Midterm

Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc

"After this, therefore because of it." A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer assumes that the fact that one event came after another establishes that it was caused by it.

Cum Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc

"With this, therefore because of it." A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer assumes that the fact that two events happen at about the same time establishes that one caused the other.

Downplayers example:

"so called" scientist

****What is balance of considerations reasoning and an IBE

** weighing arguments**

2 parts of an argument

1. Premise 2. Conclusion

What are three guidelines of thinking critically about Generalizations from a sample?

1. The more atypical the sample, the weaker the generalization 2. The less diversified the sample the weaker the generalization. Generalizations based on samples too small to accurately mirror the overall population are relatively weak.

Miscalculating Probabilities

1:03 24 Ex. Coin flip, 5 times comes up heads but assume next is heads but odds don't change

Vagueness:

A concept is vague if we cannot say with certainty what it includes and what it excludes.

Generalization from Exceptional Cases

A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer arrives at a general statement by citing an atypical supporting case.

untestable explanation

A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer offers an explanation that could not be tested even in principle.

Slippery Slope

A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer rests a conclusion on an unsupported warning that is controversial and tendentious, to the effect that something will progress by degrees to an undesirable outcome.

Hasty Generalization

A fallacy that occurs when a speaker or writer tries to support a general statement or rule by citing too few supporting cases.

Interested party:

A person who stands to gain from our believing his or her claim. Ex. person makes commission on sales

Cognitive Bias

A psychological factor that unconsciously affects belief formation

Subjective thinking

A statement that is made true or false by the speaker or writer's thinking it is true or false.

Objective thinking

A statement that is not made true or false by the speaker or writer's thinking it is true or false. Measurable.

Bandwagon Effect

A tendency to align our belief system with the belief systems of those around us.

Overconfidence Effect

A tendency to overestimate the % of correct answers we have given to questions on a subject we are not experts about

Negativity Bias

A tendency to weight negative information more heavily than positive information.

Advertising

A written or spoken media message designed to interest consumers in purchasing a product or service.

Deductive argument

An argument intended to prove or demonstrate, rather than merely support, a conclusion.

Valid deductive argument

An argument such that it would be self contradictory to maintain that the conclusion is false and the premise is true.

Inductive argument

An argument that is supposed to raise the probability of its conclusion but it is so weak it fails to do so

What is a population in a sample?

An identifiable group of things. EX.

Bandwagon

An unconscious tendency to modify one's views to make them consistent with those of other people.

Loss Aversion

Being more strongly motivated to avoid a loss than to accrue a gain.

Confirmation Bias

Belief bias. important example of a "cognitive bias'. We will naturally seek information that confirms our existing position rather than to consider contradictory evidence.

Blogs

Blogs are simply journals, the vast majority of them put up by individuals, that are left open to the public on an Internet site.

Stereotype

Broad generalization about groups

Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. Reported after Clinton and Obama debate: " James, a Clinton advisor, declared his candidate the 'winner' in the debate, saying she'd made her case more strongly"

Claim that can't properly be evaluated

Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. Comment from an acquaintance: "I saw Bigfoot with my own eyes! It was huge!"

Claim that cannot properly be evaluated

Appeal to Tradition, Common Practice, Popularity

Common practice - "Everybody does X. Therefore it's right to do X" EX.everybody breaks the speed limit. Therefore, its right to break the speed limit. Tradition-"X is a traction. Therefore it is right to think or do X" Applying to a traditional sense" Popularity:"Everybody does X, therefore its right to do X"

2 kinds of logics

Deduction - logic of proof Induction - logic of support

Deductive/Inductive: All mammals are warm-blooded creatures, and all whales are mammals. Therefore, all whales are warm-blooded creatures.

Deductive

Deductive/Inductive: I didn't get enough sleep last night; therefore I should get to bed earlier tonight.

Deductive

Deductive/Inductive: It's wrong to hurt someone's feelings, and that is exactly what you are doing when you speak to me like that.

Deductive

Deductive/Inductive: Mike must belong to the Bartenders and Beverage Union Local 165, since almost every Las Vegas bartender does.

Deductive

Deductive/Inductive: No mayten tree is deciduous, and all nondeciduous trees are evergreens. It follows that all mayten trees are evergreens.

