal GDP (2013) approx $9.2 trillion; US $16.8 trillion

ISIS policy review

End of January: Mattis given 30 days to construct new plan to defeat ISIS Continuity: rely on local allies (Kurds in Syria and Iraq, local Arabs in Syria that re not in army of Syrian gov't, and Iraqi gov't) to defeat ISIS Change: 5k (from 500) US troops in Syria Potential big change: US troops in Syria as peacekeepers among warring factions within anti-ISIS coalition Another significant change: US missile attacks in April 2017, retaliation against Assad regime for use of chemical weapons

2ND Sources of the commitment problem in civil war

Ethnic imbalances: ethnicity as a device to mobilize groups ---Can also activate commitment probs in civil wars ---Ethnicity can be a powerful device to mobilize groups and create collective action Minority groups tempted to secede; majority groups fight to preserve unity and access to resources in entire territory Minority groups tempted to secede; majority groups fight to preserve unity and access to resources in entire territory A majority group can use its power over the state to restrict the civil liberties of the minority by imposing higher taxes on them etc A majority group can use its power over the state to restrict the civil liberties of the minority by imposing higher taxes on them etc

George Kennan described the Soviet threat as:

Expansionary but cautious

Can substitute third party guarantee (B. Walter) if:

External state has self-interest in upholding Third party willing to use force if necessary Can signal resolve to stay the course -The third party has to be willing to stay the course to preserve the peace in case of the USA this often means a president has sufficient domestic support so that he can keep troops on the ground for an extended amount of time

A state possesses secure second strike capabilities when all of its nuclear weapons can be destroyed in an initial preemptive strike by an adversary. T/F

FALSE

Among all targets of terrorism, the United States has suffered the bulk of terrorist attacks and deaths attributed to terrorism over the last twenty years t/f

FALSE

In "Beyond Counterterrorism," Byman argues that all terrorist groups are the same and thus the counter-terrorism strategies that worked against Al Qaeda will also work against ISIS.

FALSE

Missile defense systems strengthen Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) by bolstering one side's second strike capability. T/F

FALSE

Power Transition theory holds that the likelihood of great power war increases when the distribution of military power among great powers is stable T/F

FALSE

The collapse of Soviet Union helped reduce the risk of civil war around the world.

FALSE

The dollar had served as the chief currency used in international trade from the end of WWII until the foundation of the European economic zone, at which point the Euro overtook the dollar in this role. (T/FALSE)

FALSE ---> While the Euro is a valuable foreign currency, the fact is that around the world the dollar is still easily the trade and reserve currency of choice. As of January 2015, China alone owned over 1.2 trillion dollars in American treasury bond debt

Defense is a psychological process built around issuing credible threats of punishment to convince an adversary to refrain from acting in a certain way t/f

FALSE - DETERRENCE

The Great Depression: International political consequences?

FDR and US withdrawal from Europe (isolationist from 1933-1938) -Congress passes series of Neutrality Acts (1935, 1936, 1937) German gov't makes collapse worse by pursuing austerity (dramatic spending cuts, tax hikes, high interest rates) and creates political space for Hitler's Nazi Party to seize gov't through legal, constitutional means -Hitler then uses rearmament to generate economic recovery, which leads directly to WWII

How does domestic politics shape American entry into WWII? cont.

FDR delicate game of expanding US support for British war effort while not publicly committing US to fight the war -Sep 1939: gets Congress to repeal arms embargo of Neutrality Acts -US Navy patrolling Atlantic (skirmishes with German navy in fall of 1941) -destroyers for naval bases deal with British by executive order (Sep 1940) -Lend Lease (March 1941): Us as arsenal for democracy Domestic constraints fall away with Pearl Harbor

(T/F) A state possesses secure second strike capabilities when all of its nuclear weapons can be destroyed in an initial preemptive strike by an adversary.

False

(T/F) According to lecture, all terrorists, from low-level foot soldiers to high-level leaders, engage in terrorism for the same reasons.

False

(T/F) According to lecture, the first major wave of democracy promotion as a centerpiece of American foreign policy came after the Cold War. (Module 20)

False

(T/F) American leaders and foreign policy-makers within the Roosevelt and Truman administrations were eager for the United States to disengage from world affairs and embrace isolationism at the end of World War II.

False

(T/F) Among all targets of terrorism, the United States has suffered the bulk of terrorist attacks and deaths attributed to terrorism over the last twenty years.

False

(T/F) China's recent increase in naval and maritime activity in the South China Sea is supported by other states in the region because they recognize it will boost overall commerce and security in the region. (Module 18)

False

(T/F) Defense is a psychological process built around issuing credible threats of punishment to convince an adversary to refrain from acting in a certain way.

False

(T/F) International factors, such as the prospect of alliances with European powers, played no part in the outcome of the Civil War.

False

(T/F) Missile defense systems strengthen Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) by bolstering one side's second strike capability.

False

(T/F) Power Transition theory holds that the likelihood of great power war increases when the distribution of military power among great powers is stable. (Module 18)

False

(T/F) President Wilson had sought to intervene militarily in World War I shortly after its outbreak in 1914 but was unable to do so because of a lack of public support.

False

(T/F) The Soviet Union saw the Marshall Plan as a cheap way to rebuild Western Europe and actually accepted Marshall Plan aid.

False

(T/F) The United States supports China in the maritime disputes over access to the South China Sea. (Module 18)

False

(T/F) The terrorist's dilemma describes the inner conflict a terrorist goes through before conducting a suicide mission.

False

A state possesses secure second strike capabilities when all of its nuclear weapons can be destroyed in an initial preemptive strike by an adversary.

False

A state possesses secure second-strike capabilities when all of its nuclear weapons can be destroyed in an initial preemptive strike by an adversary. A) True B.) False

False

According to the Malley and Finer "The Long Shadow of 9/11," domestic polarization inside the United States has limited the ability of the U.S. government to respond to the strategic challenges posed by terrorism.

False

According to the Malley and Finer "The Long Shadow of 9/11," the US response to the 9/11 attacks have left the U.S. government and its people in a better position to respond to the long term challenges posed by the growth of Chinese power and influence in the international system.

False

China's recent increase in naval and maritime activity in the South China Sea is supported by other states in the region because they recognize it will boost overall commerce and security in the region.

False

Defense is a psychological process built around issuing credible threat of punishment to convince an adversary to refrain from acting in a certain way.

False

Defense is a psychological process built around issuing credible threats of punishment to convince an adversary to refrain from acting in a certain way. (T/F)

False

During the Cold War, the United States relied on defensive strategies to protect American civilians from a Soviet nuclear attack.

False

Gorbachev's New Thinking was designed to reestablish Soviet political and military dominance over Eastern Europe.

False

Missile defense systems strengthen Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) by bolstering one side's second strike capability.

False

Power Transition theory holds that the likelihood of great power war increases when the distribution of military power among great powers is stable.

False

Saudi Arabia supports Iranian efforts in the Syrian War to ensure President Assad of Syria remains in power.

False

T/F: A state possesses secure second strike capabilities when all of its nuclear weapons can be destroyed in an initial preemptive strike by an adversary.

False

T/F: According to lecture, all terrorists, from low-level foot soldiers to high-level leaders, engage in terrorism for the same reasons.

False

T/F: According to the rules governing the Special Counsel provision, Congress has discretion on how much of the Mueller report to release.

False

T/F: American leaders and foreign policy-makers within the Roosevelt and Truman administrations were eager for the United States to disengage from world affairs and embrace isolationism at the end of World War II.

False

T/F: Among all targets of terrorism, the United States has suffered the bulk of terrorist attacks and deaths attributed to terrorism over the last twenty years.

False

T/F: Defense is a psychological process built around issuing credible threats of punishment to convince an adversary to refrain from acting in a certain way.

False

T/F: International factors, such as the prospect of alliances with European powers, played no part in the outcome of the Civil War.

False

T/F: Missile defense systems strengthen Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) by bolstering one side's second strike capability.

False

T/F: President Wilson had sought to intervene militarily in WWI shortly after its outbreak in 1914 but was unable to do so because of a lack of public support.

False

T/F: President Wilson had sought to intervene militarily in World War I shortly after its outbreak in 1914 but was unable to do so because of a lack of public support.

False

T/F: Saudi Arabia provided a single, consistent narrative explaining its role in the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi.

False

T/F: The Soviet Union saw the Marshall Plan as a cheap way to rebuild Eastern Europe and actually accepted Marshall Plan aid.

False

T/F: The Soviet Union saw the Marshall Plan as a cheap way to rebuild Western Europe and actually accepted Marshall Plan aid.

False

T/F: The United States is permanently deploying active duty military troops to its southern border to prevent illegal immigration.

False

T/F: The collapse of Soviet Union helped reduce the risk of civil war around the world.

False

T/F: The development of national missile defense strengthens mutually assured destruction (MAD).

False

T/F: The trade war with China, most notably the increased American tariffs imposed on imports of Chinese goods to the United States, has achieved President Trump's central aim of reducing the American trade deficit with China. The U.S. trade deficit with China for 2018 is at a 10-year low.

False

T/F: the Cold War, the United States provided foreign aid and intelligence only to fellow democracies.

False

Tariffs help to reduce consumer prices.

False

The collapse of the Soviet Union helped reduce the risk of civil war around the world.

