Midterm
Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc
"After this, therefore because of it." A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer assumes that the fact that one event came after another establishes that it was caused by it.
Cum Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc
"With this, therefore because of it." A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer assumes that the fact that two events happen at about the same time establishes that one caused the other.
Downplayers example:
"so called" scientist
****What is balance of considerations reasoning and an IBE
** weighing arguments**
2 parts of an argument
1. Premise 2. Conclusion
What are three guidelines of thinking critically about Generalizations from a sample?
1. The more atypical the sample, the weaker the generalization 2. The less diversified the sample the weaker the generalization. Generalizations based on samples too small to accurately mirror the overall population are relatively weak.
Miscalculating Probabilities
1:03 24 Ex. Coin flip, 5 times comes up heads but assume next is heads but odds don't change
Vagueness:
A concept is vague if we cannot say with certainty what it includes and what it excludes.
Generalization from Exceptional Cases
A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer arrives at a general statement by citing an atypical supporting case.
untestable explanation
A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer offers an explanation that could not be tested even in principle.
Slippery Slope
A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer rests a conclusion on an unsupported warning that is controversial and tendentious, to the effect that something will progress by degrees to an undesirable outcome.
Hasty Generalization
A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer tries to support a general statement or rule by citing too few supporting cases.
Interested party:
A person who stands to gain from our believing his or her claim. Ex. person makes commission on sales
Cognitive Bias
A psychological factor that unconsciously affects belief formation
Subjective thinking
A statement that is made true or false by the speaker or writer's thinking it is true or false.
Objective thinking
A statement that is not made true or false by the speaker or writer's thinking it is true or false. Measurable.
Bandwagon Effect
A tendency to align our belief system with the belief systems of those around us.
Overconfidence Effect
A tendency to overestimate the % of correct answers we have given to questions on a subject we are not experts about
Negativity Bias
A tendency to weight negative information more heavily than positive information.
Advertising
A written or spoken media message designed to interest consumers in purchasing a product or service.
Deductive argument
An argument intended to prove or demonstrate, rather than merely support, a conclusion.
Valid deductive argument
An argument such that it would be self contradictory to maintain that the conclusion is false and the premise is true.
Inductive argument
An argument that is supposed to raise the probability of its conclusion but it is so weak it fails to do so
What is a population in a sample?
An identifiable group of things. EX.
Bandwagon
An unconscious tendency to modify one's views to make them consistent with those of other people.
Loss Aversion
Being more strongly motivated to avoid a loss than to accrue a gain.
Confirmation Bias
Belief bias. important example of a "cognitive bias'. We will naturally seek information that confirms our existing position rather than to consider contradictory evidence.
Blogs
Blogs are simply journals, the vast majority of them put up by individuals, that are left open to the public on an Internet site.
Stereotype
Broad generalization about groups
Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. Reported after Clinton and Obama debate: " James, a Clinton advisor, declared his candidate the 'winner' in the debate, saying she'd made her case more strongly"
Claim that can't properly be evaluated
Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. Comment from an acquaintance: "I saw Bigfoot with my own eyes! It was huge!"
Claim that cannot properly be evaluated
Appeal to Tradition, Common Practice, Popularity
Common practice - "Everybody does X. Therefore it's right to do X" EX.everybody breaks the speed limit. Therefore, its right to break the speed limit. Tradition-"X is a traction. Therefore it is right to think or do X" Applying to a traditional sense" Popularity:"Everybody does X, therefore its right to do X"
2 kinds of logics
Deduction - logic of proof Induction - logic of support
Deductive/Inductive: All mammals are warm-blooded creatures, and all whales are mammals. Therefore, all whales are warm-blooded creatures.
Deductive
Deductive/Inductive: I didn't get enough sleep last night; therefore I should get to bed earlier tonight.
Deductive
Deductive/Inductive: It's wrong to hurt someone's feelings, and that is exactly what you are doing when you speak to me like that.
Deductive
Deductive/Inductive: Mike must belong to the Bartenders and Beverage Union Local 165, since almost every Las Vegas bartender does.
Deductive
Deductive/Inductive: No mayten tree is deciduous, and all nondeciduous trees are evergreens. It follows that all mayten trees are evergreens.
