Thinking, Reasoning, and Decision-Making
Evidence from naturalistic studies of decision making reveal that when solving conditional probabilities most people recognize and use the ____ argument, but fail to use the ____ argument.
-Modus Ponens -Modus Tollens
The conditional proposition is "If it is a chair then it is a piece of furniture." Existing condition is that it is a piece of furniture. The inference made is that it is a chair. This particular type of fallacy is called what?
Affirming the consequent
Conjunction Fallacy
An individual gives a higher estimate for the probability of a subset of events rather than for the larger set of events, which contains the subset.
Propositions
Assertions that can be either true or false
The following is an example of a(n) ____: All animals breathe. All humans are animals. Therefore, all humans breathe.
Categorical Syllogism
The following is an example of what?: All animals breathe. All humans are animals. Therefore, all humans breathe
Categorical Syllogism
Modus Ponens
Denging consequences "if you are not this, you are therefore not that"
Reasoning
Drawing conclusions from several premises
Classical Decision Theory
Earliest models of decision making, developed by economists.
Many of the early models of classical decision theory were devised by who?
Economists
Algorithim
Formal, systematic method for problem solving
Deductive Reasoning
General rules/principles applied to specific observations and situations. No new information is added. Conclusions are from info that is implicit or implied
Wason Test
Given triplet "2, 4, 6" and asked for more triplets that follow the same rule Easier/quicker to falsify
Neuroscience of Decision Making
Higher activation in anterior cingulate cortex
Framing Effect
How questions are framed/worded influence our decisions
Conditional/Propositional Reasoning
If/Then relationship between conditions
Because of this, we tend to see particular attributes, categories, or events going together even though, in reality, they do not
Illusory Correlations
Which form of reasoning is used in solving verbal analogies?
Inductive
Heuristics
Mental shortcuts that help us solve problems (Information, quick, use what you already know)
Gambler's Fallacy
Mistaken belief that the probability of a given random event, such as winning or losing a game of chance, is influenced by previous random events
Availability Heuristic
Our evaluation of the likelihood of something occuring influenced by ease with which relevant instances come to mind
Anchoring/Adjustment Heuristic
People adjust their estimates depending on the starting values.
Base Rate
Prevalence of an event/characteristic within its population of events/characteristics
Representative Heuristic
Prior knowledge/stereotypes/beliefs about a scenario influences our decision making
Inductive Reasoning
Specific observations used to create more general principles. No new ideas are suggested. Results are not always correct/provable
Deductive arguments that involve drawing conclusions from two premises are referred to as ____
Syllogisms
Carl recently bought a used car—and it's a lemon. He has spent thousands of dollars on repairing the car, and this week, the mechanic told him it needs a new radiator. Carl thinks about how much money he has put into the car and thinks that, because he has invested so much money in repairs, he'd be better off just making the repair as opposed to spending money to buy a new car. Carl is a victim of what?
The Sunk-Cost Fallacy
Goal of Reasoning
To draw conclusions from principles and from evidence.
What is the primary use of judgment and decision making?
To select from among choices or evaluate opportunities
Syllogistic Reasoning
Two general premises that are assumed to be true and determine what (if any) valid conclusions can be made
Maier 1931
Two strings hanging from ceiling in room that do not reach each other. Participants needed a nudge to guide them towards the answer (swinging with a weight) or else they were unable to figure it out
Representativeness
We judge the probability of an uncertain event according to how obviously it is similar to the population which it is derived, and the degree to which it reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated
Confirmation Bias
We search for evidence consistent with out decisions, beliefs, or hypotheses
The fundamental distinction between deductive and inductive reasoning is that ____.
With inductive reasoning we can never reach a logically certain conclusion