False

The development of national missile defense strengthens mutually assured destruction (MAD).

False

The incoming national security advisor, John Bolton, is likely to pressure President Trump to preserve the Iran nuclear deal.

False

The terrorist's dilemma describes the inner conflict a terrorist goes through before conducting a suicide mission.

False

The top 5 exporters of steel to the United States are likely to see their steel exports cut drastically to the US because of the new tariffs on steel imposed by the Trump Administration.

False

US participation in the Vietnam War was separated from its larger strategy of Containment.

False

Beginning on September 11, Bush and his foreign policy advisers drew clear distinctions between terrorist groups and the states that harbor terrorist groups.

False - Bush administration drew an extended attack on terrorism ... Would not discriminate btw terrorist orgs & states that harbor terrorist groups

According to the Mayerfeld reading, the Ticking Time Bomb scenario is rarely realistic but when it does happen there is a moral justification for the use of torture.

False - No torture is justified, the TTB scenario is overly justified through Hollywood

In "Beyond Counterterrorism," Byman argues that all terrorist groups are the same and thus the counter-terrorism strategies that worked against Al Qaeda will also work against ISIS. (T/F)

False (look back into the text)

What did this social media campaign look like? Broader Political Implications

Focusing on Russian actions today, separate from collusion question which is still unanswered - US in a larger (sometimes hostile) international system Foreign power trying to undermine legitimacy of US elections --Tension within Trump Administration:

1ST Sources of the commitment problem

Shifts in the internal distribution of political or military power - - Potential sources of shift: withdrawal of support from external patron, democratization, emergence of social movement or political party (Communism) example: American and Soviet withdrawal of finances and military after Cold War example - from afghanistan commitment problem here stems from Inability of rising faction to limit its demands to remake the internal political order once it seizes power US withdrawal of financial and military force from Iraq -- eventually led to creation of Sunni's to align with Al- quada

Historical Overview of US FP: The Cold War

George Kennan and Containment Early Cold War crisis The German problem and the Cold War in Europe -What was the German problem? How did it contribute to the Cold War? How was it resolved? The Cold War in the Third World: Why was it harder to contain Soviet influence? Reagan, Gorbachev and the end of the Cold War

Recap: How did the German problem shape the Cold War?

Germany and the connections among Wars of German Unification, WWI, WWII and Cold War Germany at the center of struggle for influence in Europe between US and USSR German problem and Cold War in Europe settled (1964) via partition, occupation, and nuclear compromise Cold War competition then moves out of Europe...

Which of the following is a major point of view on globalization?

Globalization diffuses authority, transforming state power to operate in new contexts.

Cyber Warfare and Mueller Indictment

Goals of Russian campaign: -What were the russians trying the do? - Stoke domestic political conflict along racial, partisan, religious, and regional lines- extenuate the american domestic political conflict - Undermine Clinton candidacy and her legitimacy in office (if win)- - Support Trump (also did by attacking Rubio and Cruz) --Coordinated out of Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg --Said to be funded by Prigozhin - he put up the capital and has close ties to Putin- suggests that this campaign was organized and authorized by the Russian government

Sources of the commitment problem in civil war (I)

Shifts in the internal distribution of political or military power -potential sources of shift: withdrawal of support from external patron, democratization, emergence of social movement or political party (Communism) exs: -American and Soviet withdrawal after Cold War -US withdrawal from Iraq

Power Transition Theory

Similar to the Commitment Problem - shifts in the distribution of power amoung great powers can encourage declining great powers to launch preventive wars against great powers that are getting stronger and rising EX: USA China maritime things right now going on

How does violence shape political order? The fundamental dilemma of politics

Government or organization strong enough to enforce its directives is also strong enough to leverage authority for its own gain (Weingast) -violence can facilitate predation: the forcible redistribution of resources (as armed robbery by a political organization) -how empower gov't to enforce directives while also constraining its ability to engage in predatory activities that could strengthen its authority? -successful societies in the long run have figured out how to regulate use of violence in a way that constrains its arbitrary use and makes its deployment legitimate

The Great Depression

Great Depression dramatic, global economic downturn from 1928-1934 (or so) Elements: Collapsing industrial production, falling agricultural prices (75% drop from 1925-1932), rising unemployment (over 30% in some places), international trade contracts significantly (50% drop for some countries)

Which statement characterizes decision making during crises?

Groupthink occurs more easily.

Tripwire forces

Small military units stationed at global hotspots like the demilitarized zone along the border of north and south Korea - these units are not large enough to deter an attack - they are only sanctioned there politically - they would be casualty - enhancing USA credibility to attack if those soldiers were killed

Lukyanov reading

He argues that russia reaches it breaking point during Bush Administration after the US support a series of internal revolutions in georgia, ukraine etc - His argument is Rooted in set of broader claims about the de-stabling consequences of shifts in the distribution of power among great powers like the USA and Russia -Power shifts (Russian decline and then American decline/Russian resurgence) -Expansion of Western institutions post Cold War NATO Support for color revolutions that threatened Russian allies - NATO Expansion created Russian resistance The article finishes with a word of caution to Russia - its ability to recover parts of its geopolitical influence under putin depends on economic recovery in russia - stunted with low oil prices and economic sanctions Russia needs internal economic reform to sustain development that is capable of supporting its return to great power status

Great Power Politics (II): Hegemony, Power Transition Theory, and US-China relations

Hegemonic Stability Theory: Is the US the Indispensable Nation? Power Transition Theory Contemporary US-China relations -economic growth in China -Chinese grand strategy -Taiwan -Globalization and common political interests

polarity why is it important?

Helps understand great power relations: it sets coalitional dynamics and risks associated with coalitional realignments Destabilizing realignment occurs when one great power abandons an alliance with one great power and joins another Realignments most likely to happen under a multipolar system Great power war more likely in multipolar system meaning - these relationships and alliances with great powers are not that stable Polarity shapes great power politics by helping to structure coalitional dynamics among them

If wars are rarely total, and are limited, like the Korean War, than they will likely end with a war-terminating bargain.

How does Clausewitz' proposition that most "real" wars are limited develop the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR?

As disagreement over resource allocation and/or policy choice.

How does the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR view conflict and violence as the result of?

Which of the following were part of the international order that was remade after World War II in the period from 1945 to 1950?

IMF THE U.N NATO

Which Terrorist Groups hold territory?

ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah

Violence and international political order: implications for the US

If predators in international politics, what should be done? -eg. Hitler: use violence to over turn Weimar democracy and then embarks on horrific program of genocidal expansion -use of violence for predation as self-sustaining: take what they want and then use those new resources to bolster military so they can engage in more predation Sometimes they have to go to war to impose limits on or regulate violence -if you do not counter force with force, future of political impotence as target of extortion

International intervention in civil war? (IV)

Important insight: shouldn't treat third party as neutral -as strategic actor in larger bargaining game that can shape how war is fought through threat or expectation of participation in war, not just with actual intervention Paradoxical result: threat of intervention (which might be designed to deter attacks on civilians) might actually make it more likely by encouraging weaker side to fight and allow civilians to be targeted Kuperman (LBJ) Skeptical view: associated with isolationism or offshore balancing in US grand strategy debates

Public goods, coercion, and leadership

In domestic politics, free rider problem solved via coercion as state collects resources (taxes) to supply public goods -large actors absorbs costs of public goods on own because acquire sufficient compensatory benefits Who provides public goods in international politics? -lack supranational authority like a state that can coerce contributions -hegemonic leadership: large actors (like the US) voluntarily supply public goods on own exs: international economic stability, protection of global commons (sea lanes and the environment)

According to the logic presented in lecture, how does the possibility of intervention in a civil war by the United States change the dynamics of that war?

In order to entice the US to intervene, the losing side may actually allow the civilian population to be made more vulnerable and cause a humanitarian crisis.

Inability to commit not to fight in the future, aka, credible commitment problems can preclude a settlement.

In the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR, what is the second cause of war?

Bargaining may not avoid war if the item under dispute is indivisible.

In the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR, what is the third cause of war?

All phases.

In what phase of war does BARGAINING take place?

Pavlovsky Reading

Insiders account of how internal political decisions get made within russia under Putin autonomy to curators -- or independent policy entrepreneurs acting within russian state - they have a lot of independence to experiment with policy as long as they follow putin - they could be governors, advisors, head of economic firm argues that putin has not built an efficient or cohesive bureaucratic machinery that is capable of implementing his most preferred policies without making mistakes

How does the united states successfully constrain its own power after WWII Making it legitimate

Internal: democracy In the case of democracy the president cannot use force without getting support from the public and Congress. This creates constraints on use of Military force. External: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) the expectation is that the USA will consult allies giving it some capacity to influence or constrain its decisions to use military force

According to transformationalists, why is sovereignty sometimes more fluid than one might think?

International organizations such as the EU erode state sovereignty.

Challenges of fighting war in Iraq

International resistance, cannot get second UN resolution -activates fundamental problem of politics: Is US restrained? Insufficient preparation for post-Saddam Iraq, basic security collapses Civil War -democracy promotion unleashes commitment problem: how reassure minority Sunni coalition, restrain majority Shia coalition, and keep Kurds in Iraq (so Turkey doesn't hinder)? New sanctuary/training ground for terrorism Diverts resources and attention from Afghanistan Securing the peace requires much longer commitment than anticipated -domestic support erodes, which opens broader questions about sustaining larger global war against terrorism?