Deductive
Deductive vs. Inductive argument
Deductive: An argument intended to prove or demonstrate, rather than merely support, a conclusion Inductive: An argument that is supposed to raise the probability of its conclusion but it is so weak it fails to do so
Ridicule/Sarcasm
Different Tone
Poisoning the Well
Dismissing someone before they said it
Credibility based on Physical Characteristics
Do they look you in the eyes while talking? Do they sweat a lot? Nervous laugh? A study notes that being taller, louder, and assertive increases your credibility.
Downplayers
Downplays his/her credentials, seems less important
Stereotype example
Dumb blonde
Emotive meanings/ rhetorical force of words example:
Example: "Government guaranteed health" "Government takeover of health care"
Deductive Reasoning Example
Example: Premises: Bill Clinton is taller than George W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter is shorter than George W. Bush. Conclusion: Therefore, Bill Clinton is taller than Jimmy Carter.
Euphemism Example:
Example: sleeping around passing away
Inductive Reasoning example
Example: After 2 P.M. the traffic slows to a crawl on the Bay Bridge. Therefore, it probably does the same thing on the Golden Gate Bridge.
Negativity Bias Example
Example: Believing a nasty rumor
Vagueness Example
Example: Butte City is a small town. bald, torture, reckless
False Dillema Example
Example: Either increase the number of troops in Iraq or the terrorists will be attacking U.S. cities.
Ad Hominem Example:
Example: I disagree with you. Well your shirt is ugly
Strong Inductive Argument Example:
Example: If Juan is a fragglemop, then Juan is a snipette. Juan is not a snipette. Therefore, Juan is not a fragglemop.
Scare Tactics Example:
Example: If you do this, you will die!
Ambiguity Example:
Example: Jessica is renting her house.
Innuendo Example:
Example: Mark's been spending a lot of time with Allison, if you know what I mean.
Ridicule/Sarcasm Example:
Example: McCain made a great speech last night. Everyone awakened feeling refreshed
Poisoning the Well Example:
Example: Senator Clinton will give a talk . It'll be baloney
Perfectionist fallacy example:
Example: Since gun laws can't prevent shootings, we should not have any gun laws.
Bandwagon Effect Example
Example: Sports
Heuristics example:
Example: We think of an event more often, thus making us more likely to assume the event is common. Airplane crashes
Loaded Question Example:
Example: When did you stop cheating on your gf?
Red Herring/Smoke Screen Example:
Example: Yes the president's strategy is working. The Dems haven't come up with anything better.
Subjective examples
Example: taste, color, music, entertainment
Objective examples
Example: time, temperature, smoking = cancer
T/F: Issues can be resolved only through scientific testing.
False
T/F: Whether a passage contains an argument depends on how long it is.
False
T/F: You can reach a conclusion without believing it is true.
False
T/F:Critical thinking consists in attacking other people's ideas.
False
T/F: All opinions are subjective.
False. As an example of an opinion that isn't subjective, we (the authors) are of the opinion there is life somewhere else in the universe. If there is life, our opinion is true. If there isn't, then it is false. We don't know whether our opinion is true or false, but we do know that it is one or the other, and we know that whether it is true or false is independent of whether we think there is life somewhere else in the universe.
Dyphemism Example:
Geezer
Heuristics
General rules we unconsciously follow in estimating probabilities.
Ambiguity
Having more than one meaning. An ambiguous claim is one that can be interpreted in more than one way and whose meaning is not made clear by the context. See also Semantic ambiguity; Syntactic ambiguity.
Hyperbole
Hype, exaggeration
Hyperbole Example:
I've told you a million times.
Perfectionist fallacy
If it can't be perfect, it should not be done at all, all or nothing
Induction fallacy vs Relevance Fallacy
Induction fallacy: Statement made but its WEAK to argue. Relevance Fallacy: Irrelevant to the argument
Deductive/Inductive: Believe in God?Yes, of course I do. The universe couldn't have arisen by chance, could it? Besides, I read the other day that more and more physicists believe in God, based on what they're finding out about the big bang and all that stuff.
Inductive
Deductive/Inductive: Biden would have made a fine president. After all, he made a fine vice president.
Inductive
Deductive/Inductive: From an office memo:"I've got a good person for your opening in Accounting. Jesse Brown is his name, and he's as sharp as they come. Jesse has a solid background in bookkeeping, and he's good with computers. He's also reliable, and he'll project the right image. He will do a fine job for you."
