Soc Exam 1
Thomas Malthus
"The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man"
Old-age dependency ratio
# old age dependents/ #supporters (people aged 15-64)
Fertility rate:
#births in period/ #women aged 15-49 mid period
What shape did we observe the US population pyramid to take during the years that the Baby Boom cohort entered and lived out their reproductive ages?
A large base on the population pyramid due to the large cohort at the reproductive ages having their own children
Why are lower dependency ratios desirable?
A large dependency ratio can have negative impacts on labor productivity, capital formation, and savings rates
What is the demographic explanation for why mobility rates in the US are lower today than they were in the 1960s?
A larger share of Americans are in older age groups that are less likely to move
Suppose you are working in the US Census Bureau; you are worried that certain populations aren't being counted accurately at a systemic level. You decide to put in new policies and practices to help limit this effect. What are you trying to prevent?
Differential undercount
What are health reversals?
Factors that prevent mortality levels from decreasing or lead to increased mortality at the population level
What describes the "ready" component of Ansley Coale's three prerequisites for fertility decline?
Fertility choice must be in the calculus of conscious thought
What does the narrowing above the base of a population pyramid usually indicate?
High child mortality
IPAT equation
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
generational equity
In a given time period, the enactment of age-based policies affects specific birth cohorts age-based policies implicitly redistribute public goods from one cohort to a different cohort if a policy changes, redistribution may penalize specific cohorts
what is the compression of morbidity hypothesis?
Increased life expectancy will be accompanied by a shortening of the length of time spent in poor health
Median age
Median number of age for population of the country Low median age- high fertility high median age- low fertility high income- high median age low income- low median age
What are the important components of a population?
Size, composition, distribution, dynamics
Calculating Period Life Expectancy (eo)
The avg number of years a baby born today would live if today's birth cohort experienced today's age specific and sex-specific mortality rates as they move through life
sociological age
The role you play in society due to your age, or perceived age.
What was the primary concern about adding a citizen ship question to the 2020 U.S> Census
There were concerns that immigrant families--with and without-- would avoid the Census or respond inaccurately
Ansley Cole (1973)
Three pre-requisites of fertility decline" 1. fertility must be within the calculus of conscious choice (ready) 2. reduced fertility must be advantageous (willing) 3. Effective techniques must be available (able)
T or F? Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic includes both deaths attributable to COVID-19 and deaths from other causes
True
Bucharest 1974
US and allies: rapid population increase is a serious impediment to development supporting family planning programs is the most promising way to encourage economic development
Mexico City 1984
US reverses position and considers population increase a neutral phenomenon in development. Major problem was seen as governmental control of economics and solution proposed was economic reforms that put a society on road towards growth, and as an after effect, slow population growth as well
Unmet need for contraception
When the demand for contraception outweighs the prevalence or obtainability of it. (Supply + Availability) - Demand
When a nation's age structure enters a period with a high-old age dependency ratio, that nation may experience an economic disadvantage known as____?
a demographic time-bomb
compression of mortality
a greater proportion of deaths occur during a narrow time period at upper limit of human life span
Demographic dividend
a period when the labor force temporarily grows more rapidly than the population who depends on it
demographic time bomb
a predicted shortage of school-leavers and consequently of available workers, caused by an earlier drop in the birth rate, resulting in an older workforce
compression of morbidity
a shortening of the time a person spends ill or infirm, accomplished by postponing illness
Baby boom echo
baby boomer children, lots of baby boomer grandchildren bc lots of baby boomers
low fertility
below replacement fertility (TFR < 2.1)
Why is technology beneficial for production?
technology is used to produce more goods, b ut it also makes the production and disposal of goods more efficient
Unmet need for contraception occurs when...?
the demand is higher than the use
Demographic critique
A critique of Malthus which basically states that demographic trends are not linear and Malthus was writing his ideas in a time of uniquely high fertility in terms of his data.
biological age
A person's age in terms of biological health.
What contributed to the rising mid-life mortality documented by Case and Deaton?
Chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis, suicide, drug overdose
What are person-years of exposure
Numerator- demographic event that we are measuring Denominator- portion of the time period they spend in the population before the event Number of incident cases/amount of person-time at risk
Growth balance equation
PopT2=Popt1 + B-D + I-O
The Helm's amendment to the constitution prevents the US federal dollars to be spent on what
Providing abortions or abortion-related services
why is it hard to disentangle population growth and environmental impact?