How does domestic politics shape American entry into WWII?

Isolationist sentiment in US was still strong following the outbreak of war in Europe in 1939 -80% still opposed to entering war in Autumn 1941, but strong majority wanted Axis defeated FDR wanted to support Great Britain and confront Hitler but constrained by Neutrality acts -designed to limit executive authority and preserve nonintervention

As discussed in lecture, John Ikenberry's critique of the 2003 Iraq war is based on the coercion dilemma wherein:

It was a failure by the US to observe self-imposed limits on military power

Just War Theory: jus ad bellum, jus in bello, jus post bellum

Just War Theory - dates back to St. Augustine (5th century) and Thomas Aquinas (13th century) Revival in 20th century with advent of nuclear weapons and American involvement in Vietnam War Since 9/11, debate has re-emerged with changing nature of warfare and terrorism jus ad bellum - just initiation of war jus in bello - just conduct of war jus post bellum - justice after the end of war

Just War Theory in the Age of Terrorism: Discussion of Crawford Reading (I)

Just War Theory never neatly fit with changing nature of war: Nevertheless, the Bush Administration declared: -war has been transformed by terrorism -but, the fight against terrorism was a "just war" War has been transformed in the age of terrorism -terrorists fight wars differently than states and states counter the terrorist threat differently than countering the threat of other states: aims, combatants, and conduct of war has changed with the end of the Cold War -war is also transformed by terrorism because: states fight terrorism with conventional forces making "just initiation of war" difficult; the line between war and peace is blurred making "just conduct of war" difficult

Kennan and the Sources of Soviet Conduct: Why did the Soviet Union behave the way it did?

Kennan's View of the Soviet Union a. Patience and Marxist Ideology b. Dictatorship and the need for an external enemy c. Containment as a contest between rival political systems

Recap: International intervention in civil war

Key: external actors like the US as strategic participants even without intervening Intervention can help to alleviate commitment problem and help end civil war by easing risks of disarmament But a potential paradox: sometimes robust expectations of intervention can make civilian targeting more likely through moral hazard problem

What do Kydd and Walter think of terrorist groups?

Kydd and Walter DO think terrorist groups are strategic "Terrorist groups are rational actors that use violence because it often works to achieve concrete goals" terrorist strategies as costly signals to influence behavior

Contemporary China: status of Taiwan

Legacy of extended civil war between Communists and Nationalists Nationalists flee to Taiwan in 1949 and set up rival gov't US develops strong relations with Taiwan as part of Cold War, but improves ties with mainland during Nixon administration Most states (including US) do not recognize Taiwan as independent Key outstanding issue: One China of which Taiwan is a part? -long pointed to as potential flash point in US-China policy, often defined differently by both sides -over last twenty years, tension escalates when domestic politics in Taiwan creates pressures to declare formal independence -significant economic ties have helped to stabilize in last decade

What is the effect of great power wars?

Long wars fought among great powers tend to remake the structure of International Politics by transforming the Main Political Actors in the system

Complicated regional politics in the Middle East

Lost of opposition to ISIS: US, Russia, Syrian gov't, Kurds, Iran, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq However, disagree about: -whether Assad should remain in power -about threat posed by Iranian regional hegemony -Kurdish threat to Turkey These political disagreements complicate military cooperation in fight against ISIS

Are nuclear weapons different?

Magnitude of Destruction - Are nuclear weapons so destructive that they can or should only be used as a deterrent?

The leader of India's struggle for independence from Britain who emphasized nonviolence was __________.

Mahatma Gandhi

What is war?

Military contest among competing organizations Organizations possess conflicting interests over some set of issues in dispute Use of physical punishment to secure political concessions or disarm the adversary -military force signal resolves (willingness to sustain costs in service of some political goal); reveals the distribution of military power between sides; and can enable one side to impose settlement on other Violent means to some political end -Clausewitz: war as the continuation of politics by other means

International intervention in civil war? (III)

Moral hazard problem: mechanism of insurance actually encourages risky behavior that they are trying to deter -often talked about in context of financial bailouts For secessionist groups that are losing civil war, can create incentive to leave civilian population vulnerable Genocide or attacks on civilians prompt international intervention

International intervention in civil war? (I)

Most civil war do not end with disputants finding bargain on their own - one side imposes solution or third party helps enforce. Why? Civil wars are different from international war, one side has to disarm Disarmament creates an intense period of vulnerability because they are no longer using military force to punish the other side if they do not abide by peace terms

The Larger Campaign to Disrupt the 2016 Elections

Multiple components -Mueller indictment details cyberwar campaign through social media -Hacking of Democratic National Committee IT infrastructure -Hack emails of Podesta, Clinton's campaign chief -Coordination with Wikileaks to release compromising information at strategically important times

Decision makers utilized the historical analogy of __________ when debating the intervention in Vietnam.

Munich in 1938

Many of these changes ratified or instituted at great power settlements that end these wars like:

Napoleonic Wars (1815), World War I (1919), World War II (1945), end of Cold War (1990)

The __________ equilibrium is the solution used for the Prisoner's dilemma in the Module 3 lecture.

Nash

__________ is/are an element of power on which an actor can draw over the long term, whereas __________ is an element of power that allows an actor to exercise influence in the short term.

Natural resources; military force

What was 9/11 and how did it change us?

New enemy in terrorism and new mission of counter-terrorism The domestic fight against terrorism: rise of the security state and the debate over the balance between liberty and security Taking the fight abroad: Foreign wars and counter-terrorism

Which of the following describes issues associated with new entrants to the club of nuclear states?

New members tend to be poorer and have fewer nuclear weapons New members may not have the organizational capacity to control their nuclear arsenal The introduction of new nuclear members may set off a nuclear arms race

Are terrorist groups strategic?

No -Abrams: Terrorist groups do not display characteristics of rational cost-benefit analysis in their actions Yes - Kydd and Walter: Terrorist groups are rational actors that use violence because it often works to achieve concrete goals Terrorist strategies as costly signals to influence behavior -attrition: outlasting an adversary through war of wills -provocation: goading the adversary into conflict -intimidation: overthrowing a gov't through reign of terror -spoiling: sabotaging the peace -outbidding: competition between terrorist groups

Was the Cold War a great power war?

No, the Cold War was not a great power war, but the ending resembled the end of a great power war

Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Stability

Non-nuclear states often seek nuclear weapons because they do not trust the credibility of extended deterrence Nuclear proliferation may increase credibility problems because proliferators (non nuclear states that are getting nuclear weapons) lack the fundamentals for secure second strike capabilities

Terrorism Nature of perpetrator

Non-state actors (or individuals influenced or inspired by them) are the principal perpetrators of terrorism rather than states - they are groups that lack conventional capabilities to meet the armies of states on the battlefields

Mandelbaum, How to Prevent an Iranian Nuclear Bomb

Note that Mandelbaum starts from a specific perspective on nuclear proliferation... is he a nuclear optimist or nuclear pessimist? Mandelbaum argues that Iran must not be allowed to get a nuclear weapon. Why? -political consensus in US that Iran must not get a nuclear weapon -unlike N. Korea, Iranian bomb could spark regional nuclear proliferation -unlike MAD during Cold War, nuclear competition in Middle East would be unstable -South Korea opposed US military intervention in N. Korea, Iran's neighbors would not oppose US military intervention in Iran How is the best way to keep Iran from getting the bomb? -does not take a position on Iran nuclear deal; asks instead what to do if Iran cheats, the deal is canceled, or the deal expires -dismisses "snap-back" economic sanctions -argues for deterrence -threatening military intervention if Iran tries to get a nuclear weapon Deterrence against an Iranian nuclear bomb: -difference with Cold War deterrence of Soviets - preventing attack vs. preventing acquisition of weapons

Simon and Stevenson, The End of Pax Americana reading

Note that this is an application of a set of grand strategy ideas or principles... which ones? Why (Washington Middle East) pullback? Changing regional dynamics: oil, altered strategic priorities of allies, diminishing effectiveness of US military power How to answer larger questions in module about American intervention in civil war?

Nuclear Proliferation definition

Nuclear Proliferation is a term used to describe the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information, to nations which are not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

The Problem of Credibility

Nuclear deterrence depends on the credibility of threats to work adversary must believe that threats that a state makes will be carried out If the leader is bluffing then there will be consequences Dilemmas of extended deterrence - using nuclear deterrence to defend allies against attack The usa threatened soviet union if they were attack west germany - but would the US retaliate and but their own cities in damage

Nuclear deterrence presents a paradox: mutually assured destruction promotes caution and avoidance of war between nuclear-armed states, yet states fear the immense destructive capacity of nuclear weapons. Why?

Nuclear deterrence is not full proof it is vulnerable to threats that are not stable

How are nuclear weapons distinguished from conventional weapons?