Inductive
Deductive/Inductive: I've never met a golden retriever with a nasty disposition. I bet there aren't any.
Inductive
Deductive/Inductive: Miss Scarlet's fingerprints were on the knife used to kill Colonel Mustard. Furthermore, he was killed in the pantry, and she was the only person who had a key to the pantry. Clearly she killed the colonel.
Inductive
Deductive/Inductive: Sherry seems right for the job to me. She speaks French, knows biology, has people skills, and makes a great impression. The only down side is, she can't start until October. That pretty much eliminates her, unfortunately.
Inductive
Deductive/Inductive: Sparky is scratching again. He must either have a skin infection or flea bites.
Inductive
Deductive/inductive: The brains of rats raised in enriched environments with a variety of toys and puzzles weigh more than the brains of rats raised in more barren environments. Therefore, the brains of humans will weigh more if humans are placed in intellectually stimulating environments.
Inductive
Deductive/inductive: We've interviewed 200 professional football players, and 60 percent of them favor expanding the season to twenty games. Therefore, 60 percent of all professional football players favor expanding the season to twenty games.
Inductive
Inductive vs Deductive Reasoning
Inductive: either relatively strong or relatively weak, which depends on the degree to which its premise affects the probability of the conclusion. The premise supports the conclusion but does not demonstrate or prove it. Deductive: either sound or unsound; whether it is the one or the other does not depend on whether anyone is persuaded by it. The premise if true, proves or demonstrates its conclusion.
What are the 3 types of ads?
Logos, Ethos, Pathos
Euphemism
Make it sound better
Dyphemism
Make it sound worse
Repetition
Making the point over and over.
Straw Man
Misrepresenting another person's position.
"There is nothing either good or bad but that thinking makes it so" expresses a doctrine known as ___
Moral Subjectivism
Objective/Subjective: On a baseball field, the center of the pitcher's mound is 59 ft. from home plate
Objective
Objective/Subjective: Pit Vipers can strike a warm-blooded animal even when it is pitch dark
Objective
Credibility of a website
On the Internet, whether by website or email, the average person has no idea where the stuff on the computer screen comes from.
Ad Hominem
Personal attack on someone
Repetition Example:
Political signs on the street
Relevance Fallacies
Premise are logically irrelevant to the conclusion fallacy that is not relevant to an argument. Irrelevant from an argument.
False Dillema
Presents something as "either/or" extreme divergent, nothing in between
Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. According to Funk and Wagnalls Hammond World Atlas, the three longest rivers in the world are the Nile, the Amazon, and the Yangtze
Prob true
Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. "On the early 1800, bears were a nuisance to settlers in upstate NY" - Smithsonian
Probably True
Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. "The yearly cancer rate for men in Scotland is 130 cases per 100,000." - "Atlas of Cancer in Scotland," World Health Organization (an agency of the United Nations)
Probably true
Relevance Fallacy vs Rhetorical Device
Relevance Fallacy: The statement is flawed making the argument invalid. Rhetorical Device: Technique to evoke emotion to audience
Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. University student to a professor: "I'm sorry I missed the test on Thursday, My grandmother died and I had to go home"
Requiring further documentation before judgement
Loaded Question:
Rests on an assumption . A question that implies an answer
How does sample size affect error margin and confidence levels?
Sample of 1500 the error margin is low.
Scare Tactics
Scare us into accepting or doing something
Objective/Subjective: Fallon tells better jokes than Colbet
Subjective
Objective/Subjective: Green is the most pleasant color to look at
Subjective
Objective/Subjective: Nicki Minaj can fake a great English accent
Subjective
Objective/Subjective: Opera would be easier to listen to if they'd leave out the singing
Subjective
Objective/Subjective: Your teacher would be crazy not to complain if you text in class
Subjective
Subjective vs Objective
Subjective: A statement that is made true or false by the speaker or writer's thinking it is true or false. Objective: A statement that is not made true or false by the speaker or writer's thinking it is true or false.
Innuendo
Suggesting you're not saying something but you are
Proof Surrogate
Suggests evidence with out citing
What is an attribute of interest in samples?
