Thinking, Reasoning, and Decision-Making

Evidence from naturalistic studies of decision making reveal that when solving conditional probabilities most people recognize and use the ____ argument, but fail to use the ____ argument.

-Modus Ponens -Modus Tollens

The conditional proposition is "If it is a chair then it is a piece of furniture." Existing condition is that it is a piece of furniture. The inference made is that it is a chair. This particular type of fallacy is called what?

Affirming the consequent

Conjunction Fallacy

An individual gives a higher estimate for the probability of a subset of events rather than for the larger set of events, which contains the subset.

Propositions

Assertions that can be either true or false

The following is an example of a(n) ____: All animals breathe. All humans are animals. Therefore, all humans breathe.

Categorical Syllogism

The following is an example of what?: All animals breathe. All humans are animals. Therefore, all humans breathe

Categorical Syllogism

Modus Ponens

Denging consequences "if you are not this, you are therefore not that"

Reasoning

Drawing conclusions from several premises

Classical Decision Theory

Earliest models of decision making, developed by economists.

Many of the early models of classical decision theory were devised by who?

Economists

Algorithim

Formal, systematic method for problem solving

Deductive Reasoning

General rules/principles applied to specific observations and situations. No new information is added. Conclusions are from info that is implicit or implied

Wason Test

Given triplet "2, 4, 6" and asked for more triplets that follow the same rule Easier/quicker to falsify

Neuroscience of Decision Making

Higher activation in anterior cingulate cortex

Framing Effect

How questions are framed/worded influence our decisions

Conditional/Propositional Reasoning

If/Then relationship between conditions

Because of this, we tend to see particular attributes, categories, or events going together even though, in reality, they do not

Illusory Correlations

Which form of reasoning is used in solving verbal analogies?

Inductive

Heuristics

Mental shortcuts that help us solve problems (Information, quick, use what you already know)

Gambler's Fallacy

Mistaken belief that the probability of a given random event, such as winning or losing a game of chance, is influenced by previous random events

Availability Heuristic

Our evaluation of the likelihood of something occuring influenced by ease with which relevant instances come to mind

Anchoring/Adjustment Heuristic

People adjust their estimates depending on the starting values.

Base Rate

Prevalence of an event/characteristic within its population of events/characteristics

Representative Heuristic

Prior knowledge/stereotypes/beliefs about a scenario influences our decision making

Inductive Reasoning

Specific observations used to create more general principles. No new ideas are suggested. Results are not always correct/provable

Deductive arguments that involve drawing conclusions from two premises are referred to as ____

Syllogisms

Carl recently bought a used car—and it's a lemon. He has spent thousands of dollars on repairing the car, and this week, the mechanic told him it needs a new radiator. Carl thinks about how much money he has put into the car and thinks that, because he has invested so much money in repairs, he'd be better off just making the repair as opposed to spending money to buy a new car. Carl is a victim of what?

The Sunk-Cost Fallacy

Goal of Reasoning

To draw conclusions from principles and from evidence.

What is the primary use of judgment and decision making?

To select from among choices or evaluate opportunities

Syllogistic Reasoning

Two general premises that are assumed to be true and determine what (if any) valid conclusions can be made

Maier 1931

Two strings hanging from ceiling in room that do not reach each other. Participants needed a nudge to guide them towards the answer (swinging with a weight) or else they were unable to figure it out

Representativeness

We judge the probability of an uncertain event according to how obviously it is similar to the population which it is derived, and the degree to which it reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated

Confirmation Bias

We search for evidence consistent with out decisions, beliefs, or hypotheses

The fundamental distinction between deductive and inductive reasoning is that ____.

With inductive reasoning we can never reach a logically certain conclusion