Nuclear weapons are capable of unleashing terrible destruction in a short period of time Nuclear weapons could change the primary targets of warfare to civilian populations Winners and losers of warfare including nuclear weapons are difficult to differentiate

Nuclear Weapons

Nucs have altered the course of international politics Because they have the capacity to destroy cities, economies, and states

offshore balancing definition

Offshore balancing is a strategic concept used in realist analysis international relations. It describes a strategy where a great power uses favored regional powers to check the rise of potential hostile powers

Ptolemaic astronomy was a very __________ system, but it was not very ___________

- accurate, testable - NOT THIS ANSWER testable, accurate - parsimonious, accurate - accurate, logically consistent

MAD

depends on each state possessing a second-strike capability—the ability to survive a first-strike nuclear attack with sufficient nuclear warheads intact and operational to launch a counterattack that would be damaging enough to outweigh any benefits that would be gained from launching a surprise attack in the first place

what did US have to offer as the hegemonic state of stability

dominant state provides public goods that are necessary for international economy to flourish -market for distressed goods (maintain imports when no one else will) -provide currency for international trade to be conducted (dollars) -provide access to credit (US Fed, 2008 crisis) -protect shipping (naval power important prerequisite)

Strategic Defense Initiative

during reagans administration most ambitious missile defense program proposed to counter an all-out Soviet nuclear attack. Was never implemented. - had tech problems - this proposal scared the soviet union After Reagan, U.S. has pursued limited NMD, which has goal of countering attacks by new nuclear states with small nuclear arsenals and accidental launches

false

distressed goods definition

goods sold below the prevailing price in order to raise cash quickly or to meet some other financial emergency market for distressed goods (maintain imports when no one else will)

Which model of decision making consists of negotiations between bureaucratic agencies with divergent interests?

government bargaining model

The Playing card experiment of Bruner and Postman demonstrates______________

how our minds will distort what we observe to fit with our preexisting beliefs about the way the world works

power vacuum definition

in a political science and political history, the term power vacuum, also known as power void, is an analogy between a physical vacuum, to the political condition "when someone has lost control of something and no one has replaced them." one of the causes of the Truman Doctrine is the diminished power of Great Britain causing a power vacuum

second strike capability definition

in nuclear strategy, a second-strike capability is a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker -so essentially, second strike capability is the fact that someone isn't going to use a nuke on a country that has nukes because they could fire back

Commitment Problem

inability of side with rising power to promise or commit to abide by the terms of any settlement indefinitely in the future States will go to war if they think any peace deal struck with an adversary is not sustainable over time Often due to shifts in distribution of military power -----Creates expectations that agreement not self-enforcing, more powerful will demand more concessions in the future Commitment problems and the wars that follow them stem from shifts in the distribution of power between contending sides in a dispute

When British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain signed the nonaggression pact with Hitler in Munich in 1938, he did not want to see the clear signs of Hitler's aggression and chose to appease him instead. Some scholars argue this was due to Chamberlain's not wanting to lead Britain into a major war. If true, this would best illustrate __________.

information screens

According to lecture, two important mechanisms that the US has used to bind its own power and make its authority legitimate are?

international organizations and its democratic form of government. TRUE - Democracy - NATO

What is war?

is a military contest among competing coercive organizations that meets some threshold of death or destruction. This deployment of military force is inherently violent and destructive

Just War Theory

is a set of legal and moral standards that help us evaluate decisions for war and conduct during war. These standards effectively provide moral legitimacy and legal justification for the relaxation of standard prohibitions found in all societies against violence and the deliberate killing of other humans. - the right to war - right conduct in war justice after war

Multipolarity

is a system in which power is distributed at least among 3 significant poles concentrating wealth and/or military capabilities and able to block or disrupt major political arrangements threatening their major interests example - USA, China, India in this multipolar system there was risk of abandonment - risk of one side switching sides and joining another - mostly likly to start great power war in a multi polar system

What is Polarity?

it counts the number of great powers in the international system how great powers structure world politics CHINA, USA, RUSSIA Polarity and power transition help us understand these great powers China influences relations with North Korea USA influences Mexico, South Korea, Iraq Russia influence Syria and the Ukraine

augment definition

make something greater by adding to it; increase Saddam Hussein sought to augment capabilities and would threaten Allies in region

Moral Hazard problem

mechanism of insurance actually encourages risky behavior that trying to deter Often talked about in context of financial bailouts In context of civil war - Expectations of american intervention on civil war to protect civilians and prevent genocide can potentially make genocide more likely

Byman Continued

most terrorist groups are participating in a civil war - they are trying to destabilize local government and take advantage of political vacuum created by failing state Byman argues that the US is misdiagnosing terrorist threat - he says the direct threat to US imposed by terrorism has been inflated because of 9/11 - terror strikes are rare and less damaging than those posed on 9/11 - Terrorist groups pose an indirect threat to the USA - threatening key allies in the region like Jordan and Israel

North Korea has adopted a strategy of relative withdrawal and isolation in the international system. Although this helps it to avoid the commitment problems and prisoners dilemmas that characterize so much of international politics, it also caused________________

much poverty

Working through international institutions to achieve foreign policy goals is the preference of __________.

multilateralists

attrition definition

outlasting an adversary through war of wills -the action or process of gradually reducing the strength of effectiveness of someone or something through sustained attack or pressure

intimidation definition

overthrowing a gov't through reign of terror

The 2017 demonstrations in London responding to U.S. President Donald Trump's threats against North Korea provide an example of __________.

peace movements

Nongovernmental organizations are __________ organizations acting as __________ actors.

private; transnational

spoiling definition

sabotaging the peace

Political Order

stable patterns or regularities of social behavior induced by authority relationships and/or coercion - The relationship between authority and coercion is important

Realists believe that __________.

states act in an international system characterized by anarchy

The Commitment Problem in the Syrian War

states fight because cannot commit to sustain/honor indefinitely terms of any peace settlement Commitment problems activated by shifts in the distribution of power In Syria, these power shifts that sustain war stem from repetitive rounds of foreign intervention...by US, Israel, Russia, Turkey, Iran

The concept of groupthink suggests that the __________ decision making affect(s) the outcome.

structural context of

The "live and let live system of trench warfare" got its start in WWI because of:

tacit behavior by British and German forces, such as not firing at each other during meal times or inclement weather, and by not bombing each other's supply lines.

Use of violence for predation as self-sustaining

take what they want and then use those new resources to bolster military so can engage in more predation Ex: Hitler - What would happen if there was no countervailing force to stop these armies - they would have continued to expand - - their predation would have become self sustaining - the conquered will have a political life of concession and exploitation in which groups are unwilling to protect themselves

The "live and let live system of trench warfare" described by Axelrod is important to the study of conflict resolution, because this research demonstrates:

that even under very harsh conditions (like trench warfare), actors can achieve mutual cooperation and manage their conflicts

In the module 3 lecture, two key pieces of evidence were used in support of the theory: __________ and ____________.

the democratic peace and results from the repeated prisoners dilemma

What is the paradox of third party intervention threat (international intervention in civil war)

the paradox is that threat of intervention (which may be designed to deter attacks on civilians) might actually make it more likely by encouraging the weaker side to fight and allow civilians to be targeted

According to the lecture in Module 3, Axelrod's research into _______________ illustrates how cooperation can emerge and be sustained.

the prisoner's dilemma

What is the axis of evil?

the term axis of evil was used by US President George W. Bush in hi State of the Union address on Jan 29, 2002, and often repeated throughout his presidency, to describe gov'ts that his administration accused of sponsoring terrorism and seeking weapons of mass destruction Iran, Iraq, and North Korea

Affective bias refers to the emotions felt by decision makers when they consider the consequences of __________.

their own actions

A _________ is a causal argument about the way the world works

theory

Why support pullback? Not intervening

these ideas instead are arguing that they are shifting regional dynamics that are leaving USA to recalibrate FP in the Middle East They argue that america ability to transform the region politically through military force is fading The USA can still win military victories - what follows - it is harder to construct a stable political arrangement in a state like syria or iraq with multiple ethnic and religious groups They argue the USA should abstain from any new military commitment in the region and return to traditional role as important status quo player in the region like an offshore balancer it implies that a stable lasting peace aided by the USA is unlikely

Why wouldn't deterrence work for weapons of mass destruction?

they had been used in the past

How do great powers influence international politics?

they transform the larger structure of int politics by setting the rules and determining which int. Politics will reign in the future. - Long wars fought among great powers tend to remake the structure of international politics by transforming the main political actors in the system

What is the skeptical view of third party intervention of civil war? (what is TPI associated with)

third party intervention is associated with isolationism or offshore balancing in US grand strategy debates

Reparation definition

to make amends for a wrong one has done, by paying money to or otherwise helping those who have been wronged

what is the ultimate goal of a Just War

to re-establish peace, that peace must be preferable to the peace that existed before the war

Dilemmas of extended deterrence

using nuclear deterrence to defend allies against attack

Which of the following is a critique of realism from the postmodern perspective?

States are not the central actors in international relations.

Unipolarity

Structural condition associated with american economic, political, military, dominance in the world - one dominate state one hegemon

Power Transition Theory

Structure of international politics set by rise AND fall of leading powers -peace and growth during ascendancy; instability and conflict during decline -shift in distribution of power heightens risk of war between declining hegemon and rising challenger -fight because of commitment problem: declining states launches preventive war because rising state cannot commit to preserve SQ system and the benefits it generates Key source of shifts in distributions of military power (Paul Kennedy): differential rates of economic growth -economic productive capacity as foundation for military power

Nuclear Weapons and Peace?

Successful deterrence rests on secure second strike capabilities Sufficient number of nuclear weapons so that all cannot be destroyed in a first strike by adversary. Enough survive to launch retaliatory strike. If both sides possess secure second strike capabilities, both sides deterred from launching war US and Soviets avoided direct military confrontation during the Cold War because of the risk that a war could escalate into a nuclear war and kill millions.