The attribute ascribed to a thing or things in the conclusion of an inductive generalization, inductive argument from analogy, or statistical syllogism
Weak Inductive argument
The less likely it makes the conclusion, the weaker the argument
T/F: A claim is what you use to state an opinion or a belief.
True
T/F: All arguments have a conclusion.
True
T/F: All arguments have a premise.
True
T/F: All factual claims are true.
True
T/F: Beliefs, judgments, and opinions are the same thing.
True
T/F: Every issue requires an argument for a resolution
True
T/F: Relativism is the idea that if the standards of evidence or truth are different for two cultures, there is no independent way of saying which standards are the correct ones
True
T/F: Statements, claims, and assertions are the same thing.
True
T/F: The claim "Death Valley is an eyesore" expresses a subjective opinion
True
T/F: The conclusion of an argument states a position on an issue.
True
T/F: When a question has been asked, an issue has been raised.
True
T/F: It is not possible to reason correctly if you do not think critically
True 1
Availability Heuristic
Unconsciously assigning a probability to a type of event on the basis of how often one thinks of events of that type
Why is vagueness used?
Vagueness is often intentionally used to avoid giving a clear, precise answer
Critical thinking
We think critically when we rationally evaluate our own or others' thinking.
In-Group Bias
We view groups that we are part of more favorable compared to groups we are not part of. May take the form of employing stereotypes to explain the behavior of "outsiders."
Induction Fallacies
Weak arguments, arguments that are supposed to raise the probability of their conclusions but are so weak they fail
Claim
When a belief (judgement, opinion) is asserted in a declarative statement.
Questions to evaluate a claim and its source
When does a claim's content present a credibility problem? When does the source of a claim lack credibility?
Wikipedia as a source
You should be especially wary of recent articles; they are more likely to contain uncorrected errors that will eventually disappear as knowledgeable people visit the page and put right whatever mistakes are present.
Cause and Effect Fallacy
a mistaken belief that what occurs before some event is logically the cause of it
Initial Plausibility
a rough assessment of how credible a claim seems to us.
Sound deductive argument
a valid argument with all true premises
What is generalizing from a sample?
all or most of a sample **
Argument
an attempt to support or prove a contention by providing a reason for accepting it
eye witness testimony
any firsthand account given by an individual of an event they have seen. Even though eyewitness testimony can be persuasive before a judge and jury, it may be much more unreliable than we generally give it credit for being
argument vs non-argument
argument has at least one premise that supports a conclusion. It contains a factual claim and an inferential claim. arguments aim to prove some proposition as true rather than merely expressing a belief. On the other hand, non-arguments are statements or beliefs or opinions, reports, loosely associated statements, warnings, single condition statements, explanations, illustrations, etc.
Ethos
being persuaded by a speaker's personal attributes (background, reputation, etc)
The first order of business when it comes to thinking critically about an issue:
c. To determine what exactly the issue is.
Rhetorical Device
device used to produce effective speaking or writing. Technique to evoke emotion to audience.
Inductive reasoning
either relatively strong or relatively weak, which depends on the degree to which its premise affects the probability of the conclusion. The premise supports the conclusion but does not demonstrate or prove it.
Deductive reasoning
either sound or unsound; whether it is the one or the other does not depend on whether anyone is persuaded by it. The premise if true, proves or demonstrates its conclusion.
What are random samples, error margins, and confidence levels?
error margin - plus or minus a certain percentage
Red Herring/Smoke Screen
irrelevancy brought to "support" a claim
Emotive meanings/ rhetorical force of words:
positive or negative associations of a word
Straw Man Example
someone who says, "taxes should be lower, but we need more money to fund schools"
Pathos
speaker can persuade us by connecting with us on a personal level by appealing emotions
Logos
speaker may persuade us by using info and arguments
What is an Argument from Analogy?
take 2 things and say they are similar but sometimes aren't used correctly. EX. comparing smoking tobacco vs vaping
Background information
that immense body of justified beliefs that consists of facts we learn from our own direct observations and facts we learn from others.
Strong Inductive Argument
the more likely the premise of an inductive argument makes the conclusion, the stronger the argument
Webcheckers example:
truthorfiction.com snopes.com
Webcheckers
website checking tool for webmasters
Gambler's Fallacy
when we don't realize independent events are independent. "Hot Streak" Winning 5 hands and expecting