Deductive

Deductive vs. Inductive argument

Deductive: An argument intended to prove or demonstrate, rather than merely support, a conclusion Inductive: An argument that is supposed to raise the probability of its conclusion but it is so weak it fails to do so

Ridicule/Sarcasm

Different Tone

Poisoning the Well

Dismissing someone before they said it

Credibility based on Physical Characteristics

Do they look you in the eyes while talking? Do they sweat a lot? Nervous laugh? A study notes that being taller, louder, and assertive increases your credibility.

Downplayers

Downplays his/her credentials, seems less important

Stereotype example

Dumb blonde

Emotive meanings/ rhetorical force of words example:

Example: "Government guaranteed health" "Government takeover of health care"

Deductive Reasoning Example

Example: Premises: Bill Clinton is taller than George W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter is shorter than George W. Bush. Conclusion: Therefore, Bill Clinton is taller than Jimmy Carter.

Euphemism Example:

Example: sleeping around passing away

Inductive Reasoning example

Example: After 2 P.M. the traffic slows to a crawl on the Bay Bridge. Therefore, it probably does the same thing on the Golden Gate Bridge.

Negativity Bias Example

Example: Believing a nasty rumor

Vagueness Example

Example: Butte City is a small town. bald, torture, reckless

False Dillema Example

Example: Either increase the number of troops in Iraq or the terrorists will be attacking U.S. cities.

Ad Hominem Example:

Example: I disagree with you. Well your shirt is ugly

Strong Inductive Argument Example:

Example: If Juan is a fragglemop, then Juan is a snipette. Juan is not a snipette. Therefore, Juan is not a fragglemop.

Scare Tactics Example:

Example: If you do this, you will die!

Ambiguity Example:

Example: Jessica is renting her house.

Innuendo Example:

Example: Mark's been spending a lot of time with Allison, if you know what I mean.

Ridicule/Sarcasm Example:

Example: McCain made a great speech last night. Everyone awakened feeling refreshed

Poisoning the Well Example:

Example: Senator Clinton will give a talk . It'll be baloney

Perfectionist fallacy example:

Example: Since gun laws can't prevent shootings, we should not have any gun laws.

Bandwagon Effect Example

Example: Sports

Heuristics example:

Example: We think of an event more often, thus making us more likely to assume the event is common. Airplane crashes

Loaded Question Example:

Example: When did you stop cheating on your gf?

Red Herring/Smoke Screen Example:

Example: Yes the president's strategy is working. The Dems haven't come up with anything better.

Subjective examples

Example: taste, color, music, entertainment

Objective examples

Example: time, temperature, smoking = cancer

T/F: Issues can be resolved only through scientific testing.

False

T/F: Whether a passage contains an argument depends on how long it is.

False

T/F: You can reach a conclusion without believing it is true.

False

T/F:Critical thinking consists in attacking other people's ideas.

False

T/F: All opinions are subjective.

False. As an example of an opinion that isn't subjective, we (the authors) are of the opinion there is life somewhere else in the universe. If there is life, our opinion is true. If there isn't, then it is false. We don't know whether our opinion is true or false, but we do know that it is one or the other, and we know that whether it is true or false is independent of whether we think there is life somewhere else in the universe.

Dyphemism Example:

Geezer

Heuristics

General rules we unconsciously follow in estimating probabilities.

Ambiguity

Having more than one meaning. An ambiguous claim is one that can be interpreted in more than one way and whose meaning is not made clear by the context. See also Semantic ambiguity; Syntactic ambiguity.

Hyperbole

Hype, exaggeration

Hyperbole Example:

I've told you a million times.

Perfectionist fallacy

If it can't be perfect, it should not be done at all, all or nothing

Induction fallacy vs Relevance Fallacy

Induction fallacy: Statement made but its WEAK to argue. Relevance Fallacy: Irrelevant to the argument

Deductive/Inductive: Believe in God?Yes, of course I do. The universe couldn't have arisen by chance, could it? Besides, I read the other day that more and more physicists believe in God, based on what they're finding out about the big bang and all that stuff.

Inductive

Deductive/Inductive: Biden would have made a fine president. After all, he made a fine vice president.

Inductive

Deductive/Inductive: From an office memo:"I've got a good person for your opening in Accounting. Jesse Brown is his name, and he's as sharp as they come. Jesse has a solid background in bookkeeping, and he's good with computers. He's also reliable, and he'll project the right image. He will do a fine job for you."

