3: Developing Project Schedules and Budgets
Plan Driven Life Cycle
- reqs defined b/f work moves forward -all work delivered together at end -changes discouraged/rigid change control -key st.holders involved upfront and at key milestones
Definitive Estimate (What range?)
-5% to +10%
Product Owner
-Project representer/'voice of customer'/liaison -st.holders (cust, user, sponsor)/end recipient -ultimate authority on scope, funding -manage backlog w/ scrum master
Contingency Reserve
-a buffer against uncertainty to offset potential impact of IDENTIFIED risks should be clearly separated from actual estimates -can expand/contract/remove as project progresses -plan at activity level or larger group of tasks
Start to Start
-a successor activity cannot start until a predecessor activity has started -logic: start step 1 before step 2 ex. can't inspect before production begins
Estimating Costs
-activity costs -financing considerations -funding prerequisites -cash flow timing- purchases vs when money arrives -labor, material, facilities, equipment, cost of services -cost est. attached to items in WBS dictionary
Preparing Project Schedules
-activity list -Duration estimate -Sequence and priorities -milestones and baselines -dependencies
Monitor and Control (Agile)
-backlogs key to manage performance -list of features/acts that need to be developed/ completed before concluding project -iterative-> more chances to measure project -changes can be requested and implemented more quickly
Daily Standup
-brief full team, same place and time 1. Accomplished? 2. Today's work? 3. Any concerns? -Prod. owners not really participate -any new requirements and technical topics discussed outside of stand-up -facilitate/drive discussion, not micromanage
Milestone Charts
-catalog important dates/accomplishments in schedule -track both scheduled and actual start/end dates -spreadsheet style
Initiate (Agile)
-charter revisited regularly, modified to match nusiness case -continuous feedback from key st.holders->work and objs remain aligned
Sprint Planning Meeting
-choose work items from backlog, from which you can add, remove, change items w/ prod. owner -progressive elaboration of reqs -sticky notes or software tools like Kanban or JIRA -link action items =desired result (User stories), other docs
Team members
-complete backlog items -sign up for tasks based on skill and activity priority -determine themselves which tasks to work on -autonomously managed -set own estimates to full sprint duration
Plan (Agile)
-consistently adapt to shifting objs -plan high-level early on and add detail shortly before start the work
Scrum Master
-coordinate team work on sprints, remove distractions, empower -Facilitate Progress
Cost expressed as
-currency (global considerations or standardized) -staff hours/days
Discretionary Dependencies
-desirable, best practice, preferences -may be b/c of rsc availibility -soft logic
Parametric
-develop a formula w/ parameters and past data -quality of data and sophistication of model key factors -assumes similar deadlines, resources, specs, labor effort and cost, geography -else develop model to account for differences -precise -economies of scale (cost est.)
Planned Value (PV)
-estimated work package cost
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
-heaviest weight on most-likely tE = (tO + 4tM + tP)/6; -divide by 6 b/c 1+4+1 to account for added weight
Links to Project Planning Assets
-how WBS indicates structure of schedule framework? -Assets that impact scheduling? -unified documentation
Burn Rate
-how quicly funds depleted
Units of Measure
-how resources are measured ex. staff time in hours, days, weeks, etc.
Actual Cost (AC)
-incurred in completing work, same standard as PV
Sprint Planning
-iterations which result in deliverables/clearly defined component -short, agreed amount of time (usually 2 weeks)
Closing (Agile)
-iterative nature-> less value lost if work prematurely closed -residual value more likely to exist -tangible results at end of each sprint
Maintanence
-keeping schedule up to date -procedures for updates and progress reports
Cost options
-make/procure -buy/lease/rent
Sequencing activities
-necessary or optimal for quality, risk, duration -all but first and last have a Predecessor and Successor -can have multiple '' and '' w/ varying relationships
Cost Variance (CV)
-negative-> over budget -positive->under budget =EV-AC Ex. 50% of $735 proj done, spent $349 (AC) EV=50% of 735 = $367.5 CV = 367.5 -349= $18.5 under budget
Management Reserves
-offset for UNIDENTIFIED risks -allows unforseen IN SCOPE work to be completed -modify baseline if used
Finish to Start
-predecessor completely finished b/f activity(successor) begins -most common -logic: step 1 must be complete b/f step 2 can begin ex. lay foundation-> build house
Estimation
-progressively elaborate and refine overtime -Act. Rsc. Est: work effort required, which resources to use + -Duration Est.:how long options take to complete --> which resources should be utilized and work effort required
Earned Value Management (EVM)
-project expenses vs value creation -over vs under budget -ahead or behind schedule
Iterative/Incremental Life Cycle
-reqs defined and revised at regular intervals -results delivered incrementally maybe -changes discussed and implemented at regular intervals -key st.holders involved at regualr intervals
Agile Life Cycle
-reqs frequently/continuously defined -results delivered as componenets completed -changes incorporated real-time -key st.holders involved continuously
Mandatory dependencies
-required by law or contract, nature of work -hard logic
Fast-Tracking
-reschedule sequential tasks to overlap -discretionary dependencies -low risk to fast track an activity preceding (comes before) a higher risk activity-> more contingency time
