Human-Induced Change: The Case of Climate Change

Coastal Erosion/ storm surge flooding (Adaption)

Seawalls, levees, man-made flood plains

Ben Santer was accused of

"Doctoring the report" to make the science seem firmer than it was

George Monbiot, 2006, Heat

"It is fair to say that the professional denial industry has delayed effective global action on climate change by years"

Why is public opinion important

"at the end of the day it's the democracies, it's the population, [that] have to give permission to the governments to actually do something. And they're not going to give the permission if they don't fully understand the problem."

The oil industry payed

$5m to train climate scientists to disprove prevailing scientific evidence

Droughts responceses

- Desalinization plants - Efficiency: Landscaping, Household use (size compared to industrial) - Forestry: Thinning - reduce fuel loads

Climate Change Mitigation

- Developing means to adapt - Reducing carbon emissions - Active measures to counteract effects

The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition (TASSC)

- Discredit EPA report - Fight anti-smoking legislation - Pass legislation favorable to tobacco industry - Encourage the public to question science in general

Alpine Tourism Opportunities

- Diversification: Restaurants/ shops - Seasons/ activities - Snow making - Aspect - Grooming (winter and summer)

Atmospheric CO2 sources and accumlation

- Emissions from fossil fuels - Emissions from land use changes

We don't worry too much about things we don't think are going to happen to us

- Especially when expected to happen in the future - Will climate change affect you in the next 10 years

Adaptation Responses: Heat (Built)

- Fans, a/c units - Energy efficiency: insulation

Natural Defenses

- Green roofs/ parks - Permeable paving - Lighter colored building material

Coastal Erosion/ storm surge flooding (Migration)

- Large scale: Low-lying islands - Small scale: Farther inland

Global Warming Potential (GWP): Calculated from its

- Lifetime - Ability to absorb IR radiation (Radiative forcing)

Adaptation (Incremental)

- Maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale - Extensions of actions and behaviours that already reduce the losses or enhance the benefits of natural variations in climate and extreme events

Examples of Transformational adaptation (Water efficient maize)

- Major food and cash crop in much of east Africa - but drought! - Higher yielding drought-tolerant maize varieties - Distribute the seed to farmers for 25 Y no royalties + best agronomic practices

Combating spatial bias

- Make effects local

Combating optimism bia

- Make effects personal - Make it about now, not later

Combating confirmation bias

- Make it relevant: talk about "green economy"; "health", or "your children" instead of climate change

Atmospheric CO2 sinks

- Oceans - Land

Causes of Natural Climate Change

- Orbital variations - Solar variability - Volcanism - Greenhouse effect

Our opinions are formed through

- Our values, worldviews - Family, friends - Own experience

Why Transformative (Very vulnerable regions and activities)

- Physical setting - Vulnerable populations - Marginal productivity

It's not about the science, but (1)

- Political views and ideology - Conservative views colour one's interpretation of the science, which is seen as threatening - IPCC consensus seen as a threat to trade and industry - No (international) regulation (1)

Are fear appeals effective

- Problem is made very big, abstract - Don't generally provide people with solutions - Don't take into account that people perceive environmental risks in different ways

Adaptation (Reactive)

- Re-gain stability after extreme events - Rallying point: But short-sighted

Natural Defenses (Co-benefits)

- Recreation - Well-being/ aesthetics - Economic opportunities - Wildlife habitat

Environmental justice

- Responsibility - Who pays

Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

- Scientific 'concensus' process (global) - Ongoing reporting since 1990 - Rich archive of information - 3 Working Groups: science, impacts, mitigation

Fox News confirms existing beliefs of climate sceptics

- Scientists arguing against human-caused - "climate change is caused by the sun" - "climate change is a hoax"

Climate Change Mitigation (Active measures to counteract effects)

- Sequestration: removing CO2 from atmosphere - Geoengineering (e.g. limit solar radiation)

Mismatch in timing between political impact and environmental impact

- Short term versus long term - Public opinion important

Concerted effort to discredit scientific evidence of negative effects of

- Smoking - Acid rain - Global warming

Why CO2 is key

- Transferred to the atmosphere quickly via several exchanges - It remains longer in the atmosphere (Easy come, not so easy go) - There is a lot of it and it is increasing

Why Transformative

- Very vulnerable regions and activities - Very large changes

It's not about the science, but (2)

- Vested interests (e.g. fossil fuel industry) - Accepting science of anthropogenic climate change means we have to do something about it - Carbon taxes, lifestyle changes are a threat to capitalism

Droughts affect

- Water supplies - Agriculture - Forests - Energy - Plants, animals, and ecosystems

Mechanisms of change

- Who is driving it - Who takes ownership

Total temperature increase 1880-2012

0.85 +/- 0.20 degrees

Thermal expansion

1 degree warming would cause a rise of about 0.5 m (but varies spatially)