How do you empower government to enforce directives while also constraining its ability to engage in predatory activities that could strengthen its authority?

Successful societies in the long run have figured out how to regulate use of violence in a way that constrains its arbitrary use and makes its deployment legitimate - and through Democracy

Conflict in syria is complicated civil war remaking the middle east Who are the the key players?

Syria ISIS Iraq Iran U.S Israel Turkey Lebanon Russia

Background on Syrian Conflict

Syrian conflict rooted in civil conflict between President Assad and opposition but involves many actors Civil War: Asaad gov't (backed by Russia, Iran, Hezbollah) vs. Rebel groups (backed by US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States) War against ISIS: ISIS vs. US and many countries including Russia and Iran Overlapping conflicts cause complications -US and Russia support different sides in Civil War but are both against ISIS -Turkey and Kurds are both allied with US against ISIS but conflict with each other

Multiple Layers of War in Syria

Syrian government - gov of president Assad (backed by Iran and Russia) versus rebels (backed by US and Turkey) ISIS v. large international coalition (Syria, Russia, US, Turkey, Syrian Kurds, Iraq, Iran) - fight against ISIS to retake territory taken by them Turkey military v. Syrian Kurds in northern Syria for territory Iran v. Israel? - armed skirmishes over syria Syria is a failed state where a variety of different groups each control portions of the country The syrian gov has now taken vast amounts of territory in the southern, western, and central regions of the country Syria divided by ethnic lines as well The Assad family has drawn coalition from Allawites - small minority of population (10% in 2010) Syria is ruled by minority group He has limited political participation and relied on brutal authoritarian means to remain in power

As the recent North Korean missile tests demonstrate, the development of these missile capabilities helps the North Korean regime demonstrate the credibility of its threats associated with nuclear deterrence. T/F

TRUE

Delegating control over nuclear weapons to subordinates can strengthen the credibility of nuclear deterrence through something called the "threat that leaves something to chance."

TRUE

Great powers have historically extended their political influence throughout the international system with formal empires. T/F

TRUE

Hegemonic stability holds that the global concentration of economic and political power in one state tends to promote open international trade. T/F

TRUE

International trade and globalization after 1945 have helped to support peace among the great powers. T/F

TRUE

Political order is the patterns or regularities of social behavior that are induced or set by authority relationships or coercion.

TRUE

The United States and its NATO ally, Turkey, disagree over the political and military status of Syrian Kurds in northern SyriA

TRUE

The United States helped to alter the international system through the Versailles settlement in 1919 by supporting democracy and national self-determination. T/F

TRUE

The Versailles Treaty terminating World War I imposed significant reparations and territorial losses on Germany. T/F

TRUE

The attacks on September 11, 2001 helped prompt the formation of a new national security infrastructure in the United States, most notably the creation of the Department of Homeland Security.

TRUE

Two of the political uses for war as described in lecture are to extract concessions from an adversary and to disarm an adversary.

TRUE

Which is NOT part of the nuclear triad mentioned in this module's reading?

Tank-launched ballistic missiles (TLBCs)

The Nature of the Terrorist Threat: How are terrorist groups different from other threats?

Terrorism and the differences in fighting states and non-state actors -power differential -goals -deterrence -strategies/tactics

What Is Terrorism?

Terrorism is a contested and politicized concept that does not have a single, universally agreed upon definition In International Relations, terrorism is defined as the use or threatened use of violence against non-combatants in pursuit of a political aim According to this definition, terrorism is differentiated from other acts of violence (like civil war, interstate war, state coercion, criminal violence) by three main factors: Goals Targets Nature of perpetrator

Terrorism Goals

Terrorism is a political act and perpetrated to achieve a political goal. This goal separates terrorism from criminal acts of violence

Terrorism Targets

Terrorism is designed to provoke fear in a wider audience than its immediate victims

Goals and Purposes of Terrorist Organizations - Terrorist Foot soldiers

Terrorist "foot soldiers": psychological and sociological focus rooted in understanding why individuals join clandestine extremist organizations. Individuals are attracted to join because they find social acceptance within these groups that they lack in other areas of their lives

What is the nature and extent of the threat of international terrorism

Terrorist Orgs undermine states foundation of protecting their citizens There has been many other forces other than terrorism that causes more fatality and destruction 9/11 lead to reorganization of American policy

Which of the following was described in lecture as distinguishing terrorist groups from states?

Terrorist groups typically have more limited goals than states

Goals and Purposes of Terrorist Organizations - Terrorist Leaders

Terrorist leaders: strategic focus rooted in use of terrorist attacks to influence the behavior of the states they oppose They use violent attacks to prompt reaction that the terrorist org is hoping for - they use violence because they don't look for nonviolent strategies to achieve their goals

The Cold War as a Great Power Conflict

The Cold War was NOT a great power war -no direct military conflict between the US and USSR But, the end of the Cold War resembled the end of a great power war -state/territorial change: killed states (Soviet collapse, Yugoslavia collapse, Czech split), created new states (Soviet successor states), re-established states (Germany reunited) -regime change (communist systems collapsed, democracies emerged) -distribution of military power changed (bipolar to unipolar world) -enforcement mechanisms changed (Warsaw Pact collapsed, NATO and EU expanded)

The Syrian War

The conflict Begins in 2011, internal protests as part of Arab Spring - Many long standing governments were toppled - in syria there were popular protests against government, the Assad regime used military force to repress opposition groups - rebel groups wanting to topple Assad groups- the usa and other allies support the rebel groups Syrian government violent represses, activates "internationalized" civil war Extensive external intervention: US,Turkey, Saudi Arabia- support rebel groups Has killed between 350,000 and 500,000 people 11 million (of 22 million) displaced, over 5 million refugees outside the country - fled - they now live in turkey and surrounding regions The us has taken in 16,000 syrian refugees- 3/10 of 1% of of the 5 million refugees

According to power transition theory, why does a shift in the distribution of military power between two states increase the likelihood of war between them? (Module 18)

The declining state chooses to attack before the growing military and political power of its adversary are used to impose a series of unfavorable political concessions

Which of the following is NOT described as being an important political result of the end of World War I?

The formation of the European Union.

Which of the following best defines "sovereignty?"

The international norm that external powers will respect the territorial boundaries of another state and not interfere in its domestic politics.

Third World definition

The nonaligned nations - which are often developing nations - of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. What are in a "third" group of nations because they were allied neither with the US nor with the former Soviet Union

Private information

The presence of private information leads one side to offer insufficient concessions in the prewar negotiations that are designed to create a peace settlement that will leave both states better off

The Truman Doctrine

The principle that the US should give support to countries or peoples threatened by Soviet forces or communist insurrection. First expressed in 1947 by US president Truman in a speech to Congress seeking aid for Greece and Turkey, the doctrine was seen by the communists as an open declaration of the Cold War.

3 Threats to Nuclear Deterrence

The problem of credibility National missile defense Nuclear proliferation

Mutually Assured Destruction and Stability

The stability of MAD -when both sides possess a second-strike capability neither side has an incentive to initiate conflict The instability of missile defense: Capability to destroy incoming missiles eliminates secure second strike capability of adversary -might tempt holder into launching first strike as can destroy retaliatory strikes in the air -might face significantly reduced costs of destruction that are key to stability of nuclear deterrence The vulnerable side has incentives to: -engage in a military buildup to overwhelm missile defenses -initiate a preemptive strike before missile defenses are operational

The alliance between the United States and the Soviet Union during World War II quickly collapsed and was replaced by an adversarial relationship and a Cold War because:

The two countries had radically different political and economic systems with incompatible goals.

What are politics?

The use of authority to allocate scarce resources? Means of coordinating social behavior Two elements: Authority: capacity to direct social behavior (actions of others) -often relies on coercion: capacity to impose costs (physical, economic, social, emotional) if directive not followed -but presence of authority also rests on some legitimacy (target of directive recognizes right of person or organization to do so, even if they disagree with the command) Allocation of scarce resources: implies some degree of competition or social conflict over that allocation

Nuclear Weapon

Their sheer destructive poses significant threat to any society The dev. Of Nucs has radically changed the challenges associated with protecting civilians from external threats

Maritime Disputes in the South China Sea

These moves by china are seen as influenced by the Monroe Doctrine and the USA - creation of islands China uses Cabbage strategy - they surround islands and take them over from other countries and make those islands theirs to control - and create more naval bases

How can states combat terrorist orgs

They face severe challenges when responding to these groups They are in conflict with states that house terrorists They are non state actors (terrorists) that are against democratic states and values

Byman, Beyond Counterterrorism READING

This article is a criticism of national security discourse in the USA that has occured in the aftermath of 9/11 that lumps all groups engaged in terrorism together - implies that a similar set of counterterrorism policies can be applied to all of these groups They act like a government - want more territory, engage in wars - Al-Qaeda did not want land they just used what was granted to them - they focused on killing

International intervention in civil war? (II)

This is commitment problem: fear of one side not fulfilling peace obligations couples with vulnerability of disarmament leads to continuation of war Civil war has destroyed institutions (judiciary, police, power-sharing like federal division, minority rights) used to solve this enforcement problem Can substitute third party guarantee (B. Walter) if: -external state has self-interest in upholding -third party willing to use force if necessary -can signal resolve to stay the course

What does it mean to be the indispensable nation?