Inductive

Deductive/Inductive: I've never met a golden retriever with a nasty disposition. I bet there aren't any.

Inductive

Deductive/Inductive: Miss Scarlet's fingerprints were on the knife used to kill Colonel Mustard. Furthermore, he was killed in the pantry, and she was the only person who had a key to the pantry. Clearly she killed the colonel.

Inductive

Deductive/Inductive: Sherry seems right for the job to me. She speaks French, knows biology, has people skills, and makes a great impression. The only down side is, she can't start until October. That pretty much eliminates her, unfortunately.

Inductive

Deductive/Inductive: Sparky is scratching again. He must either have a skin infection or flea bites.

Inductive

Deductive/inductive: The brains of rats raised in enriched environments with a variety of toys and puzzles weigh more than the brains of rats raised in more barren environments. Therefore, the brains of humans will weigh more if humans are placed in intellectually stimulating environments.

Inductive

Deductive/inductive: We've interviewed 200 professional football players, and 60 percent of them favor expanding the season to twenty games. Therefore, 60 percent of all professional football players favor expanding the season to twenty games.

Inductive

Inductive vs Deductive Reasoning

Inductive: either relatively strong or relatively weak, which depends on the degree to which its premise affects the probability of the conclusion. The premise supports the conclusion but does not demonstrate or prove it. Deductive: either sound or unsound; whether it is the one or the other does not depend on whether anyone is persuaded by it. The premise if true, proves or demonstrates its conclusion.

What are the 3 types of ads?

Logos, Ethos, Pathos

Euphemism

Make it sound better

Dyphemism

Make it sound worse

Repetition

Making the point over and over.

Straw Man

Misrepresenting another person's position.

"There is nothing either good or bad but that thinking makes it so" expresses a doctrine known as ___

Moral Subjectivism

Objective/Subjective: On a baseball field, the center of the pitcher's mound is 59 ft. from home plate

Objective

Objective/Subjective: Pit Vipers can strike a warm-blooded animal even when it is pitch dark

Objective

Credibility of a website

On the Internet, whether by website or email, the average person has no idea where the stuff on the computer screen comes from.

Ad Hominem

Personal attack on someone

Repetition Example:

Political signs on the street

Relevance Fallacies

Premise are logically irrelevant to the conclusion fallacy that is not relevant to an argument. Irrelevant from an argument.

False Dillema

Presents something as "either/or" extreme divergent, nothing in between

Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. According to Funk and Wagnalls Hammond World Atlas, the three longest rivers in the world are the Nile, the Amazon, and the Yangtze

Prob true

Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. "On the early 1800, bears were a nuisance to settlers in upstate NY" - Smithsonian

Probably True

Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. "The yearly cancer rate for men in Scotland is 130 cases per 100,000." - "Atlas of Cancer in Scotland," World Health Organization (an agency of the United Nations)

Probably true

Relevance Fallacy vs Rhetorical Device

Relevance Fallacy: The statement is flawed making the argument invalid. Rhetorical Device: Technique to evoke emotion to audience

Asses the following as PROBABLY TRUE, PROBABLY FALSE, REQUIRING FURTHER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE JUDGEMENT, OR A CLAIM THAT CAN'T PROPERLY BE EVALUATED. Consider both the nature of the claim and the source. University student to a professor: "I'm sorry I missed the test on Thursday, My grandmother died and I had to go home"

Requiring further documentation before judgement

Loaded Question:

Rests on an assumption . A question that implies an answer

How does sample size affect error margin and confidence levels?

Sample of 1500 the error margin is low.

Scare Tactics

Scare us into accepting or doing something

Objective/Subjective: Fallon tells better jokes than Colbet

Subjective

Objective/Subjective: Green is the most pleasant color to look at

Subjective

Objective/Subjective: Nicki Minaj can fake a great English accent

Subjective

Objective/Subjective: Opera would be easier to listen to if they'd leave out the singing

Subjective

Objective/Subjective: Your teacher would be crazy not to complain if you text in class

Subjective

Subjective vs Objective

Subjective: A statement that is made true or false by the speaker or writer's thinking it is true or false. Objective: A statement that is not made true or false by the speaker or writer's thinking it is true or false.

Innuendo

Suggesting you're not saying something but you are

Proof Surrogate

Suggests evidence with out citing

What is an attribute of interest in samples?

