Risk management

_____ looks at uncertainty in a planned event, like there being more errors than expected or production is below target.

Variability risk

Monte Carlo analysis is a tool and technique of _____.

quantitative risk analysis

Risk categories can be illustrated through a _____.

risk breakdown structure (RBS)

Plan risk management primary output

risk management plan

what is the primary tool for perform qualitative risk analysis?

risk probability and impact assessment/matrix Data representation (hierarchical charts)

Identify risks process key outputs

risk register, risk report

Enhance (opprotunity)

strategy is used to increase the probability and/or impact of an opportunity. Early enhancement action is often more effective than trying to improve the benefit after the opportunity has occurred.

Exploit (opprotunity)

strategy may be selected for high-priority opportunities where the organization wants to ensure that the opportunity is realized. This strategy seeks to capture the benefit associated with a particular opportunity by ensuring that it definitely happens, increasing the probability of occurrence to 100%.

Tracking the number of defects found at the end of an assembly line is an example of _____.

technical performance analysis

Decision tree analysis

A diagramming and calculation technique for evaluating the implications of a chain of multiple options in the presence of uncertainty.

Assumption log

A document that clearly identifies and tracks assumptions that are made in the project. All assumptions need to be tested for their validity and the outcome of the test should be recorded.

Influence Diagram

A graphical representation of situations showing causal influences, time ordering of events, and other relationships among variables and outcomes.

probability and impact matrix

A grid for mapping the probability of each risk occurrence and its impact on project objectives if that risk occurs.

What is the key outcome of the Plan Risk Responses process?

A plan for how to handle each risk

Project Resilience

A term that describes an unknowable-unknowns risk; risk that can only be recognized after they have occurred

Project risks are identified during which process?

Identify Risks and Monitor Risks

Prompt list is a tool used for identifying risk what are the three frameworks that can be used ?

PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental) TECOP (technical, environmental, commercial, operational, political) VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity)

Risk Management Plan is made up of

Risk strategy Methodology Roles and responsibilities Funding Timing Risk categories

Avoid (threat)

Risk avoidance is when the project team acts to eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact. It may be appropriate for high-priority threats with a high probability of occurrence and a large negative impact.

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty have the most potential impact on project outcomes.

Integrated risk management

The process of considering the social, economic and political factors involved in risk analysis; determining the acceptability of damage/disruption; deciding on the actions to be taken to minimise damage/disruption.

Plan risk management

The process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project.

Plan risk response

The process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives.

Plan procurement management

The process of documenting project procurement decisions, specifying the approach, and identifying potential sellers.

Identify risk process

The process of identifying individual project risks as well as sources of overall project risk, and documenting their characteristics.

Implement Risk Responses

The process of implementing agreed-upon risk response plans.

control procurement

The process of managing procurement relationships, monitoring contract performance, making changes and corrections as appropriate, and closing out contracts.

Monitor Risks

The process of monitoring the implementation of agreed-upon risk response plans, tracking identified risks, identifying and analyzing new risks, and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project.

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

The process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives.

conduct procurement management

The process of obtaining seller responses, selecting a seller, and awarding a contract.

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

The process of prioritizing individual project risks for further analysis or action by assessing their probability of occurrence and impact as well as other characteristics.

Risk Probability and Impact Assessment

(Tool/Technique) Process that helps you assign a probability to the likelihood of a risk occurring, and then figure out the actual cost (or impact) if it does happen. You can use these values to figure out which of your risks need a pretty solid mitigation plan, and which can be monitored as the project goes on.

monitor risks process for risk management tools

Data analysis (technical performance analysis, reserve analysis) Audits

what is the risk management plan

Defines what level of risk will be considered tolerable for the project How risk will be managed who will be responsible for risk activities the amounts of time and resource that will be allotted to risk activities how risk findings will be communicated

escalate (threat)

Escalation is appropriate when the project team or the project sponsor agrees that a threat is outside the scope of the project or that the proposed response would exceed the project manager's authority.

In a decision trees you can compute quantitative data by

Expected monetary value (EMV) for the event EMV=(initial cost-risk cost) x probability

Quantitative risk analysis should always be carried out before qualitative risk analysis. (T/F)

F

Risk management process groups and processes

I - None P - Plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative risk analysis, perform quantitative risk analysis, plan risk responses Ex - implement risk response M&C - Monitor risk C- None

The project information management system is used as a tool in which of the following processes?

Implement Risk Responses

Which of these tools is the best to use as part of a quantitative risk analysis to identify the potential impact of risks on accomplishing the project objectives?

