RMI Module 11

Which risks have the most interconnections

-large scale involuntary migration -failure of climate change mitigation and adaption -profound social instability

-deflation in a major economy -energy price shocks -asset bubbles

2017 economic risks

-Western Democracy in Crisis -Fraying Rule of Law and Declining Civic Freedoms -The Future of Social Protection Systems

3 Specific Risk Foci

1.) Rapid economic and technological change 2.) Deepening social and cultural polarization 3.) Post-truth political debate

3 Trends Undermining Democracy

1.) Generate more inclusive growth 2.) Maintaining continuity in government while accelerating change 3.) Reconciling identity nationalism and multiculturalism

3 strategies to improve democracy

-economic -environmental -geopolitical -societal -technological

30 Global Risks (see Figure 1 or Figure 3 or appendix A) divided into 5 categories

-Slow growth, high debt, demographics -Corruption, short termism -Multi-polar world order -Fourth industrial revolution (4IR) -Emotional decision making

5 "Gravity Centers" shaping global risks

profound social instability

According to figure 4, which risk identified in the Global Risks Report has the most interconnections:

-collective commitments and investments -positive vision -political will to make trade-offs and commit resources

According to the 2017 Global Risks Report, international security requires

I, II, & III

Artificial intellegence (AI) has great potential to aid in human decision-making, but poses several risks. Which of the following are risks posed by AI? I Design Vunerability II. Unforeseen occurrences III. Mismanagement

post-truth

Circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief is the definition of:

I

Global Trends are characterized by: I. long-term pattern that alters the relationship among risks II. negative impact for several countries over a 10 year time frame III. "hysteresis", or systems being unable to recover equilibrium after a shock

survey of risk experts

How does the Global Risks Report determine which risks to include in the report?

global risk

Occurrence that causes significant negative impact for several countries and industries overa a time frame up to 10 years is the definition of:

-unemployment -aging -disability

Social Protection Systems help individuals manage risks of:

I. Economic conditions (slow growth, high debt) II. the 4th industrial revolution

Some "Gravity Centers" in shaping global risks include:

5

The 2017 Global Risks Report divides the risks identified into _____ categories.

resilience

The Global Risks Report should help decision makers to identify ways to mitigate, adapt, and strengthen _________ to manage global risks.

I. risk-trends interconnections II. quantitative (likelihood and impact) III. systemic (interdependencies)

The risks identified in the Global Risks Report are analyzed along which parameters:

-Weather events -Major natural disasters -Large-scale involuntary migration -Terrorist attacks

What risks appear on "Top 10" List for both likelihood & impact (figure 3)

-Rising income and wealth disparity -Changing climate -Increasing polarization of societies -Rising cyber dependency -Ageing population

What trends are driving the global risk landscape

I. Western Democracy in Crisis II. Declining Civic Freedoms III. The future of social protection systems

Which of the following are risk foci in the 2017 Global Risks Report:

fiscal crises

Which of the following is an example of economic risks identified in the Global Risks Report:

declining civic freedoms

Which of the following were discussed as part of the social and political challenges.

II

Which risks are on the "Top 10" list for both likelihood and impact: I. Urbanization II. Weather Events III. Cyber warfare

-Unemployment/underemployment and profound social instability -Large-scale involuntary migration and state collapse/crisis -Failure of climate change mitigation/adaption and water crises -Failure of national governance and profound social instability -Interstate conflict with regional consequences and large-scale involuntary migration

Which risks have the most "important" interconnections

-Lots of risks that are global in nature -They appear to be interconnected -Mitigation is good, but may not be enough to overcome all the risks -Politics plays an important role -How far are we from Terminator?

chapter conclusions

-a declining sense of trust and mutual good faith -technological innovation -unilateral or transactional approaches to foreign policy

factors that exacerbates geopolitical risk

global trend

long term pattern that is currently taking place and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them

global risk

occurrence that causes significant negative impact for several countries or industries over a time frame of up to 10 years.