3: Developing Project Schedules and Budgets

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Plan Driven Life Cycle

- reqs defined b/f work moves forward -all work delivered together at end -changes discouraged/rigid change control -key st.holders involved upfront and at key milestones

Definitive Estimate (What range?)

-5% to +10%

Product Owner

-Project representer/'voice of customer'/liaison -st.holders (cust, user, sponsor)/end recipient -ultimate authority on scope, funding -manage backlog w/ scrum master

Contingency Reserve

-a buffer against uncertainty to offset potential impact of IDENTIFIED risks should be clearly separated from actual estimates -can expand/contract/remove as project progresses -plan at activity level or larger group of tasks

Start to Start

-a successor activity cannot start until a predecessor activity has started -logic: start step 1 before step 2 ex. can't inspect before production begins

Estimating Costs

-activity costs -financing considerations -funding prerequisites -cash flow timing- purchases vs when money arrives -labor, material, facilities, equipment, cost of services -cost est. attached to items in WBS dictionary

Preparing Project Schedules

-activity list -Duration estimate -Sequence and priorities -milestones and baselines -dependencies

Monitor and Control (Agile)

-backlogs key to manage performance -list of features/acts that need to be developed/ completed before concluding project -iterative-> more chances to measure project -changes can be requested and implemented more quickly

Daily Standup

-brief full team, same place and time 1. Accomplished? 2. Today's work? 3. Any concerns? -Prod. owners not really participate -any new requirements and technical topics discussed outside of stand-up -facilitate/drive discussion, not micromanage

Milestone Charts

-catalog important dates/accomplishments in schedule -track both scheduled and actual start/end dates -spreadsheet style

Initiate (Agile)

-charter revisited regularly, modified to match nusiness case -continuous feedback from key st.holders->work and objs remain aligned

Sprint Planning Meeting

-choose work items from backlog, from which you can add, remove, change items w/ prod. owner -progressive elaboration of reqs -sticky notes or software tools like Kanban or JIRA -link action items =desired result (User stories), other docs

Team members

-complete backlog items -sign up for tasks based on skill and activity priority -determine themselves which tasks to work on -autonomously managed -set own estimates to full sprint duration

Plan (Agile)

-consistently adapt to shifting objs -plan high-level early on and add detail shortly before start the work

Scrum Master

-coordinate team work on sprints, remove distractions, empower -Facilitate Progress

Cost expressed as

-currency (global considerations or standardized) -staff hours/days

Discretionary Dependencies

-desirable, best practice, preferences -may be b/c of rsc availibility -soft logic

Parametric

-develop a formula w/ parameters and past data -quality of data and sophistication of model key factors -assumes similar deadlines, resources, specs, labor effort and cost, geography -else develop model to account for differences -precise -economies of scale (cost est.)

Planned Value (PV)

-estimated work package cost

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)

-heaviest weight on most-likely tE = (tO + 4tM + tP)/6; -divide by 6 b/c 1+4+1 to account for added weight

Links to Project Planning Assets

-how WBS indicates structure of schedule framework? -Assets that impact scheduling? -unified documentation

Burn Rate

-how quicly funds depleted

Units of Measure

-how resources are measured ex. staff time in hours, days, weeks, etc.

Actual Cost (AC)

-incurred in completing work, same standard as PV

Sprint Planning

-iterations which result in deliverables/clearly defined component -short, agreed amount of time (usually 2 weeks)

Closing (Agile)

-iterative nature-> less value lost if work prematurely closed -residual value more likely to exist -tangible results at end of each sprint

Maintanence

-keeping schedule up to date -procedures for updates and progress reports

Cost options

-make/procure -buy/lease/rent

Sequencing activities

-necessary or optimal for quality, risk, duration -all but first and last have a Predecessor and Successor -can have multiple '' and '' w/ varying relationships

Cost Variance (CV)

-negative-> over budget -positive->under budget =EV-AC Ex. 50% of $735 proj done, spent $349 (AC) EV=50% of 735 = $367.5 CV = 367.5 -349= $18.5 under budget

Management Reserves

-offset for UNIDENTIFIED risks -allows unforseen IN SCOPE work to be completed -modify baseline if used

Finish to Start

-predecessor completely finished b/f activity(successor) begins -most common -logic: step 1 must be complete b/f step 2 can begin ex. lay foundation-> build house

Estimation

-progressively elaborate and refine overtime -Act. Rsc. Est: work effort required, which resources to use + -Duration Est.:how long options take to complete --> which resources should be utilized and work effort required

Earned Value Management (EVM)

-project expenses vs value creation -over vs under budget -ahead or behind schedule

Iterative/Incremental Life Cycle

-reqs defined and revised at regular intervals -results delivered incrementally maybe -changes discussed and implemented at regular intervals -key st.holders involved at regualr intervals

Agile Life Cycle

-reqs frequently/continuously defined -results delivered as componenets completed -changes incorporated real-time -key st.holders involved continuously

Mandatory dependencies

-required by law or contract, nature of work -hard logic

Fast-Tracking

-reschedule sequential tasks to overlap -discretionary dependencies -low risk to fast track an activity preceding (comes before) a higher risk activity-> more contingency time

