Soc Exam 1

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Thomas Malthus

"The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man"

Old-age dependency ratio

# old age dependents/ #supporters (people aged 15-64)

Fertility rate:

#births in period/ #women aged 15-49 mid period

What shape did we observe the US population pyramid to take during the years that the Baby Boom cohort entered and lived out their reproductive ages?

A large base on the population pyramid due to the large cohort at the reproductive ages having their own children

Why are lower dependency ratios desirable?

A large dependency ratio can have negative impacts on labor productivity, capital formation, and savings rates

What is the demographic explanation for why mobility rates in the US are lower today than they were in the 1960s?

A larger share of Americans are in older age groups that are less likely to move

Suppose you are working in the US Census Bureau; you are worried that certain populations aren't being counted accurately at a systemic level. You decide to put in new policies and practices to help limit this effect. What are you trying to prevent?

Differential undercount

What are health reversals?

Factors that prevent mortality levels from decreasing or lead to increased mortality at the population level

What describes the "ready" component of Ansley Coale's three prerequisites for fertility decline?

Fertility choice must be in the calculus of conscious thought

What does the narrowing above the base of a population pyramid usually indicate?

High child mortality

IPAT equation

Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology

generational equity

In a given time period, the enactment of age-based policies affects specific birth cohorts age-based policies implicitly redistribute public goods from one cohort to a different cohort if a policy changes, redistribution may penalize specific cohorts

what is the compression of morbidity hypothesis?

Increased life expectancy will be accompanied by a shortening of the length of time spent in poor health

Median age

Median number of age for population of the country Low median age- high fertility high median age- low fertility high income- high median age low income- low median age

What are the important components of a population?

Size, composition, distribution, dynamics

Calculating Period Life Expectancy (eo)

The avg number of years a baby born today would live if today's birth cohort experienced today's age specific and sex-specific mortality rates as they move through life

sociological age

The role you play in society due to your age, or perceived age.

What was the primary concern about adding a citizen ship question to the 2020 U.S> Census

There were concerns that immigrant families--with and without-- would avoid the Census or respond inaccurately

Ansley Cole (1973)

Three pre-requisites of fertility decline" 1. fertility must be within the calculus of conscious choice (ready) 2. reduced fertility must be advantageous (willing) 3. Effective techniques must be available (able)

T or F? Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic includes both deaths attributable to COVID-19 and deaths from other causes

True

Bucharest 1974

US and allies: rapid population increase is a serious impediment to development supporting family planning programs is the most promising way to encourage economic development

Mexico City 1984

US reverses position and considers population increase a neutral phenomenon in development. Major problem was seen as governmental control of economics and solution proposed was economic reforms that put a society on road towards growth, and as an after effect, slow population growth as well

Unmet need for contraception

When the demand for contraception outweighs the prevalence or obtainability of it. (Supply + Availability) - Demand

When a nation's age structure enters a period with a high-old age dependency ratio, that nation may experience an economic disadvantage known as____?

a demographic time-bomb

compression of mortality

a greater proportion of deaths occur during a narrow time period at upper limit of human life span

Demographic dividend

a period when the labor force temporarily grows more rapidly than the population who depends on it

demographic time bomb

a predicted shortage of school-leavers and consequently of available workers, caused by an earlier drop in the birth rate, resulting in an older workforce

compression of morbidity

a shortening of the time a person spends ill or infirm, accomplished by postponing illness

Baby boom echo

baby boomer children, lots of baby boomer grandchildren bc lots of baby boomers

low fertility

below replacement fertility (TFR < 2.1)

Why is technology beneficial for production?

technology is used to produce more goods, b ut it also makes the production and disposal of goods more efficient

Unmet need for contraception occurs when...?

the demand is higher than the use

Demographic critique

A critique of Malthus which basically states that demographic trends are not linear and Malthus was writing his ideas in a time of uniquely high fertility in terms of his data.

biological age

A person's age in terms of biological health.

What contributed to the rising mid-life mortality documented by Case and Deaton?

Chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis, suicide, drug overdose

What are person-years of exposure

Numerator- demographic event that we are measuring Denominator- portion of the time period they spend in the population before the event Number of incident cases/amount of person-time at risk

Growth balance equation

PopT2=Popt1 + B-D + I-O

The Helm's amendment to the constitution prevents the US federal dollars to be spent on what

Providing abortions or abortion-related services

why is it hard to disentangle population growth and environmental impact?