The attribute ascribed to a thing or things in the conclusion of an inductive generalization, inductive argument from analogy, or statistical syllogism

Weak Inductive argument

The less likely it makes the conclusion, the weaker the argument

T/F: A claim is what you use to state an opinion or a belief.

True

T/F: All arguments have a conclusion.

True

T/F: All arguments have a premise.

True

T/F: All factual claims are true.

True

T/F: Beliefs, judgments, and opinions are the same thing.

True

T/F: Every issue requires an argument for a resolution

True

T/F: Relativism is the idea that if the standards of evidence or truth are different for two cultures, there is no independent way of saying which standards are the correct ones

True

T/F: Statements, claims, and assertions are the same thing.

True

T/F: The claim "Death Valley is an eyesore" expresses a subjective opinion

True

T/F: The conclusion of an argument states a position on an issue.

True

T/F: When a question has been asked, an issue has been raised.

True

T/F: It is not possible to reason correctly if you do not think critically

True 1

Availability Heuristic

Unconsciously assigning a probability to a type of event on the basis of how often one thinks of events of that type

Why is vagueness used?

Vagueness is often intentionally used to avoid giving a clear, precise answer

Critical thinking

We think critically when we rationally evaluate our own or others' thinking.

In-Group Bias

We view groups that we are part of more favorable compared to groups we are not part of. May take the form of employing stereotypes to explain the behavior of "outsiders."

Induction Fallacies

Weak arguments, arguments that are supposed to raise the probability of their conclusions but are so weak they fail

Claim

When a belief (judgement, opinion) is asserted in a declarative statement.

Questions to evaluate a claim and its source

When does a claim's content present a credibility problem? When does the source of a claim lack credibility?

Wikipedia as a source

You should be especially wary of recent articles; they are more likely to contain uncorrected errors that will eventually disappear as knowledgeable people visit the page and put right whatever mistakes are present.

Cause and Effect Fallacy

a mistaken belief that what occurs before some event is logically the cause of it

Initial Plausibility

a rough assessment of how credible a claim seems to us.

Sound deductive argument

a valid argument with all true premises

What is generalizing from a sample?

all or most of a sample **

Argument

an attempt to support or prove a contention by providing a reason for accepting it

eye witness testimony

any firsthand account given by an individual of an event they have seen. Even though eyewitness testimony can be persuasive before a judge and jury, it may be much more unreliable than we generally give it credit for being

argument vs non-argument

argument has at least one premise that supports a conclusion. It contains a factual claim and an inferential claim. arguments aim to prove some proposition as true rather than merely expressing a belief. On the other hand, non-arguments are statements or beliefs or opinions, reports, loosely associated statements, warnings, single condition statements, explanations, illustrations, etc.

Ethos

being persuaded by a speaker's personal attributes (background, reputation, etc)

The first order of business when it comes to thinking critically about an issue:

c. To determine what exactly the issue is.

Rhetorical Device

device used to produce effective speaking or writing. Technique to evoke emotion to audience.

Inductive reasoning

either relatively strong or relatively weak, which depends on the degree to which its premise affects the probability of the conclusion. The premise supports the conclusion but does not demonstrate or prove it.

Deductive reasoning

either sound or unsound; whether it is the one or the other does not depend on whether anyone is persuaded by it. The premise if true, proves or demonstrates its conclusion.

What are random samples, error margins, and confidence levels?

error margin - plus or minus a certain percentage

Red Herring/Smoke Screen

irrelevancy brought to "support" a claim

Emotive meanings/ rhetorical force of words:

positive or negative associations of a word

Straw Man Example

someone who says, "taxes should be lower, but we need more money to fund schools"

Pathos

speaker can persuade us by connecting with us on a personal level by appealing emotions

Logos

speaker may persuade us by using info and arguments

What is an Argument from Analogy?

take 2 things and say they are similar but sometimes aren't used correctly. EX. comparing smoking tobacco vs vaping

Background information

that immense body of justified beliefs that consists of facts we learn from our own direct observations and facts we learn from others.

Strong Inductive Argument

the more likely the premise of an inductive argument makes the conclusion, the stronger the argument

Webcheckers example:

truthorfiction.com snopes.com

Webcheckers

website checking tool for webmasters

Gambler's Fallacy

when we don't realize independent events are independent. "Hot Streak" Winning 5 hands and expecting