Crashing
-shorten project duration by adding more resources (overtime, expedited delivery) -use only when necessary and affordable - delays can add activities to critical path -higher cost and risk -potential lower quality -truly limited resources can't crash effectively
Finish to Finish
-successor can not end until pred. end -logic: step 2 can't end b/f step 1 ex. can't submit to appstore until app is compiled
Monte Carlo
-thousands of simulations of project work -contingency levels developed w/ some degree of confidence -standard deviations
Tracking Expenses
-unified, documented process -account code, category, key dates, estimated vs actual costs, cost variance
Baseline development
-use to measure performance with ground rules for spend/budgeting -expenditure approval, cost triggers, budgetary authority levels -how and by whom track expenses -PM accountable regardless -up to certain level can undertake expenses b/f need additional approval -include est. costs + contingency reserves (but not mgmt res.s)
Burndown charts
-visualize progress during sprint vs. plans -realtime feedback -remaining sprint time vs est. duration of remaining work -remaining days (Y) vs Sprint days completed (X) -if planned item line above completed, then ahead -work not done in retrospective and next sprint
Critical Path Method
-visualize work and identifies most critical activities -show when action is required if fall behind schedule -Longest Direct line of duration plotted = shortest total time to complete project -if CP acts delay, then whole project delayed
Gantt Charts
-visualize work on a linear time scale -determine how processes relate in time -help allocate resources, determine potential challenges, constraints -time on X, activity # on Y
Triangular Distribution
-weighs all three equally tE = (tO + tM + tP)/3; where tE is time expected
Execute (Agile)
-work completed in iterations -sprints, with a reset/retrospective to determine next objs -regular progress and opportunities for review-> track against long and short term targets
Activity list
-work package decomposed into individual activities
Estimation to Completion (ETC)
= (BAC - EV)/CPI -how much more to get to end given current performance? BAC = budget at completion/total projected budget Ex. budget = $100 Created EV = $60 Cost = $75 CPI = 6/7.5 = .8 =100-60/.8 = $5,000 left to complete
CPI (Cost Performance Index)
=EV / AC (earned value divided by actual cost) -on budget? <1.0 = over budget/run to date >1.0 = under run to date Ex. 55% of $460 project completed, spend $257 = AC 55% of 460 = $253 = EV =253/257 = .984, slightly over budget
Schedule Variance (SV)
=EV-PV -negative-> behind schedule -positive-> ahead Ex. 6mos into a 12mo project (50% of schedule); 1.2mil -$400K created EV PV = 50% of budget = $600k SV = 400-600 = $200k behind schedule
SPI (schedule performance index)
=EV/PV <1.0 = less complete than planned >1.0 = more done 40% after 7mos, total done in next 8 mos 7+8=15 mos duration PV=7/15 = 46.67% EV = 40% =40/46.67 = 0.857, less complete than expected
Precedence diagraming
A graphic presentation of a schedule depicting project activities on a node with an arrow that depicts the dependencies that exist between the activities. -numbers indicate lead or lag between work preferred
Start to Finish
A successor activity cannot finish until a predecessor activity has started -least common -logic: step 2 can't end before step 1 starts -can't finish second shift before first shift starts
Retrospectives
At end of sprints, ALL participate -work done -planned but incomplete -what to carry into next sprint -overall progress -lessons learned/takeaways
Project Budget =
Cost Baseline + Mgmt Reserves
Schedule and budget
Created and maintained together, as a pair
Rules of Performance Measurement
Earned Value techniques (%, baseline) to use? -establishing completion percentages
Resource calendar
Identifies the working days and shifts on which each specific resource is available. Specifies when and how long the identified project resources will be available -geographic considerations -productivity information -quality data
Activity on Node
Numbers on nodes and duration times in rectangles and/or lines
Level of Accuracy
The acceptable range used in determining realistic activity duration estimates is specified and may include an amount for contingencies.
Reporting formats
The formats and frequency for the various cost reports are defined
Earned Value (EV)
The value of the work completed to date compared to the budgeted amount -usually a % of work completed ex. 40% done, $10k PV at completion EV = 40% of 10k = $4k
Analogous Estimation
Use historical data from similar projects/activities -relies on parameters: duration, budget, size, complexity +less costly and time-consuming -less accuracy, unless substantial similarity -can use composite of factors from different projects -useful when specifics not known
Control Thresholds
What level of variation is considered outside of control, thus action needed?
rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimate
about -25% to 75%
Lead
amount of time activity may be moved up in schedule (Compression); FS - 3 (finsih to start -3) - work begins closer to predeccesor
Float/Slack
flexibility from activities not on CP
Three Point Estimating
gathers three estimates; most likely, optimistic, and pessimistic
Backlog
list of activities to complete; oer time take activities into active work lists
Scheduling
methodology, approach, tools?
external dependencies
relation b/w proj and non-project teams (client or service provider)
Internal dependencies
relationships b/w defined projects, activities
Lag
time that must pass until successor can start (ex. FS +3) -schedule bottle necks