To be the state that other states rely upon to lead the international system, especially in regards to solving crises and brokering agreements. --> In lecture we defined "indispensability" as something that is completely necessary. Here, to be the indispensable nation means to be the country upon which all the others in the international system have come to rely. In the current international system, many states wait for the US to take the lead in political negotiations (e.g. a nuclear deal with Iran) or in military endeavors (ISIS)

(T/F) As the recent North Korean missile tests demonstrate, the development of these missile capabilities helps the North Korean regime demonstrate the credibility of its threats associated with nuclear deterrence.

True

(T/F) Before formally entering World War II in 1941, FDR successfully maneuvered around domestic pressure for nonintervention in the war and steadily increased American support for the war efforts of Great Britain through such initiatives as Lend Lease.

True

(T/F) Delegating control over nuclear weapons to subordinates can strengthen the credibility of nuclear deterrence through something called the "threat that leaves something to chance."

True

(T/F) Democracy can help promote peace among democratic states by solving the commitment problem. (Module 20)

True

(T/F) During the Cold War, the US faced more opposition to its political and military intervention in the Third World than it did to its intervention in Europe.

True

(T/F) Elections in democracies can help promote peace among democratic states by raising the domestic political costs of war. (Module 20)

True

(T/F) German declaration of unrestricted submarine warfare played a large role in the United States declaring war on Germany.

True

(T/F) Great powers in prior centuries have extended their political influence throughout the international system with formal empires. (Module 18)

True

(T/F) Hegemonic stability holds that the global concentration of economic and political power in one state tends to promote open international trade. (Module 18)

True

(T/F) Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) can help to promote peace among states that possess nuclear weapons by raising the costs of starting a war to unacceptable levels.

True

(T/F) On average, democratic states tend to win the wars they enter because reelection incentives (namely, the fear of getting voted out of office for policy failures) push democratic leaders to be cautious when going to war. Consequently, democratic leaders generally fight only when they have a high probability of victory. (Module 20)

True

(T/F) Some international organizations can facilitate interstate cooperation by enforcing agreements that states reach among themselves. (Module 19)

True

(T/F) Some research suggests that securing U.N. approval for a military action raises public support within the United States for that action. (Module 19)

True

(T/F) The Sinatra Doctrine was Gorbachev's belief that the Soviet satellite states in Eastern Europe should be allowed to go their own way politically and economically.

True

(T/F) The Treaty of Versailles helped cause World War II by destabilizing the Weimar government in Germany and pushing conservatives to pursue revisionist foreign policy goals.

True

(T/F) The United States contributed to the Great Depression with a restrictive tariff policy and higher interest rates that slowed the flow of credit to Europe.

True

(T/F) The United States helped to alter the international system through the Versailles settlement in 1919 by rhetorically supporting democracy and national self-determination.

True

(T/F) The Versailles Treaty terminating World War I imposed significant reparations and territorial losses on Germany.

True

(T/F) The attacks on September 11, 2001 helped prompt the formation of a new national security infrastructure in the United States, most notably the creation of the Department of Homeland Security.

True

(T/F) The international political order set up after World War II included an important economic component focused on facilitating globalization and cutting barriers to international trade.

True

(T/F) Two of the political uses for war as described in lecture are to extract concessions from an adversary and to disarm an adversary.

True

According to Just War Theory, the 2001 war launched by the United States against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in retaliation for the attacks on 9/11 was just.

True

According to McFaul in "Russia as It is," Vladimir Putin sees U.S. support for democracy and international organizations as inherently threatening to Russia

True

According to lecture, authority is made up of both coercion and legitimacy.

True

According to lecture, one of the sources of great power peace since the end of WWII has be nuclear deterrence and a secure second strike capability.

True

According to lecture, the two chief mechanisms that the US has used to bind its own power and make its authority legitimate are international organizations and its democratic form of government.

True

According to lecture, two important mechanisms that US has used to bind its own power and make its authority legitimate are international organizations and its democratic form of government.

True

American sponsorship and support for NATO expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990's has harmed the current political relationship between Russia and the United States.

True

As important assumption of the bargaining model of war is that war is costly.

True

Before formally entering World War II in 1941, FDR successfully maneuvered around domestic pressure for nonintervention in the war and steadily increased American support for the war efforts of Great Britain through such initiatives as Lend Lease.

True

Delegating control over nuclear weapons to subordinates can strengthen the credibility of nuclear deterrence through something called the "threat that leaves something to chance."

True

Hegemonic stability holds that the global concentration of economic and political power in one state tends to promote open international trade.

True

In "Return of the Jihadi," Hoffman argues that ISIS poses a considerable terrorist threat to Western nations due to the boomerang effect in which citizens of Western countries travel to places like Syria to fight with ISIS and then can easily travel back to their home country.

True

International trade and globalization after 1945 have helped to support peace among the great powers.

True

Last Saturday, the Russian government voted in support of the UN Resolution demanding a ceasefire in the Syrian War.

True

Marshall Plan aid was designed partly to prevent the spread of Soviet influence in Europe.

True

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) can help to promote peace among states that possess nuclear weapons by raising the costs of starting a war to unacceptable levels.

True

One of the components of the definition of terrorism described in the textbook highlights its political function: acts of terrorism are generally designed to pursue some political goal.

True

One of the reasons that General James Mattis resigned as Secretary of Defense was his belief that the US troop withdrawal form Syria could effectively abandon the Syrian Kurds (the YPG) and leave them vulnerable to a new military Turkey

True

Our readings for today suggest that American efforts to prevent civil wars in the Middle East could help reduce incidents of terrorism.

True

Political order is the patterns or regularities of social behavior that are induced or set by authority relationships or coercion.

True

President Eisenhower threatened nuclear strikes to contain and prevent small, regional conflicts.

True

Private information about the distribution of military power between two sides can lead to war by making leaders overestimate their military power and bargaining leverage in a dispute.

True

Some of the economic costs associated with US tariffs on aluminum and steel would fall on important US allies.

True

T/F: A major motive for granting the federal government more centralized power through the Constitution was the fear that under the Articles of Confederations, if individual states were attacked by a foreign power other states would not come to their aid.

True

T/F: According to jus in bello (right conduct in war), just wars discriminate between soldiers and civilians in their military operations, targeting soldiers while avoiding civilian casualties.

True

T/F: According to lecture, two important mechanisms that the US has used to bind its own power and make its authority legitimate are international organizations and its democratic form of government.

True

T/F: According to the summary from Attorney General William Barr, the Mueller investigation did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its efforts to interfere in the 2016 election.

True

T/F: According to the theory of comparative advantage, countries benefit from specialization and trade. Rather than producing all goods that their citizens might consume, countries specialize in those goods they can produce at lower costs and then exchange their surplus of these goods on world markets for goods that would be relatively more expensive to produce domestically.

True

T/F: Although international trade increases national income in the aggregate, it simultaneously redistributes income domestically and imposes income losses on some groups.

True

T/F: American intelligence agencies warned Congress that Russia continues to try to influence American politics by interfering in the 2018 midterm elections and exploiting tragedies like the Parkland school shooting in Florida to stoke more political conflict in the U.S.

True

T/F: An important assumption of the bargaining model of war is that war is costly.

True

T/F: As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump argued that U.S. interests would be served by improved relations with Russia.

True

T/F: As the recent North Korean missile tests demonstrate, the development of these missile capabilities helps the North Korean regime demonstrate the credibility of its threats associated with nuclear deterrence.

True

T/F: Before formally entering World War II in 1941, FDR successfully maneuvered around domestic pressure for nonintervention in the war and steadily increased American support for the war efforts of Great Britain through such initiatives as Lend Lease.

True

T/F: During the Cold War, the U.S. faced more opposition to its political and military intervention in the Third World than it did to its involvement in Europe.

True

T/F: During the Cold War, the US faced more opposition to its political and military intervention in the Third World than it did to its intervention in Europe.

True

T/F: For the U.S., denuclearization means that North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons in exchange for perhaps economic sanctions relief. However, for North Korea, denuclearization means giving up its nuclear weapons but it also means a Korean peninsula in which the United States ends its military presence and security alliance with South Korea.

True

T/F: German declaration of unrestricted submarine warfare played a large role in the United States declaring war on Germany.

True

T/F: In his address to the United Nations last week, President Trump associated state sovereignty with independence and cooperation and global governance with control and domination.

True

T/F: In his address to the United Nations, President Trump argued that regional actors bear the ultimate responsibility for fate of crises in places like the Middle East.

True

T/F: International trade and globalization after 1945 have helped to support peace among the great powers.

True

T/F: Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) can help to promote peace among states that possess nuclear weapons by raising the costs of starting a war to unacceptable levels.

True

T/F: President Eisenhower threatened nuclear strikes to contain and prevent small, regional conflicts.

True

T/F: Private information about the distribution of military power between two sides can lead to war by making leaders overestimate their military power and bargaining leverage in a dispute.

True

T/F: Russia interfered in the 2016 election as retaliation for American democracy promotion efforts and American sanctions imposed on Russia because of its annexation of Crimea.

True

T/F: The American Civil War was an important international event because its outcome arguably influenced the long-term viability of democratic governance more broadly in the world.