Average sea level rise of

1.7 mm/yr from 1900 to 2000 from tide gauges on coastines

Little Ice Age

1500-1700 AD

Rise of about 3.2 mm/yr since

1993 measured by satellite altimeters

Medieval warm period

800-1000 AD

2015 CO2 concentration

> 400 ppm

Example of a Pro-active, Incremental adaptation

A power company increases its generating capacity in response to climate predictions that suggest an increase in the number of days customers will need to run their a/c units

People make subjective judgments

About environmental riskes

Use of visualizations can help

Address spatial bias - Possible effects for local area

Mitigation

Addresses the causes

Agroforestry in Africa

Agriculture: - Drought tolerant varieties - Agroforestry

Media & communication campaign

Aimed to undermine climate science (FOX News)

Greenhouse gases are the

Amplifier of glacial - interglacial global temperature and sea level change

"Delaying action is a false economy. For every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020,

An additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions."

Adaptation (Proactive)

Anticipatory - Uncertainty - Cost - Institutional/ Behavioral barriers

Creating doubt: climate change (Attack)

Attack climate change supporters

Creating doubt: tobacco (Attack)

Attack opponents of the tobacco industry

Climate change denial

Attempts to downplay, deny or dismiss scientific consensus on climate change

Some climate change impacts are far-reaching

But no two communities experience impacts in the same way

Decadal warming well explained

By increase in greenhouse gases

820-950 billion tonnes of

C -> 2 degrees global warming

People form beliefs about

Climate change in different ways

50% of Americans agree that

Climate change is caused by human activity

61% of Americans believe

Climate change is happening

Adaptation

Deals with the effects

Examples of Transformational adaptation (Relocation)

Different places and locations: Carteret islands in Papua New Guinea are - Residents migrating as a result of sea level rise - Australian aid project is currently preparing islanders for livelihoods in Australia

Ice Age cycles caused by variations in

Distribution of Earth's insolation due to long term changes in axis and orbit

Contemporary Climate Change

Driven by anthropogenic greenhouse effect superimposed upon natural variability

Quaternary glacial cycles

Driven by natural variability (principally Milankovitch orbital forcing) but with greenhouse effect as an important feedback mechanism

570 billion tonnes C

Emitted since 1870

Practice regional climate models

Enable more accurate projections

Human activity has

Enhanced the natural greenhouse effect

Mountain communities

Especially vulnerable: - River flooding - Runoff timing - Fire - Tourism

Superimposed on Ice Age cycles are smaller short-term

Fluctuations caused by variations in the Sun's output

Example of Incremental adaptation

Forest thinning as wildfire protection - Scale - Re-building

Important to understand how people

Form opinions about climate change

Knowledge-deficit approach

Give people more evidence, more facts: - Increased awareness about climate change - Increased likelihood people will take action

Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap outgoing radiation causing warming of Earth

Urban

Heat Islands

Projected Direct Impacts (to 2100 AD): Heatwaves

Heatwaves are expected to increase

Predicted return period 2080-2100AD for

Heavy rainfall events that currently (1986-2005) occur every 20 years (high emissions pathway)

Low cost of action versus the

High cost of inaction: Social cost of climate change

As a result of climate change New Zealand is predicted to be

Hotter, Wetter and Dryer depending on where you are and what season it is

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

How much a given mass of a particular GHG contributes to global warming

Adaptation (Natural systems)

Human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects

Climate has played a critical role in

Human-environment interaction throughout history and prehistory

97 out of 100 climate experts agree

Humans are causing global warming

Attempts to discredit work of Ben Santer

IPCC lead author of chapter on anthropogenic climate change

Restoration of wetlands, mangroves, dunes (Co-benefits)

Increased habitat for biodiversity, aesthetics, recreation, storm protection

Example of Proactive adaptation to climate change

Increasing green spaces in a city that is expected to have increased incidence of heat waves

Each molecule of methane has as much effect on

Infrared radiation as about 60 molecules of CO2

Albedo is a

Internal climate factor that affects climate change

Projected Direct Impacts (to 2100 AD): Sea level

Low-lying ground, including many major cities of the world, may be inundated by sea level rise

Less direct experience with extreme weather events

Lower concern about climate change

Discredit work of

Michael Mann

Adaptation (Human systems)

Moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities

Increase in methane dies away

Much more quickly than one CO2

Is recent warming trend

Natural variability or something else

Localized effects of climate change necessitate

Necessitate local scale adaptation activities

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

New set of scenarios introduced by IPCC 2013 (AR5) and used for the new climate model simulations

Climate change denial (Government intervention)

No government intervention based on "junk science"