Role of "affluence" influences both pop growth and environmental impact
Climate-driven migration
displacement from natural disasters, responses to livelihood loss
T or F? The completeness of death reporting is lowest in South America
false
State of natural fertility
fertility in the absence of intentional control
Population level fertility data typically come from what data source in low-income countries that do not have vital statistics infrastructure
fertility surveys
Assumptions about what components of population change shape projections of future population size?
fertility, mortality, and migration
Cohort-component projection
fertility, mortality, net migration are projected separately for each birth cohort
Postponement transition of fertility
first birth postponed to later ages, delayed fertility=fertility foregone, causes a temporary dip in period TFR ("tempo effect")
Residential mobility rate
frequency of people which change residences
subjective age
how old you feel
Pace
how soon do we need to address this issue? which spaces are moving toward demographic time-bombs more quickly?
aging effect
increased median chronological age of a population
What distinguishes the age structure of West Virginia?
natural decrease
Cairo 1994
population conference; policy shifts to empowering women
Centenarian
someone lived to at least 100
Differential undercount
sub populations are more likely to be undercounted than others
Three dynamics leading to deaths of despair
1. Changing labor markets and stratification processes 2. Increased pain prevalence and functional limitations 3. Increased availability of opioids
lowest fertility rate
1.3-1.5, countries rarely remain at this level for an extended period
What are official uses of Census data?
Allocation of resources back to geographic areas, and representation to decision-making bodies, NOT for determination of tax rates
How does fertility get so low?
Changing values, Uncertainty (high divorce rates, poor economic prospects, etc.), gender equity (domestic vs labor market equity), opportunity cost of women's time (inc education attainment, inc labor force participation)
According to the article by Eisenstein, why do scholars think the maximum human lifespan might increase in the future?
New medical technologies to control senescence and treat chronic diseases
Helms Amendment
No foreign assistance funds may be used to pay for the performance of abortion as a method of family planning or to motivate or coerce any person to practice abortions
Crude birth rate (CBR)
Number of births in a given period divided by the population exposed to risk of death in that period
Crude death rate (CDR)
Number of deaths in a given period divided by the population exposed to risk of death in that period
Two fundamentals (Malthus)
Passion between sexes is necessary food is necessary
How do we estimate future populations?
Use info about past population patterns (fertility, mortality, migration (sometimes) rates) Apply this information to current population numbers Cohort-Component projection (break pop down into age cohorts, apply age-specific rates to each age group, stepwise projection, changing age-cohort numbers every 5-year step)
chronological age
actual age
Socioeconomic inequality
are there disparate effects for different groups in the population? How does the solution influence current income disparities?
Demand theories of fertility decline
as the "cost" of children increases, demand for contraception will increase
Why does affluence matter?
as the consumption of individuals increases, the total environmental impact increases as well
Population level life expectancy
average length of life in a population
How do we know fertility rates if there isn't good registration data?
census data, surveys
How do we know about mortality without death registrations
census data, surveys and indirect estimation
Expansion of morbidity
chronological age is increasing faster than biological age is decreasing (or biological age is increasing)
What is a population?
collection of people alive at a specified point in time who meet certain criteria
What is excess mortality?
compare expected to observed number of deaths regardless of cause
What is one of the most frequently given reasons by women in lower income countries for why they do not use contraception?
concerns about side effects
How do we know what we know about mortality patterns?
death certificate data (cause of death -> direct morality estimates) indirect mortality (difficult to observe- estimated indirectly from excess mortality)
Population-driven threats to the environment
deforestation, more pollution=more global warming=more flooding
Population policies
domestic and international policies aimed at addressing population level "levers" that influence population level fertility
What is the most likely explanation for why the US fertility rate declined over the past decade?
economic conditions
Social inequality as a population health reversal
educational inequality and income inequality are driving poor health and higher mortality in lower educated and lower income sub-populations in the US
family planning programs
efforts by governments, NGOs, and others to provide education about family size, reproduction, and access to contraceptive technologies
P2= P1 + B-D +I-O + X, what is X?
error of closure
Healthy life expectancy-how does this differ from standard life expectancy?