True

T/F: The Sinatra Doctrine was Gorbachev's belief that the Soviet satellite states in Eastern Europe should be allowed to go their own way politically and economically.

True

T/F: The South Korean government has been strongly advocating that the United States and North Korea issue a joint political statement at the Hanoi summit declaring the end of the Korean War as a way to build trust between the two countries.

True

T/F: The Treaty of Versailles helped cause World War II by destabilizing the Weimar government in Germany and pushing conservatives to pursue revisionist foreign policy goals.

True

T/F: The U.S. has primarily used economic sanctions to pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

True

T/F: The United States contributed to the Great Depression with a restrictive tariff policy and higher interest rates that slowed the flow of credit to Europe.

True

T/F: The United States often seeks to prevent nuclear proliferation, or the acquisition of nuclear weapons by more states, because of the risks that it will stimulate a nuclear arms race in which additional states acquire nuclear weapons.

True

T/F: The Versailles Treaty terminating World War I imposed significant reparations and territorial losses on Germany.

True

T/F: The controversy over the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has mobilized the base of both the Democratic and Republican parties.

True

T/F: The development of new missile capabilities helps the North Korean regime demonstrate the credibility of its threats associated with nuclear deterrence.

True

T/F: The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence rests largely on the credibility of threats to impose unacceptable military, economic, and human costs on a target.

True

T/F: The governments of the United States and Mexico have recently adopted cooperative policies to help reduce the size of the caravan from Central America that seeks to acquire political asylum in the United States.

True

T/F: The international political order set up after World War II included an important economic component focused on facilitating globalization and cutting barriers to international trade.

True

T/F: The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is designed to move auto manufacturing jobs from Mexico to the United States and Canada by requiring higher wages for auto workers.

True

T/F: The possession of nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence have helped support peace among the great powers after World War II.

True

T/F: The termination of civil wars is often inhibited by the risks associated with disarming after a peace agreement has been struck.

True

The Soviet Union sought to prevent the rise of German military power during the Cold War.

True

The U.S. political relationship with Saudi Arabia deteriorated under President Obama.

True

The United States contributed to the Great Depression with a restrictive tariff policy and higher interest rates that slowed the flow of credit to Europe.

True

The United States often seeks to prevent nuclear proliferation, or the acquisition of nuclear weapons by more states, because of the risk that it will stimulate a nuclear arms race in which additional states acquire nuclear weapons.

True

The United States sought to protect its allies in Western Europe during the Cold War through extended deterrence.

True

The Versailles Treaty terminating World War I imposed significant reparations and territorial losses on Germany

True

The Versailles Treaty terminating World War I imposed significant reparations and territorial losses on Germany.

True

The War for American Independence helped trigger the French Revolution and a series of new wars in Europe.

True

The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence rests largely on the credibility of threats to impose unacceptable military, economic, and human costs on a target.

True

The international political order set up after World War II included an important economic component focused on facilitating globalization and cutting barriers to international trade.

True

The outcomes of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Berlin crises during the Cold War were linked.

True

The possession of nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence have helped support peace among the great powers after World War II.

True

The termination of civil wars is often inhibited by the risks associated with disarming after a peace agreement has been struck.

True

Deterring a terrorist group is more difficult than deterring a state because terrorists have no "home address," making threats of retaliation less credible because of the uncertainty over where or against whom they might be directed.

True One way in which terrorists differ from states is that they are often incredibly difficult to locate. They can often easily cross borders and use difficult terrain to hide their activities. This makes deterrence very difficult because deterrence relies upon a credible threat of retaliation. If terrorists cannot be located, then threats of retaliation against them are not credible.

The attacks on September 11, 2001 helped prompt the formation of a new national security infrastructure, most notably the creation of the Department of Homeland Security.

True The formation of the Department of Homeland Security is one example of the new security infrastructure put into place after September 11. These organizations were tasked with both uncovering more information about the attacks and preventing future ones from occurring. The reach of the organizations tasked with counterterrorism, most notably the National Security Agency (NSA)

Deterrence is a psychological process built around issuing credible threats of punishment to convince an adversary to refrain from acting in a certain way.

True This is the definition of deterrence. Defense rests on the physical capacity to repel an attack with force. Instead, deterrence rests on threats to convince an adversary that any attack would result in a costly retaliatory strike that would eliminate any of the military and political gains from the initial attack

Delegating control over nuclear weapons to subordinates can strengthen the credibility of nuclear deterrence through something called the "threat that leaves something to chance."

True think of the Cuban Missile Crisis, so the idea is that they are "letting" the adversary get away with something (pretty much the adversary calling a bluff of deterrence) just so we can slap them on the wrist to show them we weren't bluffing while we knew what they were doing the whole time

In Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), each state can absorb a nuclear attack and still retain the capabilities to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike.

True - 2nd strike capability

According to lecture, authority is made up both coercion and legitimacy.

True According to the definition provided in lecture, politics is made up of authority and the allocation of scarce resources. Authority often rests upon some implicit or explicit coercion, like taxing or the threat of imprisonment. Authority often has a component of legitimacy, meaning that those that abide under the authority believe it to be legitimate. Lastly, in regards to the allocation of scarce resources, sometimes this is done through cooperation and at other times it is done through competition

The Sinatra Doctrine was Gorbachev's belief that the Soviet satellite states in Eastern Europe should be allowed to go their own way politically and economically.

True Frank Sinatra believed the Soviet Union really was not that bad. He actually invited Gorbachev to be a part of the Rat Pack Gorbachev's belief that the Soviet satellite states in Eastern Europe should be allowed to go their own way politically and economically. The Sinata Doctrine describes Gorbachev's view that the Soviet satellite states should be able to choose their own governments, policies, and economic systems. In this way, it is reminiscent of the Sinatra song "My Way."

During the Cold War, the US faced more opposition to its political and military intervention in the Third World than it did to its intervention in Europe.

True The US had much greater difficulty in its containment efforts in the developing world than it did in Europe. We covered two main reasons for this: a history of western imperialism in these regions, and the nature of the domestic threat of communism. Often communist ideology was intertwined with civil wars and independence movements. These two factors combined made containment and American intervention much more complicated in the developing world.

The United States sought to protect its allies in Western Europe during the Cold War through extended deterrence.

True - wanted to protect Germany through extended deterrence

How did the US influence subsequent international political order is 1945?

Truman and FDR -democracy promotion and support (think Marshall Plan aid) -nation building in Germany and Japan (reintegrated into Western order) -collective security through NATO -creation of new international organizations (UN, International Monetary Fund, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade [GATT], World Bank) -new international economic order around promoting globalization (Bretton Woods)

How did US influence subsequent international political order in 1945?

Truman and FDR - After WWII Truman created the Marshall Plan - an initiative created by the US to aide western europe and help rebuild their economy after wwii - Democracy promotion and support (Marshall Plan) - Nation building in Germany and Japan (reintegrated into Western order) - keeping those nations in check - New institutions were protected by incorporating Germany and Japan into the american security umbrella - Collective security through NATO - Creation of new international organizations (UN, International Monetary Fund, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade [GATT], World Bank) - New international economic order around promoting globalization (Bretton Woods)

Bargaining failures and war

Two key explanations for bargaining failure to reach a political settlement -private information coupled with incentives to misrepresent lead one side to offer insufficient concessions; other side opts to try and secure greater division of issue through war -commitment problem: difficulties associated with contracting over time

Hoffman, The Return of the Jihadi

Two sets of claims: -ISIS poses considerable terrorist threat ("boomerang effect") to Western nations -this threat rests on its unique organizational capacities and expansionist political goals Most of article about organizational capacities of ISIS -significant strategic/territorial gains in summer of 2014 -access to military hardware -independent revenue sources: oil, looting, taxation, trafficking, smuggling -political/organizational capacity: acting like a state -effective recruiter: drawing in large quantities of foreign fighters Along with Byman, get a view of ISIS and its relationship to Al Qaeda

Hegemonic Stability Theory

US as indispensable nation: is US leadership necessary/beneficial for international politics? Can you approach this question through hegemonic stability theory -concentration of global power facilitates globalization and peace ex: post 1945 period Equalized distribution of global power among many states facilitates competition, war, and restrictions on trade es: interwar period (1919-1939)

Counterterrorism often means intervening in civil war

USA takes sides in civil war and act as an intervention Byam argues that the US should intervene more - (opposes the other reading) - before a civil war occurs. These interventions can prevent civil wars that then strengthen terrorist groups - advocates for: -Statebuilding to prevent civil war and terrorism -Note THAT He does not advocate for spread of democracy in these regions - he is focusing on conflict resolution first - mean US is fostering political reform that is geared towards peace not democracy expansion

Structuring the peace: How do great powers influence international politics?