Role of "affluence" influences both pop growth and environmental impact

Climate-driven migration

displacement from natural disasters, responses to livelihood loss

T or F? The completeness of death reporting is lowest in South America

false

State of natural fertility

fertility in the absence of intentional control

Population level fertility data typically come from what data source in low-income countries that do not have vital statistics infrastructure

fertility surveys

Assumptions about what components of population change shape projections of future population size?

fertility, mortality, and migration

Cohort-component projection

fertility, mortality, net migration are projected separately for each birth cohort

Postponement transition of fertility

first birth postponed to later ages, delayed fertility=fertility foregone, causes a temporary dip in period TFR ("tempo effect")

Residential mobility rate

frequency of people which change residences

subjective age

how old you feel

Pace

how soon do we need to address this issue? which spaces are moving toward demographic time-bombs more quickly?

aging effect

increased median chronological age of a population

What distinguishes the age structure of West Virginia?

natural decrease

Cairo 1994

population conference; policy shifts to empowering women

Centenarian

someone lived to at least 100

Differential undercount

sub populations are more likely to be undercounted than others

Three dynamics leading to deaths of despair

1. Changing labor markets and stratification processes 2. Increased pain prevalence and functional limitations 3. Increased availability of opioids

lowest fertility rate

1.3-1.5, countries rarely remain at this level for an extended period

What are official uses of Census data?

Allocation of resources back to geographic areas, and representation to decision-making bodies, NOT for determination of tax rates

How does fertility get so low?

Changing values, Uncertainty (high divorce rates, poor economic prospects, etc.), gender equity (domestic vs labor market equity), opportunity cost of women's time (inc education attainment, inc labor force participation)

According to the article by Eisenstein, why do scholars think the maximum human lifespan might increase in the future?

New medical technologies to control senescence and treat chronic diseases

Helms Amendment

No foreign assistance funds may be used to pay for the performance of abortion as a method of family planning or to motivate or coerce any person to practice abortions

Crude birth rate (CBR)

Number of births in a given period divided by the population exposed to risk of death in that period

Crude death rate (CDR)

Number of deaths in a given period divided by the population exposed to risk of death in that period

Two fundamentals (Malthus)

Passion between sexes is necessary food is necessary

How do we estimate future populations?

Use info about past population patterns (fertility, mortality, migration (sometimes) rates) Apply this information to current population numbers Cohort-Component projection (break pop down into age cohorts, apply age-specific rates to each age group, stepwise projection, changing age-cohort numbers every 5-year step)

chronological age

actual age

Socioeconomic inequality

are there disparate effects for different groups in the population? How does the solution influence current income disparities?

Demand theories of fertility decline

as the "cost" of children increases, demand for contraception will increase

Why does affluence matter?

as the consumption of individuals increases, the total environmental impact increases as well

Population level life expectancy

average length of life in a population

How do we know fertility rates if there isn't good registration data?

census data, surveys

How do we know about mortality without death registrations

census data, surveys and indirect estimation

Expansion of morbidity

chronological age is increasing faster than biological age is decreasing (or biological age is increasing)

What is a population?

collection of people alive at a specified point in time who meet certain criteria

What is excess mortality?

compare expected to observed number of deaths regardless of cause

What is one of the most frequently given reasons by women in lower income countries for why they do not use contraception?

concerns about side effects

How do we know what we know about mortality patterns?

death certificate data (cause of death -> direct morality estimates) indirect mortality (difficult to observe- estimated indirectly from excess mortality)

Population-driven threats to the environment

deforestation, more pollution=more global warming=more flooding

Population policies

domestic and international policies aimed at addressing population level "levers" that influence population level fertility

What is the most likely explanation for why the US fertility rate declined over the past decade?

economic conditions

Social inequality as a population health reversal

educational inequality and income inequality are driving poor health and higher mortality in lower educated and lower income sub-populations in the US

family planning programs

efforts by governments, NGOs, and others to provide education about family size, reproduction, and access to contraceptive technologies

P2= P1 + B-D +I-O + X, what is X?

error of closure

Healthy life expectancy-how does this differ from standard life expectancy?