Crashing

-shorten project duration by adding more resources (overtime, expedited delivery) -use only when necessary and affordable - delays can add activities to critical path -higher cost and risk -potential lower quality -truly limited resources can't crash effectively

Finish to Finish

-successor can not end until pred. end -logic: step 2 can't end b/f step 1 ex. can't submit to appstore until app is compiled

Monte Carlo

-thousands of simulations of project work -contingency levels developed w/ some degree of confidence -standard deviations

Tracking Expenses

-unified, documented process -account code, category, key dates, estimated vs actual costs, cost variance

Baseline development

-use to measure performance with ground rules for spend/budgeting -expenditure approval, cost triggers, budgetary authority levels -how and by whom track expenses -PM accountable regardless -up to certain level can undertake expenses b/f need additional approval -include est. costs + contingency reserves (but not mgmt res.s)

Burndown charts

-visualize progress during sprint vs. plans -realtime feedback -remaining sprint time vs est. duration of remaining work -remaining days (Y) vs Sprint days completed (X) -if planned item line above completed, then ahead -work not done in retrospective and next sprint

Critical Path Method

-visualize work and identifies most critical activities -show when action is required if fall behind schedule -Longest Direct line of duration plotted = shortest total time to complete project -if CP acts delay, then whole project delayed

Gantt Charts

-visualize work on a linear time scale -determine how processes relate in time -help allocate resources, determine potential challenges, constraints -time on X, activity # on Y

Triangular Distribution

-weighs all three equally tE = (tO + tM + tP)/3; where tE is time expected

Execute (Agile)

-work completed in iterations -sprints, with a reset/retrospective to determine next objs -regular progress and opportunities for review-> track against long and short term targets

Activity list

-work package decomposed into individual activities

Estimation to Completion (ETC)

= (BAC - EV)/CPI -how much more to get to end given current performance? BAC = budget at completion/total projected budget Ex. budget = $100 Created EV = $60 Cost = $75 CPI = 6/7.5 = .8 =100-60/.8 = $5,000 left to complete

CPI (Cost Performance Index)

=EV / AC (earned value divided by actual cost) -on budget? <1.0 = over budget/run to date >1.0 = under run to date Ex. 55% of $460 project completed, spend $257 = AC 55% of 460 = $253 = EV =253/257 = .984, slightly over budget

Schedule Variance (SV)

=EV-PV -negative-> behind schedule -positive-> ahead Ex. 6mos into a 12mo project (50% of schedule); 1.2mil -$400K created EV PV = 50% of budget = $600k SV = 400-600 = $200k behind schedule

SPI (schedule performance index)

=EV/PV <1.0 = less complete than planned >1.0 = more done 40% after 7mos, total done in next 8 mos 7+8=15 mos duration PV=7/15 = 46.67% EV = 40% =40/46.67 = 0.857, less complete than expected

Precedence diagraming

A graphic presentation of a schedule depicting project activities on a node with an arrow that depicts the dependencies that exist between the activities. -numbers indicate lead or lag between work preferred

Start to Finish

A successor activity cannot finish until a predecessor activity has started -least common -logic: step 2 can't end before step 1 starts -can't finish second shift before first shift starts

Retrospectives

At end of sprints, ALL participate -work done -planned but incomplete -what to carry into next sprint -overall progress -lessons learned/takeaways

Project Budget =

Cost Baseline + Mgmt Reserves

Schedule and budget

Created and maintained together, as a pair

Rules of Performance Measurement

Earned Value techniques (%, baseline) to use? -establishing completion percentages

Resource calendar

Identifies the working days and shifts on which each specific resource is available. Specifies when and how long the identified project resources will be available -geographic considerations -productivity information -quality data

Activity on Node

Numbers on nodes and duration times in rectangles and/or lines

Level of Accuracy

The acceptable range used in determining realistic activity duration estimates is specified and may include an amount for contingencies.

Reporting formats

The formats and frequency for the various cost reports are defined

Earned Value (EV)

The value of the work completed to date compared to the budgeted amount -usually a % of work completed ex. 40% done, $10k PV at completion EV = 40% of 10k = $4k

Analogous Estimation

Use historical data from similar projects/activities -relies on parameters: duration, budget, size, complexity +less costly and time-consuming -less accuracy, unless substantial similarity -can use composite of factors from different projects -useful when specifics not known

Control Thresholds

What level of variation is considered outside of control, thus action needed?

rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimate

about -25% to 75%

Lead

amount of time activity may be moved up in schedule (Compression); FS - 3 (finsih to start -3) - work begins closer to predeccesor

Float/Slack

flexibility from activities not on CP

Three Point Estimating

gathers three estimates; most likely, optimistic, and pessimistic

Backlog

list of activities to complete; oer time take activities into active work lists

Scheduling

methodology, approach, tools?

external dependencies

relation b/w proj and non-project teams (client or service provider)

Internal dependencies

relationships b/w defined projects, activities

Lag

time that must pass until successor can start (ex. FS +3) -schedule bottle necks


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