Victors write the rules of the new system and, as a consequence, shape its long term sustainability 1. set requirements for membership and redraw territorial boundaries: statehood and sovereignty 2. regime type of new members (US promotes democracy after 1919, 1945, 1991) 3. Distribution of military power 4. Enforcement mechanisms (reparations, League of Nations) 5. Division of territory among surviving great powers changes as well -important: shapes degree of satisfaction with new status quo and long term sustainability of the system

The Case for Just War

War as a necessary and lesser evil "As bad as war is, it may still be necessary if it prevents a greater harm." -Crawford, p. 7 Utilitarian approach: war can produce greater good than harm. -defeat of Nazi Germany in WWII -defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria

The US in WWII

War breaks out in Europe over Poland in September 1939 -Hitler steady program of territorial expansion in 1930s eventually challenged US enters war December 1941 following the attack on Pearl Harbor Two theaters connected by strong US-UK ties and Triparite Pact among Germany, Italy, and Japan (Sep. 1940)

It is difficult for scientists to figure out if their theories are true because

We can find out if theories are accurate, but accuracy is not the same thing as truth

How do we get from 9/11 to war in Afghanistan to war in Iraq? Over-determined...

Weapons of mass destruction -Saddam Hussein seeking to augment capabilities and would threaten allies in region -might give to terrorists -had used in the past (deterrence would not work) -Wolfowitz: settle on this because easier to sell domestically Iraq part of Axis of Evil and key enemy of the US -might harbor terrorists Leverage point to transform and democratize Middle East -Democratic Iraq would put pressure on autocratic countries in region to liberalize -needed bold solution to long term (two generations) problem of terrorism Better to fight the terrorists in a foreign theater (Cheney)

How do we get from 9/11 to war in Afghanistan to war in Iraq? Overdetermined

Weapons of mass destruction - what the administration wanted to focus on to attack and go to war with Iraq Saddam Hussein seeking to augment capabilities and would threaten allies in region- Might give to terrorists-Had used in the past (deterrence would not work) Wolfowitz: settle on this because easier to sell domestically Iraq part of Axis of Evil and key enemy of the United States Might harbor terrorists Leverage point to transform and democratize Middle East Democratic Iraq would put pressure on autocratic countries in region to liberalize - regime change could lessen appeal to join radical terrorist groups Needed bold solution to long term (two generations) problem of terrorism Better to fight the terrorists in a foreign theater (Cheney)

1. Cognitive Psychological approach: Actors do now use new information to update their beliefs. 2. Domestic-Politics approach: Some leaders prefer to fight, regardless of the outcome, in order to solidify their domestic-political position. 3. Constructivist approach: actors rely on warfare to define their identities

What 3 sets of ideas clash with the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR? Explain the ideas.

1. Economic interdependence reduces uncertainty, which in turn reduces conflict. 2. Anticipated conflict costs affect prewar bargaining demands. 3. More intense wars likely to be followed by longer periods of piece. 4. Mobilisation reveals credible information about capabilities and intention, possibly converging expectations and the avoidance of war.

What empirical findings derive from the BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR?

Not viewed as a breakdown of diplomacy, but a continuation of the bargaining process where negotiations will occur during and after the war.

What is "war" viewed as in the BARGAINING MODEL?

The allocation of scarce resources among unlimited and competing uses.

What is a critical component of political life?

The process of arriving at a mutual agreement.

What is bargaining?

The military capacity of a defeated state has been completely exhausted in an absolute war whereas in a limited war, both sides retain some ability to fight.

What is the difference between the ends of absolute war and the ends of limited war?

That fighting in war is always costly.

What key assumption do modern BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR scholars come to?

Clausewitz

What major ISS thinker's views fits the BARGAINING perspective?

Because one side's efforts to increase security may impinge on the security of a neighbour.

Why do some scholars perceive security as a scarce good?

A puzzle: if all wars costly, then why can't parties reach some peace settlement that would leave all participants better off than fighting?

Why war occurs - rest on understanding the factors that prevent competing orgs from reaching a peace settlement that leaves everyone better off Two prominent answers to this question: Private Information Commitment Problem

How did US influence subsequent international political order in 1919?

Wilson -National self determination (new states and anti-imperialism) -Support for democracy -Collective security in League of Nations

Treaty of Versailles (1919)

Wilson makes concessions to Allies to preserve League (of Nations) Many trace WWII origins here Harsh peace on Germany -loses navy, merchant marine, colonies, territory in the west (Alsace Lorraine) and east (Poland, Czech) -allies occupy Rhineland (industrial center of Europe) -allies (Wilson) demands democracy

What president was responsible for the Treaty of Versailles?

Woodrow Wilson The Treaty of Versailles was drafted by Woodrow Wilson but not ratified by the Senate and this caused problems The Treaty contributed to WWII

How did US influence subsequent international political order in 1919?

Woodrow Wilson -National self determination (new states and anti-imperialism) -Support for democracy -Collective security in League of Nations Focus on self determination in 1919 after wwi - wanted to create a new order he championed self determination - his efforts creating a new force that limits imperial rule USA supported creation of international organizations - instruments of int. Governance Wilson's ideas helped to define the rules of the games for future peace settlements we still see it today in USFP

Historical Overview of US Foreign Policy: Treaty of Versailles to the Origins of the Cold War

Woodrow Wilson and the Treaty of Versailles -How did the Treaty of Versailles contribute to WWII? -Was US foreign policy isolationist in the 1920s? -How did american policy contribute to the Great Depression? -How did the Great Depression contribute to WWII? US isolationism in the 1930s and WWII The collapse of wartime collaboration and the origins of the Cold War

Which international organization was discussed as possessing effective enforcement capacity? (Module 19)

World Trade Organization

Examples of international organizations (Module 19)

World Trade Organization, NATO, UN

Feb. 2017 standoff over Manbij

YPG (Syrian Kurds) holds significant territory in Northern Syria -significant ally of US in fight against ISIS Turkey concerned about YPG alliance with PKK Russian, American, and Syrian gov't troops separating armies of YPG and Turkey to keep the peace

According to realism, the best way to guarantee peace between any two nations is to establish__________

a balance of power

weapons of mass destruction definition

a chemical, biological or radioactive weapon capable of causing widespread death and destruction

grand strategy definition

a grand strategy states the means that will be used to achieve long-term objectives.

great power definition

a great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale many of these changes ratified or instituted at great power settlements that end these wars

flash point definition

a place, event, or time at which trouble, such as violence or anger, flares up Taiwan is long pointed to as potential flash point in US-Chine policy, often defined differently by both sides

Hegemonic stability theory definition

a theory of international relations, rooted in research from the fields of political science, economics, and history which indicates that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single nation-state is the dominant world power, or hegemon. the dominant state provides public goods that are necessary for international economy to flourish

concessions definition

a thing that is granted, especially in response to demands

Proxy war definition

a war instigated by a major power that does not itself become involved proxy war is one of the types of Third World Cold War conflicts

What happened when US and Soviet support of autocratic regimes was taken away at the end of the Cold War?

absence of foreign support and diminished expectation of great power intervention creates local incentives to challenge their rule internal collapse of Soviet Union, prompted in part by nationalism, creates many new states with mixed ethnic composition

acquiesces definition

accept something reluctantly but without protest Wilson acquiesced in harsh peace on Germany, particularly with respect to territorial acquisitions that did not confirm to principle of self-determination to protect League of Nations

who are Kurds?

an ethnic group in the Middle East

National Missile Defense as a Threat to MAD

anti ballistic weapon system that is designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles If effective, could undermine an adversary's second strike capability and threaten mutually assured destruction A state cannot retaliate after first strike even if their nuclear weapons survived because their missiles can be destroyed mid flight

Most modern alliances __________.

are formalized in written treaties

Brinkmanship

as making threats "that leave something to chance." This strategy of brinksmanship employs and manipulates risk to increase the credibility of a threat to use extreme force, in this case a nuclear attack They might send aircraft to conflict zone during a crisis "the threat that leaves something to chance" More complicated to have the will to follow through with their threats "The threat that leaves something to chance" When leaders delegate decisions that may escalate crisis to military to commanders by sending them into crisis situations they raise the risk that something can go wrong and start a nuclear war -

Which of the following was discussed as a source of the commitment problem in war?

balances in ethnic or religious identity among groups within a society A shift in the balance of political power balance between contending groups, often prompted by some change in government Shifts in the internal distribution of income or wealth among groups within a society

In Module 2, the Lord of the Rings clip that presented the "dispute" between the two wizards (Gandalf and Saruman) over whether to join with, or to fight against, Sauron was used to illustrate the concepts of ________ and __________.

balancing, bandwagoning

What happened to American and Soviet support at the end of the Cold War?

both US and Soviet Union supported many autocratic regimes with foreign aid and military transfers. However, the end of the Cold War brings end of American and Soviet support for these regimes

The typical outcome in the Prisoner's Dilemma is that __________.

both prisoners confess, thereby ensuring each is worse off than if they both did not confess

The Module 4 lecture on the Cuban Missile Crisis, used the Soviet decision to develop and produce medium range ballistic missiles instead of the intercontinental missiles can be best explained by:

bureaucratic politics

Although Hitler may have caused WW II, from a scientific perspective this argument is problematic because it_____

cannot be tested

Thomas Hobbes Leviathan

coercion dilemma - this capacity to coerce and impose a settlement on conflicting groups can also be exploited to accumulate power and wealth by seizing it from others. This violent redistribution of resources among individuals or groups is sometimes referred to as predation

UN cooperative defense is an example of __________.

collective security

In the lecture we discussed the movie The Matrix, where the character "Cypher" requests that Agent Smith will allow him to be someone important and rich, "like an actor." Although Cypher is apparently unaware of this, Agent Smith actually has a significant ___________ because there is no way to demonstrate convincingly that he will follow through on his promise.

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