expected years of life in good health (without morbidity)

What did Malthus predict?

food production cannot keep up with population growth, pop growth will inevitably produce poverty, the only preventative measure is "moral restraint"

cohort

group of people with a shared characteristic

Neo-Malthusians

group who built on Malthus' theory and suggested that people wouldn't just starve for lack of food, but would have wars about food and other scarce resources

Diffusion theories of fertility decline

ideas about the value of children and the acceptability of smaller families spread through social networks, education, and the media

Deaths of despair

individual level deaths during mid-life due to preventable, specific causes

Human lifespan

length of an individual life

Where is the population age group 60 years and older growing the fastest?

less developed countries (excluding LDCs)

Non-economic costs of population aging

less innovation, more risk-aversion weaker security relative to younger nations

If the median biological age of the population is getter younger, this creates a ____ in the population

longevity effect

Time lag

momentum keeps populations growing for many years after fertility declines (pop policy needs to act now to achieve desired growth in 60-70 years)

Technology Critique

more people= more brainpower= solving resource issue

Positive check

natural processes that keep population in check

Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)

number of births per year to woman of a specific age range, divided by the total number of women in that specific age range

Total Sterility Rate (TRF)

number of children that would be born to a woman if she lives to the end of her childbearing years and is subject to today's ASFRs

age inflation

older people are going to have a better biological age (65 is new 75)

Four considerations about population aging solutions

pace, socioeconomic inequality, geography, generational equity

Period effects

people alive in a specific moment (9/11, COVID)

longevity effect

people are healthier, longer

Coercive family planning policies

policy, practices, or limitations applied to a population by a government so that people do not have full agency or control over their fertility choices (pro-natalist, anti-natalist)

Inequality critique

poverty and hunger cause environmental degradation, not population growth economic inequality is product of histories of development food shortages is problem of access and overconsumption

Population growth and poverty

poverty constrains adaptation, pressure on natural resources

Rights-based family planning policies

programs that put primacy and importance on human rights and people's ability to make informed choices about how many children they want, and to achieve those fertility goals Not only allow people to limit their fertility, but empower people to have as many children as they desire

Why does age structure matter?

record of past cohort experiences, age pattern of demographic risk, potential for population growth, age dependency ratios

What are some issues with surveys that make estimating fertility challenging?

sampling error, retrospective (can't remember birth weight or date), not always recent

What are environmental economics?

scarce resources influence prices, influence demand, concern for resource availability drives knowledge production

Population momentum

similar to baby boom echo, large birth cohort

Super-centenarian

some lived past 110

Contraceptive technologies

techniques, technologies, methods to prevent the conception of a fetus

demographic transition

the gradual change between the ratio of the birth and death rate in an area

How does population momentum work?

the rate of global population growth peaked in early 60s, but the largest number of people was added to the world population in there late 80s- a lower rate applied to a larger base population

Replacement level fertility

the total fertility rate required to offset the average number of deaths in a population in order to maintain the current population size (2.1)

T or F? Between 1/5 and 1/3 of married women with unmet need in lower income countries say that they aren't using contraception because they have sex infrequently

true

T or F? If the economy improves, young people who delay having children in the US today are likely to make up many of these births later in their lives

true

T or F?: Recent increases in life expectancy have depended on increased survival among the older adult population

true

In many high income countries with low fertility, what is the norm for the number of children that couples want to have?

two

What are some issues with census data that make estimating fertility challenging?

underreporting- forget very young babies on census, not trusting government

Economic costs of population aging

unfunded support systems for the elderly, or increased funding to aged means less funding elsewhere. Economic burden in young workers, slowing economic growth

What are examples of health reversals identified by Horiuchi?

unhealthy life styles in wealthy societies, social alienation, re-emergence of infectious diseases

What is identified by Malthus as a positive check that prevents population growth?

war over scarce resources

Preventative check

ways that Malthus thought overpopulation can be prevented, delayed marriage, abstinence, restricting marriage of poor

What is an undercount?

when certain sub-populations are more likely to be left our of the Census count than other groups

What is a population health reversal?

when the health of a population declines, especially when life expectancy begins to decline

geography

where are older people living? where should policy efforts focus their energy?

Potential solutions to population aging

work in later life, reduce pensions, labor and finance policy, increase immigration, increase fertility


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