expected years of life in good health (without morbidity)
What did Malthus predict?
food production cannot keep up with population growth, pop growth will inevitably produce poverty, the only preventative measure is "moral restraint"
cohort
group of people with a shared characteristic
Neo-Malthusians
group who built on Malthus' theory and suggested that people wouldn't just starve for lack of food, but would have wars about food and other scarce resources
Diffusion theories of fertility decline
ideas about the value of children and the acceptability of smaller families spread through social networks, education, and the media
Deaths of despair
individual level deaths during mid-life due to preventable, specific causes
Human lifespan
length of an individual life
Where is the population age group 60 years and older growing the fastest?
less developed countries (excluding LDCs)
Non-economic costs of population aging
less innovation, more risk-aversion weaker security relative to younger nations
If the median biological age of the population is getter younger, this creates a ____ in the population
longevity effect
Time lag
momentum keeps populations growing for many years after fertility declines (pop policy needs to act now to achieve desired growth in 60-70 years)
Technology Critique
more people= more brainpower= solving resource issue
Positive check
natural processes that keep population in check
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
number of births per year to woman of a specific age range, divided by the total number of women in that specific age range
Total Sterility Rate (TRF)
number of children that would be born to a woman if she lives to the end of her childbearing years and is subject to today's ASFRs
age inflation
older people are going to have a better biological age (65 is new 75)
Four considerations about population aging solutions
pace, socioeconomic inequality, geography, generational equity
Period effects
people alive in a specific moment (9/11, COVID)
longevity effect
people are healthier, longer
Coercive family planning policies
policy, practices, or limitations applied to a population by a government so that people do not have full agency or control over their fertility choices (pro-natalist, anti-natalist)
Inequality critique
poverty and hunger cause environmental degradation, not population growth economic inequality is product of histories of development food shortages is problem of access and overconsumption
Population growth and poverty
poverty constrains adaptation, pressure on natural resources
Rights-based family planning policies
programs that put primacy and importance on human rights and people's ability to make informed choices about how many children they want, and to achieve those fertility goals Not only allow people to limit their fertility, but empower people to have as many children as they desire
Why does age structure matter?
record of past cohort experiences, age pattern of demographic risk, potential for population growth, age dependency ratios
What are some issues with surveys that make estimating fertility challenging?
sampling error, retrospective (can't remember birth weight or date), not always recent
What are environmental economics?
scarce resources influence prices, influence demand, concern for resource availability drives knowledge production
Population momentum
similar to baby boom echo, large birth cohort
Super-centenarian
some lived past 110
Contraceptive technologies
techniques, technologies, methods to prevent the conception of a fetus
demographic transition
the gradual change between the ratio of the birth and death rate in an area
How does population momentum work?
the rate of global population growth peaked in early 60s, but the largest number of people was added to the world population in there late 80s- a lower rate applied to a larger base population
Replacement level fertility
the total fertility rate required to offset the average number of deaths in a population in order to maintain the current population size (2.1)
T or F? Between 1/5 and 1/3 of married women with unmet need in lower income countries say that they aren't using contraception because they have sex infrequently
true
T or F? If the economy improves, young people who delay having children in the US today are likely to make up many of these births later in their lives
true
T or F?: Recent increases in life expectancy have depended on increased survival among the older adult population
true
In many high income countries with low fertility, what is the norm for the number of children that couples want to have?
two
What are some issues with census data that make estimating fertility challenging?
underreporting- forget very young babies on census, not trusting government
Economic costs of population aging
unfunded support systems for the elderly, or increased funding to aged means less funding elsewhere. Economic burden in young workers, slowing economic growth
What are examples of health reversals identified by Horiuchi?
unhealthy life styles in wealthy societies, social alienation, re-emergence of infectious diseases
What is identified by Malthus as a positive check that prevents population growth?
war over scarce resources
Preventative check
ways that Malthus thought overpopulation can be prevented, delayed marriage, abstinence, restricting marriage of poor
What is an undercount?
when certain sub-populations are more likely to be left our of the Census count than other groups
What is a population health reversal?
when the health of a population declines, especially when life expectancy begins to decline
geography
where are older people living? where should policy efforts focus their energy?
Potential solutions to population aging
work in later life, reduce pensions, labor and finance policy, increase immigration, increase fertility