Monte Carlo analysis

_____ deals with how well a project can bounce back from unknown risks.

Project resilience

what are the tools for perform quantitative analysis process for risk management

Representation of uncertainty - beta and triangular distribution Data analysis - simulation - monte carlo - sensitivity analysis - tornado diagram - decision tree - influence diagram - depicts actors, influences, and possible outcomes

The key benefit of the Plan _____ Management process is that it describes how the project team will identify, evaluate, rank, and manage each risk.

Risk

what are some types of data analysis for risk management?

Root cause analysis "ishikawa" Assumptions and constraint analysis SWOT analysis

Risks can only affect a project negatively. (T/F)

T

Talking to stakeholders helps provide a risk threshold for the project so you know who is risk averse or who is willing to take risks. (T/F)

T

The Plan Risk Responses process is for developing options and actions to reduce or enhance the project's risks. (T/F)

T

The intent of risk management is to increase the chance of positive risks and reduce the impact of negative risks. (T/F)

T

When project teams spend a lot of time developing a plan, but then they don't execute it, this adds more risk to the project. (T/F)

T

Risk Data Quality Assessment

Technique to evaluate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management.

Escalate (Opportunity)

This risk response strategy is appropriate when the project team or the project sponsor agrees that an opportunity is outside the scope of the project or that the proposed response would exceed the project manager's authority.

During the Identify Risks process, a SWOT analysis can be very useful. The S stands for Strengths. What does the T stand for?

Threats

Transfer (Threat)

Transfer involves shifting ownership of a threat to a third party to manage the risk and to bear the impact if the threat occurs.

variability risk

Uncertainty exists about some key characteristics of a planned event or activity or decision. Examples of variability risks include: productivity may be above or below target, the number of errors found during testing may be higher or lower than expected, or unseasonal weather conditions may occur during the construction phase.

ambiguity risk

Uncertainty exists about what might happen in the future. Areas of the project where imperfect knowledge might affect the project's ability to achieve its objectives include: elements of the requirement or technical solution, future developments in regulatory frameworks, or inherent systemic complexity in the project.

Accept (Threat)

acknowledges the existence of a threat, but no proactive action is taken. This strategy may be appropriate for low-priority threats, and it may also be adopted where it is not possible or cost-effective to address a threat in any other way.

Mitigate (threat)

action is taken to reduce the probability of occurrence and/or impact of a threat.

what is the main input for the identify risk process

agreements "contracts"

what is the "why" technique

asking why 5 times to uncover root causes. By 5th time you should be at root cause

what does quantitative risk analysis do

assign a projected value to quantify the risks that have been ranked by perform qualitative risk analysis

Implement risk responses process primary output

change request

what is the purpose of the probability impact matrix?

evaluate likelihood of occurring evaluate potential impact

what is the perform qualitative risk analysis important

helps rank and prioritize the risks so that you can put the right emphasis on the right risks

controllability

how easily a risk event can be changed

detectability

how easily a risk event can be noticed or recognized

manageability

how easily a risks impact can be managed

strategic impact

how likely the risk event is to impact the organizations strategic goals

Dormancy

how much time will likely pass after the risk has occurred by before it is detected

proximity

how much time you have before the risk impacts project goals (lower is better)

Urgency

how much time you have to respond to a risk event

When performing qualitative risk analysis, the two factors you need to evaluate are probability and _____.

impact

Share (opprotuinity)

involves transferring ownership of an opportunity to a third party so that it shares some of the benefit if the opportunity occurs.

propinquity

is the measure of how important the projects stakeholders perceive this risk to be

How are ambiguity risk managed

managed by defining those areas where there is a deficit of knowledge or understanding, then filling the gap by obtaining expert external input or benchmarking against best practices. Ambiguity is also addressed through incremental development, prototyping, or simulation.

Accept (opportunity)

opportunity acknowledges its existence but no proactive action is taken. This strategy may be appropriate for low-priority opportunities, and it may also be adopted where it is not possible or cost-effective to address an opportunity in any other way.

During the Plan Risk Management process, the project manager is primarily responsible for being _____ about managing risks.

proactive

A(n) _____ shows how probable a risk is to happen, and what the impact to the project would be if it does.

probability and impact matrix

inputs to plan risk management

project charter stakeholder register Project management plan EEF OPAS

Risks are regarded as _____ in a project.

uncertainties

connectivity

understanding how risk are connected

what is the sensitivity analysis?

used for data analysis tool to depict sensitivity to risk is a tornado diagram

how are variability risk managed

using Monte Carlo analysis, with the range of variation reflected in probability distributions, followed by actions to reduce the spread of possible outcomes.