For action more facts is important

Not always effective

Giving people more facts is

Not going to be sufficient

Oil industry funds research

Of climate deniers

Creating doubt: tobacco (Science)

Pay scientists to produce studies defending your product

Creating doubt: climate change (Science)

Pay scientists to produce studies that say climate change is a hoax

Confirmation bias

People have a tendency to favor information that confirms existing values and beliefs - Remember information selectively - Interpret information in a biased way

Gas company political lobbying

Position global warming as "theory" rather than "fact"

Projected Direct Impacts (to 2100 AD): Precipitation

Precipitation will vary markedly (some regions wetter; some drier)

Projected Direct Impacts (to 2100 AD): Global temperature

RCP-dependent increase in global temperature over the next century

Example of a Pro-active, Transformational

Relocation of infrastructure outside the floodplain of a snow-melt fed river in anticipation of changes in runoff timing

Combination of volcanic eruptions and solar change would have

Resulted in small cooling over the last 50 years - Climate change due to greenhouse effect

Risk perception

Risk is subjective - Uncertainty in estimates of climate science

We are fast approaching the point where:

Something is happening, but its too late to do anything about it

Local stakeholders are uniquely positioned to implement

Strategic adaptive measures and increase community resilience

Limiting climate change will require

Substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions

Each of the last 3 decades has been

Successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850

Optimism bias

The belief that, compared to other people, you experience: - more positive events - less negative events

There has been an increase in

The mean about of extreme events - Less cold weather - More hot and record hot weather

The same facts about climate change lead

To different interpretations and opinions

Climate change communications need

To take biases into account

Volcanic eruptions emit a range of gases and particles.

Typically sulfur rich (SO2) eruptions - result in short term cooling

Collectively, who is most at risk form increasing frequency of heat waves

Urban populations

Creating doubt: climate change (PR)

Use PR to spread doubt about the science linking human activity to climate change

Creating doubt: tobacco (PR)

Use PR to spread doubt about the science linking tobacco to cancer

When we talk about adapting to climate change

We are really talking about responding to the impacts

Global impacts versus local impacts

We worry less about risks that happen in other places

Spatial bias

When people believe environmental risks are more likely to happen in more distant areas

Calcareous shells reflect chemistry of ocean (Infrastructure Changes)

e.g. Stilts

Melting of alpine glaciers

~ 0.2 to 0.5 m rise (full potential)

Adaptation Responses: Heat (Community preparedness)

- Alert systems - Access/ transportation to cooling centers - Education

Planning horizons

- Anticipatory adaptation: Difficult - Incremental adaptation could be maladaptive in the long-run

Regional complexity reflects

- Atmospheric circulation patterns - Seasonal variability

Adaptation Responses: Heat Waves

- Built: Increased power generating capacity - Community preparedness

Climate change denial (Science)

- Cast doubt on the science & scientists - Junk science: scientific data, research or analysis that is considered fraudulent

Why Transformative (Very large changes)

- Changes beyond the likely range of current assessments - Local "hotspots" where global change is amplified - Tipping points that cause rapid climate change impacts in certain regions or globally

Adaptation (Transformational)

- Changes the fundamental attributes of a system in response to climate and its effects - Enlarged scale or intensity - New Adaptations - Different Places and Locations

Human assisted Adaptation in natural systems

- Creation of migration corridors - Transplanting plants/ trees - Manual removal and transport of trapped species

Indirect impacts of climate change

- Extinction rates increase - Diseases spread from the tropics - Outbreaks of pests - Cold countries, may enjoy an increase in agricultural productivity - Other regions may become too hot and dry for agriculture: Fire risk increases

Melting of major ice sheets

- Greenland: ~7m rise (full potential) - Western Antarctica: ~3.5 m rise (full potential)

Co-benefits

- Human health (improving air quality - Economic benefits (new industries)

What is currently being done

- Hurricanes: Levees vs Wetlands - Heat waves in cities: Increased infrastructure vs Urban Greening

Temperature change for the end of the 21st century

- Likely to exceed 1.5 degrees relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. - Likely to exceed 2 degrees for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 - More likely than not to exceed 2 degrees for RCP4.5

Sequestration (sinks) in:

- Lithosphere - Biosphere - Ocean

Out of 233 total countries where does New Zealand Rank in terms of direct risks from sea level rise

42nd

The strongest threat to biodiversity comes not from climate change itself but

In combination with human activity - Anthropogenic climate change - Intensified resource utilization - Introduced alien species

Much uncertainty

In precipitation projections

Since 2005 both Greenland and West Antarctic

Ice sheets have been losing mass

Examples of Transformational adaptation (Re-greening)

Scale or intensity: Re-greening of the Sahel - Drought-prone belt bordering the Sahara - Small-scale autonomous decisions turned large-scale adaptation - Underground root systems as managed forestry - increased resilience