Supply Chain ch 2 Forecasting and Demand Planning

No it is more accurate closer to the present since there are less variables. Example is a weather forecast is more accurate tomorrow compared to next week

Does forecasting get more accurate the further out you forecast?

True

Type: True or False Cause-and-Effect Models can have multiple independent variables.

False

Type: True or False Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment is the process of combining statistical forecasting techniques and judgment to construct demand estimates for products or services.

false

Type: True or False Forecasts are more accurate the farther out into the future that you forecast.

False

Type: True or False Independent Demand is demand for an item that is directly related to other items or finished products, such as a component or material used in making a finished product.?

True

Type: True or False The Qualitative forecasting method is based on opinion & intuition.

Personal Insight- expert in the field Jury of executive opinion- people who know the most form a panel Delphi method- jury but online Sales force estimation- getting sales people but it provides short sighted goals customer survey-_-

What are 3 of the 5 ways qualitative forecasting can be used

CPFR

What are the ways to help prevent the BullWhip effect

You better know josh

What is CPRF

is the need for a particular product or compartment The demand could come from various sources such as a customer order, a forecast, the manufacturing of another product, etc.

What is Demand

is the process of combining statistical forecasting techniques and judgment to construct demand estimates for products or services.

What is Demand Planning

Using mathematical models and historical data to make forecasts. -Time series -Naive forecasting -simple moving average -weighted average forecasting -exponential smoothing -linear trend forecasting

What is Quantitative forecasting

is an estimate of future demand.

What is a Forecast

is the business function that estimates future demand for products so that they can be purchased or manufactured in appropriate quantities in advance of need.

What is forecasting

It is forecasting based on opinion and gut feel usually used when data and budget is limited. It can be very accurate from an expert in the field but come with biases

What is qualitative forecasting?

Naïve method (correct)

Which one of the following is NOT a type of qualitative forecasting? -Jury of executive opinion -Naïve method -Consumer survey -Sales force composite

Mean Absolute Deviation (correct)

_______________________ measures the size of the forecast error in units. It is calculated as the average of the unsigned errors over a specified period of time.

Mean Absolute percent error= measures the error in percentage term

How about Mape

The Bullwhip Effect (correct)

In the absence of any other information or visibility, individual supply chain participants can begin second-guessing what is happening with ordering patterns, and potentially start over-reacting. This is known as? -Forecast Bias -The Bullwhip Effect -A Tracking Signal -The Running Sum of Forecast Errors

Mean squared error = another method of finding error

Now a curve ball... MSE?

When a small error creates a huge change down the supply chain. Like the whisper effect where you line up and tell a fact one end and it becomes distorted at the end.

What is the bullwhip effect

Think of your boss being Mad since he looked at your Mean Absolute Deviation and saw the size of your error

What is the stupid acronym MAD used for

Independent demand is the finished product that forecasted where Dependent demand is calculated since it is the raw materials that make up the final product

What the difference between Independent and Dependent demand

Seasonal Variation (correct)

When creating a quantitative forecast, data should be evaluated to detect for a repeating pattern of demand from year to year, or over some other time interval, with some periods of considerably higher demand than others. This is known as a? -Trend Variation -Random Variation -Seasonal Variation -Cyclical Variation